Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 11,2011

BEN BURNS

Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers
PICK: Winnipeg Blue Bombers -5.5

All-Time Documented NFL Champion Ben Burns closed out last NFL season w/ a victory on Green Bay, improving to a REMARKABLE 13-2 in Superbowls. It also brought him to 15-4 his L19 NFL & completed a PERFECT 6 FOR 6 SWEEP w/ his playoff sides. Ben, who SWEPT THE BOARD again yesterday, was a WICKED 8-1 in Week 1 last year!

I won with Saskatchewan last week. I began that writeup by saying the following: "While the Bombers may be the biggest "overachievers" in the league, the Riders have been the biggest "underachievers." As a result, we're getting the Riders as a home underdog here. Given that I expect them to win outright, I believe that's providing us with excellent value...

I went on to give my reasons for why I believed the Riders would win. Sure enough, the Riders won 27-7.

That was at Saskatchewan though. This week, its the Bombers playing on their home field. This week, having just been embarrassed, the Bombers may be the more motivated squad.

The Bombers are 12-5-2 ATS their last 20 home games. They've gone 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS here this season. They also won 31-2 in the lone meeting here with the Riders last season. Consider laying the points.

James PatrickSports

Falcons vs. Bears
Play: Falcons

The NFC’s top two teams during last year’s regular season kick off 2011 when Atlanta visits Chicago for a Week 1 matchup.The Falcons were road warriors a year ago (6-2 SU and ATS away from Atlanta). Atlanta made two major offseason moves, one on either side of the ball. The team signed former Vikings DE Ray Edwards (8 sacks in 14 games last year) to a big-money deal, giving it a pass-rushing complement to John Abraham in an attempt to upgrade a mediocre pass rush. They also traded a boatload of draft picks to get WR Julio Jones sixth overall in the draft. Jones brings the same run-blocking ability as departed starter Michael Jenkins, but has far more upside as a receiver. The Falcons passing game could be far more explosive if Jones becomes a threat opposite Roddy White, something Jenkins never became and something aging TE Tony Gonzalez can longer be. It could be especially key considering 29-year-old RB Michael Turner is unlikely to have success running the ball against a Bears defense that allowed an NFC-low (90.1) rushing yards per game in 2010. Chicago’s biggest issue last year was the passing offense. QB Jay Cutler was his usual erratic self in his first year under offensive coordinator Mike Martz, but he got little help from arguably the NFL’s worst offensive line and receiving corps.

Tony George

NY Giants vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins +3

Redskins home opener here. If you look at what the Giants did in the offseason, they depleted Eli Manning’s arsenal of weapons, namely Smith at WR and Boss at TE. This is huge folks, have no illusions. If you look at the preseason injury report to the defense, they lost 3 cornerbacks and 2 linebackers and have one of their studs out at DE. WOW. Yet the Giants on name recognition and pre-conceived notions that the Skins are going stink up this year, have the Giants as a road favorite to open the season against a division rival. Rex Grossman took the Bears to the Super Bowl and gets the start over highly liked and touted John Beck, because he earned it. No matter what you think of him, the kid can make plays.

Washington’s running game with Hightower has vaulted to the next level, and I like them in this game to be a LIVE DOG. Many have back pedaled on early predictions that Washington might win 5 games all year, I am one of the after seeing the preseason, and while they are not a playoff contender, they will compete in every game under Shanahan, I assure you, and being a home dog is huge motivation, and against a team not at 100 percent, or near it on defense, the Skins will score and I feel there is no way that Washington in their current state, whether Cooley plays or not, are a 6 point pup here, given the fact the 3 point home advantage added to any power rating puts this at a pickem type game, yet they get 3 points. Also make a nice half of a 6 point tease getting them to +9 in that scenario.

John Ryan

Pittsburgh / Baltimore Over

5* graded play ‘OVER” Pittsburgh/Baltimore set to start at 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 11, 2011. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that 36 or more points will be scored in this game.

