Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
NEW ENGLAND -6.5 over Denver: The way the Pats played last week, I see them going on a serious run and the Broncos will not stand in their way here. The Pats offense was in high gear last week, especially once they were down 21-7 ad that showed me the fire this team has when the play well. From that point on they outscored Buffalo 42-7. I know the Denver defense is tougher than that of the Bills, but when Brady is on their isn't a defense in the league that can stop him. Last year in the playoffs the Broncos were crushed by this team and I while Manning is an upgrade at QB for this team, I just don't feel that Denver has closed the gap enough to keep this one close. Denver has played two good offenses this year (Houston and Atlanta) and they allowed 58 combined points in the 2 games, so this defense can be exposed vs some good offenses and New England will expose them. The Pats allowed 28 points last week to Buffalo, but just 7 after they were down 21-7 and they have generally done well vs Peyton as he is 6-10 vs them and he had many more weapons at Indy than he has now. New England will look to make a statement with a big 14+ point win over a Denver team that just doesn't have enough defense to contain this offense.
4 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee +6 over MINNESOTA: I like the Titans in this spot. Jake Locker will be a good QB, but I feel the fact that Hasselbeck will be in there gives Tennessee a better chance of winning this one. Last week vs Houston Matt threw for 193 yards and a pair of TD’s in relief of the injured locker and he should have a good showing in this one vs a Minnesota defense that has really overachieved this year in facing pathetic offenses in Jacksonville and Indianapolis. Tennessee’s offense has not been great, but I feel that with Matt back there they have a better chance of putting up some points. The Titan’s weakness has been their pass defense that has allowed 285 ypg passing, but this Vikings are not a passing team and Minnesota Tennessee has limited the damage on the ground, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry, despite 136 ypg. I feel the titans should be able to Slow down Petersen enough to make Ponder try an beat them and that is not a role he is accustomed to. Minnesota is off BB wins vs San Fran and Detroit and have a road date with Washington and RG# on deck, so this could be a flat spot for them. Look for the Titans to have their best game of the year and keep this one very close, if not win outright.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Kansas City/ Baltimore Over 47: The Baltimore offense has been very good this year, putting up 424 ypg and 30 ppg, plus they are 2nd in the league in yards per play at 6.4. Very impressive numbers for this offense and they will be taking on a Chiefs defense that comes in allowing 34 ppg and 6.1 yards per play (28th). This chiefs defense will not be able to keep up with the no huddle attack of the Ravens. On the other side when have a Chiefs offense that has been very good this year. Kansas City comes in averaging 420 ypg overall and 174 ypg on the ground. The Ravens do allow just 3.2 yards per carry, but KC is top in the league, gaining 5.6 yards per rushing attempt. That ground attack should suck in the Baltimore defense, giving Matt Cassell an excellent shot at exploiting a Baltimore defense that is 29th in the league vs the pass, allowing 296 ypg. Baltimore also allows 7.3 ypa (23rd), while Kansas City is a bit worse, allowing 7.9 per pass attempt, which is 28th in the league. Both of these offenses has been very good this year, and they should have good showings vs a couple of defenses that are struggling this year. Look for this one in the 50's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The last 4 years from game 5 on out all road favs of 4 or more that are off a Thursday night game have seen the Over go 15-2.
Buffalo/ San Francisco Under 45: Gotta like the Under here. the Bills just gave up 52 points last week so you know they will be looking hard to improve on that side of the ball this week. It also helps that they will be playing a bit more conservative of an offense in the Niners. San Fran likes to pound the ball, play field position and then rely on their defense to do the rest, especially at home. The Bills offense has been good at times this year, but they have yet to face a defense this good. The Niners come in 3rd in total defense and 4th in points allowed and last week they they a shutout at the Jets after struggling in their loss at Minnesota. The Niners allow just 4.7 yards per play and that will not allow the Bills some easy scores. On the other side the Bills defense has been torched, but mostly threw the air and the Niners are a rushing team, so I don't see a lot of up and down the field from the Niners in this one. Both teams will run the ball more than throw it in this one and that will eat a lot of clock. San Fran does play more of a conservative game at home and I feel that will keep the score in the 30's and not the 40's
Jack Jones
Buffalo Bills +10
The Buffalo Bills are showing great value Sunday as a double-digit underdog to the San Francisco 49ers. This line has been inflated due to last week's results, and I'll gladly take advantage Sunday.
San Francisco beat the New York Jets 34-0 last week. Obviously, public perception is very high on the 49ers right now. Buffalo lost to New England 28-52, so public perception is not very high on the Bills right now. This has provided us with excellent line value.
This play falls into a system that is 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - good offensive team (335 to 370 YPG) against a team with a terrible defense (>=370 YPG).
