Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, October 9

Sam Martin

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Having the Eagles as a three-point road favorite at Buffalo means this line is based purely on hype. It's obviously not based on game results, as the Eagles are just 1-3 on the year with outright losses against Falcons, Giants, and 49ers despite being listed as the favorite in all three games, and Buffalo would have been a perfect 4-0 if the didn't meltdown late against the Bengals last week. But Buffalo can and should win this game outright base on their offensive numbers, and with Philly possibly caught looking ahead to a conference showdown with Washington next week, we'll gladly take the points with the Bills here. 5* Play on Buffalo.

Carlo Campanella

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -1½

Philadelphia spent a lot of money on free agents during the off-season and is taking a lot of heat after dropping to 1-3 after losing a huge lead last Sunday and allowing San Francisco pull the 24-23 upset. Winning the NFC East is a tough assignment and the Eagles are now in a must win situation, knowing that a 1-4 start will keep them from winning the Division title. Buffalo started out a shocking 3-0, including a huge upset of New England, but "bounced" against Cincinnati last weekend. With Buffalo's defense allowing 89 points (35,31 & 23) points the last three weeks, this is the perfect opponent for the fast scoring Eagles offense to beat. Combine a must win situation and a Bill's defense allowing 405 yards per game and we're laying the points as we find the Eagles at 13-5 ATS on the road following a loss as Favorites behind Head Coach Andy Reid.

Spartan

Cincinnati Bengals +2½

Last week I made a lot of my regular clients cringe when I put out a release on the Bengals. Sometimes it's the, and I'll be kind here, less than marquee games that provide our best opportunities. While this is not the best play on the board, that's my Triple Star, this is a game worth making a small wager on. Look guys, I watched Blaine Gabbert here up close at Missouri both in practices and games, many times. Gabbert would have been much better off going somewhere with a winning, established team and slowly learning the ropes. He should be carrying around a clipboard right now and absorbing information and not body shots from NFL linebackers. Once again, I'll be kind, Gabbert is no Rambo when it comes to combat, he needs max protection and has this thing about getting knocked around. Here we have two rookie NFL QB's squaring off with Andy Dalton and Gabbert. I'll take Dalton getting some points. Want a trend to support the cause? The stubborn fact is Marvin Lewis's Bengals have been a winning proposition as an underdog as they are currently on a 15-6 run when taking the field in the role of underdog. I think pretty much everyone knows Jack Del Rio is secretly getting moving bids from Atlas Van Lines. In my view fellas the Bengals are the smart place to put our money here.

Stephen Nover

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
PICK: Minnesota Vikings -2.5

Are the Vikings just plain bad or unlucky? The answer is a combination of both.

The Vikings are indeed bad but they are not Indianapolis or St. Louis bad. They have playmakers on both sides of the ball.

Jared Allen, Minnesota's great pass rusher, has five sacks in his last two games. He can disrupt a still-out-of-rhythm Kevin Kolb especially on a fast home track.

Adrian Peterson is in the argument for best running back and Percy Harvin is a game-breaker. The Vikings rank third in rushing and fifth in run defense. The Cardinals, by contrast, rate 15th in each of those key categories.

The Vikings have led in all four of their games. They've blown three double-digit halftime leads. These leads came against San Diego, Tampa Bay and Detroit. The combined record of those teams is 10-2.

But the major part of this handicap is a fade against the Cardinals, who have lost 10 of their last 11 road matchups. The Cardinals are 3-8 ATS during this span. The pointspread is so low that the Cardinals just about have to win this game straight-up to cover.

This is Arizona's third road game in four weeks. It's an early start time, too, for the Cardinals.

The Vikings are due. Their track record in this spot is good. They are 8-3-1 ATS the past 12 times they've been home chalk.

Minnesota finally gets the right opponent at home to take its frustrations out on.

