Joe Gavazzi
Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Washington Redskins +3
No line on this contest because of the fact that starting QB Palmer has been declared out, his backup QB Stanton is still recovering from a concussion, leaving 3rd string QB Logan Thomas as the potential starter. The Arizona undefeated bubble burst last week in a resounding 41-20 loss at Denver, when they were outgained 568-215. With little continuity at the QB position and an injured DL, it is hard to recommend the Cards to continue their current 10-3 SU ATS run. Washington embarrassed themselves on their home field on MNF. Not only were the Skins defeated 27-17, but they were also outrushed 225-32 by Seattle. Working in our favor is the embarrassment/motivation of that home field loss, the fact that unsuccessful 1st year coaches on the road, off a loss following an embarrassing defensive performance, are a strong bounce back, and the fact that the combined -9 net TO margin favoring Washington is the 2nd biggest edge of the week in that category. With Washington holding a 6.2 to 5.2 edge in offensive YP play and possessing the superior defensive yard per play average, the upset will be no surprise to this bureau.
Oliver Alonso
NY Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: NY Giants +3
After losing their first two games, the Giants were being tossed around as possibly the first team to quit on their coach this season but that was clearly not the case. After a dreadful preseason on offense, it carried over into those first two games but that the new system is finally starting to become more familiar to the players, we are seeing the success. New York has won three straight games while averaging 35 ppg in the process and they are catching the Eagles at the perfect time. Philadelphia may be 4-1 on the season but they are arguably the worst one loss team in the NFL and could be sitting at 1-4 right now.
The Eagles have seven non-offensive touchdowns this season including five in the last two weeks to hide very disappointing results for the offense. Philadelphia has one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL and the Eagles have been a terrible rushing team with just 3.8 yards per attempt. The Eagles needed miraculous comebacks in all three wins in the first three weeks and last week Philadelphia was fortunate to hold on against Austin Davis and the Rams. The Eagles have been out-gained by at least 114 yards in each of the last three games.
Tom Coughlin again has brought his team out of obscurity and making them relevant. The Eagles gave a 3rd string QB in St Louis 375 yards through the air, and now that Manning has the controls of the West Coast offense down, he will have a big night against a deplorable defense.
Expect the Giants to climb until the first place in the NFC East.
Teddy Covers
Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -2½
Yes, Logan Thomas has no business as an NFL starting quarterback. But I’m still more than willing to lay a field goal (or less; plenty of -2.5’s out there as I write this) with Arizona on Sunday against the Redskins.
I’m betting on two things here: Thomas’s arm strength and the Cardinals defense. Let me start with the fact that Thomas has a huge arm. No accuracy, but a huge arm. Bruce Arians has shown a strong tendency to take numerous downfield shots, regardless of who is his quarterback. The Redskins hideous pass defense might stop most of them, but Washington is surely good for a blown coverage or two, and a pass interference or two. ‘Zona has playmakers at WR, and at least Thomas got some of his ‘first game jitters’ out last week with his dreadful effort off the bench in Denver. The Redskins blitz waaaay too much; even Thomas can find receivers running wide open downfield.
And Arizona’s elite defense is poised to make amends for their dreadful showing in Denver last Sunday. Prior to that game, the Cards hadn’t allowed anybody to move the football against them on a consistent basis. Three solid offenses – the Chargers, Giants and 49ers – all had their lowest scoring game of the season against this stop unit. CB Antonio Cromartie, following the loss at Denver: "It's by far the worst game of my career. But it's one game out of the season. We've got 12 more games."
Washington’s only win in five tries this year came against Jacksonville. Three of their four losses have come by double digit margins. With their own backup QB behind center, travelling all the way across the country on a short week, I’m not expecting rookie head coach Jay Gruden to have his team fully prepared to compete for 60 minutes. Cheap price to lay with the vastly superior team, regardless of their issues at QB.
Sam Martin
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
Falcons enter this week with a losing 2-3 record and are coming off a pair of double-digit losses the last two weeks. Those results are a bit misleading, however, as all three of their losses came on the road - here at home Atlanta is a perfect 2-0 both SU and ATS scoring a combined 93 points in those two games.
We'll back the Falcons to win big here at home this Sunday against a Bears team that has also lost each of their last two games. Not at all impressed with Chicago's defensive efforts the last few weeks, including 300 passing yards allowed against the Jets and 302 passing yards allowed against Green Bay. Another strong passing offense to deal with this week and the Falcons end their losing skid with a comfortable win and cover!
