Marc Lawrence
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers
A Keystone clash at the Ketchup Bottle finds the Steelers in rare air sporting a losing record. According to our well-oiled database, Pittsburgh is 28-7 SU and 27-8 ATS at home with a losing record when playing off a SU and ATS loss. That fits right into head coach Mike Tomlin's 19-7 SU and 17-9 ATS career mark when playing off a loss, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nines games. FYI: Tomlin has never lost a game when taking the field with a losing record, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Eagles check in off Sunday night's hard-fought win over the defending Super Bowl champion Giants - not a good thing if you're a Philly fanatic. That's because road teams who knocked off the defending champs in their previous game are 19-40 SU and 20-38-1 ATS, including a jaw-dropping 3-29 SU and 6-25-1 ATS when installed as dogs of 3 or more points! With Ben Roethlisberger chipping in with a 21-7 SU and 19-9 ATS record in games off one-loss exact, including 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine, the Burghers appear hot off the grill today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh. Thank you and good luck as always. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh.
Frank Jordan
Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has twice now this season rebounded nicely after single score losses to win the next week this time they look to get over the .500 mark with a win at Indianapolis. The Luck era has begun in Indianapolis and it is roughly how Peyton started rocky as the Colts are 1-2 through three games and are coming off a bye week. Luck had a good week two winning over Minnesota after getting crushed in week one against Chicago, however week three they let one get away losing 22-17 to Jacksonville a division foe. Things won't be easy come Sunday when they go up against the fierce Packer pass rush. Look for the rookie to run out of Luck as Mathews, Woodson, and company torment the rook all day long. Play Green Bay
Steve Merril
Washington Nationals vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
The Nationals and Cardinals begin their series in St. Louis on Sunday afternoon. St. Louis sends Adam Wainwright to the mound where he is 14-13 with a 3.94 ERA in 32 starts for the Cardinals. He is 10-6 with a 3.73 ERA at home. He beat the Nationals his last time out after giving up 1 run and five hits in six innings in a 12-2 Cardinals win. Michael Morse (2-8) and Jayson Werth (4-16) have had their problems with Wainwright. Despite the best record in baseball, Washington must start their postseason on the road so we'll see how the young team handles that. Gio Gonzalez has been the best pitcher for the Nationals this season. He is 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA in 32 starts for Washington this season. Gonzalez has a 3.31 ERA on the road and a 3.72 ERA in the daytime. St. Louis is hitting .271 against left-handed starters and .265 overall. They have one of the best lineups in baseball against southpaws. The Cardinals are hitting .305 against lefties at home. Washington's youth may be on display in this game so we’ll recommend taking the home team on Sunday afternoon.
Rob Vinciletti
Bears vs. Jaguars
Play: Under
This game fits a nice week 5 system that plays to the under for road teams like Chicago that are 3-1 and playing off a win with a total of 49 or less, provided this is their third road game of the season. These games have played under 27 of 36 times long term. Both Defenses are solid allowing under 255 yards per game this season. The Jaguars have been inept on offense and while Chicago has been good on offense they could be a little flat off the Road dog in in Dallas on Monday night in a game where they were aided by a plethora of Dallas turnovers. The Jaguars have stayed under in 3 of this season. The Bears have played under the last 8 times vs Non conference teams that have a win percentage of .400 or less. Look for this game to stay under the total today.
