Steve Merril
Kansas City at Tennessee
Play: Tennessee
Kansas City (4-0) has looked impressive on the scoreboard, but a deeper investigation reveals some major flaws being masked by their wins. The Chiefs have had offensive issues this season as they are only averaging 6.2 yards per pass attempt (#24 in the league) and converting just 38.7% on third downs. They also have a negative rushing differential of -3.3 yards per game. It's important to note that those numbers have come against teams with a combined record of 3-13 on the season. If Kansas City was a dominating team like their win/loss record suggests, they would have a much better statistical profile on offense because of the weak competition they've played. The Chiefs are not as invincible as they seem.
Tennessee lost starting QB Jake Locker to a hip injury during their game last week against the Jets. Fortunately for the Titans, they have a veteran backup in Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Titans have been able to move the chains consistently this season because they are converting 41.3% of their third downs. The Titans defense is allowing just 17.2 points per game while holding opponents to only 313 yards of total offense per game. Tennessee is giving up 5.1 yards per play and 6.2 yards per pass attempt; both of those numbers are solid. Kansas City is not in a good scheduling spot as this will be their third road game in five weeks with their first divisional game on deck. We have Kansas City rated one spot higher than Tennessee in our power ratings, but when we adjust for home field advantage, the Titans should be favored by 2 points. That gives us some good value on the home underdog in this game, especially if we can take them at the key number of 3. We see a good opportunity to fade the overrated Chiefs, so we'll take the Titans in this game on Sunday afternoon.
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS +8½ over Denver
Pinnacle has the Broncos -7½ +108, BET365 has them -7 -120 while SportsInteraction and Betfair (fixed odds) both have Denver -8½ -110. It once again shows the importance of having multiple books at your disposal to get the best line available.
We’re not going to tell you anything about the Broncos that you don’t already know. Denver is a freight train right now that is destroying everything in its path, including anyone that bets against them. Denver is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. They’ve scored 37 points or more in all of their games and Peyton Manning is on a pace that will see him shatter every QB record in the books for a single season. However, Denver has played Baltimore, the Giants, Oakland and Philadelphia. All four of those teams look like trash and that’s because they are trash. Denver won 52-20 over Philadelphia last week but did you see Philly moving the ball at will the entire game? We sure did. How about Oakland, who scored 14 points (one TD off a blocked punt) last week at home to Washington and couldn’t move five yards the rest of the game. They scored 21 on the Broncos. The Giants, who have one TD and 7 points in the past two weeks, rolled up 23 points on Denver. That was two weeks ago, where the Broncos were a -3½ point choice at New York and now they’re a 8½-point choice in Dallas? Are you kidding? If you bet the Broncos here, you may win but you are paying the highest premium that we’ve ever seen in an NFL game after four weeks of action. Denver is not invincible. Its defense is pure garbage but its shortcomings have been masked by the Broncos offense racking up 50 points a game.
After a feel good, blowout win over the Rams, the Cowboys left to lose their second road game and now have to go against the Broncos. The NFC East still has no winning records and at current rate may not at the end of the year. As with most seasons, the Cowboys are still taking a step forward and then another one back but this is a good football team that has racked up some pretty sweet numbers of their own when playing at home. In two home games so far, Dallas has racked up 36 and 31 points respectively while building a 17-point lead or more in both games. Tony Romo and his weapons figure to rack up yards and points against this defense as well and keep this one well within this range. Indeed the Broncos offense is great but this is a ludicrous price to spot on the road with a team that has yet to play a quality opponent and that is allowing a ton of yardage against.
CINCINNATI -1 over New England
The Patriots are coming off a Sunday night, prime time victory in Atlanta. The Bengals are coming off a 17-6 loss in Cleveland and that sets this one up as a true, buy-low, sell-high opportunity. Those Sunday and Monday night winners often have much appeal the following week and that applies especially for very popular teams like the Patriots. A lot of folks expected that New England would finally fall to Atlanta and those same folks are going to be very hesitant to fade the Pats this week. After all, nobody likes to wager against Tom Brady or Bill Belichick. We don’t like to either but when we see a favorable number in a good spot, we’re more than happy to wager against anyone. New England has three close wins over the Jets, Bills and Falcons and one 20-point win over the Bucs. Combined, that quartet has five wins in 17 games. New England is a comfortable 4-0 and they have a game on deck against New Orleans next week in Foxboro.