Matt Fargo

Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -3

One of the early season questions going around the NFL is 'What's wrong with the Steelers?'. Coming into the season they were a Super Bowl contender for obvious reasons but after four games and a 2-2 record, people are writing them off already. Granted it is not the start Pittsburgh envisioned but there are not that many problems right now that are affecting the Steelers. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has a sprained foot and the offensive line is under criticism but things could be worse. Tennessee is off to a surprisingly strong 3-1 start. The Titans dropped their opener against Jacksonville but have won three in a row since although they were not that impressive in my opinion. They took care of Baltimore rather easily but the Ravens were in a huge letdown spot. They defeated the Broncos at home by just a field goal and last week, they took out the Browns by 18 points but were outgained by 84 total yards in the process. Tennessee is one of a number of overrated 3-1 teams. Three of the Steelers first four games came on the road and while it is not an excuse for the slow start, it certainly does not help. They were killed by turnovers in their opener against the Ravens so that blowout final score is misleading. They defeated a bad Colts team by only a field goal on national television but outgained them by 167 total yards. Last week they lost to an improved Houston team but were outgained by only 22 yards. The lone home game was a rout over Seattle as they won the yards battle by 257 yards. Scoring has been the issue for Pittsburgh and looking at margins, the Steelers are getting outscored by 2.0 ppg. Conversely, the Titans are outscoring opponents by 8.0 ppg. However, Tennessee is outgaining opponents by 47.4 ypg while the Steelers are outgaining opponents by 82.2 ypg so that should tell you something. Tennessee has the top scoring defense in the NFL but Pittsburgh is not far behind and the Steelers possess the second best overall defense in the league, allowing just 277 ypg. Pittsburgh is a very public team and it gets a lot of press. When it gets bad press, which is the case this week, the public jumps off and starts jumping on the bandwagon of the opponent. The Steelers are part of a very solid contrarian situation. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a win by 14 points or more as an underdog after the first month of the season. This situation is 27-7 ATS (79.4 percent) since 1983. Look for the Steelers to quiet their critics. 3* (418) Pittsburgh Steelers

Marc Lawrence

Game: Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
Prediction: Oakland Raiders

The Texans stepped up to the plate and homered last week in a pivotal showdown with the Steelers, thus asserting themselves as legit. The next test comes today with Houston looking dead ahead to a home-loss revenger with the Ravens. Game Five affairs have foiled Houston in the past where they are 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS all-time. The Texans are also 2-7 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in their franchise history in games against non-division foes off a SU and ATS loss. Ouch! While the Raiders dropped a 31-19 decision to the high-flying Patriots last week, the 419 yards the surrendered amounted to New Englands low this season. Go ahead and grab the points in this letdown-look-ahead deluxe sandwich. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oakland.

Nelly

Cincinnati + over Jacksonville

The Bengals have allowed the fewest yards in the entire NFL this season, sitting at 2-2 despite grim predictions from most. The Bengals allow just 86 yards per game on the ground and the offense led by rookies has been better than most expected though there are still some limitations. Jacksonville is 0-2 with rookie Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars are getting virtually no positive results in the passing game. Jacksonville has played a tough schedule but there has not been enough proof that this team will be able to finish a game and cover as favorites.

James Patrick Sports

Chargers vs. Broncos

This could wind up being a very important game in Kyle Orton’s season – and career. If Orton has a sub-par game and Denver enters its bye week (1-4), the cry for Tim Tebow to take over at quarterback could become too loud for even coach John Fox to ignore. And with Orton becoming a free agent at season’s end, he cannot afford to enter the market as a backup. The Broncos are (11-5-2) ATS in their last (18) games as a home underdog and the Chargers are (1-6-1) ATS in their last (8) games as a road favorite. James Patrick's Sunday complimentary selection is on Denver Broncos.

