Tom Freese
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 games and they are 4-1 ATS vs. NFC West teams. The 49'ers 4-1 ATS off an ATS Win and they are 7-2 ATS their last 9 games with the Rams. St. Louis is 23-47-1 ATS their last 71 games off a straight up loss and they are 6-15 ATS off a loss by 14 or more points. The Rams are 3-13 ATS after allowing more than 30 points in their last game and they are 5-13 ATS their last 18 games vs. winning teams. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO -
David Malinsky
3* CHICAGO WHITE SOX over DETROIT
3* KANSAS CITY over MINNESOTA
We will package these two together because they bring such similar concepts, and also extraordinary line value – you do not find teams with the limitations that these two favorites bring, and with starting pitchers in such awkward settings, favored by these stratospheric lines very often. But that is what happens when the oddsmakers must adjust for the market misconceptions about “need” games.
Justin Verlander has certainly given the Tigers their money’s worth this season, which is one of the reasons why they enter the final day with a chance to win the A.L. Central. But in order to get to this position Verlander has toiled to a dangerous level, throwing at least 123 pitches six times since August 13th, including counts of 128, 126 and 129 over his last three games. And note that in the nine games since hitting that 123 count vs. the Red Sox back in mid-August his ERA of 3.88 has been nothing special at all. He is a tough competitor, but does not bring the energy to sustain this price point, especially facing a Chicago team that has relished the spoiler’s role in this series, and brings John Danks right on form. Danks has allowed one run or none in three of his last four starts, and six of his last nine, including a complete-game win at Cleveland in his last outing.
Meanwhile Carl Pavano was awful under pressure vs. Detroit on Wednesday, getting shelled for seven runs in only 4.2 innings, and there is nothing in his history or makeup that suggests that he handles it any better here, especially working on only three days rest. And because he changed uniforms in the middle of the season it has been a unique draw vs. these Royals – this will be his 7th start against them this season, with the first six seeing him give up runs at a 6.63 allowance, including six home runs. He managed to get a win at Kansas City two starts back, but he allowed four runs on eight hits over six innings, with two homers, and a loose Royal team will bring plenty of confidence against him. Meanwhile starter Luke Hochevar will bring some confidence as well, having held the Twins to three runs over 14 innings of two earlier starts, and instead of this being a high-pressure setting for him he is actually stepping down in class after facing the Yankees and Red Sox in his last two starts.
Two hungry division rivals will bring as much energy to the field in the spoiler’s role as the over-priced favorites, who carry the burden of that pressure on their shoulders. Merely getting a split brings a nice return at these outlandish prices, and that gets us in the hunt in both games.
Larry Ness
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: New York Giants -8.5
The 3-0 Giants take on the 0-3 Chiefs in KC and this is as big of a mismatch on the field as it is on paper. The Chiefs rank 30th in total offense (264.3 YPG) and can hardly be expected to "break out" here vs a New York defense which ranks second in total D (245.3 YPG). Matt Cassel was expected to solve KC's QB woes but he's not surrounded by the kind of talent he was last year in New England (big surprise there!). The Chiefs sorely miss TE Gonzalez (in Atlanta) while the WR trio of Bradley, Bowe and Wade scares no one. The running game, once headed by the dangerous Larry Johnson, is now led by what looks to be a "washed up" Johnson, who has averaged 45.3 YPG on 2.5 YPC through three games. The Giants led the NFL in rushing last year and while they are not quite so formidable in the early part of this year, Jacobs and Bradshaw remain a very good duo. Eli continues to mature, as he enters this game third in the league with a 104.1 passer rating, behind only his brother and the red-hot Drew Brees (pretty good company). There was a lot of talk how the Giants would replace not only Burress but Toomer as well but Smith is second in the league with 23 catches (only Moss has more with 26) and Manningham (17 catches / 15.5 YPC) may be the deep threat the team was looking for. As for that Giant D, it will face a KC offense which accounted for 11 FDs and 188 total yards vs the Ravens in Week 1 plus 11 FDs and 196 yards vs the Eagles in Week 3. What should be different here? KC's woes are becomg quite a 'heavy' load these days. This year's 0-3 start comes on the heels of last year's 2-14 'nightmare,' which came on the heels of the team's nine-game losing streak at the end of the 2007 season. Doing the math and that's 26 losses in the last 28 games by the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Giants have gone a remarkable 16-3 ATS in their last 19 road games (including the '07 postseason) since the latter part of the 2006 season. Lay it!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Cincinnati Bengals -6
The Browns offense may be better this week with Derek Anderson, but not good enough in his first game back as starter. Cleveland ranks last in the NFL in total offense, averaging only 218 yards per game. And the defense still remains a huge liability. The Browns have lost 9 straight dating back to last season, being outscored 224-60 during their current slide. The Bengals are the obvious better side and only a letdown would cause them not to cover this number. I don't see it happening here as Cincy is hungry to get back in the playoff picture after several disappointing seasons. The Browns are a woeful 0-8-1 ATS during their 9 game losing streak. Bet the Bengals.