The Bengals stock dropped with their loss in Cleveland last week but let’s not forget that defeat came a week after a hugely emotional home victory over the Green Bay Packers. In that game, Cinci trailed 30-16 before putting together a furious rally to knock off the Pack, 34-30. They were emotionally and physically spent last week in Cleveland. The Bengals are 2-2 but could easily be 3-1 after outplaying the Bears in Chicago on opening day but eventually losing by a FG. Cincinnati is a quality football team that is both balanced and capable of defeating any team on any given Sunday. After a mulligan last week that followed three very emotional games (Chicago in the opener, Steelers on Monday Night Football and Green Bay prior to last week), expect Cincinnati to be back focused and raring to go here against a team they can and probably will defeat. In summarizing, we get a quality football team at home in a much more favorable spot than the visitor in a buy-low, sell-high opportunity. That’s precisely the right time to step in.
TENNESSEE +117 over Kansas City
There is no such thing as easy. A big part of wagering on the NFL is being able to sniff out a “trap game” and this one reeks of such. The entire betting world is endorsing the Chiefs and it’s hard to make an argument against that. When you read about this game, you are going to read about the Chiefs outstanding defense and how it’s going to be very difficult for Ryan Fitzpatrick to step into this situation and have any success. What you’re not going to read about is that K.C.’s offense is brutal. That this Chiefs’ team is 4-0 is a miracle onto itself because Alex Smith has managed to do two things by himself that not many other QB’s could accomplish. Smith has completely killed the long ball and has made Dwayne Bowe invisible. You’re also not going to read how Kansas City’s starting field position average has been better than anyone else in the game, yet no team that doesn’t start with the letter J, has had more three and outs than the Chiefs. This is a bad offense with a defense that ranks about the same as the Jets. Luck plays a big factor in the outcome of football games and no team has been luckier than Kansas City. This is not a 4-0 football team and they will be exposed as such very, very shortly.
Yeah, we know that Jake Locker is out. Every pundit that picks the Chiefs will point that out among other things to support their choice. Gee, we wonder if the oddsmakers got that memo. Forget injuries, especially key ones, as they are factored into the number and it’s why you rarely see us mentioning them. Besides, who the f**k is Jake Locker anyway! Instead of writing about Jake Locker, we should just put up some .gifs of him pissing away games the Titans should have won a year ago. Ryan Fitzpatrick is more than capable of putting up the same or better numbers than Locker. Furthermore, this Tennessee offense scored 38 points last week on the Jets and they also scored 24 on the Texans. Tennessee is 3-1. They’ve held the Steelers, Chargers and Jets to a combined 39 points and their defense is every bit as good or better than K.C.’s. The Titans offense is also the superior bunch here and they’re at home. It says here that K.C. is the sucker play of the day because this visitor is so overvalued, it’s sick. The oddsmakers know it, we know it and you should be glad you’re reading this because now you know it too. Titans outright.
Betting As A Business
New England / Cincinnati Under 46
The Patriots are slowly becoming a different team. Although they have one of the best QB's the game has ever seen, without receivers Tom Brady's main skill set is reduced to mediocrity. But don't count out New England, they are 4-0 aren't they? Only problem is a couple of those wins were very close. A 2 point win over the Bills on a last second FG to open the season and the next week a 3 point win over the rival Jets. But the Brady - Belichick combo is about as solid a coach - QB relationship can be. What's happening here is the ground level of a new way for the Pats to play the game... the way the game was meant to be played. A slow, grind it out style with much attention to field position. The public is still sold on Tom Brady the passing guru, but meanwhile 3 of their first 4 games have gone Under the total by an average of 13 ppg. Until last week in Atlanta (30-23 Final... barely over 49). The value lies in situations like these. Catching a team in transition before the line maker adjusts. We know we're getting the best of it in this line as 46 is a hefty number.
Bruce Marshall
Seattle vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Seattle
The last time Andrew Luck faced Pete Carroll, Luck’s Stanford team put 55 points on Carroll’s pre-Lane Kiffin USC in 2009. Don’t think the Seahawks’ coach has forgotten (ask Jim Harbaugh). More importantly, Pete now has the “D” to do something about it, and his stop unit can go on the offensive if needed as CB Richard Sherman (a college teammate of Luck) proved with late game-tying pick. TD at Houston last week. Respect Chuck Pagano, Luck and Indy’s 4-0 Lucas Oil dog mark since last season, but reluctant to buck chemistry-rich Seattle bunch on non-stop ascent (10-1 SU and vs. line last 11 since late 2012).
