Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 4,2009

Doc's Sports
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New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +9.5
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If the Chiefs have any pride whatsoever, they will not let the Giants blow them out this Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. No question that the Giants have better players then the Chiefs, but this is a statement game for KC. This is their second home game and their first did not go as planned, getting beat by their rivals, the Oakland Raiders. They have played a brutal schedule thus far in 2009 with road games against Baltimore and Philadelphia. I expect them to keep this a low scoring game that is close for 60 minutes. This will be the second straight long travel road game for the Giants and asking them to cover a spread this big in just not in the cards. Play the home dog and watch your money grow.

Craig Trapp
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cincinnati Bengals -5.5:
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The Bengals are coming off the best win this franchise has had in over 3 years. Old Bengals teams would be ripe for a let down but all these young players are hungry to prove themselves. The defense in Cincinnati is a top 10 defense that really does not have a weakness. On offense they aren't nearly as explosive for big plays but are very dependable. On the other hand the Browns are a joke. Ok a joke doesn't say enough. This team can't stop anyone on defense and offensively they just aren't talented. QB change this week to Anderson will prove to everyone that it doesn't matter the QB they just don't have enough talent. This one will not be close as Brown's play there way into a huge 0-4 hole. SCORE CIN 27 - CLE 16

Terron Chapman
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns +5.5
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While many expected the Browns to be bad this season, nobody could’ve predicted they would be this bad. The Browns are in total disarray under new head coach Eric Mangini. Players have filed a grievance against their coach and there are murmurs in the locker room over who should be the starter at quarterback. Well news out of Cleveland is “Mangenius” has tabbed Derek Anderson as the starter Sunday instead of Brady Quinn with the division rival Cincinnati Bengals heading to town.
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The change could be seen as a sign of desperation for the Browns, but I see it as a move a three weeks too late. Anderson is the more proven quarterback between the two with a 29-touchdown season on his resume. But to Quinn’s credit, the Browns haven’t given him much help with their play-calling thus far. Look for Cleveland to try and open it up a little more with Anderson at the helm.
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Probably if not for the Jets 3-0 start, the Bengals would be getting the most pub as the most surprising team in the league thus far. If not for a bad luck tip against the Broncos, the Bengals would be 3-0, go figure. But this is tough spot for the Bengals. They will be on the road, after a big win over the defending champs, facing a desperate division rival that has yet to win a ballgame. The Browns have been laughable on defense; they have no interceptions and have forced just one fumble. They will have their chances on Sunday however against Carson Palmer who is still working his way back and has four interceptions so far.
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On paper, there is no way the Bengals should lose this game, but in the NFL, crazy things can happen (e.g. Detroit over Washington last week). A change at quarterback should provide a jolt to a team that desperately needs one. We are still talking about the Bungles here, so a letdown would not surprise me one bit. In fact, I expect it, especially with a road tilt against the Ravens on the horizon. Look for the Browns to exceed expectations in this one. Take the points. Play on the Cleveland Browns for 2.5 units.

Black Widow
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1* on Dallas Cowboys -3
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We really feel the Denver Broncos are overrated after their 3-0 start with wins over the Raiders, Browns and Bengals, teams that have combined for a 2-7 record this season. The Cowboys should be 3-0 right now if they hadn't blown their game against the Giants a couple weeks ago. Dallas is getting back to running the football, and they are doing it better than any team in the league. Marion Barber is expected to play this week, so look for the Cowboys to build on their 194 rushing yards per game thus far. Dallas is popping a ridiculous 6.8 yards per rush, and this offense is putting up 28.7 points per game. Denver is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. This is by far the best offense the Broncos have seen, and they won't be able to keep up with the Cowboys on the scoreboard Sunday. Denver's miracle run stops here. Take the Cowboys and lay the points.

Robert Ferringo

Take Detroit (+10) over Chicago

I know that the expectation is for the Lions to roll back over after picking up their first win since 2007. However, this is been a pretty spry Detroit club so far this year. New Orleans outgunned them but they also leapt out to a 10-0 lead on Minnesota two weeks ago. The Bears are coming off their second straight last-second victory and could suffer a bit of a letdown in this spot against an inferior opponent. Chicago’s secondary is still a bit spotty and I think that the Lions will be able to move the ball through the air. Further, the Bears offense is averaging just 19 points per game while the defense has surrendered an average of 18 points per game. All three of Chicago’s games have been decided by less than a touchdown and I think that covering a fat number like this is a lot to ask. Chicago is 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite and 5-16-2 ATS following a win.

Alex Grosse

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7

This is a matchup featuring two of the league's weakest teams. Although many expected the Redskins to potentially be a contender with the $100 million acquistion of Albert Haynesworth, they continue to struggle. Washington is 3-8 in its last 11 overall and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 contests as a favorite. The main reason why Washington is struggling is because the Redskins just cannot score points. They are averaging 13.3 points per game, ranking 28th in the league. Considering that two of the opponents that Washington faced were the St. Louis Rams and the Detroit Lions, it becomes even more obvious that the Redskins are going to somehow find a way to either keep this game close or even lose outright. The Bucs have also been terrible this year but starting Josh Johnson may give them a much needed boost. Take the Bucs with the points.

