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Indianapolis Colts +3.5
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The Indianapolis Colts are showing great value as a 3.5-point underdog at Tennessee Sunday. I believe the Colts are the better team here and would have them as at least a 3-point favorite on a neutral field. There is a good chance this game is decided by a field goal or less, which is why I'll take the points for some insurance even though Indy likely wins outright.
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The Colts are 3-3 this season with two very good wins over the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. This team ranks 15th in the league in total offense (359.0 yards/game) and 16th in total defense (352.3 yards/game), so they are improved on both sides of the ball. I have Indianapolis pegged right in the middle of the pack in my NFL power rankings.
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The Tennessee Titans are one of the worst teams in the NFL according to my power rankings. They have won three games this season, but all three of those victories came by 3 points or less. The Titans are scoring just 21.3 points/game while ranking 26th in total offense (324.9 yards/game), and they are allowing 34.0 points/game while ranking 30th in total defense (416.1 yards/game). As you can see, they are getting outgained by roughly 91 yards/game, which is more indicative of a 1-6 team rather than one that is 3-4.
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The Titans are 12-29 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. Tennessee is 0-6 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Indianapolis is 27-13 ATS in road games after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992. Bet the Colts Sunday.
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New England Patriots -7
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The Rams, who are among the worst offensive teams in the NFL, don't have the fire power to keep pace with New England, which leads the league in both scoring and total offense, in this neutral field battle. The Rams are on a 0-8 ATS slide when playing away from home versus good offensive teams that score 27 points or more per game. They have lost to these teams by an average of 21.5 points. St. Louis is also just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games played away from home versus teams that complete 64% or more their passes. It has lost in these spots by an average of 20.7 points. Teams coach by Jeff Fisher have always had issues against good passing teams. In fact, teams headed up by Fisher are only 9-21 ATS versus excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game. His squads have lost in these spots by an average of 8.5 points. Bet the Pats.
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Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City ChiefsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chiefs have slightly better numbers on both sides of the ball and Quinn, should he play for Cassel should be much more prepared having had the bye week to prepare. Oakland is 0-3 getting outscored 31-13 on the road this season. The Raiders are 0-7 straight up on the road when the total is 38.5 to 42 and 27-62 ats vs losing teams. The Chiefs are 7-3 ats in October and have home loss revenge. The Chiefs are 12-2 ats at home vs Division teams if they allowed 35 or more in their last game, they are also 14-2 ats as a division favorite of -1 to a dog with revenge if off a loss. Take the Chiefs. On Sunday we end the Week big with the 100% Perfect AFC Game of the Year with a System that dates to 1979. We also have a 19-0 Totals Angle, a 3 Teams 10 Point teaer all 3 teams in perfect angles and the Rare Sunday night Football System side that has not lost under these circumstances. Game 4 World series sequence scenario System too. NFL on a 12-4 run cashing 6 of the last 7 Prime time games as the record is now 34 games over. 500 the last 3+ seasons. End the week big jump on now. For the free play take the Kansas City Chiefs. RV
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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Pick: Tennessee TitansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colts have won 2 of 3 but those were at home. Tennessee has come to life after dropping their few games in poor style team won Thursday night vs Pittsburgh and then rallied to beat Buffalo. Tennessee seems to believing in the system. The Colts can be entertaining with QB Luck but but Tennessee has the horses to win.
Jim Feist
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Pick: Chicago Bears
Carolina has been a bust at 1-5 and winless on the road. The defense has a ton of injuries (like last year) and the dysfunctional offense revolves around a QB who simply isn't getting any better behind Cam Newton. The Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. He's a run-first QB and unfortunately they face the top run defense in the NFL. Chicago allows just 71 yards rushing per game and has won 4 in a row allowing 6, 18, 3 and 7 points! The Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and they are a perfect 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) at home this season. Play the Bears.
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Detroit -2.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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First off, even though I am a season ticket holder I am no Lions homer. One of our best bets this season was on the Titans over the Lions, BEFORE Detroit went into the shitter. The Lions played HORRIBLE versus the Chicago Bears and still could have won the game outright. Calvin Johnson was non-existent in the loss, but the the Lions still managed to put up 340 yards of offense. Stafford and Johnson will have a big game in front of the home town crowd. Ford Field is a VERY LOUD place to play in and will be a factor in keeping the Seahawks offense out of sync. Lions win this one by at least a TD.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee TitansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Titans are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs the Colts. Indy clearly a different team on the road as they have been blitzed by the Jets (35-9)and then the Bears back in early September (41-21). RB Chris Johnson had a huge game last week and looks to be finally breaking out. Maybe the arrival of veteran QB Hasselbeck in the backfield with him is a help. So we have CJ off a huge game, and here at home he gets to face a Colts run defense that is giving up 140 yards on the ground a game. Sounds like a recipe to a winner this afternoon.
