Black Widow
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1* on Cleveland Browns +4.5
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Cleveland catching points at home is one of the biggest mistakes the linesmakers have made this week. Yes, the Browns finished just 4-12 last year, but with a new head coach and a rejuvenated team, look for Cleveland to surprise some folks this year. The Vikings are just 1-3 ATS as road chalk under head coach Brad Childress. The Browns are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Browns played well at home in the preseason, going 2-0 SU & ATS with 27-10 and 23-17 wins over Detroit and Tennessee, respectively. That victory over the Titans was significant because the starters played for three quarters. Quinn and Anderson combined to complete 18-of-26 passes for more than 200 yards passing and 1 TD with 0 INT’s. Whoever gets the start Sunday has what it takes to lead the Browns to a season-opening win over Minnesota. The Browns are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take Cleveland and the points.
Craig Trapp
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Minnesota Vikings -4
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A new coach and GM have the Browns hoping for some magic in 2009. But that is just what they will need in 2009 if they are going to win many games this year. The good news is they have a solid offensive line that should help whoever the starting QB ends up being. The bad news is neither of there potential QB's are dependable, the RB is over the hill, and the top WR led the league with drops in 2008. If you thought it could not get worse your wrong the defense lacks playmakers and will be lucky to not be in the bottom 5 of the league.
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The Vikings are the favorite to represent the NFC in 2009. Minnesota has one of the top defenses in all of the NFL with an amazing defensive line. The Vikings take away the run from every team and dare them to throw into double coverages in the secondary. Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL and with a very solid offensive line will be almost unstoppable this year. Oh and don't forget now the Vikings have Brett Farve. Not sure the new QB puts them over the top but it is still better than the backups.
This game is easy to breakdown. The Browns struggle to stop the run verse the Vikings which might be the best in football at running the ball. The Browns have a solid offense line but will have hands full with the front 7 of the Vikings. Making Cleveland throw the ball to win spells turnovers for Cleveland. The Vikes win going away and cover by at least double digits.
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Minnesota Vikings -4
Terron Chapman
Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants
Play: Washington Redskins +6.5
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After watching the New York Giants struggle to throw the ball with any consistency in the preseason, I see it hard for them to cover the nearly touchdown’s worth of chalk posted next to their names when they host the Washington Redskins in the opener. The Giants offense appeared to be out of sync in the preseason, and quite frankly, has struggled since Plaxico Burress has not been with the team.
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A lot of pundits point to the Giants running attack, which is one of the more potent attacks in the league, to lead the Giants, especially early on while Eli and a new group of receivers get on the same page. But I don’t expect the Giants to run with ease in the opener against a Washington team which improved its run defense in the off-season with the addition of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth.
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The Redskins offense struggled early on in the preseason before turning it around in week three. However, there were some good signs for Redskins backers. Their young wide receivers showed some maturity and Clinton Portis appears to be healthy, providing Jason Campbell with plenty of weapons and a stud in the backfield. The Giants defense didn’t look like the dominant unit in the preseason that many expected to see. Granted, it was the preseason, but with several nagging injuries, once thought to be strength of the team, the Giants defense is anything but right now. With dissension in the locker room and a new defensive coordinator, those struggles should carry over to begin the season.
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With the Giants offense out of sync, and the defense battling injuries, the Giants aren’t as dominant as the line might suggest. Keep in mind this is a division game, and the Redskins will enter this one believing they can win. Look for this one to be a typical hard fought NFC east battle with points at a premium. In a low scoring affair, the Skins should hang close with a chance to steal it at the end. Take the points.
Play on the Washington Redskins for 1 unit.
