Randall the Handle
Falcons (2-2) at Giants (2-2)
We always thought falcons loved the open air and sunshine and soaring through the sky. Not these Falcons, as they continue to play well only with a roof overhead. Atlanta is 0-2 outside this season and has won just once in its past nine tries away from home. Just last week, the Vikings carved them up to the tune of 41-28 in Minnesota. So where’s the selling feature here? How about owning the league’s top-ranked offence? It’s not like the Dirty Birds are facing the Seahawks or Bengals here. These Giants currently possess the league’s 22nd-ranked passing defence. These guys were picked apart by Matthew Stafford in the opening week, surrendering 346 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, the G-Men are on a two-game win streak, but holding off Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kirk Cousins is a lot different than facing Matty Ice and his complement of star receivers. The Giants are best when taking points, having failed to cover a home game as a 4+ favourite here since the start of 2013. TAKING: FALCONS +4
Texans (3-1) at Cowboys (3-1)
While it’s difficult to ignore what the Cowboys’ offence and particularly RB DeMarco Murray are accomplishing, it remains a leap of faith to trust Dallas when they have to win by a margin. Sure, they upset the Saints on this field a week ago, but the ’Pokes were taking points in Jerry’s house in that one. Dallas has managed just three covers in its past 14 tries when giving points here. Offence is sexy. It’s what the NFL is all about these days. But did you see what Seattle did to Denver in the Super Bowl? Not that these two compare, but taking a bunch of points with a decent defence over a strong offence is highly recommended. Houston DE J.J. Watt continues to be a disruptive force and while Tony Romo hasn’t been as careless as usual, he is still prone to committing blunders when hounded by guys like Watt. Dallas also finds itself in a sandwich spot, having knocked off the Saints last week before heading to Seattle next week. Houston has some offensive issues, but despite Dallas’ defence playing above expectations, we’re still being cautious with it. TAKING: HOUSTON +6½
Bears (2-2) at Carolina (2-2)
This business of winning on the road and losing at home is going to stop somewhere for the Bears and this very well could be the place. After getting shellacked in Baltimore, Carolina is back home where it has won and covered eight of its past 10 games. While the Panthers’ offence has struggled, Chicago’s defence has been a trouble spot for the Bears. The combination of QB Cam Newton and rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin has been solid and one that can exploit this leaky defence. Let’s not forget that Carolina disposed of the NFC North’s 3-1 Lions quite handily before hitting this mini-skid. TAKING: PANTHERS –2½
Browns (1-2) at Titans (1-3)
The Browns play a few close games and everyone is singing their praises. Let’s get a grip. This is still a losing team that doesn’t have many proven players on offence. It’s also a rather short price for Cleveland as a road team no matter who the opponent might be. Granted, the Titans have the appeal of canned lunch meat, but so would many of the subpar teams after facing the offences of Dallas, Cincinnati and Indianapolis in consecutive weeks. QB Jake Locker is expected back after missing some time with a wrist injury and he provides his team with the best chance to win. TAKING: TITANS –2
Rams (1-2) at Eagles (3-1)
Don’t let the Eagles fool you. They are masking the mess they are in quite well. But when you look behind the curtain of Chip Kelly’s crazed approach, you’ll find a flawed team. Right now, Philadelphia is struggling on offence as its O-line has been crushed by injury and the running game has been halted as a result. This isn’t a team that can rely on its defence to bail them out, either. The Eagles are near the bottom in both points allowed and yards allowed and there are no signs of a remedy on the horizon. QB Austin Davis was named the official starter in St. Louis and this game should help validate that designation. TAKING: RAMS +7
Buccaneers (1-3) at Saints (1-3)
The bloom has come off the rose in New Orleans. The Saints are no longer feared after this slow start, their only win being an underwhelming affair in this stadium versus the Vikings. New Orleans’ defence is being shredded and even though the Bucs aren’t exactly juggernauts offensively, they hardly deserve to be double-digit dogs to this slumping division rival. History will show New Orleans’ strong record here, but right now, the Saints must earn back some trust. With Tampa feeling better about itself after upsetting the Steelers, it is the sensible way to go in this one. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +10
Bills (2-2) at Lions (3-1)
If nothing else, the Bills usually give you a run for your money and they are especially efficient in this price range. In Buffalo’s past 19 losses, only seven have been by more than seven points. They face a hot team here in the Lions, but Detroit is not as threatening when all-world WR Calvin Johnston is hobbled, as he is now. The Bills finally made a switch at quarterback. Even though veteran Kyle Orton may not be a world beater, he’s adept enough to operate an offence productively. Detroit needs to run to be most effective, but that won’t be easy against Buffalo’s stellar run stoppers. TAKING: BILLS +7
Ravens (3-1) at Colts (2-2)
The Ravens have had the luxury of playing three of their first four at M&T Bank, where they were 6-2 a year ago compared to 2-6 when leaving. Baltimore’s lone away game this year was a narrow, last-second win at Cleveland. Now the Ravens must travel to face a strong home team in their own right, as Andrew Luck and the Colts have won seven of nine on this field, including victories over both Super Bowl participants from last season. Baltimore hasn’t faced the best passing attacks in the league other than Andy Dalton in the opener, where Cincinnati passed for more than 300 yards. This will be an equal test for its suspect secondary. TAKING: COLTS –3½
Steelers (0-2) at Jaguars (0-2)
