Jack Jones
Arizona Cardinals -2.5
This line has been down all week because the books have been waiting to hear about the status of Arizona’s starting quarterback. Early reports are that there is a good chance Carson Palmer returns this week. Backup Drew Stanton is also questionable with a concussion. Even No. 3 QB Logan Thomas may start, and after a good preseason, he would be fine. Whoever is under center should be good enough for the Cardinals to get the win and cover at home against the hapless Redskins.
Arizona is off to a 3-1 start this season due to its defense. Sure, it was blown out last week against Denver, but that was a 24-20 game in the fourth quarter before the Broncos blew it wide open in the final period. The Cardinals get to return home this week where they have played their best football. They have beaten both San Diego and San Francisco at home, which are two of the best teams in the league.
Washington (1-4) is in shambles right now as its season is pretty much over. After falling to the Giants 14-45 at home, they lost to the Seahawks 17-27 at home last week. That game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as the Redskins were outgained 307-403 for the game. Seattle’s Percy Harvin had three touchdowns called back due to penalties. The only reason the Redskins were able to hang around were because of the penalties after falling in a 17-0 hole early.
Now, the Redskins will be working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. That is a big disadvantage for them, and they will have a hard time getting emotionally ready to play this game after playing the defending champs. This is certainly a hangover spot for the Redskins, who know their playoff hopes are already pretty much crushed. They may not be able to get back up off the mat this week.
The Cardinals should have no problem moving the football and scoring on a Washington defense that is giving up 27.2 points per game on the season. They have allowed an average of 36 points and 426 yards per game over the past two weeks. There have been reports that players were joking around in the locker room after the loss to the Seahawks, so there are certainly some chemistry issues with this team right now as well.
The Redskins are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games. The Redskins are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 vs. NFC opponents. Arizona is 4-0 in its last four vs. a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Arizona is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall.
Ben Burns
Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Carolina Panthers +7
The Panthers have thrived as underdogs in this range throughout the history of their franchise.
Excluding “pushes,” they’re 57-43 ATS in 100 games, when listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range, 5-1 ATS their last six in that situation.
This could be a good spot to improve on those stats.
I successfully backed the Panthers last week. They spotted the Bears a big early lead but roared back to win and cover. They come in with some positive momentum.
I also successfully played against the Bengals last week. You probably saw them get hammered by the Patriots, on national TV.
Note that A.J. Green re-aggravated his toe Wednesday and missed Thursday’s practice entirely. While it wouldn’t be wise to rule him out completely, as of this writing, it appears likely he won’t be able to go.
That’d be a big blow to a Cincinnati offense which is likely also going to be without Marvin Jones. (He also missed Thursday’s practice.)
While he did eventually score a TD, we saw what happened when Revis and the Patriots were able to limit Green last week.
Whether or not Green goes this week, I believe the Panthers will be able to have some success in slowing down Dalton and co. Consider grabbing the points.
Ray Monohan
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +3
After a big win on Sunday night the Patriots were installed as small favourites on the road. Even though they beat the Bengals I am not sold on this team yet and I think the Bills, led by Orton, a strong running game and a stingy defense will get the victory. It might look a lot like their win over the Lions last week so taking the under might be a smart bet as well. I know Buffalo over New England might be sacrilege but I feel good about it.
DAVE COKIN
GREEN BAY PACKERS AT MIAMI DOLPHINS
PLAY: MIAMI DOLPHINS +3
If you just look at the numbers, Green Bay deserves to be favored at Miami as they’re simply the better football team. But when breaking down the actual match ups, this game gets much fuzzier in terms of picking the outright winner.
It’s just not a great matchup for the favorite. The prolific Packers offense can be contained by this Dolphins defense. Meanwhile, when the Dolphins can run the football, they’re not a bad team and that’s something they should be able to accomplish here. I’m not expecting the Fins to just race up and down the field at will. But I can’t see why they shouldn’t be able to put together a few nice drives.
There is one aspect of this game that worries me as far as Miami is concerned. The Dolphins special teams have been abysmal. They’re dead last in the NFL in special teams efficiency and that is an area where immediate improvement is mandatory. The upside here is that the coaching staff is well aware of the problems in this area, and they’ve had a couple weeks to try and rectify things thanks to the bye week.