Larry Ness
Baltimore vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
The Ravens are 3-1 but have been ‘through the ringer’ to open the 2012 season. They kicked of their season with the first game of Week 1’s MNF doubleheader, pulling away to beat the Bengals, 44-13. Week 2 saw them play regional rival Philly and lose in the final two minutes, 24-23. Then it was an emotional rematch with the Patriots on SNF in Week 3 (Ravens lost at New England in LY’s AFC championship game, 23-20) with the Ravens ‘escaping’ with a 31-30 win on a 27-yard FG at 0:00! Just four nights later, the Ravens outlasted the Browns 23-16 at Baltimore in an uninspiring effort on Thursday Night football (was the team’s fourth game in 18 days). The Ravens are on the road this week in KC, to face the 1-3 Chiefs but watch out. Baltimore played five non-division road games last year (Ravens were road favorites in each one) and won just ONE! KC may be 1-3 but the Chiefs are averaging 418.5 YPG on offense, while allowing just 334.0. That’s a plus-84.5 YPG difference, surely NOT typical of a 1-3 team. The ‘killer’ is the Chiefs have a whopping 15 giveaways after four games and just two takeaways on defense. The team’s minus-13 TO ratio is easily the worst of any NFL team (Cowboys are 2nd-worst at just minus-7). The Chiefs are allowing 34.0 PPG (2nd-most in the NFL) and are scoring 22.0 PPG, a minus-12.0 PPG difference. If the Chiefs ever stop turning the ball over, they may be dangerous and as mentioned, the Ravens hardly played well in this situation last year (road game vs a non-divisional opponent). The Chiefs have been a strong home dog over the years but so far in 2012, they’ve lost 40-24 to the Falcons in Week 1 (plus-2) and 37-20 to the Chargers last Sunday at plus-2 1/2. However, I do expect a much better effort from the Chiefs in this game. It’s hard to ignore Baltimore’s poor efforts last year in these kind of spots. KC can’t keep turning the ball over at this rate (no team ever has) and I’m taking the points.
Bryan Power
Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
According to research, the Eagles are the first team in NFL history to post three wins by two points or less in the first four weeks of the season. Despite their 3-1 record, they have a point differential of -17. After beating the Giants last Sunday Night, Philly is in for a bit of a letdown this week as they get set to visit Pittsburgh where they' find an angry (and rested) Steelers team.
Surprisingly, Pittsburgh finds itself at 1-2. With both the Ravens and Bengals off to strong starts in the division, the Steelers MUST have this game. They are off a bye, meaning they've had two weeks to stew over a head-scratching loss to a bad Oakland Raiders team they had a double digit lead against. Over the last three seasons, Pittsburgh is a perfect 9-0 ATS when coming off a straight up loss. This is a very strong home team with QB Ben Roethlisberger now 25-5 straight up his last 30 starts at Heinz Field with a 45-15 TD-INT ratio! As an added bonus, safety Troy Polamalu is expected back while RB Rashard Mendenhall and LB James Harrison are expected to make their respective season debuts.
The Steelers dominated their first home game, beating the Jets 27-10. They have held second half leads in both losses. Despite the records, Pittsburgh is the better team here. The Eagles have been trailing at the two minute warning in all four games this season.
David Chan
Atlanta vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The Falcons are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS; last week they beat Carolina 30-28, unable to cover the 7-point spread.
Atlanta has matched its best start in franchise history, guided by QB Matt Ryan, who has the league's highest NFL passer rating at 112.1.
The win over Carolina wasn't pretty though, as Ryan was sacked seven times.
Defensively the team looks sound, giving up just 19 points per game.
However take note, already 0-1 ATS this season vs. conference opponents, the Falcons are just 13-14 ATS in the same position over the last two.
The Redskins are 2-2 SU/ATS; last week they won at Tampa Bay 24-22 as 1.5-point underdogs.
This is a big game for Washington as it looks to snap a seven-game home losing streak.
QB Robert Griffin III has been superb this year, with a 103.2 passer rating, throwing just one INT in 124 attempts.
Washington is averaging 30.8 points per game.
The Falcons thrive off of turnovers, but the Redskins are tied with Atlanta and Houston for the fewest, just two.
RB Alfred Morris leads a unit which produces a league-best 175.5 yards per game on the ground.
Defensively the team has been pretty stalwart, especially against the run.
The Falcons rely on RB Michael Turner to keep teams honest, to set up the play action for Ryan. However, the Redskins are yielding just 89 yards per game on the ground.
Note, already 2-0 ATS this year as an underdog, Washington is 15-11 ATS in the same position over the last two.
So will Atlanta come in overconfident and overlook this underrated Redskins team?
I believe the answer is: yes!
Washington has many motivational factors working in its favor here, and I expect its secondary to do just enough for it to come away with at least the ATS cover.
Consider a second look at the home side in this matchup!
Sean Murphy
Denver vs. New England
Pick: Over
Neither team has been the dominant 'over' bet that most expected them to be coming into this season, with the both the Broncos and Patriots sitting at 2-2 from an o/u perspective.