Steve Merril

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
PICK: New Orleans Saints -6.5

The New Orleans Saints come off an easy 23-10 win in Jacksonville; the Saints rolled up 503 yards of total offense while allowing the Jags just 274 yards of offense. New Orleans will now travel to Carolina for their second consecutive road game, and normally this isn’t a spot we like to lay points. But the fact that the Saints won without expending too much effort and energy last week makes us more inclined to back the road favorite here, especially since they are the superior team. Carolina and Cam Newton have been a good story this season, but they’ve played only one good team (Packers) so far. They lost that game 30-23 despite putting up 475 yards of offense and being +3 in turnovers.

While Newton continues to impress with his big passing numbers, the Panthers’ defense does not. They are giving up 5.2 yards per rush and allowing opponents to throw for 8.5 yards per pass. Overall, the Panthers are allowing opponents a whopping 6.7 yards per play. Those numbers are not good to have when facing the potent New Orleans’ offense that is averaging 32 points per game and 454 yards of total offense per game. The Saints are averaging 6.5 yards per play on offense so Carolina’s defense is in for a long afternoon.

New Orleans’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams usually calls an aggressive game, so we expect that here against a rookie quarterback. The Saints’ defense got after rookie Blaine Gabbert last week and he was on the run all game; Gabbert completed just 16 of his 42 passes for 196 yards. Williams will once again force an inexperienced quarterback to beat him with his arm, but we just don’t see Newton being able to trade points with the Saints for a full 4 quarters. Look for New Orleans to notch their second straight road win on Sunday.

Teddy Covers

Seahawks @ Giants
PICK: Over 43.5

Teddy's red hot right now, making big money for himself and his clients. He came into the weekend riding a perfect 5-0 sweep over the past four days for himself and his clients. He's locked and loaded with four NFL guaranteed picks, including a top rated Big Ticket selection! Don’t miss out on a single ‘right side’ cash!

The Giants are the epitome of an Over team these days, but the betting markets are lagging behind those current realities. The G-men have scored 28, 29 and 31 points in their last three ballgames. Eli Manning is in great current form, especially with a healthy Mario Manningham lining up on the other side of deep threats Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. The absence of plodding fullback Brandon Jacobs this week only opens things up for the more explosive Ahmad Bradshaw. Seattle’s defense got torched by the Falcons balanced attack last week, and they’ve allowed 57 points in their two previous road games. No surprise here if the Giants approach or exceed the four TD mark again on Sunday.

But the Giants defense remains a fundamentally flawed unit, bad news against a Seahawks passing game that has suddenly found some rhythm. Tavaris Jackson made plays with both his legs and his arm last week; avoiding any sacks while throwing for more than 300 yards. Sidney Rice has been a difference maker for Pete Carroll’s squad: 11 catches for 188 yards in his first two games back on the field. The Giants secondary remains a bottom tier, injury riddled unit, primed for continued struggles against the Seahawks suddenly resurgent offense. Take the Over.

Steve Janus

Indianapolis Colts -2

The Colts come in 0-4, but have showed no signs of quit even though they are playing without Peyton Manning. They have had a chance to win each of their last two games, and I believe they are going to finally break through with that elusive win against the Chiefs. Kansas City just got their first win of the season last week against the winless Vikings. The Chiefs have also been hit extremely hard with injuries. While they didn't lose a player of the caliber of Manning, they lost three of their top players in Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki.

The Colts offense wasn't great against the Buccaneers last week, but have continued to get better with each game. On the other side of the ball, the Colts defenders are playing inspired football. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Roberth Mathis are two big reasons why. These two have put outstanding pressure on the quarterback. I look for Freeney and Mathis to give the Chiefs offense fits all game, and likely force Kansas City into at least a couple turnovers.

Anytime you have an average offensive team (Colts), who average 4.9 to 5.4 yards per play against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP), after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games, you want to have your money on the average offensive team. This system is an impressive 35-12 since 1983.

Jimmy Moore

Oakland @ Houston
Pick: Oakland +6

Oakland has been impressive so far this season and they get to take on Houston after a very satisfying win over Pittsburgh and a look ahead to Baltimore. The Raiders have been competitive in every game and with some more motivation to "win one for Al" look for them to get this cover if not outright win.