Sean Murphy
New Orleans vs. Chicago
Pick: Under
This one certainly appears to have all the makings of a shootout, but I'm not sure that's what will develop at Soldier Field on Sunday.
The Saints defense continues to be an undervalued commodity, even after strutting its stuff in front of the ESPN cameras on Monday Night Football. Through four games, the Saints have yet to allow more than 17 points and while this looks like their toughest test to date, I'm confident they'll be up for the challenge.
Keep in mind, the Bears offense is in for a letdown after scoring over 30 points in three consecutive games.
Defensively, Chicago knows that it needs to get better. It has allowed over 20 points in all four games, and at least 30 points on two different occasions, including last Sunday, when it gave up a whopping 40 points against Detroit. Of course, seven of those points came at the expense of the offense on a fumble recovery, so all of the negativity can't be pinned on the defense. In fact, Chicago actually held Detroit to only 387 total yards in that contest.
Regardless, this is a defense that should play with a big chip on its shoulder on Sunday afternoon.
I should point out that while the Saints offense has been humming along, it has also had the benefit of playing three of its four games at home. In its lone road tilt, it produced only 16 points in a narrow win over the lowly Bucs. The conditions should be tougher in the Windy City on Sunday, with wet weather expected.
The last time these two teams hooked up they combined to score only 41 points back in September of 2011, and that game was played in ideal conditions inside the Superdome. We're looking at a considerably higher total this time around, but I'm not sure its warranted.
Larry Ness
Denver vs. Dallas
Pick: Dallas
You may just be aware that Peyton Manning is off the best start of his career, as the Broncos visit “Jerry’s House" in Arlington late this afternoon. He leads the league in completions (117), completion percentage (75.0), yards (1,470), touchdowns (16) and passer rating (138.0) while not throwing an interception. If he were to keep up this pace, he’d throw for 5,880 yards with 64 TD passes! I’m taking “the under” on both props. The Broncos are averaging league-bests of 44.8 PPG and 483.0 YPG and the team's 52-20 Week 4 win over Philadelphia gave them a team-record 15th straight in the regular season
Quite amazingly, all 15 wins have come by seven points or more (11-3-1 ATS), leaving Denver one seven-point win shy of the all-time NFL record, set by the old “Monsters of the Midway,” the 1941-42 Chicago Bears. It’s hard to find fault with Denver but it’s not like the team has been ‘laying waste’ to a murderer’s row-like set of teams so far in 2013. The Broncos opened with a HUGE revenge game against the Ravens in the season’s first game and since then, have beaten the Giants, Raiders and Eagles, three teams with a a combined record of 2-10.
Now my point isn’t that Denver is overrated, it’s just that we all should hold off on that 19-0 season prediction for a little while. The last time Peyton faced the Cowboys (while with the Colts), he went 36 of 48 for 365 yards and two TDs, but also threw four INTs in Indianapolis' 38-35 overtime loss December 5, 2010. Dallas is hoping it can have that kind of success against Manning this time around as well but one wonders if that’s possible, considering this defense just allowed 506 yards and 20 unanswered points in a 30-21 loss to San Diego this past Sunday.
The Cowboys gave up 401 yards and three TDs through the air and are tied with Minnesota and the New York Giants for worst in the league with 10 TD passes allowed. They rank 27th in the league in pass defense at 304.5 YPG. I think it’s safe to say the Cowboys will have to win a “shootout!” Tony Romo may just be up to the challenge. He’s thrown eight TDs against just one interception, while ranking fourth with a 105.0 passer rating. He's completed 72.4 percent of his passes (his career best in a full season is 66.3 percent in 2011) and over his last five home games, has completed 70.8% for 1,533 yards wih 14 TDs and just one INT.
A “shootout” it is and I’m taking the home dog.
Kyle Hunter
Chargers vs. Raiders
Play: Over 45
The San Diego Chargers offense is going to put up big yards against a lot of teams this year. Phillip Rivers has a much better rhythm with his wide receivers and Antonio Gates this year. Oakland's secondary is nothing special, and the Chargers should get quite a few yards here. Terrelle Pryor makes this Oakland offense a difficult one to game plan for. The Chargers defense is definitely one of the worst in the league. I think both offenses put on a show here in their late night showcase game. Take the over.
