Joe Gavazzi
Ohio +21
Louisville is the clear favorite to win the title in the inaugural season of AAC play. The Cards come off an 11-2 SU season and have improved every season for 4th year HC Strong. That includes back to-back Big East titles. Led by Heisman candidate QB Bridgewater, his top 3 receivers, and the addition of RB Dyer (Auburn), as well as the entire defense, the Cards may find themselves a favorite in every game. But this team could be a bit fat after beating Rutgers for the league title and following it up with a 33-23 victory against Florida in their Bowl game. This has certainly not been a favorable role for HC Strong who is recently 3-6 ATS as non-Con HF, just 3-7 ATS -10+, including 0-3 ATS, -20+ L3Y. Far prefer the 3 TD Bobcats who were rolling at 7-0 SU (with whispers of BCS) before injury struck hard at mid-season claiming no fewer than 15 players, many of whom will be returning in 2013. The resulting 2-5 SU ATS finish at least culminated with a 45-15 Bowl victory v. La Monroe, once the Bobcats returned some of their walking wounded. In the last 2 seasons, for 9th year HC Solich, the Bobcats have recorded 19 wins with a balanced offense that has averaged 32/447 averaging 200+ running and passing yards in each of those two seasons In rounding out our coaching profile, consider that Solich is on an 18-9 ATS run as Underdog, including 5-1 ATS taking 10+. No surprise to this bureau if the Bobcats extend this into the 4th quarter.
SPORTS WAGERS
SASKATCHEWAN -14½ over Winnipeg
How can you take the Blue Bombers here? This guest is a train wreck right now with a 1-7 record and no established QB. The Bombers will go with Justin Goltz here, again, because Max Hall and Buck Pierce are both injured and Coach Tim Burke said that Goltz has “taken the most reps this week”. Burke also said, "I'm hoping by game time Max Halls’ hand will be 100 per cent in case we need him”. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for Goltz. Instead of building the kids confidence, Burke is tearing it down by suggesting that Goltz is starting only because he’s the only man standing. The Bombers continue to turn the ball over at an alarming rate and they also take more undisciplined and foolish penalties than any team in the CFL. The Bombers brought in a new offensive coordinator last week against Hamilton and the team couldn’t move five yards against a weak defense. From top to bottom, from offense to defense to special teams, the Bombers looked more confused out there than a moth on the Las Vegas strip. This predictable offense will now play in the most hostile environment in the CFL with nothing going for them.
The only way the Riders don’t cover here is if they show up in body only in much the same way they did against Montreal in Week 8, when, as a 12-point choice, Saskatchewan needed a last minute miracle to win outright. That scare should be fresh on their minds, as it happened just two weeks ago and the Riders coaches will drive that near setback into their minds. Saskatchewan played a strong game last week in Edmonton and they appear to be back on track after a couple of less than stellar performances. 14½-points is a steep price to pay but this is Labour Day weekend in the CFL, where teams always get jacked up to play in front of their home crowd. Last year, on Labour Day weekend, Winnipeg came in here and was trashed 52-0 by a Rider team that was inferior to this year’s edition. There will be no revenge this year.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH +103 over St. Louis
The Pirates have been beating up on these Cardinals. Pittsburgh defeated St. Louis four out of five games last month and it took the first two games of this series on Friday and Saturday, while outscoring St. Louis by a combined 12-1 count. Pittsburgh was a significant favorite in the first two games but come in as a pooch today because the pitching matchup appears to favor the visitor. We’re not so sure. Joe Kelly has appeared in 33 games for the Cardinals (12 as a starter) and comes in with a nifty looking 2.91 ERA. On paper, that’s pretty but under the hood, it’s a different tale. "Pedestrian" is the best way to describe Kelly’s skills. His lack of disaster starts looks encouraging but there is a big difference between disaster avoidance and dominance. Kelly has just six quality starts in those 12 games and the fact that he doesn't know how to miss bats, severely limits his upside. In 90 innings, Kelly has walked 34, while striking out just 59 for a horrible BB/K ratio. Over his last five starts covering 35 innings, Kelly walked 16 and struck out 18 for an even worse ratio. Kelly’s success is due to strand rate of 88%, which is on the extreme side of lucky. His xERA over his past five starts is 6.05, which is almost four runs higher than his actual ERA of 2.08 over that stretch. Rarely will you see a pitcher with these shaky skills maintain such a deceitful ERA over an extended run of games. Joe Kelly’s ERA is perhaps the most misleading in the game and we can almost guarantee you some regression in the final month.