I’m not going hung ho in making a case for Miami. Rather, I’m staying with what I’ve felt since prior to the season. That is, the Packers are good, but not elite, and are therefore getting overrated by the experts as well as the majority of the bettors. The fact that the Packers are coming into this one off a laughably easy win earns a little more value on the dog. And the truth is, I’m really not giving Green Bay any special credit for crushing a Vikings team that was forced to go with overmatched Christian Ponder under center.
This should be one of the best games of the day. It’s what I feel is a really good spot for the home team, and getting at least that field goal is a nice little cushion. If the Dolphins can avoid a major blunder on special teams, I think they have a real shot at the upset. I’ll sign on for the Dolphins plus the points.
Mike O'Connor
NY JETS (+8.5) 20 Denver 27
Off the bye, the Broncos steamrolled the Cardinals last week in a massive offensive show that Arizona just could not keep up with. Denver rolled up 570 yards at 7.7 yppl while holding Arizona to just 215 yards at 3.8 yppl (with one play accounting for 81 yards). The Broncos are playing well on both sides of the ball and face a Jets team in this game that has not played particularly well in any specific area outside of their run defense. Facing a Peyton Manning led team that is a problem. The match-up of the Broncos passing attack going up against a New York pass defense that features Dee Milliner as their best defensive back is also troubling. Couple that with a passing offense that was only able to produce 60 passing yards at 1.8 yps last week against the Chargers, and there is no way that I can back the Jets in this game. Although the Jets qualify in several situations after their shutout loss last week that are 151-91-2 and 17-3 while the Chargers qualify in negative 76-126-2 and 109-196-8 situations of their own, my model favors the Broncos in this game by nearly 17 points. Denver could let down a bit here as they are coming off of a big win at home and next week play the 49ers on Monday Night Football while the Jets should be laser-focused with their season slipping away. I’ll pass but lean to the Jets to somehow find a way to keep it within the large number.
Pittsburgh (+1) 27 CLEVELAND 23
Coming off of the greatest road comeback in NFL history has to give the Browns some confidence as they overcame a 3-28 deficit to win 29-28 in Tennessee last week. The Browns started the game flat as they were coming off of their bye week but were fortunate as starting quarterback Jake Locker was knocked out of the game in the second quarter. Still, a below average Tennessee offense managed to gain 411 total yards at 6.4 yppl and gashed Cleveland on the ground for 150 yards at 5.2 ypr. So far this season Mike Pettine’s defense has not been good—allowing an average of 419 yards at 6.5 yppl to teams that average 392 yards at 6.1 yppl and will be facing a balanced Steelers offense that has been very good both running and passing the ball.
I expect a high scoring game as both offenses have advantages versus the opposition’s defense and the Week 1 game totaled 57 points. Cleveland’s defense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per game, 28th in passing yards per game and 30th in rushing yards per game and will have to try to slow down the Pittsburgh attack without defensive end Phil Taylor who had arthroscopic knee surgery this week. They may also be without top cornerback Joe Haden who injured his hip last week. Meanwhile, the Steelers have lost several starters on defense themselves recently and have been just below average overall.
The Browns have a +3 turnover differential while the Steelers are -1 with some negative fumble luck involved. In addition, the Steelers qualify in 664-495-40 and 215-103-14 situations while the Browns qualify in a negative 194-312-17 situation that plays against them. This is the Steelers fourth road game in their last five, however, and they have a prime-time Monday night home game next week that they may be looking forward to. In addition, my ratings favor Cleveland by about three points here so I’m going to pass but lean strong to Pittsburgh.
TENNESSEE (-4) 22 Jacksonville 17
The Jaguars have been horrible this season once again and last week lost 9-17 to the Steelers while being outgained 243 yards at 4.3 yppl to 374 yards at 5.8 yppl for Pittsburgh. Jacksonville is now 0-5 SU and ATS this season after going 4-12 SU and 5-10-1 ATS last season. They have not played well really in any phase of the game although rookie QB Blake Bortles has generated some excitement. The problem is that he is still young and is playing with a poor collection of players at most spots along the offensive line and inexperienced players in the skill position groups. His turnover tendencies have also been a problem as he has tossed 6 interceptions in two and a half games while fumbling twice. I can’t consider a play on the Jaguars until I see some ability to compete and while they did show some signs of life last week, they are still a long ways away. On the other side, the Titans are also a work in progress. With a new Head Coach and inconsistent quarterback play, Tennessee has struggled this season after an outlier 26-10 beating of the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 1. Tennessee did play well early last week taking a 28-3 lead over the Browns before falling apart in a 28-29 loss, offering the Browns the greatest road comeback in NFL history. Cleveland did benefit from some luck as Jake Locker was knocked out of the game and they were also fortunate to have some favorable calls go their way.
