Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 6

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Atlanta at LA Dodgers
The Braves look to build on their 5-1 record in Julio Teheran's last 6 road starts. Atlanta is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+125)

Game 921-922: Atlanta at LA Dodgers (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 15.172; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 14.052
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+125); Over

Game 923-924: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Kelly) 16.252; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 17.803
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-155); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-155); Under

NHL

Vancouver at Calgary
The Canucks look to build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 meetings with Calgary. Vancouver is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Canucks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-150)

Game 51-52: Philadelphia at Carolina (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.626; Carolina 10.798
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105); Over

Game 53-54: Anaheim at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 10.207; Winnipeg 11.737
Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-135); Under

Game 55-56: Vancouver at Calgary (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.822; Calgary 10.435
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-150); Over

WNBA

Atlanta at Minnesota
The Lynx look to open up the series at home and take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Minnesota is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 20 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9 1/2)

Game 651-652: Atlanta at Minnesota (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 104.384; Minnesota 124.986
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 20 1/2; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 155 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-9 1/2); Over

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Carolina vs. ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Panthers will come out of their bye week, heading to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. Carolina's defense pitched a shutout at home in a 38-0 win over the Giants on September 22.
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Offense has been hard to come by for the Panthers though, who rank last in the NFL in passing, averaging just 170 yards per game. They have been successful running the ball though, averaging over 150 yards per game on the ground.
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The good news for under bettors is that when Carolina leans on the running game, it chews up a lot of time off the clock.
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Arizona has also been very solid against the run, only Denver has allowed fewer rushing yards than the Cardinals. Carson Palmer has been inconsistent, or consistently bad, depending on how you want to look at it. He's thrown six interceptions this season, and just four touchdowns.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee TitansFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chiefs defense was ranked #3 in the league after Week 3 which shows why the team has shown the success this year. Alex Smith has been a surprise for most of the public this season and it looks like he will have good success all season under Andy Reid if he can stay away from injuries. The Chiefs are 4-0 SU this season along with 3-1 ATS.
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The Titans have been a huge surprise this year, but this success might come to a hault after losing QB Jake Locker last week to a hip injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick will have the fans all over him if he can not pick up where Locker left off and we all know from watching Fitzpatrick in the past, he does not deal with the pressure too well. The one thing the Titans have going for them is their offensive line after adding RG Chance Warmack and LG Andy Levitre which should help out Fitzpatrick.
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The Titans are going to be outmatched in this game against the Chiefs. Kansas City's defense should be able to limit the rushing attack of Chris Johnson which will lead to Ryan Fitzpatrick trying to move the chains through the air. Look for the Chiefs to go into Week 6 5-0 on the season and 4-1 ATS.
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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay PackersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Green Bay Packers -7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit has allowed 25.2 PPG, allowing 32 points against the Bears last week. Their offense has averaged 23 PPG, but on the road they only averaged 20.5 PPG. The Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meeting with the Packers.
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Packers are coming off a loss in Cincinnati that has to have the team very frustrated. Green Bay will be coming off a bye week looking to take advantage of a very mediocre Lions' defense. They are 16-5 ATS following their last 21 defeats.

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Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay PackersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Green Bay Packers -6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The visiting Detroit Lions sit at 3-1 SU and ATS after a 42-30 win over the Chicago Bears in Week 4. Matt Stafford went 23-for-35 for 242 yards one TD and INT. Reggie Bush had a season-high 139 yards rushing and a score on 18 carries for one TD score. The Lions scored 24 straight points, including three TDs in a span of 3 minutes, 26 seconds. The Lions defense forced four fumbles. The Green Bay Packers sit at a disappointing 1-2 and is coming off a bye week. The Packers allowed the Bengals to come from behind in the four quarter in a 30-34 loss. Aaron Rodgers and the usually sure handed offense coughed up the ball four times in this game with Rodgers throwing two INTs to his only one TD. While the Lions are coming in strong off another win I like the fact we are getting a desperate Green Bay team off a bye week. The Packers are 2-1 ATS coming off a bye week the past three seasons. The Pack has also been downright dominant against divisional opponents of late, going a healthy 11-2 ATS. Green Bay in friendly confines has been a spread covering machine of late going 14-5 ATS. The Lions are just 5-8 ATS versus the division. Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 ATS versus Green Bay the last three seasons. Green Bay was nursing a few injuries and should be well rested after the extra week off. Don’t over think this one and lay the points with the home team.