Even their mascot will have a hard time supporting the Jaguars. They give up a ridiculous 38 points per game, nine more than the second-worst team. Jacksonville’s ground game is abysmal, plodding for a mere 69 yards per contest, good for 30th in the NFL. All that said, why has this line dropped from its opener of 7-points to its current 6-points? Sometimes, you have to read between such lines and trust the oddsmakers, a savvy group that knows full well where the money will fall in this game. QB Blake Bortles has a start under his belt now and he fared reasonably well against the vastly superior Chargers last week. TAKING: JAGUARS +6
Cardinals (3-0) at Denver (2-1)
This is a dumb price. It really is. It is based on fear and recent reputation. The Broncos haven’t won a game by more than seven points yet and that includes two played on this field. Now they are asked to give better than a converted touchdown to the undefeated Cardinals? Arizona is legit. They have talent on both sides of the ball and while QB Carson Palmer remains sidelined, Drew Stanton has done a fine job in his absence. Expect the Broncos to be flustered with their struggling ground game, facing a strong Cardinals run-stopping unit, which has allowed less than three yards per carry. Hard to imagine Denver breaking away in this one. TAKING: CARDINALS +7½
Chiefs (2-2) at 49ers (2-2)
With four of their next five games on the road, including stops at Denver, the Giants and New Orleans, the Niners realize the importance of games like this one. This sets up nicely as the ether still hasn’t worn off for the Chiefs after clobbering the Patriots for all to see. Now K.C. must fly to the left coast on a short week to face an NFC contender and it falls right between the New England win and a key game against the division-leading Chargers next week. The Niners don’t fear their ex-quarterback Alex Smith and they employ a defence that can stop K.C.’s runners. TAKING: 49ERS –6
Jets (1-3) at Chargers (3-1)
When you play the Jaguars, it’s similar to a bye. Now the Chargers will take on the Jets in a more serious mood. After spending a couple weeks here in SoCal, we expect the Bolts to perform well. QB Philip Rivers is at the top of his game and that will pose plenty of problems for a Jets team that, despite not having horrible stats, has issues with their secondary. More importantly, Gang Green does not have the offensive weapons to trade punches with this host. QB Geno Smith continues to make costly mistakes as he attempts to get the ball to his subpar receivers. Will there be a Michael Vick sighting? TAKING: CHARGERS –6½
Bengals (3-0) at Patriots (2-2)
While everything points to Cincinnati here, we’re not prepared to toss aside the Patriots like an aging car. We won’t deny Cincy’s talent, but they still must prove they can win on the road. The Bengals come off a bye after playing two home games. Cincinnati’s only road game was its opener in Baltimore and that was a back-and-forth affair that the Bengals survived. Last season, Marvin Lewis’ club was just 3-5 when travelling. Heading into Foxborough won’t be the cakewalk that many are expecting. The Patriots are taking home points for only the third time since ’03. Pride does play a part in this dramatic league and we still believe old Betsy has a few miles left in her. TAKING: PATRIOTS +1
Seahawks (2-1) at Redskins (1-3)
Unless a team is from Oakland, it finds a way to redeem itself after embarrassing and humiliating losses. The Redskins were torched in prime time a week ago Thursday for all to see. Now they are back in the spotlight against the Super Bowl champions. Not only do they get a chance for redemption, they get to do it at home while getting 7½ points. Sure, the Seahawks are a better team, but let’s not forget they aren’t quite as formidable away from The Link. With Russell Wilson at QB, Seattle is a mortal 9-8 in away games with five of the nine wins being by less than six points. Seattle has had a week off, but the Redskins will have had 11 days off on a non-bye week as well, going from a Thursday to the following Monday. Despite the clunker against the Giants, Washington currently has a higher-rated passing offence and passing defence than the visiting champs. The Redskins have enough playmakers to keep this one interesting and, on the heels of that drubbing, we expect them to show their chops. TAKING: REDSKINS +7½
Marc Lawrence
Cleveland vs. Tennessee
Pick: Cleveland
Edges - Browns: 8-0 ATS Game Four off SU loss; and 7-0 ATS when seeking double revenge off a division game; and 5-0 ATS with rest vs. losing opponent. Titans: 1-5 ATS after Colts vs. opponent with revenge. With Tennessee riding a rotten 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS mark in its last seven home games, and the Browns having yet to turn the ball over this season, look Mike Pettine to pick up his first career road win here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas City Chiefs +6
Kansas City’s 27-point win over the Patriots wasn’t just their most impressive win of this season, it was their most complete performance under head coach Andy Reid. I know this may look like a prime letdown spot for the Chiefs, especially with them playing on short rest, but this isn’t just another game for Kansas City. Starting quarterback Alex Smith will be facing the team that benched and traded him away. We saw last year how the Chiefs rallied together for Reid in his return to Philadelphia and I expect an even more inspired effort against the 49ers.
The 49ers defense did an outstanding job of shutting down the Eagles last week, but a lot of that had to do with LeSean McCoy’s struggles and San Francisco being able to sit back in coverage to slow down Nick Foles and the Eagles passing attack. It’s also worth noting that Philadelphia likely wasn’t as good as their record indicated. They trailed by double-digits in each of their first three games.
This week the 49ers will have to pay extra attention to the running game, as Kansas City has found themselves quite a 1-2 punch in Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis. No surprise that the Chiefs offense looked like a completely different unit with Charles back in the lineup. We have already seen Kansas City go on the road and keep it closer than anyone expected against the Broncos, so no reason not to think they can do the same against these 49ers, who are still missing several key players on defense.
