Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 31,2010

Nelly

San Diego - over Tennessee

Just when you thought the Chargers could not make any more ridiculous mistakes, last week's game against New England showcased why the Charger are 2-5. San Diego is allowing just 244 yards per game while gaining 422 yards per game and they held the Patriots to just 179 yards last week, only to lose. The Titans stormed to another win last week with a fourth quarter rally and Tennessee is now 21-10-1 as underdogs since 2006. The QB situation is fuzzy for Tennessee right now but either player has proven capable and the Titans are allowing just 16 points per game. San Diego still has time to make a late season run and while this line is inviting for the underdog the Chargers can breakthrough.

Sam Martin

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers

The Broncos take on the 49ers across the pond in England this Sunday, and we give the edge to the 49ers. San Francisco is having an awful season, but with head coach Mike Singletary on the hot seat, we think his players will step up with an inspired effort against a struggling Denver side. The Broncos have lost three straight, including an embarrassing 59-14 blowout defeat last week against Oakland, and that loss showed signs of this team already giving up on the season. San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 ATS after a pointspread loss, and all the motivation lies with the 49ers here. We?ll back them to get the win!

Marc Lawrence

Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams
Prediction: Carolina Panthers

The Panthers insisted they had seen enough last week when they switched from QB Jimmy Clausen to former starter Matt Moore. Starting a rookie quarterback and wide receivers for the first time in the league since 1999, the bottom line is the experiment didn?t work. Now, off its first win of the season behind Moore last Sunday, Carolina takes on the improving Rams, a team against whom they?ve cashed in 11 of the last 12 games in this series. Meanwhile, Louie checks in at 6-14 ATS in its last 20 tries as a home favorite. We?ll side with the dog with the better defense that is suddenly playing with Moore interest. We recommend a 1-unit play on Carolina.

Hollywood Sports

Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots

Tarvaris Jackson quarterbacked the Vikings to the playoffs just two seasons ago. If Brett Favre would have stayed retired last August and Jackson was the starting quarterback, what would the Vikings' record be now? Would it be better than 2-4? Would they be scoring more than 18.5 PPG? If Favre was any other quarterback, would there be any doubt that he would be sitting this week to heal his BROKEN foot? If Favre was any other quarterback, would his job be in jeopardy for throwing ten interceptions already? I think the answer to ALL these questions is "yes" -- but I try to live in the real world rather than in the idyllic days of my youth where I considered Favre to be a miracle worker. In reality, a 5-1 team that scores 33.7 PPG and gains over 400 total YPG at home should be laying more than a touchdown on their home field against a 2-4 team starting a battered 41-year old quarterback. Minnesota has lost seven straight games on the road, by the way, and they failed to cover the spread in six of those games. Their defense allows 23.7 PPG along with 232.3 passing yards when away from home. Tom Brady will pick apart this pass defense. And the Patriots have covered six of their last seven home games as a favorite in the 3.5-10 point range. Of course, Minnesota may be "better" than their record and "due" for a win given their "desperate" situation ... just as was the case last Monday night with the Cowboys, right? That's why we had the Giants as our Monday Night Game of the Month because we try to operate in the "real" world where cold hard facts are cold hard facts. Lay the points with New England.

Vernon Croy

Washington Redskins vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Washington Redskins +2.5

This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Redskins are also the superior team in this match-up. Washington is 4-0-1 against the spread in their last 5 games as an underdog on the road and the Lions are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games overall. The Redskins have been very good at creating turnovers this season and their offense is well balanced. Detroit has had problems with turnovers this season averaging 3 turnovers per game in three of their last four games and even with the bye week this Detroit team is still banged up on both sides of the ball.

