Scott Delaney
My free play for Sunday is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, plus the big number in New Orleans, as I think the Saints are worse off than what we've seen, and they will take the Buccaneers too lightly today.
Tampa Bay is in after a huge win over Pittsburgh, morale is high and coach Lovie Smith will know how to get the most out of his troops when they hit the turf inside the Superdome in the Big Easy.
New Orleans is always going to be dangerous offensively as long as Sean Payton is the coach and Drew Brees is the quarterback. But as long as the defensive coordinator is Rob Ryan, these guys are in big trouble. The Saints have the third-best offense in the league, but also have the 29th overall defense after getting humiliated in Dallas in a 38-17 loss to the Cowboys.
As much as I know the Saints are better than the Bucs, I think this game is going to be closer than expected.
3♦ TAMPA BAY
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Buffalo Bills over Detroit as I believe they are catching too many points. Plus, the sharp money in Vegas is on the Bills and the public is pounding the Lions because Buffalo has looked so atrocious.
Buffalo's still in a pretty good spot here, considering they're playing their second straight road game as a pup off a SU loss. Add to that the fact they get Kyle Orton under center instead of EJ Manuel and I think they're actually a better team. Vegas might not agree, but there is little doubt Orton gives them a better chance to win.
True, it's going to be tough to run against the league's 7th-best run defense in the league, but Kyle Orton is a veteran and should be able to pick apart this secondary by finding holes in their zone. Sammy Watkins hasn't had that huge breakout game, but today could be that day.
Calvin Johnson still isn't 100% and the Lions running game has been a complete joke with Bush and Bell averaging less than 3 yards per carry. Detroit might be able to win this game, but it won't be by enough to cover this number.
Take the Bills as your free play of the day.
3♦ BUFFALO
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Cleveland Browns fresh off their bye week to head to Nashville and upend the backsliding Titans of Tennessee.
After an opening week win and cover over Kansas City, the Titans have scored a grand total of just 34 points in their last 3 games - all losses both straight up and against the spread. Tennessee enters this one as the small home favorite, a role they are just 4-8-1 in since the 2011 season.
The Brownies have been in all 3 of their games played this season, and have covered in 2 of those 3 as the underdog. Brian Hoyer is 4-2 his last 6 starts for Cleveland, and I have to believe that the week off benefits the visitors here today.
Tennessee a go against for the time being.
Play on the Brownies.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Gabriel Dupont
I will play the Texans as my free play today, against the Cowboys, in this Texas two-step at Jerry Jones' playground.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Texans - Houston is very tough up front, with defensive end J.J. Watt leading the charge. He has an NFL-high 16 QB hits, twice as many as any other player and more than 13 teams this season. He can wreak havoc on Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, and will force DeMarco Murray to bounce back into the trenches, which could slow production.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Cowboys - As good as the Cowboys have been on defense - improved from the worst in the league last season - they worry me with the number of yards they give out. This could cause problems in the second half, even if Dallas is up by double digits, as the Texans are capable of making this a close one.
In conclusion, why HOUSTON is my SMART PLAY in this game - There is so much pride with this game, as both hail from the Lone Star state and both are a surprising 3-1. They've already superseded expectations for the first month of the season, and now they're both setting their sights on division titles. It's premature to discuss the notion, since we're just in Week 5, but these teams are believing their own hype.
Houston is going to let Dallas walk all over it, and this one could possibly come down to the end. I'll take the underdog here.
2♦ HOUSTON
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Philadelphia Eagles over the St. Louis Rams, as I don't believe the Rams have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the highly explosive Eagles.
The Eagles, who have won the last three meetings, catch the Rams after a bye week, but that break doesn't bother me. They won't be able to challenge the skill-position players Philly boasts, especially on offense.
One person I've been most impressed with is Jeremy Maclin, who has 21 catches for 364 yards and three touchdowns in four games to help the Eagles to their 3-1 start. In Chip Kelly's up-tempo offense, Maclin has a good chance to become the first player in team history to surpass 80 catches, 1,400 yards and 12 TDs.
Maclin should have a big game today against the Rams' defense, which is ranked 12th overall. I must admit, the Rams are ranked third against the pass this season, but in playing this uptempo team, which is tiring with its no-huddle offense, St. Louis will struggle to keep up.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA
Brad Wilton
Tampa showed everyone the old NFL adage, "on any given Sunday", as the Bucs followed their embarrassing egg in Atlanta with am outright win at Pittsburgh last weekend. Now on the road for the third straight week, look for the Buccaneers to get leveled by a New Orleans team that is looking to rebound from their loss at Dallas a week ago.
The Saints are riding an 18-0 straight up run in the Superdome when Sean Payton is on the sidelines, and they also 17-0-1 against the spread in those 18 games that Payton has coached. Included is a cover Week Two against Minnesota.
Look for Nawlins to hand the Bucs their 6th straight series defeat on Sunday. The Saints are on a 5-0 straight up series run, and a 4-1 spread run the past 5 meetings since 2011. New Orleans has also covered the past 3 series meetings on their home turf against Tampa Bay.
Nothing changes today.
Take the Saints.