Larry Ness
Seattle vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
The Lions ended a playoff drought which had gone back to 1999 when they went 10-6 last year (lost at New Orleans in the wild card round). However, history says a second straight trip to the postseason is highly unlikely for Detroit, which h sits at 2-4 through Week 7. Only 18 of the 208 teams that started the season with the same record have made the playoffs (since 1990), most recently accomplished by Tim Tebow-led Denver last season. And we KNOW this, Matthew Stafford is no Tim Tebow.
Afrter all, in a 2011 season in which both Brees and Brady broke Dan Marino's single-season passing yards record (and Rodgers was the league’s MVP by setting a single-season QB rating mark of 122.5 with 4,643 yards plus 45 TDs against only six INTs), Stafford ‘quietly’ threw for 5,038 yards with 41 TDs and a modest 16 INTs. Stafford joined Dan Marino and Drew Brees as the only players to pass for more than 5,000 yards plus throw 40 TDs in the same season. Tebow couldn’t have a season like that, if he played against Pop Warner teams but then again, all Tebow does is win. All right, enough of the Tebow bashing. As Bill Parcells famously says, “you are what your record says you are.” For Detroit, that’s 2-4. Stafford is playing nowhere NEAR like he did in 2011, with just five TD passes after six games (had 41 last year!). The running game is non-existent, averaging 99.3 YPG on 4.1 YPC and last Monday night at Chicago, the Lions suffered three giveaways inside the 20. That gives Detroit an NFL-worst five red-zone turnovers, after having just THREE all of last season. Here’s a stat to make Detroit fans shudder. Stafford is the only starting NFL quarterback without a first-half TD pass in 2012. He is also tied for the most first-half interceptions with five.
As for Seattle, the Seahawks are 4-3, a record which includes wins over Dallas, Green Bay and New England. Those wins have come at home though, as the Seahawks are 1-3 SU on the road, winning only at ‘imploding’ Carolina (more on that in a bit). The Seahawks have played excellent defense in 2012 but the team is being held back by its offense. Rookie QB Russell Wilson completes 59.4% with eight TDs and seven INTs (79.5 QB rating). The Seahawks are averaging 161.9 YPG through the air, a mark better than only Jacksonville. The team averages 293.6 YPG overall (ranks 30th), while scoring 16.6 PPG, a figure which ranks 31st. I mentioned Detroit’s red zone woes, so let’s look at Seattle’s trips inside the 20-yard line. Despite coming away with points on 16 of their 18 trips to the red zone, Seattle has scored a TD only a third of the time, the NFC's worst success rate. Just two of Wilson's TD passes have come on the road (against seven INTs) and NINE of Seattle's total of 11 giveaways in 2012 have come in the team's four road games. That’s a MAJOR reason why the team is 1-3 away from home this season and just 6-15 on the road since Carroll took over in 2010 (including a postseason loss at Chicago). Note that Seattle has lost those 15 road games by an average margin of 13.7 PPG and that not a SINGLE loss has come by less than three points. It’s been a tough start to the 2012 season for the lions but I look for them to win (and cover) in this one.
Teddy Covers
Carolina vs. Chicago
Pick: Carolina
Carolina is 1-5 this year, coming off the heels of a 6-10 campaign last season. But the Panthers certainly aren’t a case of total ineptitude – they’re in almost every game right through the final gun. Rather, the Panthers problem in the Ron Rivera/Cam Newton era has been the inability to win tight games. They’re 0-4 this year in games decided by a TD or less, much like last year when the Panthers went 1-5 in close games.
That record includes a tight, spread covering five point loss right here at Soldier Field against the Bears; a game in which the Panthers offense rolled up more than 500 yards of offense, outgaining the Bears by a full 225 yards! Match Carolina up against a +7.5 pointspread and we’re talking about a team that is 16-6 ATS in the first 22 games of the Newton/Rivera era. Quite simply, this pointspread is a notch or two too high.
The Bears are not a strong offensive team right now. Their point totals have been padded by five defensive scores in their last four games. After scoring on their opening drive against Detroit on Monday Night, they were held out of the end zone for the next 56 minutes. Jay Cutler’s got bad ribs; Brandon Marshall has more receptions than the rest of the WR’s on the roster combined and Matt Forte has just one TD this year. And Chicago is in a very flat spot here; on a short week off a national TV divisional win, facing a 1-5 foe that they beat last year. That’s not the recipe for ATS success as a favorite of more than a touchdown!
