Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Philadelphia -2 over BUFFALO: The Buffalo Bills are 3-1 on the year, but they are really doing it with smoke an mirrors. This team has 28 players on it that were 5th round draft choices are lower, their defense is a mess and yes they have put up a ton of points, but three of the defense they faced are ranked 32nd, 29th and 22 in the league. The Buffalo defense has struggled this year, as they are 27th overall (405 ypg), 25th vs the run (130 ypg) and 25th vs the pass (275 ypg). The Bills are also 28th in the league in yards per play allowed, at 6.8. Now in comes a desperate Philadelphia team with an offense they can really exploit this bad Buffalo defense. The Eagle's come in 4th in total offense (435 ypg) 2nd in Rushing offense (163 ypg) and the have averaged 6.4 yards per play, which is 5th.The Bills have allowed big plays all year and the Eagles offense has shown that they can make a ton of big plays. The Eagels offense hasn't been their problems this year as turnover's and 4th quarter collapses by their defense have done them in, plus the fact that Vick was injured in 2 of their losses. This is now desperation time for the Eagles and I really expect their best effort of the year in this one vs a Buffalo team that has really overachieved so far.I see the Eagles having both the offensive and defensive edges in this one even though this is in Buffalo they will get that much needed win here. The Eagles are 184 ATS on the road after a loss to a NFC opponent, while the bills are 4-10-1 ATS as a dog vs the NFC. Philly by 7+ here. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play on any road favorite of 3 or less off a SU loss as a home favorite of 7 or more. This system has gone 18-4-1 since 1995.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
New Orleans -6.5 over CAROLINA: A couple of big time trends to start this play off with. The host has gone 2-18 ATS in this series, while the SU winner has gone 26-6 ATS. All that offense the Carolina Panthers have and yet they are just 1-3 on the year and that's cause their defense can't stop anyone. The Panthers do rank 14th in total defense but they are 25 in points allowed, giving up 25.5 ppg. The Saints have been trying to run the ball more this year and they have put up 119 ypg (10th) and 4.5 ypc (7th). That is really not good news for Carolina as the have the 31st ranked rushing defense (143.8 ypg) and they have allowed teams 5.2 ypc, which is 29th in the league. I really look for the Saints to pound the ball early to get those LB's up and then bam over the top for some big plays and easy scores. Carolina can score yes, but the Saints play a pressure style defense with plenty of blitzs and I'm just not sure Newton will be ready for that. The Saints offense has been nearly unstoppable and the Panthers aren't the team to stop them this week. Carolina will put up some points, just not enough to stay close in this one. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Go Against any home team off a SU road loss if they outgained their foe by 150+ yards in that loss. System is 26-11-1 since 1994.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Minnesota/ Arizona Over 45.5: This game should be good for a few points. Minnesota's defense has been very porous this year as they rank 28th in that category, allowing 286 ypg, plus they have allowed team 7.4 yards per pass att, which is 23rd in the league. The Arizona Pass defense isn't much better as they have allowed 282 ypg through the air, which ranks 26th in the league and they have allowed 7.5 ypa, which is 24th in the league. Now even a struggling Donovan McNabb should be able to move the ball on this defense. Adrian Petersen is what this offense is all about though and they do check in ranked 3rd in rushing and I look for him to gain plenty today on a Arizona run defense is just middle of the pack at best. Adrian should have a good showing vs them today, which will open up the passing game a bit. The Arizona passing game has been solid, racking up 243 ypg so far, which is 61 ypg more than last year and they should have a good game on this fast track vs a Minnesota defense that has one of the worst secondaries in the league, I see the Minnesota offense opening it up in this one, while Kolb an company will put up plenty points of their own. I expect around 51 in this one. KEY TRENDS--- The OU is 7-1 before Arizona has a bye and 10-3 when they face the NFC North, while the OU is 28-12 when the Vikes take on a team that allows 235+ passing ypg.