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Kansas City vs. TennesseeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Though the Titans will be without QB Jake Locker here & the Chiefs come in w/ the league's top scoring defense, I do think the value lies w/ the Over.
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Tennessee is a surprising 3-1 not only because of Locker, but also because of a much improved defense. Last season saw the Titans rank dead last in the entire NFL in scoring defense. Last week though, it was the offense carrying the team to victory with 38 points. Without Locker, it will be tough to match that level of scoring. But then again they won't have to. As a former starter in this league, Ryan Fitzgerald is a capable backup and I think will be able to lead some scoring drives. The Titans are 6-2 Over the last three seasons coming off a home win.
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Kansas City has gone Under in all four games. That's due in large part to allowing only 41 total points. The defense has also forced 12 turnovers, which can create scoring opportunities for the offense. It's also important to note that this will be the lowest total for either team this season. The last four times these teams have played, the Over has cashed each time.

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Eagles vs. GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Here are my keys to the game.
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1. Two Horrible Defenses - In terms of points allowed, these are the two worst defenses in the entire league. The Giants are the worst, allowing an average of 36.5 points/game through the first four weeks. The Eagles aren't far behind, allowing 34.5 points/game, and they were just torched for 52 by Denver last week. The fewest points the Giants have allowed in a game this year is 31. For the Eagles, the number is 26. Therefore, both teams would have to establish season lows in points allowed, or one by a significant margin, to keep this game from going Over.
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2. Philadelphia Offense - People are beginning to turn on Chip Kelly's offense en masse, but this is still a unit that is putting up good numbers (24.7 pts/game) and entered last week #1 in the NFL in rushing yards by a wide margin. Because they fell behind Peyton Manning and the Broncos early last week, it was difficult to get into a rhythm. They should not face the same issue this week.
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3. X-Factor - Going into last week, Tom Coughlin was 13-1 Over in his NFL coaching career if his team had scored nine points or less the previous game.

Alex Smart

Denver vs. Dallas
Play: Over 56

The Boyz come into this home tilt having averaged 32 ppg at home in their L/6 dating back to last season. Denver their opponents own the leagues most explosive offense averaging 45 ppg on 483 yards per game. Dallas has gone over in 20 of their L/28 home tilts. Im betting this one goes over the number to.

