John Ryan
New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +9
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on KC as they host the NY Giants set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 62% probability that KC will lose this game by 8 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-13 ATS for 75% winners since 1999. Play on home teams after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, and is a terrible team winning <=25% of their games and now playing a team with a winning record. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 66-33 ATS for 67% winners since 1983. Play against road teams with a poor rushing defense allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. Giants have won 3 straight and ATS while KC has lost 3 straight and ATS. Complete opposites, but given the parity in the NFL this is one of those games where on any given Sunday…… and most importantly the AiS shows a grading that KC just might play the Giants right down to the wire or possibly even win.
Rob Vinciletti
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +3
The Jaguars fit into 3 different systems today. What we want to do is play on week 4 under dogs of +1.5 or more that are 1-2 and off a win. These first time winners are 43-12 ats long term. The Titans fit into a negative system that plays against road teams that are 0-3 and coming off a previous road game provided today's opponent has at least 1 win on the season. This system has cashed over 85% of the time. The Public will be all over the Titans, with the belief that they are simply too good to lose 4 straight to open the season. Unfortunately for the Titans,last years results mean squat at this point as they have struggled against the pass this season. When installed as a road favorite vs less than .500 teams who have revenge they are just 2-8 ats. Look for the Titans to struggle once again.
Tommy Gill
Washington Redskins -7.0
I was hoped this line would not move but I know a lot about this Tampa team and I am 3-0 ATS against them this year. Washington I see in a big and I mean big statement game here with the Tampa offense which was their strength is going to take a big hit in this game. Tampa is bringing Josh Johnson as a starter in this game. If people dont know who this kid is I am going to write a nice detailed description about his and why I know he will fail bad in this game. Johnson was a 5th round pick last season and was on the verge of being but this year he only managed to play in 2 games in the preseason in the 4th quarter. He was also inactive for all of last year as Tampa 3rd string quarterback. Now he is a good athlete but like other teams will focus against the run for Tampa with him in at quarterback and make this kid pass to beat them. Washington does have a good rush defense especially with Hanseworth in the middle of that defense. Tampa is going to have a lot of problems moving the ball because they cant exploit the weakness of Washington which is their secondary. We all already know that Tampa has had a lot of injuries to their secondary and with another one that does not get off suspension to next week. Tampa is in trouble and I see a big rebound spot for Washington with Zorn having his job on the line this week if they lose. Tampa is 1-4 ATS their last 5 games vs. the NFC while also being 1-5 ATS their last 6 games on the road. Washington has some terrible numbers ATS as well but the home team is 7-3-1 in their last 11 meetings.
Marc Lawrence
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks take on the Colts in Indianapolis Sunday afternoon in an AFC non-division battle with Seattle looking to bounce back off back-to-back defeat while Indy looks to stay perfect on the season. The last time these two teams met was in 2005 in Seattle when they were 10-point favorites. With Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck banged up, they dress up as 10-point dogs today. That spells plenty of value here to the visitors, who are 10-1 ATS in game off back-to-back losses. With the Colts having a bigger game up next against division-rival Tennessee, the points become the play here today.
Scott Rickenbach
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
PICK: Oakland Raiders +9.5
We realize that Oakland has played some ugly football so far this season but this is the perfect spot for them to get a healthy cover. After an ugly performance last week versus Denver – the Raiders were embarrassed on their home turf – look for Oakland to take advantage of a porous Texans defense here. Simply put, this is too many points for Houston to be laying here. While the Texans offense has looked strong at times this season, their defense has still left much to be desired. We saw that first hand in watching their match-up with Jacksonville last week. Keep in mind, the Jaguars had been nothing special on offense so far this season but the Texans defense sure made them look special in that game. A big concern for Houston here is that they’ve had particular trouble stopping the run and the Raiders are definitely a “run-first offense” that will be looking to pound the interior of the Texans defense in this match-up. We absolutely feel they will have success in doing so. Houston’s defense currently ranks last in the league against the run. The Texans have given up 205 rushing yards per game with an average of 6.3 yards per carry.
Another situational aspect here that also favors the Raiders is that Oakland was blown out last week while the Texans lost a bit of a heart-breaker. It’s often easier to bounce back off of an ugly loss than it is to bounce back from a tight one where a team knows that it wasted an opportunity. The Texas were going in for the tying score late in their game versus Jacksonville Sunday but fumbled the ball away to allow the Jaguars to escape with the upset victory on the road. Speaking of underdog upset wins, note that the last four times the Raiders and Texas have met, the underdog has not only brought home the cash, they’ve also won the game outright! We’re certainly not suggesting a play on the money line here but we’re simply pointing out how much value the points have held in this series and this will be the 5th time in the last 6 seasons that these teams have met. In summary, the Texans – possessing one of the weakest defenses in the league so far this season – simply can’t be trusted laying this many points to a Raiders team that did cover it’s first two games this season before getting blown out at home by the Broncos last week. It’s bounce back time for Oakland here and we do feel that their defense, with the help on the defensive line from Seymour and Ellis, will continue to improve as the season goes on. Consider a small play on the RAIDERS on Sunday.
TEDDY COVERS
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
PICK: Over 39
The Lions finally ended their losing streak with a win against the Redskins last Sunday, but make no mistake about it – this defense is a bottom tier unit. The Lions are allowing a whopping 29 points per game. Washington’s anemic offense produced 390 yards against Detroit last week, and Jason Campbell became the third straight opposing quarterback to throw at will against the Lions secondary. The Lions have allowed a ridiculous 123.7 QB rating in their first three games, bad news against Jay Cutler and the Bears emerging passing attack.
