RICH SPORTS
Cleveland + 3
The Chargers have been a turn over machine of late and I can only expect that to continue today as the weather may be wet and cold. Surprisingly the Browns are averaging more passing yards than the Chargers this year. The Chargers are 0 – 4 ATS in their last 4 October games. The Browns are 7 – 0 ATS the game after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Jeff Scott Sports
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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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PHILADELPHIA -3 over Atlanta: This is a really good spot for them to get back on track. I feel the change on defense will energize this group a bit. Philly hasn’t been too bad defensively but they have blown some 4th quarter leads and that is the main reason for the change. Atlanta can’t run the ball (28th) and that should allow this very talented Eagle secondary to clamp down on a very good Atlanta passing game. Really the Falcons havn’t faced a good defense this year and I expect them to have a tough time moving the ball on this Eagles defense that has had a week to get used to the schemes that Todd Bowles will employ. Another advantage there is that the Eagles knowq what they will run, but Atlanta has no clue what’s coming. On offense the Eagles should be able to move the ball and I feel that after the Bye they will start to cut down on their mistakes. The Atlanta defense has been poor vs the run (143 ypg, 5.2 ypc) and that should allow Vick and McCoy do some damage, which will then open up the throwing lanes for this talent WR corps to get some big plays downfield. Andy Reid has worked some magic after a Bye and I feel he will do so again hrere. Atlanta loses first game of the year in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any home favorite if both teams are off a Bye week. Teams in this spot are 15-3 ATS since 2001 and have outscored their opponents by 13 ppg.
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New York Giants -2 over DALLAS: The Cowboys are not really playing good ball these days and I feel the Giants can take advantage. Dallas needs their running game to take the pressure off of Romo, but they will be missing a key part of their run game as Demarco Murray will not be available for this one. That will allow a solid Giants pass rush to harass Romo into some mistakes. The Dallas defense has been solid this year, but they have had problems with Manning at home, as Eli has thrown for 354 ypg and 8 TD's in his last 3 trips here. The Giants lost game vs Dallas this year, but they were very thin in the secondary in that game and are a bit healthier for this one. Look for the Giants to get a measure of revenge with a big win in Big D.
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Philadelphia/ Atlanta Under 43: This game should be mess with a hurricane just off the coast. Lots of wind and rain and that should keep the scoring down. Also keeping the scoring is the fact that there is two pretty good defenses on the field. The Atlanta defense is 22 overall but they allow just 18.8 ppg, which is 6th in the league. The Falcons struggle vs the run (28th) and with high winds and a turnover prone QB you can bet that Reid will look run the ball at that soft run defense of the Falcons and that will eat plenty of clock. The Falcons on offense need to throw the ball, because they can't run the ball (29th in the league), but in the conditions that are expected Matt Ryan will have a problem connecting for some big plays. Atlanta will have to try and run the ball and that will also chew up some clock. This game will struggle to hit the mid 30's.
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PITTSBURGH -4 over Washington: The Steelers played very good defense vs the the Cincinnati and I feel they can do it again in this one. There could be potential for bad weather in this game with high winds and that could very well slow down the Washington pass game. The Skins are the top rushing team in the league, but they are about to face the 9th ranked rushing defense of the Steelers so that run game should struggle as well. The Steelers also rank 2nd vs the pass so this Washington offense could be in for a long day. On the other side the Pittsburgh offense has been decent this year but the do struggle to run the ball (26th). They will get back Mendenhall for this one and that will help. Once the running game gets going then Big Ben should have some easy throws vs the worst ranked pass defense in the league. The Pittsburgh defense will will not allow Washington to put enough points on the board to keep this one close.
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Detroit/ Seattle Under 42.5: This Detroit offense can be explosive, but this year something seems off. In the last 5 weeks the Lions have scored less than 20 points 3 times, while overall they are averaging just 22.2 ppg, which is a full TD less than they averaged last year. Now they take on a Seattle defense that is 5th in the league (287.3 ypg) overall and 3rd in scoring (15.1 ppg). This defense has played very tough this year and I feel this inconsistent Lions offense will have problems moving the ball on them. As good as the Seattle defense has been, the offense has been bad. Seattle is 31st in total offense, passing and scoring and those ranking may not get that much better as the Lions are ranked 8th in total defense. The Lions do struggle a little vs the run and that is a strength of the Seattle offense as they are 8th in the league in running the ball. This should be a low scoring tight ball as both defenses are playing better than the offenses right now.