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Lions (3-1) at Packers (1-2)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Packers are the best sub .500 team out there. Now they’ll get a chance to show us why as they host a Detroit team that has raised its level of play. The Lions have won and covered three of first four, good enough for a share of first place atop this NFC North division. But Lambeau has been a minefield for Detroit. The Motor City Lions have not won here since 1991 and they play here once a year. Since QB Aaron Rodgers’ arrival as the starter in Green Bay, the Packers have taken down Detroit in eight straight here. We expect more of the same. Green Bay will be in a foul mood after letting one get away prior to its bye in Cincinnati. The Pack can hardly afford to drop three games behind either Detroit or Chicago in the win column. They have the personnel to prevent that from happening, especially with some of their hobbled returning after a week off. Detroit is still prone to mistakes. It also doesn't protect its quarterback very well. Both are likely to cost them in this important game for the host. TAKING: PACKERS –7
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Ravens (2-2) at Dolphins (3-1)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Joe Flacco threw five interceptions last week but we’re not going to put much stock in it as that was purely an anomaly. Expect the resilient Ravens to get back on track here against a Dolphins team whose 3-1 record appears to be better than they are. While Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill may possess passing skills, he doesn’t have much of a receiving corps to work. Nor does he have a front line to protect him. The young pivot has been sacked a league leading 18 times already this year and help does appear to be on the way, especially on a short week. DE Terrell Suggs and the savvy Baltimore coaching staff should be able to exploit this glaring weakness. The Ravens are a resilient bunch, having the makeup to bounce back after an upset loss at Buffalo last week. Prior to that game, the champs had not allowed a touchdown in two games and Miami’s offence is not exactly one to fear at the moment. TAKING: RAVENS +3
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Jets (2-2) at Falcons (1-3)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Despite being two games below .500, the Falcons are a prohibitive favourite. That’s because Atlanta has lost games to some of the big boys, who are a combined 11-1 on the season. They include the Saints and Patriots. Now they’ll face a little tyke. While the Jets maintain an even record, they just aren’t very good. New York’s defence is a reasonable unit but the offence is useless. To make matters worse, the Jets’ only offensive threat is sidelined for this one as WR Santonio Holmes has a hammy issue. QB Geno Smith has the worst passer rating among active starters, a miniscule 68.9. He’s thrown for just four touchdowns, compared to eight interceptions and has been sacked 14 times. Ouch! Now he’ll face one of the league’s toughest home teams (34-6 under QB Matt Ryan) playing in a pivotal game heading into its bye week. This will also be New York’s third road game in four weeks and they have yet to win one. TAKING: FALCONS –9½
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Chiefs (4-0) vs. Titans (3-1)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both teams playing well, limiting mistakes and playing sound defence. However, we’re going to use the Andy Reid angle here and fade the undefeated Chiefs. Reid spent more than a decade in the NFC East. That division has suddenly become weak and combined with Reid’s knowledge, the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants became easy pickings. KC’s other win was against the pitiful Jaguars. Now the Chiefs will venture to an unfamiliar place to face a Titans squad that won’t let anyone get away on them. The Titans’ lost QB Jake Locker last week but that could be a blessing as back up Ryan Fitzpatrick has better passing skills. Look for a close and conservative affair here. TAKING: TITANS +3
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Jaguars (0-4) at Rams (1-3)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It takes a strong stomach to back the Jaguars However, we couldn’t give away this many points with the Rams if they were playing against the band. St. Louis is a dysfunctional group. After being void of playmakers at the wideout position for ages, they drafted for speed at that spot. A month into the season, QB Sam Bradford ranks 32 nd in yards per pass. St. Louis’ running game is atrocious and is one of only two teams to not have a rushing touchdown on the year. Things aren’t much better defensively as the Rams have lost their previous two games by a combined 66-18. We know it’s the dreadful Jaguars but if they’re ever to contend in a game, this meagre opponent is as good a candidate as any. TAKING: JAGUARS +11½
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Patriots (4-0) at Bengals (2-2)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bengals are even Stevens. Not very good. Not very bad. They’ve won two games. They’ve lost two games. They’ve scored 81 points. They’ve allowed 81 points. They have talented players but they still seem shy of the mark. Even so, this might be a good spot for them. The undefeated Patriots could be ready to lose. They played three powder puffs in the early going before an admirable win at the struggling Falcons last week. They will travel again to face a Cincinnati team that has won both of its home games and they’ll do so with a busy infirmary that includes NT Vince Wolfork and starting RB Steven Ridley. The Pats also have a home date with the Saints on deck and that could be more of a focus. TAKING: BENGALS –1