However, it's clear that both offenses are getting stronger with each passing week, and anytime you have Peyton Manning going up against Tom Brady, even if the former's arm strength is in question, and the latter doesn't have quite as many weapons around him, you have to give a long, hard look to the 'over'.
The biggest question mark entering this contest is whether or not Peyton Manning can still go toe-to-toe with Tom Brady. Even if his arm strength isn't 100%, Manning is still finding a way to make it work, most recently completing 30-of-38 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns in last week's rout of the Raiders. Even if the Broncos offense has been inconsistent, they've still managed to produce at least three touchdowns in all four games this season. There's little reason to expect that trend to reverse against an uneven Patriots defense on Sunday.
New England has been lights out offensively in three of four games this season, putting up at least 30 points on all three occasions. They've taken things to a whole new level, with some help from an opportunistic defense, scoring a whopping 82 points in the last two weeks. The Broncos do boast a tremendous pass rush, but I question whether their linebacking corps and secondary can hold up against Brady and company on Sunday. Remember, a very similar Broncos defense gave up 41 and 45 points in two meetings with the Patriots last season.
This one isn't just about Manning and Brady. The two offenses have found nice rhythm lately thanks in large part to the emergence of explosive ground games. Broncos RB Willis McGahee is running as well as he has at any point in his career, while the Patriots are getting steady production from rookie RB Stevan Ridley, and if last week was any indication, Brandon Bolden is capable of playing a big part in the offense as well.
There's a lot going on in this matchup, and when it's all said and done on Sunday evening, I'm confident we'll be left talking about one of Sunday's most entertaining games.
Chris Elliott
Buffalo vs. San Francisco
Pick: Buffalo
The Buffalo Bills (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) travel to Candlestick Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) in week 5 Sunday afternoon.
The Bills are stinging after getting hammered at home last week 52-28 to a determined New England Patriots club. They had won their previous two contests 24-14 at Cleveland and 35-17 at home vs. K.C. after a week 1 loss 48-28 at NYJ.
QB Fitzpatrick has put up decent numbers with an 89.8 QB rating, 57.6% completion, 931 yards throwing, 12 TDs, 7 INTs and 66 yards on the ground. Of note, all of his 7 INTs were in the teams 2 losses to the Jets and NE. Keep it simple Fitzy and your team will keep it close.
Neither RB Jackson (knee) or Spiller (shoulder) are at 100% however both are expected to play Sunday. The duel when healthy are as good as any RB combo in the league. In 2011 they combined for 2,206 total yards from scrimmage with 12 TDs.
The offense has been excellent overall ranking 6th with 28.75 PPG. Their rushing attack has been stellar ranking 4th overall with a massive 632 yards through week 4.
The Bills focus in the offseason was on improving the team defense. They landed big name free agents DE Mario Williams and DE Mark Anderson to solidify a front line that includes 2011 third overall pick DT Marcell Dareus out of Alabama. The defense has struggled so far ranking 30th allowing 32.7 PPG and ranking 25th giving up 406.5 YPG. LB Nick Barnett has been awesome with 38 tackles while DT Kyle Williams leads with 3.5 sacks.
San Francisco is known for hard nose football with a strong defensive presence. Patrick Willis is arguably the best linebacker in the game right now with 5 years in the league and 5 pro bowls including 4 first team all pros (2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011).
QB Alex Smith is an efficient passer with a 98.1 QB rating and 67.3% completion. He does not have a big play offensive weapon at WR however TE Vernon Davis is considered one of the most athletic players in the game and is the fastest of the 49er receivers.
RB Frank Gore continues an impressive career with 326 yards rushing in 4 games this season and 7,951 in his career in 104 games.
The offense ranks 12th in the NFL scoring 26 PPG and 19th with 346.3 YPG. The defense ranks 3rd in the NFL giving up a mere 16.3 PPG and 5th in the NFL allowing 277.3 YPG.
LB Navorro Bowman (arm) is probable for this game while CB Carlos Rogers (ankle), DT Isaac Sopoaga (knee/ankle) and RB Brandon Jacobs are all questionable.