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Green Bay Packers -14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Green Bay Packers should have no problem covering this two-touchdown spread against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars simply won't be able to keep pace on the scoreboard against this high-powered Green Bay attack that it hitting on all cylinders over the last few weeks. The Packers have scored an average of 36.0 points in road wins over the Texans and Rams the last two weeks, who both features two of the top defenses in the league. The Jaguars are giving up 27.3 points/game while ranking 28th in total defense at 411.8 yards/game allowed. The Packers should have no problem getting 36-plus against this defense. However, Jacksonville's biggest problem is its stagnant offense. The Jaguars are only averaging 14.7 points while ranking 32nd in the league in total offense at 235.8 yards/game. Now, their offense is going to be without its best player in Maurice Jones-Drew, who is out with a foot injury. Green Bay is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a 2 game road trip over the last 3 seasons. The Jaguars are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. The Packers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games. Take Green Bay and lay the points.
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Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears
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The Panthers have been beaten and battered by opponents and the media. Now Cam Newton and the Panthers go up against the Bears who are everyone's darling in the NFC right now. There is a ton of value on the Panthers in this spot as the oddsmakers know everyone will now be on the Bears. I'm perfect betting on or against the Panthers this year and I think this will continue with today's free play. Look for this to be a low scoring game. Ron Rivera, the head coach from Carolina also may have an advantage as he was the defensive coordinator for 3 years and knows their system. Cutler is behind an offensive line that you never know when they may have a poor game. So I expect the Panthers to be in this game.
Dave Cokin
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Pick: Oakland Raiders
Both teams are terrible, but it looks like the Chiefs are even worse than Oakland at this point. Brady Quinn is starting at QB and is favored? Okay. I'll try my luck with the Raiders.
Andy IskoeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay -14.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Key injuries to Jacksonville RB Jones-Drew and QB Gabbert have this game off the board at press time but expect the Packers to be a huge favorite of 14 points or so. They return home following a 3 game road trip that saw them win the last 2 (at Houston and St Louis) as the offense regained its rhythm. Bad teams find ways to lose games they should win and such was the case last week when Jacksonville blew a late lead at Oakland. Off of their Bye the Jaguars put a lot of effort into that game but came up empty. The Packers need to make up ground in the very contentious NFC North and the 1-5 Jaguars are not a team capable of slowing down the Green Bay offense or trading points. The Jags rank last in total offense and #28 in total defense. Green Bay's defense is much improved over last season (#14) and the offense has been the NFL's best at avoiding turnovers (0.9 per game).
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Tennessee Titans over Indianapolis Colts
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After weathering a brutal schedule the first few weeks of the season the Titans are in reasonable shape at 3-4 after a miracle comeback last week in Buffalo. Believe it or not but the winner of this game will be a viable player in the AFC wild card picture as the schedules ahead for both squads are favorable. The Titans own the worst point differential in the NFL but the offense is starting to click with Chris Johnson breaking out last week and Matt Hasselbeck providing good leadership. With back-to-back wins the Titans can even their record as the strong start for the Colts has featured all three wins at home and two lopsided road losses. Indianapolis has covered in just four of the last 12 meetings in this division series and this could be a challenging spot for Indianapolis.
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Dolphins / Jets Under 38.5
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I took the Under on the game between these two teams in Miami and we only lost it because the game went to overtime. On a similar matchup and with the weather being clearly worse today (rainy and windy day), I believe we have once have the ingredients for a very low scoring game in here. Mark Sanchez is coming from a decent game in New England last week, but he keeps being an overall poor quarterback with the clear inability of having a high percentage of completions. Now against a good Dolphins defense, who is coming from a bye week, I expect Sanchez to heavily struggle today against a team that has been quite good in stopping the opposing quarterbacks this season. And if Miami has been good against the pass, they are the best team in the league in stopping the run with just 3.3 rushing yards allowed per carry, so I really expect the Jets offense to have any kind of decent production today against a very good overall defensive team, who is coming from a bye week.
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The problem with Miami is that their offense isn't looking good neither. Ryan Tannehill has been having some normal issues for a rookie quarterback and in a rainy and windy day, I don't expect him to have a good game against a team that even though they lost their best secondary player in Darrelle Revis, they are still a top 10 team against the pass. On the other hand, Daniel Thomas is returning to the field today, but Miami's running game has been regressing big time over the last few weeks after a very good start of the season. I know the Jets doesn't have a good run defense, but Miami is now just #24 on running game efficiency with 3.8 rushing yards per carry, so I don't expect the Dolphins to have a huge game on the running game today.
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I believe this game will easily turn into a very physical divisional game, with both teams fighting on the field for the win. I believe both teams will use their running game a lot today, while both defenses will outplay both struggling offenses, therefore I expect this game to quickly turn into a low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.