John Martin

1 Unit on Giants/Chiefs U 42.5

This Total has been set way too high Sunday considering the Chiefs have a terrible offense and the Giants have one of the best defenses in the league. New York pitched a shutout last week in a 24-0 road win at Tampa Bay, keeping the Bucs without a first down until late in the 3rd quarter. This defense is the real deal, and the Chiefs will not put up more than 10 points in this game. K.C. is only averaging 16.0 points/game this season and 264 yards/game. New York is allowing 16.0 points/game and 245 yards/game on the season. The Giants are 50-21 UNDER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. New York is 15-5 UNDER vs. terrible teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this series. Kansas City won't score more than 10, and the Giants won't score more than 28 in this defensive battle. Cash in with the UNDER 42.5 points.

WUNDERDOG

Tampa Bay at Washington
Pick: Tampa Bay +9

These teams are both desperate for a win as the Bucs enter 0-3 and the Skins at 1-2. They know that their division hopes will vanish with a loss here. And yes, Tampa Bay is one of a few teams laying claim to worst in the NFL thus far. But the Skins laying 9 points? What? The Redskins just lost to a team that had lost 19 straight games! Prior to that, they barely beat St. Louis as a 10 point favorite. That St. Louis win came with some luck as the Rams (who have lost 13 straight by the way) fumbled the ball inside the Washington 10 yard line late in the game. So, the Skins could easily be 0-3, and they haven't surpassed 17 points scored in a game yet this season. So an ugly loss to an 0-19 team, and a come-from-behind two-point win over an 0-13 team warrants this line? Change will be blowing in the wind in Washington as Bucs' first-year head coach Raheem Morris is going with QB Josh Johnson in this one. While a QB making his first start may scare some folks, Ben Roethlisberger, JoeFlacco, Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez have shown that the old stigma assigned to inexperienced QBs is just that - old. While Johnson is not of the caliber of those QBs, his start does not automatically make the Bucs a no-play here. The Redskins have not been able to get it done in this spot as they are 1-7 ATS against teams with a .333 winning percentage or less and 0-5 ATS as a favorite of six or more. As mentioned, the Washington offense has been no where to be found. They have produced just 40 points on the season or 13 per game. The Redskins are on a 3-14-3 ATS run against teams with a losing record. This line indicates that the Redskins are a much, much better team. But, when are they going to show it? The Bucs are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following three straight losses and I'm going with them here.

Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Dallas -3 vs Denver
Cincinnati -6 vs Cleveland
New Orleans -7 vs NY Jets
Minnesota/Green Bay Over 45

Single Plays

Tennessee -3 vs Jacksonville
NY Giants -8.5 vs Kansas City
Baltimore +2 vs New England
Baltimore/New Engalnd Under 44.5
Chicago/Detroit Over 39

SPORTS ADVISORS

Oakland (1-2, 2-1 ATS) at Houston (1-2 SU and ATS)

The Texans, who have already faltered twice at home, again take to the Reliant Stadium grass when they host the offensively challenged Raiders.

Houston went back-and-forth with winless Jacksonville on Sunday but managed just three points in the second half – on a third-quarter field goal – and lost 31-24 as a four-point home favorite. QB Matt Schaub (26 of 35, 300 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had his second straight solid start, but the Texans gave up 119 rushing yards and three TDs to RB Maurice Jones-Drew as the Jaguars racked up 184 yards on the ground.

Oakland got drubbed by Denver 23-3 as a one-point home pup Sunday, finishing with a paltry 137 total yards. QB JaMarcus Russell was dismal again, going 12-for-21 for just 61 yards while throwing two INTs, and the Raiders finished with just nine first downs. They also lost the turnover battle 3-1, had a 12½-minute deficit in time of possession and gave up 215 rushing yards.

Houston is 3-1 SU and ATS in four total meetings in this rivalry, though Oakland earned a 27-16 home upset as a seven-point ‘dog last December. The underdog has won and cashed in all four contests.

Despite the Texans’ 1-2 ATS start, they remain on pointspread runs of 7-3 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss and 4-1 after a non-cover, though they’ve gone just 1-8 ATS in their last nine October starts. The Raiders had a four-game ATS win streak halted last week versus Denver (all as an underdog) and are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, but they carry negative pointspread streaks of 20-41-1 after a non-cover, 17-35-1 against losing teams and 8-18 in October.