Detroit has been an Over machine on the highway, 6-0 to the Over in their last six road tilts; allowing at least 27 points in each and every one of those games. Last year, we saw the two meetings between the Bears and the Lions totaled at 43 and 45.5. In ’07, both meetings were totaled in the 45 range. Yet this year, when both teams are stronger offensively than they’ve been in recent seasons, but no better defensively, the total is still sitting below 40 as I write this. Sunday’s weather forecast for Chicago indicates partly cloudy conditions with gametime temperatures in the 50’s, ideal football conditions.
The Bears defense struggled to contain lowly Seneca Wallace last week. The Bears have cluster injuries at linebacker, with Hunter Hillenmeyer and Pisa Tinoisamoa joining Brian Urlacher on the sidelines this week. Meanwhile, the Lions have shown some semblance of offensive progress with Matthew Stafford successfully able to stretch the field with deep balls to Calvin and Bryant Johnson. The injury concerns for starting running back Kevin Smith ensure that we’ll see plenty of pass attempts from both squads here, helping this game get up and Over the total. 2* Take the Over.
ALEX SMART
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
PICK: New Orleans Saints -7
The NY Jets (3-0) are fast becoming a big time public betting darling after taking out Tennessee and New England during the early part of their 2009/10 campaign. Despite of the Jets rise to popularity, I'm betting their in a bad spot here vs the leagues most explosive offensive team the New Orleans Saints (40 PPG). A huge reality check is in the cards for the Jets today in a hostile road environment vs another unbeaten team. Final notes & Key Trends: Saints are 9-1 ATS L/10 as a favorite winning SU by an average of 14.9 PPG. New Orleans is also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 The Jets have lost 4 in a row SU/ ATS away vs NFC opposition. Jets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Play on the New Orleans Saints
MTi Sports
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins
Prediction: Under
Washington was embarrassed last week by the Lions and that result points to the UNDER here. The Redskins are 0-9 OU (-9.7 ppg) after ANY ATS loss, 0-11 OU (-11.0 ppg) after ANY game in which they trailed at the half and 0-10 OU (-7.4 ppg) since late 2007 as a favorite. The Buccaneers are 0-8 OU (-11.4 ppg) since 2004 after allowing their opponent to convert at least 50% of third downs in a game in which they were the underdog and 0-6 OU (-10.4 ppg) on the road when they lost by 21+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent. Take these two UNDER.
Sal Michaels
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Buffalo Bills -1
These AFC East divisional foes are off to slow starts with Buffalo at 1-2 and Miami winless at 0-3. Miami took a big blow last week with Chad Pennington out for the remainder of the season and Chad Henne now at the helm at quarterback. Buffalo lost in a rout last weekend at home to New Orleans after looking good in the first two weeks despite blowing a fourth quarter lead to New England in week 1. T.O. was held catchless last weekend, a rarity for him in his career, and I expect him to get the ball quite a few times this weekend against a suspect D in Miami. I have a rare angle that hits at a 90+% clip and is undefeated this decade that favors Buffalo as well which makes this a double play for me of 2 units than my usual one unit plays.
EZWINNERS
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos +3
I don't believe the Broncos are as good as their 3-0 record, but I also don't believe the Cowboys should be laying points on the road here either. The Broncos are much improved on the defensive side of the ball and the combination of Moreno and Buckhalter have given the Denver offense a much needed ground threat. Tony Romo is still making some bad decisions and that will cost him against this improved secondary. Take the points.
winningpoints Bestbet*** lions by 7
Revenge**buff
Perf**tenn
ultrasharp**seattle
under**stl sf
VEGAS EXPERTS
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
The Lions continue to get no respect from the oddsmakers and we'll gladly take advantage noting Chicago is just 1-7 ATS the last eight times they've been asked to lay 10 or more points, not to mention 0-4 ATS off back to back SU wins. Detroit's last road win actually came here in the Windy City and last year they played the Bears tough here as well, losing 27-23, as 13-point dogs. Chicago is 1-7 SU in pre-bye week games.
Play on: Detroit
Frank Jordan
New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: New York Giants -9
The Giants are rolling through people and are coming off a 24-0 win at Tampa Bay to move to 3-0. Kansas City is in shambles and is winless being outscored by over 10 points a game. Look for the Giants running game to roll through the Chiefs on their way to a 4-0 start. Play NY Giants
Bob Wingerter
Seattle Seahawks vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Seattle Seahawks +10
Everything is against the Seahawks, right? They have to start Seneca Wallace at quarterback. They have to travel from the Pacific coast to play at 10 am, their time. The Colts are 3-0 , have won 13 straight regular season games, and Peyton Manning is God-like. No shot Seattle, right? Well, do you really want to lay 10 with a small defense all banged-up with injuries (the latest being important DE Dwight Freeney) and coming off a game against an opponent that couldn’t hurt them by running the ball? Take 3 in that situation (Indy last Sunday night at Arizona), don’t lay 10. Defensive back Dominique Rogers-Cromartie doesn’t play for the Seahawks and won’t be on the field to single-handedly lose the game for them.
Sammy Jankus
Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
3* Bucs-Redskins to go OVER the total of 37 points
At first glance, this looks like a pretty low number for two defenseless teams. But once you check out their incredibly inept offenses, it begins to make sense! The bungling Bucs are managing just 14 PPG so far this season while the reeling Redskins check in with a near-identical 13 PPG. Folks, mere words cannot describe just how AWFUL both these teams are playing now – Tampa was shut out last week, 24-0, while Washington was losing to Detroit – and if either outfit can cross the goal line here, I’ll be astonished. I think we’re looking at a 9-6 final in one of the season’s most boring contests – so your play is on OVER THE TOTAL.