MTi Sports
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Titans underwent a major overhaul in the off-season. They have a new quarterback, a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new offensive coordinator. To top it off, Chris Johnson held out the entire preseason. We expect the Titans to improve as the season wears on, but here, they should have a lot of problems. Most people are taking the cutting of David Garrard as a bad sign for the Jaguars. However, it was the right move. Luke McCown is not a rookie QB. He is thirty years old and this is his third year with the team. He had a better preseason than Garrard and he is a lot hungrier than Garrard. The timing of the release of Garrard was not ideal, but it was the right move.
Marc Lawrence
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts
The obvious concern in this contest is all about ‘Peyton’s brace’ with the Colts’ MVP sitting out the entire preseason with complications from neck surgery during the offseason. As a result, his 227 consecutive games starting streak (second to Brett Favre’s 321) ends today. We could tell you about Indy’s 16-2 all-time SU mark in this series (favored all 18 games), or its brilliant 38-10 SU log in division play since 2003 (with only five losses by more than three points), but it was all built around No. 18. The Texans and their new-look defense will be anxious for blood as they smell an opportunity to become the new sheriff in town… for the time being, anyway. The bottom line is this is a huge impost for a team that regularly finds ways to lose in this series. With the Colts 10-3 ATS as dogs the last five years and the Texans 1-3 ATS in their franchise history as favorites of nine or more, the points become the play today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Indianapolis.
Teddy Covers
Seahawks @ 49ers
PICK: Under 37.5
As we saw quite clearly in Thursday Night’s opener between the Saints and the Packers, teams that enter the season with their offenses firmly in place are quite capable of executing at a high level. But what happens when virtually nothing is in place for either team from a season ago? We’ll find out when the 49ers and Seahawks square off; a game that has the potential to be very, very ugly for football purists and fans alike.
The new kickoff rules ensure that most drives following a score will start from the 20 yard line. And these are two offenses that are simply incapable of driving 80 yards for a touchdown. Seattle’s offensive line is a mess. Their big free agent signing, Robert Gallery, isn’t expected to suit up for the opener. It the same story with their big addition at wide receiver, Sidney Rice. Tavaris Jackson looked like the QB who was booed off the field in Minnesota throughout the preseason. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell will have a very steep learning curve installing his playbook in his first season under Pete Carroll.
It’s not going to be much easier for 49ers OC Greg Roman. San Francisco has been down this road many times before with QB Alex Smith – learning a new offense behind a suspect offensive line. At no point in the preseason did San Francisco’s first string offense move the football effectively against an opposing first string defense. Don’t expect a sudden, magical explosion in terms of offensive execution on Sunday. Take the Under.
Freddy Wills
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Play: Buffalo Bills +6
Chiefs are over rated and now they got Matt Cassel who is injured with a rib injury not sure how that may impact his twisting and throwing but it can't be good. Then we have a repeat of an OT loss for the Bills last year. I don't see how it could get worse for the Bills their top 2 WR were held in check and their 31st ranked run defense gave up nearly 300 yards to the Chiefs #1 run offense yet they almost won the game. This year the Bills front 7 is improved and I think they can pressure Cassel a bit with Merriman, Kyle Williams and Barnett. Don't forget the new addition rookie Marcel Dareus who should help clog up holes at 320 lbs and a real talent. Chiefs were 4-16 on 3rd downs a year ago so the Bills defense were better than the stats indicated. I think Ryan Fitzpatrick is under rated and he's got two running backs that can do damage in Jackson and Spiller. Look for this to be a close game decided in the 4th, the Chiefs are over rated.
Dave Cokin
Minnesota Vikings vs San Diego Chargers
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are being pegged for the NFC North cellar by most observers. The Chargers are again on the short list of top contenders to win the AFC and they're huge favorites to roll to a division crown. That's all conjecture at this point. One fact stands out for me here. The Chargers are about as slow out of the gate as it gets, and with Norv Turner still in charge, I can see more of the same this season. Huge number gets me to the Vikings side in this game.
