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Broncos vs. Jaguars
Play: Under 40½
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The Broncos' HC McDaniels is looking to improve on last seasons poor rushing performance. He's going looking to do this by having a bigger offensive line versus the lighter zone blocking of last season. However, it's going to be a stuggle today as his three "big guys" are all nursing injuries. Instead he'll have three offensive linemen who will be playing their first NFL Games. That will spell trouble for the running game and will force QB Kyle Orton to pass more. The problem with that is Orton is missing last years big two receivers of Marshall and Scheffler.
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The Broncos also come into this game with a bigger on the defensive line as well which should cause problems against a Jaguars team that is hoping to pound the ball with RB Maurice Jones-Drew. They also have a secondary full of veteran players with Champ Baily, Brian dawkins, and Andre Goodman.
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Don't look for much offense on either side of the ball so the total will be hard to eclipse. Take the Under
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Green Bay Packers -3
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This is the start of a new era in Philly as Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook gone making room for Kevin Kolb and LeSean McCoy. There is no division that is stronger or more balanced than the NFC East. The Eagles are young while the rest of the division is not. That could mean trouble. The jury is out on how well they will do, but this is an incredibly difficult opening game for the Eagles as they face one of the top teams in the entire NFL. Green Bay had the sixth ranked offense and second ranked defense last season and they should be even better this season. Green Bay is a legitimate Super Bowl contender and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is a legitimate MVP candidate. The Pack has been very good on the road under head coach Mike McCarthy, posting a 22-10 record against the spread and I like them to open the season with the road win and cover. I'm not sold on Kevin Kolb just yet and Aaron Rodgers ran fourteen series with the Green Bay starters in the preseason and they only punted three times. Lay the points.
Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1 Unit on Carolina Panthers +6.5
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The Carolina Panthers crushed the Giants 41-9 at the end of last season, and while New York will be out for revenge, Carolina should definitely be able to keep this one within the number. You have to like Carolina catching better than 2 field goals here, as it has one of the best running games in the NFL, an attack that is capable of keeping New York's offense off the field for big stretches. Look for Williams and Stewart to combine for a big day on the ground. The Panthers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NFC, while the Giants are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. the NFC. Take the Panthers and the points.
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WAS (-135) vs FLA
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The reason we're not making this one a bigger play (and why not start with the bad news) is that Washington is in a bit of a hitting slump coming off a monster hot streak. They've scored less than a handful of runs in the last 3 games, so they're a tough team to back.
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Chris Volstad is a FADE against Washington. His record against them this year looks FAR better than it should, and he's gotten steadily more hittable against the Nats all season. Then, of course, came the high-scoring insanity in Florida. The Marlins got way out ahead, Volstad threw behind Nyjer Morgan, and then nearly got his block knocked off by Morgan. Thanks to a vicious clothesline move by Gaby Sanchez, Volstad was saved, but there's definitely some bad blood here, and I think he's going to be tentative coming inside.
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The Nats can hang out over the dish and wail on Volstad.
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They're also fighting to avoid getting blasted all weekend, and the high opening number is another indicator that that oddsmakers took some very early money on the Nats.
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Great spot, bit of an odd price. I like it.
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Play on Washington!
Doug Williams
Carolina Panthers vs. NY Giants
Oddsmakers currently have the Giants listed as -6 point favorites versus the Panthers, while the game's total is sitting at 40.
The Panthers are too young and inexperienced coming up against the Giants who are are going to be as strong as ever offensively. Eli Manning will tear Carolina to shreds.
Pick: NY Giants to Cover the -6
San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
A late one for Monday Night Football. Divisional bragging rights are on the line here.
Oddsmakers currently have the Chargers listed as -4.5 point favorites versus the Chiefs, while the game's total is sitting at 45.
I think the Chargers will easily roll over Kansas and cover the points.
Pick: San Diego to Cover the 4.5
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots
Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as -4.5 point favorites versus the Bengals, while the game's total is sitting at 44.5.
The Bengals have gone 1-6 SU in its last seven games against the New England Patriots, including 1-4 SU in its last five road games.
Pick: New England Covers the -4.5 (easily)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Oddsmakers currently have the Dolphins listed as -3 point favorites versus the Bills, while the game's total is sitting at 39.
Miami has gone 3-9 ATS and 4-8 SU in its last 12 games against Buffalo, including a 1-5 ATS mark in the last six games.
I'm going with Miami to Cover here.
Pick: Miami to Cover the -3
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Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers
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The Baltimore Orioles have continued to play goof baseball under Buck Showalter, as they have won six of their last seven games including going 4-1 on their current rod trip, taking two of three in the Bronx from the Mighty Yankees and the first two games of this series vs. the Detroit Tigers.
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The Orioles offer tremendous value today, as the bookmakers have installed them as +207 underdogs on the betting line.
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In fact, the O’s could easily be on a seven-game winning streak and perfect on this trip so far, as their only loss in New York came on a ninth-inning walk-off two-run homer by Nick Swisher that overcame a 2-1 Baltimore lead. The Orioles may have the worst record in the American League, but they are an excellent 23-14 under Showalter.
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Baltimoreremains very high on young Chris Tillman despite his struggles at the Major League level earlier thus season. That said, his demotion to the minors probably did him some good, as he pitched noticeably better in his only start since his recall. That start came last Sunday, when he limited the Tampa Bay Rays to three runs and six hits in 5.1 innings. He should improve further here vs. Tigers team that now appears to just be going through the motions.
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Granted, Justin Verlander is the ace of the Detroit staff at 15-8 with a 3.53 ERA, and he has 179 strikeouts against 67 walks in 191.1 innings. However, these “new” Orioles were not impressed when he faced them last month, reaching Verlander for five earned runs and nine hits in eight innings, albeit in a 6-5 Tiger victory.
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Look for the Orioles to reverse that result this time around however at a nice square price.
Play: Orioles +207
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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
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The 49ers have been an excellent pointspread proposition under HC Mike Singletary, cashing 70% of the time during his tenure. In Week 1 of the NFL Season (since 2000), division favorites of three or less are 15-3 SU and 14-3-1 ATS. San Francisco is expected to win the NFC West this year coming off a season where they were 8-8 with six of those defeats coming by a TD or less. They opened last year with an outright win over another division rival, Arizona. Too much turnover in Seattle under Pete Carroll for them to be effective this early in the season.
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Play on: San Francisco
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
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Marcum goes for the Jays and he's been outstanding lately. He's gone at least six innings in five straight outings and in seven of his last eight starts. He's got a 2.37 ERA his last three. For the season, he's got 3.12 ERA and 1.231 WHIP at home for the season.
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Marcum also has a very solid 3.15 ERA and 1.075 WHIP vs the Rays and is 6-3 with a 3.33 ERA when pitching during the day.
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Niemann is also a very capable pitcher. However, he's been struggling lately, to say the least. In fact, he's 0-3 with a 20.70 ERA and 2.70 WHIP his last three starts. While I expect him to bounce back with a better effort here, I don't feel that he'll probably be able to match Marcum. Consider Toronto
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Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
PICK: New York Giants -5.5
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At one point this line even got as high as -8 +105 for the Giants. Now the line has dropped to as low as a -5.5 as of Sunday morning. We love the line value we’re getting here with the far superior team at home. Keep in mind, the Giants have payback on their mind here after getting crushed 41-9 in their final home game at Giants Stadium last year. They’ve now got a new defensive coordinator plus a standout safety (Rolle) added to bolster the defense. Offensively, the Giants can take advantage of a Panthers defense with a lot of new personnel in the starting lineup.