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Seahawks (4-0) at Colts (3-1)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s not news that the Seahawks are an exceptionally strong home team. Now, with two wins on the road this year in as many tries, many will think that they’ve turned that corner. We’re not so sure. Seattle could have easily lost its opener in Carolina and only a boneheaded Matt Schaub served them up a win in Houston last week. The Seahawks were dominated last week everywhere but the scoreboard. Seattle will face a hot Indianapolis team returning home after a pair of road wins by a dominant 64-10 combined, including that huge win in San Francisco. Colts’ fans will be in frenzy as they root on their boys against a top contender. Also note that a lesser Indy team was 4-0 vs. the number as a home dog last season. TAKING: COLTS +3½
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Saints (4-0) at Bears (3-1)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Traveling on a short week after a win is not the ideal situation to be backing the visitor but prefer sizzling Saints to a suspect Chicago bunch. If the Lions can put up 40, with Reggie Bush running rampant, how many can the Saints tally with Darren Sproles and a top notch passing game? It doesn’t help the Bears that CB Charles Tillman has been playing while he nurses a nagging groin injury. Meanwhile, this prolific offence is suddenly supported by a greatly improved Saints defence as it has held all opponents to 17 or less points. The Bears are usually a tough out at home but they barely beat the woeful Vikings in their last game at Soldier Field, after just slipping by the Bengals in Chicago’s home opener. TAKING: SAINTS at Even
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Eagles (1-3) at Giants (0-4)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pick your poison. The Eagles have lost three straight while the Giants couldn’t beat the dust out of carpet. Given the choice, must lean to a Philadelphia squad that at least has some people making plays on the field. RB LeSean McCoy could be the difference maker here. The G-Men can’t stop anyone on the ground and McCoy is still among the best all-purpose backs in the game. Conversely, the Giants’ run game currently ranks 28 th in the league, anchored by a lack of skill and experience at the position in addition to a porous offensive line. If the Giants have a strength, we haven’t seen it and having been outscored 146-61 on the season makes it difficult to endorse them when they aren’t taking points. Simple rationale rules here. TAKING: EAGLES +1
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Panthers (1-2) at Cardinals (2-2)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Panthers are another team that are likely better than their record indicates as Carolina lost its first two game by a combined six points, followed by a 38-0 drubbing of the Giants. The Panthers have only allowed 12 points per game. They've had two weeks to prepare for this visit. Still, the team finds ways to lose and that’s a plague that is difficult to cure. This venue won’t make it any easier as the Cardinals are at their best in the desert. Arizona is happy to be home after splitting a pair on the road. Bruce Arians’ club won it’s only home game thus far, limiting the potent Lions to 21 points. The Cardinals already stout run defence will be happy to get starting LB Daryl Washington back after serving a suspension. TAKING: CARDINALS +1½
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Chargers (2-2) at Raiders (1-3)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chargers have dominated this series and recent form would suggest that the trend continues. However, the Raiders will get QB Terrelle Pryor back for this one after sitting out last week and that could be the difference. The jury is still out on Pryor as a long term solution but he has shown signs. As a runner, he’s exceptional. The question marks remain on his passing ability. But his throwing ability may not matter on this day as San Diego ranks 25 th against the run, allowing in excess of 120 yard per game. Making matters worse for the Bolts is a cluster injury problem on its offensive line. Divisional road faves are high risk and this one has more than its share of warning signs. TAKING: RAIDERS +4
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Broncos (4-0) at Cowboys (2-2)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jerry Jones always wanted a super power team to play in his building. Too bad they’ll be wearing orange. The Broncos continue to toy with all comers, setting various offensive records under the superb guidance of QB Peyton Manning. To think that the Cowboys have the mettle to slow this freight train down would be delusional. As former Colts’ coach Tony Dungy so astutely pointed out last week, Peyton is very familiar with Dallas defensive co-ordinator Monte Kiffin’s schemes. Kiffin was the DC for the Colts when Manning was there and he practiced against if for years. For Manning, that’s like being handed the answers before a test. The Cowboys still can’t find an identity, their play calling is irrational and home field rarely helps them. TAKING: BRONCOS –7½
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Texans (2-2) at 49ers (2-2)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Even though this game is a featured Sunday nighter, the Texans are not ready for prime time. They never have been and until they smarten up, they never will be. Houston has two of the top defensive players in the league, a better than decent running game, a star receiver and yet they struggle. An inept coach is one reason and the other is a lame brained quarterback. Wounded after a devastating loss to the Seahawks last week, these Texans will not be shown any mercy here. The 49ers were thoroughly embarrassed in their last home game when the Colts annihilated them by a 27-7 count. On 10 days rest and sitting two games behind the Seahawks, expect the Niners to pull out all stops. TAKING: 49ERS -6

