Ron Raymond
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BAL -13 vs KAN
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Both Teams have seen the UNDER go to 4-1-0 the last 5 years in week 1. Chiefs QB Cassels has been wearing a knee brace during practice this week and if he can't go, Brodie Coyle is your starter in a very tough venue.
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Plus, when a BALTIMORE RAVENS football team played as a -10.0 or more Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - Playing on a turf surface; The Ravens are 9-1 SU and 7-3-0 ATS in this spot.
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Forecast: Baltimore 20 KC 6
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
CINCINNATI -4 over Denver: Wether it's orton or Brandstater at QB for the Broncs they just don't have the offense to stay with a heathly Bengals team in this one. Denver's defense may also be the worst in the league. A rare easy home win for the Bengals.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
SEATTLE -8.5 over St Louis: Go against any true rookie HC vs a division foe in the first 2 weeks of the season. This angle is 17-4-2 since 2000. The rams are in for a long year and come into this one really beat up on the OL. Seattle should shutv them down on their way to an easy DD win.
Giants/ Skins Under 37.5: Skins are 4-17-1 UNDER as div road dogs, while the Giants are 7-17-1 UNDER as div home faves. Mid 20's at best here.
NY Jets/ Houston Over 43.5
2 UNIT PLAYS
Dallas -6 over TAMPA BAY
Green Bay/ Chicago Over 46.5
1 UNIT PLAYS
Kansas City/ Baltimore Under 36
San Fran +6.5 over ARIZONA
Vernon Croy
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +13
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We are getting very good line value here Sunday afternoon with the Chiefs who should be no more than 7 point dogs since they come into this season as an improved team. The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games as an underdog of +10.5 or more and they have covered 4 of their last 5 games on the road dating back to last season. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these two teams and double digit dogs have tended to thrived in the first few weeks of the season. Matt Cassel has been practicing all week and he will more than likely be the starter Sunday against the Ravens so I anticipate this line to drop. Take the Kansas City Chiefs as my NFL Free Play for Sunday.
Tommy Gill
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Dallas Cowboys -5.5
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I wish I had published this a weeks ago at -3 but whatever I think Dallas is going to own a Tampa team that is going to have some major issues on Defense and offense this season. Tampa is missing their starting free safety for this game due to a suspension and they had to bring their weak side linebacker back to play safety. Also this will be only the 4th start for their other starter at Strong Safety. They have 2 second year players starting at weak and strong linebacker in this game. For Dallas they are going to be a run first and long drive team this year with no real deep threats this season. Jason Whitten should have a very big game due to these players for Tampa not starting and new players. Romo should have no problem as well finding open receivers and if they descide to spread the field they should exploit this weak secondary of Tampa. I would give Dallas ever single advantage in this game from Special Teams to the Water Boy so I think this game will not be close this week.
Alex Grosse
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Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Under 40
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There is a fair amount of value in playing the UNDER in this interconference matchup. The Vikings are one of the league’s strongest defensive teams. Last year they ranked 4th in sacks (45), were tied for 3rd in forced fumbles (22) and ranked first in rushing yards allowed (76.8). They ranked 18th for passing yards allowed (215.6) but managed to improve significantly from 2007 when they were dead last allowing an average of 264.5 passing yards.
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The bottom line is that Minnesota’s defense will be too strong for Cleveland’s mediocre offense that managed to score only 14.5 points per game last season. There is no doubt that Cleveland will definitely be better than last year under new head coach Eric Mangini and 2 healthy starting quarterbacks, but they still have a long way to go. Mangini is a defensive genius and will focus his efforts heavily on controlling the clock and strengthening his defense. The addition of Brett Favre to the Minnesota Vikings does not turn this team into an offensive powerhouse but definitely gives the Vikings the opportunity to be a Super Bowl Contender. It is quite obvious that Favre is not the same QB as he was in his Green Bay era but he can help the Vikings win games by making simple completions, and obviously by not throwing interceptions. Minnesota’s offense will still rely heavily on Adrian Peterson as Favre will have to adjust to the Vikings playbook. In the end, both teams will be heavily running the ball in this matchup. This game will be heavily concentrated on field position. I can’t see too many touchdowns being scored in this one.