Wunderdog Sports

Tennessee Titans vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: Tennessee Titans +3.5

The San Diego Chargers are proving two things. Statistics don't mean a thing if you're not winning, and turnovers and poor special teams play are going to kill you. As I wrote about last week, the Chargers lead the league in both offense and defense but they are now 2-5 through seven games. Last week they again out-gained their opponent 363 to 179 but still lost! Out of 32 teams, the Chargers are ranked 31st in turnover margin and 32nd (dead last) in special teams. If this team ever limits their mistakes, they could be dangerous. But for now, this is simply a team that finds ways to lose. Suddenly the Tennessee Titans, who started 0-6 last year, are picking up where they left off two years ago. What people don't realize is that, aside from that 0-6 debacle to open the season in '09, the Titans are 26-7 in their last 33 games! They have also won eight of their last ten road games straight-up. They have done the most damage as a dog, where they are 11-2 ATS when getting 3.5-10 points. The Chargers are finding ways to lose games they are supposed to win, leaving them at 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite. Here we have a 5-2 team that is winning games by an average of 12 points per game, facing a 2-5 team that can't get out of their own way. Why is the worse team favored? I like Tennessee to cover here.

Teddy Covers

Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
PICK: New York Jets -6

To call the Green Bay Packers an injury riddled mess is something of an understatement. The Packers still haven’t recovered from Ryan Grant’s season ending injury at running back, consistently unable to run the football in recent weeks. Their offensive line isn’t healthy, and the season ending injury to TE Jermichael Finley affects both their blocking and their downfield passing attack.

But the Packers real injury concerns lie on the defensive side of the football. Their line has been decimated since training camp, missing Justin Harrell, Johnny Jolly, Mike Neal and quite possibly both Cullen Jenkins and Ryan Pickett this weekend. The linebacking corps is just as decimated, playing without Nick Barnett, Brad Jones and Brady Poppinga. The secondary is even worse, without Morgan Burnett, Derrick Martin, Atari Bigby and Al Harris – heck, even Charles Woodson is a long way from being 100%.

While the Packers are devastated by cluster injuries on the defensive side of the football (and coming off their biggest win of the year against Minnesota last Sunday Night), the Jets are fresh and healthy coming off their bye week. New York’s defense eats up one dimensional offenses like that of Green Bay. And the Jets powerful running duo of LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene should have ample success against the Packers beat up defense, a unit that has allowed 4.7 yards per carry this year and has gotten worse in recent weeks. Expect a rather one sided affair. 2* Take New York.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5

After last week's easy winner on the Miami Dolphins, we're now 3-1 (75%) with our last 4 "free plays".

We'll look to keep things rolling this week; for a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors as they'll look to take advantage of a reeling Cowboys team:

The Jaguars are 3-4 ATS/SU to start the year; last week they were annihilated 42-20 by the Chiefs, failing to cover with the 9-points they were afforded.

Good news for Jag's fans though, David Garrard is expected to return to line-up after sitting out last week with a concussion; "I feel really good, really good. Excited to be back, back around here in the locker room and seeing the guys. It's tough when you're at home watching, it's no fun," he said.

Garrard was asked if injury would change his style of play; "I'm still going to be David Garrard, I'm going to play the way that I play. I can't alter my game; I don't know how I would alter it. I'm going to be as physical as I still can but also be smart too knowing that I can have a concussion, I can be susceptible to a concussion."

Jack Del Rio's teams are known for their defensive play, but that hasn't been the case for the most part this year; it was completely shredded by the Chiefs last week.

That said, it has played very well at times this season, including holding San Diego to just 13-points, and getting a big win over the high-scoring Colts on October 3rd.

I look for Del Rio to have his team ready this week though against the depleted Cowboys.

On the other side of the field: The Cow-pokes lost 41-35 to the Giants on Monday night, losing Tony Romo in the process with a broken clavicle; Dallas is 1-5 SU/ATS to start the year.

Dallas' post-season hopes are finished, and with that reality settling into this teams collective psyche, suffice to say I expect another big letdown this week (and the rest of the year).

