Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 1

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

NY Mets at Washington
The Mets look to build on their 6-1 record in Jonathon Niese's last 7 road starts with the total set at 7 to 8 1/2 runs. New York is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125)

Game 951-952: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Kelly) 15.381; Pittsburgh (Johnson) 14.500
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Under

Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.105; Cubs (Arrieta) 15.482
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-110); N/A

Game 955-956: San Diego at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 14.191; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 16.024
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-230); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-230); Over

Game 957-958: Cincinnati at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 16.016; Colorado (Chatwood) 14.458
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Under

Game 959-960: San Francisco at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Petit) 14.542; Arizona (Corbin) 15.921
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-165); Over

Game 961-962: Miami at Atlanta (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 15.288; Atlanta (Wood) 14.982
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-230); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+200); Under

Game 963-964: NY Mets at Washington (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Niese) 15.931; Washington (Ohlendorf) 14.818
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under

Game 965-966: Cleveland at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Salazar) 14.240; Detroit (Verlander) 16.210
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Over

Game 967-968: Kansas City at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 15.863; Toronto (Happ) 16.705
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Over

Game 969-970: Baltimore at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 14.859; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.326
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-125); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Rienzo) 15.850; Boston (Doubront) 17.380
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-230); Under

Game 973-974: Seattle at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.727; Houston (Oberholtzer) 13.275
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Over

Game 975-976: Minnesota at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 15.633; Texas (Blackley) 14.828
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-205); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+175); Under

Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Wright) 14.815; Oakland (Griffin) 16.403
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 979-980: LA Angels at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 16.135; Milwaukee (Lohse) 14.783
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); Under

Jim Feist

Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Kansas City Royals

The Royals have lost two straight to the Blue Jays after Saturday's 4-2 setback. Kansas City held a 2-0 lead heading into the 7th on Saturday, but gave up one in the 7th and three in the 8th for the loss. Don't expect the Jays to make it a hat-trick with another win here on Sunday as they face the best KC starter, James Shields. Shields is 2-0 his last three starts with a 1.69 ERA. And, even though the righthander is only 9-8 on the season, it's been more because of a lack of run support as Shields has a very good 3.14 ERA. Despite the lack of run suppoprt, Shields has won six of his last 10 starts. Conversely, Toronto starter J.A.Happ is 1-2 his last three starts with a lofty 6.46 ERA. Happ has allowed nine runs in his last 10 innings worked. The Royals have been a very good road team, posting a 13-6 mark after Saturday's loss in their last 19 away contests. You might think home cooking would be good for Happ, but not really. The Jays are 0-4 in Happ's last four home starts and 2-8 in his last 10 overall. Asking a lot here for the Jays to sweep three in a row against a quality pitcher like Shields. We'll have to lay a small price, but it's well worth it in this spot.

ParlayJoe

OhioLouisville Over 58

Sam Martin

Ohio at Louisville
Play: Louisville

We usually like to take the points with big lines such as this (we successfully backed both Western Michigan and Temple this week getting around four-touchdowns each), but not this afternoon as Louisville should win this game in a rout. The Cardinals have set themselves up for success with a tremendously easy schedule - not having to face one currently-ranked team this year. That easy schedule takes away a number of motivational distractions, and they should be focused squarely on Ohio U today. Bobcats fell apart late last year losing four of their last five games to end the regular season, and their defense should be torched here today against what is likely the front-runner for NFL-caliber quarterbacks in Teddy Bridgewater. Just too much offense on the home side and we'll recommend a 5* play on laying the points.

Jimmy Boyd

Colorado Rockies +108

The Colorado Rockies are undervalued in this game. They have a .284 batting average at home, and are scoring 5.2 runs per game. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds have posted a .247 batting average on the road, and scored 4.2 runs per game. The Rockies are also the hot team coming into this game. They have won four of their last six, while the Reds have lost four of their last six games.

Colorado also has an advantage on the mound. Tyler Chatwood has been phenomenal for the Rockies, posting a 4-1 record at home and a 3.15 overall ERA this season. Chatwood's career ERA against the reds is a stellar 2.25. The Red's Mike Leake has been getting torched recently. In his last three starts he has a 6.75 ERA and he is coming off a 6.3 inning performance in which he allowed seven hits and five earned runs.

Rocketman

Kansas City @ Toronto
Play: Kansas City -137

The Kansas City Royals travel to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City is 9-1 the past 3 years and 7-0 this year as a road favorite of -125 to -150. Kansas City is scoring 5.4 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have a team batting average of .300. Kansas City is allowing only 2.6 runs per game their past seven games overall where they are allowing opposing teams a combined batting average of only .218. James Shields is 9-8 with a 3.14 ERA overall this year, 7-3 with a 2.26 ERA on the road this season and 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA his last 3 starts. JA Happ is 3-4 with a 5.46 ERA overall this year and 1-2 with a 6.46 ERA his last 3 starts. Shields is 11-6 with a 3.22 ERA in his 22 career starts vs Toronto. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City today!