The over for Houston is on rolls of 17-4-1 after a SU loss and 20-8-1 after an ATS setback, but the under has hit in five of the Texans’ last seven games against AFC foes. For Oakland, the under is on runs of 8-3-1 overall, 8-2-1 after a SU loss, 6-2-1 against the AFC and 7-3-1 as an underdog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON

Tennessee (0-3, 1-2 ATS) at Jacksonville (1-2, 2-1 ATS)

The Titans, who led the NFL with a 13-3 mark in regular-season play last year, head to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium in dire need of a victory when they take on the division rival Jaguars.

Tennessee fought back from a 14-0 first-quarter deficit against the Jets to take a 17-14 lead, but couldn’t finish it off in a 24-17 road loss Sunday as a one-point pup. QB Kerry Collins (15 of 37, 170 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) finished the game with 13 straight incompletions, and although the Titans outgained New York 286-229, they also had four turnovers, including two fumbles on special teams that led to two New York touchdowns.

Jacksonville upset Houston 31-24 as a four-point road pup Sunday, allowing just three second-half points to win for only the second time in its last 10 games (3-7 ATS), a skid dating to last November. QB David Garrard (18 of 30, 214 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) wasn’t flashy, but he protected the football, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (23 carries, 119 yards, 3 TDs) had a big day, including a 61-yard TD jaunt in the second quarter and the game-winning TD early in the fourth. The Jags finished with 184 rushing yards.

Tennessee is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five clashes in this AFC South rivalry, winning and covering in both meetings last year, including a 24-14 road victory laying one point in November. The Titans are 5-2 ATS on their last seven visits to Jacksonville, but the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Titans are on ATS skids of 1-4 overall and 0-4 giving points, but they remain on positive pointspread upticks of 7-2 against losing teams, 7-2 after a non-cover, 12-4 inside the division and 18-7 on the highway. The Jaguars are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 starts as a home pup, but they are otherwise stuck in ATS ruts of 3-7 overall, 1-8 at home, 2-6 against the AFC and 2-6 against losing teams.

Tennessee is on “under” runs of 9-3 on the road, 4-1 as a road chalk and 6-0 with the Titans laying three points or less, and the under for Jacksonville is on streaks of 7-2 with the Jags getting points and 8-2 with Jack Del Rio’s troops installed as a home dog of three or less. Also, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in nine of the last 13 clashes in Jacksonville.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Baltimore (3-0 SU and ATS) at New England (2-1, 1-2 ATS)

The Ravens put their unbeaten mark on the line when they travel to Gillette Stadium for a battle with the Patriots.

Baltimore pounded overmatched Cleveland 34-3 Sunday and easily cashing as an overwhelming 13½-point home chalk, moving to 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight dating to last December. QB Joe Flacco (25 of 35 for 342 yards, no INTs) had a huge day, including hurling a 72-yard TD pass to Derrick Mason. The Ravens’ defense posted four INTs in winning the turnover battle 4-1 and held the Browns to just 186 total yards, while Baltimore’s offense churned out 479 yards.

New England struggled a bit before scoring 10 fourth-quarter points to put away Atlanta 26-10 as a 4½-point home favorite Sunday. QB Tom Brady (25 of 42, 277 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a solid day, and veteran RB Fred Taylor (21 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) came up big as the Pats outgained the Browns 445-257 in total yards.

These teams last met in December 2007, with New England rallying for a 27-24 road win en route to its unbeaten regular season. However, Baltimore easily covered as an eye-popping 19-point underdog to end a three-game ATS run by the Pats in this rivalry.

The Ravens are on nothing but positive pointspread runs, including 18-5 overall, 5-1 on the road, 6-1 against the AFC, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 13-3 after a SU win, 8-3 as a ‘dog and 5-0 catching three points or less. The Patriots are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 October affairs, but they are on ATS slides of 4-11 at home (all as a chalk), 5-13 after a SU win and 3-9 after a spread-cover.

The over for Baltimore is on tears of 7-2-1 on the highway and 6-1-1 with the Ravens as a road pup, while the over for New England is on upswings of 7-3 overall (all as a favorite), 4-1 at home and 5-2 in conference action.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE

Cincinnati (2-1 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (0-3 SU and ATS)

The Bengals, off to a surprising start, make the short instate trip to Cleveland Municipal Stadium to face the struggling Browns.

Cincinnati posted its second upset in as many weeks last Sunday, dumping defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh 23-20 as a 3½-point home ‘dog, on the heels of an upset win at Green Bay as a nine-point pup. QB Carson Palmer (20 of 37, 183 yards, no INTs) had just one TD pass, but he made it count on a 4-yard strike to Andre Caldwell followed by a successful 2-point conversion with just 18 seconds remaining to give the Bengals the win despite being outgained 373-273 and having a nearly nine-minute deficit in time of possession.

Cleveland got hammered at Baltimore 34-3 Sunday as a 13½-point underdog, falling to 0-9 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games, as the Browns finished 2008 on a six-game slide. Brady Quinn passed for just 34 yards, with one INT, before getting yanked at halftime. Derek Anderson – who will start this week – relieved Quinn and threw three INTs in the second half while going 11 of 19 for 92 yards. The Browns got outgained 479-186 and lost the turnover battle 4-1.

