SEAN MURPHY
Colts @ Texans
PICK: Under 44
This total took a major nosedive once Peyton Manning was ruled out, and rightfully so.
In two meetings between these AFC South foes last year, we saw 58 and 47 points scored. It's worth noting that Manning threw for over 700 yards and five touchdowns in those two contests.
I don't need to tell you that Kerry Collins represents a major drop-off in talent at quarterback for the Colts. But all I've been hearing is how Collins is a steady veteran that can handle this situation, and keep the Colts heads above water in Manning's absence.
I'm not so easily convinced.
Keep in mind, Collins has thrived in Tennessee over the last several years, thanks in large part to having a gamebreaker in the backfield in Chris Johnson. Over his five years with the Titans, Collins actually threw only 33 touchdowns compared to 29 interceptions. In only one of those five seasons did he complete better than 60% of his passes.
Collins won't have the benefit of an elite level back to lean on with the Colts. Sure, there are some quality pieces in place at wide receiver and tight end, but it's obviously going to take some time for Collins to get in sync with his targets.
With all of that being said, the Colts do still possess plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and that's where they'll have to focus their efforts in order to stay in this game on Sunday. They have held the Texans to 27 points or less in nine of 10 meetings since the start of the 2006 season.
The Texans have their own key injury to deal with, as RB Arian Foster remains doubtful for Sunday's game due to a hamstring injury. His backup, Derrick Ward, is also sidelined due to a concussion.
Even with Foster out, the Texans are still capable of marching up and down the field, but perhaps not quite as quickly. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson will likely have another monster day, but once the Texans are able to build a lead (and I think it's only a matter of time before they do), they won't need to stay in overdrive for four quarters.
Houston still has a strong stable of running backs to work with - it's simply lacking the constant home run threat with Foster.
Defensively, I'm confident we'll see the Texans shine in this game. I'm not a fan of Wade Phillips as a head coach, but as a defensive coordinator, he's in his comfort zone. We already saw the Texans defense excel through the first three games (the ones where they actually cared) in the preseason.
They boast a nice mix of youth and experience on the defensive side of the ball, and have essentially been built to slow down Manning and the Colts. It's simply an added bonus that they'll be matched up against Collins this time around.
The 'over' is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in this series, but we certainly have a catalyst for change in place with Manning absent for the first time over that stretch.
BIG AL
LA Dodgers @ Giants
PICK: Giants
It would appear that the Giants are not going to repeat as World Series Champions, given that they are now seven games behind the Diamondbacks with three weeks to go in the season. Nonetheless, this team must really be looking forward to the 2012 season, as they will have their best hitter, catch Buster Posey, back in the lineup. Posey had his leg broken in a home-plate collision in May, but his return is not the only reason this team should be optimistic heading into next season. Lefthanded starter Madison Bumgarner has been pitching like a veteran ace lately even though the third-year pitcher is still only 22 years old. If only Bumgarner could start every game for the Giants, then they might be leading the division as San Fran has won 10 of Bumgarners last 14 starts and he's allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of those outings. When was the last time a league's loss leader also had an ERA under there runs? That could actually happen with the Dodgers' 36-year-old righthander Hiroki Kuroda who is leading the N.L. in losses with an 11-15 record but still has an ERA of 3.18 in his 28 starts. The Dodgers are 3-6 in the last nine meetings. Take the Giants.
Dennis Macklin
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Play: Under 38
Both teams were absolutely brutal on offense during the preseason. Aaron Smith has led a charmed life getting paid despite his poor play and it won’t be long before he’s replaced by Colin Kaepernick. The Taveris jackson guided Seahawk offense was good for just two TDs in four preseason games and faces a tough task against a staunch 49ers front seven. The final game in this divisional series ended 40-21 thanks to six Seahawk turnovers. The prior three games (37-37-33) al went under the total and featured just 505, 548, and 662 yards of total offense. Points figure to be very tough to come by here. Play the Under.
Black Widow
1* on Kansas City Chiefs -4.5
The Chiefs have gone from a 7-point favorite to open down to a 4.5-point favorite, providing us with some excellent line value here. Apparently, nobody is buying into the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC West last season with a 10-6 record. This is a young team that is only going to be better this year under Todd Haley. The Buffalo Bills seem to be stuck in reverse, and just can't quite get the personnel they need to return to relevant. A lot of this line movement has to do with QB Matt Cassel injuring his ribs in the final preseason game, but he's probable and is expected to be at full strength Sunday. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series and we fully expect the Chiefs to roll by at least a touchdown in Arrowhead Stadium Sunday. Take Kansas City and lay the points.