MTi Sports

Jets at Patriots
Play: Over

The Patriots are 13-0 OU (+7.7 ppg) when they won by double-digits on the road last week. The Jets are 9-0 OU (+10.8 ppg) on grass, 8-0 OU (+9.5 ppg) as a dog the week after a straight up loss in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average and 6-0 OU on the road the week after they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average as a dog, flying over by an average of 17.9 ppg. Consider these two OVER the total.

SPORTS WAGERS

PITTSBURGH –3 over Tennesse

The Steelers have more casualties than a Quentin Tarantino flick. Ben Roethlisberger is not having a good year so far with only three passing touchdowns and 14 sacks already. He has always had the tendency to hold the ball too long but now with an offensive line that cannot stop the rush, Big Ben is getting hit even more. The Titans are an early surprise but we think it may be window dressing. While QB Matt Hasselbeck is being praised, we need look back to just last week where, in a 31-13 bashing of the Browns, the quarterback completed a mere 10 passes. Let’s not forget that Tennessee lost to the lowly Jaguars, beat the Ravens in a letdown spot and barely squeezed by the visiting Broncos. They have yet to face a quality QB. Steelers won their lone home game by a 24-0 count and are now back here after two on the road. The Steelers two wins have come against the Colts, barely, and the Seachickens. So, in handicapping the game, it’s hard to make an argument for the Steelers. However, this is a prime example of when to buy low and sell high and when everyone is jumping off, that’s the perfect time to jump on and that’s precisely the reason for this wager. Play: Pittsburgh –3 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Tampa Bay +129 over SAN FRANCISCO

Wow, did you see that comeback by the Niners against Philly last week!? INCREDIBLE! San Fran is coming on big time, aren’t they? Relax folks. While the 49ers appear to be better under the guidance of first-year coach Jim Harbaugh, there is still much to be desired. Defensively, San Francisco allowed more than 500 yards to both the Cowboys and the Eagles. Offensively, the team ranks 28th in the league and has had just one game where it exceeded 300 yards of total offense. This San Fran team is a complete fraud so don’t buy into the hype. After Bucs less than impressive showing on Monday night, this one looks appealing to the masses but don’t bite. Tampa’s defensive front is a stout unit that can stifle the Niners’ anaemic running game, forcing the incapable passing game to overcome. Tampa is a competent road team with nine wins in last 11 away, including a 21-0 shutout last season on this very field. The Bucs are on the rise and they’re hands down the superior team here. 49ers get exposed and the bleeding may not stop. Play: Tampa Bay +129 (Risking 2 units).

CAROLINA +6½ over New Orleans

The Saints are a funny bunch as they often play to the level of their opponent. Just last week, they weren’t at their best but disposed of the unarmed Jaguars. A similar effort may produce a different outcome here. The Panthers have been rejuvenated with the arrival of Cam Newton. Carolina’s offense is averaging 346 yards per game and Newton’s energy has them fighting until the final gun. The Panthers are 1-3 but have lost by one touchdown or less each time. Cam Newton left his one rain-soaked bad game and went right back to dropping jaws in Chicago. What to think? Without being yet another glowing discussion of Cam Newton, what to think? The best rookie quarterback in NFL history was Peyton Manning. Hands down - big gap between him and all other rookie quarterbacks. Peyton Manning versus Cam Newton for their first four games: Manning - 992 pass yds, 3 TDs, 11 int., rush 37 yds 0 TDs… Newton - 1386 pass yds, 5 TDs, 5 int., rush 133 yds 4 TDs. Where is this headed? Newton is on pace for 5544 pass yards, 20 TDs, 532 rush yards and 16 more TDs. As far apart Manning was with all other rookie quarterbacks, Newton is that much better than Manning so far. Of course that’s just food for thought but the Panthers are no pushovers and an outright win here is a distinct possibility. Play: Carolina +6½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

THE REST: (with no wagers)

Chiefs (1-3) at Colts (0-4)