5♦ NEW ORLEANS
Matt Fargo
Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Buffalo Bills +7
Not many will be giving Buffalo a chance here as the Bills come in riding a two-game losing streak and have made a change at quarterback, going with Kyle Orton over E.J. Manual. While they have dropped two straight, they have not been playing horribly as they were outgained by only 41 yards against San Diego and actually outgained Houston last week. The defense remains the strength as Buffalo is 10th in total defense and seventh in scoring defense and while today will be a challenge, I feel they step it up. The Lions meanwhile are riding a two-game winning streak following wins over Green Bay and the Jets but that really puts them in a tough spot this week. The line is inflated because of this and Detroit plays a divisional game at Minnesota next week so they are sandwiched. After scoring 35 points in their opener against the Giants, the Lions have managed only 50 points over their last three games. The Bills are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in the second of two straight road games while the Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win. Expect this one to be a lot closer than what the linesmakers are telling us.
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Steelers -6
There is going to come a time where the line is so high for Jacksonville that there is going to be value in backing the Jaguars. This just isn’t the week. Getting the Steelers as less than a touchdown favorite here is a gift from the books. This would normally be a letdown spot, but it’s not for them because they were embarrassed at home last week by the Buccaneers. They will be looking to take out their frustration on the hapless Jaguars.
Indeed, Jacksonville is 0-4 straight up and 0-4 against the spread this season. It has lost all four games by 17 or more points to Philadelphia (17-34), Washington (10-41), Indianapolis (17-44) and San Diego (14-33). There’s a good chance that streak extends to five in a row this week. The Jaguars are scoring just 14.5 points per game and giving up 38.0 points per game, getting outscored by a whopping 23.5 points per game.
There simply isn’t a lot of talent on this Jacksonville squad. I do believe that Blake Bortles is going to go on and have a fabulous career, but the fact of the matter is that he doesn’t have much talent around him. Justin Blackmon and Mercedes Lewis are out, while Marqise Lee has missed time with a hamstring injury and is questionable to return this week. The offensive line just isn’t giving any Jacksonville QB much time. They have been sacked a league-high 20 times, which is seven more than the second-worst team.
I really like what I’ve seen from this Pittsburgh offense in 2014. It is averaging 24.2 points and 408.7 yards per game to rank 4th in the league in total offense. The balance has been awesome as they are averaging 144 rushing yards per game and 5.4 per carry, while completing 68.5 percent of their passes for 265 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt. They now have the firepower to blow teams out that they are supposed to like the Jaguars this week.
Plays on road teams (PITTSBURGH) – good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a terrible rushing team, (At Least 70 RY/game), are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS since 1983. Jacksonville is 0-8 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more yards per carry over the last three seasons. The Jaguars are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Jacksonville is 1-11 ATS in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.
Jeff Alexander
Tennessee Titans Pk
I like Tennessee to finally get back in the win column this week. The Titans have struggled offensively but I like their chances of moving the football against a Cleveland defense that is giving up 425.7 yards per game. Backing teams like Tennessee that are off a loss of 21 points or more and average just 14-18 ppg are 25-5 ATS the last 10 seasons when they are up against a team that gives up 23-27 ppg. The Tennessee defense has given up some points the last 3 weeks but against much better QBs and offenses than they'll see today. Besides the Browns haven't been able to take advantage going 0-6 ATS in their last six versus teams that give up 24 ppg or more. They've lost these games by an average of 10.9 points.
John Ryan
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots +2
The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 34-10 ATS mark for 77% winners since 2003. Play against road teams (CINCINNATI) after a win by 21 or more points and is now facing an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. It has gone 13-2 ATS over the past three seasons. I also like the 'over' in this game given the need for the Patriots to get the offense rolling in order to win this game. The Patriots defense will not be successful at getting pressure on the QB. Benagls have not allowed a sack and rank best OL in pass block grade and have a recorded a minimum of QB pressures in the NFL. The Pats do get Browning back this week, who ranked 13th among corners in man coverage stops last season. The Patriots will of course bring the blitz, but the timing of those aggressive risk taking moves must be in optimal situations. Brady has struggled, BUT they do have Gronkowski, who is always a threat to have abig game. He played in a season high 62% of the snaps last week and I expect him to exceed that number Sunday. The Pats will be able to run the ball as it is a far better choice for the Bengals defense to sit back in cover-2 and prevent the big play over the top. So, I look for the Patriots to win this game and for scoreboard to show a total far more than the posted total.
Doug Upstone
Kansas City vs. San Francisco
Play: Over 44
Play OVER on road teams like Kansas City when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, a good team outscoring opponents by four or more points a game, after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight games. History has shown teams like the Chiefs will give up more points in the first half and overall when the total is in this range, with the OVER 30-6, 83.3 percent since 2010, with an average final score 53.7 points.
James Manos
Jets at Chargers
Play: Jets +7
Call us suckers or lovers of misery, but the Jets continue to be undervalued. This sets up as a classic NFL contrarian spot with the Chargers playing well and off 3 consecutive wins while the Jets are off 3 consecutive losses and criticism of QB Smith has mounted. The Jets were in two great home dog spots each of the last two weeks and failed in both instances, so why take them here when they are on long travel? Well, for one, those results have caused the line to inflate giving us value. Also, NY should win the rushing battle and TD+dogs who outrush their opponents are always worth a look. The Chargers have RB concerns and the Jets have the defensive front seven to pressure Rivers. Buying low on the Jets with this bet..
