Jim Feist
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Pick: Oakland Raiders
The Chargers have won four straight since their opening week loss at Arizona. Last week they recorded a rare NFL shutout win over the Jets, 31-0. The Chargers defense held the Jets offense in check. In fact, the Jets didn't cross mid-field until late in the 4th quarter. Not sure if it was so much the Chargers defense or the pathetic play of the Jets offense. Still, the Chargers could be in a look ahead spot here. They play next week at home against Kansas City and then travel to Denver to face the Broncos. I have to believe the Chargers want to get out of this game as injury free as possible considering they have some big losses in the backfield already. Oakland has actually had good success against the Chargers, covering two of the last three meetings and seven of the last 10. The offense isn't good, 32nd in the league, but the passing defense is solid (4th in the league) and that is the strength of the Chargers. I like the points here on Sunday, take the Raiders.
DAVE COKIN
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS AT ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +115
Just in case you haven’t been paying attention, the dogs are running wild so far in this post-season. That trend was maintained on Saturday as the two road teams emerged with wins, and I can see more of the same taking place today.
There’s certainly mot much I can say negatively about Lance Lynn, the Game Two starter for the Cardinals. He’s been remarkably consistent all season and with Adam Wainwright just not 100% right now, Lynn is the ace of the St. Louis staff, at least for the time being. The one downer for Lynn here is his 0-3, 7.98 career ledger against the Giants. But that’s really small sample data and I don’t consider it to be particularly significant.
What does matter to me is the way Jake Peavy is throwing for the Giants. He is red hot. Peavy has not allowed more than two earned runs in ten straight starts. His control has been close to razor sharp, and if Peavy isn’t beating himself, chances are not too many hitters will, either. When I see current form data like Peavy’s and a nice little plus sign attached to boot, I get very interested.
Getting the Game One win was huge for San Francisco. The Giants now can play loose, as they’ve at worst accomplished the split at Busch and now own home field advantage. We’re also seeing a common theme in the these playoffs. The teams falling behind at the outset of the series are having a great deal of trouble recovering. Perhaps it’s the pressure of being favored while behind, or something else I can’t put my thumb on. But the results have been about as clear cut as it gets.
I think this game rates as a tossup on paper with Peavy battling Lynn, but I definitely prefer to be backing the team with the momentum. That’s clearly the Giants off yesterday’s shutout win, so I’ll back San Francisco here as underdogs to take the 2-0 series lead.
EZWINNERS
New York Jets +10
I have to be honest when I say that there are not any "football" reasons to like the Jets in this match up. This is more of a gut feeling and fade of Floyd Mayweather's 11 million dollar bet on the Broncos. The Jets were hammered last week in San Diego and we all know about the circus that is Geno Smith. Now they face Peyton Manning and company and the whole world will be on Denver. The fact of the matter is that since 2009, double digit home underdogs are an incredible 16-2 against the spread. Take the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers PK
The Browns almost knocked off the Steelers in week one at Pittsburgh thanks to a big second half comeback. Cleveland caught the Steelers defense by surprise with the no huddle, but I don't see that happening this time around. The Browns are coming off of a huge comeback win against Tennessee last week, but the Steelers have owned this series winning 18 out of 19 games. Pittsburgh has too many offensive weapons for Cleveland's 30th ranked defense that will have star cornerback Joe Haden at less than 100%. Play on Pittsburgh.
Miami Dolphins +3
The Packers offense is starting to click, but the Dolphins have had extra time to get ready for Aaron Rodgers and company after wiping out the Raiders in London two weeks ago. This will be Miami's toughest test so far this season, but the Dolphins defense is second in the league in total defense behind the Seahawks. The question is how will Green Bay who has the worst rushing defense in the league stop Miami who is 8th in the NFL in rushing. Ball control will be the key and the Dolphins are the home underdog with the better defense. Take the points.
Buffalo Bills +2.5
New England killed Cincinnati on national TV last week but should we believe that their offense is clicking like the Patriots of old? Buffalo's defense is playing well, and with Kyle Orton at quarterback who threw for over 300 yards last week at Detroit, you have to at least respect Buffalo's ability to get the ball down field. This opens up more opportunities for the Bills running game. It took a last minute field goal for the Patriots to escape with a two point win in Buffalo last season and I expect this one to go to the wire as well. Take the points.
Atlanta Falcons -3
This is a bad match up for a Bears team that is still stinging from blowing the lead last week in Carolina. After back to back road losses at Minnesota and New York, Atlanta gets back to the Georgia Dome where they are a totally different team. The Falcons have scored 93 points in their two home wins. Matt Ryan and company should have a field day against the banged up Chicago secondary. Chicago has plenty of weapons on offense as well, but I'll take quarterback Matt Ryan over mistake prone Jay Cutler any day. Lay the small number.
