Teddy Covers
Philadelphia vs. N.Y. Giants
Pick: Philadelphia
After facing the Chiefs and Broncos defenses in back-2-back weeks, this is a major step down in class for the Eagles offense against the struggling Giants stop unit. The Giants yards-per-play numbers aren’t bad, holding foes to 5.3 ypp in contrast to the Eagles 6.0 ypp allowed (only five teams are worse).
But those ypp numbers are skewed, because in the second half of each of their first four games, the Giants opponent has enjoyed a big lead, just looking to run out the clock. In fact, the Giants have trailed by 17 points or more in all four previous contests.
Things have gone from bad to worse for the Giants suspect offensive line over the past week. Center David Baas is hurt. Guard Chris Snee is hurt. Tackle David Diehl is less than 100%, no sure thing to suit up or to be effective here. That leaves rookies and inexperience galore on the line, with Justin Pugh, Brandon Mosely, James Brewer and Jim Cordle – not exactly a who’s who of elite linemen – in the mix for extended playing time on the OL this Sunday.
Last year’s second half meltdown filled with ugly late season losses exposed a leadership void in the Giants locker room. They laid down and quit early when trailing in each of their last two ballgames. And the G-men are now 3-9 SU and ATS since their 6-2 start to the season last year. Six of their last eight losses have come by 18 points or more; non-competitive efforts.
Last week, the Giants pulled out all the stops to compete at KC. Here are some pre-game quotes from prior to that contest. Victor Cruz: “I think the better Giants team is going to show up this week. I think it’s a different mindset. I think this is where we turn the page and kind of make a good run and get a couple of wins under our belt.”
Locker room leader Antrel Rolle: “We put ourselves in this situation. Not anyone else. I’ve been out there Sunday when it’s been going down. At the same time, we’re not worried about what has taken place. There is nothing we can do, no matter how hard we try, no matter how hard we pray, no matter how many times we blink our eyes, nothing is going to take back that 0-3 start. It is what it is. But we can control what happens this day going forward.”
So to see the Giants lay another complete egg in that ballgame tells us very clearly that this is not a team that should be favored. It’s not like this homefield is particularly strong; and it’s not like Philadelphia has a similar ‘we’re done’ mindset, sitting just a game out of first place.
Art Aronson
Detroit vs. Green Bay
Pick: Green Bay
The visiting Detroit Lions sit at 3-1 SU and ATS after a 42-30 win over the Chicago Bears in Week 4. Matt Stafford went 23-for-35 for 242 yards one TD and INT. Reggie Bush had a season-high 139 yards rushing and a score on 18 carries for one TD score. The Lions scored 24 straight points, including three TDs in a span of 3 minutes, 26 seconds. The Lions defense forced four fumbles. The Green Bay Packers sit at a disappointing 1-2 and is coming off a bye week. The Packers allowed the Bengals to come from behind in the four quarter in a 30-34 loss. Aaron Rodgers and the usually sure handed offense coughed up the ball four times in this game with Rodgers throwing two INTs to his only one TD. While the Lions are coming in strong off another win I like the fact we are getting a desperate Green Bay team off a bye week. The Packers are 2-1 ATS coming off a bye week the past three seasons. The Pack has also been downright dominant against divisional opponents of late, going a healthy 11-2 ATS. Green Bay in friendly confines has been a spread covering machine of late going 14-5 ATS. The Lions are just 5-8 ATS versus the division. Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 ATS versus Green Bay the last three seasons. Green Bay was nursing a few injuries and should be well rested after the extra week off. Don’t over think this one and lay the points with the home team.
Will Rogers
Philadelphia vs. N.Y. Giants
Pick: Over
Here are my keys to the game.
1. Two Horrible Defenses - In terms of points allowed, these are the two worst defenses in the entire league. The Giants are the worst, allowing an average of 36.5 points/game through the first four weeks. The Eagles aren't far behind, allowing 34.5 points/game, and they were just torched for 52 by Denver last week. The fewest points the Giants have allowed in a game this year is 31. For the Eagles, the number is 26. Therefore, both teams would have to establish season lows in points allowed, or one by a significant margin, to keep this game from going Over.
2. Philadelphia Offense - People are beginning to turn on Chip Kelly's offense en masse, but this is still a unit that is putting up good numbers (24.7 pts/game) and entered last week #1 in the NFL in rushing yards by a wide margin. Because they fell behind Peyton Manning and the Broncos early last week, it was difficult to get into a rhythm. They should not face the same issue this week.
3. X-Factor - Going into last week, Tom Coughlin was 13-1 Over in his NFL coaching career if his team had scored nine points or less the previous game.