These two teams haven't met since 2008 therefore the head to head matchup is irrelevant. I expect both teams to supply a heavy dose of the run game in this one which will eat up time on the clock. If Buffalo can avoid turning the ball over they can keep this game close. With Buffalo currently getting 11 points, take the Bills to do enough to cover the spread.
Jesse Schule
Green Bay vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Over
The Packers will be in Indy to take on the Colts in Week 5, coming off a barn burner with the Saints. The Colts will have their hands full with this high flying Packers offense, and you can expect to see plenty of points in this game.
The Packers came into last week ranking first overall in the NFL against the pass, however they allowed Drew Brees to gain more yards in last week's game than they had allowed in all three previous games. Brees threw for 446 yards and three TDs against the Green Bay secondary.
The last four times these two teams have faced each other head to head, they have seen the total go OVER the listed number in all four contests. Of Course the last time the Colts played the Packers, they had Peyton Manning at quarterback. Andrew Luck hasn't had a real breakout game yet this year, however he showed plenty of promise in the pre-season. This week he may have an opportunity to put up some big numbers against this Packers secondary.
If the Colts are going to have any chance of winning this game, they are gonna need all the points they can get. After being blown out by the Bears in Chicago in their season opener, the Colts have played a couple of close games, winning at home over the Vikes and losing last week to the Jags. This will be their first test against one of the premier offensive teams in the NFL, and you can expect them to struggle to keep the Packers from scoring.
The Indy defense has been one of the worst in the NFL at containing the run, allowing an average of over 130 yards rushing per game so far. The Packers will use the run to set up the pass, and if their running game gets going, they will put up a lot of points.
It's gonna be a shootout in Indy on Sunday ..
Teddy Covers
Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
The reigning #1 defense in the NFL (Pittsburgh) was torched by Peyton Manning and the Broncos passing game in their opener. They got torched at Oakland prior to the bye as well, allowing the modest Raiders offense to score on each of their last five drives of the game.
That being said, this spot clearly favors the Steelers, hungry and angry off their bye week. Linebacker Larry Foote: “I think we need the time to evaluate ourselves mentally. We need to get away and individually we need some soul searching, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Guys need to pick it up, look at themselves in the mirror and see what we can do.” Of course the expected return to the lineup of formerly injured defensive stars James Harrison and Troy Polamalu should help matters significantly.
The Eagles continued to find ways to win tight games last Sunday Night against the Giants, when a fortuitous offensive pass interference penalty and subsequent missed Lawrence Tynes field goal allowed Philly to escape with a 3-1 record. That being said, their next pointspread cover will be their first of the season – much like last year’s team that started the campaign 4-8 ATS, the 2012 version has been an overvalued commodity from Day 1 this year.
That’s not likely to change. Philly’s overall stats look impressive. They’ve outgained their opponents by a whopping 0.9 yards per play (third best margin in the league, behind only San Francisco and Baltimore) and that hasn’t come against weaklings either – they’ve faced the Giants, Cardinals and Ravens over the last three weeks. The markets look at Philly’s -5 turnover differential and see a team primed to improve.
But after three barnburners in four weeks, facing a rested and determined foe, it’s not going to be an easy task for the Eagles to hang around for 60 minutes this week. It’s worth noting how badly Philly looked in their lone previous road tilt, and how good the Steelers looked in their lone previous home game. And with Ben Roethlisberger making fewer mistakes than Michael Vick these days, don’t be shocked if the Eagles fail to bounce back off a their miscues here – exactly what happened at Arizona. Take Pittsburgh.
Spartan
Denver +7
Last week we cashed in easily on the Patriots as our big Game of the Month in the NFL, but with that being said I'm going against Brady and company this sunday against the Broncos. Not sure just how many more times we'll have the opportunity to sit back and enjoy a battle of arms and wits between two of the absolute greatest to ever get under center. Brady & Manning have staged some epic battles in the past and this has at least the potential to be yet another. Here is a hard, cold stubborn fact to consider here guys. The last half dozen times these two have squared off the thing was decided by a touchdown or less. And here we have Peyton and his Broncos catching that key number of seven. Manning throughout his career has usually been pure money when taking the field as a dog. The public will be drooling over the Patriots here but I suspect this game will be competitive to the end. Denver will be looking to serve up some payback after a pair of convincing losses to the Patriots last year. I'm not calling for an outright but I do feel taking Manning and the generous points is the sharp side for us. We cashed last week on the free release with Miami getting the cash at Arizona, let's get another one here.