To provide relief to an overtaxed bullpen, the Pirates summoned Kris Johnson from Triple-A on August 17. Johnson was originally selected in the supplemental first round of ’06 by the Red Sox before earning his release in the middle of ’11. He then signed with an independent league team for the remainder of that season before inking a minor league contract with Pittsburgh in December ’11. Johnson has served in a variety of roles throughout his career, including a formidable starter this season so he’s no stranger to starting. He has a long, lean frame at 6’4” 195 pounds and he uses his height to his advantage. His fastball sits between 88-93 mph, but he can cut it and keep it low in the zone. He doesn’t allow many fly-balls or HR (just 6 HR’s in 130 innings at Triple-A Indianapolis), but he exhibits a pitch-to-contact philosophy. Johnson throws with a clean, quick arm, which adds movement to his pitches. His curveball is below average while his change-up can be effective at times. If he continues to spot his pitches and throw consistent strikes, he has a chance to stay up here as a valuable swingman that is comfortable in any role. In his first taste of big-league ball, Johnson pitched six innings of relief in that marathon 16-inning game against Arizona. He allowed just five hits in six innings and was very effective. The Pirates have momentum, they have Justin Morneau now (he’ll be in the lineup today) and they’ll play to a full house this afternoon while facing an overvalued pitcher and a Cardinals team that has lost four of six and have scored two runs or less in all four losses. Wrong side favored.
N.Y. Mets +127 over WASHINGTON
Baseball is a strange game and when these two clubs hook up, it gets stranger. In five of the past 10 games that the Mets and Nats have played this season, the winning team has scored 10 runs or more. New York has wins of 11-3, 11-0 and 10-1 over that span while the Nats have victories of 14-1 and 13-2. The Mets figure to have a much better chance of going off on Ross Ohlendorf than the Nats do against Jonathon Niese. On July 26th, Ohlendorf threw a gem against the Mets, throwing 115 pitches and hitting 95 on the radar gun. In his next appearance, however, he couldn't top 85, was hit hard, and then placed on the disabled list. Ohlendorf returned On August 21 and to make a start against the Cubs and was knocked around for six hits (2 bombs) and four runs in 4.1 frames. He followed that up with a five-inning, three-hit, one run performance against the Marlins but that team could make Larry King look good. In Ohlendorf, you're looking at a mostly unsuccessful major league pitcher who had xERAs above 5.00 in both 2011 and 2012. He’s appeared in just 12 games this year, four as a starter. Over his career, Ohlendorf has appeared in 120 games, 77 as a starter and has a career ERA of 4.74 to go along with a career WHIP of 1.44. Not interested in Ohlendorf as the chalk.
We’re very interested in Niese as a pooch. Shoulder woes have held him Niese back in 2013 and subsequently landed him on the DL. That was then but since coming off the DL, Niese is thriving. He’s coming off a complete game, three-hit shutout against the Phillies on Tuesday. He induced 13 ground ball outs Tuesday and even drove in three runs. Niese has made four starts since coming off the DL and he has won his last three, compiling an impressive 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. In two of those outings he fanned nine hitters. There’s little question that Niese’s shoulder issues are behind him and he’s feeling a whole lot better. Niese has struck out 28 batters over his last 28 innings since coming off the DL, while issuing just six walks. This guy is strongly trending in the right direction and it’s also worth noting that the Nationals are among the worst hitting teams in the majors against southpaws.
Seattle -1½ +123 over HOUSTON
The Astros have scored two runs or fewer in four straight games. Over their last five games, all losses, Houston has scored eight runs and things don’t figure to get any easier here against Hisashi Iwakuma. Iwakuma has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his past nine starts, while pitching into the seventh inning in six of those. In 184 innings, Iwakuma has walked just 34 batters while striking out 157. Over his last three starts, Iwakuma has a 56% groundball rate and a miniscule 11% line-drive rate and that’s after facing Texas twice and the A’s once. Iwakuma takes a big step down in class here facing an Astros club that is seeing BB’s and that has won just 14 of their past 56 games.
For whatever reason, the Mariners thrive on Sunday’s. They’ve won seven of their past eight Sunday games and they’ve also won the first three games of this series. The M’s go for the sweep here and there’s nothing suggesting they won’t get it. Brett Oberholtzer has started just five games for the Astros since being called up in early July. Over the past two years at Triple-A, Oklahoma City, Oberholtzer started 18 games and had a BAA of .314 with an ERA over 6.00. He was expected to be a long man out of the bullpen when he was called up but the Astros are in evaluation mode for the short-term and as a result, they are handing the ball to him to see what he can do. Oberholtzer won’t wow you with his pedestrian stuff but he knows how to pitch with his strong, durable frame that eats innings. His ordinary pitches play up due to his clean, easy arm action and ability to repeat his arm speed and delivery. He throws strikes and commands his 89-92 mph fastball with precision but none of that served him well at Triple-AAA and it’s unlikely to serve him well at this level. Oberholtzer has a propensity for keeping the ball up in the zone and the result is a 30%/50% groundball/fly-ball split. He’s also been taken yard three times over his past two starts. The M’s big edge on the mound and at the plate has us leaning heavily towards the sweep.