This represents my first pick here at the John Ryan NFL thread and I will certainly do my best to provide not just solid winning picks, but the comprehensive research why you can bet the play with confidence. I have 18 years of sports handicapping experience, but that is diminished with the start of every new season. I do believe that if you follow these pays and bet a disciplined amount per unit for the entire season you will have an excellent opportunity make some money and learn a ton about football strategies and schemes.

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 22-4 ‘OVER’ for 85% winners since 1983. Play ‘OVER” with any team against the posted total in a game involving two divisional rivals who had good records in the previous season winning between 60% and 75% of their games. Over the past 10 complete seasons this system has produced a perfect 8-0 ‘OVER’ mark. Moreover, 54% of the games played went ‘over’ the posted total by seven or more points.

In past years the first thing that came to mind was defensive war. but these two teams have evolved into more balanced teams with more offensive weapons entering the 2011 season. The Steelers ranked 14th in the NFL gaining 225.1 passing yards per game and 11th gaining 120.3 rushing yards per game. Baltimore ranked 20th in the NFL gaining 208.4 passing yards per game and 14th rushing the ball gaining 114.4 yards per game. I fully expect these offenses to improve and this could be a long-shot AFC Championship matchup.

Baltimore will be able to use the ball control passing attack to open up the running game led by their power back Ray Rice, who is 5-8, 212 pounds. He does not elite speed, but he has a very low center of gravity making it difficult for would-be tacklers to bring him down by themselves. He is also a threat to reach the perimeter of any defense and the Steelers will have to respect that fact and not get pinched in the middle of the defensive front. He also has great hands and this is where he is vastly under rated. In play action pass plays, Rice will be a safety valve that gain chucks of yards in space.

I have him rated as the third best back in the NFL behind Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson. I know many would argue that Marice Jones-Drew, Jamaal Charles, and Arain Foster are better, but I will stick my guns and let’s see where he is ranked in total yards gained from scrimmage at the midpoint of the season.

Ravens quarterback Flacco is at his best in the play action schemes where he has time to run through his progressions and hit the correct receiver. Pittsburgh can counter this with pressure up the middle, but many times you will see Flacco look toward one side of the field after the snap then read the movement of the safety and then throw his passes counter to that safety movement. When in cover-2 situations hitting the tight end on slants is a high percentage pass that will negate interior pressure from the Steelers.

The Ravens been known for their defensive strength and intimidation factor, but they will have difficulty gambling with pressure against a very good Steeler offensive line. Even when Roethlisberger is flushed he is strong enough physically and has the superior arm strength to still execute vertical pass plays. Baltimore has to be blitzing at the right times when the Steelers are using their backs to sit in the flat or to be engaged in pass routes and not held back fro pass protection.

In a near mirror look to baltimore, the Steelers will use the ball control pass plays to establish the power running game. This in turn will get play action situations for Roethlisberger to exploit that will be in man coverage. Take the ‘OVER’

Stephen Nover

St Louis Rams +5

Much of the preseason hype was on the Eagles. No team created a bigger splash in free agency than Philadelphia.

But right now the Eagles have glaring weaknesses that are being underpubliczed due to the continued publicity of Michael Vick and newcomers Nnamdi Asomugha, Dominque-Rodgers Cromartie and Cullen Jenkins.

The Eagles should be a lot better defensively - in time. Don't forget they gave up a franchise-worst 31 touchdown passes last year while having one of the worst Red Zone defenses of the past 25 years.

The Eagles have yet to adequately replace the late Jim Johnson, who was a defensive coaching guru. Their latest defensive coordinator is Juan Castillo, who has no experience on defense having been an offensive line coach. The Eagles' linebackers look extremely vulnerable right now.

Philadelphia's offensive line also is in transition.

While the Eagles are overrated, the Rams are under the radar screen. Steve Spagnualo has improved the defense. St. Louis has a very good offensive line, an emerging superstar in Sam Bradford and an upgraded receiver corps. Cut is Donnie Avery, who was St. Louis' best receiver last year before getting hurt. That tells you something.

