Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 5

DUNKEL INDEX

LA Angels at Kansas City
The Royals look to clinch the ALDS series tonight and face an Angels team that is 0-7 in C. J. Wilson's last 7 starts as an underdog. Kansas City is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130)

Game 917-918: Baltimore at Detroit (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 16.621; Detroit (Price) 15.559
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+160); Over

Game 919-920: LA Angels at Kansas City (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 15.109; Kansas City (Shields) 16.756
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Under

Carlo Campanella

Atlanta Falcons vs. NY Giants
Play: NY Giants -4

At first glance these teams are both 2-2 and you might want to back Atlanta. However, a closer looks shows that Atlanta's 2 wins are NOT as impressive as they once seemed, as they beat two struggling 1-3 teams in the Saints and Tampa Bay, who just won their first game of the year Sunday. Even worse has been Atlanta's play on the road, especially outdoors, where they've lost 24-10 at Cincinnati and last Sunday, 41-28, in Minnesota to a rookie QB making his first NFL start. Now they'll play in New York against an improving Giants team that's won 2 straight games by double digits, beating a good Houston (3-1) team, 30-17, and destroyed Washington, 45-14 on Thursday Night Football. One of these teams is going to win and own a winning record with Playoff possibilities...We're expecting that to be the improving G-Men, with 10 days to prepare since their Thursday victory and playing on their own turf!

Art Aronson

Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Houston Texans +4

Dallas has been a spread covering machine the past three weeks but I think the value will be with Houston in this rivalry game. The visiting Texans (3-1) showed their defensive might again in Week 4 with a 23-17 win at home over Buffalo. J.J. Watt had five tackles and six hits on the opposing QB to go with an interception that he ran in for a touchdown. The Texans won without getting a lot of production from star running back Arian Foster who suited up but rushed for just six yards. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been solid but not spectacular in the 3-1 start for a Houston team that was the worst in the NFL last season. The Dallas Cowboys (3-1) impressed everyone with a 38-17 win at home over New Orleans on prime time Sunday last week, RB DeMarco Murray continued his massive rushing season with 146 yards and two TD’s to help pace the well balanced offense. Tony Romo was 22-of-29 for 262 yards without an interception. With all due respect to the Cowboy’s three game winning streak though, a matchup with this defensively solid Texans team is going to be a stern wake up call in my opinion. Dallas struggled in Week 1 against a very good defense in San Francisco and it will be facing something similar here. Remember that the Cowboys are a much better team as the underdog in recent years, they are just 6-12 ATS as a favorite the past three seasons and only 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Houston has been impressive under the guidance of defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, the unit has become a master at disguising blitzing and rushing opposing QB’s with small fronts. With a far healthier Foster this week, the Texans offense will be much more dynamic. Expect this big contest in the heart of Texas to be a very competitive game where taking the points would seem to be the sound wager.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Tony Finn

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos
Play: Arizona Cardinals 8

It is hard to ignore some of the eye-popping trends that seem to rinse and repeat week-in and week-out in the NFL... so we won't. As was published prior to the fourth session of the NFL regular season, in the "Bye-Week Betting Previews: NFL Week 4", we dip our hand into that cookie jar using one of the previews for the Finn Factor NFL Week 5 Free Pick to Click.

It can be risky moving early on an NFL number six days before the game kicks. There are injuries that even Insiders don't know about and other news that may not present itself until later in the week. But we are privy to some of the sharp money that is ready to be thrown at the books in an attempt to jump a line move and all things being equal we are always ready to gamble twice on a game. The first wager is betting we move early and get the best number and the second is pushing in on the right side of the spread or total and actually adding to our bankroll's bottom line.

It isn't stepping out on a limb to suggest that the best teams in the league this young season, save the St Louis Cardinals, are coming off a bye-week. Arizona, Cincinnati, Denver, St. Louis, Seattle and Cleveland all received some rest and relaxation the past week. And yes, I believe it fair, to include the Browns into the mix of one of the better AFC teams in the league.

Who would have thought that Arizona -- with Drew Stanton making two starts -- would be undefeated?

Arizona had their doubters this preseason, even after they were 2-0 heading into a Week 3 showdown against San Francisco. The Cardinals had lost some key players including Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington, Darnell Dockett and even quarterback Carson Palmer. There were questions of ability and experience surrounding the healthy player personnel among this desert troop before last Sunday's contest with the 49ers. Backup quarterback Drew Stanton and a focused bunch of birds answered the questions by defeating a good 49ers team.

Arizona outscored the Niners, 17-0, in the second half with their strength, a physical and capable defense. Special teams blocked a field goal and the offense, under Stanton, were unpredictable and efficient. Stanton directed a mix and run that allowed receivers Michael Floyd and John Brown to find uncharacteristic holes in the San Francisco secondary. Brown registered a big day with two touchdowns in the game.