Info Plays
3* on Philadelphia Eagles -1.5
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Reasons why the Eagles cover the spread:
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1.) Philly is looking to get off to a much faster start this season after having to play perfect ball down the stretch last year just to make the playoffs. The Eagles will start fast at Carolina. Philly made some great moves in the offseason to give Donovan McNabb the weapons he needs to maximize this offense. They brought in LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin via NFL draft, and both have been excellent in the preseason. This is now considered one of the top offenses in the league. Carolina did not make the proper moves to improve their offense, and the Panthers will not be able to keep up with the Eagles on the scoreboard Sunday.
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2.) The Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC foes and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Oddsmakers have listed the Eagles as the favorite because they realize who the better team is here, so take advantage and get your bets in on Philly Sunday. Bet the Eagles on the road.
Masterbets
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Bet on the PANTHERS to cover the spread
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This is an intriguing line from the first week's betting board as it has been priced up as a pick-em game, essentially. The Panthers opened at -1 and now a few sports books have made the Eagles -1. Either way it is a line that disrespects the Panthers and for no good reason. Last season Carolina looked great until coming unstuck in the postseason. Philly have poor road form in these spots, and the line is skewed due to media attention on the Eagles that doesn't translate into them being a better team.
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Both teams look set for a good season and are evenly matched, and there is no reason the Panthers shouldn't be favored by -3 points here for home field advantage, so take the value and play on the PANTHERS to cover the spread.
Doc's Sports
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Take Under in St. Louis @ Seattle
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The Hawks are looking for better success in 2009 and many experts have them pegged as one of the most improved teams this season. The Rams are in complete rebuilding mode and hired a new coach this season in Steve Spagnuolo, the former defensive coordinator of the New York Giants. This will be Coach Jim Mora’s first game as the head man with Seattle and means we have two defensive minded coaches doing battle with one another. That sets up for a perfect play with the under, as I believe the Rams only chance of making this game competitive will be to keep the scoring low. We will not worry if the Hawks can cover this big number and just collect with the under. Seattle 21, St. Louis 17.
John Martin
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1 Unit on Houston Texans -4.5
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New York Jets' starter Mark Sanchez will struggle in his first regular season start of his career. Not only is it his first start, but it comes on the road against a hungry Houston Texans' fan base so expect it to be very hostile. To make matters worse on Sanchez, his defense is missing several key players. DE Shaun Ellis and LB Calvin Pace are both missing this game Sunday due to suspension. The Jets' defense was awful in the preseason, giving up 23 or more points in every game. They'll have their hands full against a Houston offense that put up 25.7 points/game at home last season, going 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in front of their home fans. Matt Schaub is back at the helm, and this Texans' offense is one of the most potent in the league with Schaub under center and healthy. Houston has been strong at home under Gary Kubiak, 15-9 ATS since ’06. The Jets finished 0-5 ATS in their final 5 games last year, while the Texans went 6-1 ATS in their final 7 games. Cash in with Houston as the favorite.
SportsBook Breakers
Top Total
3-Star Detroit and NEW ORLEANS Under 48.5
Simply put, totals should just not be this high during week one. Generally speaking, we know less about teams from year to year than we think we know. This is particularly true when dealing with offenses and defenses expected to be amongst the best and worst of the league. For instance, the Saints finished first in the NFL for total offense in 2008. Over the last three seasons, the team that finished first in offense last season finished an average of 10th the next year. This is part of the reason why the last four total offensive leaders have all gone under in week one of the next season.Similarly, the Lions were the league’s worst defense in ‘08. Teams that have finished last in total defense the last three seasons averaged 21st in that category the next year. Further proof that the total should not be so high can be found in this trend; The league is 0-15 OU since 2001 in non-divisional games on opening weekend if the total is over 45 and the game is not on the first Thursday. ( See pg. 10 for further details)The Saints’ offense should certainly be high powered once again, but will likely need time to gel with the return of RB Reggie Bush and WR Marques Colston to full strength. The Saints traditionally play conservative in game one, going under in eight of their last 10 openers.Scoring for the Lions will likely be much more difficult.With rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford, it is likely that the Lions will use a very conservative playbook for the first week. Without taking chances that cause touchdown scoring turnovers, and with Kevin Smith leading an improved running game, Detroit should be able to hold the ball long enough to keep New Orleans score down.