Matt Fargo
Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland
Pick: Under
Past results do not predict future outcomes but when it comes to totals in the NFL, those past results can help future outcomes. A lot of times we see teams involved in low scoring games one week come back and have a high scoring game the next week and vice versa. An additional piece that helps with that is the adjustment of the totals as teams involved in low scoring games will see a drop in the total the following week and teams involved in high scoring games will see a rise in the total the following week. While the Steelers are coming off a low scoring game last week at Jacksonville, the number remains the same this week which is a good thing since it is high to begin with. Pittsburgh had gone over the total in two straight games prior to that and this total exceeds those as well. Meanwhile, Cleveland has gone over the total in all four games this season and the only game that saw a total close to this one was its game against New Orleans and you certainly cannot compare the Steelers and Saints when it comes to offense. Those four results for the Browns is keeping this number up and we are also catching value based on the series. These teams met on opening week and that over/under closed at 41.5 so we are seeing an adjustment of six points in some cases and that is a bad move for this series. Since 2008, there have been 13 meetings and only twice has there been more than 41 points scored. And yes, this total is by far the largest over this span.
Nelly
Oakland Raiders + over San Diego Chargers
There is not a lot to like about what the Raiders have done in a 0-4 start that cost Dennis Allen his job. That said, Oakland has some talent on both sides of the ball and the team has had two weeks to regroup for its first division games of the season. In Oakland's only home game this year they out-gained Houston by 37 yards in a loss and San Diego enters this game overvalued with a perfect 5-0 ATS start, riding four S/U wins in a row. The Chargers have been out-rushed in four of five games this season and San Diego is coming off playing two of the worst teams in the NFL the past two weeks. The Chiefs and Broncos are ahead on the schedule for San Diego so this could be a game that gets less focus from the team and the Chargers lost as a heavy favorite in Oakland last season 27-17. Oakland has covered in seven of the last 10 meetings in this series and this is an overrated San Diego offense that is in the middle of the pack statistically in the league despite a weak early season schedule. San Diego is the worst rushing team in the NFL gaining just 2.8 yards per rush and this is a great opportunity for the Raiders to play their best game of the season.
Andy Iskoe
Minnesota -2
Minnesota rookie QB Bridgewater is expected to start in this game but Detroit star WR Calvin Johnson is expected to miss while RB Reggie Bush is very questionable. As such, this game has seen the Vikings go from about a 2 point underdog to a 2 point favorite. In their win over Atlanta Bridgewater provided a much needed spark for the Vikings and his teammates responded well to his leadership. He was clearly misses in the Vikes' last game, a Thursday night 42-10 loss in Green Bay. Detroit was flat in blowing last week's game to Buffalo, scoring just 1 offensive TD (albeit the Buffalo defense has been underrated all season). The Vikes do have extra rest after that loss to the Packers and being routed at Green Bay should provide extra motivation and time to prepare to face a Lions team that is more likely to be without Johnson but with Bush. Meanwhile the Vikings have adjusted to the absence of RB Peterson rushing for 241 and 111 yards the past two weeks.
Rocketman
NY Giants @ Philadelphia
Play: NY Giants +3
The NY Giants travel to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles on Sunday night. NY Giants are 3-2 SU on the season while Philadelphia comes in with a 4-1 SU overall record this year. Philadelphia defense is allowing 132 yards per game on the ground this year, 274.2 yards per game passing this season and 406.2 total yards per game. Philadelphia is 4-14 ATS last 3 years when playing at home. NY Giants are scoring 26.6 points per game overall this year and 29.5 points per game on the road this season. Philadelphia is allowing 26.4 points per game overall this year and 26.3 points per game at home this season. NY Giants are 27-11-1 last 39 road games against a team with a winning home record. Philadelphia is 8-22-1 ATS last 31 home games. Philadelphia is 3-11-1 ATS last 15 games against a team with a winning record. Underdog is 14-4-1 ATS last 19 meetings in this series. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Giants tonight!
River City Sharps
Chargers -7
The Oakland Raiders are a mess and back home following a trip to London, England, where they were throttled by the Miami Dolphins and decided to fire HC Dennis Allen after just four weeks into the season. While we would think the Raiders may play inspired football for new HC Tony Sporano, the truth is that they are so lacking in talent on the offensive side of the football that this line is still a gift at Chargers -7. The Chargers are 4-1 on the season and playing really solid football, led by QB Philip Rivers and veteran TE Antonio Gates. There are some serious trends in the Chargers favor in this contest. Let’s start with the fact that San Diego is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. While the Raiders are off the Bye week here, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Oakland is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games off a Bye week and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with a winning record. The value here clearly lies with the Chargers and we’re gladly going to swallow the points in this spot.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Cincinnati/Carolina Under 43.5: Hard to see this one as high scoring, especially with the injuries the Bengals have on offense. The panthers also have some offensive injuries, and they will be taking on an angry Cincinnati defense that was torched last week by the Patriots. The Bengals have allowed just 8.5 ppg at hone this year, while the panthers have scored just 15 ppg on the road. This Bengals did allow 43 points to the Pats last week, but dating to the Preseason they have allowed 16 points or less in 5 straight games. this is a very tough defense and will not give up much here. On Offense the Bengals may turn to more of a ground attack here as they will be without AJ Green for this one. That's Ok as Giovani Bernard can handle the duties and keep that clock running. The Bengals 2 home games have put up just 40 and 34 points and this one should fall between those two numbers.
