LARRY NESS
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Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
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The Cards opened this three-game series with the Braves having won 31 of their last 40 games. Meanwhile, Atlanta entered having lost six of its last eight. However, the Braves won 1-0 on Friday and then Saturday afternoon, after the Cards had taken a 6-5 lead in the bottom of the eighth with two runs, Brian McCann of Atlanta hit a two-run double in the top of the ninth. The Braves then held on to win 7-6. Can the Braves pull off the sweep? I think not. Atlanta will send Javier Vazquez to the mound and while he's had a decent season (12-9 with a 3.01 ERA in 28 starts / team is 15-13), his year can't come close to matching what St Louis' Chris Carpenter has done. Carpenter won they CY Young award in 2005 (21-5 / 2.83 ERA) but his 2009 season has been even more dominant. He leads all of MLB with a 2.16 ERA, taking a 16-3 record into this game in 24 starts. Surprisingly, the Cards have lost all five of his no decisions this year. However, I'm not betting on a no decision for Carpenter. He's 11-0 with a 1.97 ERA over his last 13 starts and while the Cards are safe in the NL Central (lead the Cubs by 10 1/2 games), they are still in a life-and-death struggle with the both the Dodgers and the Phils for home-field advantage in the NLCS. Take St Louis.
TEDDY COVERS
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St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
PICK: St. Louis Rams +9
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When Seattle went to the Super Bowl in 2005, they had one of the most dominant offensive lines in all of football. Walter Jones, Steve Hutchinson, Floyd Womack, Robbie Tobeck and Sean Locklear paved the way for all of Seattle’s offensive success that season. Since that Super Bowl run, the Seahawks offensive line has gradually declined. This year, it’s nothing short of a complete mess.
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Guard Mike Wahle retired just before training camp. Walter Jones is hurt. Chris Spencer is hurt. That leaves a starting unit of Ray Willis, Mansfield Wrotto, Steve Vallos, Rob Sims and Sean Locklear, a truly underwhelming unit for a team learning Greg Knapp’s new offense. When we add into the equation a true dearth of talent at running back, the offensive line weakness becomes an even bigger problem. And let’s not forget that this will be the Seahawks first look at Steve Spagnuolo’s hyper-aggressive blitzing defense in St Louis, making those offensive line deficiencies stand out like a sore thumb for a favorite in this price range.
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The Rams are not going to be playoff contenders this year, but they are a team with hope and direction after two years of utter ineptitude. We saw the Rams own offensive line come through with a tremendous performance in their Week 3 ‘regular season walkthrough’ game at Cincinnati, completely dominating the Bengals at the line of scrimmage. Expect St Louis to hang tough at Seattle on Sunday, covering this inflated pointspread. 2* Take St Louis.
MATT FARGO
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Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns
PICK: Cleveland Browns +4.5
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The Vikings are going to be a popular team this season with the addition of Brett Favre. The public is all over them in this spot as road favorites and this is not even a typical road favorite as the number has crept up over that key number of three. I am a fan of the Minnesota running game as well as the defense but the quarterback situation brings in down to another level. Favre has spent very little time with the team and even if he has been reading the playbook all summer, his lack of experience with his players is a major liability this early in the season. Favre has yet to hook up with wide receiver Bernard Berrian in a game atmosphere as he suffered a hamstring injury in Minnesota's exhibition game at Indianapolis and did not play in another preseason game. Cleveland should be an improved team this season and the simple reason for that is it will be playing harder as last season the Browns clearly quit on head coach Romeo Crennel. They limped in with six straight losses and an offense that seemed to have no clue, scoring a total of just 31 points in those final six contests. The main culprits were quarterbacks Bruce Gradkowski and Ken Dorsey who started four of those games between the two while Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson were involved in just one game each. Quinn was named the starting quarterback late this week and I think it was the right choice. I also think that it was a smart move on head coach Eric Mangini’s part to name the starter late as it gives the Vikings that much less time to prepare. I think the passing game can have some success against Minnesota. The Vikings had the best rush defense in the league last season but finished as the 18th ranked passing defense and allowed 7.1 ypa which was 21st in the league. One player who could bust out here is Braylon Edwards. He had some tough moments last season after having a fantastic season in 2007. This being a contract year means play gets stepped up and don’t be surprised to see it right from the start as he is a tough matchup for the Vikings secondary. His size, strength and athleticism give him the ability to out-battle the shorter cornerbacks. Minnesota is just 1-3 ATS in its four games under head coach Brad Childress as a road favorite. Cleveland meanwhile is on a 5-0-1 ATS run in its last six games as an underdog between 3.5 and 10 points. Dome teams coming outdoors is always a challenge and that is the case with Minnesota as it is 7-10 ATS outdoors including a 2-4 ATS record last season. 3* Cleveland Browns
Rob Vinciletti
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5
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Tampa comes into this one with a new coach in Raheem Morris. No doubt they will be fired up and ready to go. Its worth noting that the Bucs have always been a fantastic non divisional home dog. Tampa has covered 10 of 11 times in this role. Dallas will be a very public play today as the line is now up to six,up three points from the original early opening line of three. Dallas has lost the last two times they have played here. Today they fit a big negative system that cashes nearly 90%. What we want to do is play against certain road favorites in week one of the season, if they have a conference home game in week two. I would wait as long as possible in this one as the line may shoot up before game time. I think this one will be a close game.