It is worth noting and wondering if this Arizona team wasn't good enough to challenge the best of the best a year ago. After all the 2013-14 version of the Cardinals, a 10-win team last year that missed the playoffs, finished behind two pretty good teams in their own right, Seattle and San Francisco, Is it too early to call this Phoenix/Chandler organization the real deal?
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It would be much easier to like Arizona and the points in this game, which will likely find the Cardinals getting 7-plus, if Denver were not coming off a bye week, too.

The value in this contest rests in on the Arizona Cardinals sidelines.

Mike Davis

Jacksonville +7

The public sees this situation as a chance for the Steelers to "bounce back" after an embarrassing loss at home versus Tampa Bay. However, the Jaguars are in a great position to play their best game of the year this Sunday at home. Blake Bortles makes his second NFL start and his first start at home. Although he threw two interceptions last week at San Diego, Bortles played well most of the game. He was 29-of-37 for 253 yards and a touchdown. Jacksonville's D has struggled, but they have played three great offenses (Eagles, Colts, Chargers). Pittsburgh's defense has struggled against three bad offenses (Browns, Ravens, Bucs). On top of that, Big Ben doesn't look like the same quarterback from years past. This is a perfect opportunity for Jacksonville to get their first win of the season. Take Bortles and the Jags.

Strike Point Sports

Cleveland +2

Seriously? Yes. Seriously, Tennessee favored? Nope. Not for me. This team in no way shape or form should be favored over anyone, and I mean anyone. The only reason they get this line is because of Cleveland's name. This Browns team has looked considerably better than the Titans, and they win this road game outright. I don't care that this game is at Tennessee as the Browns have already proven that they can play teams tough on the road, i.e. a 30-27 loss to Pittsburgh at Pittsburgh. Cleveland comes into this game off their bye while Tennessee comes into this game off two big losses to Cincinnati and Indianapolis. Not saying that the Browns are in that category, but the Titans have absolutely no confidence, and their offense is a mess. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between the two teams, and the Browns are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games versus a team with a losing home record. Tennessee, meanwhile, is 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games. Take the road dog in this one as they win this game outright. B

Wunderdog

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville
Pick: Over 47

The Pittsburgh Steelers don't often let games get away from them, but they allowed a pretty bad Tampa Bay team to steal one behind a semi-rookie quarterback in the final seconds last week, and allowed it to happen at home. That made three of four Steelers' opponents that have scored 26 points or more. When those teams are Carolina, Cleveland and Tampa Bay, it appears as if the Steelers' defense no longer has much bite. Fortunately for them they face Jacksonville in this one. The Jags haven't been able to slow anyone down. Jacksonville has allowed 152 points in four games or 38 points per game, so the Steelers should be in the end-zone often in this one. Jacksonville is 7-1 to the OVER in their last eight after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game, and all four of their games have topped the total this season. Since Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 23-13 OVER as a road favorite. Play on the OVER in this one.

SPORTS WAGERS

Atlanta +4½ over N.Y. GIANTS

The Giants have awoken from the dead. After looking unplayable and very sloppy in its first two games of the season against Detroit and Arizona, New York responded with wins over Houston and Washington and we’re focusing in on the latter. That was a Thursday night game in which the G-Men clobbered Washington and those featured games always have a bigger over/under reaction than any Sunday afternoon game because it is watched by the masses. We’re like everyone else in that it’s difficult to get a good read on a team that can look so bad one week and so good the next. We’re not clairvoyant either in knowing which of those Giants team will show up but here’s what we do know. The Giants stock is high after that nationally televised game, which once again sets up a sell high opportunity. We alo know that the Giants have Philadelphia and Dallas up next, with the former being another nationally televised game next Sunday at 8:30 PM. This is precisely the type of situation in which the Giants usually fall flat on their faces.

Enter the Falcons, a team that just put a serious beat down on the Buccaneers two weeks ago and that had a golden opportunity to get off to a 3-1 start, especially seeing as they were playing a Minnesota team that was without Adrian Peterson, Kyle Rudolph, its best run blocking offensive lineman and playing a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. Vegas reported that Atlanta took more money last week than any other team in the NFL and all that money went down the drain. That sticks in bettors minds. After losing with a team that they figured couldn’t lose, those same gamblers are very reluctant to come back on that same team the following week. That’s where we come in. We’ve often said the best time to jump on a team is when everyone jumps off and that applies here. This one sets up well for the Dirty Birds in that their stock is now low and they are perceived as a team that has no shot of winning on the road. Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off a blowout win over Washington in prime time and they have the Eagles and Cowboys on deck. Situational betting is a key component in our selection process and this one fits perfectly.