The other big key here is San Francisco’s offense hasn’t been all that impressive so far this season. A lot of that has to do with the decision making of quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The Chiefs defense returned to form with 3 turnovers against the Patriots and I expect them to come up with a couple key takeaways to keep this game close and potentially win outright.
The Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing their last game at home.
Home favorites after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against an opponent that didn’t commit a turnover in their last game are 41-83 ATS since 1983. That's a 67% system in favor of the Chiefs.
Chip Chirimbes
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans -125
The battle of non-existent quarterbacks take place in Nashville where the Titans will chose between Jake (I should have played baseball) Locker and Charlie Whitehurst against the Browns Brian Hoyer and Johnny (Bench-sitting) Manziel. Amazing to me that Tennessee is even favored ad they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games. This may be because the Browns have lost 24 of their last 26 road games.
Steve Janus
Dallas Cowboys -6
This Cowboys team has been one of the biggest surprises so far this season and I think there's some decent value here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home against a Texans team they don't like sharing the state of Texas with. Houston is simply not as good as their 3-1 record would indicate and even J.J. Watt won't be able to slow down this impressive Cowboys ground game. The Texans are limited offensively and Dallas has play inspired defensively.
Key System - Home teams off an upset win as an underdog in a game involving two teams that have won 75% or more of their games are 25-4 (86%) ATS since 1983.
Brad Diamond
NY Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: NY Jets +7
It appears that we have two teams going in the opposite direction both on the stat sheet and the playing field. San Diego is 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS), while the Jets are 1-3 SU (0-3-1 ATS). The Padres come in off a super BLOWOUT win 33-14 over Jacksonville (The Home of the Brave). The Jets did it again last week having a good chance to stay with the Lions, but faltering 24-17 as Detroit had a 9 minute TOP edge. And, they did it with their passing game, not the inconsistent rushing (88) attack. This time around the Jets must face QB Rivers who is on fire in the early going with 82.5 QBR just behind Manning, Bress and Luck! Rivers (PR: 114.5) has only been sacked 5 times this year, and the Jets strength on defense is stopping the run (#1). If, somehow, the Jets can harass the Padres the game can be won SU. Don’t Laugh! A HUGE EDGE for the Jets is the SD inability to run the football and control the clock inside the infantry war. They are the #30 RO with 3.5 yards per carry as their weakness. In the TO category, SD has benefited this year at +5 with the New Yorkers -6. We note, in the series the UNDERDOG has covered 5-of-6 in Vegas with the New Yorkers 4-1 ATS at San Diego…
Joseph D'Amico
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -6
Seasoned veteran, Ben Roethlisberger will face a rookie QB in Blake Bortles here. The jaguars play-caller has 4 INT's in his 2 starts and with Toby Gerhart's 114 total rushing yards, the Steelers "D" will frustrate the youngster and force more TO's. The backfield of Bell and Blount has allowed Big Ben to work his magic. Let's face it, Jacksonville has been outscored in their 0-4 (SU and ATS) season by an average of 28.5 PPG. The Jags are 7-18-1 ATS their L26 home games, 0-4-1 ATS their L5 vs. the AFC, and 7-18-1 ATS their L26 games overall. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS their L5 road games, 4-1 ATS their L5 October games, and 7-32 their L10 games played on grass.
EZWINNERS
Chicago Bears +3
The Panthers free fall that many predicted is in full force. Carolina has been dominated in back to back games by the Steelers and Ravens and they have issues on both sides of the ball. The offense is decimated with injuries. The once loaded roster of running backs is now very thin. Quarterback Cam Newton looks like a 50 year old man trying to play quarterback with a gimpy ankle and banged up ribs. The defense that was so tough last season and finished as the #2 ranked unit in the NFL has allowed 75 points the last two weeks. Chicago has injury issues of their own on the defensive side of the ball, but with rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin as they only real threat I expect them to do a good job against this struggling Carolina offense. The Bears have a ton of offensive weapons with wide receivers Ashton Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, tight end Marcellus Bennet and running back Matt Forte. I just don't see how Carolina will hold this group down for an entire game. With the state that this Carolina team is in at the moment, they should not be laying points against a quality team. Play on Chicago.
Cleveland Browns +1.5
After winning their first game of the season, the Titans have lost three straight. The offense for Tennessee has looked horrible. Jake Locker looked pretty bad after week one and is nursing a wrist injury. Charlie Whitehurst didn't look any better filling in for Locker. The Titans defense has not played bad, but they can only do so much for an offense that is averaging just fifteen points per game. Cleveland is just 1-2 on the season, but they have played pretty well. The Browns are coming off of a bye and have a very manageable schedule the next few games starting with this one. Brian Hoyer has played well running the Cleveland offense that is averaging just under 25 points per game. The Browns should also have the services of starting running back Ben Tate and tight end Jordan Cameron back for this game as well. Cleveland's defense was expected to play much better than they have, but I expect them to play well here. Take the points.
Atlanta Falcons +4
I was on Minnesota last week as they ran all over the Falcons and picked up the upset win. The NFL is really funny because a team can go from looking unbeatable to looking like shit in a week. Atlanta was coming off of a huge win over Tampa Bay on Thursday just like the Giants are coming off of a huge win over the Redskins last Thursday. I expected this line to be closer to a touchdown considering last weeks results which also tells me that Atlanta is the play here. I'm still not convinced that the Giants have magically turned things around enough to be asked to win games by a margin. The Falcons still have a lost of offensive firepower and asking them to lose by no more than a field goal does not seem like a daunting task. Since 1990, road underdogs off a loss in which they allowed forty or more points are 84-61 (58%) against the spread. Take the points.
