Ray Monohan
Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots
Play: Denver Broncos
Tom Brady and Peyton Manning meet for the 13th time head-to-head today in a late afternoon game.
Watch for huge performances from pass-rushing specialists Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller and cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter today to keep this game close. I also expect Willis McGahee, who leads active players in 100-yard rushing games with 32 will help the Broncos control the clock keeping Brady, Welker, Gronk, and Ridley off the field.
The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New England. The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Patriots win this won straight up but we like Manning to keep it close.
Jeff Alexander
Cleveland Browns +8.5
The Browns, who played the Eagles, Bengals and Ravens tough, are showing value catching over a touchdown here. The Browns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road contests and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The Giants are on a 0-4 ATS slide vs. teams with a losing record, and they are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road mark. Plus, road underdogs or pickems that check into a matchup off a road loss are an impressive 159-99 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario are 2-0 ATS this season. Bet the Browns.
Eric Williams
Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Green Bay Packers
The Indianapolis Colts have a nice future in front of them thanks to quarterback Andrew Luck, but that time clearly is not now - and certainly not against the far more experienced - and desperate - Green Bay Packers in this contest!
The Packers need to make a statement after getting off to a fairly slow start on offense this season and now's the perfect time for them to do just that!
Green Bay has gone 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last half-dozen games in the month of October.
The Colts are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games and I believe they're going to suffer another home loss in this one!
Michael Alexander
Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is coming off a dominating performance versus the Jets as they had a 26-9 first down edge in a 30 point cover while racking up 5 takeaways. San Francisco has a +159½ point ATS advantage in their last 23 games.
Bills got shelled by the Patriots after a 21-7 lead turned into a 52-28 loss. RB's Spiller and Jackson combined for just 62 rushing yards. Their defense allowed 247 rushing yards.
San Francisco is 9-3 ATS versus .500+ non division opponents.
Chip Chirimbes
Cleveland Browns vs. NY Giants
Play: NY Giants
All I keep hearing from the radio guys around Las Vegas and the nation in that the Browns are playing people tough because the Ravens didn't separate themselves from Cleveland last Thursday night. Yeah, we'll I remember the Bills going into Cleveland and shutting this team down. The Giants are coming off that Sunday nightwear against the Eagles wand this will be 'cake' for them. Lay it!
Greg Daraban
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Miami must Travel again again this time Cincinnati and the Bengals are not getting much respect for a team that is 3-1 under QB Dalton. Dolphins improving each week with QB Tanneyhill running the show. Bengals make it 4-1 with a win today. Take Cincinnati
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +195 over N.Y. YANKEES Series Bet
Incredibly, since 1995, the Yanks have missed the playoffs just one time. They have been knocked out in the first round eight of those 15 years. Most recently, the Yanks were knocked out in round one in four straight years from 2004 to 2007 and were also beaten last season by the Tigers. This is a team that was built to make the playoffs but a lack of pitching once they get here has been their downfall. The same could hold true this year. Outside of C.C. Sabathia, every other starter in the Yanks rotation is a potential liability. Of course the same can be said for the Orioles but they have an outstanding bullpen and closer and they’re not the team taking back close to 2-1 odds.
The Orioles just won’t go away. They’re not just happy to be here. They come to the park expecting to win and they usually do. Every time you expect the “magic” to end, it doesn’t. This is a young and dangerous team that is playing with house money under no pressure whatsoever.
We could take the Orioles in game one today at +144. However, +195 in a five game series sure looks better should they win game one. Should they go onto win game 2, they become a big favorite and we could hedge. If they lose the first game, our bet is still alive. The tag on the Orioles is simply too big to ignore.
ST. LOUIS +100 over Washington
Props to all the great pitchers that won 20 games, nearly won 20 games or that were consistently good all season long. Adam Wainwright didn’t win 20 games. In fact, he lost 13. However, he’s as good as any pitcher in the league and should never be a dog in his own yard.
Although he had a high ERA in early May, Wainwright's skills showed no effect from his 2011 Tommy John surgery. Now in early October, Wainwright's season is even more impressive. Wainwright has 184 K’s in 199 innings, an elite 51% groundball rate an xERA that is within a couple of points of his previous lofty perches. While strand rate and 1H hr/f have done in Wainwright's ERA, everything else screams "elite." The fact that his 2H has been even better means that, tough as it is to imagine, he even has more upside. This guy is as elite as any in the business.
Gio Gonzalez is also elite, making this a pretty sweet pitcher’s duel. However, this is a first for many of the Nats, including Gonzalez’s first appearance in the playoffs. It’s also worth noting that 10 of Wainwright’s 14 wins came at home and the combination of the Cardinals and Wainwright in their own backyard is too strong to pass up on without having to spot anything.
MTi Sports
Titans / Vikings Under 44
We had Tennessee over last week because they were a big dog and the game was likely to get sloppy. Here, the Titans think that they have a chance to win and will feature Chris Johnson. The Vikings won with defense on the road and they should do the same here. This line is too high, we're on the UNDER.
