Scott Rickenbach
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
While we are generally hesitant to play on a team off of a defeat in overtime, the fact is that Buffalo amassed over 500 yards of offense in their loss to the Ravens in Week Seven. Buffalo has their offense kicked into a higher gear and that makes them a dangerous underdog. Even though Kansas City won their game (versus Jacksonville) by 22 points in Week Seven, the Chiefs only had a one point lead with about five minutes to go in the third quarter.
The final score (42-20) of the Chiefs victory last Sunday is helping to give us some line value here because things got out of hand late in the game in Kansas City last week. The Bills never say die attitude was certainly present last week. Buffalo rallied for 10 fourth quarter points to force overtime. Even though the Chiefs are now 4-2 on the season, their four wins have come against teams with a combined 8-20 record on the year. Consider a small play on Buffalo plus the big points on Sunday afternoon.
John Ryan
Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -2.5
5* graded play on San Francisco. This may be listed as a 1:00 EST home start for the San Francisco 49ers, but this is hardly a home game having to deal with the long flights to and from London, England. This marks the fourth regular season NFL game played in England and does not show case playoff contenders or defending Super Bowl Champions as the first three games did. Still, England loves the NFL and Wembley will be rocking Sunday night. Normally, this game is a nightmare logistically and the players suffer from linger effects of jet lag well into the next game. Getting away from home may be the perfect remedy this week for the 49ers to regroup and play closer to their potential. SF Motivated to win The 49ers, who were picked to go to the Super Bowl this season by many prognosticators, have the worst record in the NFC. Despite being 1-6, they are in a Division that has just one team, Seattle at 4-2, that is has a winning record. If the 49ers win this game and Seattle loses to Oakland, the 49ers will be just two games out of the Division lead with eight games remaining. Troy Smith Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith will start at quarterback for the 49ers. The former Ohio State star will not be required to do anything spectacular in this game. The 49ers running game led by running back Frank Gore will dominate this game going up against the Broncos run defense ranking 30th in the NFL. 49ers Running Game in High Gear The 49ers running game has improved significantly and Gore has averaged 95 yards per game over the past four games after averaging just 64.3 yards per game in the first three games. Given this strong running attack, Smith will have great opportunities to use high percentage pass plays out of play action and will not be under duress from the Denver pass rush. Gore has done a better job running the ball, but it has been the improved play of the offensive line and in particular the guard play of Mike Iupati and Chilo Rachal. Denver likes to move defensive tackle Marcus Thomas into different spots along the line of scrimmage, but he will lose the battle against these two guards. Denver last against the Run Denver ranks last rushing the ball averaging just 68.4 yards per game. The 49ers have the personnel not to worry about any run plays and can keep the safeties back in coverage and then use the entire spectrum of looks to confuse Orten before the snap. Defensive ends Aubrayo Franklin and Justin Smith are excellent against the run. Smith will have a huge advantage in pass rushing against left tackle Ryan Clady. This is a matchup that Smith will dominate and he will have the opportunity for sacks and forcing turnovers. Money Line Technicals Taking a look at the technical side the 49ers are supporting by a money line system that has produced a 60-15 record for 80% winners since 2005. Play against dogs using the money line that are off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival and sporting a losing record. As mentioned above, I do not see Denver gaining more than 75 rushing yards. Note that the 49ers are an impressive 15-4 against the money line (+10.2 Units) in road games when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards since 1992. Game Situations Favor the 49ers Denver is in a series of poor situations for this game noting they are just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons; 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) when facing poor teams getting outscored by six or more points per game on the season since 1992; 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored over the last three seasons. San Francisco is in a series of strong situations noting they are 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games off an upset loss as a road favorite since 1992; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after one or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last two seasons. Take the 49ers.
Charlie Scott
Packers vs. Jets
Play: Over 41.5
Jets off bye week, might have a little rust, but will definitely take advantage of this reasonable total. Green Bay's offense won't be able to run vs the Jets and will have to pass and can pass. While Green Bays defense is a Mash unit and can't stop many teams and won't stop the Jets offense.