The Eagles are playing on an off-surface and have a marquee matchup next week when they play the Falcons, Vick's former team, in the Sunday night matchup.

The Eagles have to firm up a lot of areas. They aren't the super team yet that some envision. This is a great spot for the Rams. They have improved enough to take advantage to not only cover the spread, but win the game straight-up.

John Ryan

Buffalo / Kansas City Under

I do like the Buffalo defense and the respective matchups against the Chiefs offensive makeup. The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will hold Kansas City to 21 or fewer points. In past games where Buffalo held an opponent to 15 to 21 points they produced a 29-11 UNDER record since 1992.

Moreover, the simulator shows that buffalo will gain 300 to 350 net passing yards in a far more balanced attack than what was the norm in 2010 games. In past games where Buffalo achieved this level of offensive performance they went 20-7 UNDER since 1992.

Kansas City has not come flying out of the gate to start an NFL season. They have struggled to gain offensive continuity and have focused squarely on the defensive side of the game. This is noted in the fact that they are a solid 27-9 UNDER making 17.1 units per one unit wagered in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.

As of September 4, Matt Cassell was downgraded to expected to miss Sunday's game with disclosed rib injuries. He either has a severely bruised rib or a crack in the rib. Even if he starts he will not be effective throwing the ball especially after taking a few hits or getting sacked. No matter the extent of the injury it is going to be painful and it will limit the offensive playbook. It is better to go with the back-up given that it is Week1 so that Cassell can get the healing time he needs to start in Week 2.

Tyler Palko will take his place and is a solid under rated quarterback. Still, with his glaring inexperience the Chiefs will elect to establish their power running game that ranked first in the NFL gaining 219.9 yards per game in 2010. All of these factors lend itself to a game played mostly between the 20's and with more than 60% of the plays being running plays. Take the UNDER.

Tony Karpinski

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -5

Seattle has made many big changes on their team and Tarvaris Jackson leading the Seahawks will be interesting. This cat isn't even a good backup QB. New head coach Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco has decided to give Alex Smith another crack as his QB; we will see how that works as SF has the better defense and the better running game to go along with home field. They now have some more weapons around him adding Braylon Edwards as another threat receiving the ball. Gore, who played awful against Seattle last year (2.2/carry) will play well again on Sunday. SF by 10

Carlo Campanella

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -6

Kansas City was one of the best home teams last season, owning a 7-1 SU record at home, with their only loss coming during the final week of the season. They won 4 of those 8 home games by 18 points or more (18, 20, 21 & 22 points) and get another weak opponent to victimize Week #1 as Buffalo heads to Kansas City on Sunday. Chiefs Head Coach Todd Haley improved from a 4-12 SU rookie season to 10-6 SU last year and expect him to have his Chiefs ready to handle a Bills squad that was just 4-12 SU last season that struggled on offense while putting up 19 points or less in 12 of 16 games (and was held to 10 points or less in 5 games)!

Ultimate Sport Picks

Eagles vs. Rams
Play: Over 44

Take the Over in this match-up. There will be speed, speed and more speed on the field, and oh yeah, it is on turf. The Rams are going to have a very hard time slowing down the Eagles. Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy are hard enough to stop on grass but this weekend there will be a new "Greatest Show On Turf." Do not sleep on the Rams, they will be able to move the ball too. Sam Bradford should spread the Eagles out with early pass attempts, which should open things up for Steven Jackson to run against an Eagles front seven that has had trouble stopping the run. This will be a very entertaining game that you do not want to miss. This total should hit the high 40's and most likely will land in the 50's.