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Washington vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There has been a different feel to Washington's games since RG3 appeared on the scene. That's also been reflected in the "totals" efforts of the Redskins, who are now "over" 9-5 in their last 14 games, a trend that surfaced midway through last season, while Griffin was still at Baylor. Washington has been held under 23 points just once this season, and that was vs. the Falcons when Griffin was KO'd for part of the game. Expect more fireworks this afternoon in Pittsburgh vs. a Steelers defense that has been battling through injury problems all season. And speaking of injuries, the Skins "D" is down several starters itself, and looks vulnerable vs. a Pittsburgh "O" that rediscovered its ground game (167 YR) last week vs. the Bengals. This affair figures to be a lively one at Heinz Field and clear the modest "total" of 44 in the process. Play Redskins-Steeelers "Over"
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Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Atlanta FalconsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game. The Falcons are 6-0 for some very good reasons and the Eagles are a 3-3 team, that has played like a 1-5 team to date. They have fired DC in the BYR week and honestly, that is never a good thing for team chemistry despite reports that the players have stopped playing for Castille. The dominant reason the Eagles lost last week in shocking fashion to the Lions with a 10-point fourth quarter lead is the not the complete blame of the defensive unit. I point to the lack of offensive execution that could have, should, have, would have, made this a 17 point Eagles lead with no chance for the Lions to come back. Atlanta was caught complacent in their last game against Oakland and gave up a ton of offensive yards. The Eagles under Reid are a perfect 13-0, but let?s not forget that the Falcons are coming off their BYE as well. Having two weeks to prepare for a largely inconsistent Eagles offense certainly favors the Falcons in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-18 ATS for 70% winners since 2002. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. Matt Ryan and his teammates will get the job done no matter what Hurricane Sandy begins to bring to Philadelphia.
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SF Giants +135FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Quite simple reasoning. Teams down 0-3 in a four game series tend to throw in the towel. Even if Detroit wins here we can still get + money on the Giants in the next game. Detroit doesn't want to have to go back to San Francisco down in the series so we look to fade the winless club.
Chuck O'Brien
The San Diego Chargers are slowly transforming into the disappointing team their fans have come to loathe over the years. Coming off a bye week, they're also in after blowing second-half leads in their last two games, consecutive losses to New Orleans and Denver. I don't think the week of rest means a thing for this game, as I believe the Cleveland Browns are a live underdog today at home, and I'll gladly take the points. I see the line is a flat -3 at most places, so I do suggest you buy the half point and play this one at +3.5.
We last saw the Chargers, who are mired in a 0-4 ATS slide in the month of October, on a Monday night against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, who erased a 24-0 halftime deficit and ended up winning the game, 35-24. The Chargers have been outscored 52-7 in the second halves of their past two games.
I've certainly been impressed by rookie Brandon Weeden, who has matured week after week, and since throwing four interceptions in his debut against Philadelphia. Last week rookie Josh Gordon dropped a crucial ball, and the Browns ended up losing at Indianapolis, 17-13.
I know the Browns have lost 12 of 13, but this will be their first home game for new team owner Jimmy Haslam, and I expect Weeden to have a big game today. He's thrown two touchdown passes in three straight games and leads all rookies in yards passing (1,783), TDs (nine) and completions of 20 or more yards (25). And Gordon has touchdown receptions of more than 30 yards in three straight games.
Yeah, things are about to get electric, and it's not because of the Bolts.
Cleveland comes into this game on ATS win streaks of 5-0 after failing to cover the number, 8-2 after a straight-up loss, 6-2 against the AFC and 8-3 overall.
Take the home dog.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Matt Rivers
On a 40-28 free play run entering Sunday.
Sunday free football play on the Falcons at the Eagles.
Bird battle here, and both teams coming off their bye-weeks, and coming off them with different mindsets. Atlanta is the lone unbeaten team in the league, while Philadelphia is a disappointing 3-3 and saw their defensive coordinator axed immediately after their home loss to Detroit on the 14th.
Whatever it is, it certainly has not been a pleasure ride for Philly this season, and against the disciplined Falcons, I do not expect the Eagles to right their ship. Mike Vick is still shaky when it comes to protecting the ball, so it would be unwise to put your eggs in this fragile Philly basket.
As for Matt Ryan, this is sort-of-a-homecoming, as he played his high school football in City of Brotherly Love, and would love to beat the Eagles at the Linc. These teams are meeting for the 5th straight season and the Eagles are 3-1 both straight up and against the line - that lone loss coming last season at the Georgia Dome.
Falcons to make it two in a row over the Eagles as they keep their mark clean at 7-0.
3♦ ATLANTA
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Colts-Titans to play to an Over at LP Field.