Craig Trapp
Vikings vs. Patriots
Play: Over 43.5
MIN is just so over rated. NE offense is going to love being back home against an defense in MIN that really can't stop the pass. Good news for MIN Farve is hurting so they will lean on their strength running the ball with Peterson. MIN will run for at least 3 TD's and will help push this over. NE will win a close one here as both these score over 25!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Carolina Panthers +3
A Carolina team that is better than it has shown thus far brings both momentum and confidence into this one following their first win of the season last week. Getting a second chance, quarterback Matt Moore delivered a week ago. I expect him to build on last week's performance here. Since Coach Fox has been at Carolina, his teams have been a strong investment in the road underdog role. They are 31-18 ATS as a road underdog, and this tightens up to 21-11 ATS when valued as a road dog of 7 points or less. Technically speaking, we are in good shape when you consider that plays against favorites (ST LOUIS) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a losing record, are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, plays against home favorites (ST LOUIS), poor passing team (5.3-5.9 yards per pass) against a horrible passing team (<=5.3 yards per pass), are an impressive 51-19 ATS since 1983, including a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.
Chip Chirimbes
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -6½
How 'bout them Cowboys!' At 1-5 everyone has counted them out for the season and without quarterback Tony Romo they seem even less likely to make a run at the playoffs. John Kitna will now lead lead Dallas and who knows who (Todd Bouman) will lead Jacksonville. After their embarrassing performance on Monday night against they Giants where they surrendered 497 yards Dallas will if they have an professionalism at all will show up and win big. Take the COWBOYS!
Black Widow
1* on Cincinnati Bengals -1
The Miami Dolphins will have a hard time getting over their 1-point loss to Pittsburgh from last Sunday. We expect them to suffer an emotional hangover against a hungry Cincinnati Bengals team that is playing for their season this week. Cincinnati knows they cannot afford to fall any further behind the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC North, so essentially this is a must-win for them. The Dolphins are 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992. The Bengals are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. After two poor defensive performances in a row and 3 straight heartbreaking losses, this Bengals team is primed to bounce back with their best effort of the season. There's some nice line value here with Cincinnati as only 1-point home favorites. Take the Bengals and lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Green Bay Packers +6.5
I know New York has had a bye week to prepare, but odds makers are giving the Jets too much respect today. The Jets don't have the same dominant defense that they had last season. In fact, they rank just 22nd in pass defense, allowing 229 yards per game through the air. That likely spells trouble with Aaron Rodgers coming to town. He leads the eighth-best passing attacks in the league, averaging 250.7 passing yards per game.
In addition, Green Bay has been an extremely profitable investment when catching points. The Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog. They are also 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less under coach McCarthy, actually winning by an average score of 25.9 to 21.8 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Packers are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 road games period.
Green Bay has 3 losses this season, but none have come by more than 3 points. Expect the Packers to cover this number by taking New York right down to the wire.