Joe Gavazzi
Tennessee Titans -2
The Titans look for a bounce back season following their 6-10 SU debacle of 2010. They will look to do so with new HC Munchak and new QB Hasselbeck. Their strengths on offense are a veteran OL while on defense it is a quality secondary. Running back Jones-Drew is the headliner for the Jag's offense. These 2 split their season series last year with Jacksonville losing here 30-3 before getting their revenge by a 17-6 count in Tennessee. Look for meaningful improvement from a Jacksonville defense that allowed 26 PPG on 372 yards last year. And for the Jag's to continue their strong work over land as they gained 149 RYPG last season.
Detroit Lions +1.5
Each of these teams authored turn around seasons in 2010. They are expected to continue that upward trend this season. I'm a bit concerned that I've selected what I consider to be the obvious side in this. It has been backed by a lot of public money. After all we do have a 6-10 Detroit team from last year who is priced as the superior team while visiting a 10-6 Buc team from last year. Each team features emerging signal callers with Detroit's Stafford facing off against Tampa Bay's Freeman. But the Lions are clearly the hotter team. They were 13-3 ATS in 2010, have a 7-1 ATS series record, and face a Tampa Bay team which is just 3-15-1 ATS on this field of late. Clinching factor in this selection, however, is the superior line play on each side of the ball featured by the Lions. If they can survive the humidity of early September in Florida they can get this expected win.
Atlanta Falcons -2.5
This is a game 1 match up of NFC playoff combatants. Though the Falcons had the number 1 seed it was Chicago who ascended to the NFC Championship game. Both of course were eliminated by the eventual Super Bowl Champion Packers. Fundamentally this would be a classic NFL match up featuring Atlanta's superior offense that averaged 26 PPG LY vs. Chicago's superior defense which allowed just 18 PPG LY. Though the grass field of Chicago may reduce some of the offensive speed edge of the Falcons skill positioned players we still side with Atlanta in this, who is a long-term 14-6 ATS away including 5-1 ATS RF in 2010.
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
How about this for irony! Kansas City spends the entire month of August playing vanilla football trying to avoid injury, recording yet another winless pre season. Then QB Cassell (ribs) ends up being questionable for this opening contest. But it is the opinion of this bureau that he will make post. Last year Kansas City won this match up 13-10 as (-7). Though Kansas City is just 11-20 ATS on this field of late and the Bills have covered 9 of 13 recent road contests. I'm opting for the blow out based on the anticipated success the Chiefs will have at the point of attack. In that 13-10 victory LY Kansas City outrushed the Bills 274-137 yet didn't get the cover. That was representative of how things went for the season with Kansas City leading the league in rushing at 161 YPG and Buffalo being last in rush defense at 170 RYPG. Remember teams who out rush their opponent by 30+ yards are now 1,394-439 ATS (76%) that last 11 years.
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5
This could be quite dichotomous to the aerial show you witnessed Thursday night between the Saints and the Packers. These two have a hard fought divisional rivalry which is old school smash mouth football. As a result it comes as no surprise that 5 of the last 7 games in this series have been decided by 3 or less points. Those games have been decided by a total of only 25 points. That series history shows a 6-1 ATS record by the underdog. And a 5-1 ATS recent series record by the Pittsburgh Steelers who have posted a record of 9-4 ATS recently as underdog. The Steelers won 2 of 3 meetings last year, including the play off game. Some may opt for Baltimore play off revenge in their home opener but the fundamentals speak otherwise. DC Lebeau still has the speedier defense in this match up with a particular edge of his line backing corps against Baltimore OL, which is going through an early season shake up. Look for Steelers Blitzes to cause a major headache for Baltimore QB Flacco. Expect more continuity from the Pittsburgh Steelers who return virtually intact from their AFC Championship season.