These AFC North rivals have alternated SU and ATS wins over the past five meetings, with the visitor winning and cashing in both of last year’s contests, including the Bengals’ 14-0 December victory as a three-point ‘dog. The underdog is also on a 4-0 ATS run.

The Bengals are on ATS skids of 2-8 as a chalk, 4-10 against the AFC and 2-5 inside the division, but they currently sport positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 overall and 4-1 following a SU win. The Browns have cashed in their last five October starts, but the ATS streaks spiral downward from there, including 1-10-1 overall, 0-5-1 at home, 0-5 against winning teams, 0-6 as an underdog and 0-4 against AFC North rivals.

The under is on tears for Cincinnati of 5-2 overall, 5-0 with the Bengals favored and 4-0-1 against losing teams, and the under for Cleveland is on surges of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in the division and 4-1-1 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five clashes overall – including the last three in a row -- and eight of the last 10 in Cleveland.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

N.Y. Giants (3-0, 2-1 ATS), at Kansas City (0-3 SU and ATS)

The surging Giants look to remain unbeaten as they play their third straight road game, while the Chiefs continue to seek new coach Todd Haley’s first win in this non-conference clash at Arrowhead Stadium.

New York shut out Tampa Bay 24-0 Sunday laying six points, winning and covering on the road for a second consecutive week and improving to 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games. Eli Manning (14 of 21, 161 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient, letting Ahmad Bradshaw (14 carries, 104 yards) and Brandon Jacobs (26 carries, 92 yards, 1 TD) do the heavy lifting as the Giants rolled up 226 rushing yards. The Giants’ defense stole the show, though, holding the Bucs’ hapless offense to 86 yards and five first downs (all of which came in the final 1½ quarters).

Kansas City got pelted at Philadelphia 34-14 as a nine-point ‘dog, falling to 2-17 SU (8-11 ATS) in its last 19 games since the 2008 season opener. QB Matt Cassel threw for two TDs, with no INTs, but his 14-of-18 effort yielded just 90 yards, and the Chiefs finished with 196 total yards while allowing 420, including 327 through the air.

In two meaningful meetings this decade between these teams, New York has gone 2-0 SU and ATS, most recently prevailing 27-17 as a 2½-point home chalk in December 2005.

The Giants are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 35-17-2 overall, a sterling 21-5 on the highway (12-2 last 14), 7-1 as a road chalk, 16-5-1 in October and 21-7 following an ATS win. On the flip side, the Chiefs are on ATS declines of 0-5 overall, 0-5 after a SU loss, 0-4 after a non-cover, 0-4 as a pup and 3-11 at Arrowhead.

New York is on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 after a SU win, and the total has remained low in the last four meetings in this rivalry. Conversely, K.C. is on “over” tears of 6-2 at home and 7-1 as a home pup.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS

Detroit (1-2 SU and ATS) at Chicago (2-1 SU and ATS)

The Lions, coming off their first win since 2007, aim for two in a row when they travel to Soldier Field to face the Bears in an NFC North contest.

Detroit upset Washington 19-14 as a 6½-point home ‘dog Sunday, ending a 19-game losing skid (7-12 ATS) that dated to a 25-20 home win over Kansas City on Dec. 23, 2007. The Lions got out to a 13-0 lead and held on from there, with rookie QB Matthew Stafford (21 of 36, 241 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) leading a turnover-free offense that also got 101 rushing yards on 16 attempts from Kevin Smith. The Lions’ defense allowed just 65 rushing yards.

Chicago topped Seattle 25-19 as a one-point road chalk in Week 3, rallying from a 13-0 first-half deficit. QB Jay Cutler (21 of 27, 247 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a solid outing, connecting with Devin Hester on the winning 36-yard TD pass with two minutes remaining. It was an otherwise evenly played game, as the Bears finished with 318 yards and two turnovers while allowing 346 yards and forcing a pair of turnovers.

Detroit is 4-1 ATS (2-3 SU) in the last five clashes with Chicago, most recently cashing as a heavy 12½-point road pup in a 27-23 loss last November. The underdog is on an 8-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.

The Lions carry negative ATS streaks of 0-4 after a SU win, 1-5 after a spread-cover and 1-11 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. However, they have covered in six of their last seven road games, all from the underdog role, and they are on further ATS upswings of 4-1 in division play and 10-4-1 when catching double digits. The Bears are on a 10-4 ATS tear in October, but they are otherwise on pointspread skids of 0-5 against NFC North foes, 5-16-2 after a SU win and 4-10-1 as a home chalk.

The over for Detroit is on streaks of 17-7-1 overall, 20-6 on the highway, 10-2-1 against winning teams, 5-0 after a SU win and 9-1-1 after a spread-cover, and the over for Chicago is on rolls of 29-13-1 against the NFC and 17-5 with the Bears favored at home. Also, in this rivalry, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Tampa Bay (0-3 SU and ATS) at Washington (1-2 SU and ATS)

The Buccaneers, still seeking their first win under new coach Raheem Morris, head to FedEx Field to take on the scuffling Redskins, who are coming off a humbling loss.