James Patrick Sports
Titans vs. Chagers
There is no reason to underestimate Tennessee, who has tallied (29) points or more five times, even though Kerry Collins and Vince Young have shared time at quarterback. Tennessee is (45-20) Over the Total when they score (22) to (28) points and (6-0) Over the Total when both teams score (20) or more points over the last (3) seasons. The Big Man sees No Problimo in these numbers coming to pass on Sunday in San Diego and Sunday's NFL complimentary Over /Under Totals selection is #221 Tennessee - San Diego Over the Total.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN DIEGO –3½ over Tennessee
The San Diego Chargers 2-5 with losses to Kansas City, Oakland, Seattle and St. Louis? Are you kidding? When you take a great QB like Philip Rivers and surround him with nothing but talent and a very good defense, what you have is the potential for a championship. The Chargers have been playing with their heads in the clouds almost every week. This team has made more mental mistakes in seven weeks than most teams make in a full season. Up and down the field the Chargers go, only to find some bizarre way to hurt themselves and ultimately lose games. That said, one can’t help but notice the glaring stats that have San Diego’s top-ranked offence with 422 yards per game, a top-ranked defense allowing a league low 244 yards per game and a pass-rush that is tied for the league lead in sacks with 25. And isn’t this the time of year, every year that the real Chargers show up? They have a history of poor starts followed by scorching finishes and ultimately become one of the favorites to win it all. Time is running out and they catch the Titans playing its third road game in four weeks after some very intense contests. Tennessee is not among the elite teams. They were shredded by the Giants but won 29-10. In that win over Dallas they won on a Dallas celebration penalty that gave them tremendous field position and they were shredded in that game also for over 500 yards of total offense against. Last week’s win over Philly was another one of many Tennessee’s wins in which the score is misleading. This invader is ripe to get beat and it’s also another classic case of buying low (San Diego) and selling high (Tennessee). Play: San Diego –3½ -1.04 (Risking 2 units).
DALLAS –6½ over Jacksonville
If someone had suggested that after seven weeks the Chargers and Cowboys would have three wins between them, that person would have been deemed crazy. The Cowboys went to their Halloween party a little early when they went dressed up as a “bye week” against the Giants. Now the Boys have been taking it on the chin everywhere from the local media to sports talk shows across the nation. They’ve been called gutless, quitters and a few other things. NFL players hate to be disrespected more than anything in the world. That is the worst possible insult you can lay on them. That said, expect the Boys to treat this one like a playoff match. With Romo out and the whole team being disrespected, Dallas will rally and play their hearts out with nothing being left on the table. And could they have handpicked a riper opponent to take its frustrations out on? We don’t think so. The Jags can’t and don’t do anything well. They can’t move five yards, they can’t defend and outside of a road win in Buffalo, its other road games resulted in losses of 38-13 and 42-20, not to mention that 30-3 shellacking they took on Monday night two weeks ago. This one is likely to have that same flavor. Play: Dallas –6½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Carolina +3 over ST. LOUIS
If momentum counts for anything than the Panthers are in good shape here. They rallied for a win over the 49ers last week, its first of the season while the Rams suffered a last second TD by the Bucs to go home feeling like they had a win stolen from them. St. Louis actually led the Bucs by 17-3 at one point and carried an 11-point advantage into halftime, but the Rams were outscored 12-0 in the second half. When you look down the list of Rams games this season, one common denominator that you may notice is that they were taking points in all. In fact, you’d have to go all the way back to the 2007 season to find the last time that St. Louis was spotting points. It’s much different being a favorite than an underdog and while this year’s edition of the Rams is improved, they’ll have to demonstrate that they are prepared for this assignment before we can endorse it. Now with the potential of a strong running game and with Matt Moore’s confidence level a lot higher after a solid game last week, the Panthers are suddenly a whole lot more dangerous. It’s also worth noting that John Fox is 4-0 vs St. Louis. So, what we have here is a rookie QB coming off a heartbreaking loss, playing for a fragile team, spotting points. That’s a recipe for disaster. Lastly, a close look at the Rams reveals they’ve had the NFL’s easiest schedule to date with games against Arizona, Oakland, Washington, Seattle, Detroit, San Diego and Tampa while the Panthers are much more battle tested with games against the Giants, Cinci, Tampa, New Orleans, Chicago and San Fran. Incidentally, the Pink Panthers were in a strong position to beat New Orleans, Cincinnati and the Giants. Play: Carolina +3 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