Indianapolis Colts +9
We know RB Foster (hamstring) may miss this contest for Houston. He was an integral part of a rare Houston series win on this field last year, 34-24, when he rushed for 231 yards. This big question here is whether the Colts will send QB Manning to post in his 208th consecutive start. Or will they rely on aging veteran QB Collins to lead them in the opener. Either way the Colt prospects for continued series dominance do not look promising. Yet with this line being inflated over a touchdown for the opener it's hard not to look at the value side with the Colts who figure to play with more intensity and emotion regardless of who the starter is at the signal caller spot.
St Louis Rams +4
Hard to believe we are fading this Dream Team offense led by $100 million dollar QB Vick on opening week. Consider this a reminder that NFL victories are more a result of work in the trenches than at the skill positions. As such that would favor the emerging Rams who made it all the way to 7-9 SU 10-6 ATS in 2010. In this match up they clearly have the superior edge in key units such as the OL and LB corps. Only the fancy footwork of QB Vick will help him avoid the anticipated edge that the St. Louis DL will have over Phillies retooled OL. The marriage of new St. Louis OC McDaniels with QB Bradford looks to be paying immediate dividends. At this point in time St. Louis may actually be the better football team.
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5
Never easy to back a rookie QB (Dalton) in his first road start. But he does have the advantage of playing all four years at TCU where he led the Frogs to a 36-3 SU record in the L3Y. He will be working with an offense featuring a veteran OL and a highly rated group of WRs. As such they have the clear advantage against Cleveland QB McCoy who in his second year is adjusting to the new systems of first year HC Shurmur. Must grab more than a TD in a competitive series which has seen the underdog go 7-1 ATS of late, with the two games last year decided by 2 and 3 points. Those were contests in which the Bengals outgained the Browns by a combined 237 yards. Veteran HC Lewis is now 13-6 ATS as dog which fits against a Cleveland team who is just 2-6 ATS as HF.
Arizona Cardinals -7
The simplistic concept here is to fade New Carolina HC Rivera with Rookie QB Newton in their first road game. After all, this was a team that went 2-14 and 4-12 ATS LY, being outscored 25-12 and outgained 336-258. They will try to slow the game and control it over land with RB Williams and RB Stewart. Their weak point of defense is an unproven DL. Never easy to conceptually back an Arizona team who allowed 27 PPG and 374 YPG LY. They lost the overland battle by an average of 145-87, a main reason why they were 5-11 SU ATS. But newly acquired QB Kobb has played nice with quality receivers Fitzgerald and Heap in the early going inspiring offensive confidence. None the less tough to trust a "passing favorite" in the NFL.
New York Jets -5.5
The Cowboys have plenty to prove after their 6-10 SU ATS failure of 2010 in which QB Romo was sidelined for much of the year.The defense allowed 27 PPG and 352 YPG. That side of the ball looks like no contest against the Jets defense that allowed just 19 PPG and 296 YPG. Yet it will be an interesting chess match between Jets HC Rex Ryan and Brother Rob Ryan the new DC for Dallas. But more experienced Jets defense will severely test the quick release of Cowboy QB Romo as he is protected by a less experienced OL. The Cowboys will have to hit some big offensive plays and win the turnover battle if they hope to remain competitive in this contest.
Jack Jones
San Francisco 49ers -5
The San Francisco 49ers come into this game very healthy and with a fresh outlook thanks to the hiring of head coach Jim Harbaugh. This guy just screams enthusiasm and will get the most out of his players, something that has not been happening for quite some time in San Francisco. This is clearly the most talented team in the NFC West heading into 2011.
The Seattle Seahawks won the NFC West last year, but they are the long shot to win the division in 2011 and for good reason. They now have Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, still have the same defensive issues that plagued them last year, and are facing several injury concerns. Top WR Sidney Rice is expected to miss this game with a shoulder injury, while OG Robert Gallery is also doubtful with a knee injury. These are two of their best players on offense, and both will be missed Sunday.
The home team has won four straight in this series, going a perfect 4-0 against the spread in the process. Both home teams won in blowouts last year as the Seahawks won 31-6, while the 49ers were victorious 40-21.