HOUSTON -6 over Oakland: The Raiders seem to be headed in the right direction this year, but this team still has some work to do. Sure the offense can run all over ya like a Sherman Tank, but this defense is vulnerable and they still commit far too many penalties (last in league). The Raiders are a great running team and they lead the league in that department, at 178 ypg, but on defense this team cannot stop the run as they ranked 29th in yards allowed at 138 ypg and they are dead last in the league in rushing ypc allowed. at 5.9. Now they must take on the 4th ranked rushing offense in Houston (149 ypg), with a healthy Arian Foster. LY when these teams met Foster put up 187 yards from scrimmage and had a 9.4 yards per touch average, while Houston held McFadden to just 47 yards and a 3.9 ypa in the game. Foster will upon be called even more in this one, as they will be without wideout Andre Johnson. As I stated, the Raiders are tops in the league in rushing, but I feel that Houston can contain that ground game a bit and make Campbell try and beat them and that will not be good for the raiders as Houston owns the 10th rated pass defense in the league (214 ypg). The Radiers can run the ball, but so can Houston, so that's a wash. After that though all the edges point to Houston as they have the better overall offense, the better defense and they don't beat themselves with dumb mistakes like the Raiders. Look for Houston to win by 10+ here over a Raiders that just won't be able to stop Foster here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
PITTSBURGH -3 over Tennessee: Big Ben has been under fire this year and he may not be at 100% for this one, but that may be a blessing in disguise as this team has lost their identity. Pittsburgh is normally a smash mouth team that relies on the run and their defense to win games, but lately they have taken to the air a bit more. Big Ben at less than 100% will mean that Pitt should go back to doing what they do best. Tennessee has overachieved vs some poor defenses recently, but this is not a poor defense. Pitt at home, needing a win with a short number should be an easy win for us. KEY TREND--- Pitt is 31-13 ATS vs teams with a winning pct of 75% or higher since 1992.
Cincinnati/ Jacksonville under 37.5: Quick name the league's top defense. Give up? Yep it's the Bengals and now they will be facing a Jax team that has been held to 10 points or less 3 times so far. The Jacksonville offense is 31st overall (264 ypg) and 31 is yards per play at 4.3. This is not a team that has a lot of big plays or quick scores in their offense. The are a grind it out take time off the clock kinda offense. The Bengals offense has surprised a bit this year, but they are still ranked 20th overall and they will be facing a Jags defense that is 12th overall, allowing 335 ypg. The Jags also don't give up many big plays as they have allowed just 5.4 yards per play this year. Both offenses are not equipped for quick strikes and with two defense that just don't surrender the quick strikes, It should translate into a game of a round 30 points.
1 UNIT PLAYS
San Diego -4 over DENVER: The Chargers pass offense should have a field day vs a bad Denver pass defense that is 23rd in the league, allowing 275 ypg. Denver also allows teams to complete 69% of their passes which is last in the league and the Chargers are a very nice 55-29 ATS vs teams that allow 61% or more since 1992. Denver is also 2-13 ATS at home vs the division, while San Diego is 13-2 ATS vs the division off a home game. San Diego rolls here.
New England/ NY Jets Under 49: The Jet's defense has not been it's normal tough self this year, but they should be up for this one vs Brady. The Patriot defense is dead last in the league, but they will be taking on a Jets offense that has sputtered thus far. I look for a lower scoring game than you would expect here. This one hits 42 tops.
Rob Vinciletti
Titans vs. Steelers
Play: Under 40
This game fits a solid totals system that plays to the under for 3-1 road teams like the Titans if they are playing in their 3rd road game and the total is 49 or less. These teams have gone under 27 of 35 times since 1980. Both team have solid defenses allowing under 300 yards per game. The last 2 years these teams have played both games have gone well under the total. The Steelers have played under in 5 of 6 at home when the total is 38.5 to 42 and 3 of the last 4 vs the AFC South. Look for this one to go under today.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Jets to once again be a thorn in the side of division-rival New England at Gillette Stadium.
Last year the teams split their regular season meetings, and then met in the playoffs with New York upsetting New England as the 9-point road underdog.
That playoff loss has this line a little inflated today. That and the fact the Jets have looked pretty bad in back-to-back road losses at Oakland and Baltimore. The good news is, the Jets are expected to get Nick Mangold back to anchor the offensive line, and that the Jets sport a winning 15-11 spread mark as the road underdog since 2007.
New England wants to reestablish that they are the team to beat in the AFC East Division, and they have gone 3-1 both straight up and against the spread this season, but their defense has just been way too yielding for me to believe they can pull away from their hated-rival this afternoon - even at home.
This game has field-goal final written all over it, so take the points as the underdog Jets keep it closer than expected.
2♦ NY JETS
Scott Spreitzer
Bengals at Jaguars
Prediction: Over
Andy Dalton is learning on the fly, but you could see this offense begin to "get it" during the second half of last week's contest against Buffalo. Dalton is starting to go through his progressions and hit 11 of 16 passes over the final two quarters. OC Jay Gruden has given Dalton his best chance for success with early down pass plays. I expect he'll continue to call this game the same way now that Dalton and his receivers are on the same page. The running game has also fared well when going to the ground attack on non-traditional running downs, keeping the opposing defense off guard. Meanwhile, I suspect Jacksonville OC Dirk Koetter will utilize his RB Jones-Drew out of the backfield on screens and dump-offs to take advantage of what's likely to be an over-aggressive Cinci defense that'll be looking to put pressure on young Blaine Gabbert. Do these things, including short passes to the TE and underneath routes to the receivers and eventually things will open up in the running game and downfield. The total is low and we'll look for the game to finish with a combined point total in the mid-40s. I'm recommending the Over between the Bengals & Jags.