John Ryan
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers +3
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Carolina as they host Philadelphia set to start at 1:00 EST. Eagles were not good at all in all facets of the pre-season and were perhaps their worst in week 3 – the dress rehearsal for week 1. Plus, the Eagles have had a ton of injuries on defense and they could not stop the run last year. Now, with so many new starters it will be even tougher for them to stop the 2-headed running monster in Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Where the Eagles become completely exposed is in play action pass plays. I just can’t see DT Patterson and Bunkley winning the LOS against Carolina’s huge interior linemen. Watch the beginning of the game and see how many times in the first 3 series that those interior linemen get to the second level of defenders. If it is more than 2/3 rds of the time then the Eagles defense could get torched for a huge scoring barrage. HC Fox is a solid 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of Carolina. AiS shows a 65% probability that Carolina will win this game. It also shows a 90% probability that they will gain more than 125 rushing yards. Note that Carolina is 8-2 ATS over the past 3 seasons and 30-10 ATS since 1992 when they gain 125 or more rushing yards. Take Carolina.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Dallas at Tampa Bay
The Cowboys, coming off a disappointing end to the 2008 season, kick things off by traveling to Raymond James Stadium to take on the Buccaneers, who are now led by 34-year-old coach Raheem Morris.
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Dallas dropped its last two regular-season games, including a 44-6 beatdown as a 2½-point pup at Philadelphia in the finale that cost the team a playoff berth, finishing with a 9-7 SU record (7-9 ATS). Despite missing three midseason games due to injury, QB Tony Romo had a productive year, passing for 3,448 yards, with 26 TDs and 14 INTs, but the Cowboys finished 18th in the league in scoring at 22.6 ppg, while gaining 344.5 ypg (13th).
The Pokes finished eighth in the league in total defense (294.3 ypg), but they gave up 22.8 ppg (20th).
Tampa Bay (9-7 SU, 7-8-1 ATS in 2008) was 9-3 through 12 games last year, then went on an 0-4 SU skid (1-3 ATS), including a 31-24 home setback to lowly Oakland as an 11-point chalk to end the season and cost coach Jon Gruden his job. The Bucs QB Jeff Garcia (11 starts, 2,712 yards, 12 TDs, 6 INTs) was not retained by Tampa, which will now turn to Byron Leftwich as the starter. Leftwich, who started for three-plus seasons to open his career in Jacksonville, spent last season as a backup with the Super Bowl-champion Steelers.
The Bucs finished ninth in total defense (306.1 ypg) and 10th total defense (20.2 ppg), and the offense was 14th in the league at 341 ypg, generating 22.6 ppg (19th). Morris hired offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski in the spring, but fired him last week after a lackluster preseason.
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Dallas has covered in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 SU), dating to 2001. Last year, the Cowboys earned a 13-9 home win as a one-point chalk in a game Romo sat out. The home team is on a 5-0 ATS run, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS during that stretch.