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON +135 over N.Y. Giants

It’s near impossible to lose five defensive starters for the season before a regular season snap has taken place. Yet, that’s exactly where the Giants find themselves and if you think they can just plug in suitable replacements, you’re in for a surprise. The preseason means nothing, true, but giving up an average of 13 yards per catch in the preseason like the G-Men did is a tell tale sign of things to come. Res Grossman can move the chains if he’s given time to scan the field. He’ll be able to if the Skins can establish a running game and everything points to them doing just that. Eli Manning has talent, but can be very erratic without the aid of an effective running game. Look for defensive coordinator Jim Haslett to be aggressive with a mix of eight-man fronts as well as zone run blitzes. The Giants also lost a couple of offensive guys in the off-season as both Steve Smith and Kevin Boss left via free agency. The Giants are in a lot of trouble but they’re taking most of the money this week as more of a fade against Washington. That’s a red flag. The Skins struggled in 2010 but with a strong linebacking corps (London Fletcher, Ryan Kerrigan, Rocky McIntosh and Brian Orakpo) and a solid running game, the Redskins figure to be more competitive than many believe this season and that may be displayed right here. Skins outright. Play: Washington +135 (Risking 2 units).

ST. LOUIS +4½ over Philadelphia

Turn on any radio sports talk show about three weeks ago and all you heard was Eagles. On TV previews and in football publications it was Eagles, Eagles and more Eagles. The media can really overhype teams and after an extremely aggressive offseason by Philadelphia's front office, expectations are through the roof for this franchise. The Eagles retooled defensively after allowing a franchise-worst 31 touchdown passes last year. While that weakness figures to improve with off-season signings of key cornerbacks, there are still issues on this team that leave something to be desired. Notably, Michael Vick may have to run in order to cover for his troublesome offensive line and Vick takes a ton of risks -- many of them unnecessary -- when delivering the football. Everything aligned right for Vick last season but in this league, without protection, big trouble is awaiting. The Rams have really turned things around. Conversely, they have a solid front-line protecting their franchise quarterback and Sam Bradford has the skills and intellect to take advantage. The Rams have a vast stable of pass catchers. St. Louis’s strong coaching staff cut some decent players this year, indicating the true depth of this emerging team. They can definitely compete here against this overvalued favorite. Very tempting to play the Rams on money line but we’ll wait ‘til Sunday and likely get the Rams +4½ + a little juice. Play: St. Louis +4½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Cincinnati +6½ over CLEVELAND

It’s easy to bang on the Bengals. Dysfunctional doesn’t begin to describe what goes on in Cincinnati annually. As much as the Eagles were overhyped before this season, the Bengals were the complete opposite in that they’ve been the target of disgrace by every media outlet there is. How bad has it been? Carson Palmer left 10 million on the table. Palmer basically paid over 10 million dollars to not be associated with this team any more and now Andy Dalton steps in. Dalton is talented but he’s still a rookie with not a lot of offensive weapons. Thing is, the Brownies pass rush was non-existent a year ago and they didn’t do much to improve. Give any NFL QB time and he’ll succeed. Having rid of its malcontents and having the chance to face its in-state rivals, this Cincy team can expel their humiliation with a solid effort here. The Brownies are under new direction in 2011 with head coach Pat Shurmur at the helm. The Browns appear to be improving but not enough to warrant this big of a tag as a divisional favorite. Cleveland has suffered some significant pre-season injuries, they still lack quality wide-outs and they have a lot more to prove before they can be endorsed laying points like this. Play: Cincinnati +6½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

Tennessee +117 over JACKSONVILLE

The Titans are coming off a horrible year. They went 6-10 and lost seven of its final eight games. Subsequently, the Titans cleaned house in terms of the coaching staff and QB’s. Owner Bud Adams promoted offensive line coach Mike Munchak to head coach and the Titans got rid of Kerry Collins and Vince Young. Enter Matt Hasselbeck and his young prodigy, Jake Locker. Hasselbeck accomplished more in Seattle with no talent around him then most would have. He’s an established and proven QB that can do some real damage, especially against weak teams. Hasselbeck can now look around the huddle and see both three-time Pro Bowl running back Chris Johnson and top receiver Kenny Britt. The Titans may be a team that’s being overlooked this year, as they can run, they have a very decent defense and with Hasselbeck back there, the passing game is 100% guaranteed to improve. Meanwhile, in a stunning move, the Jags released David Garrard less than a week before the season starts. One really has to wonder if that was a football move or a financial one because Luke McCown has proven nothing in his career with one win in seven attempts as the starting QB. Nice. Jacksonville does have one of the game's best running backs in Maurice Jones- Drew, however, a one-dimensional offense can’t succeed too often at this level. The Titans are superior at QB, on defense, in playmakers and everywhere else. The Jags have a price to pay for releasing Garrard and saving a crap-load of dough and that price will be paid on opening day. Play: Tennessee +117 (Risking 2 units).