DETROIT –2½ over Washington
On a list of professional sports teams that are imposters, the Washington Redskins would top the charts. Every single win of theirs this season is misleading and that this team is 4-3 is a complete and utter farce. The Skins have had a tough schedule for sure and it includes games against Dallas, Philly, Indy, Green Bay and Houston. However, its defense has NOT risen to the occasion and that defense ranks dead last in the league. Even with the Bears turning it over six times last week, the Skins barely managed to squeeze out a three-point win. Now after a slew of tough games in which they were all close and with a bye week on deck, the Skins will travel on consecutive weeks and take on a team that is perceived as an easy out. They’re not. The Lions are most definitely a team on the rise. Its last two losses were to the Giants and Pack in games they were in right down to the wire. In between those two losses they whacked the Rams 44-6. Detroit is home for just the third time this season. In its two prior as host, the Lions amassed 76 points and they’re surely not taking a step down in class here. They’re well rested, they get its talented young pivot back and they can sense they’re on the verge of something good. Skins get exposed for who they really are. Play: Detroit –2½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
RANDALL THE HANDLE
BEST BETS
Panthers (1-5) at Rams (3-4)
When you look down a list of Rams games this season, one common denominator that you may notice is that they were taking points in all. In fact, you’d have to go all the way back to the 2007 season to find the last time that St. Louis was spotting points. It’s much different being a favourite than an underdog and while this year’s edition of the Rams is improved, they’ll have to demonstrate that they are prepared for this assignment before we can endorse it. The Panthers are feeling better about themselves after having a bye week and subsequent win. Carolina’s passing game on the rise while Rams may not be. TAKING: PANTHERS +3
Titans (5-2) at Chargers (2-5)
If we lose this one, just punch us in the face, okay? Up and down the field the Chargers go, only to find some bizarre way to hurt themselves and ultimately lose games. That said, we can’t help but notice the glaring stats that have San Diego’s top-ranked offence with 422 yards per game, a top-ranked defence allowing a league low 244 yards per game and a pass-rush that is tied for the league lead in sacks with 25. Combine that with the fact the Bolts defeated the Titans by a 42-17 in Tennessee last year and that this visitor has lost six of eight against AFC opponents, this price appears cheap and we’ll confidently go back to the well once again. TAKING: SAN DIEGO –3½
Redskins (4-3) at Lions (1-5)
One of Detroit’s two wins last year was against these Redskins. While we’re not sure if Washington is any better this time around, we believe the Lions are. Detroit is home for just the third time this season. In its two prior as host, the Lions amassed 76 points. The Lions get the services of their promising young QB back, as Matthew Stafford returns and he should be able to exploit Washington’s 31st ranked pass defence. Washington travels for consecutive weeks and will be greeted by a rested host anxious to make this visit most unwelcoming. TAKING: DETROIT –2½
THE REST
Broncos (2-5) at 49ers (1-6)
Europe should be far enough away for the Broncos to escape the wrath of their fans after 59-14 drubbing by arch-rival Raiders. That result certainly had impact on this number but with Kyle Orton just having to win against a San Fran team that will now start its third QB of year, we’re pleased to back his side. TAKING: DENVER +1
Packers (4-3) at Jets (5-1)
The stars did not align well for the Packers here. Green Bay is beat up. It figures to be coming down off a high after grueling win against hated Vikings. They’ll have little success running the ball here and they must face a rested Jets team on New York’s turf. TAKING: NY JETS –6
Dolphins (3-3) at Bengals (2-4)
Some may suggest that you can’t count on the Bengals. We beg to differ. The Bengals can be relied upon to underperform and to fail miserably when favoured. Miami’s passing game gradually improving which bodes well against Cincy’s banged up secondary. TAKING: MIAMI +2
Bills (0-6) at Kansas City (4-2)
Every Sunday is frightening in Buffalo . However, Chiefs not quite mature enough to be spotting and covering large pointspreads on consecutive weeks. Buffalo’s feeling a bit better about itself after taking superior Ravens to overtime last week. TAKING: BUFFALO +7½
Jaguars (3-4) at Cowboys (1-5)