The Cowboys are on ATS upticks of 7-2 in September, 5-1 laying points and 4-1 in NFC games, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Bucs are on pointspread runs of 17-5-1 as a home pup and 6-1 in September, though they are stuck in ATS ruts of 1-4 overall and 1-4 at home, and they’ve cashed in just one of their last five season openers.
The over for Dallas is on tears of 17-8-2 on the road, 5-1 in season openers and 7-3-1 in September, and the total has gone high in four of Tampa Bay’s last five as a home ‘dog. However, the under for the Bucs is on stretches of 5-1 to open the season and 6-2 against the NFC, and the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
Detroit at New Orleans
The Lions, coming off their NFL record-setting winless campaign, hope to begin the turnaround when they travel to the Superdome to face the high-octane Saints.
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Detroit went a dismal 0-16 SU in 2008, though it was a more middling 7-9 ATS, cashing in three of its last four games. The lousy season got GM Matt Millen and coach Rod Marinelli fired, and Jim Schwartz has taken over as coach after previously guiding the Titans’ defense. No. 1 overall draft pick Matt Stafford won the starting QB job over veteran Daunte Culpepper, and the former Georgia standout will try to resurrect an offense that finished 27th in points (16.8) and 30th in yards (268.2) last year.
The Lions’ defense was even worse in ’08, allowing a whopping 404.4 ypg and 32.3 ppg – both league worsts.
New Orleans had a prolific offense last season behind QB Drew Brees, but that was only enough for an 8-8 SU record (10-5-1 ATS). Brees threw for 5,069 yards (34 TDs, 17 INTs), falling just short of Dan Marino’s all-time NFL record (5,084), but the Saints were inconsistent all year, alternating wins and losses over the last five games and winning two in a row just once in ’08.
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The offense, not surprisingly, led the NFL in yards (410.7) and points (28.9), but the defense allowed 339.5 ypg (23rd) and 24.6 ppg (26th), and New Orleans finished minus-4 in turnover ratio.
New Orleans’ biggest rout last year was a 42-7 victory at Detroit as a 7-point favorite in Week 16. Brees lit it up by going 30 of 40 for 351 yards and two TDs to snap a 3-0 SU and ATS run by the Lions in this rivalry. The underdog had covered in four straight meetings before New Orleans’ rout last year.
The Saints are on spread-covering streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 5-0 giving points, 4-1 at home and 4-1-1 against NFC foes, and New Orleans went 6-1 ATS as a chalk last year (4-1 ATS as a home chalk). The Lions, despite their dismal SU record last season, went 6-2 ATS on the highway, covering in their last six roadies (all as an underdog). They are on further ATS surges of 5-1 in season openers and 13-3 as a road pup of more than 10 points.
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The under has hit in five of New Orleans’ last six season debuts, but the “over” trends take off from there for the Saints, including 15-5-1 overall, 11-1-1 at home, 20-6-1 in conference play and 12-4-1 as a favorite. Likewise, the over for Detroit is on tears of 16-5-1 overall, 19-7 on the road and 20-8-1 with the Lions an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
The Colts, who lost coach Tony Dungy to retirement, open the Jim Caldwell era by immediately jumping into division play with an AFC South contest against the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium.
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Indianapolis went a solid 12-4 SU (8-8 ATS) in 2008, but had to settle for the wild card after finishing second in the division to the 13-3 Titans. That proved fatal in the first round of the playoffs, with the Colts forced to travel to San Diego to face the Chargers, who at 8-8 still won the AFC West and the automatic home playoff game. Indy was sent packing in a 23-17 overtime loss as a 1½-point favorite.
QB Peyton Manning had a typical year, completing 66.8 percent of his passes for 4,002 yards, with 27 TDs and 12 INTs, but Indianapolis finished a mediocre 15th in total offense (335.5 ypg) and 13th in scoring (23.6 ppg), primarily due to a rushing attack that finished 31st (79.6 ypg). Indy finished seventh in scoring defense (18.6 ppg) and 11th total defense (310.9 ypg).
Jacksonville followed its 2007 divisional playoff run with a 2008, going 5-11 SU (4-12 ATS), including a 1-6 SU and ATS freefall to close the campaign. QB David Garrard, who had 18 TDs and just three picks in 2007, came back down to earth with 15 TDs against 13 INTs while throwing for 3,620 yards last year, and he was sacked 42 times. The Jags mustered just 18.9 ppg (24th) and 319.1 ypg (20th). On defense, Jacksonville finished 17th in ypg (330.9) and 21st in points allowed (22.9).