The Titans qualify in a negative 181-253-12 situation that plays against them but my model favors Tennessee by about 6.5 points with Charlie Whitehurst (who seems likely to start) at quarterback. I don’t have much of an opinion on this game but I’ll lean with the Titans minus the points.
TAMPA BAY(+3.5) 20 Baltimore 23
The Ravens offense couldn’t get anything going in their 13-20 loss to the Colts in Indianapolis last Sunday, generating just 287 yards at 5.1 yppl while turning the ball over three times and allowing four sacks. Their offense has been about average overall so far this season but their defense has been vulnerable on the back end and last week was no exception. They’ll have to play better this week against a resurgent Buccaneers attack featuring quarterback Mike Glennon. Since taking over for an injured Josh McCown two weeks ago, Glennon engineered a comeback victory over the Steelers and almost beat the Saints last week in New Orleans. The team has responded to Glennon and the passing offense has actually been much better off with Glennon in the game. Their rushing offense has not been good, however, averaging just 90 yards at 4.3 ypr against teams that allow 128 yards at 4.8 ypr. They’ll face a good Ravens rush defense this week but they may be able to exploit the leaky Baltimore pass defense that is allowing 268 yards at 7.1 yps.
The Ravens are tied for fourth in the league with a +3 turnover differential while the Bucs are flat at 0 but Baltimore has been the beneficiary of some good fortune in the fumble luck department. I don’t have any situations in play but my ratings only favor the Ravens by about 2.5 points so I’ll lean slightly with Tampa plus the points.
Detroit (+1.5) 22 MINNESOTA 19
The Lions are 3-2 but could easily be 4-1 after last week’s 14-17 home loss to the Bills. While Buffalo kicker Dan Carpenter nailed a 58 yard field goal to win it in overtime, it didn’t need to come down to that for the Lions. Detroit has had horrendous placekicking this season and it cost them a game in this one as Alex Henery missed three field goals attempts, including a 50-yarder that sailed wide left with 21 seconds remaining. Shortly afterwards, Henery was cut and former Broncos kicker Matt Prater was signed. He should certainly be a huge upgrade as the Lions kickers had combined to hit just 4-of-12 field goals this season, including 0-of-6 from 40-49 yards. Prater was an accurate and clutch kicker with the Broncos and has made 51-of-54 field goals in the fourth quarter or overtime in his career.
However, it appears that the Lions will be without WR Calvin Johnson who has been hampered by a bad ankle the past few weeks and may have to rest for it to heal up properly. With a gimpy Johnson acting mainly as a decoy, the Lions offense has struggled recently. On top of that it looks like RB Reggie Bush will also not be available this week and without two of their top playmakers, this offense is going to take a step back. Overall, they have passed the ball well but have really struggled in the run game offensively, gaining just 86 yards at 3.5 ypr against teams that allow 109 yards at 4.3 ypr. Whoever plays at running back will have an opportunity to get the Lions rush offense back on track against a Minnesota rush defense that is allowing 123 yards at 4.5 ypr. Meanwhile, the Vikings get quarterback Teddy Bridgewater back and he should be an upgrade over Christian Ponder. However, I don’t think that the Vikings rush game will be able to get any traction against a strong Detroit rush defense that is allowing just 75 yards at 3.2 ypr. If Minnesota has trouble running the ball, they’ll be put in difficult passing situations where the Lions defensive line can tee off and make things hard on the rookie quarterback.
Detroit benefits from multiple situations that play against the Vikings that are 194-312-17, 42-99-3 and 9-43 in addition to a 102-51-4 situation as long as they are an underdog . My numbers, assuming the absence of Calvin Johnson, favor the Vikings in this game by about a point and a half. It’s not strong enough for me to make it a Best Bet, but I like the Lions.