Harry Bondi
San Diego / Oakland Under 44
Not only have the Raiders gone under the total in 10 of their last 16 home games, but they are also the lowest scoring team in the NFL with rookie QB Derek Carr at QB, averaging less than 13 points per game. Can't expect much more than that today against a San Diego team that is very stingy against the run and will force Carr into mistakes. The Chargers, meanwhile, have a cluster of injuries on offense and the last five times a team has been favored by seven or more on the road, the game has gone under. Offenses struggle in the Black Hole today.
Bob Balfe
St. Louis Cardinals -130
Both pitchers have been good this year and like I said yesterday winning these playoff games come down to who gets the lucky bounce or the big unexpected home run. The Cardinals are a great home team and will fight to get this series tied up before taking the road. Look for another pitches duel. Take the Cardinals.
The Gold Sheet
Giants at Eagles
Play: Eagles
With RT Lane Johnson back from suspension, Philly's OL performed better, as RBs LeSean McCoy & Darren Sproles collected 132 yards on the ground in last week's victory over St. Louis. But, as in their previous three games, the Eagles' defense left plenty to be desired, as young QB Austin Davis connected for 375 YP. Meanwhile, Eli has had only one int. in his last three games, with power backs Rashad Jennings & Andre Williams now up to a combined 566 YR for the season, opening things up for Manning in new West Coast attack. Top pick Odell Beckham even overcame his hamstring woes last week to grab four passes, including one for a TD. G-Men 15-9 last 24 as a dog.
Brady Kannon
Baltimore -3
What has me wondering about this game is that the line seems a bit short. I made it 4.5 coming into the week. But with Tampa Bay looking somewhat impressive in New Orleans - on the scoreboard at least - and The Ravens being contained in Indy, I will say that we are getting some value with the number. However, Baltimore is absolutely the better team. I rate them in the top 10 in the league and Tampa Bay in the bottom 3. Joe Flacco has his struggles on the road but I like the spot here as it is his second go around in as many weeks. In fact, The Ravens are 7-and-1 ATS in the second of back to back non division road games when facing a losing opponent - coupled with Tampa's 0-and-5 ATS mark as a home underdog off of two straight road tilts. Some of the numbers are close in this game but many are not, with primarily Baltimore having a substantially better defense. I can't make a case for The Buccaneers in this game at all, in any area. The Ravens are a pretty good team, in a good spot, with what I believe is a big organizational and coaching advantage to boot - and they will show all of that to be true today.
LT Profits
Green Bay vs Miami
Pick : Miami +3
The Green Bay Packers may have the better overall team, but they have quite a few things going against them when they visit the Miami Dolphins. For starters, Miami Coach Joe Philbin should know how to defend Aaron Rodgers as he was the Green Bay offensive coordinator before becoming the head man of the Dolphins. And Miami simultaneously had a good pass rush and a good run defense, meaning that Rodgers may need to carry the offense without much help from Eddy Lacy and he may be under pressure while trying to do so. Also, this is a poor scheduling spot for Green Bay, playing a non-conference road game following two big division wins. And finally, Philbin and the Dolphins have had two weeks to prepare to face the quarterback he once coached since routing Oakland before their bye. The Dolphins are 15-7 ATS their last 22 games vs. teams with winning records.
SPORTS WAGERS
San Francisco +126 over ST. LOUIS
Like the Royals, the Giants are finding ways to win, they have a ton of momentum and that’s something we wouldn’t want to get in front of right now. We love these baseball dogs in Game 2 after winning Game 1 simply because they’re playing with far less pressure than the team that’s down 0-1. We’re also not sold on Lance Lynn. Lynn had a very impressive year in terms of his surface stats with a 2.74 ERA through 33 starts but in there we find some troubling trends. Lynn's fortunate hr/f of 6%, (the MLB average is 10%) and strand rate of 81% (MLB average is 74%) indicates his ERA was indeed fortunate. Lynn’s xERA of 3.81 confirms that. Lynn has seen his walk rate steadily increase (72 BB in 204 innings) during what should be his growth years. As a result, his command is now merely average. Lynn has been on an odd career path so far, as his K rate, overall skills and xERA are all in a three-year decline from his rookie season. His current skills are that of an average pitcher. Lynn is still young and has shown better skills in the past, but skills trending in the wrong direction like this don't give us confidence he'll keep up his current level of performance.