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These two teams split their 2008 meetings, with the visitor winning and covering each time, as Jacksonville notched a 23-21 road win getting four points in September, and Indianapolis prevailed 31-24 in Jacksonville as a 5½-point chalk in December. In fact, the road team has covered in the last four clashes, and the Jags are on a 4-1 ATS run in Indy.
The Colts have cashed in four of their last six season openers and are on a 14-6-1 ATS tear in September, but they are mired in ATS funks of 2-6 at home, 3-7 laying points in Indy and 5-11 inside the AFC South. The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 season debuts, but they are on pointspread declines of 0-6 in the AFC, 0-4 in division play, 1-5 as a ‘dog and 1-4 on the road.
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For Indianapolis, the under is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in season openers and 9-4 in September, and the under for Jacksonville is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 6-1 as a pup and 4-1-1 on the road. However, the over is 5-1 in the Colts’ last six division games, and the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry, including the last three in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
N.Y. Jets at Houston
The Jets unveil rookie starting quarterback Mark Sanchez when they invade Reliant Stadium to open the season against the Texans.
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New York went 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) last year, blowing an 8-3 SU start behind QB Brett Favre by finishing the year on a 1-4 SU skid, failing to cover in all five games. Eric Mangini was subsequently fired, and Rex Ryan, the longtime Ravens defensive coordinator, was hired to take his place. Favre then went through his retired/unretired routine and the Jets traded up on draft day and grabbed Sanchez with the fifth overall pick in the draft. The former USC star beat out Kellen Clemens for the starting job to lead an offense that last year finished ninth in ppg (25.3) and 16th in ypg (331.7), with the league’s ninth-best rushing attack (125.2 ypg).
Sanchez will be the first rookie QB to start on opening day for the Jets since 1960, and the youngster has never played in a dome, nor has New York since Week 15 of the 2006 season. On the other side of the ball, the Jets finished 16th in total defense (329.4 ypg) and 15th in scoring defense (22.2).
Houston went on a 5-1 SU and 6-1 ATS tear to end the season, falling just short of its first-ever winning season, ending up at 8-8 SU and ATS. QB Matt Schaub missed five games due to injuries, but he started in six victories, including the last three, finishing with 3,043 yards (15 TDs, 10 INTs).
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Houston was third in the league in total offense (382.1 ypg), paced by the fourth-best passing attack (266.7 ypg), but that only translated to 22.9 ppg (17th). The Texans finished 22nd in total defense (336.6 ypg) and 27th in scoring defense (24.6 ppg), and the Texans had a minus-10 turnover differential.
These teams have met three times, with the Jets winning and covering all three, including a 26-11 home win as a 4½-point chalk in 2006. New York won 19-14 giving three points in 2003 in the only previous contest held in Houston.
The Jets are on a 6-1 ATS run as a road pup, but along with their current 0-5 ATS slide, they are on a 5-14 ATS purge as a non-division road ‘dog. The Texans are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 at Reliant (4-1 ATS in their last five) and are 4-1 ATS in their last five against AFC foes, but they’ve cashed in just one of their last five season openers.
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The over for New York is on streaks of 5-1-1 in conference play and 8-3-1 in September, and the over for Houston is on upticks of 6-0 in September and 5-2 with the Texans a home favorite. However, the under was the play in five of the Texans’ last six games of the 2008 campaign.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Minnesota at Cleveland
The Vikings open the Brett Favre era with a non-conference road contest when they take on the Browns and new coach Eric Mangini, who was Favre’s coach last year with the New York Jets.
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Minnesota won the NFC North last year, going 10-6 SU (6-10 ATS) before being dealt a 26-14 loss to the Eagles as a three-point home underdog in the wild-card playoff round. Tarvaris Jackson started the last four games at QB for the Vikings, who then went out in the offseason and acquired Sage Rosenfels from the Texans. Not impressed by either of them, Minnesota ultimately got Favre to come out of retirement a second time, signing him in August.