San Diego (-7) 24 OAKLAND 13
The Chargers made easy work of the Jets last week in their 31-0 shutout in San Diego, dominating in all phases of the game. While the Chargers passing offense is one of the league’s best, their defense has been very good this season as well and last week they held the Jets to just 151 total yards at 2.7 yppl. Overall, the Jets passing offense featuring Geno Smith in the first half and Michael Vick in the second half could only generate 60 yards at 1.8 yps for the game! Overall this season the Chargers are allowing just 291 total yards at 5.0 yppl to teams that gain 318 yards at 5.2 yppl on average while giving up 13 points per game. It’s going to be difficult for the Raiders to keep up with the Chargers in this game as Oakland’s offense has been pathetic, averaging 270 yards at 4.7 yppl and just 13 points per game. They have had two weeks to prepare for this one and will be under new leadership as interim head coach Tony Sparano takes over for the fired Dennis Allen. He inherits a team that has suffered 10 straight losses by an average margin of over 13 points per game dating back to last season and will look to implement changes immediately.
While the Raiders are a work in progress, San Diego is a team that is on a roll. Since the beginning of last season the Chargers are 16-6-1 ATS, including 5-0 this year. Interestingly, these two teams faced off in Week 5 last season in Oakland and the Raiders won the game straight up 27-17 as a 5.5 point dog. I have a hard time seeing that happen this game but the Raiders are looking at the change over the bye as a positive new start and should come ready to play in this game. Unfortunately, limited talent particularly on offense is a problem and I don’t see the Raiders keeping up with San Diego in this one. I have minor situations going both ways but my ratings are strong on the Chargers, favoring them by about thirteen points. I’ll lean with San Diego minus the points.
Chicago (+3) 27 ATLANTA 28
After a 2-1 start, the Bears have dropped two straight games to fall to 2-3 on the season. Last week they handed the game to the Panthers with three turnovers in the final seven minutes in a game where they led 21-7 in the first half. They’ll look to rebound this week against a Falcons team that gave up a ten point lead of their own in a 20-30 loss last week against the Giants. Atlanta is much more difficult to beat in the Georgia Dome where they are 20-10 ATS as a favorite of 4 or less since 2008 when Matt Ryan entered the league and are 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season. However, they are struggling a bit along the offensive line as last week they had three new starters in center Peter Konz, right tackle Gabe Carimi, and left guard Harland Gunn. They may get Justin Blalock back this week but this is a serious weakness on an otherwise very good offensive unit. Fortunately for them they face a less than stellar Bears defensive squad this week that has given up 364 yards at 6.0 yppl to teams that gain 328 yards at 5.3 yppl and an average of 26 points per game. Given that the Falcons have been able to move the ball well regardless of line personnel, I expect that Atlanta will put up some points in this game. The question is whether they can keep up with a Chicago offense that has also been productive and has gained an average of 350 yards at 5.5 yppl against defenses that allow 335 yards at 5.3 yppl. Facing a Falcons defense that is allowing 408 yards at 6.1 yppl and 29 points per game themselves, the outcome will likely be decided as it often is, by turnovers. The Bears are +1 in turnover differential and have benefitted from some fumble luck while the Falcons are -2 in turnover differential with no real fumble luck involved.
The Bears qualify in some very good situations that are 96-41-4 and 79-28-3 while benefitting from a 181-253-12 situation that plays against the Falcons. My model favors Atlanta by around 6 points and given the fact that they play much better at home, this game is a pass for me with a lean to the Bears plus the points.
Washington (+3.5) 22 ARIZONA 24
Washington comes of a hard fought loss on Monday night to the Seahawks in a game where they battled back from a 0-17 deficit to make it a game in the fourth quarter. They’ll get their chance to rebound quickly as they take a trip to Arizona to face a Cardinals team that played competitively early last week against the Broncos but after losing quarterback Drew Stanton in the third quarter they just couldn’t keep up. 3rd string rookie Logan Thomas wasn’t impressive taking over after Stanton left the game, completing just 1 of 8 passes. It looked for a while this week that Thomas would get the start with Carson Palmer still recovering from a nerve issue in his shoulder and Stanton still working his way through the league’s concussion protocol. The Saturday morning update is that Stanton looks like he is cleared to play and so it will be either him or Palmer at quarterback. Whoever starts will face a Washington defense that is 6th in the league with 14 sacks but 10 of those were in one game against the Jaguars. Otherwise, the Redskins are just below average defensively overall.