Jake Peavy looked like a pitcher in big trouble when he started the year with Boston and posted a 1-9 record with a 4.82 ERA through July 22. Then came the trade deadline and a subsequent rejuvenation for Peavy. Since becoming a Giant, we’ve seen incremental positives in command, batting average against, and WHIP. Peavy’s 8.8 K’s/9 since joining the Giants is a nick higher than his career norm. Over his last four starts, Peavy posted a 1.15 ERA, an xERA of 2.96 and a BB/K split of 8/30 covering 39 innings. He threw a two hitter in 5.2 innings against the Nationals in the NLDS and is certainly worth backing as a pooch in this one. While it’s normally difficult recommending a SP with a 7-13 record, a reunion with Bruce Bochy and his current form might be enough to make Peavy an exception, at least for the short term. Of course the Giants can win again.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. RANGERS -½ +101 over Toronto
Regulation only. There are useful stats in hockey and there are useless ones. Shot-blocks, hits and even plus/minus to a lesser degree really don’t give us enough information in terms of predictive value. Mention shots on net, Corsi, or the idea of shooting percentage regression to the wrong person and you could find yourself on the receiving end of a lengthy "watch the game" lecture. Believe it or don’t believe it, we could not care less but if you’re smart, you’ll pay much more attention to analytics than the useless stats that NHL box scores present. It might be oversimplifying the process, but if your team keeps getting more shots than the other team and spends more time in the offensive zone, you’re probably going to win a lot more games than you lose. We also have to include other intangibles like situational betting, fatigue and motivation and that brings us to the Maple Leafs.
In two games, the Maple Leafs have allowed 73 shots on net. In two games the New York Rangers have allowed 49 shots on net. Had it not been for Jonathan Bernier, Toronto would have lost by six goals last night, not three. Against a very suspect Pittsburgh defense, the Maple Leafs managed a mere 25 shots on net. The Leafs have played Montreal and Pittsburgh and have been outshot 73-52 and have spent the better part of five periods mostly in its own end (the first period against Montreal was their best period so far). Meanwhile, the Rangers have played Columbus and St. Louis and outshot that pair by a count of 51-49. John Tortorella was ran out of New York and lasted just a year in Vancouver because he turned those teams into shot-blockers and penalty killers. Randy Carlyle is going to suffer the same fate very soon because like Tortorella, he’s old school and puts his team in a position to lose, not win. Through two games, Toronto’s fourth line has spent more time on the ice than any other fourth line on any team. The Leafs continue to run around in their own end while their best players are spending more time on the bench than they did a year ago. Instead of going after players that can attack in the offensive end, Toronto picked up Richard Panik off of the waiver wire to play on its fourth line. The Leafs now have a bunch of fourth line players like Peter Holland, Daniel Winnik, Mike Santorelli, Matt Frattin and Leo Komarov. The same things that plagued the Leafs a year ago are plaguing them again this year, only this year it is worse. The Maple Leafs are going to win some games this year when they catch the opposition in a difficult scheduling spot or on a mental low but that does not apply to the Rangers here.
New York went to the Cup Finals last year. Their greatest strength is the blue line. For six-deep strength defense, the Rangers rank beside anyone in the East and are the only team in the conference you can mention in the same breath as Los Angeles. The loss of Dan Boyle means nothing, unless we’re talking about six years ago. Kevin Klein came over from Nashville while Ryan McDonagh established new standards for himself in the run to the final. The Rangers lack scoring and they have a key injury to Derek Stepan but Rick Nash has looked very sharp in the early going and the Rangers have not been outplayed in either game even though they lost 5-2 last night in Columbus. Backup goaltender Cam Talbot was used and he wasn’t very good. It’ll be Henrik Lundqvist tonight in net for the Rangers home opener and the building will be electric. The Maple Leafs remain the most beatable team in the NHL and while we missed an opportunity to play the Pens against them last night in Toronto, we’re not going to miss this one with James Reimer getting his first start of the year.
Michael Alexander
San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: San Diego Chargers -7
Oakland comes into this one with a 103-51 point deficit for the season, and currently in my opinion the Chargers are currently the best team in the NFL. They come into this one with four straight wins, by a combined 116-45 score, and have covered their last 4 games by 60 points. QB Rivers now an outstanding 11 touchdowns with only 1 interceptions while RB Oliver had 114 rushing yeards versus the Jets. The misery in Oakland continues
Larry Ness
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is happy to be back home, as the Falcons just can’t seem to “get it right” on the NFL road (they’ve now lost 10 of their last 11 away from home, winning only in Toronto vs Buffalo). The Falcons held a 10-point advantage early in the third quarter last Sunday at MetLife Stadium but allowed the New York Giants to score 20 unanswered in a 30-20 loss. Matt Ryan threw for 316 yards with a TD and an INT but the Falcons went 2 for 13 on third down, including 1 for 8 in the second half. Atlanta also was held to 90 yards rushing behind an injury riddled offensive line that hopes to have starting guard Justin Blalock available after he sat with a back injury last weekend. Veteran RB Steven Jackson is averaging 3.8 YPC and hasn't rushed for more than 54 yards this season.