The 49ers are 4-18 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game since 1992. The Bills are 16-4 ATS in road games after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992. The 49ers are 8-24-4 ATS in their last 36 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Bet the Bills Sunday.
Jimmy Boyd
Cleveland Browns +8.5
The Browns are 0-4 but have been very competitive. In fact, they have been at their best against their best competition. They have played the Eagles, Bengals and Ravens - all playoff caliber opponents - to 7 points or less.
The defending Super Bowl champs are just 2-2 and only one of their wins have come by more than the posted number for this game. This is a lot of points for the Giants to be laying considering how many yards they've been giving up. They rank 22nd in the NFL with 372.2 yards allowed per game.
The Browns have consistently been disrespected by odds makers recently, and they have consistently played their opponents tougher than the books thought they would. As a result, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games. They are also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
The fact Cleveland is on the road and yet to win this season is of no concern. Consider that it is 6-0 ATS in road games following 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It has only lost by an average of 3.5 points in this situation.
It is also worth noting that the Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
In addition, teams coached by Tom Coughlin are just 11-24 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. His teams have only won by an average of 4.9 points. in this situation.
The Browns have had a few extra days to prepare as they played the Thursday game last week. That only helps their cause. They likely won't be able to get the "W" but should keep this one within the number. Take the points.
Joseph D'Amico
Chicago Bears vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Chicago Bears
Jacksonville has the worst offense in the NFL. Blaine Gabbert has been sacked 12 times this season. The QB tends to hold on to the ball too long. This combined with the fact that Maurice Jones-Drew has been held under 100 YR in three of the four games this season. WR, Laurent Robinson is most likely out due to a concussion. The rest of the Jaguars receiving corps do not match up well against a Bears secondary and overall "D" that held a solid Cowboys offense to just 18 points LW. Chicago is steadily improving, combining for 77 points in their L2 outings. QB, Jay Cutler is becoming more confident with each game while the legs of Forte (check status) and Bush have combined for 343 YR and 4 TDs. The tandem will face a Jacksonville run defense that allows 150.3 YPG on the ground. The Bears are 4-1 ATS their L5 games played overall while the Jaguars are 5-16-1 ATS their L22 games played vs. teams with a winning record. Take Chicago.
Jim Feist
Dolphins vs. Bengals
Play: Over
Miami has found a running game with Reggie Bush, ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing, and have now found a QB. Miami rookie Ryan Tannehill threw for 431 yards last week in a tough loss at Arizona. But this Miami secondary is terrible, 30th in the NFL against the pass allowing 297.8 yds per game. The over is 5-2 in the Dolphins last 7 games overall. Cincinnati is far more uptempo on offense this season, and the over is 7-1 in Bengals last 8 home games. They have plenty of passing weapons to attack Miami and the over is 13-3 in the Bengals last 16 against the AFC, as well as 10-1 over the total in their last 11 games on fieldturf. Play the Dolphins/Bengals Over the total.
DUNKEL INDEX
NY Yankees at Baltimore
The Orioles look to build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Baltimore is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140)
Game 909-910: Washington at St. Louis (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 16.882; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.266
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Over
Game 911-912: Cincinnati at San Francisco (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.759; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.320
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Under
Game 913-914: Oakland at Detroit (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 16.537; Detroit (Fister) 15.656
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+140); Under
Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Baltimore (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.385; Baltimore (Hammel) 17.050
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140); Over
WNBA
Minnesota at Los Angeles
The Sparks look to build on their 9-1-1 ATS record in their last 11 home games. Los Angeles is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2)
Game 605-606: Minnesota at Los Angeles (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.024; Los Angeles 124.147
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 11; 163
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 167 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2 1/2); Under
Harry Bondi
Baltimore / Kansas City Over 46.5
As we noted in last week's Handicapper's Notebook, the Ravens defense is overrated and as a result Baltimore which has gone over in eight of its last 11 road games has become a team that depends on its offense to win games. Believe it or not, the Chiefs have one of the top-ranked offenses in the NFL and will be able to score points today at home. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, they've allowed 27 points or more in all four games this year and the Ravens will easily top that mark. It's a shootout at Arrowhead. Go over.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +195 over N.Y. YANKEES
Incredibly, since 1995, the Yanks have missed the playoffs just one time. They have been knocked out in the first round eight of those 15 years. Most recently, the Yanks were knocked out in round one in four straight years from 2004 to 2007 and were also beaten last season by the Tigers. This is a team that was built to make the playoffs but a lack of pitching once they get here has been their downfall. The same could hold true this year. Outside of C.C. Sabathia, every other starter in the Yanks rotation is a potential liability. Of course the same can be said for the Orioles but they have an outstanding bullpen and closer and they’re not the team taking back close to 2-1 odds.
