Rob Vinciletti
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Cleveland Browns +1½
Some powerful systems in this game. We play against home favorites of less than 5 off back to back road less like the Titans the last of which was by 30 or more points if they have no rest. These home teams are 2-11 ats A 44-17 system plays on Cleveland here as we again go against home favorites that allowed 35 or more as a road dog and lost to the spread by 10+ points. The Titans are 0-8 ats off a road game. The Browns are 6-0 ats as a dog vs a non division team before a home game. With Tennessee 5-15 ats when the total is more than 42 up to 49. We will see what Brown can do for you today.
Dana Lane
Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -139
I'm not convinced that the Bears defense is one that I should back with a bet. The Bears secondary allowed four touchdowns and 302 passing yards last weekend to the Green Bay Packers. Its not only inconsistent defensive play that cost the Bears last weekend it's been erratic play out of Jay Cutler as well. In two Bears home games Cutler has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions. In his career against Carolina Coach, Ron Rivera, Cutler has thrown a touchdown and two interceptions while posting a 69.5 quarterback rating. The Bears will feature an undrafted rookie in the back field with Darrin Reaves who carried 12 times for 26 yards against Baltimore. Carolina rookie Kelvin Benjamin has caught 21 passes for 329 yards and three touchdowns in the Panthers last two games. I like the panthers to bounce back against the Bears and their secondary.
Jim Feist
Kansas City at San Francisco
Pick: Under
A pair of Top 7 running teams meet in San Francisco, and running the football chews up yards and the clock. QB Alex Smith gets a chance to face the team that sent him packing and he is a ball control QB. The KC defense is on a roll, blasting Miami and shutting down the Patriots Monday night. The under is 34-16-1 in the Chiefs last 51 games on grass. San Francisco is 2nd in the NFL in rush yards allowed, holding opponents to an NFC-low 69.8 yards rushing. San Francisco is on a 6-1 run under the total and the under is 4-1 in the 49ers last 5 games on grass.
Andy Iskoe
Philadelphia -6
St Louis is 1-2 and off its Bye that followed a 34-31 home loss to Dallas in which the Rams blew an early 21-0 lead. The Eagles are off of their worst offensive performance under coach Chip Kelly, held to just 213 total yards in their 26-21 loss in San Francisco in which all of Philly's points were scored by the defense and special teams. The Rams are dealing with injuries on both sides of the football, including QB with starter Sam Bradford out for the season. The Eagles are in a similar spot as the Packers were last week when Green Bay was off of an uncharacteristically poor offensive effort a week earlier. Even rested off of a Bye, the Rams should provide the perfect antidote for the fast paced Eagles offense to return to form. The Rams' defense, thought to be a strength, has played poorly, especially against the run, allowing 186, 157 and 123 rushing yards thus far and their lone win came in the final minute at weak Tampa Bay. The Eagles have O-Line concerns, running the football for just 76 total yards in their last two games. Catching the Rams a bit rusty after the Bye, the Eagles should be able to get off to a faster start than in previous games. And if this becomes a wide open type of game such as the Rams played against Dallas, the Eagles have much more offensive firepower and a defense that has been statistically much better than the Rams'.
Tony Karpinski
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +6
Kansas City has come to life. They dont have a big passing game, but they do move the ball on the ground at strong 4.6 a clip. And they play a very good passing coverage as well which will bother Kap. The Kansas City Chiefs have showed just how good they can be when they get big defensive plays going for themselves. And with LB Justin Houston really coming around, they can do it. San Francisco matches up with an excellent run D, that has kept opponents to 84 or under in 3 out of 4 games this year. They have to remember they are a running team first, and sometimes Kap has been known to make a bone head play here and there. Injuries to Vernon Davis and Anthony Davis are not helping matters here for the Niners. A problem I have is with RB Carlos Hyde, who has skills, but he's not asserting himself physically, which wil be the problem. San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and I will take KC as a nice dog here with a great chance to win OUTRIGHT!