Bruce Marshall
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
This has been a good matchup lately for Minnesota, especially at home where it stands 4-0-1 vs. the lien the last five hosting the Lions. Better news for the Vikings is that Teddy Bridgewater in expected back in the lineup after Christian Ponder's disappearing act lasdt Thursday at Green Bay. And in the Vikings' yo-yo pattern this season, they're due for an "up" week. Detroit is banged up, with Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush hurting and the offense down to third-string RB George Winn in last week's 17-14 loss to the bills. Lions still just 8-14-1 vs. line last 23 away.
Will Rogers
Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -3
The Cardinals lost by 21 points on the road at Denver last week, but they host a struggling Redskins team in Arizona this Sunday. Washington lost 27-17 to Seattle on Monday night, and this looks like a tough spot for the visitors who come off a short week. I like Arizona as just a slight favorite at home.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Drew Stanton - You have to wonder if last week's game would have been closer if Stanton didn't go down with a concussion in the second half. The Cardinals trailed by just four points heading into the fourth quarter, but third string QB Logan Thomas was 0-for-8 after throwing his first pass for a long TD. Stanton has been cleared to play versus Washington, and he's done a great job filling in for Carson Palmer, throwing for 529 yards with a pair of TDs and no picks.
2. Arizona Defense - The gave up 41 points last week, but still they showed flashes of greatness against Peyton Manning, forcing him to throw a couple picks. Arizona doesn't give up much on the ground, ranking 4th in the league allowing opponents to average fewer than 77 yards rushing per game.
3. X-Factor - The Cardinals have been a good bet when coming off a loss, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine such contests.
Stephen Nover
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills New
Play: England Patriots -2½
If we learned anything last week about New England it's that the Patriots still can blow out good teams.
Buffalo is not a good team. The Bills were fortunate to beat the Lions when Detroit missed three field goals and Calvin Johnson was sidelined. Kyle Orton is a career backup and not comparable to Tom Brady.
The Bills have an underrated defense and solid special teams. But so do the Patriots. The Patriots are much more dangerous offensively now that Rob Gronkowski is close to 100 percent again.
New England holds a psychological edge, too, on the Bills with Brady under center. The Patriots are 22-2 versus the Bills when Brady plays.
Too much pseudo wise guy thought is going into this matchup. The bottom line here is there remains a class different. The Patriots are still at least one level higher than Buffalo.
The Patriots regained their confidence and swagger blowing out the Bengals last week. They aren't going to regress in this matchup.
Jesse Schule
Denver Broncos vs. NY Jets
Play: NY Jets +11
The Broncos won big at home over Arizona last week, and they come into New York as a double-digit favorite this Sunday. The Jets have been dreadful since winning at home versus Oakland in Week 1. Things change fast in this league though, and there are a few reasons why I expect a competitive game here at Metlife Stadium.
Last week Manning threw for 472 yards and four TDs, and Denver won by a 21 point margin. The game was a lot closer than it sounds though, Arizona trailed by just four points heading into the fourth quarter. In fact if it wasn't for an injury to Drew Stanton, the score could have been even closer.
Geno Smith has struggled at quarterback for New York, but he could get a boost with the return of star wideout Eric Decker this week. Decker will be looking to stick it to Denver just like Steve Smith did to the Panthers earlier in the year.
As good as Denver has looked in the passing game, they haven't had as much success running the football, and losing Monte Ball with a groin injury isn't going to help.
Peyton Manning knows not to expect a picnic in New York: "This is a stout defense; tough against the run, causes you a lot of pass protection issues, No. 1 in sacks, a lot of three-and-outs," Manning said.
Kyle Hunter
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns are sick and tired of losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh isn't even close to the team they used to be, and Cleveland is a team on the rise. The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in football, and that has allowed them to stay balanced on offense. The Steelers previously had a dominant defense, but that's no longer the case. Cleveland still considers this their primary rivalry while this is nothing more than another game to Pittsburgh. Cleveland has a great opportunity in this one, and I don't think they'll let it slip through their hands. Look for Cleveland's strong offensive line and tremendous secondary to lead the way.