Triple Threat Sports
Tennessee (+) over Jacksonville
This one comes down to one key stat for us, and that is Matt Hasslebeck's 69 career wins as an NFL starter against the 1-6 SU record as a starter for Luke McCown, who gets the call in Jacksonville. Add in that the Jags are on a 4-11 ATS run as home chalk, and we will take the Texans here.
EZWINNERS
Houston Texans -9
The Texans have looked very good in the pre-season. The offense has picked up right where they left off last season as quarterback Matt Schaub has been sharp and receiver Andre Johnson looks like he is in mid season form. The running game with Arian Foster who led the league in rushing last season has been great and Ben Tate who missed all of last season with an injury has also ran the ball very well. The question mark for Houston is their defense which was worst in the league last season. Wade Phillips looks to have improved this unit as they have played well in the pre-season. The Texans sport a revamped secondary and should be much improved over last season. The Colts have not looked good in the pre-season. Indy is always a money burner in the pre-season, but this year is different. Peyton Manning is coming off of neck surgery and didn't play and will not play in this game. Manning's backup Aaron Painter has not been able to do much with the football and the newly signed Kerry Collins has looked bad as well. The Colts defense has also not looked that good and I don't give them much of a chance of slowing down this Houston offense. This is supposed to be the year for the Texans and beating the depleted Colts will send the message that there is a new sheriff in town in this division. Lay the points.
Don Wallace Sports
INDIANAPOLIS AT HOUSTON
Take: HOUSTON
Indianapolis has dominated the all-time series with Houston, having emerged victorious in 16 of the 18 games played between the divisional foes since the Texas entered the NFL as an expansion franchise in 2002. In addition to its previously noted win in last year's season-opener, Houston defeated the Colts by a 27-24 count at Reliant Stadium in 2006. Kubiak is 2-8 against the Colts in his career during his tenure as the Texans' head coach, while Indianapolis' Jim Caldwell is 3-1 against both Kubiak and Houston as a head man. The Colts appear to be heading into unfamiliar territory without Manning and that is bad news against a Texans club that is ready to show the NFL it is a playoff-ready team. Houston's biggest disadvantage was its secondary and it was still able to win a shootout at home over Indianapolis a season ago. The Colts have long been a thorn in the Texans' side, but no Manning will leave them on their heels a bit in this one. HOUSTON 38 INDIANAPOLIS 17
Matt Fargo
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1
Detroit is once again the "it" team as the Lions are being praised as the next big thing. To their credit, they very well could be but we have not seen it yet and the lines should not be reflecting it. Detroit finished last season with four straight wins to end the season, all by a touchdown or less, and then went 4-0 this preseason. A thumping of the Patriots on national television in Week Three certainly caught the attention of the public and we have seen this line drop four points since opening. Because the Lions are the talk of the town, many seem to be forgetting that the Tampa Bay Buccaneer had a very solid season a year ago. They were one of just 13 teams that won at least 10 games and they were one of two teams, along with the New York Giants, that failed to make the playoffs despite double-digit wins. The Buccaneers play in a tough division with the Saints and Falcons so they are not getting the same praise as the others. This team will once again be good and this line is not reflecting that. According to Jay Kornegay who is the vice president of race and sports operations at the Las Vegas Hilton, the public is all over the Lions as far as going over their win total. "It's almost 4-to-1 in ratio as far as more people betting the over than the under", he said. "I can't say we're going to be Lions fans this year." He also noted that they are ranked sixth in Super Bowl betting popularity and they have gone from 25-1 to 12-1 to win the NFC championship. This without playing a meaningful game. The Buccaneers missed the playoffs by just a game last season and they can thank the Lions for that. They won three of their final four games and the one loss in that stretch came against Detroit at home in overtime. "We definitely had a bad taste in our mouths after that game," said defensive tackle Roy Miller. "It just carried over to this year. But in the back of our mind, we remember the game so it will be something to remember when we walk on field." The fact that the Lions had dropped an NFL-record 26 consecutive road games before rallying behind third-string quarterback Drew Stanton to win 23-20 in overtime made the loss even more difficult to swallow. Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as an underdog of three points or less while the Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their five games as a favorite of the same parameters. Tampa Bay was favored by 3.5 points in that meeting last season and not enough has changed to make this line this much shorter. 3* Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dave Price
1 Unit on Atlanta Braves -118
Following losses in the first 2 games of this series, expect the Braves to bounce back strong today. They are 8-1 in their last 9 games after losing the first 2 games of a series, and they are also 6-2 in Hudson's last 8 starts. The Cardinals are just 2-5 in Westbrook's last 7 home starts. We'll bet the Braves at an affordable price in this bounce back spot.