Tampa Bay got blanked by the Giants 24-0 Sunday as a six-point home pup, the team’s seventh consecutive defeat (1-6 ATS). The Bucs finished with an absolutely dismal 86 total yards and five first downs. Starting QB Byron Leftwich played into the fourth quarter, yet mustered just 22 passing yards on a 7-of-16 effort, with one INT. The Bucs’ defense yielded 397 yards, including 226 on the ground.

Second-year QB Josh Johnson replaced Leftwich against New York and has been named the starter for this game.

Washington allowed Detroit to snap its 19-game losing skid in a 19-14 setback as a 6½-point road favorite last Sunday. QB Jason Campbell (27 of 41, 340 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) finished with solid numbers, but the Redskins trailed 13-0 at halftime and couldn’t complete the comeback against a team that hadn’t won since 2007. Washington ran for just 64 yards while allowing 154, leading to a nearly 14-minute time-of-possession deficit.

Tampa Bay is 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) in the last four meetings in this rivalry, including a 19-13 home win laying 3½ points in the most recent clash in November 2007. The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 contests, and the favorite is on a 5-1-1 ATS roll.

The Buccaneers are on spread-covering slides of 0-5 overall, 1-7 against losing teams, 1-5 getting points, 1-4 against NFC foes and 4-8 as a non-division road pup. Likewise, the Redskins are on ATS dives of 1-7-3 overall, 1-6 at FedEx Field, 3-14-3 against losing teams and 0-4 as a home chalk.

Tampa Bay is on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 11-1 against losing teams and 12-4 following a double-digit home loss. Conversely, for Washington, the under is on stretches of 13-3-1 overall, 8-0 at home, 8-0-1 with the Redskins favored and 8-2-1 against NFC opponents.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Seattle (1-2 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (3-0, 2-1 ATS)

The Colts put their unbeaten mark on the line when they play host to the Seahawks at Lucas Oil Stadium in a non-conference contest.

Indianapolis ripped defending NFC champion Arizona 31-10 Sunday night as a three-point road pup, winning and cashing for the second straight week on the road. QB Peyton Manning had a huge night, completing 24 of 35 passes for 375 yards and four TDs with one INT, and the Colts amassed a whopping 505 total yards while allowing 323. Indy also forced three turnovers – including a fumble at its own 5-yard line and an INT in the end zone.

Seattle fell to Chicago 25-19 as a one-point home pup Sunday, giving up a Jay Cutler-to-Devin Hester TD pass with two minutes remaining in a game it led 13-0 in the second quarter. QB Seneca Wallace, subbing for Matt Hasselbeck (broken rib), went 26 of 44 for 261 yards with one TD and one INT, but the Seahawks mustered just six second-half points – on a pair of fourth-quarter field goals from Olindo Mare, who also missed two makeable field goals.

Hasselbeck almost certainly will not play today.

Outside of preseason play, these teams have met just twice in the past nine years, with Indianapolis taking a 37-24 road win laying six points in October 2000, and Seattle winning 28-13 giving 10 points at home on Christmas Eve 2005 when the Colts rested several starters in what was a meaningless game for them.

The Colts are on a 3-8 ATS purge on their home field and are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 starts coming off a spread-cover, but they are on ATS upticks of 4-1-1 against losing teams, 4-1 after a SU win and 7-2 in October. The Seahawks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last dozen following a non-cover, but they are on a 6-21 ATS freefall in October and a 2-5-1 ATS skid against winning teams. Seattle is also 9-21 ATS in its last 30 non-division roadies.

The under is on runs of 8-3-1 overall for Seattle, 7-2 for the Seahawks against winning teams, 4-1 overall for Indy and 5-2 for the Colts at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER

N.Y. Jets (3-0 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (3-0 SU and ATS)

A battle of unbeatens takes place in the Big Easy when the surprising Jets square off against the high-octane Saints at the Superdome.

New York held off Tennessee 24-17 Sunday giving one point at home, staying perfect SU and ATS this year following a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS skid that killed its 2008 season. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez (17 of 30, 171 yards, 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, 1 INT) wasn’t flashy but did just enough for the Jets, including crashing into the end zone on a 14-yard TD run on the game’s opening possession. New York finished with just 229 total yards, while allowing 286, but it won the turnover battle 4-2, scoring two touchdowns off of two Tennessee special-teams fumbles

New Orleans bounced host Buffalo 27-7 laying 5½ points Sunday, holding the Bills scoreless in the second half. QB Drew Brees (16 of 29, 172 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) had a sub-par game by his standards, but the Saints rolled up 222 rushing yards, paced by RB Pierre Thomas (14 carries, 126 yards, 2 TDs), who averaged a whopping 9 yards per carry. New Orleans allowed just 243 total yards and had a seven-minute time-of-possession edge.