Jack Jones
New York Jets vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -7
New Orleans is the real deal and they will continue to prove that once again Sunday with a blowout home win over the New York Jets. The Jets have been winning games with their defense, but they don't have the offense to keep up with New Orleans on the scoreboard Sunday. The Saints proved last week that they could win with their defense, too, beating Buffalo 27-7. New Orleans is scoring 40.0 points/game while the Jets are only managing 21.3 points/game en route to their 3-0 start. Those offensive numbers aren't going to get it done Sunday. The Saints are a superb 9-1 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take New Orleans.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oakland Raiders +9
I don't think Houston's defense has what it takes to post a double digit win on the Raiders today. The underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this head-to-head series. Plus, plays on underdogs in a game involving two poor rushing teams - both outrushed by opponents by 40 or more yards per game, are 75-35 ATS since 1983. Also, plays on underdogs - poor team outrushed by opponents by 40 or more yards per game against a team who is outrushed by 60 or more yards per game are 34-11 ATS since 1983. Oakland keeps this one within the number.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Washington Redskins -7
The majority of the betting public is taking the points with the Bucs after watching the Redskins struggle to beat St. Louis and then lose to Detroit, but I'm not so fast to doubt Washington this week. The Redskins have a very talented roster and nothing ignites a team like losing to a team that had previously dropped 19 straight games. Jim Zorn is on the hot seat and he must call a better football game today. I have a feeling all of his plays will work better as last week's wake up call should have the Skins playing inspired football. The Bucs have lost by at least 13 points in each of their 3 contests, losing all 3 of those games ATS and the growing pains figure to continue with the decision to start Josh Johnson at QB. Dating back to last season, the Bucs have lost 7 straight games and are just 1-6 ATS in those contests. It would be absolutely disastrous for the Skins to go down in back-to-back weeks to 2 teams on long losing streaks. The home team is a strong 9-2 straight up and 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series. Advantage Washington.
Jr Tips
Chargers at Steelers
Pittsburgh tries to avoid its first three-game losing streak in three seasons Sunday night when it looks to maintain its home-field dominance over the San Diego Chargers. Coming off three-point losses at Chicago and Cincinnati, the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers (1-2) are off to their worst start since 2006, when they opened 1-3 and finished 8-8.Finishing has been a problem for Pittsburgh, which has been outscored 24-0 in the fourth quarter of its last two games.The Bears scored 10 unanswered in the final 6:21 to defeat the Steelers 17-14, and the Bengals had two touchdowns in the last 9:14 to pull out a 23-20 victory last Sunday.Pittsburgh has not lost three straight since Oct. 22-Nov. 5, 2006. The Steelers have won 34 of 43 at Heinz Field and the Chargers have never won in 13 regular-season matchups in Pittsburgh, while losing 35-24 at Heinz Field in the divisional round of last season's playoffs. LaDainian Tomlinson missed that game due to a groin injury as the Chargers were held to 15 yards rushing, and he could sit out a third consecutive game Sunday with a sprained right ankle. San Diego (2-1) is off to its best start in Norv Turner's three seasons as coach despite being last in the AFC with 66.3 rushing yards per game. Darren Sproles is averaging 2.4 per carry while getting most of the attempts in Tomlinson's place.Pittsburgh has the NFL's sixth-ranked run defense, allowing 76.7 yards per contest as they have their own ground game problems. It ranks 27th in the league with 81.0 yards per game and leading rusher Willie Parker missed practice Wednesday with a toe injury. San Diego has been strong in the passing game, ranked second in the league with 315.7 yards per contest with Philip Rivers off to a strong start.After throwing for a career-high 436 yards and two TDs in a 31-26 loss to Baltimore on Sept. 20, Rivers had 303 passing yards and a five-yard rushing touchdown in Sunday's 23-13 victory over Miami although the Chargers' only have 1 TD in 11 trips inside the red zone the last two weeks.San Diego linebacker Shawne Merriman is questionable against the Steelers after leaving in the third quarter last Sunday with a groin injury. Both teams have struggled scoring this year as the Steelers cannot run the ball while the Chargers acannot score in the red zone. In a must win game at home, the Steelers defense will have no problem stopping the 1 dimentional Chargers and keeping them out of the end zone where they had problems all year. The question is how many points can the Steelers manage to score as 20 points get them the win. LOok for a low scoring game as both teams will come in a conservative gameplan on offense.
TAKE UNDER 43
Jimmy the Moose
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
The Rams are off to a 0-3 SU start and 1-2 ATS this season. On offense St. Louis is averaging a horrible 8 points per game while allowing the opposition 24.3 PPG and that alone explains the 0-3 record. In their last 28 games vs. a divisional opponent the Rams are 8-20 ATS. St. Louis is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. a team with a winning record and in their last 56 road games vs. a team with a winning home record they are 17-38-1 ATS.
San Francisco have played the Cardinals, Seahawks and Vikings, three tough games to start the season and they are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The 49ers were a couple of seconds away from being a perfect 3-0 if not from another Brett Favre comeback win. San Francisco is averaging 22.3 PPG while giving up 17.7 per contest and they'll stifle the Rams today. The 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 divisional games.
The Rams are rebuilding while the 49ers are making big strides to get back to respectability. St. Louis is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 trips to San Francisco and the 49ers are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings overall between the clubs. The 49ers will take this one this afternoon.
Play on the San Francisco 49ers -
Bob Balfe
Lions/Bears Over 40.5
Detroit is coming off a huge win for the first time in more than a year and just imagine what practice was like this week for them going in as winners preparing for a Bears Defense that is not as scary as they once were. The Bears are very thin at the linebacker position which should allow the bigger Lions offense to score points. Detroit is in a ton of trouble as both starters on the right side of their defensive line are out and the left side is questionable. The Lions defense is bad to begin with and it could be a field day for Jay Cutler. Look for both teams to score a lot. Take the Over.