Dallas Cowboys -6.5
The Cowboys are in first place at 3-1 and are coming off of a dominating win over the Saints last Sunday night. That's what makes this pick a bit scary. Dallas has always seemed to lay and egg as a home favorite against teams they should beat, but I'm going to give them a shot here. The Texans are also 3-1 and in first place in their division, but Houston has to be one of the least impressive first place teams that I can recall. Houston was unable to run the ball last week against Buffalo and quarterback Ryan Fitzpaterick didn't do much thru the air. Houston pulled off the win and the cover thanks mostly to JJ Watt making a pick six! Houston's defense is still struggling to stop the run and I believe that will doom them against Dallas and running back DeMarco Murry who leads the NFL in rushing. Once the Texans safety's come up to help with the run the play action will be wide open. Houston's three wins have come against teams who quarterback QBR ranks 25th or worse in the league. Their loss was to Eli Manning who is 6th in the NFL in QBR and this week they face Tony Romo who is 4th in the league in QBR. I look for the Boy's to carve up this defense. Lay the points.
Buffalo Bills +7
The Bills really reached when they took EJ Manual in the first round and it looks like they have decided to pull the plug on that experiment, at least for now. Kyle Orton will get the start in this game which will be a big upgrade at the position (I can't believe I just said that!). Orton has experience and should make better decisions. He also throws a better deep ball than EJ Manual which will make Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins the dangerous weapons that they should be. The Detroit defense has been one of the best in the league, but this will be the toughest test they have faced this season trying to stop the running game of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Detroit's offense is always one of the best, but the Lions are hurting at the running back position with Bell sidelined for this game and star wide receiver Calvin Johnson is nursing an ankle injury. The Buffalo defense has played very well this season and you know they will have a very good game plan with ex Lions head coach Jim Schwartz running the Buffalo defense. Take the points.
Cincinnati Bengals Pk
The Patriots had their asses handed to them last Monday night in Arrowhead Stadium by the Chiefs and I do not like them to bounce back in this Sunday Night Football matchup with Cincinnati. Teams playing in the second of back to back primetime games (Sunday night and Monday night only) are now just 2-18 against the spread in the last twenty games. New England has big problems with their offensive line and Tom Brady is not looking confident in the pocket. The Patriots defense was exposed by the Kansas City running and Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith carved up this defense. That spells trouble against a Bengals team that is one of the most complete teams in the NFL. Cincinnati has had two weeks to prepare as they are coming off of their bye week. The Bengals defense is ranked #4 in the league and I think they will give this Patriots offense fits, epically on 3rd down where the Patriots are not very good. Offensively the Bengals bye week also gave wide receiver AJ Green time to be 100% healthy. Play on Cincinnati.
Mike O'Connor
Buffalo (+7) 18 DETROIT 23
The Bills have a new quarterback in former Cowboys backup Kyle Orton as he replaces an ineffective EJ Manuel after another poor performance last week against the Texans. Orton should provide an upgrade and the comments coming out of Bills camp indicate that Orton has better command and quicker decision making ability than what they were used to with Manuel at the helm. Manuel’s stats last week were bolstered by an 80 yard TD on a blown coverage where Mike Williams was so wide open that my ten year old son could have probably completed the pass. Otherwise, he averaged 3.3 yps on 43 pass attempts. While it’s hard to quantify what Orton will be able to provide after only being in this offense for a few weeks, it’s clear that the coaches think that he is a significant upgrade or the change would not have been made with a 2-2 team. If he can generate anything out of the passing game, which includes some talented wide receivers, this team should compete.
From a coaching perspective there are some interesting tidbits in this game. New Bills Defensive Coordinator, Jim Schwartz, returns to Detroit where he spent the past five years as Head Coach of the Lions. He should have some great insight into the personnel on both sides of the ball. However, The Lions still have Senior Coaching Assistant Gunther Cunningham, who has served as the teams’ assistant head coach/defensive coordinator for the past five seasons under Schwartz (2008-2013) and should know his schemes and tendencies as well. He should be able to provide good information to the offense on how best to attack Schwartz’s new Bills defense. Additionally, new Lions DC Teryl Austin runs an entirely different defense –so outside of personnel knowledge--the scheme is unfamiliar and in my estimation there may be a slight advantage here as a result to the Lions.
In addition, it’s just not an ideal match-up for the Bills who will face what has been an excellent Lions defense so far this season on the road. Detroit has allowed an average of 268 total yards per game at 4.6 yppl against teams that average 338 yards at 5.4 yppl and their rush defense has been outstanding, holding opponents to 81 yards at 3.4 ypr. If the Bills have trouble getting on track in the ground game, this could get ugly. There are situations going both ways in this one with the stronger ones favoring the Bills while my model, adjusted for the change at QB for the Bills, favors Detroit by about 4.5 points. I’ll lean slightly to the Bills.