The Colts play on the road for the third time this year, and both previous meetings (at Chicago, at the Jets) away from home have played Over the total. I think this road game will as well, as Tennessee's defense has been an absolute sieve this year - 34 points per game allowed - in their seven games contested.
As for Tennessee, each of their last pair of games and five of their last six overall have played on the high-side.
Not hard to imagine the points adding up once again, as the Indy defense has allowed 20 points or more in five of their six games played this year.
Bombs Away! Colts-Titans ring up the scoreboard.
4♦ INDIANAPOLIS-TENNESSEE OVER
Anthony Redd
The Jets are far from Super Bowl contenders, but they've at least played better the past three weeks, and that's the confidence-builder they need heading into today's contest against the visiting Dolphins, who they narrowly defeated in overtime, 23-20, in the season's first meeting thanks to Miami's kicker missing two crucial field goal tries.
New York's offense managed 403 yards in the 29-26 OT loss at New England last Sunday. Mark Sanchez was actually very good, completing 28 of 41 passes for 328 yards.
Sanchez passed for 306 yards in the first meeting with Miami.
The Jets are a perfect 3-0 as favorites this season, downing the Bills, Colts and Dolphins. Make that 4-0 after this contest.
4♦ NY JETS
Craig Davis
Sunday free play is the Miami Dolphins as the small underdog versus the Jets.
As a Jets fan, my biggest concern today would be the emotional letdown of such a physical game with the New England Patriots last week.
It was still a loss, but it was a game they had the chance to win and probably should have won. While I understand that the Dolphins are a huge division rival, Gang Green did put everything that they had into last week's performance.
New York is going to struggle to slow down Reggie Bush after he received a full week to rest because of Miami's bye week. Surprisingly, though, New York's pass defense is playing much better even without Darrell Revis in the lineup. Can they fluster the rookie QB (Ryan Tannehill) enough for him to make the mistakes rookies normally make?
I believe the Dolphins pull the upset in this game at the line of scrimmage --- the point of attack. When a team is fully rested vs. a team that just got done with a very physical game the week before, it's usually the advantage for the team that had the bye week. Not rocket science, I realize.
Both teams realize the importance of this game in the division as all four teams in the AFC East are within two games of each other, but I believe Miami's freshness and the fact they will probably win the battle at the line of scrimmage, I'm liking their chances to not only cover this number, but possibly win outright.
Free play of the day on the Miami Dolphins plus the points.
2♦ MIAMI
Scott Delaney
My free play for Sunday takes us to the Mile High City, as I focus on the New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos showdown, a game that will be spotlighted by quarterbacks Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. It's going to be electric, that's for sure. But when it comes down to it, I don't think the Saints have enough on defense to slow Manning and company.
Not with the overall worst defense in the league. The Saints, who have the 32nd defense overall, rank 31st against the rush and 30th against the pass. Now you're asking them to go into the thin-air of Denver, and keep up with the Broncos' high-octane offense that includes the No. 4 passing game in the league?
Manning, who became the first player in NFL history to throw for 300 yards, three touchdowns and complete 70 percent of passes in three straight games, is on pace for a 4,800-yard season.
The last time he was on the field, we saw him make a mockery of the San Diego Chargers' near-flawless, first-half performance on Monday Night Football. The Broncos turned a 24-0 deficit into a 35-24 win, marking the first time in history a team trailed by that much and won by double digits. That was two weeks ago.
With plenty of time to rest for the Saints, who survived last week's contest with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I think Denver is in a good position to make a huge statement, and notch itself another win.
Denver checks in on an ATS streak of 8-2 after a bye week, so I'm laying the points tonight.
3♦ DENVER
Chris Jordan
There's football in London this weekend, and it'll be the kind we're used to in America, not the brand the Brits are familiar with. And I'm going to venture across the pond to the capital city of England, site of one of the most exciting Summer Olympics of our era, for one of your free NFL winners on Sunday.
The St. Louis Rams (3-4) "host" Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (4-3) Sunday at Wembley Stadium in the annual NFL International Series in London.
The Patriots are 7-point favorites over the Rams, while the total is sitting at 47.
First-year coach - but certainly no newbie to the game - Jeff Fisher has seemingly turned this team around, and it's evident on the defensive side of the ball. St. Louis has the 10th-ranked defense in the league overall, after being 22nd last year.
Prior to last week's 30-20 loss to the Green Bay Packers, the Rams had stifled their foes to a mere 14.7 points per game at home in the Edward Jones Dome, with impressive victories over the Redskins, Seahawks and Cardinals.