NFL Betting Picks

6-Point Teaser - Eagles +8.5 and Falcons -2.5

Sometimes I recommend betting each team on the spread if you can't bet teasers, but in this case I would just lay off. I would lean Eagles and Falcons to cover, but I would much rather capture key numbers 3 and 7 in a teaser like we've done. *Note that this teaser might not be available anymore as the Falcons have moved to -9 at most books.

The first leg of this teaser has the Eagles +8.5 capturing both 3 and 7 as they were 2.5 point underdogs in New York. Although the Eagles are just 1-3 they could find themselves in first place in the NFC East with a win and Dallas loss to Denver. The Eagles have lost to San Diego, Kansas City and Denver, after opening the season with a win in Washington. Philadelphia's losses have come to some good teams, and I think they are better than their record. On the other hand the Giants are 0-4 with losses to Dallas, Denver, Carolina and Kansas City. Those losses have also come to some good teams, but they haven't really been in any of their four games (other than coming from behind against Dallas to make it interesting). Their latest two losses have been 38-0 in Carolina and 31-7 in Kansas City. Philadelphia has the league's 2nd ranked offense averaging 458 yards per game, while the Giants are just 23rd with 325 ypg. The Giants have the edge defensively giving up 384 yards against per game (21st) compared to the Eagles who are 32nd giving up 446 yapg - but New York has given up a league worst 36.5 points against per game. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New York, and the underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings overall. I like the Eagles getting more than a touchdown.

The second leg of this teaser has the Falcons -2.5 at home vs the Jets on Monday night. Surprisingly the Jets have opened the season 2-2 with a last second win against Tampa Bay and a 7 point victory over Buffalo at home. Their two losses have come on the road as they lost to New England and Tennessee last week. The Falcons have had a rough 1-3 start to the year with a losses in New Orleans, Miami and at home against New England last Sunday Night - with their lone win coming against St Louis. Atlanta's offense ranks 7th in the NFL averaging 398 ypg and 23.5 ppg (14th), while the Jets rank 12th offensively with 366 yards per game but have scored just 17 ppg (28th). The Jets have a big advantage on defense as they currently rank 2nd in the NFL, although I'm not too sold as they've faced some average offenses in Tampa Bay, Buffalo at home, Tennessee, and New England when Brady was struggling with his new receivers. Rookie Geno Smith will be playing in what will be a loud domed stadium on Monday Night in Atlanta, and after last week's 4 turnover performance I don't see him and the Jets keeping pace with the Falcons offense - especially now without one of their key targets, Santonio Holmes, sidelined with an injury. I like the Falcons to cover the FG and complete the second leg of this teaser.

Carolina Panthers -1

Panthers / Cardinals Under 42

My first 4 Unit play in a couple weeks comes on the Carolina Panthers -1 as they are fresh off a bye week and heading to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. Carolina is just 1-2 on the season so far, but looking at their games they should still feel good about where they are at. In Week 1 they played maybe the best NFC team right now in the Seattle Seahawks and lost 12-7. They followed that up with a last second one-point loss in Buffalo against a pretty good Bills team, and then last week they thumped the New York Giants 38-0 at home. That game should have really built confidence in both the offense and defense. Take note that the Panthers defense is currently ranked 10th in the NFL giving up just 318 yapg, while they've held opponents to just 12 ppg (3rd). Offensively they rank 26th overall in yards gained, but they've managed 22.7 ppg (18th). Carolina ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing, which will be important this week against a pretty good Cardinals secondary. The Cardinals are 2-2 on the year with losses @St Louis and @New Orleans and victories at home vs Detroit and @Tampa Bay last week. Offensively the Cardinals haven't been very good this year ranking 27th in ypg, and scoring just 17.2 ppg (25th). QB Carson Palmer has been one of the worst starting QBs in the league completing 57.2% of his passes for 1010 yards but with 4 TDs, 6 INTs and a low 69.8 QB Rating. Panther's QB Cam Newton has completed 59.1% of his passes for 577 yards (one less game played) but has a much better 6 TD and 2 INT ratio with a 91.9 QB Rating - and he's added 98 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Arizona's defense is how they will win games and they are ranking 19th right now in yapg and are giving up 22.2 papg (19th). Note that the Cardinals are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a game where they allowed less than 15 points against. Carolina is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. I've made some money betting on the Cardinals this year, but I think Carolina is a better team coming into this game off a bye week after a blowout win with lots of confidence. I'll take the Panthers -1 for 4 units, and I will also add 2 units on the UNDER as I don't see Arizona doing much offensively against a good Panthers defense.