Favre completed 65.7 percent of his passes last year for 3,472 yards and got the Jets out to a 9-3 record, but he fell apart with injury issues over the final four games, throwing eight INTs and just two TDs as New York fell out of the playoff picture. He finished with 22 TDs and 22 INTs. Still, Minnesota felt he was an upgrade for the offense, which finished 17th in yards (330.9) and 12th in points (23.7), mostly on the back of superstar RB Adrian Peterson (league-leading 1,760 rushing yards, 10 TDs).
The Vikes’ defense was solid as usual in ’08, allowing an average of 292.4 yards (sixth) and 20.8 points (13th).
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Cleveland finished at the bottom of the AFC North at 4-12 (7-9 ATS), with coach Romeo Crennel getting fired and Mangini – fired after the Jets’ collapse – taking over. The new coach this week finally picked Brady Quinn over Derek Anderson as his starting QB, though both passers had injury issues late last season. Cleveland ended 2008 on a six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS).
The Browns’ offense finished 31st in the league last year at 249.1 ypg and tied for 30th in averaging a paltry 14.5 ppg. The defense was 26th in ypg (356.5) and 16th in ppg (21.9).
These teams have met just once this decade in regular-season play, a 24-12 Minnesota home win as a 4½-point chalk in 2005.
The Vikings have cashed in five of their last seven Week 1 games, but they are on ATS downfalls of 6-14 overall (1-4 last five), 1-4 in September and 3-8 as a favorite, and they are in a 2-6 ATS rut as a road chalk. The Browns are on positive ATS streaks of 4-1-1 as a home pup and 5-2 in September, but they are on a 1-4 ATS skid at home and have failed to cash in their last four Week 1 contests. In fact, Cleveland is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 season openers.
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The over is 6-2 in Minnesota’s last eight roadies, but the under for the Vikes is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-0-1 as a road chalk and 7-3-1 in September. The under has hit in 15 of Cleveland’s last 21 (4-1-1 last six)l, 8-3 at home and 5-1 in season openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Denver at Cincinnati
The overhauled Broncos, who fell apart down the stretch and missed the playoffs last year, hit the road for their season opener against the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium.
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Denver failed to win or cover in its last three games, blowing a three-game lead to the Chargers in the AFC West while finishing 8-8 SU and 4-11-1 ATS, the second-worst spread-covering record in the league. With that came the firing of longtime coach Mike Shanahan and the hiring of 33-year-old Josh McDaniels, a former Patriots assistant. Then, following weeks of turmoil, McDaniels traded Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler to the Bears for Kyle Orton, who last year had 15 starts and threw for 2,972 yards, with 18 TDs and 12 INTs.
Orton, nursing a preseason index-finger injury, is still expected to start for the Broncos, who behind Cutler (4,526 passing yards, 25 TDs, 18 INTs) had the league’s No. 2 offense at 395.8 ypg. Denver wasn’t nearly as proficient at scoring, finishing 16th at 23.1 ppg, and the defense allowed a porous 374.6 ypg (29th) and 28.0 ppg (30th). The Broncos also finished a league-worst 32nd in turnover margin, at minus-17.
Cincinnati went 4-11-1 SU (7-9 ATS) in 2008 in another injury riddled year for QB Carson Palmer, who missed the last 12 games with an elbow injury, but the Bengals finished on a 3-0 SU and ATS run. Palmer (731 passing yards, 3 TDs, 4 INTs last year) was coming off a solid season, completing 64.9 percent of his passes in 2007 for a career-best 4,131 yards, with 26 TDs and 20 INTs. Last year, Cincy finished dead last in scoring (12.8 ppg) and total offense (245.4 ypg).
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The Bengals were more respectable on the other side of the ball, finishing 12th in total defense (325.5 ypg) and 14th in scoring defense (22.8 ppg).
Denver is 3-2 SU in the last five meetings in this rivalry, but Cincinnati – as an underdog in all five games – cashed in four of them, most recently in a 24-23 road loss getting three points in 2006.
The Broncos have been one of the worst teams at the betting window the past few years, going 14-34 ATS in Shanahan’s last 48 games, and they are on additional pointspread downturns of 1-6-1 in September, 7-21-1 against the AFC and 6-14 on the highway. The Bengals, meanwhile, are in pointspread ruts of 2-7 as a favorite and 3-9 in conference play, but they also carry positive ATS streaks of 4-1 at home and 9-4 in September.