Jack Jones
Detroit Lions +7.5
These aren’t the 4-12 Lions from a year ago that lost nine games by a touchdown or less. These are the Lions that made the playoffs two seasons ago and finished with double-digit victories. Detroit is off to a 3-1 start this season, taking care of business with two of those victories coming against teams that made the playoffs last season in Minnesota and Washington. It also pulled off an impressive 40-32 victory over Chicago last week in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.
The addition of Reggie Bush has turned this Detroit offense into a real juggernaut. The Lions are averaging 30.5 points and 404.7 total yards per game to rank 6th in the league in total offense. Matthew Stafford is completing 64.1 percent of his passes for 1,262 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Bush has 254 rushing yards and a touchdown as well as 11 receptions for 179 yards and a score already this season despite missing one game due to injury. He has been everything the Lions had envisioned and more.
Stafford, Bush and company should have their way with a Green Bay defense that has taken a huge step back in 2013. The Packers rank a woeful 27th in scoring defense and 28th in total defense, giving up averages of 29.3 points and 404.3 total yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 68.2 percent of their passes for an average of 311.0 yards per game, which puts Green Bay at 28th in the NFL against the pass. Stafford will be licking his chops at the opportunity to go up against this defense.
Detroit has played Green Bay much tougher over the last three years despite its poor overall record over the past decade in this series. In fact, five of the last six meetings between the Lions and Packers have been decided by 7 points or less. The Lions haven’t lost by more than 7 points in any of their last three visits to Lambeau Field. It appears oddsmakers have overcompensated in this one when you consider the closely-contested nature of this series in recent years.
Most people believe that the Packers will be the more motivated team after a 1-2 start and off a bye. I beg to differ. The Lions have lost 14 of the last 15 meetings in this NFC North rivalry, and they'll be the more motivated team because of it. They are tired of coming so close to beating the Packers over the last three seasons, and it's time for them to get over the hump with the best team they have had in a long time in 2013. If they want to win the division, they know a win Sunday would go a long ways in accomplishing that feat. Bet the Lions Sunday.
Doug Upstone
Panthers vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 42½
On Sunday Play UNDER on home teams like Arizona against the total, averaging 14-18 points a game, against an excellent defensive team (Carolina) who is conceding fewer than 14 points a contest, after scoring seven points or less in the first half of two straight games. This NFL system is 25-5, 83.3 percent and the average total score is 35.9 points.
Don Best Consensus
Chargers vs Raiders
Pick: Over
San Diego (2-2) at Oakland (1-3) The Chargers are two plays away from 4-0, losing on the final play in the opener vs Houston and to the Titans on a hail mary. Now, they play their first divisional game of the season against Oakland. The game kicks off at 8:35 PT due to the Oakland Athletics playoff games going on in the same stadium. Both teams have shown great improvement on offense, with P.Rivers returning to pro-bowl form and T.Pryor looking sharp in his first few starts. (Pryor missed week 4 due to concussion) Neither team runs the ball very well, and it should be a pass-happy night (D.McFadden OUT for OAK). San Diego's secondary ranks near the bottom of the league. Over is 39-16-4 in SD last 59 road games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta +136 over LOS ANGELES
Close series shifts to L.A. after the Dodgers accomplished what every playoff team sets out to do in the first two road games. That is getting a split. Now the Braves need to win two out of three at Chavez Ravine and this is their best opportunity to do so. It seemed like Hyun-Jin Ryu had the deck stacked against him as he entered 2013. Ryu was an MLB rookie pitcher from the Far East without Yu Darvish’s stuff or fanfare and there were questions about the level of competition in the Korean League he came from. With a 14-8 record and an ERA of 3.00, it’s obvious he belongs. Ryu has gotten a bit of help from a mildly fortunate 77% strand rate but there are no alarms from his ERA/xERA gap. The 26-year-old southpaw has been amazingly steady and looks like a potential mid-rotation mainstay behind the Kershaw/Greinke duo for the next several years. However, in Ryu’s final seven starts of the year, the Dodgers went 2-5 in those games with one of those losses occurring against the Marlins. Ryu has also been off for a full week and that’s never a good thing for a rookie pitcher and lastly, the Braves 25-16 record against lefties was the highest winning percentage in the NL and second highest in the majors behind the Indians.
Outside of Michael Young, who is not likely to be starting anyway, no other Dodger has faced Julio Teheran before and that’s an edge that goes to the pitcher (see Sonny Gray last night). Teheran only took the mound four times in September in order to preserve his arm for the playoffs. During the month, he went 3-1 with a 22/3 K/BB ratio in 24.1 innings. Tehran set a Braves rookie record (since 1900) with 170 strikeouts and will face a Dodgers squad that posted a middle-of-the-pack 19.4 percent K-rate following the All-Star break. Teheran posted some of the best skills in the NL when pitching at home with an elite 2.71 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He has a nice 3.25 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road and this is precisely the type of park he can thrive in. Of course, Teheran is a rookie too but he had the exact same W/L record (14-8) as Ryu, his ERA was only 0.20 higher than Ryu’s and he’s not the one spotting -145. With a total of 6½ and the bullpens figuring to have an impact on the outcome, one has to like the Braves chances equally as much as the Dodgers and that’s why taking back this tag on the Braves is the prudent choice.
SPORTS WAGERS
CAROLINA -½ +137 over Philadelphia
Regulation. Those Vegas oddsmakers are pretty damn sharp. Vegas listed Flyers coach Peter Laviolette the odds on favorite at 2-1 to be the first coach fired this season. After two games, Philadelphia is 0-2 and has been outscored 7-2. Now what? Ray Emery is 0-1 and didn’t look sharp. Steve Mason is 0-1 and looked worse, allowing three goals on just 25 shots against the Maple Leafs. It’s just two games in but the Flyers have not been able to score an important goal yet and that starts to play on the collective minds of the players. Up 1-0 against the Maple Leafs and taking the play to them for the first 30 minutes, the Flyers could not find that second goal. Down 1-0 against Montreal last night for a stretch of 32 minutes, Philadelphia could not break the ice and the Canadiens scored 12 seconds into the third period to take a 2-0 lead and five minutes later it was 3-0. An 0-2 record is not a big deal but these Flyers appear to be a team in serious peril. Key players are getting less minutes, nobody is scoring, the goaltending and defense is still weak and now they’ll play the tail end of back-to-backs.
We were concerned about the Hurricanes defense to begin the year and wanted to see them play before endorsing them. Carolina lost 3-2 in OT to the Red Wings in its opener and its defense, just as we suspected, was often running around in its own end. However, Cam Ward was brilliant and if he plays up to his capabilities, like he did in the opener, and the defense improves with each game, Carolina is going to kill it this year. They boast one of the best top-sixes in the league, sprinkled with the right amount of grit and flash. The Staals are absolute beasts to play against, both owning a rare mix of size and skill. Jeff Skinner already has a 30-goal season on his resume and if healthy, he’s a true all-star. Alexander Semin is one of the most pure offensive talents in the league, so much so that when he was in Washington people called him “the most talented player on the team”. Tuomo Ruutu has averaged 20 goals a year over his past four full seasons. They’ve even got a cupboard full of bright young stars that could step in and surprise and as mentioned earlier, that’s all in front of one of the best goaltenders in the league. Their D will improve with solid and reliable guys like Andrej Sekera and Jay Harrison. The ‘Canes even sport a bright young star in D Justin Faulk (with Ryan Murphy not too far away either). This team could potentially be a beast to play and here’s the kicker: Carolina hasn’t defeated the Flyers since November of 2011. They’ve lost four in a row to Philly and six of the past seven. Carolina couldn’t have asked for a better time to change its fortunes and get this proverbial monkey off its back. Huge edge in net, huge edge up front, huge edge mentally and playing at home says the ‘Canes deliver the goods here.
Mike O'Connor
New England (-1.5) 25 CINCINNATI 19
The Patriots have been resilient this season as they have dealt with the Aaron Hernandez situation, injuries to Rob Gronkowski and WR Danny Amendola and now have another big setback losing DT Vince Wilfork last week against the Falcons. Amazingly, they are 4-0 as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have held things together. Season numbers indicate that the Patriots are about average offensively as both adjusted YPPL and adjusted scoring metrics have shown. On the defensive side of the ball, they have been improved this year so far allowing just 14 points to a schedule of teams that score around 18 while holding teams to just below their average from a YPPL perspective. However, New England has made plays when they need them as they are 5th in my adjusted defensive yards per point metric. The Bengals meanwhile have not been overly impressive, and while they have talent they are lacking at the important QB and coach combination. Based on my adjusted passing numbers I have Andy Dalton rated as the 24th ranked QB and as a whole this unit is below average offensively. Their defense has played well so far but is shorthanded in the secondary once again this week due to injuries and face Tom Brady who is certainly qualified to exploit the lack of cohesion. Season numbers show value on the Patriots who also qualify in a 107-51-3 situation and have some very good matchup advantages, especially with the possible return of WR Danny Amendola. I like the Patriots.