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There are a few trends favoring the UNDER in this one. UNDER is 8-3 in Cleveland’s last 11 home games and 5-1 in its last 6 Week 1 contests. UNDER is 7-3-1 in Minnesota’s last 11 games in September. Lay 2 units on the UNDER.
Joseph D'Amico
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -6
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The returning NFC Champion Arizona Cardinal's are as good or better than they were a season ago. The one place that they needed help was in their running game. They went out and got Beanie Wells to help out Tim Highsmith. The high-flying air attack will start right where they left off. Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Breaston are the best trio of receivers in the game. The Card's won both games last season over the Niner's. However they did split the covers. Outside of the 4 point loss in the Super Bowl, Arizona won their 4 previous games decisively over 4 solid squads. San Fransisco had a nice story last season with the addition of HC Mike Singletary. But are still a few players short of a strong team. Their defense can not contend with the outstanding air attack of Arizona. I look for the Cardinal's to come out and make a statemenet. The 49er's are 2-6-1 ATS their last 9 vs. the NFC. The Card's are 5-0 ATS their last 5 overall, 4-0 ATS their last 4 vs. the NFC, and 9-2 ATS their last 11 as a a favorite. Take Arizona. Thank you.
John Ryan
Dallas at Tampa Bay
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This is actually a very important game for both teams to begin the season and to get off a solid victory. AiS shows a 70% probability that 39 or more points will be scored in this game. Public has bet this total down from an opening of 42 and I always like being on the house side of the money. AiS also projects a 65% probability that both teams will score 20 or more points. Dallas is also 6-1 OVER last 3 seasons in games that are statistically close with them out gaining their opponents by 0.5 yards per play or less. TB is also 6-1 OVER when they are out gained by 0.5 yards per play over the past 3 seasons.
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I also like a 3* amount playing OVER the 1st half total. Utilizing the projections from the AiS Dallas is 64-16 OVER (+46.4 Units) the 1rst half total when both teams score 20 or more points since 1992; 40-15 OVER (+23.5 Units) the 1rst half total when both teams score 20 or more points since 1992.
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The Dallas game plan will be ball control and will be established either by the run or the pass first. TO is now in Buffalo and Dallas does not have a true deep threat. Perhaps a good thing though as Romo’s best asset is his timing and accuracy and all of the receivers are ball control, sure handed types. Whitten is the best TE in football and he will be an integral part of the pass attack. I also believe Dallas will use him in post/fly patterns on the seams when TB shows 7 or more in the box. Marion Barber is a punishing runner and that style is augmented by an excellent OL and also the “slash” type RB in Felix Jones. Like a 3 headed monster, Dallas will be able to move the ball and score almost at will based on my research.
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TB has Leftwich under center and many think Dallas will blitz and blitz more at the immobile QB. Yet, they truly can’t get away with that given that TB has deep threats in TE Kellen Windslow and WR Antonio Bryant. Look for Dallas to play a mostly zone scheme and not give up the big play. This scheme allows TB to also move the ball and score points. Take the OVER.
Scott Rickenbach
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-) vs St Louis
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Seattle is laying some big points here but it is justified. The Rams are trying to adjust to a new head coach in Steve Spagnuolo. Also, this means a new West Coast offense for QB Marc Bulger to try to get comfortable with. We certainly don’t expect the Rams to look very “comfortable” on either side of the ball early this season. As for the Seahawks, although there a few injury issues – namely left tackle Jones, center Spencer and cornerback Trufant – they do have a lot of positives to turn to here. QB Matt Hasselbeck is back and looks healthy. Also, the Hawks front seven on defense looks bigger and more talented than they’ve had together in quite some time. Even though head coach Jim Mora, Jr is new to the position with the Seahawks, he had already been with Seattle the past few seasons as an assistant so this is a big plus for the Hawks compared to all the growing pains the Rams are likely to go through in Game One of this season with Spagnuolo at the helm.