Nick Parsons
NY Mets vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
After losing the opening two games of this series and sitting 7 1/2 games behind the Reds for the second NL wild-card spot, I look for Washington to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this matchup.
Jonathan Niese (6-6, 3.69 ERA)
Niese is coming off a complete game shutout of the Phillies on Tuesday, giving up three hits and one walk while striking out five in the 5-0 win.
The southpaw has given up two earned runs combined over his last 22 innings of work.
Note though that Niese owns an extremely pedestrian 5.73 ERA on the road this season.
Ross Ohlendorf (3-0, 2.49 ERA)
Ohlendorf gave up one run off three scattered hits and one walk while striking out three over five innings in his team's 2-1 victory over the Marlins on Tuesday.
The big right-hander has now allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts.
Ohlendorf has already enjoyed supreme success vs. the Mets this season as well, sporting a minuscule 2.00 ERA in two appearances.
The bottom line: The Mets offense took a major hit last night as first baseman Ike Davis is headed to the DL with a strained muscle on his right side:
"I doubt we see him," New York manager Terry Collins confirmed. "2013 is going to go down as a real frustrating year for Ike Davis."
Look for motivated Washington to solve Niese and salvage the finale. Lay the mid-sized price.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs -121
Philadelphia is a bad road team at 7-19 in their last 26 road games, and 8-21 as a road underdog. The offense is No. 27 in baseball in runs scored and on base percentage with no power. Starter Kyle Kendrick has lost three straight decisions and four of his last five. The Phillies are also 1-6 in Kendrick's last seven road starts against a team with a losing record. He faced the Cubs earlier this year and allowed 5 runs (4 earned) in six innings. The Phillies are 4-14 in their last 18 road games vs. a right-handed starter and face Chicago righty Jake Arrieta, who is 2-1 at Wrigley Field in 31 innings where opponents hit .194 off him. The Cubs held on for a 4-3 win Saturday and get another win today. Play the Cubs.
Sean Higgs
Ohio vs. Louisville
Play: Ohio +21½
I do like UL but I can't count out Ohio. They were playing great ball last year until getting hit by the injury bug. Cards will have a lot of pressure on them. Bobcats have a QB in Tettleton and RB in Blankenship who can work the clock and make plays. This is a big number vs an offense that score.
Joe Duffy
Colorado vs. Colorado St
Play: Over 48½
Mike MacIntyre is the new CU coach and while he has kept things a mystery, is very likely to increase the pace with his pistol formation. Last year, it produced an astounding 446.2 yards and 34.7 points a game a year ago when he was calling the shots at San Jose State.
The Buffs have their top three rushers and top three receivers back, as well as three starters on the offensive line and a dangerous receiver who sat out last year after knee surgery in junior Paul Richardson.
CSU is also expected to open it up. Rashard Higgins, a 6-foot-2, 180-pound speedster from Mesquite, Texas, beat out three other talented true freshmen as well as redshirt freshman Jordon Vaden for a starting receiver spot. He’s got the size and speed to stretch the field in a way that the Rams weren’t able to do last season.
Speedy freshman will touch the call a lot for the Rams, which means big plays. Both teams are likely to open things up. Again, handicapping totals is so much more about pace than offensive or defensive competence. With a fairly low total, this soars over.
Big Kat Sports
Ohio vs. #216 Louisville
Take: Ohio +20.5
The Louisville Cardinals, who are a National Title contender, may have their hands full this afternoon when the Ohio Bobcats come to town. The Cardinals will be looking for back to back BCS Bowl appearances as they are the cream of the crop in whatever the new conference is called that they play in. It has teams from the old Big East and some from Conference USA and this is the only year that the winner will be an AQ to a BCS game. It doesn’t look like the Bobcats can win this one outright but they should be able to keep things close throughout the contest. Tyler Tettleton is a very good dual-threat QB and the senior really manages the game well and doesn’t really make mistakes. He threw only 4 picks last year with 18 TD’s and over 2800 yards. The Bobcats also have a workhorse running back in Beau Blankenship who went for over 1600 yard s in 2012 and a WR crew will be able to get open against a Louisville D that allowed nearly 24 PPG last season. Look for Louisville to blitz Tettleton a ton under a new package installed by DC Vance Bradford, but this strategy may backfire a bit as Tettleton has been known throughout his career to make plays downfield while on the run. Louisville gets the win this afternoon but it’ll be a lot closer than the experts predict. Take Ohio plus the points.