These teams have split two regular-season meetings this decade SU and ATS, with the road team winning and cashing each time. Most recently, New Orleans prevailed 21-19 as a 2½-point pup in November 2005.

The Jets are on pointspread surges of 5-0 as a ‘dog, 4-0 as a road pup, 6-1 after an ATS win, 7-2 after a SU win and 5-2 against winning teams. However, they also carry negative ATS streaks of 1-7 in October and 2-7 against the NFC on the road. The Saints are on an 8-1-1 ATS tear overall and sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 at home, 10-1 as a chalk, 7-0 laying 3½ to 10 points and 5-1 against AFC opponents.

For New York, the under is on upticks of 4-1 overall and 7-3-1 on the road. Meanwhile, the over for New Orleans is on rolls of 20-8-1 overall, 12-1-1 at the Superdome, 14-5-1 with the Saints favored and a lengthy 45-20-2 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER

Buffalo (1-2, 2-1 ATS) at Miami (0-3 SU and ATS)

A season after claiming the AFC East title, the Dolphins are still searching for their first win of the 2009 campaign, and if they get it today against the Bills at Land Shark Stadium, it will have to be with a new quarterback.

Miami lost to San Diego 23-13 as a 5½-point road underdog Sunday, and they lost QB Chad Pennington in the process. Pennington (8 of 12, 54 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was unproductive before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in the third quarter. Chad Henne (10 of 19, 92 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT) subbed for Pennington and now assumes the starting role. The Dolphins rushed for 149 yards last week and had a five-minute edge in time of possession, but Henne’s INT was returned for a TD that put the game away.

Buffalo had little for New Orleans on Sunday, losing 27-7 as a 5½-point home pup. QB Trent Edwards was 20 of 35 for a pedestrian 156 passing yards with no TDs and one INT. The Bills allowed the normally pass-happy Saints to rack up 222 rushing yards and a seven-minute time-of-possession advantage. Buffalo’s rushing attack should get a boost this week with the return of RB Marshawn Lynch, who sat out the first three games on suspension.

Miami won and covered in both meetings in this rivalry last year, including a 25-16 home victory laying one point in October. Prior to that, Buffalo was on a 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS roll against the Dolphins.

The Dolphins are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 0-4 overall, 1-5 as a home ‘dog, 8-23-1 against losing teams, 8-21-2 within the AFC East and 15-36-1 in Miami. The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven division starts, but they are on positive ATS runs 7-3 on the road (4-0 last four), 4-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a double-digit home loss and 25-7-1 against losing teams.

The over for Buffalo is on rolls of 4-0 on the road, 4-0 after a SU loss, 7-3-1 as a chalk and 6-2 as a road favorite. The under for Miami is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1 with the Dolphins as a pup, 5-2 at home, 5-2 in division play and 7-3 against AFC foes. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings overall and five of the last seven in Miami.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and UNDER

St. Louis (0-3, 2-1 ATS) at San Francisco (2-1, 3-0 ATS)

The 49ers, coming off a gut-wrenching Week 3 loss, return home with a good chance to get back on track when they host the dismal Rams at Candlestick Park.

San Francisco had Minnesota on the ropes last Sunday before losing 24-20 as a seven-point road ‘dog on Brett Favre’s 32-yard TD toss to Greg Lewis with two seconds left in the game. QB Shaun Hill (15 of 25, 195 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was serviceable, but he likely missed star RB Frank Gore, who left the game after just one carry due to an ankle injury. The 49ers got outgained 377-246 and also gave up a 101-yard Percy Harvin kick return for a TD.

St. Louis’ struggles continued with a 36-17 home loss to Green Bay last Sunday as a 6½-point pup for its 13th consecutive defeat (5-8 ATS). QB Marc Bulger (3 of 4, 23 yards) left in the second quarter with a shoulder injury, and Kyle Boller (16 of 31, 164 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was fair as a substitute, boosted by Steven Jackson’s 117 rushing yards on 27 carries. But the Rams had three turnovers while forcing none.

Gore is expected to miss at least the next two games, while Bulger will serve as the Rams’ No. 3 quarterback if he dresses, meaning Boller will start

San Francisco won both its games last year against St. Louis, splitting the cash, including a 35-16 home victory as a seven-point chalk in November. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes overall and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings at The Stick, but the underdog has cashed in seven of the last nine clashes.

The Rams are on pointspread freefalls of 7-15 overall (all as an underdog), 5-13 against winning teams and 3-12 versus NFC West foes. The 49ers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 October starts and 9-19-2 ATS in their last 30 from the favorite’s role, but they are on pointspread rolls of 8-2-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 in division play.