Don Best Consensus
Chicago at Carolina
Pick: Over
The vaunted Panthers defense has given up 75 points in the last 2 weeks. The Bears had zero punts last week. Either they were scoring points or turning the ball over to set up easy scoring opportunities for the opponent. Cam Newton and Jay Cutler are turnover specialists. Each QB will play a role in helping the OTHER team get into the endzone while helping their own team score a few times as well.
JR O'Donnell
Pittsburgh -6
Lay the points as D Lebeau and the crew will mash the Jaz Jags as the Steelers are a ticked off and focused bunch of ball players today 0-4 Jax Jaguars are a terrible 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. We will look or the steady pounding of Le'Veon Bell...who has 378 rushing yards and 570 yards all purpose yds from scrimmage + Jax dead last in pass D... Pittsburgh by dbl digits...
Nelly
Buffalo Bills + over Detroit Lions
The Lions showed some life on offense last week but overall this is no longer the high scoring team of years past. Jim Schwartz now runs the Buffalo defense and he will be up for this game against the team that fired him last season. Buffalo has featured an impressive defense in a 2-2 start and the Lions are still a tough team to rely on as they have been helped by turnovers in the strong start and this is a team that is being overvalued for great defensive numbers against average opposition. Buffalo has a great run defense and this will be a tough team to pull away from. The somewhat surprising move to go with Kyle Orton instead of E.J. Manuel at quarterback should provide the Bills with exactly what they need, a game manager who will avoid crucial mistakes. The Bills are allowing fewer than 19 points per game this season through a tough schedule but the team is just 2-2 as the offense has put the defense in too many bad situations. The Lions average just 3.1 yards per rush and the Bills allow only 2.9 yards per rush. While Matthew Stafford avoided turnovers last week, he did not in shaky performances in weeks 2 and 3 and this could be the best defense he has faced this season. Despite the success Detroit is riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball and the Lions have a big division game up next week. The Bills have out-rushed all four foes this season and it seems likely to happen again Sunday as the Bills will keep this game close and Schwartz will know how to force Stafford into a few big mistakes.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Power Angle Play
Indianapolis/ Baltimore Over 49: The Colts have been throwing the ball all over the field this year and I see them doing that here as well vs a Baltimore Defense that ranks 24th in the league vs the pass. Andrew Luck is having a great year and I just don't see the the Baltimore defense being able to contain him and his solid set of WRs. The Colts will score and the Ravens will have to pass as well if they hope to keep pace with this team. Flacco has been solid in leading this offense and he should have his fair share of good moments vs a Colts defense that is 21st vs the pass. This one should be fun and both offenses should let it all hang out in that game that should flirt with 60 points. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY: Game 5 dome favorites of less than 6 have gone 15-3 to the over since 2000.
BEST OF THE REST
St Louis/ Philadelphia Over 47.5: The Eagles offense had some issues last week and LeSean McCoy has had some problems getting going this year. That should change here vs a porous Rams run defense. It is important for the Eagles to get their running game going as it opens up the rest of the offense and that should happen in this one. The Rams are 30th in points allowed this year at 28.3 ppg and the Eagles should put up 30+ here on them, especially coming of that horrible offensive showing in San Francisco last week. The Eagle defense is nothing special as they come in 27th overall and have allowed 26 ppg on the year. Behind Austin Davis it looks as if the Rams have a decent passing game to work with and they will need to throw allot here if they hope to keep pace with the Eagles high flying attack. These teams have combined to allow 54.3 ppg this year and we also note that teams that have a divisional home game on Monday night on deck have gone 11-0 to the Over if the OU line is more than 41. Points aplenty in the City of Brotherly Love.
Larry Ness
Kansas City vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco
Alex Smith gets a chance to face the team that sent him packing when the Kansas City Chiefs visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Smith was labeled a bust early in his tenure with the San Francisco 49ers, spending several lean seasons (I’m being kind here) but then saw his career turn around with the arrival of Jim Harbaugh. Smith helped lead the 49ers to a 13-3 record in 2011 and was just an OT loss in the NFC championship game away from a Super Bowl appearance. However, a concussion in 2012 opened the door for Colin Kaepernick to take over as starter and led to Smith's offseason trade to the Chiefs.