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The over for Denver is on tears of 24-11-2 overall, 7-0 in September, 10-3-2 with the Broncos as a ‘dog and 10-4-1 on the road. On the flip side, the under for Cincinnati is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 8-2-1 at home and 4-0 as a chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
Philadelphia at Carolina
Two NFC playoff teams from last year get together when the Eagles take flight to Charlotte for a clash with the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
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Philadelphia went 9-6-1 SU (10-6 ATS) in the regular season last year to earn a wild-card bid, then reached the NFC title game before falling short to Arizona 32-25 as a 3½-point road chalk. QB Donovan McNabb had one of his best years, completing 60.4 percent of his passes for a career-high 3,916 yards, with 23 TDs and 11 INTs in the regular season, and he added 892 yards in three playoff games (5 TDs, 4 INTs).
The Eagles were sixth in scoring (26.0 ppg) and ninth in total yards (350.5) in 2008, and they also fielded the league’s third-best defense (274.3 ypg) and were fourth in points allowed (18.1).
Carolina won the NFC South, going 12-4 SU (9-5-2 ATS), tying the Giants for the conference’s best regular-season mark to get a first-round playoff bye. But like the Eagles, the Panthers’ season ended at the hands of the Cardinals in a 33-13 blowout as an overwhelming 10-point home favorite in the divisional round.
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QB Jake Delhomme (3,288 yards, 15 TDs, 12 INTs) had a fair year for a squad that finished 10th in scoring (25.9 ppg) and 10th in total yards (349.7 ypg), but Carolina’s running game was the key, finishing third at 152.3 ypg. RB DeAngelo Williams rushed for 1,515 yards (third) and a league-high 18 TDs. The Panthers’ defense was merely average, yielding 331.2 ypg (18th) and 20.6 ppg (12th).
These two teams have met four times this decade in games that count, with Philly going 3-1 SU and ATS, most recently winning 27-24 as a three-point home pup in 2006. The SU winner cashed in all four games, and the underdog went 3-1 ATS.
The Eagles finished last year on a 6-2 SU and ATS run, including 4-1 SU and ATS to secure the playoff bid, and they are on further pointspread streaks of 8-3 against the NFC and 12-5 on the road. The Panthers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, but they are on a 1-4 ATS skid as an underdog.
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The under for Philadelphia is on rolls of 4-0 in Week 1, 4-1 on the road and 41-17-5 with the Eagles favored, and the under for Carolina is on stretches of 11-2 in Week 1, 12-4 at home, 4-0 as a home ‘dog and 22-8-2 in September. However, the total has gone high in six of Carolina’s last eight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Kansas City at Baltimore
The Ravens, coming off an appearance in the AFC title game, begin their quest to take it a step farther when they take on the Chiefs at M&T Bank Stadium.
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Baltimore went 11-5 SU to finish just behind rival Pittsburgh in the NFC North, securing a wild-card berth, and the Ravens tied for the league’s best pointspread mark at 12-4 ATS. After SU and ATS playoff road wins over Miami and Tennessee, Baltimore earned its third meeting of the season with the Steelers and lost for a third time, 23-14, as a six-point road pup.
QB Joe Flacco had a steady, if not spectacular, rookie season passing for 2,971 yards (14 TDs, 12 INTs), but the Ravens rode the run to offensive success, finishing fourth in the league at 148.5 ypg, with Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee combining for 1,573 yards and 17 TDs. Baltimore also fielded a typically stout defense, finishing second in total yards (261.1) and third in points allowed (15.2).
Kansas City is coming off a dismal 2-14 campaign (8-8 ATS) that led to Herm Edwards’ firing and the hiring of former Patriots front-office guru Scott Pioli as GM and ex-Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley as coach. Pioli made a deal to obtain QB Matt Cassel – who stepped in more than adequately for injured Tom Brady in New England last year – in a quest to begin revamping an offense that finished 24th in ypg (308.7) and 26th in ppg (18.2).