San Francisco is on “over” streaks of 10-4 as a favorite and 5-2 at home, but the under for the Niners is on stretches of 6-2 overall and 13-6 against NFC West rivals. St. Louis is on “under” runs of 6-2-1 overall, 4-1-1 in the division, 19-9 on the road and 13-6 with the Rams as a road pup. Also, the under has been the play in five of the last six meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and UNDER

Dallas (2-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (3-0 SU and ATS)

The Broncos put their surprising unbeaten mark on the line at Invesco Field in a non-conference clash with the Cowboys.

Denver rolled over offensively challenged Oakland 23-3 Sunday as a one-point road favorite, winning and cashing for the third straight week after ending the 2008 campaign on streaks of 0-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. QB Kyle Orton (13 of 23, 157 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) got plenty of help from RBs Correll Buckhalter (14 carries, 108 yards) and rookie Knowshon Moreno (21 carries, 90 yards, 1 TD) as the Broncos gashed the Raiders for 215 yards. Denver’s defense allowed just 137 total yards and has given up a total of 16 points (one touchdown) this season.

Dallas bounced back from its last-second home loss to the Giants by beating Carolina 21-7 Monday night as a heavy nine-point home chalk. QB Tony Romo (22 of 33, 255 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense, and RBs Felix Jones and Tashard Choice combined for 176 rushing yards. But the Cowboys still needed Terence Newman’s 27-yard INT return for a TD to put the game away and cover the number.

These teams have met twice this decade in regular-season play, with Denver going 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS). In the most recent clash in November 2005, the Broncos won 24-21 in overtime as a two-point road favorite.

The Broncos have cashed in all three games this season and are on a 6-1-1 ATS run as a home ‘dog, but they remain on a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 13-29-1 overall, 7-19-1 at Mile High, 6-17-1 after a SU win, 5-13 against winning teams and 3-9 against the NFC.

The Cowboys have failed to cover in five of their last seven roadies and are 1-4 ATS in their last five starts versus winning teams and 2-5 ATS in their last seven against AFC opponents. However, they are on ATS upswings of 7-2 as a favorite, 7-1-1 as a chalk of three or less and 4-0 as a road favorite of the same price.

The under for Denver is on tears of 10-4-1 overall (3-0 this year), 8-0 after a SU win and 6-1 at home, but the over is 10-4-2 in the Broncos’ last 16 starts as an underdog. The over for Dallas is on runs of 4-1 overall, 7-2 after a SU victory, 7-2 in October, 5-2 on the road and 14-5-2 with the Cowboys favored on the highway. Finally, the last four meetings in this rivalry have cleared the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

San Diego (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh (1-2, 0-3 ATS)

The Steelers, surprising losers of two in a row, look to regain their Super Bowl championship form when they host the Chargers in prime time at Heinz Field.

Pittsburgh stumbled at Cincinnati 23-20 Sunday giving 3½ points for its second consecutive SU and ATS loss, both from the favorite’s role. The Steelers led 20-9 entering the fourth quarter, but they gave up TD drives of 85 and 71 yards, with the Bengals getting the game-winning TD with just 18 seconds remaining. QB Ben Roethlisberger (22 of 31, 276 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and RB Willie Parker (25 carries, 93 yards) helped Pittsburgh post a 373-273 yardage edge, and the Steelers had a more than nine-minute edge in time of possession.

San Diego topped Miami 23-13 as a 5½-point home favorite, covering for the first time this season. QB Philip Rivers paved the way, going 18 of 33 for 303 yards, with no TDs but also no INTs, and WR Vincent Jackson (5 catches, 120 yards) also had a big day. Defensively, the Chargers got an INT return for a TD from Eric Weddle to seal the victory, but still gave up 149 rushing yards. San Diego’s defense is surrendering 142.3 rushing yards per contest, but Pittsburgh’s running is only netting 66.3 ypg.

The Chargers were without star RB LaDainian Tomlinson (ankle), but he is expected back tonight..

These two squads met twice last year, with Pittsburgh going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS, both at home. In November, the Steelers squeaked out an ugly 11-10 win laying 4½ points – failing to cover when the officials mistakenly ruled a fumble return for a touchdown as non-advanceable. Then in the divisional playoff round, they won 35-24 as a 6½-point chalk.

Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, with the favorite also 6-2 ATS in that span, and the Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Pittsburgh. San Diego has also dropped 13 consecutive regular-season games at Pittsburgh.

Dating to their Super Bowl win, the Steelers have dropped four straight ATS decisions (all as a chalk), but they remain on pointspread rolls of 5-1 at home (all as a favorite), 6-2 against winning teams, 19-7 laying 3½ to 10 points and 24-9-1 in October. The Chargers are on positive ATS runs of 19-7-3 as a ‘dog, 10-2-1 catching 3½ to 10 points and 20-9-1 against the AFC, but they’ve cashed in just two of their last eight road games and are on a 2-6 ATS skid following a spread-cover.