The Orioles just won’t go away. They’re not just happy to be here. They come to the park expecting to win and they usually do. Every time you expect the “magic” to end, it doesn’t. This is a young and dangerous team that is playing with house money under no pressure whatsoever.
We could take the Orioles in game one today at +144. However, +195 in a five game series sure looks better should they win game one. Should they go onto win game 2, they become a big favorite and we could hedge. If they lose the first game, our bet is still alive. The tag on the Orioles is simply too big to ignore.
ST. LOUIS +100 over Washington
Props to all the great pitchers that won 20 games, nearly won 20 games or that were consistently good all season long. Adam Wainwright didn’t win 20 games. In fact, he lost 13. However, he’s as good as any pitcher in the league and should never be a dog in his own yard.
Although he had a high ERA in early May, Wainwright's skills showed no effect from his 2011 Tommy John surgery. Now in early October, Wainwright's season is even more impressive. Wainwright has 184 K’s in 199 innings, an elite 51% groundball rate an xERA that is within a couple of points of his previous lofty perches. While strand rate and 1H hr/f have done in Wainwright's ERA, everything else screams "elite." The fact that his 2H has been even better means that, tough as it is to imagine, he even has more upside. This guy is as elite as any in the business.
Gio Gonzalez is also elite, making this a pretty sweet pitcher’s duel. However, this is a first for many of the Nats, including Gonzalez’s first appearance in the playoffs. It’s also worth noting that 10 of Wainwright’s 14 wins came at home and the combination of the Cardinals and Wainwright in their own backyard is too strong to pass up on without having to spot anything.
Scott Delaney
On a free pick run of 18-8, I look to improve on that with a free play on the Atlanta Falcons-Washington Redskins going Over the posted number. I've been holding on to this play all week, listening to everyone talk about the weather and how these two fast-paced offensive units won't be able to move the ball.
But one intangible has kept my head in the game, and kept me thinking the same thing as obviously the oddsmakers.- the line hasn't budged off of 51 points. Why do you think that is?
Perhaps it's cause of RGIII, maybe it's because of Matt Ryan, it could be because of the two offenses we're talking about. Fact is, the oddsmakers believe this one is capable of hitting the 50-point plateau.
Last week RGIII looked spectacular, throwing for 323 yards, running for another 36 and leading his Redskins on a 56-yard winning drive that culminated with a game-winning field goal.
I know this is a huge test for Griffin, whose two wins have come against teams that are a combined 1-7, but with this one being played home, I suspect he'll feed off the frenzied crowd and will be fired up against one of the best offensess in the league.
The Falcons are putting up 31 points per game, third best in the NFL, and will be the stiffest test for the Redskins thus far. That doesn't necessarily bode well for the 'Skins, who has allowed 1,305 passing yards (31st in the league) and 13 passing touchdowns (a league-high).
That's not something you can just fix, so the 'Skins have no choice but to put points on the board in this one, as you better believe Mall hit Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner.Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner.atty Ice will utilize his more-than capable weapons, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner.
Besides, if the Redskins' second-most potent rushing attack in the league, which averages 171 yards a game, you're going to see them keep pace behind RGIII. He's given his team a chance to win every game thus far, and though this is arguably the best secondary he has seen to this point, he'll be ready.
Play this one over, as it'll be a shootout.
5♦ OVER Falcons/Redskins
Craig Davis
Free play winner yesterday on Ohio State.
Free play run is 83-68.
Sunday's free play is the San Diego Chargers.
If this were last year, the Saints would easily be at least a six- or seven-point favorite. Today, it's barely 3 1/2.
Is it really possible the Saints could actually open a season 0-5 for the first time in 16 years? Yeah, it's possible... and I think it might happen.
What's being overshadowed in this misery is the fact that QB Drew Brees tied Johnny Unitas record, set in 1960, of consecutive games throwing at least one TD pass. He'll break that record today, but that's the furthest thing from Brees's mind as he just wants to get a win.
But it's clearly not all on the shoulders of Brees... as the offense has done a decent job so far and has definitely put this team in position to win some games. The problem is... the defense is horrible.
I don't believe it's as horrible as it has looked. I truly believe they have the Bounty-Gate scandal on their minds and it has them playing tentatively. No, I'm not saying that's the only reason... but it's obviously playing a small factor. You don't go from decent to that horrible in one season. Granted, they did lose a few players from that squad, but there's still no way you end up being that bad!!
The Saints have allowed a league-worst 463 yards per game... and that's 40 more than the next-closest team. Yikes. They also allow almost 33 points per game and opposing QBs have a sick 107 QB rating against this porous unit.