The 2-3 Falcons (all losses have come away from home) will host the 2-3 Bears, who let a 21-7 lead at Carolina slip away last Sunday, falling 31-24 (Bears were 2-0 on the road to start the season, winning at the 49ers and Jets). Chicago QB Jay Cutler continued to put both his best and worst foot forward last week, as he threw for a pair of touchdowns and ran for another in the first half before tossing two interceptions in the second. He has now thrown four TDs and just one INT while posting a 129.7 QB rating in the first half over the last two weeks but has three INTs, zero TD passes and a 44.0 rating in the final two quarters of those contests. The much-scrutinized QB will look to get back on track and exploit an Atlanta defense that is ranked 29th overall, including and 24th vs the pass. Head coach Marc Trestman has publicly stated his desire to see Cutler feed the ball to Brandon Marshall, who has mustered just 11 catches for 117 yards in the last four games while battling an ankle injury.
The Bears will likely have to outscore the Falcons to win here, as Atlanta has scored 37 and 56 points in two home games in 2014, with Ryan completing 73.4% for 764 yards with six TDs and zero INTs while posting a 142.2 QB rating! Ryan will be facing a banged-up Chicago defense, whose patchwork secondary is a mess (Rodgers and Newton have thrown for 557 yards the last two games against Chicago, with six TDS and just one INT in 63 pass attempts). Atlanta also owns a not-so-secret weapon in Devin Hester, who is eager to burn his former team either from scrimmage or with his record-breaking kickoff and punt returns.
The Bears will score but the Falcons will score more. This will likely go over but the over/under number is a bit too high for my liking. I’d rather lay the ‘short’ price.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Tampa Bay is 1-4 but could be 4-1. It defeated the Steelers and took the Panthers, Rams and Saints down to the wire. The Ravens have struggled on the road where they are 1-1 with the win coming by just two points over Cleveland. The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus losing teams and 0-5 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a losing home record. You want to fade teams like Baltimore off a loss ATS if they carry a win percentage of 51-60% and are up against a team with a win percentage of 25% or worse. Doing so has produced a 9-1 ATS mark the last five seasons and a 70-34 ATS record since 1983. In addition, home underdogs or pickems with an offense that averages 5.4 yards per play or more, after allowing an average of 450.0 yards over their last two games, are 7-1 ATS the last three seasons and 15-3 ATS the last 10 seasons.
John Ryan
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: New England Patriots -2
The simulator shows a high probability that New England will win this game by 5 or more points. Brady is 22-2 against the Bills in his career and I don't see any reason that prevents the Patriots from easily winning this game. Patriots handled a strong Bengals team quite easily going back some very basic fundamental power football. They also did not need a sound running game to get going early in the game to open up play action pass for Brady. In fact, the first play of the game was a two TE set and Brady completed a pass using play action. The Patriots defense has gone mostly unnoticed and have developed into a strong group. They rank 4th in the NFL allowing 316 yards-per-game and have done a great job in red zone defense ranking 7th best. Buffalo's offense has been horrid in the red zone ranking 31st scoring a TD on just 33% of their red zone possessions. Further, the Patriots secondary has been very good and rank 3rd allowing just 197 passing yards per game. Leading the pass defense is LB Hightower, who grades second best in the NFL in combined run and pass stoppage. Brady has a slight ankle sprain and this may lead the Bills defensive front to look to pressure him. They have one of the best DT in the league in Kyle Williams, but the Patriots are excellent in double teams and using two TE sets for max protection situations. I believe Williams will have a very quiet game. Patriots are a solid 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game since 1992; 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.
Jeff Alexander
New York Giants +3
The Eagles have been a downright awful investment at home where they are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games. They are also just 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games versus winning teams. The Giants have been hitting on all cylinders, going 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 games - a good sign considering they are 19-6 ATS since 1992 in road games following 3 or more consecutive covers. The G-Men are also an eye-popping 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 roadies versus teams with a winning home record. The Philly defense has been awful, and Eli Manning and company will take advantage. The Giants are on a 14-4 ATS run in road games versus teams that give up 260.0 passing yards per game or more. The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the underdog is 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings.