Carlos Salazar
Bears vs. Saints
Play: Over 50
New Orleans travels to Chicago at 1pm on Sunday. Both teams have been putting up points this season and Carlos says we're in for more of the same today. New Orleans has played better defense this season but will be hard pressed to stop Chicago on the road. The Bears offense has scored over 31 points per game while their defense have given up nearly 30 per game. Look for a shoot out on Sunday in Chicago as this game goes over easily.
Triple Threat Sports
Detroit at Green Bay
Play: Green Bay
The bye week came at a great time for the Cheeheads, as it allowed them to get away after a maddening loss to the Bengals two weeks ago. This is a team that is 9-1 SU and 8-2 the last ten years after the bye week. They are also healthy now, and numbers show that they are on a 5-1 ATS run as home chalk and 11-2 ATS run in the NFC North.
Nelly
Philadelphia Eagles + over New York Giants
Only Denver is posting more yards per game than the Eagles and Philadelphia leads the NFL in yards per play on offense and overall in net yards per play few teams are better despite the shaky defense. After an impressive opening win the Eagles have lost three in a row however and turnovers continue to haunt the team. It could be worse, as the Giants can attest with lopsided losses the last three weeks to fall to 0-4. The good news for both teams is that 2-2 leads the division and this week the Cowboys have to play the Denver team that crushed them both this season. The Giants are a league-average team statistically but the turnovers are not going away and Philadelphia has had success this season with an 8-2 ATS mark the last 10 while the underdog has covered in 13 of the last 16 meetings in this fierce division rivalry. The Giants have allowed 36.5 points per game and the offense continues to struggle with protection. While Philadelphia has certainly has plenty of issues this is a Giants team that has only scored seven points the last two games, has no running game and yet is laying points in this matchup against one of the top offenses in the NFL. Everyone is expecting for the Giants to break out at some point but it could continue to be a costly wait as value has not yet come to the Giants even at 0-4.
Big Kat Sports
Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys
Take: Denver Broncos -7.5
This seems like the perfect spot to take the points with a talented team at home against the best team in the NFL. However, we are NOT getting in the way of the Peyton Manning freight train and actually feel that the Broncos will cover the number this afternoon against the Cowboys. Denver has now won 15 straight regular season games and their offense has put up 179 points in four games this season, which is good for the second most points through a team’s first four games in league history. The 37 year old Manning is on pace to throw for 5,880 yards and 64 TD’s and those numbers would obviously shatter the NFL record books. It seems that he is playing with a chip on his shoulder this season and is on a mission to get that second ring that brother Eli already has in his possession. Dallas is an awful 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in Cowboys Stadium and they should look to control the clock with RB DeMarco Murray if they have any intentions of staying close with the Broncos. They are 10-0 SU when Murray has at least 20 carries but all that may be null and void of they get down early and have to put the ball in Romo’s hands for the majority of the game. The blueprint is there for the Cowboys on how to win this afternoon but executing that is a totally different story against a Broncos team that is totally locked in at the moment. We aren’t expecting a 25+ point blowout from the Broncos today but we do like them by double digits so we’ll lay the 7.5 with them on the road this afternoon in Dallas as our Daily Free Play.
Wunderdog
Atlanta at Minnesota
Pick: Under 155.5
It's Game One of the WNBA Championship. Atlanta has had excellent balance all season. They ranked No. 4 in the league in rebounds and assists, and No. 6 in points allowed. These two teams split their regular-season matchups, each defending its home court. The last time these teams met was on August 20. During one stretch of that game, Minnesota went almost eight minutes without a field goal against the Atlanta defense, which forced 18 turnovers and allowed 41% shooting. This will also be a slow paced, defensive game, which is often the case in a championship series. Minnesota can play strong defense (No. 3 in points allowed), are on a 5-0 run UNDER the total, and the UNDER is 12-3-2 in the Lynx's last 17 games when playing on three or more days of rest. Play this one to finish UNDER the total.
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Chicago Bears over the New Orleans Saints... mainly because I feel like the Saints are in a bad spot and the Bears are in a good spot.
If these two teams were to play 10 times on a neutral field, the Saints would win 8 or 9 of those games... but I have a feeling today will be one of those "trap spots" where either team is capable of winning, but the Bears have more to play for at home after losing last week in Detroit.
While the Saints did destroy Miami Monday night after knocking the doors off the Arizona Cardinals the week before, let's not forget they beat the Falcons and Bucs by a combined eight points the previous two weeks.
New Orleans is far from being where they want to be this year, and there are still a lot of issues on both sides of the ball.
But like I said, this isn't about Chicago being better than the Saints... it's about the Bears being pissed off from last week's loss and knowing they are desperate for a win today, combined with the fact that they've beaten New Orleans the last three times the Saints have come to Soldier Field.
Chicago is more than capable of scoring points, and they're going to have to run the ball early in order to open up play action for Jay Cutler and the passing game.
Expect a fun game the entire way, but in the end the Bears pull out a squeaker.
Take the Bears as your free play of the day.
2♦ CHICAGO
Jeff Benton
Sunday freebie is the Packers at home over the Lions.
Quite important the 1-2 Packers win this game against the 3-1 Lions, as Green Bay looks to keep pace in a NFC North division they won last year.
The Packers have been off since blowing their game at Cincinnati, and Mike McCarthy's team should be raring to get back on the field against a division foe they have simply owned at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has not lost straight up at home to Detroit since 1991, and they have covered in 11 of the last 14 series meetings, including 3 of the last 4 games played at home.
Detroit is playing their third road game in the last 4 weeks, and are just 4-5 against the spread as the road underdog the last 2 years.
With Green Bay rested and ornery, and the Pack owning a 22-10-1 mark as the home chalk since 2009, I will side with the home favorite in this battle of NFC North foes.
4♦ GREEN BAY
Brad Wilton
My free play for Sunday will occur while many on the east coast are sound asleep, but I do like the Chargers to handle their business once again in Oakland.
The Bolts under new head coach Mike McCoy were able to level their season mark to 2-0 straight up with the win and cover over Dallas last weekend. For the season, the Chargers stand at 3-1-1 against the spread and they will be taking on an Oakland team that continues to look for answers at the quarterback position.
No doubt the advantage in this game rests with Philip Rivers and San Diego, and the series numbers also rest with the visitor in this matchup, as the road team have covered the last 7 series meetings between these AFC West rivals, with San Diego owning a convincing 9-2 spread mark the last 11 times they have visited the Black Hole.
Yes, it is a late start, but nothing wrong with making money while you sleep. Take the Chargers minus the points over the Raiders.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
Brett Atkins
My free winner is on tonight's late game between the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers, as I like it to go Over the posted number. These two rivals tend to put on a show, and tonight should be no different, especially with the later start, a little more time to get hyped up and a nationally televised audience.
Apparently, according to news reports, we're all to see new and improved quarterbacks in Oakland's Terrelle Pryor and San Diego's Philip Rivers. And as much as I refuse to believe Rivers is all that his stats say he is, yet, the guy is producing some non-Rivers like numbers. He has completed 80.5 percent of his passes the last three weeks, with seven touchdowns, one interception.
I also think Pryor should be breathing a bit of relief, since the Chargers sustained a big blow when star pass rusher Dwight Freeney went down with a season-ending quadriceps injury last week. Freeney led the team in quarterback pressures, and his absence should help the Raiders. And Pryor will be out to avenge his pro debut, as the Raiders signal-caller made his first career start versus the Chargers late last season, when he threw two touchdown passes and ran for one score in a 24-21 loss. It wasn't all that bad, but he swears he wants revenge for the loss.
I'll look for another wild shootout these two tend to have, and play this one high.
4♦ Oakland/San Diego OVER
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Sunday is on the Carolina Panthers against the Arizona Cardinals, as it's a very special game for Cam Newton, believe it or not. Nearly two years ago Cam Newton was the No. 1 draft pick set to play his first game.
And on a Sunday afternoon in Glendale, Arizona, at University of Phoenix Stadium, Newton threw for 422 yards, including a pair of touchdown passes to Steve Smith. The Panthers lost that day, 28-21, but the then-rookie sensation had Carolina sitting on the Cardinals' 2-yard line at the end.
Now he's back, in Arizona, and he and the Panthers have had plenty of time to rest, as they haven't played since a 38-0 whitewash of the New York Giants two weeks ago.
And while I fully believe in Carolina's offense, where I think the winning solution lies is in the trenches, where I think Arizona's offensive line will continue to struggle. The O-Ling has been far too erratic, and an aggressive defensive front like Carolina's could cause problems. Just as Arizona's veteran quarterback Carson Palmer, who called the Panthers' front seven the best his team has faced so far.
None of that bodes well for an Arizona team that has been inconsistent offensively and horrendous on third downs. It was 1-for-10 against the Buccaneers in last week's come-from-behind win.
Trust me, the right side is favored in this game, lay the points.
4♦ CAROLINA
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Sunday is a taste of another total, as I look to improve to 5-0 with my NFL freebies this season. I love the Denver Broncos/Dallas Cowboys to go Over the posted number, as I think this is going to be one of the most entertaining games of the day.
Let's just start with the explosive Broncos, who have been incredible this season, and for absolutely no reason look like a team slowing down. Quarterback Peyton Manning brings that offense to Big D, where they'll face a Dallas defense that is tied for last in passing touchdowns allowed with 10, and ranks 27th in passing defense.