TENNESSEE -2 over Cleveland

We’re a month into the season and the Browns can be considered one of the surprise teams thus far with three extremely close games that all came down to the final drive. In Week 1, the Brownies rallied from a big deficit to nearly get by Pittsburgh. In Week 2, they caused a lot of ripped tickets when they defeated the overhyped Saints. In Week 3, Baltimore needed a FG on the final play of the game to defeat the Browns. That’s three games against three very recognizable teams, all decided by a combined seven points. The Brownies stock is high and that makes us sellers. Let us remind you that Cleveland has not won on the road since Sept. 13 of last season against Minnesota, a span of 375 days. Cleveland has lost 10 of its last 11 road games and 18 of its past 20. That may change here but they didn’t catch the Titans at the right time.

Remember the Titans? Tennessee was viewed as the only team with a legitimate shot at competing with Indianapolis for the AFC South title. After going into Kansas City and laying a beatin’ down in unfriendly confines, all those who had made them a trendy pick to be one of the up and coming teams in the AFC were full of themselves. Since then, they have lost by 16 at home to Dallas, by 26 at Cincinnati and by 27 at Indianapolis. Tennessee’s stock is WAY down and that makes us buyers. Jake Locker is back this week. Locker and HC Ken Whisenhunt have been working extensively together to improve Locker’s game. You can expect more rollouts, bootlegs and play-action this week from Locker and the Titans offense. Three intense games later, the inability to stop both the passing and running games (Cleveland ranks 27th and 29th in those two departments respectively) a vulnerability to losing on the road and the Titans being embarrassed for three straight weeks are all factors working against the Brownies in their bid for another cover. We’re stepping in.

INDIANAPOLIS -3½ over Baltimore

We played against the Ravens last week and got creamed. Anyone else that played against them also got creamed. The Ravens were one of the featured teams in highlight reels this past week with the big story being Steve Smith sticking it to his old team. When the Panthers cut loose Steve Smith, there were some who speculated he signed with the Ravens simply because they were playing the Panthers. Just like everything else, the media blows it way out of proportion. The Ravens used Steve Smith’s energy and motivation to destroy a very average Panthers’ squad. The NFL hasn’t stopped talking about that all week and now we’ll play against that. Baltimore hasn’t been as great as advertised. They lost to the Bengals in Week 1 by 7 points. In Week 2, they beat the Steelers but were dominated for three quarters. In Week 3, they needed a last play FG to defeat Cleveland in a game they outgained the Earth Tones by 2 yards. Finally, last week, Baltimore had its first dominant performance and that’s not enough incentive for us to back them here.

The Colts are on a two game streak of 40+ points from their offense. The Colts are not stumbling on offense like the Panthers were. The Colts are not stumbling at all. Indy lost its first two games against Philly and Denver but rebounded back to defeat Jacksonville and Tennessee. The betting world sees that. They see two victories over two cupcakes and two losses against two quality clubs. That said, Indy could have won both those games and surely could have put away the Eagles a few times. Andrew Luck is currently the #1 quarterback thanks to 14 touchdowns and an average of 326 passing yards per game. It would be easy to say Luck played well because they faced the Jaguars and the Titans but it’s more than that. He played well against Denver and Philly also. He has complete control of the offense. Luck’s ability to spread the ball around has been impressive. He has completed passes to 17 different players and that makes it tough on any defense. Baltimore has not played well at this venue either, losing by an average of 13 points in its last four visits here. That may not change in this one.

Note: This is an interesting game in terms of line movement and while this game is not an official wager yet, there’s a good chance will pull the trigger on Sunday. We’ll wait and decide later whether or not this will be an official play. For now, no bets but stay tuned.

N.Y. Jets +6½ over SAN DIEGO

This is another classic case of buying low and selling high. The Chargers are getting a lot of press ever since they defeated and dominated the Seahawks in a 30-21 final. The following week they went into then 2-0 Buffalo and won comfortably against the Bills. Last week, the Chargers won and covered again and they are now 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. Folks are riding them for all they’re worth but this week you will pay a premium to wager on them. The Chargers could be in for a big surprise this week. The rushing game is in big need of help. Ryan Mathews remains out with a sprained knee. Danny Woodhead is gone for the year and Donald Brown took over but he only gained 19 yards on 10 carries on the Jaguars. The rushing game figures to be an issue again here and let’s also not ignore that the Chargers have three AFC West matchups waiting on the other side of this game, which also makes them vulnerable.