Tony Stoffo
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
Strong umpire trend in effect here calling for a play on the Cubbies here. Favorites are 18-2 in last 20 games that Bob Davidson has been the home plate umpire - too strong of a trend to let pass by here. Chicago the play here. Phillies are 1-6 in Kendrick's last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Phillies are 0-4 in Kendrick's last 4 starts as an underdog. Phillies are 0-4 in Kendrick's last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the LA Dodgers on the run line over the San Diego Padres.
It's almost too easy to take the Dodgers these days, especially against teams from the inept NL West division. They continue to run out their stud pitchers and dominating everyone that gets in their way.
If it's not Kershaw, it's Ryu. If it's not Ryu, it's Nolasco. If it's not Nolasco, it's Zack Greinke... and that's who they will run out there today.
Greinke has been just as good as the rest of them, and at times he's the best pitcher in the rotation.
Greinke is 13-3 with a 2.86 ERA and has won his last six decisions, including a near complete game shutout vs. the Cubs in his last start.
He's 2-0 in his career vs. the Padres with a 2.37 ERA and is 7-1 with a 2.29 ERA in 10 starts at home this season.
Tyson Ross, to his own right, has been pretty good this year as well... but simply doesn't get the run support he needs to leave with a chance at a win. He is 3-7 on the season because he's getting less than 3 runs per game of support.
It should be close and low scoring for a while, but in the end the Dodgers are simply too strong at home for the Padres.
2♦ L.A. DODGERS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Your free play winner for this Sunday comes in college football as I back Colorado and Colorado State to hold Under the posted total.
Here you have a 1st year coach in Mike Macintyre who takes over the rebuilding Buffaloes, and a 2nd year coach in Jim McElwain with a Rams team that was not exactly an offensive "juggernaut" last year. Colorado State opened the year by scoring 22 points or less in each of their first 7 games, and that includes their 22-17 season opening win over Colorado in Denver.
Colorado was similarly offensively-challenged last season, as they were held to 17 points or less in 8 of their 12 games overall last year, and that is part of the reason former San Jose State coach Macintyre was hired to take over for Jon Embree.
The last 5 times these in-state rivals have played have ended up holding Under the total, and 7 of the last 9 series meetings overall between the teams have ended up Under as well.
New season, but nothing changes here. Colorado and Colorado State to hold low.
2♦ COLORADO-COLORADO STATE UNDER
Brett Atkins
My free winner for Sunday is on the Oakland Athletics, laying a cheap price over the Tampa Bay Rays, as the American League wild-card race continues to heat up.
I'm not sure what happened to the Tampa Bay Rays, but it appears to me their playoff hopes are fading, as they've lost six of seven thanks to a futile offense. The slumping have lost three in a row and after yesterday's 2-1 loss and I think the A's are in the right spot to pounce, as they look to better position themselves for the postseason.
The Athletics have now five of their last six and have moved ahead of the Rays by 1-1/2 games for the first American League wild-card spot, while the Rays are in front of the New York Yankees by 3-1/2 games for the second.
This one is about momentum, as the A's will complete the sweep.
1♦ OAKLAND
Chris Jordan
Yesterday my free pick was the UCLA Bruins cashing in over the UNR Wolfpack. That was too easy. Today I lay another big chalk for you for free, as I like the Louisville Cardinals in their kickoff-game to the regular season, against the Ohio Bobcats, who are about to get an up-close meeting with Teddy Bridgewater.
I have the utmost respect for Ohio coach Frank Solich. But his Bobcats are going to get worked.
Don't get me wrong, a guy like him will have his troops ready to roll and fully prepared for this season-opener, but to think the Bobcats will be able to hang with one of the most complete teams in the nation is ludicrous. Not for 60 minutes.
The ninth-ranked Cardinals are led by Heisman Trophy-candidate Teddy Bridgewater, who leads an offensive unit that ranked 52nd in the nation last year, and could be a top 10 powerhouse this year.
The defenders on Ohio's defense have never faced a quarterback like Bridgewater, I'm sure of it, as this kid could very well be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 draft. Last year he accounted for 27 touchdowns. This year he is wiser and more mature. And his ability to recognize all his targets and utilize his entire unit will tell the tale after today.
The main ingredient there, lending to his diversity, will be running back Senorise Perry, who will make his first career start. He returns to the lineup after tearing his ACL on Nov. 10 against Syracuse, and I think he's going to have a huge impact in helping this offense.
On the other side of the ball, the 'Cats will have to contend with a Louisville defense that smothered the normally dangerous Florida Gators a stunning Sugar Bowl upset in January. Defensive coordinator Vance Bedford knows the potential of greatness with EVERYBODY back.
This one gets ugly!
5♦ LOUISVILLE