St. Louis (+7) 20 PHILADELPHIA 26
The Rams are coming off their bye and should be ready after having the past two weeks to prepare for the Eagles. Rams Head Coach Jeff Fisher is 11-8 ATS off a bye and 2-0 ATS with the Rams, tying the 49ers 24-24 as a 13.5 point underdog in 2012 and destroying the Bears 42-21 last season as a 1 point favorite. He has a new quarterback in Austin Davis who has played well since taking over for an injured Shaun Hill and will have had the additional time to get acclimated to the offense while having the staff take the time to better design the system to fit his strengths. Hopefully they have made some improvements to their defense as they have been well below average with a defensive line not living up to its billing. Overall the Rams are allowing 341 yards at 6.6 yppl to teams that have averaged 340 yards at 5.7 yppl and have been gashed on the ground for an average of 157 yards at 5.5 ypr. They will need all the help they can get this week against an Eagles offense that has struggled with injuries along their offensive line but have the potential to break out as they get some of their players back. RT Lane Johnson will be back this week from suspension and he should be able to jump in at right tackle. That will actually help at two positions, because Todd Herremans can move back inside to right guard with Johnson back. Those changes should help an Eagles offense that has been struggling, gaining just 88 rushing yards at 3.6 ypr on average this season. It was a particularly bad offensive showing last week as the 49ers held Philly to 0 offensive points as all of their scores were defensive or special team’s touchdowns in their 21-26 loss. With no situations in play here and my model favoring the Eagles by around 6.5 points this game is really a toss up to me.
DALLAS (-6.5) 26 Houston 19
The Cowboys have looked impressive recently, winning their last three games and last week cruising past the Saints 38-17 as a 3 point dog. Houston is also a surprising 3-1 and last week escaped with a win against the Bills at home on the strength of an 80 yard interception return for a TD by JJ Watt and two 50 yard plus field goals by K Randy Bullock. The Texans haven’t necessarily faced a Murderer’s Row of opponents in the Redskins, Raiders, Giants and Bills and so I’m not quite sold on the Texans. From a match-up perspective, a good Cowboys rushing attack that has averaged 166 yards at 5.3 ypr against teams that allow 118 yards at 4.5 ypr, should have their way with a Texans defensive front that has allowed 130 yards at 5.0 ypr to teams that average 107 yards at 4.1 ypr. If the Cowboys can run effectively, lanes will open in the passing game, and that has been their recipe for offensive success so far this season.
Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has actually played efficiently in the passing game for the most part, but his 5-5 TD to interception ratio this year is not good enough and he continues to remain a turnover risk. The Texans have been a bit lucky this season with a +3 fumble differential and some defensive and special teams scores so I expect that their performance should regress back to their natural statistical projections. I don’t have any situations on this game and my model thinks that this game is lined about right (Dallas by about 7 points) so it’s a pass for me.
Atlanta (+4.5) 25 NY GIANTS 27
The Falcons have a very good offense, one has averaged 444 yards per game at 6.8 yppl against teams that allow 376 yards at 5.8 yppl but tend to play much better at home than they do on the road. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Falcons QB Matt Ryan has just a 57.6 completion percentage at 6.2 yps with a 4-5 TD to interception ratio and a total QBR of 44.0 in the Falcons away games so far this season. The Falcons are 0-2 SU and ATS losing to the Bengals and then last week to a Vikings team that doesn’t look quite as good after Thursday night. In addition, the Falcons are decimated on the offensive line—losing two key starters last week to season ending IR (C Joe Hawley and RT Lamar Holmes) while LG Justin Blalock's status is unclear coming off a back injury. Add to that the match-up between rookie LT Jake Matthews and Giants pass-rusher Jason-Pierre Paul and I see protection issues for Atlanta this week.
Meanwhile, the Giants have played better as of late, winning their last two after a slow start to the season and have the ability to produce points against a bad Falcons defense that has allowed 430 yards per game at 6.4 yppl. Atlanta has not been able to stop the run or the pass and will be challenged even more with strong safety and defensive leader William Moore out for the foreseeable future with a shoulder injury. The secondary now will include three second-year players in Trufant, cornerback Robert Alford and new starting strong safety Kemal Ishmael along with a young LB group. I don’t see things getting much better against a Giants offense that is improving as they continue to get more proficient in new OC Ben McAdoo’s system.
The Falcons are 1-9 since the beginning of last season in road games and are playing their third away game in their last four while the Giants are playing their third home game in their last four and are off a mini-bye having played last Thursday night. New York is in a divisional primetime sandwich spot, however, having played the Redskins last week and facing the Eagles in Philadelphia next Monday night. The Falcons do qualify in several good situations as well that are 662-491-40, 151-92-6, 42-15-5 and 20-7 while the Giants qualify in a negative 193-312-17 situation. It’s a good spot for the Falcons with some good situations but with the cluster injuries along their offensive line and the poor road showing, I’ll pass.
Cleveland (+2) 22 TENNESSEE 21
Coming off of a 21-23 home loss to the Ravens two weeks ago and then the bye last week, the Browns look to break a streak of road losses that extends back to Brian Hoyer's first start last season in Minnesota. The Browns have lost seven in a row on the road since that game and going back further, are just 3-22 in away games since 2011. With two weeks to prepare they should be ready to break that streak as they face a Titans team that has been awful the past three weeks, losing by an average score of 11-33. In order to do it, they’ll need to improve on a defense that has not been good in allowing 422 yards at 6.5 yppl on average with poor performances against both the run and the pass. With a talented roster and a defensive coach that has had success both with the Jets and the Bills, I do expect the Cleveland defense to improve. They have a prime opportunity to do it this week against a below average Titans offense that have not passed the ball well, generating 207 passing yards at 5.9 yps against teams that allow 246 yards at 6.4 yps. An area of focus this week should be pounding the rock as the Titans have run the ball well, however, and face a Browns rush defense that has allowed sizable running lanes and an average of 154 yards at 5.3 ypr.