The embattled QB has made the most of a fresh start with the Kansas City Chiefs, helping the Chiefs to a 11-5 record in 2013, coming off a 2-14 season in 2012. KC opened this year 0-2 but has won two straight behind a pair of excellent outings by Smith. He was 19 of 25 with three TDs and no INTs (136.0 QB rating) in KC’s 34-15 win at Miami in Week 3 and last Monday night, went 20 of 26 with three more TD passes and again was not intercepted (144.4 QB rating) in KC’s 41-14 thrashing of the Pats. He’s been greatly helped by a KC rushing game which ranks fourth with 145.3 YPG. Jamaal Charles ran for 92 yards and a TD in his return from an ankle injury Monday, while Knile Davis added 107 on the ground, a week after gaining a career-high 132 at Miami.
The 49ers faced a HUGE test last week at home against the 3-0 Eagles, as San Francisco had opened 1-2 and most troubling, had been outscored 52-3 after halftime the first three weeks. The 49ers fell behind 17-13 at the half last Sunday but “turned the tables,” holding Philly’s scary-good offense without a point in the second half, while scoring 13 points for a 26-20 win. San Francisco got its running game going (218 yards and 5.2 YPC) with Gore gaining a season-high 119. That’s San Francisco (and Jim Harbaugh) football, along with a tough defense.
The 49ers allow the second-fewest YPG (287.3 per) and second-fewest rushing yards (69.8 per), which should come in handy vs that KC running game. Coach Jim Harbaugh would like to quiet his critics with a win after reports surfaced last weekend that the fourth-year coach has lost the faith of his players. "Personally I think that's a bunch of crap," he responded. "People say what they say."That said, I think there is a some trouble “behind the scenes” in San Francisco but I never let that seep into my handicapping (it’s TOOOO dangerous).
Here’s what we KNOW. San Francisco put the clamps on the high-powered offense of Philadelphia, which scored its three TDs via a blocked punt, an interception and a punt return. That’s about as impressive as it gets. KC, off a near-perfect effort Monday night over the Pats, may just have trouble matching that level of play here. Plus, while Smith downplays any hard feelings towards the 49ers saying, "No bitterness at all. What happened there the end of the (2012) year, losing my job, you get to that point and I say this a lot, worrying about anything that was outside your control and dwelling on any of that stuff is only going to have a negative impact," it wouldn’t come as a surprise if he was more than a little ‘tight’ in this one (I’m just saying!).
The 49ers are 11-1 SU in October under coach Jim Harbaugh and like last week, I’ll ‘go to the well’ with the 49ers again, although this is a smaller play.
Nick Parsons
Baltimore vs. Detroit
Pick: Over
Thanks to the Detroit Bullpen, this is a must win game for the Tigers to keep their World Series hopes alive. The will be sending David Price tot eh mound to get the job done and extend their season. I can throw out records and ERA’s and so and so hits this average on grass when the temperature on Mars falls between this and that… But does it really matter. I am going by what I see. The Tigers have shown they can hit Baltimore pitching in the series and during the year. Price has given up runs as of late and I see Baltimore getting a couple in this game. Detroit has to win so I see them coming out aggressively at the plate trying to get on top early. As over betters we always have the Detroit pen to fall back on. They haven’t been able to get anybody out this series and if the Tigers has a competent reliever this Tigers would be the ones going for a sweep.