Eagles / Giants - Over 53.5

See the teaser write up for some stats on each team's offense/defense. The Eagles are giving up 34.5 papg so far this season and the Giants are giving up 36.5 papg (worst two averages in the league). With that we've also got an Eagles offense that can put up points quickly, and Eli Manning who usually doesn't have problems with weaker defenses. The OVER is 6-1 in the Eagles last 7 overall and 4-1 in their last 5 road games. This game should see a lot of points, take the OVER.

Lions / Packers Over 52

Here we have Aaron Rodgers coming off a bye week vs a below average Lions defense that is giving up 25.2 papg. Rodgers is currently completing 66.4% of his passes for 1057 yards over three games with 8 TDs, 3 INTs and a 105.1 QB Rating. The Packers are scoring 32 ppg (2nd behind Denver) and averaging 454 yards per game (3rd). On the other side we have the Lions who have been close to as good offensively averaging 404 ypg (6th) and 30.5 ppg (4th). They will be going up against a Packers defense who has been poor to start the year ranking 28th giving up 404 yapg, and 29.3 papg (27th). Although we saw totals of 47 and 44 from these two teams last year, they did play to 86 points the year prior - and I think this time around we get something in between. Reggie Bush has really given this Lions team the ability to put up a lot of points every game he's healthy, and we know that Aaron Rodgers has the ability to put up a lot of scores (especially at home coming off a bye). Take the OVER.

Broncos / Cowboys Over 55

I'm coming right back on a Bronco's OVER this week as last week the Broncos and Eagles soared OVER the total that closed at 57.5 with a Denver 52-20 victory. Right now Peyton Manning has the best targets he's ever had in his career, along with a solid running game - and it's showing. Through 4 games the Broncos are averaging 483 yards per game and 44.8 points per game (both 1st in the NFL). Their defense, on the other hand, hasn't been anything special giving up 20+ points in each of their games and ranking 24th in the NFL. The Cowboys are 19th in the NFL offensively in yards gained per game, but they've converted drives into points ranking 10th with 26 ppg. QB Tony Romo has been great this year with a 72.4% completion rate with 1017 yards, 8 TDs, just 1 INT, and a 105.1 QB Rating - and he has played his best football at home. In two home games the Cowboys have put up 36 and 31 points. Although a 55 point total looks high for the NFL, when you have Manning and the Broncos averaging 44.8 points per game it looks like great value. A 35-28 type game puts this over a touchdown over the total, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the total in the 60s. Take the OVER.

Wunderdog

Carolina at Arizona
Pick: Over 41.5

This season the Carolina Panthers have scored more points in each week than they did the previous week. They put up 38 against the Giants in their last game before their bye a week ago. Last week Arizona threw up an offensive stinker, and in terms of coach Bruce Arians, it took just one word to some it up: "putrid." There is no doubt that Arizona's focus all week has been on offense. Carolina has gotten a lot out of the ground game with DeAngelo Williams and Cam Newton, and Williams is no stranger to success against Arizona where he has rambled for 417 yards in four games, topping the 100-yard mark three times. Newton likes to look downfield, and if the Panthers continue to have success on the ground they are going to steal a few long ones. The Panthers have been 16-5-2 to the OVER in their last 23 games following a game in which they generated more than 350 yards. Since Ron Rivera took over, he's followed up every single UNDER game with an OVER game (6-0). The Cardinals have gone 41-17 to the OVER in their last 58 when following a game where they scored less than 15 points. This one goes OVER the total.