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Note that Bulger barely got any playing time in the preseason because he broke his pinkie finger on his throwing hand. This is not a good spot for the Rams to try and get healthy as the Seahawks are one of the toughest home teams in the league. While the points may seem a little steep, note that Seattle is 8-4 in their last 12 NFC West games while the Rams are just 3-9 their last 12 in divisional action. Also, the Seahawks are a perfect 4-0 the last four seasons when hosting the Rams. Also, they won three of those games against St Louis by at least a 15 point margin. It looks like another huge win here as the Rams begin their rebuilding “project” in a tough place. Seattle is 35-13 at Qwest Field the last six seasons! Consider a small play on the SEAHAWKS on Sunday.
Jimmy the Moose
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
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Both teams are coming off disastrous 2008 season’s and in week 1 they both have visions of being a playoff team. Still to early to tell if it will happen for either team but one thing is for sure, it will be fun watching either team play this season.
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The Denver Broncos have had major issues in the off-season and they rectified one of them by dealing Cutler to the Bears and the other one, Brandon Marshall will be on the field for them in week. Marshall has been a headache for Denver but he is also their best player. Kyle Orton will lead the offense this season and with new head coach Josh McDaniels expect Orton to have a good game and a decent season. Orton has several good options and McDaniels will try and get this offense to move like the Patriots moves. Denver will be able to run the ball and score points but their D will again be their biggest weakness. The over is a profitable 24-11-2 in their last 37 games overall. In their last 15 road games the over is 10-4-1 and the over is 16-6-1 in their last 23 games vs. an AFC team.
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Cincinnati’s offense will look a lot better this year with Carson Palmer on the field and a happier Ochocinco. With the addition of Coles, Benson at RB and Chris Henry out of trouble this offense has explosive potential. The D will have some work to do to keep the other team’s out of the endzone but with this offense they can and will trade punches with the opposition. The over is 5-2 in the Bengals last 7 games as a home favorite between 3.5 – 10.
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Both teams will be more focused on the offensive side of the ball and will hope that their D can hold them into the game. Look for both teams to open it up and score a lot of points. There is no doubt that this game will be a high-scoring affair.
Play the Broncos/Bengals Over
Sports Gambling Hotline
Denver at CINCINNATI
We are on a 32-17-3 free play run the last 52 days!
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Always a crap-shoot on week one of the NFL season, but one things seems certain, Denver and Cincinnati are going to be very offensively-challenged at Paul Brown Stadium this afternoon.
The Broncos looked pretty bad this preseason, and we feel the growing pains of having a 1st year head coach in Josh McDaniels is going to make it very hard for Denver to find some consistent offense.
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Denver did not top 19-points in any of their 4 exhibition games, and of course starting QB Kyle Orton does have that finger injury on his throwing hand to contend with.
Throw in the fact the Bengals have played UNDER the total in 15 of their last 21 games, and we have the makings of a LOW-SCORING affair on opening day in the Queen City.
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Play on the UNDER.
4♦ UNDER
Stephen Nover
N.Y. JETS +4 at Houston
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You have to go back to 1977 in researching when the Jets last started a rookie quarterback. That's the longest stretch any team has gone without starting a rookie at the position. The guy's name was Matt Robinson and he didn't work out for New York. Will Mark Sanchez turn out better?
The answer is he doesn't have to be in this game for the Jets to cover.
The Jets have surrounded Sanchez with playoff caliber talent, including six returning Pro Bowl players. They're excited about playing for Rex Ryan and they're united behind Sanchez; they believe in him.
Personally I think Sanchez, with his USC pedigree, will be fine. The Jets have the necessary talented running backs to take advantage of the Texans' soft run defense, which was gashed in preseason by Adrian Peterson (117 yards on 11 carries) and Mike Bell (100 yards on 10 attempts). Sanchez will be able to pick his spots. The pressure of moving the ball will be on veteran backs Thomas Jones and underrated Leon Washington, who run behind a very good offensive line.
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The Texans aren't a strong enough team to be laying more than a field goal to a playoff contender. Their defense remains a work in progress. Houston, however, has weapons on offense. But, quarterback Matt Schaub suffered an ankle injury and didn't get much preseason work in. That could keep him from reaching his A game level in the opener.