Rob Vinciletti

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

This one is too high a favorite to unit rate but for a free play were ok. Zack Greinke has produced a team record of 26-0 as a home favorite of more than -140, if his team did not blow a 5+ run lead in his last start. LA has won 25 of 32 vs losing teams and 4 of 5 as a home favorite in this range. The Padres have lost 20 of 30 vs winning teams. Greinke is 3-0 vs the Padres with a 2.37 era. He has won 10 of 11 here at home and has a 1.12 era in his last 3 starts. In home starts Greinke has won 7 of 8 home in September. T. Ross has been good this year, but the innings are starting to pile up and he has allowed 11 runs in his last 2 starts. We will back the Dodgers today.

Doug Upstone

Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies

Tyler Chatwood is looking to pick up where he left off after coming off the disabled list. He is 4-1 at Coors Field this season and has an ERA of 2.61 during day games. The Rox are the underdogs in this one and it is great chance to steal some value on MLB if the aftermath of a CFB Saturday pre NFL. Reds starter Mike Leake has been hit hard his last three starts too...and now he is pitching in the Humidor. Bad combo.

Dave Price

Milwaukee Brewers -113

Look for the Brewers to avoid being swept. They are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss and 6-2 in their last 8 in the third game of a series. Plus, they are in great hands with Lohse on the hill. He has a 3.14 ERA at home on the season. The Brewers are 7-1 in his last 8 starts, 8-1 in his last 9 home starts, 8-0 in his last 8 starts versus teams that have a losing record and 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. The Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 in the third game of a series. Plus, Wilson hasn't been as sharp on the road where he has a 4.43 ERA. Take Milwaukee.

Jack Jones

Baltimore Orioles +115

After losing the first two games of this series to the New York Yankees, the Baltimore Orioles will be highly motivated for a victory to avoid the sweep in Game 3 Sunday. I like their chances of getting a win due to the edge they have on the mound.

Wei-Yin Chen is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. The left-hander is 7-7 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 17 starts this season. New York is hitting just .247 and scoring 3.8 runs/game against left-handed starters in 2013.

Andy Pettite is 10-9 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in 24 starts this season for New York, including 4-4 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.597 WHIP in 11 home starts. Chen is 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA in his last two starts against New York, allowing four earned runs over 12 1/3 innings.

The Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Baltimore is 4-0 in its last 4 during game 3 of a series. The Orioles are 32-13 in their last 45 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Baltimore is 6-1 in Chen's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Orioles Sunday.

Jeff Alexander

Arizona D-backs -165

The Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 road games versus a left-handed starter, 1-7 in their last 8 Sunday games and 0-7 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. I expect these negative trends to be extended as they go up against Arizona's Corbin. The D-backs are 22-5 in the lefty's last 27 starts, including 10-1 in his last 11 versus division opponents. The Snakes are even 5-1 in Corbin's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. He was hit hard in Philly his last time out so I expect him to be very focused and determined this afternoon. The D-backs have won both of his starts against San Francisco this season, and he was dominant in each while outdueling Matt Cain. Bet the D-backs.

Vegas Connection

Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colorado Rockies

Great spot for Chatwood who just called up from Col Springs (Triple A) the former Angel can handcuff even potent Reds Lineup.

Bruce Marshall

Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics

It's been a big week for the A's, who have won five of six vs. playoff-likely Detroit and Tampa Bay outfits to move ahead of the Rays and into the first wild-card position while keeping the pressure on AL West-leading Texas. Tampa Bay's offense has scored only four runs in the first two games of this series, and it would seem as if Sunday starter Jamey Wright, who has pitched only out of the bullpen and has never worked beyond three innings this season, is going to need more sun support, especially considering his 4.56 career ERA vs. Oakland. note that the A's have also won in seven of Sunday starter A.J. Griffin's last ten starts.

Greg Shaker

Pittsburgh Pirates +100

Strong value here though with Pittsburgh beating the Devil out of St Louis and putting the into a poor mindset. Kelly is throwing smoke and mirrors with a good ERA but a very poor WHIP and K/BB Ratio. He is a bomb waiting to explode and with Morneau in the lineup now for Pitt this could be the day. Johnson a very capable starter for the Pirates, most likely a packed house at the game, and just simply a bad spot for the visitors to close out this series.