If an 0-4 team can have a letdown, this might be the spot. After competing in consecutive prime-time games, against superior opposition, the Colts are suddenly being asked to win and to do so by a margin. Chiefs getting incrementally better while Indy’s smallish, overworked defence is wearing down already. TAKING: CHIEFS +2½

Cardinals (1-3) at Vikings (0-4)

Hosting the Bucs and Lions is a tougher assignment than having these Cardinals stopping by for a visit. Arizona has just one win in past 11 away and its defense is leaky enough for Minnesota to take advantage. Vikings have been competitive in all their games and appear ready to win. TAKING: VIKINGS –2½

Eagles (1-3) at Bills (3-1)

The records shown above are not a typo. While most thought it would be the other way around, the Bills have proven to be worthy whereas the Eagles are more like a lame ‘ X Factor’ act. Buffalo among top rushing teams while Eagles giving up a 30th ranked 140 yards per game. TAKING: BILLS +2½

Raiders (2-2) at Texans (3-1)

Raiders up to their old tricks, taking too many penalties and having to play catch up as a result. However, Oakland remains diligent and that may be enough against a Houston team whose mental makeup has never been great and will now be asked to perform without its best player. TAKING: RAIDERS +6

Bengals (2-2) at Jaguars (1-3)

The Bengals defensive line is more than capable of limiting Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Then what? Cincinnati on a high after comeback win over previously unbeaten Bills and young, talented squad can carry that momentum into this contest against this lame host. TAKING: BENGALS +2½

Seahawks (1-3) at Giants (3-1)

The Giants have been living a charmed life with unlikely wins in both Philadelphia and Arizona over past couple of weeks. G-men may suffer a mental break here against this woeful traveler and that could prove costly when spotting a big number. Seahawks feeling slightly better after 2nd half offensive output last week. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +10

Jets (2-2) at Patriots (3-1)

Have the Jets fallen off this much? The answer is a resounding yes and then some. New York’s offensive line is a mess, resulting in a poor running game, resulting in ‘off the Mark’ Sanchez being forced to throw. Patriots can score in bundles while Jets lack the ability to counter attack. Let’s also not forget that the Jets knocked off the Pats in last year’s playoffs. Jets have always done a lot of smack talking but this season they can’t back it up. Patriots want this one badly, perhaps more than any other and will show no pity. TAKING: PATRIOTS –9

Chargers (3-1) at Broncos (1-3)

While the Chargers are off to a better start than usual, the offense appears to be struggling somewhat. Perhaps the absence of sparkplug RB Darren Sproles and ‘go to’ tight end Antonio Gates affecting production. Denver happy to be home after two away and win here tightens division. TAKING: BRONCOS +4½

Packers (4-0) at Falcons (2-2)

If the Falcons have any coconuts at all, this is a chance to display them. Atlanta looking to regain some dignity and respect after being clobbered 48-21 to the Pack in last year’s post-season. Seems most have forgotten Dirty Bird’s strong home record and last season’s regular season win over Packers on this field. TAKING: FALCONS +6½

This Week’s Survivor pick:

After many requests, each week we’ll give out our survivor play of the week. These plays are straight up winners and NOT against the spread. We can’t play the same team twice in a year. Used so far: Arizona, Detroit, San Diego, Tampa Bay.

NEW ENGLAND

Why many of you may be leaning Giants, we’d be very careful about that one, as the G-Men have a history of performing badly when they’re supposed to win easy. Furthermore, they’re just not that good. Seattle is a horrible traveling club but something about this game doesn’t feel right. The next problem is that you may have used New England already and if that’s the case, we’d go Pittsburgh over Tennessee for the reasons mentioned above. Having the luxury of having the Patriots left, we’ll go with them, as they do not smack talk like the Jets and will be more prepared and focused to whack this team hard. Remember, Jets came in here during the regular season last year and were buried 45-3 and that wasn’t after they knocked Pats out of playoffs. Mark Sanchez v Tom Brady says it all.