I got a good laugh on Tuesday morning when I read Roy Williams' comments about backup Jon Kitna being under center for the foreseeable future; “Tony is our starter, but Jon is just as good,' Williams said. "We are going to work this week in practice so we can get the timing down with the receivers. But I have complete faith in him. I have played with him for three years and I know how good he is.'

"He will put the ball where it needs to be,' Williams said. "Is he going to be perfect? Of course not. There isn't a quarterback in this league that is perfect. He is going to make mistakes but we have to help him.'

I couldn't disagree with Williams more, but...what else is the guy supposed to say?

When Romo left the game last Monday, there was a perceptible shift in the Cowboys intensity and confidence; the wind was knocked out of their sails.

To his credit, Kitna did look decent all things considered, finishing 16-of-33 for 187 yards with 2-TD's.

Very important to note though that Dallas is in fact just 12-14 ATS over the last 2-seasons when playing with 6-days or less of rest (also just 3-7 ATS in non-conference games).

Bottom line: It doesn't take Keyshawn Johnson or Tom Jackson to point out to us that Kitna is no Romo.

With a week to prepare for the Cowboys backup, I expect the visitors to come out fired up on the defensive side of the ball as they gun for the upset on the road and to move to .500 on the year.

The combination of a blown-season, the loss of their starting QB, along with the rest of the strong ATS stats and other factors working against the Cowboys here certainly does not warrant them being a TD favorite in this circumstance.

While the outright win isn't out of the question, I'll gladly take the points; you may want to consider a second look at the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS this Sunday.

Larry Ness

Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders
PICK: Seattle Seahawks +3

The Raiders absolutely destroyed the Broncos in Denver last week but I look for a big letdown from this wildly inconsistent team. Oakland has not won two games in a row since the 2008 season. How exactly does a team go from gaining only 179 yards against San Francisco two weeks ago to then exploding for 508 total yards in the next week? Brad Gradkowski remains listed as doubtful for this game with his shoulder injury which means Jason Campbell will be the starting quarterback once again this week. This is the same Campbell who was just 8 for 21 for 83 passing yards with a (barely-registering) 10.7 quarterback rating which is the lowest for an Al Davis quarterback in 35 years. Oh, and did I mention that the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in ELEVEN STRAIGHT games at home as a favorite? No thanks, I will take Seattle and the points in this one because at least I know what I am getting with Pete Carroll's club. The 4-2 Seahawks may not be flashy but they play good defense and they limit their mistakes. They are holding teams to just 17.8 PPG which is #5th in the NFL. More importantly in this matchup, Seattle has been the league's #2nd best team in stopping the run (77.5 YPG) which is EXACTLY the type of team that is going to give Oakland fits since they are so dependent on their running backs. Behind Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, the Raiders average 158.4 YPG on the ground (#3rd in the NFL). But the Oakland passing game ranks 25th in the NFL (182 YPG) and their offense will stall if they become reliant on Campbell throwing the football. Seattle's running game has improved with their recent acquisition of MarShawn Lynch from Buffalo. The Seahawks need to improve their production in the red zone as they rank #24th in the league with just a 40% efficiency. Facing an Oakland defense that is #26th in the NFL in points allowed (23.6 PPG) may be just what the doctor ordered. Lynch and running back Justin Forsett should be able to run the ball against a suspect Raiders' run defense that is #28th in the NFL by allowing 138.9 rushing YPG. Oakland may be improving but until I witness them actually playing two good games in a row, I will play against them after that "once-in-a-lifetime" performance for this roster last week. I like the atmosphere and tone that Carroll has imparted in Seattle and their consistency will make the difference in this game.