Playersbet

New England Patriots v Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +1

Lets face it the Pats 4-0 record is no very impressive. The only real team they beat so far has been the Falcons and can we even consider them a real team at this point? The Patriots other wins have come over Tampa, Jets and the Bills two of which have rookie quarterbacks starting and they are lucky they even came out of those games with a win. The Pats have take on a very tough Cincinnati team – one which believes that its a Super Bowl contender and which is angry off a loss. The loss of Vince Wilfork is going to really expose this line as Wilfork wasnt a great player he was a dominate player and showed leadership. The Pats were 0-1 ATS last year, when off a road win and playing another road game. The Bengals already bounced back from their first loss with a win. They haven’t lost two straight regular season games since doing so in late Oct and early Nov. last year. Cincinnati is 2-0 at home, which includes a win over the Packers. They’re 5-1 SU/ATS their last six here, since last season, the lone loss coming by a single point. That includes wins over the Ravens and the Giants. (Note that the Ravens, Giants and Packers won the last three SB’s – and that the Bengals have beaten all three of those teams in their last six here.) We just arent sold on the Pats and we think Cincinnati finds a way to win this game

Jimmy Boyd

Denver Broncos -7

No other team in the league has been able to match the Bronco's offensive production. They are averaging 44.7 points per game this season, thanks in large part to an MVP caliber season from Peyton Manning. He has 16 touchdowns this season without a single interception, and he is facing a Cowboys secondary that has been torched to the tune of 304 passing yards allowed per game. The Cowboys have yet to face a team with as much offensive talent as the Broncos, so I can only imagine the kind of damage Peyton Manning will be able to do this week.

The Bronco's have also played some great defense this season. While their points allowed may not show it, the defense has dominated every opponent they have faced. The reason their scoring average allowed is so high for such a good defense is because of the late garbage time touchdowns opponents have scored against them. The Broncos have secured multiple score leads in the fourth quarter, so the defense has played a little softer. That has not changed the fact that they are holding opponents to just 74 yards rushing this season for 3.2 yards per carry. They have also hold opposing quarterbacks to a mere 57.8% completion rate.

Bryan Power

Kansas City vs. Tennessee
Pick: Over

Though the Titans will be without QB Jake Locker here & the Chiefs come in w/ the league's top scoring defense, I do think the value lies w/ the Over.

Tennessee is a surprising 3-1 not only because of Locker, but also because of a much improved defense. Last season saw the Titans rank dead last in the entire NFL in scoring defense. Last week though, it was the offense carrying the team to victory with 38 points. Without Locker, it will be tough to match that level of scoring. But then again they won't have to. As a former starter in this league, Ryan Fitzgerald is a capable backup and I think will be able to lead some scoring drives. The Titans are 6-2 Over the last three seasons coming off a home win.

Kansas City has gone Under in all four games. That's due in large part to allowing only 41 total points. The defense has also forced 12 turnovers, which can create scoring opportunities for the offense. It's also important to note that this will be the lowest total for either team this season. The last four times these teams have played, the Over has cashed each time.

Jesse Schule

Carolina vs. Arizona
Pick: Under

The Panthers will come out of their bye week, heading to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. Carolina's defense pitched a shutout at home in a 38-0 win over the Giants on September 22.

Offense has been hard to come by for the Panthers though, who rank last in the NFL in passing, averaging just 170 yards per game. They have been successful running the ball though, averaging over 150 yards per game on the ground.

The good news for under bettors is that when Carolina leans on the running game, it chews up a lot of time off the clock.

Arizona has also been very solid against the run, only Denver has allowed fewer rushing yards than the Cardinals. Carson Palmer has been inconsistent, or consistently bad, depending on how you want to look at it. He's thrown six interceptions this season, and just four touchdowns.