Meanwhile, a Washington passing game that has plenty of weapons and has demonstrated the ability to go down the field will face a Cardinals pass defense that is allowing 302 yards at 7.4 yps to teams that gain 254 yards at 7.2 yps on average. A lot of that was generated last week as Peyton Manning shredded the Cardinals secondary for 476 yards at 9.9 yps. Arizona’s rush defense has played well, but the team took a huge hit on defense last week as well, losing their best player, defensive lineman Calais Campbell as well as linebacker Matt Shaughnessy. This was a defense that had already been missing several important pieces in the front seven and is now paper thin.
The Redskins are facing Arizona at just the right time with all of their injuries and have the ability to take advantage. Arizona qualifies in a negative 51-111-3 situation and my model favors the Cardinals by about three and a half points with Stanton at quarterback so based on that I have just a weak lean to the Redskins based on the situation.
Dallas (+8) 22 SEATTLE 28
It took overtime for the Cowboys to knock off the Texans last week in a game that they controlled the majority of the way. Dallas held a 17-7 lead in the fourth quarter before Houston scored twice in the last 2:27 of regulation to tie the game. Dallas outgained Houston 456 at 6.1 yppl to 331 at 6.0 yppl and overcame a -1 turnover differential to win. They’ll face a much bigger challenge this week as they travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. It’s strength versus strength on offense for the Cowboys as their top ranked rush offense that averages 161 yards at 5.1 ypr takes on a Seattle rush defense that allows 64 yards at 2.9 ypr. If the Cowboys can establish any sort of a running game they’ll have the opportunity to open up a good passing attack that is averaging 7.1 yps against teams that allow 6.6 yps.
While it’s well established that Seattle possesses the best defense in the league, their offense is also one of the best. The Seahawks are averaging 6.2 yppl on offense against teams that allow 5.2 yppl and match up well against a Cowboys defense that allows 6.5 yppl against teams that gain 5.9 yppl on average. Seattle is well above average both running and passing while the Cowboys are well below average defending both the run and the pass. For the Cowboys to compete they need to possess the ball and score points and they have the capability of doing both.
Dallas qualifies in a good 99-40-4 situation but my ratings favor Seattle at home by almost 11 points. I’ll side with the situation in this case as I think that Dallas has the offensive ingredients necessary to keep this one close.
NY Giants (+3) 23 PHILADELPHIA 24
Eagles QB Nick Foles has not played to the level he did last season partially as a result of the poor offensive line play but also because teams have had all offseason to scout the Eagles offense. Overall, the Eagles are averaging 5.4 yppl against teams that allow 5.8 yppl so they have been well below average. However, their scoring average is better than their efficiency stats because they have benefitted from an amazing seven defensive /special teams touchdowns this season. That rate certainly won’t continue and has made the Eagles appear to be better than they actually are.
I expect the Giants to move the ball well against a poor Eagles defense that is allowing 407 yards at 5.5 yppl to teams that gain 339 yards at 5.3 yppl with below average stats against the run as well as the pass. New York has been a bit vulnerable against the pass this season, however, allowing 265 yards at 7.3 yps to teams that average 244 yards at 6.6 yps so if the Eagles offensive line can hold up, Philadelphia should be able to move the ball effectively through the air.
The Giants recent success sets them up in a negative 8-40-3 situation that plays against them but my adjusted points ratings are strong on New York. Meanwhile, my primary model thinks that this game is lined just about right at Philly -2.5 so I’ll pass with a slight lean to the Giants.
Marco D'Angelo
Green Bay at Miami
Play: Miami +3
Time and time again the public underestimates the current state of the Miami Dolphins under third-year head coach Joe Philbin. The focus before and during this game at South Beach, Sunday, will be all about the relationship between Aaron Rodgers and Joe Philbin. The ascent of Rodgers into one of the game's best quarterbacks came while Philbin was a part of the Green Bay offensive staff, including a five-year stint as the team's offensive coordinator, prior to taking the Dolphins' head coaching job in 2012.
Because of this past relationship and Philbin's uncanny knack of covering the line as a home underdog Miami has the advantage in this Week 6 matchup. The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in this role (home puppy) under Philbin, including covering the number the past six times. During this span, Miami took down New England, 33-20, in Week 1 this season and last year took familiar turf in rout to defeating three playoff teams in the Patriots, Chargers and Bengals, as home underdogs.