Jack Jones
San Francisco 49ers -2.5
The San Francisco 49ers are showing awesome value Sunday as just a small home favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jim Harbaugh has this team playing at a high level right now. The 49ers are 3-1 with their only loss coming in overtime against the Dallas Cowboys.
The 49ers will be looking for revenge against a Tampa Bay team that beat them 21-0 at home last year. An injured Alex Smith missed that game as the 49ers were held to 189 total yards. San Francisco opened last season with five straight losses, but Smith now has the team in position to start 4-1 for the first time since 2002 - the last time it won the NFC West.
The 49ers have a two-game lead atop the division following last Sunday's stunning 24-23 comeback win in Philadelphia. Smith completed 13 of 17 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns in the second half as San Francisco rallied from a 23-3 third-quarter deficit. Frank Gore got on track against the Eagles, rushing for a season-high 127 yards on only 15 carries. He also scored the game-winning touchdown.
San Francisco's run defense is coming off a superb showing, holding Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy, the NFC's leading rusher through the first three weeks, to 18 yards on nine carries. The 49ers really have a chance to get their offense going this week against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 368 total yards/game despite playing a pretty soft schedule to this point.
The 49ers are 8-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. They are outscoring their opponents 25.2 to 11.7 on average in this spot. The Bucs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. The home team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5
This is a letdown spot for Cincinnati following a big come-from-behind win last week against previously-undefeated Buffalo. Meanwhile, this is a bounce-back spot for the Jaguars, who check in off 3 consecutive straight up and ATS losses. Under coach Del Rio, Jacksonville is 9-1 ATS in home games following 2 or more consecutive losses. The Jags are bouncing back to win by an average score of 23.4 to 15.7 in these spots. Last week's victory over the Bills was impressive, but the jury is still out on the Bengals. They definitely haven't earned road favorite status yet. Consider that the Bengals are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Also, the Jaguars have won their last seven home games in this series and have gone 5-1-1 ATS in those contests. They are a solid 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog of 3.0 points or less. We'll take the Jags.
EZWINNERS
New York Giants -9.5
The Seahawks are struggling on the road once again this season as they are 0-2 straight up and against the spread away from home this year and they make the long trip to the East coast for an early kickoff game which is always tough on West coast teams. The Seattle offensive line has not been good at all. The Seahawks are not able to run the ball and they have allowed 14 sacks through their first four games. The Giants will be sending pressure at Tavaris Jackson the whole game and the New York defense has been bolstered by the return of Osi Umenyiora. On offense the powerful running game of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jennings will be too much for the Seahawks. Once they load up the box to stop the run, Eli will hit some deep shots to Hakeem Nicks and breakout receiver Victor Cruz. Seattle has the worst offensive numbers in the league and the Seahawks are going to have a hard time generating enough points to keep this one close. Lay the points.
Michael Alexander
Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans
Play: Oakland Raiders +5.5
OAKLAND is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 5.
OAKLAND is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Diego Chargers -3.5
The Bolts have won the last 3 meetings in this series and 8 of the last 10. Each of the 3 most recent wins have come by at least 5 points. It's also worth noting that San Diego is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 games against the Broncos. The Chargers are clearly the better team on both sides of the football, and I have no problem making a small wager on them against a Denver squad that is just 11-27-2 ATS in its last 40 home games. We'll lay the points.
Joe Gavazzi
San Francisco -3
Young coach, young team. Yet, T Bay is a mysterious 9-2 SU, 10-0-1 ATS away of late. But this is a tough situation for them traveling 3 hours east to west following an MNF win. Far prefer an efficient Niner offense with 11.5 YPPT rating that is translating 271 YPG into 24 PPG. Look no further than the fact they have won the battle of the turnovers every game for a cumulative plus 8 net TO margin tied for the best in the league. HC Harbaugh must again be translating his infectious positive attitude to, not only QB Smith, but the entire team. The result is 3-1 SU, 3-0-1 ATS, the only team in the league who hasn't lost to the spread. Hidden number is a defensive front allowing just 74/3.5. 21-0 revenge from a loss on this field last year provides motivation for this emerging team. Must shore up an OL that has allowed 14 sacks against a hard-charging T Bay front line.