Bob Balfe
LA Angels +110
It seems like these Royals are a team of destiny, but I still think the Angels are a far better team and it is going to be hard to sweep them today. This series by no means is over, but you have to like the Royals chances to advance. Sometimes the better team doesn’t always win and that is why you play the game. Shields has not been pitching too well as of late and the Angels should take this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Power Angle Play
Indianapolis/ Baltimore Over 49: The Colts have been throwing the ball all over the field this year and I see them doing that here as well vs a Baltimore Defense that ranks 24th in the league vs the pass. Andrew Luck is having a great year and I just don't see the the Baltimore defense being able to contain him and his solid set of WRs. The Colts will score and the Ravens will have to pass as well if they hope to keep pace with this team. Flacco has been solid in leading this offense and he should have his fair share of good moments vs a Colts defense that is 21st vs the pass. This one should be fun and both offenses should let it all hang out in that game that should flirt with 60 points. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY: Game 5 dome favorites of less than 6 have gone 15-3 to the over since 2000.
Chicago +2.5 over CAROLINA: The Panthers are besieged with injuries to their RB corps and that has now made them a one dimensional team. Not good when you have a QB that has struggled and has very little to work with in the WR corps. Also hurting on this panthers squad is a defense that was shredded on the ground two weeks ago vs Pittsburgh and then through the air last week vs Baltimore. This is a team that has problems on both sides of the ball and I don't see them being able to fix that here vs a Chicago team that is much improved and looking to bounce back after a tough home loss to the Packers last week. The Dog is 5-0-1 the last 6 in this series and I look for that to continue here.
Arizona/ Denver Under 48: This Arizona defense is very solid and has the kind of defense that can slow down the Broncos. The Cardinals have allowed just 316.3 ypg and have yet to allow more than 17 points in a game. they also have had the week off to prepare for this Denver offense. Denver has also had the week off, but still there is just something that is not right with this offense. After setting all kinds of records on offense last year the Broncos come in ranked just 22nd in total offense and 12th in scoring. They are just not putting up the same numbers as a year ago. They are an uptempo team, but their kind of offense also keeps the clock rolling and Arizona is not a team that let's you go down the field and score easily. They will make you work the field and use clock. Arizona is not an explosive offensive team and they will also take their time and work the ball down he field, which is also another way to combat the Denver offense. I see this one in the lower 40s at best.
BEST OF THE REST
St Louis/ Philadelphia Over 47.5: The Eagles offense had some issues last week and LeSean McCoy has had some problems getting going this year. That should change here vs a porous Rams run defense. It is important for the Eagles to get their running game going as it opens up the rest of the offense and that should happen in this one. The Rams are 30th in points allowed this year at 28.3 ppg and the Eagles should put up 30+ here on them, especially coming of that horrible offensive showing in San Francisco last week. The Eagle defense is nothing special as they come in 27th overall and have allowed 26 ppg on the year. Behind Austin Davis it looks as if the Rams have a decent passing game to work with and they will need to throw allot here if they hope to keep pace with the Eagles high flying attack. These teams have combined to allow 54.3 ppg this year and we also note that teams that have a divisional home game on Monday night on deck have gone 11-0 to the Over if the OU line is more than 41. Points aplenty in the City of Brotherly Love.
Brady Kannon
Jacksonville Jaguars +7
We found out a lot about The Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday and really it confirmed what quite a few of us believed, that this team is old, banged up on defense, and is probably average at best. Two Sundays ago, it was the perfect set up for Pittsburgh when we rode them to an easy victory over The Carolina Panthers but reality set in against Tampa Bay as they were obviously not deserving of being a 7.5 point favorite.. and now, despite losing to The Buccaneers at home, they are going to go ahead and lay a touchdown on the road? Let's first look at Coach Mike Tomlin, who is 3-and-9 ATS against winless teams and 0-and-5 ATS in his last five tries. Secondly, look to The Jaguars who first and foremost are a home underdog getting a touchdown.. which converts for the dog over 60% of the time. Secondly, Jacksonville fits into another situational trend that is 20-6-and-2 ATS.
What these trends are telling us is that you can't expect a bad team to lay points on the road to a desperate team at home.. that is not a good NFL success formula.. and I don't expect The Steelers to "Bounce Back" when they're facing an opponent that doesn't necessarily get their attention.. as the first of two straight road games, mind you. Blake Bortles looked to be an improvement last week in San Diego and while The Raiders continue to be a disastrous, worst team in football, The Jaguars, I believe actually have hope and show effort. They improved mightily over the last 8-games of last season and it just might be that they are moving in that direction again. More so however, this is a play against Pittsburgh as a big favorite, who is a team going in the wrong direction.. and for good measure, The Steelers are 0-and-5 ATS in this series when installed as the favorite.
Ya might even sprinkle a little bit here on the money line as I would not be surprised.