MIAMI (-2.5 -115) 23 Baltimore 20
The Ravens had a tough time last week attacking the Bills injury weakened secondary as Joe Flacco was intercepted 5 times and sacked 4 times. They could not rush the ball at all, gaining just 24 yards and 2.7 yards per carry and that is consistent with their overall offensive rushing numbers as they average 2.8 yards per carry against teams that give up 3.7 YPC. They have not been much better passing the ball, averaging 5.6 YPS for overall offensive numbers that are not good. They hope to improve the play of their offensive line with the recent addition of LT Eugene Monroe, who was the Jags best lineman. The Dolphins, who went into Monday night undefeated, were exposed in what was a very good spot for the Saints, losing 38-17. Overall adjusted numbers show that they are just above average offensively, particularly passing the ball, and just below average defensively. With no situations that apply to this game, my numbers show a slight advantage to the Dolphins and I will lean that way.
New Orleans (-1) 27 CHICAGO 24
The Saints come off of an impressive Monday night 38-17 home victory over the Dolphins where their passing offense couldn’t be stopped and defensively they held the Dolphins to 332 yards at 5.8 YPPL. Overall season numbers are very good for the Saints passing the ball and defending the pass but they have been terrible defending the run as they have allowed 5.6 YPC to teams that rush for 4.0 YPC. The Bears come off of a loss to division rival Detroit in a game where they trailed 40-16 in the fourth quarter before scoring late to make the final score and stats appear closer than the actual difference. There is a lot of talk about the Bears improvement this year but overall adjusted season numbers show this to be a below average team both offensively and defensively. This should be an interesting game as it offers unique matchup advantages for both sides and situations that go both ways (I have three situations that play on the Bears but also a strong situation that favors the Saints here.) Jay Cutler led teams have not been very good at home going just 20-31-2 ATS while Drew Brees led teams have kept their focus in these spots going 67-49-2 ATS against non-division competition. I lean with the Saints minus the short number.
Carolina (-1.5) 21 ARIZONA 19
The Panthers come into this game off of a bye and a satisfying 38-0 blowout win against the Giants two weeks ago after starting the season 0-2. They travel here to face a Cardinals team that was unimpressive in beating Tampa Bay last week behind two late turnovers from rookie QB Mike Glennon who was making his first career start. This was a defensive showdown with neither team being able to do much offensively and turnovers and penalties being the order of the day. In their three games so far this year the Panthers have been good overall defensively but not very good in aggregate on offense, although they did show well in their most recent game against the Giants. Their efficiency numbers have been good and that explains some of the success that they have had so far this year but is not very indicative of their future performance this early in the season. The Cardinals have a bad offensive line and just traded away their starting left tackle Levi Brown who was not very good and will go with second year player Bradley Sowell. Adjusted numbers show the Cardinals to have a terrible rushing attack, a slightly below average passing game and a pretty good defense. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game and no real strong opinion either way so I will go the direction of my model line which has the Panthers by about two points. My total on this game is right around 40 so I do see some value in the Under here.
Denver (-7) 31 DALLAS 23
The Broncos are the talk of the league right now and justifiably so as they are 4-0 and winning by an average of 22 points per game. Their offense has been unstoppable in rolling up 486 yards at 7 YPPL while their defense has shut down the oppositions rushing attack in allowing 3.3 YPC to teams that average 4.5 YPC. The weapons that Manning has at his disposal are outstanding and he is setting them up to be in the best position possible for success with the adjustments and audibles that he makes. Slowing down this offense right now is a difficult task for any team and for the Cowboys right now it might be next to impossible. The Cowboys defense was shredded by Philip Rivers last week and on the season they are giving up 304 defensive passing yards per game at 6.7 YPS to teams that average 260 at 6.2 YPS. What is worse in this matchup is that Payton Manning played against this Monte Kiffen style Tampa 2 defense for years every day in practice while he was with the Colts as Tony Dungy ran a very similar scheme. I have several situations that play on the Cowboys here but individual adjusted numbers and overall model line supports the Broncos. I will pass here with a lean to Denver.