Prediction: NEW ORLEANS 24, Detroit 14
Carlo Campanella
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Over
Detroit added a lot of talent during the offseason to the offense, mainly QB Matt Stafford, but they haven't done much to improve their disgraceful defense, which allowed 32 points per game last year during their winless 0-16 season. We find these Lions going "Over" in 18 of their last 24 road games and now head to New Orleans to play in the dome, where the Saints have posted a 16-8 (Over/Under) record. The Saints averaged 29 points per game last year, while putting up at least 24 points in EVERY home game last season. In fact, this Saints offense put up 29 points or more in 6 of their 8 home games! With Detroit improved on offense and the Saints owning one of the NFL's highest-powered offenses, this game should FLY over the total on this opening Sunday.
7* Play On OVER
Wunderdog
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +7
The 2009-10 NFL season will open without Tony Dungy at the helm of a team for the first time in over a decade. Dungy established himself as one of the all-time greats, winning at Tampa Bay and Indianapolis, including a Super Bowl a couple of years ago. Jim Caldwell takes over for the Colts as they face the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Jags could never get anything going a year ago as nothing seemed to go right for this team. They went from 11 wins in 2007 to five in 2008 thanks primarily to an injury-riddled offensive line that forced them away from their successful play action passing attack. They lost both starting guards and their center in the very early going and no team is going to win when that happens. It led to a running game that was literally grounded and exposed QB David Garrard to 42 sacks (double his previous high). The offensive line is healthy to start the season and Garrard lost 20 pounds in the off-season, setting up a swifter QB and back to the rollout play action formations in which he has had his greatest success. Maurice Jones-Drew finally gets to tote the rock exclusively and this team will be better for it. I expect the Jags to improve tremendously on offense this year. The Jags match up well with the Colts up front and their hard-nosed smash mouth tactics have taken advantage of Indy's weak interior defense. The Jags have always played well against the Colts and these games are very frequently tight and hotly contested. The last 14 times these teams have met, 12 games were decided by eight points or less and the Jags have covered four straight at Indianapolis. Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio is now 5-1 ATS as a divisional dog of 7+ points. This is just too many points in a division rivalry like this one. The line is big because Jacksonville is underrated. I like the Jags to put up a real fight here.
Robert Ferringo
Take ‘Under’ 41.5 St. Louis at Seattle
This number is one of just a few NFL spreads that I think are way, way too high for the opening weekend. Generally early in the season the defenses are way ahead of the offenses and that plays out with sloppier, lower-scoring games. St. Louis doesn’t have nearly the same number of playmakers that it has had in the past and starting quarterback Marc Bulger is just coming back this week from an injury. Steve Spagnuolo has the St. Louis defense playing more aggressively. And against a Seattle offensive line that has really struggled this preseason with three new starters that could help us hold this number down. The ‘under’ is 7-1 in St. Louis’ last eight season openers. That’s a trend that I see continuing based on the matchups and this inflated number.
Captain Morgan Sports
Saints @ Lions
Play Under
Lions defense can't stop any NFL team, but they do have a solid core of receivers and I have a feeling their offense will be passing alot in this contest. Saints have a well balanced offense and will score on a poorous Lions defense
SportsInsights
Atlanta Falcons -4 over Miami Dolphins
The Atlanta Falcons is an interesting play highlighted by certain NFL sports marketplace indicators. When the lines for the first week of the season went up, much of the early action was coming in on the Dolphins. The heavy betting on Miami had SportsInsights' analysts keying in on Atlanta as a potential "contrarian" bet. However, during the past few days, "sharp money" started landing on Atlanta. The "betting percentages" have evened out, but the line has started to tick up to Atlanta -4.5 -- a sure indication of "big money" or "smart money" taking Atlanta. Betonline.com with a record of 8-2, + 5.4 units triggered a Smart Money Play on Atlanta -4.