Tony Romo out, Jon Kitna in and combined with Dallas’ 1-5 start, oddsmakers have enlisted the much stronger team as less than a converted touchdown favourite. That’s a huge mistake as Jacksonville is short on talent and has outgained only the Bills thus far. With pressure off, Cowboys romp. TAKING: DALLAS –6½
Buccaneers (4-2) at Cardinals (3-3)
The Max Hall experiment is dead. Too bad Arizona must turn to a quarterback whose career is on life support. Together, Hall and Derek Anderson have combined for one offensive touchdown in the past 13 quarters and that would have anyone, including us, leery of spotting points. TAKING: TAMPA BAY +3
Seahawks (4-2) at Raiders (3-4)
Al Davis must have thought he passed on after witnessing his previously inept asset rack up 59 points against the Broncos. That performance has boosted this number and while we still aren’t quite sold on the Seahawks, their ability to slow the run negates Oakland’s best offensive ability. TAKING: SEATTLE +2½
Vikings (2-4) at Patriots (5-1)
Whether Brett Favre goes or not, we do expect to see Tarvaris Jackson on the field at some point and that might provide the stability which Vikings need most right now. Minnesota’s defence remains a solid group and against New England’s popgun offence, this one should never get too far away. TAKING: MINNESOTA +5½
Steelers (5-1) at Saints (4-3)
After the Saints just lost to a pair of rookie quarterbacks and now must face the powerful Steelers and the experienced arm of Ben Roethlisberger, you can basically expect the unexpected. Pittsburgh’s defence hurting just enough for Saints offence to get the job done. TAKING: NEW ORLEANS –1
Texans (4-2) at Colts (4-2)
Asking the Texans to win here en route to a season sweep of adversarial Colts may not be wise but with Indianapolis’ long list of injuries, most notably in the receiving corp., and being given a bunch of points to play with, there are much dumber things you could do on a Monday night. TAKING: HOUSTON +5½
Jimmy Moore
Green Bay @ New York Jets
Pick: Green Bay +6
I know the Jets have looked superb so far this season but for them the buy week hit at the worst time. Bye weeks held struggling teams but they generally hurt teams that are on a roll and the Jets certainly were on a roll. The Packers are coming off of a big divisional win and they will be very intent on keeping the momentum going since they had two OT losses before last week's win. Take the generous points in this one.
JIM FEIST
WASHINGTON REDSKINS/ DETROIT LIONS
PLAY: WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Washington (4-3 SU/4-2-1 ATS) has had a tough schedule but is playing better, off a confidence-building 17-12 win at Philadelphia, a 16-13 OT win over Green Bay, a 27-24 home loss to the Colts and Sunday.5?s 17-14 win at Chicago as a dog. New QB Donovan McNabb (6 TDs, 6 picks) has been better than those stats suggest, utilizing his tight end (Chris Cooley) in Mike Shanahan.5?s West Coast attack. The offense is 15th in the NFL in yards, 9th in passing with 228 yds pg. DeAngelo Hall tied an NFL record with four interceptions, running one back 92 yards for a touchdown, and the Washington Redskins sacked Jay Cutler four times while forcing six turnovers in a 17-14 victory over the Chicago Bears on Sunday. The running game is banged up, but RB Ryan Torain ran for 100 yards against the Colts and 125 Sunday against the Bears while subbing for the injured Clinton Portis. Detroit comes off a bye week. The Lions (1-5 SU, 5-1 ATS) haven.5?t been winning, but their spread mark is great because they.5?ve been in every game despite a lot of problems. QB Matthew Stafford (0 TDs, 0 INTs) has been out with a injured right shoulder, so Shaun Hill (9 TDs, 7 INTs) has been running the offense. However, Hill broke his forearm the last game and had surgery, out a few weeks. So Drew Stanton (1 TD, 1 INT) had to step in during a 28-20 loss at the NY Giants, throwing for 222 yards. QB Stafford has been back at practice and is expected to be able to start this game. The offensive line is still a problem, with the running game second to last in the NFL and the QBs getting sacked 16 times in 6 games. The defense has new looks, a 4-3 scheme, under DC Gunther Cunningham and attacking unit. They.5?ve added defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch and rookie DT Ndamukong Suh, but this secondary is still awful. Even in a 19-14 loss at Chicago they were outgained 463-168! Jim Schwartz is 2-19 as Lions head coach and the Lions have lost 23 straight road games. I'm going to be on Washington here Sunday for one simple reason. The oddsmakers have made the Lions a favorite, which means they need to win straight up and that has happened just three times in the last three years! The Skins have faced the best QB's in the league in the early part of the season, so a Stafford who hasn't played in weeks will be little trouble for this club. Take the Skins as the Lions will be on the losing side again here Sunday.