Philbin was a part of the Green Bay system for nine years and during that period assisted in helping Rodgers post quarterback ratings of 151.2 and 138.7. In summary, Philbin knows Rodgers better than any opposing coach in the league. This fact, the two weeks to prepare this Sunday test and the pass rush Miami is capable of attacking with (see box score of win over New England and what happens when you take Brady off his spot) moves Rodgers outside of his pocket comfort zone and should secure yet another SU win as a home dog under Philbin.
Ignore the fact that home underdogs off a bye week are 3-8 against the line as the situation for the Dolphins offers extended variables that trump this trend. Miami is in that dreaded "must win situation," due to the fact the Dolphins have back-to-back road games on deck. Combine that factor with the two weeks to prepare for this contest, under Philbin's direction and they will prove to be too much for Green Bay's average offense --- against the Dolphins top rated NFL defense ---- in yards per play.
Rob Vinciletti
Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
Play: New York Jets +10
The Jets are grounded last week in San Diego but have some solid bounce back angles on their side today. The Jets are 9-0 ats as a dog after scoring 10 or less points and 12-1 to the spread if they are a dog an under .500 off a non division game and have 2 or more division games on deck. The Broncos have failed to cover the spread 9 of 10 times in their fifth game of the season and 9 of the last 11 vs a non division team like the Jets if they played an NFC team last week. Teams like the Jets that forced 1 or less turnovers in 5 straight games have covered 41 of 53 times the last 31 seasons. Super bowl losers like Denver have failed to cover the spread 90% of the time vs any non division team that scored 3 or less points in their last game. Look for the Jets to stay in this game and cover the spread.
Tony George
Chargers +7.5
Rarely do I make a case for laying points on the road, especially over 3 to 5 points, but I will make an exception here as Oakland is an absolute train-wreck, and breaking in a new head coach, playing a rookie QB against a defense ranked 1st in the NFL in Yards allowed and 3rd in points allowed.
Yes the Chargers are on their second backup center and third string RB (who managed 114 yards last week against a decent Jets front 6). Philip Rivers having the year of his career to this point, and credit Mike McCoy as one of the better coaches in recent memory to hit the scene and do what Norv Turner could not, win games and get the Chargers talent at skill positions all playing ball together. Oakland bumped up Tony Sparano to head coach, a guy who lost everywhere he was at before he landed in Oakland, which is par for the course at Radiers nation, take the leftovers and do nothing significant.
The key here is Philip Rivers decisions, and having the 3rd best turnover differential in the NFL to date, that is HUGE for the Chargers. I have them #1 in my power ratings this week, and they have beaten Seattle, something no one else has done recently, and the Bolts are 5-0 ATS this season and should actually be undefeated except foe a debacle on opening MNF against the Cards, and they are 10-1 ATS their last 11. Tale of teams going in 2 different directions, and the Raiders only direction is a downward spiral.
Marc Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Edges - Jaguars: 8-1 ATS road dog with revenge before back-to-back home games; and 6-1 ATS road dog in Game Six. Titans: 0-6 ATS versus division opponent with single revenge; and 1-6 ATS after Browns; and 1-5-1 ATS in this series. With winless road dogs in the NFL 68-36-3 ATS from Game Six out since 1980, the points become the play here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Jacksonville.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Giants +3
It’s almost as if the books are begging for money on the Eagles, listing Philadelphia as a favorite of just a field goal. It’s similar to what we saw back in Week 3 when the Giants were a 3-point road dog at Washington on Thursday Night Football. New York went on to win that contest 45-14. I don’t think the Giants are going to make it look that easy against the Eagles, but I definitely like the value of getting a field goal in a game they could win outright.
The Eagles nearly had an epic meltdown last week against the Rams. Philadelphia jumped out to a 34-7 lead, only to allow St Louis to pull within 6-points with less than 4 minutes to play. It’s also worth noting that it wasn’t as lopsided as the score would have indicated. The Eagles had two defensive touchdowns and were outgained in the contest by 114 yards. The Rams had 29 first downs with an average of 6.1 yards/play. It was the 3rd straight game in which Philadelphia was outgained by more than 100 yards.
While the Eagles were able to rush for 145 yards against the Rams, LeSean McCoy continued to struggle. McCoy managed 81 yards on 24 attempts, which is just a 3.4 average per carry. Without McCoy being a difference maker, this Philadelphia offense has had to rely too much on their passing game. The Giants come in ranked 10th against the run and have one of the more underrated secondaries in the league.