Our readers know that we love to follow the "smart money." We also like to "bet against the public." This game is unique in that both of these indicators pointed to the Falcons at different times during the week. Both Atlanta and Miami had strong seasons last year. Although Miami surprised everyone last year, they had a relatively easy schedule due to their horrendous season the year before. Look for the Dolphins to come back to earth a bit this season. If you shop the line around you'll find a couple of solid sportsbooks offering Atlanta -3.5 which gets you off the key number 4. We getting down at Atlanta -3.5 -110 at 5Dimes.
Atlanta Falcons -3.5
Tampa Bay Bucs +6 over Dallas Cowboys
This is currently one of Sunday's most heavily-bet games, with over 80% of the bets taking the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is always a "public" team and SportsInsights' "betting percentages" highlight the heavy one-sided action. We like the value in "betting against the public" and taking the Tampa Bay Bucs, a very capable home underdog.
The line opened at Dallas -3 but the heavy action on "America's Team" has moved the point spread a huge 3 points. This huge line move through several "key football numbers" gives us some nice value. Take Tampa Bay as a "live home dog" and shop around for the best line you can get. You can currently get Tampa Bay +6 at nice vig -- but with the continued pounding of bets down on Dallas, the line could tick up to +6.5 or better.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 -105
Washington Redskins +6.5 over New York Giants
The Giants are one of the favorites to get to the Superbowl. On the other hand, the Redskins are Superbowl long-shots who finished in the basement of the NFC East. Readers of our NFL MarketWatch series of newsletters know that we love to find "sports investing value" by taking teams that look overmatched. With about 70% of the bets coming down on the Giants, we will "bet against the Public" and take the Washington Redskins.
When seeking "contrarian value" -- we like taking underdogs in rivalries -- and particularly divisional rivalries in the NFL. The Washington Redskins should be particularly fired up for this divisional match-up on opening day. As we near game-time, the line may tick up to Washington +7. For now, we'll take the widely available +6.5.
Washington Redskins +6.5
So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week's Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.
Games to Watch (0-0-0)
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 -110
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 -105
Washington Redskins +6.5 -105
Alex Smart
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Atlanta Falcons -3.5
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The public just seems to love the Miami Dolphins this week, getting points against their hosts the Atlanta Falcons according to the amount of early money that went down on them to cover the number . Truth is despite of the Dolphins decent season in 2008 their schedule was weak and the team overall still has a lot of glaring weaknesses. Meanwhile, the Falcons, surprised a lot of pundits last season as rookie QB Matt Ryan took the league by storm. The former Boston College super star prospects continue to look promising behind a pass offense that feeds off a strong ground game that is high lighted by the legs of RBs Micheal Turner and Jerious Norwood. Because of a few key off season acquisitions on offense the Falcons will be even more dangerous this season. With that said, Im going directly against public sentiment and back ing Atlanta to easily come away with the win in week 1.
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Final notes & Key Trends: Dolphins are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Falcons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 1. Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
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Play on the Atlanta Falcons
Will Cover
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Washington at NY Giants
Play UNDER 37
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How low can this one go? Last year at this site in Week One, the G-Men prevailed 16-7 and we see more of the same in this contest. Skins have a solid ‘D’ that only allowed 295 YPG last season but their ‘O’ is a work in progress with QB Campbell yet to prove he can beat an elite team. Redmen have averaged just 9 PPG last five games at the Giants and are 8-1 to the UNDER last nine in the Meadowlands. With New York, we have one of the NFL’s best defenses and on offense, ‘Rich Kid’ Eli Manning no longer has ‘Plex or Toomer’ to stretch the defense. NYG stand 8-2 to the UNDER last 10 vs NFC East foes. Big Blue runs the clock on the ground and this one stays UNDER the TOTAL!