BIG AL
Giants @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Giants
The Rangers were successful last night in their must-win game three, but the Giants were much, much closer in that one than the Rangers were in the first two games out on the west coast. Today's game is almost as important to the Rangers as yesterday's was, and once again the Texas hitters will be facing a lefthanded starter and the Giants a righthanded one as they both did on Saturday. But unlike the lefthander that the Rangers faced last night (Jonathan Sanchez), southpaw rookie Madison Bumgarner is a much better control pitcher (only 26 walks in 111 innings in the regular season) and his 3.55 ERA so far in his first post-season is better than the Giants could have hoped for in a #4 starter who only just turned 21 years old. Although he didn't start game six of the NLCS, he played a pivotal role in that game, throwing two scoreless innings in a game they eventually won to clinch the NL Pennant. The same cannot be said of Ranger righthander Tommy Hunter, who was lights-out earlier on in 2010, but who struggled over the last month of the regular season and has continued that way for most of the post-season. Hunter has an 0-1 record and 6.14 ERA so far through the ALDS and ALCS, his first-ever playoff experience. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss our 10 Winners today (including seven 10* Plays), as we're 8-1 our last 9 World Series Guaranteed selections, and we're 74-41 on our 10* Plays! Today, in Baseball, we're featuring a 10* Over/Under Winner, and we have a 10* NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. We also have 7 NFL Winners today (19-10 our last 29 NFL). Go get 'em.
Tom Stryker
Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots
PICK: New England Patriots -5.5
Minnesota probably didn't expect to be resting at 2-4 SU at this point of the season. Unfortunately, for the Vikings, it is the reality of the situation. Veteran QB Brett Favre continues to struggle without his favorite target (WR Sidney Rice) in the lineup and his banged up body is limiting his effectiveness. Favre has already thrown 10 interceptions and even the addition of WR Randy Moss hasn't made much of a difference.
Speaking of Moss, New England has performed just fine without having Randy in the lineup. Since getting rid of No. 84 on October 6th, the Patriots have picked up a pair of nice wins over Baltimore and San Diego. Those are two NFL clubs that will give a number of teams in the league trouble.
There are a few angles that support this best bet too. On foreign soil, Minnesota has been at its worst since the 1999 season notching a dismal 34-62 SU and 37-55-4 ATS record. In this role matched up against a non-division opponent, the Purple slip to a stunning 19-42 SU and 21-37-3 ATS including just 3-17 SU and 5-14 ATS in this set coming off a straight up loss.
One thing New England has done well is dominate teams at home that enter without momentum off a SU and ATS loss - now 28-5 SU and 24-9 ATS in its last 33 tries. Provided the Pats aren't laying double-digits in this situation this team trend explodes to a fantastic 18-3 SU and ATS!
Against teams from the NFC, the Pats have cruised to a noteworthy 34-6 SU and 23-15-2 ATS mark in their last 30 meetings. There will be some added emotion on the Minnesota sidelines especially with Moss' return and Favre's ailing ankle. But, the bottom line here is simple, the Patriots are playing better football right now and they'll continue to roll against this Vikings bunch that is still misfiring offensively. Take New England.