Black Widow
1* on Kansas City Chiefs +3
The Kansas City Chiefs showed signs of life last week, beating the Minnesota Vikings 22-17 for their first win of the season. The Indianapolis Colts remain winless on the season at 0-4, and they won't be getting their first taste of victory Sunday. While terrible QB play has been the biggest reason for Indy's struggles, a long list of injuries hasn't helped, either. Defensive tackle Eric Foster suffered a partial dislocation of his right ankle, ending his season, while rookie Drake Nevis left with an undisclosed injury. Defensive captain Gary Brackett and starting safety Melvin Bullitt were already out for the year. The new injuries further weaken a Colts defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed (390.3 per game). The Buccaneers finished with 466 yards in a 24-17 victory Monday, including 192 on the ground. Indianapolis also suffered some big losses on the offensive line. Rookie first-round pick Anthony Castonzo left Monday's game with an ankle injury that is likely to keep him out Sunday, and backup Ben Ijalana suffered a torn ACL. Veteran Ryan Diem was already out with a sprained ankle. With their season rapidly falling apart, the Colts are looking elsewhere to improve their depth, signing tackles Michael Toudouze and Quinn Ojinnaka to the active roster and elevating defensive tackle Ricardo Mathews from the practice squad. The Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games a home favorite, and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. Indy is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Chiefs and the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Minnesota Vikings -3
Expect the Vikes to finally break into the win column this week against an Arizona team that is 0-2 on the road and 0-6 all-time at the Metrodome. The Cards have given up an average of 147 rushing yards in their 2 road defeats, and I don't expect them to have much success in stopping Adrian Peterson and a Minnesota running attack that ranks 3rd in the league with 157 rushing yards per game. The Vikings are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite while the Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Lay the points.
OC DOOLEY
Jets +7.5
It is easy to see why New England has been cast as a prohibitive favorite considering they are revenging a home playoff loss against the Jets one year ago in a contest that featured a lofty nine-point spread. In addition the popular Patriots have scored the most combined points (135) in the entire AFC as Tom Brady and company have put at least 31 points on the scoreboard in every outing. On the flipside the Jets defense has been shredded the past two weeks in ugly road setbacks where the opponents have put a combined 70 points on the scoreboard. To make matters even worse the Jets offense last Sunday generated only 150 total yards in a contest which saw them commit 4 different turnovers. To make a long story short last Sunday was the worst collective effort by New York since Rex Ryan has been head coach and one can simply write it off as an aberration. The key statistic to consider today is that the Jets defense still ranks NUMBER-TWO defending the pass allowing just 180 aerial yards per outing. If Tom Brady struggles against that secondary this afternoon it is going to put undo pressure on what has been a shaky Jets defense which has allowed opponents to register season-high yardage three different times. Even though New England both won-and-covered on the road last week they were actually beaten statistically by a whopping 85 yards versus Oakland. This is the second consecutive Sunday where CBS has the rights to the main late afternoon “doubleheader” telecasts and odds two straight blowouts are slim. The league’s marquee doubleheader telecast seven days ago saw Green Bay easily cover the spread a home rout of Denver. In comments prior to that contest quarterback Aaron Rodgers made it clear that the national media are ignoring the defending Super Bowl champions who sent a loud and clear message that they are still a force. The bottom line is that today’s late afternoon visitor (Jets) has much more overall talent than the Broncos which makes taking the generous points inviting. Here is a 76-PERCENT SYSTEM (37-12 past five years) which plays ON teams like the Jets whose defense has allowed 25+ points in consecutive contests, against an opponent off a double-digit straight-up win. The system favors the Jets who statistically are 167 yards better than their opposing stop-unit which makes them a dangerous “defensive underdog”
BEN BURNS
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Edmonton Oilers
PICK: Edmonton Oilers
The situation strongly favors the home underdog here. The Oilers enter the season filled with new hope. This is their season opener. Meanwhile, still without their captain, the Penguins are thousands of miles away from home and playing their third road game in four days. In addition to the possible physical fatigue factor, having already won the first two games of the trip, they could easily suffer a letdown, while looking forward to the return trip home. Looking for an underdog with a solid shot at scoring an upset? Consider Edmonton.
Scott Rickenbach
Chiefs @ Colts
PICK: Under
The Chiefs game stayed under the total for a 2nd straight week last week. Though Kansas City scored 22 points last week they were previously averaging just 9 points per game in their first three games this season. The Chiefs are 9-4 to the under the last three seasons when they face a team with a losing record. The Colts come into this game winless after falling short at Tampa Bay on Monday night. Though Indianapolis scored 17 points against the Bucs note that their two touchdowns both came on big plays. Overall, the Colts offense really didn't move the ball well and more of the same is expected here as Indy continues to struggle without Manning. Each of the last four times Indianapolis has hosted Kansas City the game has stayed under the total. Another UNDER expected here!