Houston (+5) 21 SAN FRANCISCO 22
The Texans were the better team last Sunday against the Seahawks for most of the game before a boneheaded decision by Matt Schaub to throw under pressure into tight coverage in the flat tied the game via a pick-six. This was his third consecutive game with a pick-six and while he seemed to be able to bounce back from the previous two, after this one he looked completely shaken and was not able to get anything going. The Texans dominated statistically with 476 yards at 5.4 YPPL compared to the Seahawks 271 at 4.8 YPPL but lost the all-important turnover battle 3-2 and couldn’t stop Seattle from making key plays when they needed them. Season numbers show the Texans as an average offensive team with a very good defense (allowing 4.4 YPPL to teams that gain 5.4 YPPL). The 49ers are coming off of a 35-11 Thursday night beatdown of the Rams where they got their ground game really going, rushing for 219 yards at 5.5 YPC and completely shutting down the Rams offense (192 yards at 3.1 YPPL). With a similar overall statistical profile to the Texans, the Niners have been about average overall offensively with good adjusted yards per play defensive numbers. Houston qualifies in a couple of very good situations that are 240-144-8 and 47-9 and have been scrutinized all week by the media after blowing the game last week against Seattle. I expect that they will be motivated and focused for this non-conference game while the 49ers are in a divisional sandwich having played the Rams last week and facing the Cardinals at home next week. I like the Texans.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
New Orleans/ Chicago Over 50.5: This one has the making of a shootout, just like last weeks Chicago/ Detroit game. I know the Saints defense has been improved this year, but Miami did move the ball very well vs them at times last week and the Bears should be able to do the same. Chicago has put up 103 points in their last 3 games, but their defense has also given up 93 points in their last 3 games. Now this defense will take on a New Orleans offense that is starting to crank it up, putting up 69 points in their last 2 week. Overall the Saints are 4th in total offense, 2nd in passing offense and 7th in scoring (27 ppg). The weather s supposed to be a bit sloppy in the one, but still I expect at least 27 points from each team here.
San Diego/ Oakland Over 45: The Chargers offense is reborn under the direction of Mike McCoy and Phillip Rivers looks like he has been reborn as well. The Raiders have allowed 61 points in their last 2 games and San Diego should get their fair share off of them in this one. The Raiders are not a great passing team, but with their RB's hurt and Pryor back in their they will look to take advantage of a weak secondary of the Chargers. This one should hit 50 with ease.
2 UNIT PLAY
INDIANAPOLIS +1 over Seattle: Seattle is really winning with some luck and they don't play all that well away from home. Indianapolis is playing with a ton of confidence right now and if they beat the Niners on the road then they can beat Seattle at home.
1 UNIT PLAY
GREEN BAY -7 over Detroit: The Packers really need this game. They don't want to lose here and possibly fall another game behind the Bears. Green Bay has owned this team at Lambeau and it will continue here.
Bob Balfe
Eagles +1.5
As crazy as out it sounds the winner of this game is in pretty good shape in the NFC East. This division is a shell of what it once was. The Giants have problems on both the offensive and defensive lines. The interior of those units are riddled with injuries and things are not looking good. The Giants can’t run the football and they can’t stop the run on defense. This team is breaking in 3 new linebackers this year that were not starters last year on this team and it shows. Both teams are in a hole, but the pressure is far too great for the Giants right now. They are turning the ball over at an alarming rate as the offensive line can’t protect Manning. Outside of a deep ball to Victor Cruz there is nothing positive for this team. Philadelphia probably saved a lot of offensive plays just for this divisional game which are so important. Eagles fans know this team is in a rebuilding stage and Chip Kelly is not on a leash. Tom Coughlin and his bunch are under too much pressure to be able to win right now. I believe a change is in order and much needed for this Giants team so they can start the rebuilding stage themselves. Take the Eagles.
St. Louis Cardinals +140
In a crucial Game 3 matchup where the winner of this probably wins the series I am going to go with the more talented team. Joe Kelly has pitched very well this year and there are less miles on that arm opposed to Liriano. This should be another great game, but I just can’t see the Cardinals bailing out to a team they are much better than. Take St. Louis