With one win this year (against Oakland) in four starts, the Jets stock is extremely low. That makes us instant buyers. The good news is that they had a chance to be 4-0. The Jets had the ball down by one score late in the fourth quarter in each of their last three games against Green Bay, Chicago and Detroit and The Jets lost them all but at least they’ve been right there against some pretty stiff competition and high octane offenses. The Chargers style will suit the Jets just fine. San Diego is not an explosive team like Detroit, Green Bay or Chicago. They are a more methodical team that seldom blows out anyone. One of the worst spots for a significant favorite is playing a home game again after defeating a very weak opponent the previous week. We'll take the points with an undervalued Jets bunch that's vastly improved but the results don’t show it. A solid defense, a ball-control offense and reasonable confidence are all good underdog traits, and it wouldn't surprise us one bit to see the Jets win outright.

AC Dinero

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots +2

We'll back the Patriots at home after getting embarrassed on Monday night in KC. I like taking good teams that looked ugly the week before. No team is as good as they looked the prior game or as bad as they looked. The patriots problems are on 3rd down. Usually, they are a very good 3rd down team and I expect that to revert to the mean as the season goes on. The pass D is solid, giving up o mere 5.8 ypa. Cincinatti is coming in off the bye and the defens ehas led them to a 3-0 start. This is a bad spot for them. Plus the public is all over them (or against NE), which isn't a good sign for their backers, as evidenced by the line going form NE -2 to +1. Look for the Patriots to play well at home

Sleepyj

Bucs / Saints Over 48

Both defenses are horrible. New Orleans will be salty and looking to beat up this Tampa team. Tampa got some things going last week in Pitt and scored 28 points...New Orleans played Dallas and I think they just scored again. Point blank both teams will score here and neither defense will stop the other..Look for this one to hit close to 56+

Big Al

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
Pick: New York Jets

The Chargers are the NFL's pointspread darlings so far. They're 3-1 straight-up, but a perfect 4-0 against the spread. However, teams with a 4-0 pointspread mark are a money-burning 20-28 ATS in Week 5 since 1980, including 12-21 ATS as a favorite. One of the big reasons for San Diego's success has been the ability to not turn the ball over. They've committed just one turnover in four games, while their opponents have lost the ball six times. However, turnovers are largely random, and past success in that department surely doesn't foretell future success. Now, let's look at the New York Jets. They're 1-3 straight-up and 0-3-1 ATS. Not surprisingly, they're losing the turnover battle, as they've committed 8 turnovers, while they've forced just two, for a differential of minus six, or minus 1.5 per game. But, again, turnovers are random events. The value in this game lies squarely on the side of the Jets, and I'll take the points.

Jimmy Adams

Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Chicago Bears +3

Both teams are 2-2 and both are off of blowout losses as the Panthers welcome the Bears Sunday. Carolina got off to a somewhat lucky 2-0 start, but quickly regressed and now sit at the .500 mark. They were blown out on Sunday Night Football by the Steelers two weeks ago and followed that performance up by getting killed 38-10 at Baltimore. We should see a big effort out of the Panthers as they return home, it just won’t be enough as there is a huge talent gap between these two squads.

The Bears lost in what looked like an ugly final score to the somewhat desperate Packers Sunday. However, this team played much better than said score would indicate. Chicago moved the ball practically at will against the Packers. The critical mistakes and miscommunications by Jay Cutler and his receivers led to interceptions. Those mistakes will surely be corrected in practice this week.

The Panthers defense is stronger than Green Bay’s, so the Bears will need to execute better, which they will. As far as Carolina’s offense is concerned, it’s an absolute wreck at this point. The Panthers are so depleted at running back that they were forced to sign Chris Ogbonnaya due to the injuries of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.

Getting points with Chicago is a slam dunk here. Take the Bears.

Ari Atari

Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Baltimore Ravens +3½

Give me the ravens +3.5 in Indy. The ravens are flying under the radar and are sneaky good. Flacco had weapons, and a solid, opportunistic D. The Colts are overrated and this game will prove it. The moneyline is tempting but it stands good at +3,5 or even at +3, Get on this one early if you want the +3.5 as it is expected to move to +3 very soon.

The Ravens have won 3 in a row allowing only 15 pts. per game on average to give them the second best scoring defense in the league. Look for a close game that could come down to a field goal. Take the slight underdog and root for the outright win.

Sam Martin

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: San Diego Chargers

New York Jets have faced two good passing teams and lost both games by a touchdown. We'll fade the Jets in another unfavorable matchup this week as they go all the way across the country and take on the red hot Chargers. San Diego comes in underrated with a 3-1 record and that one loss came by a single point. They beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Seahawks here at home and followed up that win with two double-digits victories.

Love the matchup of the Chargers passing attack against the Jets, who gave up 31 points against Green Bay as well as 24 points last week against Detroit. Honestly, we would have given out San Diego as a premium selection if this line was a bit lower, but even having this game along the key numbers of 7 and 7.5, we still feel the Jets will have a hard time covering this spread. Chargers are 9-1 ATS in the first half of the season dating back to last year, and they stay hot with another win and over here!