Marc Lawrence
Seattle vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Indianapolis
When the Seahawks stormed back to nip Houston in overtime despite being outgained by over 200 yards in the contest, they became 4-0 for the first time in franchise history. Meanwhile, even though Seattle owns the league’s 6th best defense, they have allowed season-high yards to opponents in each of their last two games. And despite the 4-0 start, Russell Wilson has thrown for only 91 and 118 yards in two of his last three games. Wilson’s home-road dichotomy is vast as well: he averages 32 PPG in Seattle but less than 17 PPG away from home during the regular season. Then there are the Colts, improved this season and 8-1 ATS in games off back-to-back SUATS wins when facing an opponent off a pair of wins. Toss in the fact that non-rested 4-0 SUATS favorites in Game Five are just 4-9-1 ATS since 1990 and we'll fade a Seattle squad playing its second-straight 1:00 PM ET (10 AM body-clock) game in as many weeks. We recommend a 1-unit play on Indianapolis.
Rob Vinciletti
Philadelphia Eagles vs. NY Giants
Play: NY Giants
Many have wondered what has gone wrong for the Giants as they have been blasted losing by nearly 3 touch downs on a weekly basis. Their problems appear to be in the trenches as they cant get to the opposing Qb or protect their own. Today however we note that Divisional home teams that have started the season 0-4 have bounced back to cover nearly 90% of the time long term. The Eagles have lost 3 straight after winning their opener. The Eagles are 2-7 vs losing teams and 2-6 in weeks 5-9. The Giants are 7-2 in weeks 5-9 and have won 4 of 5 as a home favorite of 3 or less. The last time these two met here last December the Giants grounded the Eagles 42-7. While it should be much closer in this game. We will back the Giants here to get their first win.
Joseph D'Amico
New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: New England Patriots
New England has a 4-1 record, covering their L2 games and seem to be improving with each passing week. Tom Brady is, according to critics "lucky". The bottom line is that the Patriots have a commitment to winning. Their defense is yielding just 14.2 PPG. The team just brought in wide out, Austin Collie to help out Brady while Julian Edelman is tied for tops in the League with 34 receptions. Cincy blew an 11-point lead in Week 1 to Chicago, then came back and beat both Pittsburgh and Green Bay (two teams in transition), then managed just a pair of FGs in LWs loss to Cleveland. QB, Andy Dalton has just 5 TDs and 4 INTs and hasn't connected for big yardage with AJ Green since Week 1. The WR has just 138 receiving yards over the L3 games. The ground game is non-existent, averaging 83.8 YPG. The Cincinnati front-7 is way overrated. The Patriots are 15-7 ATS their L22 games played on the road, 8-1 ATS their L9 games played in Week 5, and 21-7-1 ATS their L29 games played in the month of October. The Bengals are 2-7-1 ATS their L9 games played against teams with a winning record, 3-7-3 ATS their L13 games played following a SU loss, and 8-20-1 ATS their L29 games played in the month of October. Take New England.
Dave Price
Green Bay Packers -7
Motivated by a 1-2 start, having had a bye week to prepare and back at Lambeau, I expect Green Bay to take care of business against a team it has owned. The Packers have won 22 in a row at home against the Lions by an average score of 28-16. They have gone an impressive 15-5-2 ATS in these games. The Packers are an explosive 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week. They have also won their last nine at home by an average of 14.8 points with all but one of these victories coming by at least seven points. Aaron Rodgers has been a major thorn in the side of the Lions. The Packers are 8-1 against Detroit with Rodgers starting, with the lone loss coming in a game he was knocked out of Dec. 12, 2010. The Lions have struggled against quality passing teams that have a completion rate of 64.0 percent or higher. They are 1-10 ATS versus such teams going back to 2011 and have lost to these sides by an average of 7.5 points. Green Bay has the edge. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
49ers -5
Last week's 35-11 win over St. Louis on Thursday was just what the doctor ordered for the 49ers. Now the reigning NFC Champs are beaming with confidence and have had three extra days to prepare for a struggling Houston team that has lost two in a row and is 0-4 ATS on the season. The Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games going back to last season, and they are 3-11 ATS lifetime under coach Kubiak in road games off a home loss. They have lost by an average of 11.0 points in this spot. The 49ers are an impressive 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 home games. Bet the Niners.
Alex Smart
Denver vs. Dallas
Play: Over 56
The Boyz come into this home tilt having averaged 32 ppg at home in their L/6 dating back to last season. Denver their opponents own the leagues most explosive offense averaging 45 ppg on 483 yards per game. Dallas has gone over in 20 of their L/28 home tilts. Im betting this one goes over the number to.
Justin Bay
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs defense was ranked #3 in the league after Week 3 which shows why the team has shown the success this year. Alex Smith has been a surprise for most of the public this season and it looks like he will have good success all season under Andy Reid if he can stay away from injuries. The Chiefs are 4-0 SU this season along with 3-1 ATS.
The Titans have been a huge surprise this year, but this success might come to a hault after losing QB Jake Locker last week to a hip injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick will have the fans all over him if he can not pick up where Locker left off and we all know from watching Fitzpatrick in the past, he does not deal with the pressure too well. The one thing the Titans have going for them is their offensive line after adding RG Chance Warmack and LG Andy Levitre which should help out Fitzpatrick.