Eric Williams
Vikings vs. Chargers
Play: Over 41½
I’m going to urge NFL gamblers to use one of my preferred methods on this pick … the K.I.S.S. method (Keep it Simple Stupid), which takes all guesswork out of the equation.
The San Diego Chargers are perennial one of the most talented teams in all of football, but they also keep underachieving at the worst possible moment.
Still, they are loaded once again and are being touted as a possible Super Bowl representative for the AFC this season under strong-armed quarterback Philip Rivers.
San Diego is coming off a mediocre 9-7 season in 2010 that left them on the outside looking in when last year’s playoffs rolled around. The Bolts did manage to record respectable identical 8-7-1 ATS and O/U marks a year ago with their high-powered offense, so clearly, there is hope for this team heading into the 2011 regular season.
The Minnesota Vikings have a new leader in of six-time pro bowl quarterback Donovan McNabb as they look to bounce back from their disappointing 6-10 season from a year ago under new head coach Leslie Frazier.
D-Mac and the Vikes looked mostly respectable in going 2-2 in the preseason while San Diego and their top-ranked offense a year ago also looked solid in posting an identical 2-2 SU mark in the preseason.
To get right to the point, I’m going to advise NFL gamblers to play the Over in this contest!
San Diego averaged 22.0 points per game this preseason and hung 34 points on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 while also allowing at least 20 points in three of their four preseason contests, including a combined 55 points against Seattle and Arizona.
The Vikings will most likely be a very strong defensive team under Frazier, one of the best defensive minds in the league, but not in this contest as I suspect they’ll be better later on rather than early.
I like the Chargers to get the SU win in this contest with both Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates back on the field after missing much of the 2010 season. Still, I think the Bolts may narrowly fail to get the ATS win as a home favorite that looks a bit too high.
The Vikes have some explosive players of their own in gifted running back Adrian Peterson and wide receiver Percy Harvin and I believe they’ll reach the 20-point plateau in this regular season opener.
The Over is 11-2 in San Diego’s last 13 games in the month of September and I expect it to play out again in this contest, even though the majority of the key O/U trends surrounding this matchup are pointing toward an categorical Under outcome.
The Over has played out in four consecutive meetings between these teams dating back to 1993 and I believe it will do so again with both teams’ defenses not being able to consistently stop their offensive opponents at this early juncture in the regular season
Jack Jones
San Francisco 49ers -5
The San Francisco 49ers come into this game very healthy and with a fresh outlook thanks to the hiring of head coach Jim Harbaugh. This guy just screams enthusiasm and will get the most out of his players, something that has not been happening for quite some time in San Francisco. This is clearly the most talented team in the NFC West heading into 2011.
The Seattle Seahawks won the NFC West last year, but they are the long shot to win the division in 2011 and for good reason. They now have Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, still have the same defensive issues that plagued them last year, and are facing several injury concerns. Top WR Sidney Rice is expected to miss this game with a shoulder injury, while OG Robert Gallery is also doubtful with a knee injury. These are two of their best players on offense, and both will be missed Sunday.
The home team has won four straight in this series, going a perfect 4-0 against the spread in the process. Both home teams won in blowouts last year as the Seahawks won 31-6, while the 49ers were victorious 40-21.
The Seahawks are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 road games overall, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. I believe the 49ers make a statement in their first game of the season with a blowout victory against the over-matched Seahawks. Bet the 49ers Sunday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on S.F. Giants -124
The Dodgers have struggled against southpaw starters in 2011, hitting just .256 and scoring only 3.6 runs/game off of them. I expect their struggles with lefties to continue with Bumgarner stepping to the hill for the Giants. The kid has been on fire, and the Giants have won each of his last 3 starts and 10 of his last 14 as a result. The Giants are also 7-1 in his last 8 home starts and 7-0 in his last 7 starts as a home favorite. We'll take San Fran.