Of course, there might be a question mark against more-formidable opponents after seeing what the Packers did; this week may tell more against the Patriots and their No. 1 ranked overall offense.
The young Rams figure to have their hands full, as is this their first trip across the pond; the Patriots have been here before, beating Tampa Bay at Wembley in 2009. And let's be real, though the official boxscore will list St. Louis as the home team, the Patriots are by far the more popular team in Europe.
No doubt in my mind the Patriots will get a majority of the support.
That's not to say I'm ready to lay the chalk with New England, especially after seeing last Sunday's second-half collapse and overall scare, relinquishing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to the New York Jets in a three-point, overtime win. And that was one week after blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead in a loss to Seattle.
I will be intrigued to see how well these two teams defend one another, since Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels held the same position with the Rams last season. Theory being, the Rams might be able to predict some of his tendencies, albeit with guys like Brady, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. And, the Patriots could benefit by McDaniels' info about the tendencies of the Rams' offensive personnel.
The 'under' is on a 4-1 run in this game, and the Rams were on a four-game 'under' streak til last week, when they went over 45 with the Packers, totaling 50 points. They have to know their best chance in this game is to slow the Patriots down, eat up clock by controlling the tempo with a strong rushing game, protecting the football and keeping Brady off the field. I can buy into that philosophy and still see the Patriots win this game.
Again, I don't want to lay the points, since I could see New England up 24-14 late, and the Rams scoring a backdoor touchdown. The Patriots might just put it on Fisher's boys, like they did the Buccaneers in 2009, in 35-7 rout.
Safest bet here is to play UNDER 47 points.
4♦ UNDER
DAVID BANKS
Saints / Broncos Over 55
The New Orleans Saints (2-4, 3-3 ATS) have won two straight since an ugly 0-4 start, and they look to make it three straight in a battle of future Hall of Fame quarterbacks when Drew Brees & Co. visit Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos (3-3, 3-3 ATS). The Broncos are coming off of a bye after overcoming a 24-0 halftime deficit by outscoring the San Diego Chargers 35-0 in the second half two Mondays ago. You can catch this marquee Sunday Night Football matchup from Sports Authority Field in Denver, CO at 8:20 ET on NBC.
The Saints' passing offense has been as potent as ever this year with Brees passing for 2097 yards in six games (335.2 yards per game) with 18 touchdown passes, and it is a tribute to Brees that he has been able to put up those kind of number with defenses knowing that the Saints have needed to throw on practically every down with New Orleans playing from behind in every single game this year. The Saints did manage to come from behind to win the last two games, but ideally they would prefer to play with a lead for a change so that they can establish at least some semblance of a running game. It is easy to forget that New Orleans actually ranked seventh in the NFL in rushing last season, but they are dead last this year at a measly 76.2 rushing yards per game. They have a chance to make this a throwback game if Brees can pass the Saints to an early lead as New Orleans would then finally get a chance to run the ball a bit on the 18h ranked Denver run defense in an attempt to keep Manning on the sideline. Now the New Orleans defense welcomed back Jonathan Vilma last week, but he had no impact as the Saints allowed 513 total yards in the 35-28 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That makes playing with a lead here even more critical.
Now normally, NFL favorites coming off of a bye have been great bets, going 79-41-4, 65.8 percent ATS since 2005, but the Broncos' bye may have come at a bad time is they probably lost the momentum from that great second-half comeback at San Diego. Nonetheless, Manning has looked like his old self, as he now has four straight 300-yard passing games, leaving him with 1808 passing yards in six games with 14 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Do you think Manning is looking forward to passing against the 30th ranked Saints' passing defense? Denver has had a bit of a tough time getting its running game going too, ranking a disappointing 23rd in rushing at 93.8 yards per game despite having a talented running back in Willis McGahee, so this may truly turn into an entertaining passing battle between the two amazing quarterbacks.
Despite the fact that Denver has the far superior defense, Brees is always dangerous as an underdog going 31-20 ATS overall in this role, including 8-4 ATS when getting more than a field goal, and no defense in football has been able to slow him down the last couple of years. Also, the Broncos have been atrocious as decided favorites, going an abysmal 3-16 ATS the last 19 times they were favored by more than a field goal.
Michael Alexander
Panthers / Bears Under 42
The Panthers come into this game struggling to put points on the board as they are averaging only 16.6 points per game this season. Today they are on the road with their starting center injured and out for the season.
The Bears come into this one with the NFL’s top rated defense allowing only 13 points per game. The Bears offense has been horrible but points look decent due to the devense and special teams point scoring. Risky to base an over total on that happening every game.