An interesting coaching note in this game is that Dowell Loggains – the first year Quarterbacks Coach of the Cleveland Browns was the Offensive coordinator for the Titans last year and had been an offensive coach in some capacity with the team since 2008. Although the offensive system has changed for the Titans under new Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt, Loggains will have excellent insight into the strengths and weaknesses of most of the Tennessee personnel, particularly on offense. In addition, the Browns run new OC Kyle Shanahan’s schemes and not Loggains’, who is the QB coach, so the information runs primarily one way in this instance and may benefit the Browns.
Interestingly enough, there is a similar situation in play as the new Titans Defensive Coordinator, Ray Horton, was the DC of the Browns last year and should be able to provide some unique insights into the strengths and weaknesses of many of the players that he coached. This is a little bit more of a two way street, however, as many of the Browns players are familiar with Horton’s schemes from his time with them last season and may have been able to provide some insight to the coaches, who are all new this season.
There are situations going both ways in this game and my model favors the Browns by about a point. I think that Cleveland is the more talented team at this point and are farther along than Tennessee under their new respective coaching staffs. That, coupled with the fact that the Browns are coming off their bye gives them just enough of an advantage to have me lean their way.
Arizona (+7.5) 21 DENVER 25
This should be an interesting game as both teams are coming off of their bye week and should be prepared to play well. The 3-0 Cardinals have been a tough, resilient team so far, overcoming multiple injuries in their front seven as well as to their starting quarterback. They have beaten a schedule of good teams in the Chargers, Giants and the 49ers and have played a smart brand of offensive football as well as fielding a well schemed defensive group under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. They’ll face a tough test this week without QB Carson Palmer who is still dealing with a nerve issue in his shoulder and will start Drew Stanton, who is 2-0 SU and ATS so far this season as the starter. Meanwhile, The Broncos finally appear to have a healthy team as leading tackler LB Danny Trevathan returns and Von Miller and Chris Harris have had additional time to get back to full strength.
In an interesting twist, Arizona Head Coach Bruce Arians has some history with Peyton Manning, as he was his QB Coach with the Colts from 1998-2000. Also, Cardinals Assistant Head Coach/Offensive Consultant Tom Moore coached Peyton Manning as an offensive coach for twelve years in Indianapolis from 1998-2010. As a result, he knows Peyton Manning well and will be able to provide some insights into how to best attack whatever weakness there is in Peyton Manning’s game. In fact, he knows Manning so well, John Fox brought him in to explain to the Denver coaches what Peyton likes. Via the Denver Post (in regards to Moore): "Before he went to Arizona, when we acquired Peyton, I had him come in and spend some time with our offensive staff and kind of understand a little bit what Peyton was accustomed to offensively," Fox said. "He's a damn good football coach." As a result, the Cardinals defense won’t tip their hand to Manning before the snap. They will likely attack with the blitz as all three of Manning’s sacks this season have come off the blitz. Arizona plans on giving Manning the same look every snap and will try to hold their disguise as long as possible.
Situations are going both ways in this game and my model favors the Broncos by about 5.5 points. With a very good defense and a solid game plan in place that should be able to minimize the damage Manning can inflict in the passing game, I’ll lean with the Cardinals to keep this one close.
SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) 26 Kansas City 16
After an impressive 41-14 Monday night beat-down of the Patriots, Kansas City has evened their season record to 2-2 after a 0-2 start. Their only hiccup so far was their strange opening day 10-26 loss to the Titans, but otherwise they have played the Broncos close and beat the Dolphins and Patriots in convincing fashion. This week Alex Smith will have a homecoming as he returns to San Francisco to face his old team and a defense with some new faces. Despite the injuries and suspensions on defense, the 49ers have continued to play tough, holding opponents that would generally gain 362 yards at 5.7 yppl to just 289 total yards at 5.1 yppl. They have faced some tough to defend offenses along the way in the Cowboys, Bears and Cardinals and last week held the Eagles attack without an offensive point as all of the Philly scores were generated off of special teams or defensive plays. In addition, they found their run game last week, gaining 220 yards at 5.5 ypr and this week will pound the rock against a Chiefs defense that has been susceptible to the run, allowing 115 yards at 5.2 ypr. Because of injuries the Chiefs have been playing without four of their best run defenders and as a result have struggled. I expect that weakness to be exploited this Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs good rushing attack won’t have as much success this week against a 49ers rush defense that has been excellent against the run, holding opponents that gain 118 yards at 4.6 ypr to only 72 yards at 3.9 ypr. With the ability to run the ball and stop the run, the 49ers should control this game in the trenches. Without real dynamic playmakers on the outside, Kansas City will look to throw to their tight end’s and running backs, but despite their injuries the 49ers have been very good in their front seven and should be able to defend this well.
The 49ers benefit from several negative situations that play against the Chiefs that are 36-87-5 and 37-75-4 and a subset that is 2-16-2. However, my model only favors them by about 4 points so this game is a pass for me with a lean to the 49ers.
NY Jets (+6.5) 20 SAN DIEGO 22
These are two teams heading in opposite directions with the Chargers going 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three while the Jets are 0-3 SU and 1-2-1. New York certainly has had their chances in losing to the Packers, Bears and Lions but the biggest difference for them has been their turnover differential. The Jets are tied for last in the league with a net of -5 while the Chargers are tied for second with a +5.