No, Philip Rivers hasn't been as good as we know he can be this year, but he's consistent and he's not turning the ball over as much as he did last year. He's still getting used to a few new receivers and not having Vincent Jackson, but this defense can make any QB look like a beast.
Even though the the Chargers have some injury issues up front and at RB, but overall they are a better football team than New Orleans and I think they win SU.
Take the Chargers as your free play of the day.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Jeff Benton
Free play winner on Miss State yesterday, now an 11-4 free play run.
Your Sunday freebie is to back the road underdog Titans plus the near touchdown at Minnesota this afternoon.
Give Minny coach Leslie Frazier credit, as Minnesota has matched their win total from all of last season through the first four weeks of the season this year. The Vikes enter at 3-1 straight up, and second-year quarterback Christian Ponder has yet to throw a pick this season (only NFL starter to lay claim to that stat after four weeks by the way!), but Ponder has not been able to engineer too many touchdowns, as both of Minnesota's scores last week came on special teams - kick-off and punt return TD's.
Veteran Matt Hasselbeck figures to be a little sharper than he was last week when he came off the bench for the injured Jake Locker, so count on Tennessee to come up with a few more points this time around.
Minnesota has been a money-burner when installed as the favorite as they are 0-2 in that role this season, and just 1-7 overall in that role since Frazier took over at the start of last season.
No doubt this is a game the Vikings should win, but is it a game they can cover? I don't think so.
Take the Titans plus the points.
2♦ TENNESSEE
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Sunday takes me to Minneapolis, where I am playing the Minnesota Vikings over the visiting Tennessee Titans, a team I don't believe has the personnel to slow running back Adrian Peterson.
He's been the focal point for Minnesota's offense, as the Vikings have shunned the newer pass-happy ways of much of the league. At 3-1, they're doing something right, and make no mistake, quarterback Christian Ponder is doing his part to balance things out when the Vikings have the ball.
Peterson is 10th in the league with 332 yards rushing, and thanks to his style of running, and the holes he constantly is able to find - in tight quarters off the center gaps - it's helped Ponder develop a rhythm early on.
That balance doesn't bode well for the Titans, who have given up a league-high 151 points - that's nearly a whopping 38 points per game.
And the biggest problem for Tennessee, in giving up that many points, is it's forced to take the ball out of its own running back's hands, while putting all the pressure on whomever is under center. It had been Jake Locker, but he's ruled out due to a dislocated non-throwing shoulder. Thus, 14-year veteran Matt Hasselbeck will step in.
Won't matter, though, cause the Vikings' defense ranks eighth in the NFL, and remember, just shut down the San Francisco 49ers not too long ago. No reason to think it can't stifle the much-worse Titans.
I'll lay it with the Vikings.
4♦ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Matt Rivers
2-0 with my free plays on Saturday, as both Cincinnati and NC State come up winners.
Now a 33-16 run with my comp plays.
For Sunday, free play winner in the NFL will be the Under in the Seattle-Carolina contest.
Something has to give today, as Carolina has been involved in a few high-scoring affairs, while Seattle has been involved in predominantly lower scoring contests through their first quarter of the long campaign.
Seattle's defense has been tip-top this year, allowing a grand total of just 58 points in their first four games. Not surprisingly ALL four of Seattle's games this season have stayed Under the total. With the Seahawks offense averaging just 17 1/2 points per game, I do not look for there to be too many points accumulated in this meeting at Carolina.
As for the Panthers, their last home game against the Giants did hold Under, and they have actually split at 2-2 in the Over/Under department this year. The Carolina offense will be put to the test in this one, and I just do not see many points being tallied.
Seattle makes it 5-for-5 Under the total this year.
2♦ SEATTLE-CAROLINA UNDER
Tony Karpinski
Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals
Miami has been playing tough and strong on defense only giving up 20/gm over the last 3 games. The Dolphins can play tremendous versus the running game, but it’s the passing game they need to worry about much more. Miami is going to give up a load of yards to Dalton and Co. Cincinnati is sitting nice at 3-1, after 3 of their first 4 games were on the road. Cincinnati can score the ball and will pass all over these Dolphins. The Bengals win and get the cover at home.
Dave Price
Atlanta Falcons -3
The Falcons have been an extremely reliable favorite under coach Mike Smith. During his watch, the Falcons are 26-14 ATS when laying points. They have won by an average score of 26.5 to 18.0 in these games. Atlanta is coming off its first ATS defeat of the season, but it is an impressive 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss. Atlanta's defense was bad last week, but Washington's has struggled all season. Besides, the Falcons are on an impressive 27-9 ATS run in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. The Redskins are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Take the Falcons.