The Texans also may be missing their No. 2 wideout Kevin Walter, who has been sidelined by a hamstring injury. He's a game-time decision.
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The Jets will be without suspended defensive lineman Shaun Ellis and linebacker/end Calvin Pace, also suspended. Even without those two, though, they have the better defense. They've also covered six of the past seven times they've been a road underdog.
3♦ N.Y JETS
Karl Garrett
Detroit at NEW ORLEANS
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Friday comp play winner on Baltimore-NY Yankees OVER the total. Saturday comp play winner on Houston OUTRIGHT over Oklahoma State!
Let's move on to Sunday, and free play winner # 3 in a row.
Well, the G-Man is not sure just how long it will take the Lions to notch their first regular season win this year, but I can tell you I feel pretty sure Detroit will at least score some points in this game at the Superdome.
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Detroit is on a 18-6 OVER run away from home, and their offense will at least get to go up against a New Orleans defense that is still a work in progress, and will also be missing a pair of suspended players in Will Smith, and Charles Grant.
New Orleans looked quite sharp on offense this preseason, and should be able to crack the endzone with regularity in this game, as the Saints have been involved in 16 OVERS in their last 24 home games.
As they say in the Big Easy, "Let the good times roll", and let the points pile up!
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G-Man going OVER in the dome on opening Sunday.
5♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco +6 at ARIZONA
It's the first Sunday of the NFL season and I've got a winning FREEBIE for you on the Niners as they stroll into the desert to face Arizona.
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Believe it or not, this is a rivalry game that has been quite entertaining the last few seasons. I like what coach Mike Singletary has brought to San Francisco and I'm grabbing the points in this one with the Niners.
San Francisco won four of its last five to end 2008, going 3-1-1 ATS in the process. The offense should be quite capable of scoring with QB Shaun Hill and RB Frank Gore. Hill beat out former No. 1 pick Alex Smith in the preseason and with Hill at the helm the Niners are 7-3. He threw for 2,046 yards, 13 TDs and 8 INTs a season ago while Gore ran for 1,036 yards. The offense is there, it's the defense that Singletary has been working on after they allowed 23.8 points a game last year, 23rd in the league.
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Arizona is coming off that amazing playoff run that had them a play or two from winning the Super Bowl. Watch out though, as teams that have lost the Super Bowl have not responded well the next season. Think about it - the Bears lost to the Colts and didn't do anything the next year. The Pats lost to the Giants and struggled without Brady at QB. The Seahawks lost to the Steelers and crapped out the next year.
Call it the Super Bowl hangover, but I expect the Cardinals to struggle with it this season.
The Cards aren't going to surprise the Niners with anything. Arizona won both meetings last year, but failed to cover at home in a 29-24 home win as 9 1/2-point favorites. Remember that game, it's when the Niners were at the goal line and time expired on them. The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two and the Niners are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to Arizona.
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San Francisco is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight overall and 4-1 ATS as a 'dog. I'll gladly grab the points in this one with the Niners because if they lose, it'll be by a field goal or less.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Game Time Sports Advisors
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Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants
Play: Washington Redskins +6.5
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Have to take the points in what will be a slug match. Giants have Jacobs and Bradshaw back, but Portis is no slouch. Washington has more weapons on the offensive side of the ball. Manning still looking for a big target. The Giants D should make life difficult for Cambell. ALbert Haynesworth is a monster and should slow the Giants run game. Late FG decides this one.
Marc Lawrence
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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
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The defending Super Bowl loser Arizona Cardinals kick off the 2009 campaign in Glendale where they host the San Francisco 49ers in an NFC West division tilt. The biggest burden the Redbirds will need to overcome is being the defending Super Bowl losers as these teams are just 2-7 SU and 0-9 ATS in season openers this decade. In addition Zona is 1-8 ATS in September against division avenging foes. With Frisco 4-1 ATS puppies under head coach Mike Singletary, look for the upset here today. Take the points with the Niners.