The over for Pittsburgh is on tears of 46-20-2 at home, 4-0 against winning teams and 14-5 against the AFC, and the over for San Diego is on streaks of 6-2 overall, 18-6-2 on the highway and 7-3-1 with the Chargers as a road pup. That said, the under has hit in three of the last four meetings between these two teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Matt Fargo

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Chicago Bears -10

Words cannot really describe how big that win was for Detroit last week against the Redskins. The victory snapped a 19-game losing streak and after the game head coach Jim Schwartz called it like a playoff atmosphere so I think we have a good idea what that entails for this week. While the Lions certainly do not want to start another losing streak, they will be hard-pressed to get up again, especially on the road. The Detroit victory actually helps us here as well. Not only do we get extra line value but the Bears will not be taking this team lightly. That should be emphasized especially after the Lions nearly knocked off the Bears last November at Soldier Field. And that was when the Lions were in the middle of their 19-game losing skid. I thought the Bears might be in for a slight letdown last week in Seattle but they responded pretty well in a tough environment. Heading home means a possible 3-1 record is on tap right before the break so any sort of letdown from that last minute victory over the Seahawks is moot. If not for a last minute drive by the Packers in the opener, Chicago could be undefeated right now but at the same time, the Bears are a couple of plays away from being 0-3 so while confidence is high, there is hardly an aura over overconfidence surrounding them. After looking awful against the Green Bay Packers in the season opener, Jay Cutler has stepped up and been a top quarterback against stingy Pittsburgh and Seattle defenses. The Lions are allowing 75 percent from opposing quarterbacks with 10 touchdowns and a league worst quarterback rating this season and Cutler has gone over 70 percent in his past two games so that sets up well. Detroit plans to do a lot of blitzing this Sunday but that actually may help out cause here. According to Stats Inc., Cutler is a blitz beater, as he is ranked 8th in passer rating throwing the ball in blitz passing situations His patience and poise in the face of a blitz and the ability to still make throws no matter how his body is positioned is significant. The Lions defensive line managed to disrupt the Redskins offense throughout the team's win Sunday as the Redskins managed to score only 14 points, and much of that had to do with the two fumbles and two picks forced by the Lions defensive line. It is safe to say that the Bears offense, especially the offensive line, is better than that of Washington. Matthew Stafford is starting to settle in at quarterback for the Lions but he is hardly comfortable right now. He has a passer rating of 57.0 which is actually dead last in all of football for qualified quarterbacks. His rating has improved as each game has gone along, topping out with a decent 87.8 last week against the Redskins, but this will be another tough test and it come in his first start of the season that takes place outdoors. The Bears have provided a pretty good pass rush this season, but short passes could easily offset any pass rush they may generate against the Lions. The question is whether Stafford is comfortable yet to read those hot reads and I say no at this stage in his first season. The Vikings did a great job in bottling him up and Chicago is just as capable especially on their home field. There is one big situation that is favoring Chicago this weekend and it goes back to the bye week coming up as mentioned before. Play on favorites of 6.5 to 15 points that have a bye the following week. This simple yet solid situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 2002 with the average score differential being +19.7 ppg. 3* Chicago Bears

Tony George

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots
Play: Baltimore +1.5

Clearly DEFENSE wins in the NFL at days end, unless you are the Saints! New England's exit of talent on the defensive side of the ball has affected their chemistry this season, and it has been apparent with teams that run the ball then open the pass up. Losing guys like Seymour, Vrable, Bruschi, and Harrison has really set them back this season. On the other side of the ball, Ray Lewis and company may be aging, but they are showing little signs of it with new blood being filtered in every year and to date they are not missing a beat. They are fast, physical and make big plays when needed.

The running game of the Ravens here is a BIG key in this game with Ray Rice and Willie McGahee being a solid 1-2 punch, and QB Flaco has not dropped off from a great rookie season, but in fact with an expanded playbook and confidence from his coaches, looks better. Baltimore for the first time in ages, has a potent and balanced attack with the threat of a vertical passing game, and they have consistency, which is KEY!

New England found a running game last week against the Falcons and won a must win game, but teams like the Jets and Bills, who have an above average defense have given them fits, and Brady's pass protection has been in question all season long, and will be here without question this Sunday. On defense they are a funnel for thr un, and now their best player, Jared Mayo is hurt. Baltuimore is 11-2 ATS their 13 AFC matchups, and they have been ABOSULUTE MONEY in the bank covering all but 5 of their last 23 games, a bankable stat as a small road dog this week.

Baltimore 24 New England 17 - Lay the Wood

Jeff Hochman

Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans
Play: Houston Texans -9

Have you seen JaMarcus Russell attempt to play QB this season? It's laughable at times. The Raiders also start two rookies at the WR postion. That doesn't help either. The Texans know that if you stop the run against Oakland you will have an easy day of it. I know the Texans defense is not good to say the least, but they are playing a team that cannot move the ball through the air. With the Texans losing at home last week they should be plenty focused in the second of back-to-back home games. Ignore all the trends and take the Texans to win by at least 10 points.