SPORTS WAGERS
KANSAS CITY -120 over L.A. Angels
The Angels are made a big favorite in both games in Los Angeles. They proceed to lose them both and now the series shifts to Kansas City, where they’re a small underdog. There are times when the favorite offers up some value and this is one of those times. The Royals return with momentum, a huge psychological edge and a distinct advantage in many key areas, most notably in their ability to cause havoc on the base paths. The Royals figure to get plenty of base runners in this one against C.J. Wilson. When the Angels were pulling away from the field in the AL West, one pitcher who did make much of a contribution was C.J. Wilson, who hasn’t been the same since returning from a July DL stint. The difference between Wilson’s first and second half performances was stark. His first half looked a lot like 2013 with his xERA of 3.90 showing that he was actually underachieving. But the second half xERA of 6.00 shows the skills weren’t the same. Wilson is walking a lot more batters and striking out less. He’s also giving up more line drives and fly balls. In particular, lefties are really teeing off on Wilson. The timing of Wilson’s struggles indicates that he may not be completely over the ankle injury. Over his last 28 innings, Wilson has an awful BB/K split of 18/25 and the Royals do not strike out much. Those 25 K’s are not supported at all, as Wilson’s swing and miss rate over that same spam is a pedestrian 7%. He also posted a 1.55 WHIP over his final six starts and in his final start he walked seven batters while whiffing two in 7 frames. Overall this season, Wilson walked 85 batters in 176 innings and issuing walks to this team is a recipe for disaster.
James Shields doesn’t have the greatest post-season record but this one isn’t about backing him, although he’s very capable of throwing a gem and not walking anyone. The Royals have the Angels on the ropes and they have an outstanding opportunity to finish them off here. They have a great bullpen and a batting lineup that is getting key hits at key times. It’s often been said that the closeout game is the toughest win of them all but from our vantage point, this may be the easiest assignment that the Royals will have to close it out and we expect them to do exactly that against Wilson.
OC Dooley
Titans +1
At most offshore locations Tennessee opened as a home favorite but there has been a dramatic swing to the other side. Despite progress being made the bottom line is that Cleveland is a disastrous 2-22 SU/ROAD in the past twenty four chances so for them to be laying points is a bit much. I have found out that Tennessee is not pancking from a 1-3 start where three of the games have been on the road. The Titans get back starting signal caller Jake Locker from injury today. In the last two years when facing poor defenses who allow on average at least 24 points per game the Browns are an ugly 0-6 ATS