Johnny Detroit
NY Giants -8.5
The Browns kept it close with the Ravens as Brandon Weeden put up 300+ yards in the air, but Trent Richardson only managed 47 yards on the ground as Cleveland fell to 0-4. The loss of Josh Cribbs early in the game hurt the Browns, but it was the running game that was an utter disaster. Prior to the loss to the Eagles, the Giants piled up 41 points on Tampa Bay and 36 on the Panthers. Eli Manning made a poor decision in the red zone and now leads the league in red zone interceptions. The Giants should roll here and we feel they win by a couple TDs as Manning gets the job done this week.
King Creole
Philadelphia +3.5
We talked about it on this week's Marc Lawrence radio show. And it's been tweeted out by numerous sharp handicappers. So what is 'it'?
It's the unreal winning percentage for all UNDERDOGS from the NFC Conference this season. With Thursday's outright WIN by the St Louis Rams.... all NFC underdogs have now gone 24-3-1 ATS so far this season. It could be in division games... or non-division conference games... or in NON-conference games (like OUR play). But any way you slice it, DOGS in this conference have hit at 89% so far this season. There's only three such dogs going on Sunday (EAGLES / SEAHAWKS / and REDSKINS).
For this contest between two teams from the state of Pennsylvania, a bias is building against a 3-1 Eagles team that the public faded big since an opening week nail-biter at Cleveland. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is likely gaining an important hook (the half of a point in addition to the standard three point line given to the home team in a presumed otherwise even game) here as it comes off of a bye week the healthiest it has been since last December.
Philadelphia, which finished last season with a top three defense overall and against the pass, yet again has a strong defense. The Eagles are only giving up 5.8 yards-per-pass and lead the league by allowing just 52.4% completions (this is in a league where 12 teams average 65%+). More specifically, in games against Philadelphia, quarterbacks are 75-for-143 for 827 yards with five touchdowns and six interceptions. In all other games played by those teams, quarterbacks are 301-for-480 (62.7%) for 3,453 yards (7.2 yards-per-pass), 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Offensively, the Eagles are a top ten team as well. On the season, Philadelphia is averaging almost a full yard (0.84) more per play than its opponents (despite running the ball significantly more often).
Pittsburgh anticipates the return in this game of James Harrison, Troy Polamalu and Rashard Mendenhall. NONE of these guys will help in their 'achilles heel' however. The Steelers, who have only covered the spread in three of their last ten games, have some obvious flaws that the Eagles should be able to exploit. Chief among these is an offensive line that we would rank as one of the five weakest in the NFL. Furthermore, their age and depth concerns on defense have led to a below average (#20) ranking in our efficiency metrics - and that's assuming Polamalu and Harrison are healthy.
Ultimately, this is another case of a top five team in the NFL heading on the road to a fringe top 15 team. The fringe top 15 team does not deserve to be favored - especially not by more than a field goal. The door is likely closing for the Pittsburgh Steelers in this era. Philadelphia may shut it completely with a win that catapults the Eagles back into serious Super Bowl contending conversations.
In the last 4 seasons, ALL home teams playing off their BYE Week... and off a SUATS road loss (Pitt) have gone a PERFECT 0-7 ATS...
Andy Iskoe
Jacksonville +5.5
Prior to their Monday night win in Dallas, Chicago was expected to be about a 4 point favorite in this game but the line was bet up on Tuesday following the impressive Monday night win. The Jags remain one of the weakest teams in the league and will face a defense capable of frustrating J'ville QB Blaine Gabbert. Yet at the same time can Jay Cutler really be expected to have another solid game, especially off a short week and playing a second straight road game? Chicago has a below average offense which may not be as able to exploit the Jaguars' defense as easily as have other foes. This is as much a play against Chicago as it is on Jacksonville as the Bears, clearly the better team, should not be favored by more than a FG on the in interconference play.