Minnesota is 0-23-1 OU when they are off a TD-plus cover in which they forced at least five punts -- as long as they were not up by 28-plus points after the first quarter in that TD-plus cover.
This trend makes good handicapping sense. When the Vikings are off a performance in which they were at least a touchdown better than expectations in which their defense forced their opponent to punt, they stick with what works -- their running game and their defense and this points to a low scoring game.
Tennessee is 0-4 OU when they are off a game as a road dog in which they rushed the ball for at least 50 more yards than their season-to-date average.
This is not a Ponder-vs-Hasslebeck match-up. It is a Peterson-vs-Johnson match-up.
Why would Minnesota ask Christian Ponder to do anything more than hand off to Peterson most of the time?? Take the UNDER.
MTi's FORECAST: Tennessee 17 MINNESOTA 16
Joe Gavazzi
Chicago -5.5
It's a bad situation for the Bears, but I will allow the fundamentals to guide me in favoring their side. Chicago is in a road/road situation following a MNF victory against the Cowboys 34-18. However, in that contest, the Cowboys outgained the Bears 430-360 and Chicago profited from 5 Tony Romo INTs. With a bye on deck, it's a good spot to be fat against a 1-3 SU Jag team. Bears should easily shut down what Jax likes to do best with a run defense that allows just 67/3.6. That unit keys notably the better stop force. Look for big day on the ground from the Bears against the Jags defensive front allowing 150/4.3. This has been a profitable spot for the Bears of late who are 5-1-1 ATS RF covering by an average of double-digits.
Andre Gomes
Browns / Giants Over 43
It may seem a bit risky to take the over in a game involving the Browns, however I believe we have the right conditions in here to watch a relatively high scoring game. The Giants offense has been at a decent level this season, especially on the passing game with Eli Manning being able to throw the football reasonably well to his receivers with the help from his quality Offensive Line. Cleveland has been struggling on their secondary and their pass rush isn't good enough to trouble the Giants' OL, therefore I believe Eli Manning will have a good game today. In terms of the running game, Ahmad Bradshaw has been struggling, but Andre Brown is looking very good on this early season. With the Giants having a good passing game, their running game is their backup plan and they should be able to do enough today against a Browns run defense that isn't terrible, but isn't top notch neither.
The Browns offense should also be able to have some decent offense in here. Their rookie QB Brandon Weeden has been struggling a bit with turnovers, but he has been able to give the team decent yardage, something that should happen again today against a team that has been struggling on secondary and that will surely be missing starting CB Jayron Hosley and S Kenny Phillips plus CB Corey Webster is also questionable for today. The Giants' pass rush has been disappointing as well this season, especially considering what they did in last season's playoffs, therefore I believe Cleveland will have a decent performance on their passing game today. In terms of the running game, rookie RB Trent Richardson has been a bit disappointing this season, however the Giants have been struggling on their run defense this season, therefore I wouldn't be surprised if Trent Richardson has some kind of a breakout game today.
Even with some light rain predicted for today's game, I believe both teams should be able to have a decent offensive production in here. The Giants have a good passing game and Cleveland has been struggling on their secondary, while the Giants have injury problems on their secondary and have been struggling on their run defense, two issues that Cleveland should take advantage from that today to score a respectable amount of points. I projected this game to have a totals line of 47 points, therefore I have enough edge to take the Over in here.
Real Time Animal
Cincinnati -3.5
I think Miami is getting way too much respect here. The Dolphins are 1-3 despite playing a schedule that's included Oakland, the Jets, and Arizona, who is a complete fraud having been out-gained in all five games this year. Cincinnati has won three straight and plays in perhaps the best division in football with Baltimore and Pittsburgh. The Bengals have scored 27 or more points in three straight. Who knows how the Dolphins will respond in a tough environment coming off back-to-back overtime defeats and we have a young team playing their 2nd consecutive road game with a change of surface. The five rookie quarterbacks including Tannehill are 6-19 SU so far. I was kind of impressed with Cincinnati's defense last week at Jacksonville. Despite playing 2nd consecutive road game in as many weeks, the Bengals held Maurice Jones Drew and the Jaguars to 69-yard rushing and just 212 total yards. Remember the week before Andy Dalton out-passed RG III 385-168 in the nation's capitol. Miami is #30 in pass defense. Plus Cincinnati is #2 in sacks so far so Tannehill will be under the gun especially if the Dolphins can't run. The Benglas have recorded six sacks in back-to-back games and obviously getting Carlos Dunlap back has made a world of difference. Cincinnati opened at -5 1/2 and the line really fell. I don't see it. Dolphins have played way over their heads but are still 1-3 and facing what I consider a very soft schedule. Oakland, the Jets, and Arizona figure to be lousy the rest of the year in my opinion.
NFL Game of the Week - Chicago Bears (-5.5) *5 Units
Service Plays
San Fran 49ers (-10) *3 Units
Green Bay Packers (-7) *3 Units
-Fo Bros