From a match-up perspective, the Jets should win the battle in the trenches as they run well and shut down the run as well as anyone. This bodes well for New York as the Chargers have struggled in the ground game, averaging just 72 yards at 2.5 ypr. If they can’t get any semblance of a ground game going, they become one-dimensional and easier to defend. While Philip Rivers is having another amazing season and the Chargers passing attack is one of the best in the league, generating 282 passing yards at 8.0 yps, the Jets have actually defended the pass better than you might have expected, allowing just 228 passing yards at 5.7 yps against a schedule of teams with quarterbacks by the name of Rodgers, Cutler and Stafford the past three weeks. On the other side of the ball, Jets QB Geno Smith will have to cut down on his mistakes in order for the Jets to have any chance of winning this week and they know that. Compounding the problem this week is the fact that the Jets may be without not only WR Eric Decker (who may play but will likely be compromised) but also WR David Nelson who has a severe low ankle sprain.
New York qualifies in 662-491-40 and 56-20-3 situations while the Chargers qualify in a negative 108-195-8 situation that plays against them. My model favors the Chargers in this spot by about 7.5 points and while the Chargers have had quite a bit of fumble luck this season, the Jets have been just about average. New York is the more desperate team and I’ll offer a strong lean their way but I’m going to resist from making them a Best Bet as I can’t play on a turnover prone quarterback on the road who will be playing with serious limitations in the WR group. In addition, it looks like some hot weather is in the forecast and while the Chargers have been practicing in it this week and beat the Seahawks in extreme heat a few weeks ago, the Jets are coming from mid-70’s this week in New Jersey. I’ll pass.
NEW ENGLAND (PK) 22 Cincinnati 19
Cincinnati is the only undefeated team in the AFC after 4 weeks at 3-0 and are coming off their bye with a shot a staking their claim as one of the best teams in the league by knocking off the Patriots on a national stage on Sunday night. The national spotlight, however, has not been kind to the Bengals recently as under Andy Dalton they are just 2-4 in regular-season prime-time games. In addition, they tend to play much better at home than they do on the road. Since the beginning of 2013, the Bengals are 10-0 at home, winning by an average score of 33-15. On the road they are a different team and have just a 4-5 record, losing by an average 20-21 score. They’ll face a New England team that is 11-0 at home since the beginning of 2013, winning by an average 30-20 score. Going back further, the Patriots are 90-16 SU and 61-41-4 ATS at home with Brady at quarterback since he took over in 2001. In addition, Brady is 36-9 SU and 31-14 ATS after a loss in his career, including 5-0 SU ATS since the beginning of last season (1-0 this year with a 30-7 win at Minnesota). The record gets even better against tougher opponents-- 17-2 SU and 18-1 ATS from -2 to dog (24-4 ATS from -4 to dog).
Besides the Brady trends, New England qualifies in a 151-92-6 situation as well as a 67-26-2 subset while Cincinnati qualifies in a 76-125-2 situation that plays against them. The Patriots do, however, qualify in a negative 193-312-17 statistical match-up situation that plays against them. The Monday night game was an outlier for the Patriots as outside of that game, New England’s defense has played well. The defensive unit has given up less than ten points twice this year, and ranks in the top 5 in yards per game allowed, passing yards per game allowed and opposing quarterbacks’ QBR. In addition, they’ll have CB Brandon Browner available this week after serving his four game suspension to start the season. With all of the negativity this week after the blowout loss on Monday night, the Patriots will be focused to play well and I expect them to rebound in this game. The problem that I have here is that my ratings are strong on the Bengals, favoring them in this game by almost 6 points and with more changes along the offensive line for the Patriots this week, I’m going to pass this one.
WASHINGTON (+7) 19 Seattle 24
The Redskins were beaten soundly in front of a national audience last Thursday night against the Giants 14-45 and should respond with an inspired performance at home against the defending champs. On a short week the Redskins were caught flat with limited prep time and were embarrassed by a mistake filled effort as they committed 6 turnovers. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins has turned the ball over far too often, with 18 in his 11 games, and he’ll have to take better care of the ball if the Redskins are going to have a shot in this game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off of their bye and a 26-20 home win against the Broncos where they shut down Peyton Manning for three quarters before having to win it in overtime. They have had extra time to prepare for Cousins and a Redskin offense that is a work in progress with a new quarterback attempting to get acclimated to a new system.
Overall, the Redskins have played well on offense so far this season, averaging 416 total yards at 6.2 yppl against teams that allow 392 yards at 5.8 yppl with above average production on the ground and in the air. Their main problem has been turnovers as they are tied for last in the league at -5, some of that attributed to negative fumble luck. From a fundamental defensive perspective, they match up well with a Seattle offense that is driven by their ground game as the Redskins only allow 88 yards at 3.4 ypr. If they can shut down the run, the Redskins should be competitive in this game.
Washington qualifies in 99-39-4, 56-20-3 and 40-13 situations but the Seahawks qualify in a 662-491-40 situation of their own. My ratings favor Seattle by about 6.5 points but I am reluctant to play against a more talented Seahawk team, with rest, who has played particularly well in the spotlight and seem to relish the opportunity. Coach Pete Carroll owns a 10-1 record in prime-time games since taking over in Seattle in 2010, winning by an average 27-11 score. I’ll pass but lean to the Redskins to keep it within the number.