The Titans are going to be outmatched in this game against the Chiefs. Kansas City's defense should be able to limit the rushing attack of Chris Johnson which will lead to Ryan Fitzpatrick trying to move the chains through the air. Look for the Chiefs to go into Week 6 5-0 on the season and 4-1 ATS.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers
.
Detroit has allowed 25.2 PPG, allowing 32 points against the Bears last week. Their offense has averaged 23 PPG, but on the road they only averaged 20.5 PPG. The Lions are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meeting with the Packers.
Packers are coming off a loss in Cincinnati that has to have the team very frustrated. Green Bay will be coming off a bye week looking to take advantage of a very mediocre Lions' defense. They are 16-5 ATS following their last 21 defeats.
Bill Biles
Jaguars/Rams Under 41.5
I see both teams running the ball a lot in this one. I think it will be a low scoring close game. I think The jaguars will play better than they have and keep the Rams under 20 points, and I also see the Jaguars running the ball effectively, but the pass rush of the Rams causing them fits. I see alot of punting and field goals in this one.
Jim Feist
Patriots vs Bengals
Pick: Under
Your free play for Sunday is a total in the AFC. A pair of strong AFC defensive teams meet and the weather won't help the offenses: 90% chance of rain along with 16 MPH winds in Cincinnati. The Patriots defense has been a big surprise, 17th against the pass, 14th against the run, 3-1 under the total. It's the offense that has been badly banged up. TE Rob Gronkowski is back at practice but won't play, WR Danny Amendola (chest injury) is not 100% and RB Stephen Ridley is out. The under is 5-1 in the Patriots last 6 vs. the AFC. They take on a great Bengals defense that has been ranked 6th and 7th in the NFL in total defense the last two years and is playing well again. The Cincy offense is conservative under OC Jay Gruden, off a 17-6 loss to Cleveland. The under is 8-0 in the Bengals last 8 against the AFC and 5-1 under the total in the Bengals last six home games.
AC Dinero
Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys
The Broncos are off to a very hot start. As a result, their lines have become inflated. This line should be 4.5 or 5, but the way they score points, it has jumped and may end up at 10 by game time. The Cowboys have gotten off to a so-so start. But with the state of the NFC East, so-so will be good enough to win that division. Dallas doesn't beat themselves with mistakes and has been very good getting off the filed on 3rd down at 33%. One thing the Denver offense has done is cover up it's iffy secondary, which is giving up 7.3 ypa. The Broncos can't possibly keep up this pace, and if history is any indication, it will slow down on the road and out of conference. How convenient, that is what we have here. Take the home dog in this one.
Sean Higgs
Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers
The Sunday Night (early) NFL Game of the Week is a pretty big match-up. We have the Super Bowl runner-ups at home, versus the Texans who people think have Super Bowl talent. Let’s get right to it.
So the Texans, in my eyes, have gone from a team that I thought would contend with Denver and the Bengals to be the top dogs in the AFC. Now after back to back losses, their season can very well be on the ropes because the Colts seem to be a legit playoff team showing no signs of a sophomore slump. Let’s start with the Texans QB play. Or should I say lack of, or even bone-head play of Matt Schaub. The guy cost this team a win last week. No bones about it. It won’t get any easier against another physical defense, this time on the road. It seems to me that every time Houston has to step in play against good teams, they fall flat on their faces. They gave up nearly 100 yards at home to Lynch on the ground. What is Gore going to do to these guys?
San Francisco has had their share of problems this year no doubt. You aren’t going to get any arguments from me. The defense hasn’t been as tough. The offense looks spotty at times. This line looks a little high at first glance. But they we peel away the layers. This SF team has been getting better every year. They are tough at home going 16-7-1 ATS last 24 here. Texans are 0-5 ATS their last 5 on the road.
San Francisco also has the advantage of extra time to prepare for this game. They rolled over the Rams last Thursday night and are nice and rested for this prime time affair. I am sure that they watched how Seattle came back on these guys on the road, and will exploit everything that went wrong for the Texans there. San Fran is 2-2 and now have 2 home games here. Next up is Arizona. They now they need to win every game, especially here vs a team that their division rivals have already notched a W up against.
My Final Thoughts
I am going with SAN FRANCISCO here minus the touchdown. I think this line is right on target. The Texans are notorious for falling flat in big-games. The Niners have extra rest and prep time following an offensive and defense gem on the road. I am sure they will be ready for this huge game. And make no mistake. This is a very big game for both of these teams. I just believe that you pick the winner. And SF at home with this coach has been a winning recipe.
Harry Bondi
Eagles / Giants Over 54
In a game that pits two of the worst defenses in the league, we’ll go over the big number. The G-Men have allowed an average of 36.5 points per game and have had problems with mobile QBs, while the Eagles defense is showing the wear and tear of having to be on the field so much, due to a quick-strike offense and is allowing 34.5 points per game. The Eagles are 3-1 to the over this season and we expect that trend to continue today. It's a shootout in the Meadowlands.