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On the other side of the ball, the Carolina offense doesn’t have much help in the aerial attack for WR Smith. That means the Giants defense can focus on Smith and the Panthers offense was anemic, to say the least, in the NFL Preseason. Granted, RB Williams and Stewart will now be the factors they weren’t in the preseason but the Panthers offense will find that the Giants defense can focus on stopping the ground game since the Carolina aerial attack just doesn’t have the balance it needs! Look for a huge game from Eli Manning and New York here as they use their weapons in the aerial attack to take advantage of a very young Carolina defense. Consider a small play on the New York Giants minus the points on Sunday afternoon!
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3* on Jacksonville Jaguars -3
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Reasons the Jags cover:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses. This is a 53-22 ATS System hitting 70.7% since 1983. Bet the Jaguars at home.
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1* on Oakland Raiders +6
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We'll take the points on the Raiders Sunday in what should be a close battle in Tennessee. The Raiders have played the Titans very tough through the years. Oakland is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Tennessee. Oakland closes last year going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC foes. Meanwhile, the Titans are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC opponents. Plus, the Titans are 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. They are simply laying too many points here after starting last season 0-6. Take Oakland and the points.
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1 Unit on Jacksonville Jaguars -3
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The Jaguars fit into a very profitable system of mine. Plays on favorites (JACKSONVILLE) in the first 2 weeks of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses, are 53-22 ATS since 1983, including 21-8 ATS the last 10 years. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by 9.5 points on average. With the losses of Brandon Marshall and Elvis Dumervil, expect the Broncos to struggle early on. Lay the points.
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Lions +6 FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There has been no team as feeble in the league the past few years than Detroit who has won a grand total of just 2 games straight-up. Even worse the Lions have lost 20 consecutive games on the road in a streak that dates all the way back to the 2007 campaign. However there is what I like to call an “intangible” to consider as the last time Detroit actually won a game on the highway was AT CHICAGO which is where they open a brand new campaign today against an opponent who went “winless” during the preseason. During the exhibition games Chicago ranked near the bottom of the league in yards per game and points, scoring on just 3 of 16 possessions with Jay Cutler at the helm. In addition to going winless in the preseason, Chicago gave up a league worst 19 sacks which makes one wonder why they are laying so many points this afternoon. Of course the Bears did make upgrades by bringing in veteran offensive coordinator Mike Martz along with former Vikings star rusher Chester Taylor. On the other side of the football Chicago signed Julius Peppers who has the third-most sacks in the NFL (81) during his eight-year tenure. But the fact of the matter is that Chicago in the past two years has been one of the worst investments for bettors covering the spread just 12 times in 32 chances. Since entering the league as a professional in Denver, quarterback Jay Cutler has been a financial disaster (4-15 ATS) when cast as a home favorite. I am aware that Detroit covered the spread just once on the highway a year ago, but #1 overall draft pick Matt Stafford is now healthy and has a newly constructed offensive line in front of him. For a second consecutive draft it appears that Detroit has hit the mark with a first-round pick as Jahvid Best will be a starter at the running back position. It took Best about 3 days of training camp to convince the Lions he was ready to be a lead back. The Lions already knew about his overall speed to the edge and quickness to the hole, but Best opened eyes by showing the ability to pick up blitz packages. Best has also flashed the ability to catch the football out of the backfield which ultimately will help Stafford be a more effective quarterback. The fact that Detroit is coming off consecutive horrible seasons opens the door to a dynamic angle from my database research that applies to “game one”. NFL teams like Detroit that finished with a 4-12 record or worse each of the last two seasons are a POSITIVE 7-6 SU/10-3 ATS in season openers. It should be noted that the Lions actually won a road game straight-up during the preseason
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Dallas Cowboys -3
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The Cowboys have a lot of offensive line issues, however I do not think the Redskins are good enough up front to capitalize. The Cowboys have so many offensive weapons where, at the end of the day, Washington will not be able to keep up. This will be Donovan McNabb's first game as a Redskin. McNabb, who is no longer a threat running the ball, now has a poor group of receivers as well. The Cowboys have an excellent defense and will keep Washington in check all night. Take the Cowboys.