Scott Rickenbach
Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers
PICK: San Diego Chargers -9
The Chargers, based on yardage stats, were at the top of the charts in the NFL last season. In terms of yardage gained on offense and the stellar work that the defense did in yards allowed, San Diego was at the top. And yet, by way of bad beats and meltdowns, the Chargers still managed to have a disappointing 9-7 season. As a result, San Diego is a very hungry team heading into the 2011 season and is worth a look here even though they are laying big points against Minnesota. Note that the Vikings had many question marks in the off-season and the QB position remains a concern. Also, the Vikes lost a number of key players from last season. Looks like, particularly early in the season, the Vikings are absolutely in rebuilding mode. The Chargers are hungry to make a statement in this one and they've found the perfect spot to do just that. QB Phillip Rivers gives San Diego a huge edge over Minnesota as the Vikings will struggle at the QB position early this season. That should lead to a blowout in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
MONTREAL –5 over Hamilton
So, a bunch of geniuses got together and thought it would be a good idea to go head-to-head with the NFL? Here’s a league that’s been playing on Thursday, Friday and Saturday for nine weeks and as soon as the NFL rolls around for week 1, the CFL schedules games for 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM. If anyone has a good explanation for that we’d be interested to hear it. Hell, even President Obama couldn’t compete with the NFL on Thursday and he knew it. One thing is 1000% certain and that is that the CFL can only lose viewers or fans attending on this day so why would they do that? It’s absolutely ridiculous. Does anyone even care about this game with 13 NFL games going? The Al’s have dropped three in a row and you know for sure that’s not sitting well with them. Defensively, Montreal is a mess but expect complete focus and in a short week with serious revenge on its minds, the Als are probably a decent wager but we’re still going to pass on the game. Play: Montreal –5 (No bets).
Saskatchewan +5½ over WINNIPEG
The Bombers have been overachieving for most of the year while the Riders have been underachieving. It’s also worth noting that the Riders are getting healthier week by week and get a couple more key bodies back for this game including receiver Andy Fantuz. He’s a difference maker. Saskatchewan has played five rock-solid quarters in a row now and that momentum may not have run out. The Roughies could have a big second half because this team is not much different from the one that went to the Grey Cup a year ago. Winnipeg is running on all cylinders like they were when everything was going perfect for them. Buck Pierce has looked average for a couple of games now and as a result the offense is stuck in neutral. The defense hasn’t looked as dominating either and the kicking game is completely dreadful. Swaggerville is usually a pretty tough venue and the Bombers may get back on track but this is a Winnipeg club you probably don’t want to be laying points with, as they’ve already peaked while the Riders are just starting to peak. Play: Saskatchewan +5½ +100 (Risking 2 units).
Real Animal
Pittsburgh +1
In his rookie season Joe Flacco won two playoff games. Yet I feel like Flacco has actually degressed the past two years when it comes to winning the "big" game. The Ravens are 0-2 in the 2nd round of the playoffs the last two years, 0-2 versus New England in the regular season, and have now lost FIVE STRAIGHT to Pittsburgh w/ Ben Roethlisberger in the lineup. That is essentially the difference. Sure both of these defenses are starting to show age along with wear and tear. But the Steelers were #1 in the league in defending the run last year by a large margin and I'm just not sure Flacco will beat Pittsburgh without Ray Rice having a great game on the ground. The Steelers allowed 62.8 yards a game rushing. In 2nd was Chicago at 90.1. That is COMPLETE DOMINATION and it came with a few Steeler injuries. The Ravens had only 126 total yards of offense in last year's playoff game against the Steelers. Again you have to ask, how does Baltimore move the chains if they can't run? Flacco usually craps his pants when facing a top-rated defense. Yeah some will point to playoff revenge and some system about Super Bowl losers in their opening game. But if I know the Steelers, they are the exception to almost any system. I sense this team is really driven and hungry and I usually nail this team throughout the years with spread accuracy. Last year Ray Rice had rushing games of 20, 32, and 32 yards. "Big Ben" looked awesome in the preseason and I think he's in for a huge year. Flacco looked miserable as did the Ravens #1 offense. Pitt is 7-2 ATS as a road underdog recently. They have more total speed than the Ravens on both sides of the ball. Lee Evans is a decent pick-up for the Ravens but I don't view him as a difference-maker against the Steelers. Historically these games are usually close but Ben always seems to beat this team. Plus many a jarhead/spin-master on ESPN has picked Baltimore this week. That alone is enough for me to play Pittsburgh.