Dave Price
New Orleans Saints -10
New Orleans is 1-3 but each of the three defeats have come on the road. The Saints are a different team at home where they are an impressive 36-16 ATS in their last 52. They are 8-1 ATS in all home games since the start of last season, including 6-0 ATS during this span if they check in off an ATS loss. They have won these six by an average of 21.4 points. The Saints have crushed Tampa Bay by 11, 41 and 25 points the last three times they've hosted, and another double-digit victory appears likely with the way Tampa Bay has struggled to defend the pass. The Buccaneers ranks 29th in the NFL with 272.5 passing yards allowed per game. Consider that New Orleans is 11-1 ATS in home games against teams that give up 235.0 passing yards per game or more under coach Payton, including 6-0 ATS versus teams that allow 260.0 passing yards per game or more. It's won these six by an average of 14.8 points. Teams headed up by coach Lovie Smith are just 4-13 ATS all-time in road games versus team that average 7.0 yards per pass or more. The Bucs found a way at Pittsburgh last Sunday, but that win puts them in a fade spot here. You want to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points off an upset win if they are matched up against an opponent off a road loss. Doing so has produced a 102-56 ATS mark since 1983.
Chase Diamond
St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: St. Louis Rams
This game features the 1-2 Rams at the 3-1 Eagles. Rams have played much better lately and the Eagles are off a huge physical loss versus the Niners and continue to be real banged up on the O line. Eagles have a possible look ahead the the division rival Giants here and might just take the Rams lightly here. 73% of the public are backing the Eagles here and Vegas dropped the line from the key number of 7 to 6.5 showing us who the sharps have today.
DAVE COKIN
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT TENNESSEE TITANS
PLAY: TENNESSEE TITANS -1.5
Let’s give some props to the Cleveland Browns. They’re just 1-2 to start the season, but it’s also true that they’re within just a play or two of being 3-0 and the biggest surprise in the NFL. However at the same time, it’s just as easy to see how the Browns could be 0-3.
I’m focusing a little more on some of those negative numbers in breaking down Cleveland’s game with the Titans on Sunday. Sure, there are some positives out there. Brian Hoyer has been pick-free through three games, Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell are each running the ball impressively, and Andrew Hawkins is emerging as a legit talent at wide receiver. The Browns are absolutely doing more on offense than I anticipated prior to the season, especially with Josh Gordon having to sit out the proceedings.
But the Cleveland defense has some holes. The Browns are having a great deal of trouble stopping the run, with opponents connecting for an absurdly high 5.2 yards per carry. That’s bad, and so is the fact the Browns are allowing a 66% completion rate.
The Titans would appear to therefore match up well with Cleveland. I see Tennessee being at its best when they feature the run. They probably haven’t done as much of that as they should so far, although some of the imbalance is due to operating deficits in their last three outings. I’m hoping and expecting to see much more of the running backs here.
The Titans will also likely have Jake Locker back under center. Locker is not exactly a world beater at QB, but he’s better than Charlie Whitehurst, who filled in ineffectively last week in the drubbing at Indianapolis.
What I need to see from the Titans here is a boring game plan that features lots of running and controlled passing game with tight end Delanie Walker getting featured once again. I really feel as though Tennessee will be able to put together some lengthy and productive drives if they stay within themselves.
The Browns are off the bye week, so they ought to be fresh here, and there’s no doubt about it, Cleveland has been more competitive than Tennessee through the first month of the season. But I’m a believer in finding value with strength vs. weakness and if that happens to be in the run game, I’m consistently going to back the team that figures to win that stat. In this case, I believe there’s a legit chance the Titans could outrush the Browns by a substantial margin, and if they accomplish that, they’re a likely winner here. No problem with the price as it’s less than a field goal, so Tennessee minus the small spot is the play.
Harry Bondi
Baltimore / Indianapolis Over 49
Today, this total is way too low as both offenses come in with hot QBs and offenses that are clicking on all cylinders. Andrew Luck and the Colts are 4-0 to the over this year, having scored 41 and 44 points the last two weeks while averaging better than 500 yards of total offense per game. Baltimore got it cranking last week against Carolina with 454 offensive yards and 38 points and the Ravens have thrived in these conditions, going 7-1 to the over the last 8 games they've played indoors when the line is 50 or less. Shootout!