River City Sharps
Steelers -6
The Pittsburgh Steelers are still smarting from their stunning last-minute loss to the Tampa Bay Bucs and need to start feeling good about themselves. Looks like it’s a perfect time to take a trip to Jacksonville to meet up with Blake Bortles and the Jags! The Steelers seemingly had the Tampa game in the bag until Mike Glennon led the Bucs down the field late to grab the road victory. Remember that just the week before, the Steelers had gone into Carolina and convincingly beat Cam Newton and the Panthers. We like that road moxie and think it shows itself here again vs. the Jags on Sunday. While Bortles looks like he can make all of the throws, he is still locked in to receivers too much and that may be a problem against the Pittsburgh ball-hawking secondary. We get a veteran team with the better head coach (Tomlin) on the road trying to bounce back…and we get them at less than a touchdown against a team that has been outscored 152-41 since their 17-0 lead over the Eagles in the season opener. Jacksonville is just 3-11 as a home underdog over the past three seasons and 1-11 ATS in the first half of seasons over the past two seasons. Big Ben and the Steelers take care of business on the road and win this one by double digits.
Kyle Hunter
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -5
The San Francisco 49ers didn't look good in losses against the Bears and Cardinals, but this is still a quality team. Jim Harbaugh is a good coach, and there is a lot of talent on this roster. The 49ers defense has been terrific all year long. As long as Colin Kaepernick manages the game well and the offense can hold onto the ball, I think they have several key advantages in this game. Kansas City is an inconsistent team, and they are coming off their biggest win in several years. They are also on a short week since they played Monday night. It's a tough spot to back a team like the Chiefs. The 49ers defense should be the difference in this game.
Scott Spreitzer
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Tennessee Titans
It's no secret the Titans have struggled on offense of late, but they may be getting "just what the doctor ordered" today. The Cleveland Browns haven't been able to stop the run (29th) or the pass (27th) in 2014, and rank 30th overall, allowing over 425 total yards per game. I don't believe their bye week will have been enough to fix their shortcomings. The Titans expect to have Jake Locker back on the field this week, currently listed as probable. While he may not be a star at QB, he's certainly the team's best option. I do believe we'll see a focused Titan squad that can get back to .500 (3-3) with home wins this week and next against the Browns and Jaguars. That possibility, I'm sure, has not been lost on HC Ken Whisenhunt as he prepared this week. Whisenhunt teams have been outstanding against good offenses, those that average at least 24 ppg, going 12-2 ATS in 14 tries at home, out-scoring those teams by an average of 29-23. Tennessee has faced Kansas City, Dallas, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis so far this season. All four, especially the Bengals and Colts, have postseason aspirations. Taking on the Browns will be a a bit of a drop-off in level of competition. Yes, the Browns are off the bye, but we don't mind. Cleveland has dropped 3 straight following their last 3 bye weeks, by an average margin of 10 ppg. I'm backing the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.
Will Rogers
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -6
Most people expected the Jaguars to be a lot better in 2014 than they were last season. So far there has been little indication that there have been any significant improvements. The Jags host the Steelers this week, and it doesn't look like a good spot for the home team. The Steelers aren't in any position to overlook the Jags, coming off a loss to Tampa last week. I like the visitors to win and cover.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Steelers Offense - While the Steelers haven't been sharp through the first four weeks, they have proven they can still put points on the board. The running game in particular has been good, ranking 5th in the league averaging over 143 yards rushing per game. Le'Veon Bell could have a big game against the Jags 25th ranked run defense - Jacksonville is allowing an average of 130 yards rushing per game.
2. Turnovers - The Jags are tied for last in the NFL with a giveaway/takeaway ratio of -5. They have turned the ball over eight times and have only forced three takeaways.
3. X-Factor - Jacksonville's pass protection has failed miserably, as it is allowing an average of five sacks per game so far.
Jesse Schule
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Cleveland Browns +1½
The 1-2 Browns will travel to Tennessee to take on the 1-3 Titans, and while both teams have just one win, Cleveland has a lot more to be positive. The Browns have lost a pair of close games by a combined five points, on the road at Pittsburgh and at home against Baltimore. The Titans on the other hand have been blown out in three straight losses by a combined 64 points.
Jake Locker is expected to return at quarterback for Tennessee, but he hasn't been any better than his backups. He completed just over 50% of his passes, throwing for one TD and four picks in his last two starts. The Titans had no answer for the power running game of the Cowboys in their only previous home game, as Dallas racked up 220 yards on the ground in a 26-10 victory.
Brian Hoyer has Johnny Manziel waiting in the wings, but the way he's played so far, few could argue that he's not the best man for the job. He's done an excellent job of protecting the football, throwing for 716 yards and three TDs with no picks. The Browns have won four of his six career starts, while they are 1-12 the last two seasons when he hasn't played.
Tennessee has failed to cover in seven straight home games. The Browns look like a team that can find a way to win, while the Titans look like a team that can find a way to lose.
Joe Gavazzi
Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Chicago Bears +3
The Bears come off an ill-deserved loss when they outrushed Green Bay 235-56. But fell at home 38-17 to the Pack. Look for things to even out a bit here against a Carolina team, who is riddled with injuries and is being blitzed at the point of attack. Last week, Carolina lost 38-10 to Baltimore, making it consecutive defeats of 18 or more points. In those two contests, they allowed 75 total points to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. This, after starting the season 2-0 SU ATS in which they allowed a total of 21 points. In the ebb and flow of the NFL, one might normally look for the bounce. But, the Panthers are without their top 3 rushers, while QB Newton is dealing with an assortment of injuries. The bottom line is that for the YTD, the Panthers are being rushed 141/5.7 to 71/3.1. No thank you!