The Seahawks are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 road games overall, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. I believe the 49ers make a statement in their first game of the season with a blowout victory against the over-matched Seahawks. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
Gregg Price
Bengals vs. Browns
Play: Under 35½
We are going to go under here. 5 of the last 7 between these 2 have gone under, 9 of 13 with Clev as a fav, and 8 of 10 for Cinci vs the AFC North. I also don't see Dalton leading Cinci on many scoring drives. Lets play the Under.
James Patrick Sports
Lions vs. Buccaneers
In NFC action this Sunday of the NFL's opening week Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection is on Tampa Bay Buccaneers as we have a solid system on our side here as we Play Against any NFL Game One favorite or dog of less than six points if they were (4-0) or greater in the preseason and are facing an opponent seeking revenge.This system has produced solid results, Since 1983 (15-4-1) ATS.
Rob Vinciletti
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags fit a nice opening week system that plays on game one division home favorites of 6 or less points that won 8 or more games last season but no more than 18 the last 2 seasons. These homers are 19-6 ats long term. Many will jump off the Jaguars due to the departure of starting Qb D. Garrard . However as we have seen plenty of times before in the NFL You cant underestimate the replacement. L. Mcgown should do a credible job here against a Titans team that is 4-11 straight up as an underdog and 4-8 in their last 12 division games. The Jaguars are 8-2 straight up when the total is 35.5 to 42 and have won 6 of their last 9 when favored. Look for the Jaguars to win their home opener.
Bob Balfe
Chargers -8.5 over Vikings
I think most people are shocked at this line considering the Chargers didn’t even make the playoffs last year and they struggle in the month of September. The Chargers actually ranked number one in offense and defense last year, but were doomed because of special teams play. You have to figure will have that fixed after a long off-season. This is going to be a classic game of the Chargers being bullies on offense. Both Minnesota cornerbacks are listed at 5’9. The Chargers receivers are huge and so is the offensive line. Minnesota is known for their tough defensive line play, but outside of Jared Allen they really are not that good anymore. The Vikings have a new QB in McNabb a new coordinator and they lost Sidney Rice who was their best receiver. Its going to take time for the passing game to gel if they do at all. Adrian Peterson is the man, but he just got a new deal with a ton of money and you cant help to think he was celebrating all night and might not have his head in the game. This line is set this high for a reason. The Chargers have on of the best teams in all of football and need a big convincing win to start the season right. Take the Chargers.
Jim Feist
Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Carolina has new coach Ron Rivera (former Chargers defensive coordinator) and new DC Sean McDermott, who previously headed up an attacking Philadelphia Eagles defense. They are going with rookie QB Cam Newton. Newton played just one series in Week 4 against the Steelers but it was his best of the preseason. He led the Panthers on a 71-yard touchdown drive that included a sparkling scramble and a 10-yard touchdown pass to tight end Jeremy Shockey. That will be the norm as the emphasis is on the tight ends in the passing game installed by new offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski (who also came from San Diego). Arizona has a new look on offense too with QB Kevin Kolb, learning the new playbook with offensive coordinator Mike Miller. Throw in WR Larry Fitzgerald and new TE Todd Heap and the Cardinals have two proven threats in the red zone. The only question is whether Kolb is the person who can step in and guide this team. The cost to acquire Kolb was their best defensive back (Rodgers-Cromartie) and the secondary had injuries in preseason, so that is a weak spot. The lack of a consistent pass rush was a big factor in the team’s 5-11 record last season, so it was a point of emphasis this off-season. I'm thinking this is too many points for a Arizona team that still has to answer many questions from last year's terrible squad. The Panthers won't do a lot this year, but they could jump up and bite some favorites as big dogs.