Buffalo +6 over KANSAS CITY

Add coach Todd Haley to the dwindling list of “old-school” coaches that have no idea how to handle new-school athletes. Win at any cost, eh coach? Even in the preseason? We thought we had seen everything until we saw Haley’s approach this past preseason. In his world, you play your starters the whole game in the last preseason game. Injuries? Pffft. Matt Cassell is scheduled to start after taking a big blow to the ribs in the teams’ preseason finale. Cassell was listed as doubtful at the beginning of the week but has been upgraded to probable. However, he was hurt badly and he’s a single hit away from watching from the rail. K.C. made the playoffs last year thanks to the schedule maker that had the Chiefs playing every dreg in the league. They played Cleveland, Oakland twice, Buffalo, Jacksonville, San Fran, Denver, Arizona, Tennessee and Seattle before getting torched in the playoffs, 31-7 by the Ravens. The Chiefs did little to improve. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted, that all too brief vacation from the list of teams that football forgot. The Bills came in here last season and lost 13-10 in OT in a game they were clearly the better team in. Buffalo is banking on Ryan Fitzpatrick, a career backup castoff by two other teams, developing into a high-caliber NFL quarterback after he put together an encouraging 2010 season in his first real shot to be a starter. The Bills weren't as bad as last year's record indicated, as three of the 12 losses came in overtime and the team went 4-4 over the second half after losing its first eight games. Defensively, the Bills were awful last season but figure to be better this season. The secondary shapes up as one of the Bills' strengths. Cornerbacks Terrence McGee and Drayton Florence are both quality cover men with substantial game experience, while ball-hawking free safety Jairus Byrd has garnered 10 interceptions in two years and made the Pro Bowl as a rookie in 2009. Hell, the Bills may even be the better team in this matchup and if they’re worse, it’s by the slimmest of margins. Laying points with bad teams is bad strategy, laying six points is suicide. Bills cannot only cover, but they can and probably will win this one outright. Play: Buffalo +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

THE REST with no wagers:

Steelers (0-0) at Ravens (0-0)

Baltimore primed for big season and nothing would start it off better than a victory here. Ravens have the personnel to take back this division while the Steelers appear to be aging. Super Bowl losers have not fared well in subsequent openers with zero wins and just two covers in past 11 seasons. Taking RAVENS –1½

Falcons (0-0) at Bears (0-0)

Atlanta may turn out to be the better team over the long haul but right now, this price seems out of whack. Bears were a division winner and with a Julius Peppers led defense and playing on a grass surface, the hosts become the prudent choice. Taking BEARS +3

Lions (0-0) at Buccaneers (0-0)

Lions could have a huge year but hype has set this line in the wrong place. Tampa was an impressive 10-6 last season and they have just as much promise with some blooming young stars. Asking the Bucs to merely win this game is not a demanding request at all. Taking BUCCANEERS –1

Colts (0-0) at Texans (0-0)

Texans are in best shape ever to seize this division, especially now with Peyton Manning on the shelf for an undetermined time. However, despite Manning’s absence, this seems like overcompensation for a Houston team that has continually disappointed. Taking COLTS +8½

Panthers (0-0) at Cardinals (0-0)