The big key here is that while the Eagles offense could struggle, the Giants shouldn’t have any problem moving the ball. Philadelphia comes in ranked 28th in the league in total defense (406.2 ypg) and 25th in scoring defense (26.4 ppg). The Giants have looked like a completely different offense during their 3-game winning streak, which has seen them outscore the opposition 105-51, scoring at least 30 points in all 3 games.
Fading the Eagles at home has been a wise investment, as Philadelphia is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games. The Giants on the other hand are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 29 road games against a team with a winning home record, 26-13 in their last 29 road games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4 and 33-12 ATS in their last 45 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
Freddy Wills
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +3
I'm taking the Bills here they are playing well turning the keys over to Kyle Orton was a great decisions because he can manage the game and get the ball into all the playmakers that the Bills have on offense. The Bills defense seems to be the real deal and playing up in Buffalo is no easy task. You could argue it's the toughest place to play on the East Coast and rivals what the Seahawks do out west. The Patriots have had their share of scares and trip ups here in the past and I'm not going to over react to what the Patriots did last week at home against the Bengals. They still allowed 6.7 yds/play to the Bengals and were helped by 3 fumbles.
Steve Janus
Falcons/Bears Over 54
This is the highest total on the board for Week 6 for good reason and I see no reason why these two teams won't combine for at least 55 points. Both teams have top level quarterbacks and big play weapons on the outside. Chicago's averaging 26.3 ppg on the road and the Falcons are giving up 28.6 ppg on the season. Atlanta averages 30.2 ppg and will be facing a Chicago defense that allows 26.2 ppg. Falcons have one of the worst defenses in the league. Bears aren't much better. Chicago has a problem with turning it over on offense, but thrive in taking it away on defense. More times than not, turnovers lead to quick/easy points and it's a big reason why I'm backing the OVER in this one.
Key Trends/System - OVER is 9-2 in Chicago's last 11 road games, and 12-3 in their last 15 in a game where the line is +3 to -3. OVER is 6-0 in Atlanta's last games when listed as a home favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. Add it up and that's a 32-6 (84%) system telling us to BET FALCONS/BEARS OVER 54!
Scott Spreitzer
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings -1
Detroit is a banged-up football team heading into week-6. They may be without the services of WR Calvin Johnson and RB Reggie Bush, who're both listed as doubtful at the time of this post. Meanwhile, after suffering an embarrassing loss with Christian Ponder behind center last Thursday, it looks as though Teddy Bridgewater will be back on the field against Detroit and that makes a world of difference, as Ponder is little more than a 3rd string NFL QB. Minnesota has rebounded well off a loss by at least 21 points over the years, currently on an 11-1 ATS run at home in this situation. The Lions have had to count on their defense, and the stop unit has played extremely well thus far. But the offense has been struggling, thanks mostly to injuries, scoring a grand total of just 64 points over the last four weeks, combined. The Lions will be hard-pressed to win this one, considering their struggles in Minnesota. The Vikings have won the last two meetings at home and they're 19-3 SU the last 22 times they have played host to the Lions. No Metrodome? No problem. I still expect a home win for the Vikings. I'm recommending Minnesota, minus the points on Sunday.
Joseph D'Amico
NY Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: NY Giants +3
The line is short here because RB, Rashad Jennings is out. But Andre Williams can certainly get the job done pounding the ball. The Philly defense allows 26.4 PPG, 132 Rushing Yards per game, and 274.2 Passing Yards per game. Eli Manning has only 1 INT over the L3 games, all wins and covers while the Giants "D" has played tough yielding just 17 PPG during their streak. The Eagles can't run the ball at all and the Giants know it. Expect a ton of blitzing by NY and TO's by Philly. The Road Team is 5-1-1 ATS the L7 meetings in this series. The Eagles are 8-22-1 ATS their L31 at home, 3-11-1 ATS their L15 vs. winners, and 1-4 ATS their L5 vs. the NFC East. The Giants are 5-2 ATS their L7 road games, 24-9-1 ATS their L34 games played in October, and 4-1 ATS their L5 vs. the NFC East.
Red Dog Sports
San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Oakland Raiders +8
San Diego beat Seattle at home and has a solid QB in Phillip Rivers and a nice defense but I expect this to be a letdown game. Oakland is not a very good team but they are still pros and should be motivated in this division game. I think the Chargers win but the Raiders will cover.