Scott Spreitzer
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Montreal Alouettes Sep
Prediction: Montreal Alouettes
Last week's loss in Hamilton was so bad that a name for it has already been coined. Alouette fans are already calling last week's horrible loss, "The Meltdown in Steeltown." You can bet this hasn't escaped the league's top franchise. Montreal finds themselves in unchartered waters. Nine games into the season, they're usually out in front and on cruise control. This season, they're third in the East with a 5-4 SU record. QB Anthony Calvillo was under constant pressure last week with Hamilton bringing constant heat, including the kitchen sink. Calvillo finished without a score. This week, look for the Als to get RB Brandon Whitaker involved early, opening things up for the passing game. Defensively, DT Eric Wilson is healthy and will be back on the field for the Als. He'll help plug the Ti-Cat running game, including former Als RB Avon Colbourne. Slow the ground game and the onus of the offense will be on the shoulders of Kevin Glenn, who I suspect will be under constant heat this week. It's a crucial game for Montreal and they are 16-5 ATS off a SU loss. I'm laying it with Montreal on Sunday.
John Ryan
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
5* graded play on the Jacksonville Jaguars as they host the Tennessee Titans set to start at 1:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Jacksonville will win this game by four or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-10 ATS for 77% winners since 1983. Play on favorites in the first week of the season and after closing out last season with three or more straight ATS losses. Jacksonville finished weakly losing three straight games both straight up and against the spread. The second to last game was arguably the worst loss of the season losing at home to Washington 20-17 installed as seven point favorites. Here is a remarkable system that support Jacksonville producing a 21-4 record for 84% winners and has made 18.2 units per one unit wagered since 1983. This is a rarely played system simply because it?s focus is on the first two weeks of the season only. It has gone a perfect 30 making 3.0 units per one unit wagered over the past three seasons. Play on home teams using the money line in the first two weeks of the season after closing out last season with three or more straight ATS losses and facing an opponent that closed out last season with two or more straight losses. The simulator shows high probabilities that Jacksonville will gain more than 150 rushing yards, more than 400 total offensive yards, and score between 22 and 28 points in this game. In past games where these levels have been achieved either individually or in some combination the results have clearly supported Jacksonville and worked against Tennessee. Note that 9-26 ATS losing 19.6 units per one unit wagered when they allow 150 or more rushing yards since 1992; 13-28 ATS losing 17.8 units when they allow 400 or more total yards since 1992. Moreover, Jacksonville is a solid 52-21 ATS making 28.9 units per one unit wagered when they rush for 125 or more yards since 1992; 52-20 ATS making 30.0 units per one unit wagered when they score 22 to 28 points since 1992; 33-17 ATS making 14.3 units per one unit wagered when they gain 400 or more total yards since 1992. Betting flows have been early even on this game with about 55% of all wagers backing the underdog Titans and 45% of all wagers backing the Jaguars. Only a slight support for the Jaguars based on these consensus figures. In 2010 the Jaguars ranked third in the NFL gaining 149.7 rushing yards per game. Maurice Jones-Drew is the key to the running game. he had a slow start to the beginning of last season gaining more than 100 rushing yards in just one of the first seven games. However, he then had six straight 100 yards games. he will get the bulk of the carries in this game as his reserve Rashad Jennings has been placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. Deji Kim is the second strong tailback and the only tailback available should Jones-Drew need rest. I do not see the Titans defensive front containing the Jones-Drew running show. If they are forced to bring safety help quarterback Gerrard will shred them with slants and ?in? routes over the middle of the field. Take the Jaguars for a 5* play.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -115
Off 5 straight defeats, including 3 in a row at home to the Phillies, the Brewers will leave it all on the diamond this afternoon in hopes of ending their skid. One thing you HAVE NOT wanted to do this season is go against the Brew Crew at Miller Park on Sunday. That's because Milwaukee is a perfect 11-0 this season in Sunday home games, winning them by an average of 2.2 runs. And if you're an NL club with an on-base percentage below .325, you don't want any part of Gallardo. The Brewers are 10-0 this season in his home starts when matched up against an NL team with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse. They're winning these games by an average of 3.6 runs. Gallardo is 9-2 (11-3 on the ML) with a 3.18 ERA at home this season. We'll take the home team.