Bo Jackson recently compared Cam Newton to Dan Marino, John Elway and Michael Vick. Bo doesn’t know football. Newton and his Panthers are in for a long season but we’re still not prepared to spot a full touchdown with a Cardinals team that is banged up, has a suspect running game and is unfamiliar with its new quarterback. Taking PANTHERS +7

Seahawks (0-0) at 49ers (0-0)

Thank goodness for Sunday Ticket. These two could be even worse than last season. The only saving grace for either is that they play in a weak division and that they get to play each other twice. Not prepared to spot any points with Alex Smith and this inept Niners offense. Taking SEAHAWKS +5½

Vikings (0-0) at Chargers (0-0)

The Chargers were tops in both offence and defense statistically last year yet managed to miss the playoffs. While we expect this behavior to stop at some point, we currently don’t have the confidence to be giving away prohibitive points with this erratic host. Taking VIKINGS +8½

Steve Janus

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5

The Chiefs needed every bit of overtime to beat the Bills 13-10 at home last season, but I have a good feeling that won't be the case this time around. Buffalo came into that game 0-6, which likely had the Chiefs looking ahead to their game against division rival Oakland the following week. Buffalo had the worst rush defense in the NFL, while the Chiefs had the No. 1 rated rush offense. Buffalo might be able to keep this game close, but I look for the Chiefs to pull away with big plays late and win this game by at least 10 points.

Jimmy Moore

Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -1.5

I know the Lions are looking like a real team finally but hold on before you jump on them here. Detroit beat Tampa in OT last year in Tampa which kept the Bucs out of the playoffs. That is pretty strong revenge motivation. Also I need to see a regular season game look good from Detroit before buying the hype. Finally is will be a tough go late in this game for Detroit since the Tampa heat and humidity will take it's toll on the northern team.

Brad Diamond Sports

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: San Diego Chargers -8½

Our initial NFL selection came up big with Green Bay on Thursday evening. Now kick back into action with a SMASHING balanced football team in the San Diego Chargers. San Diego did not hit pay dirt last year because of a 2-5 start. They went onto a great season statistically, though finishing #1 in total defense and #1 in total offense. On defense the Chargers have a great shot replicating numbers of last year, especially with former Colts safety Sanders in the starting lineup. Against the run, the defense held 10 teams to under 4 yards per carry in 2010. If the DL and LB group is to be successful this week, RB Peterson will have to be held in check as the Vikings are wholly dependent on his inside success. Critical, offensively, will be the development of QB McNabb in his first field take wearing the Purple and White. The Chargers have stated on all summer, they are determined to come up big early this season as they start with Minnesota and then follow with games against New England, KC, Miami and Denver. If the Chargers defeat the Patriots at NE in week #2 they will be 5-0 before going into a major battle with the Jets in October. Remember the Chargers lost to KC to start 2010, that will not happen here as the club is really fired up. In the last eight games San Diego is 55-25 SU. Technically, the Vikings are 1-5 ATS as road dog (0-6 ATS in this price range), while falling off ATS LY going 5-10-1 ATS overall, and 1-3 ATS LY vs. the AFC. San Diego fields with a 35-17-2 ATS mark as a HF in this price range.

Marc Lawrence

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
PICK: Indianapolis Colts +10

The obvious concern in this contest is all about ‘Peyton’s brace’ with the Colts’ MVP sitting out the entire pre-season with complications from neck surgery during the offseason. As a result, his 227 consecutive games starting streak (second to Brett Favre’s 321) ends today. We could tell you about Indy’s 16-2 all-time SU mark in this series (favored all 18 games), or its brilliant 38-10 SU log in division play since 2003 (with only five losses by more than three points), but it was all built around No. 18. The Texans and their new-look defense will be anxious for blood as they smell an opportunity to become the new sheriff in town… for the time being, anyway. The bottom line is this is a huge impost for a team that regularly finds ways to lose in this series. With the Colts 10-3 ATS as dogs the last five years and the Texans 1-3 ATS in their franchise history as favorites of nine or more, the points become the play today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Indianapolis.