Not exactly the stats you want to here about when you're about to host the best passing team in the league. Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas have combined for 1,236 yards receiving and 15 of Manning's 16 touchdowns.
Now, I'm not ready to sign off on Denver, and endorse it for the win. Not when I know this is the type of football game Tony Romo will out of nowhere produce career numbers. And with Von Miller out two more games on a drug suspension, and linebacker Danny Trevathan being taken off the field at practice Wednesday with a knee injury, I have to wonder how Dallas' offense will respond against the Broncos' dinged-up D. Trevathan, a second-year pro, is listed as questionable. And make note the Cowboys appear to be set on the offensive line with tackles Tyron Smith and Doug Free, guards Ron Leary and Brian Waters and rookie center Travis Frederick.
I'm thinking this game gets into the 60s. Take the Over.
2♦ Denver/Dallas OVER
Sean Michaels
Let's follow Saturday's free college winner on Baylor with an NFL freebie today.
Remember Philadelphia's blistering start at Washington in its season-opener. Well, since halftime of that game the Eagles have been outscored 131-73 and have subsequently lost three in a row after holding on for dear life for a win against the Skins in Chip Kelly's NFL debut.
Of course Philly's woes pale in comparison to those of the 0-4, aging and injury-riddled Giants.
This is a great spot to jump on Philly (+1'). Michael Vick should have time in the pocket against a non-existent NY pass rush that's generated just four sacks on the season. LeSean McCoy (468 yards rushing), who powers the league's No. 1 ground game, should find plenty of running room against the league's 28th-ranked rushing defense, a unit that will be without starting tackle Linval Joseph.
Philadelphia's defense is just as bad - or maybe even worse - than New York's, but considering the shambles of the Giants' offensive line (two starters out), a lack of a productive ground game and poor protection for Eli Manning (14 sacks, 9 interceptions), I'll side with the Eagles to be the team that breaks its losing streak in this NFC Least clash.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Greg Shaker
Oakland Raiders +4.5
The Chargers simply are going to have to show me that they are ready to lay this kind of number on the road, even to the Raiders. This game most likely is going to be won by a field goal and that very well might be Oakland doing that. A late night Yawner for sure but I do think that we will see some points in this contest and I might come back with an OVER here if we can get a line break down to 45. That's not likely to happen though..
John Ryan
Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys
Prediction: Denver Broncos
The simulator shows a high probability that Denver will win this game by 10 or more points. There is one red flag negative for this play and that is the betting public is all over the Broncos. Offsetting that a bit, is that several large bettors have placed wagers on the Broncos. It is very tempting to take the home dog in this situation, BUT Dallas has not shown any signs they can defend the pass and now face one of the best and one that is executing at a very high level. Broncos are banged up a some key positions. Inactives for today's game include Von Miller, Ryan Clady, Champ Bailey. OLB Danny Trevathan is ranked among the best NFL defenders against the run and he is banged up too. The Cowboys faced the Chargers and Philip Rivers ripped the secondary. River's renaissance has been much better decision making and not holding onto the ball - much like Manning does in his defensive reads pre-snap. Moreover, Manning has three receivers that are equally targeted and a solid TE. Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Eric Decker have been targeted 35 to 37 times with TE Jones targeted 24 times and ranks as the fourth best TE receiver in the game. You can bet Manning will target the receiver, who is matched up against OLD Bruce Carter and/or CB Morris Claiborne. I just don't see the Cowboys stopping the Denver offense and I don't see them being able to keep pace in a shootout. Take Denver.
Freddy Wills
Cincinnati Bengals +1½
The Patriots come off a road win on Sunday night as an under dog against the Falcons while the Bengals come off a bad loss where they only put up 6 points against the Browns on the road.
Bengals Backing
I'm backing the Bengals here as I did against the Packers at home. This Bengals team had 3 emotional games to start the season against the Bears where they could not hold onto their late lead, against the Steelers on Monday night and then coming from behind to beat the Packers. They were due for a clunker against the Browns who are much better than people give credit. The stock on the Bengals is very low right now, but they are a very good team and the best team the Patriots have played all year long.
Patriots Luck
Patriots have actually been unlucky this year despite their 4-0 start which they could have easily lost 3 of those games. The point here is they have not played anyone yet as their 4 opponents have a combined 5 wins in 17 games played. Even the Falcons are 1-3 to start the year. Why are the Patriots unlucky? Just take a look at their injuries. They lost Vince Wilfork which should open up the running game for the Bengals. We already know the Bengals should be able to pass with the weapons they have and now without Wilford the Patriots are going to have to spend extra energy to stop Giovani Bernard who is inevitably going to take over for Green-Ellis. More Patriot receivers are banged up in Thompkins and Dobson so the Patriots signed Austin Collie. At some point an offense is just going to outscore the Patriots offenses that seems to be declining.