Black Widow

1* on Cincinnati Bengals -1

The Miami Dolphins will have a hard time getting over their 1-point loss to Pittsburgh from last Sunday. We expect them to suffer an emotional hangover against a hungry Cincinnati Bengals team that is playing for their season this week. Cincinnati knows they cannot afford to fall any further behind the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North, so essentially this is a must-win for them. The Dolphins are 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992. The Bengals are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. After two poor defensive performances in a row and 3 straight heartbreaking losses, this Bengals team is primed to bounce back with their best effort of the season. There's some nice line value here with Cincinnati as only 1-point home favorites. Take the Bengals and lay the points.

Carlo Campanella

Green Bay Packers vs. NY Jets
Play NY Jets -6

After losing their season opener by just 1 point to Baltimore (10-9), the NY Jets won 5 straight games and return from their Bye week at 5-1. With injuries to many Jets starters, including star coverage man CB Reavis, the Jets needed the week off and now host Green Bay with only 3 players remaining on their injury report, compared to 19 players on the Packer's injury list. The Jets return home on Sunday as a healthy squad that's 7-1 ATS during their last eight games following a week of rest. Second year signal caller, QB Sanchez, is officially the leader of the offense, as these Jets are averaging 26.5 points per game and have scored 24 points or more in 5 straight games. Those are big numbers for a team that's build around their defense, which is allowing only 16 points per game this season. In fact, the Jets defensive unit matches up extremely well against Green Bay- The Packers have struggled to run the ball effectively, averaging just 99 yards per game this season and now they must play on the road against a Jets' defense that has already held 4 of their 6 opponents to 96 rushing yards or less, including stopping two of those teams to just 52 and 49 rushing yards! That will force Green Bay to rely on QB Rodgers, who has already tossed 9 Interceptions during his first six games, which is more than he threw during the entire 2009 NFL season!

Bob Wingerter

Packers vs. NY Jets
Play: Under 43

The Packers have a boatload of injuries within the defensive front seven, so everybody expects a high-flying affair. Not so fast, my friends. As an ex-defensive coordinator, Jets’ head coach Rex Ryan has too much respect for opposing DC Dom Capers’ creativity and Capers could come out and play five, six defensive backs. When Mark Sanchez is your quarterback, extra defensive backs are not a good thing. The Jets will merely target the soft underbelly of the Packers’ d-line and linebackers with smashmouth football that powers its way safely down the field, then lets its defense take over in good field position for most of the afternoon. That defense is a good defense, and good defenses don’t give up big points in favorable conditions such as this.

Sports Insights

Carolina Panthers vs. St. Louis Rams

This game pits two of the weaker teams in the NFL. Carolina is just 1-5 while St. Louis is 3-4. During the early part of the NFL season, the Rams have shown sports fans that they can play competitive football. We note, however, that St. Louis was a lowly 1-15 last year. One of our offshore contacts noted that, "Sometimes, the best values on the board are not on the marquee match-ups of the week."

At the time of this writing, this game is the most lopsided-bet game of the week, with 80% of the side bets taking the slightly-favored Rams. However, even with 4 out of 5 bets taking the Rams at home, the line has edged in the opposite direction. The line opened at Rams -3 -120 at Pinnacle, but the associated odds/vig has moved in the direction of the Panthers. The reverse line movement on the big key number of three is an indication of big money counterbalancing the public bets on the Rams.

Let's "Bet Against the Public" and follow the big, "smart money." Keep an eye on this line so that you don't miss the big key number of three. Currently, most books are at Carolina +3, but different books have different vigs/odds associated with the point spread. Right now, Sports Interaction has one of the best lines/odds for Carolina Panther bettors, but remember to shop around for the best line.

Carolina Panthers +3

Tom Freese

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
Prediction: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay is 22-10 ATS their last 32 road games. The Packers are 5-0 ATS following a bye week. Green Bay is 6-2-1 ATS their last 9 games following an ATS winner. The Packers are 7-3-1 ATS after passing for more than 250 yards in their last game. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in Week 8. The Jets are 0-4 ATS in Week 8. New York is 37-61 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road. The Jets only loss was to Baltimore in Week One. This game will a real tough game to win.