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The Chiefs’ defense was even worse, finishing second-to-last in total yards allowed (393.2) and 29th in points allowed (27.5). And though the games didn’t count, K.C. went 0-4 SU and ATS in the preseason, with Haley firing offensive coordinator Chan Gailey in the process. Cassel (MCL sprain) will be a game-time decision today, and if he can’t go, the start will go to Brodie Croyle (0-7 SU, 3-4 ATS last year as the starter).
Kansas City is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, but Baltimore took the most recent meeting with a 20-10 road win as a three-point pup in 2006. The visitor cashed in all four of those contests.
The Ravens are on a bundle of spread-covering streaks, including 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-1 as a favorite, 8-2 against AFC foes and 13-4 as a non-division home chalk, though they’ve gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven Week 1 tilts. The Chiefs, despite their putrid SU mark last year, are on pointspread upticks of 11-4 on the road (4-1 last five) and 8-0 as a double-digit pup.
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The under for Baltimore is on surges of 5-2 overall, 9-2 in season openers and 4-0 with the Ravens favored, and the under for Kansas City is on rolls of 14-5 on the highway (4-0 last four), 12-3 in September and 4-0 in Week 1.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE and UNDER
Miami at Atlanta
Two surprise playoff teams from last season aim to show their success wasn’t a fluke when the Falcons play host to the Dolphins at the Georgia Dome.
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Atlanta, which was 4-12 SU in 2007, went 11-5 SU (9-6-1 ATS) last year to earn a wild card, taking second in the NFC South behind Carolina. QB Matt Ryan’s won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, but his year ended in the playoff opener, with the Falcons falling 30-24 to Arizona as a 1½-point road underdog. Ryan (61.1 completion percentage, 3,440 yards, 16 TDs, 11 INTs) and RB Michael Turner (1,699 yards, 17 TDs, 4.5 ypc) led an offense that finished sixth in total yards (361.2) and 10th in points (24.4) in coach Mike Smith’s first year.
Atlanta finished 24th in total defense (348.2 ypg) but 11th in scoring defense (20.3 ppg).
Miami went from a dismal 1-15 SU in 2007 to AFC East champs at 11-5 (8-8 ATS) in coach Tony Sparano’s first season, going 9-1 SU (5-5 ATS) to finish the regular season. However, like Atlanta, the Dolphins’ postseason was short-lived as they lost to visiting Baltimore 27-9 getting 3½ points in the wild-card round. QB Chad Pennington had a great first year in South Beach, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,653 yards, with 19 TDs against just seven INTs, as Miami averaged 345.6 ypg (12th) and 21.6 ppg (21st).
Defensively, the Dolphins allowed 329 ypg (15th) and finished ninth in points allowed (19.8 ppg).
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These teams have met twice in the regular season this decade, with both notching a win and Atlanta going 1-0-1 ATS, having posted a 17-10 road victory in 2005 as a two-point favorite.
The Falcons have cashed in nine of their last 11 season openers, and they are on further ATS rolls of 13-5 in non-conference affairs and 6-3 at home, but they failed to cover in four of their last five to end the year. The Dolphins are on ATS runs of 6-1 on the highway, 6-2 as a pup and 5-0 as a road pup, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 1-4-1 in Week 1, 0-3-1 in road openers, 1-7-2 in September and 1-6-1 against the NFC.
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The over is 9-3 in Atlanta’s last 12 at home and 5-1 in Miami’s last six September starts, but the under is on stretches of 4-1 in Week 1 for Atlanta, 9-4 with the Falcons favored, 5-1 overall for Miami and 4-1 for the Dolphins on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
St. Louis at Seattle
A battle of NFC West rivals, both coming off poor seasons, takes place at Qwest Field when the Seahawks open the Jim Mora era against the Rams and new coach Steve Spagnuolo.
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Seattle, without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck (back, knee) for nine games, went 4-12 SU (7-8-1 ATS) and needed to win two of their last three just to do that after losing six in a row in the middle of the campaign. Hasselbeck struggled when he did play, completing just 52.2 percent of his passes for 1,216 yards, with 5 TDs offset by 10 INTs, and the Seahawks’ offense averaged just 274.1 ypg (28th) and 18.4 ppg (25th). Hasselbeck is back and healthy for 2009.
With Seattle’s offense lacking, the defense took a beating in ’08, giving up 378 ypg (30th) and 24.5 ppg (25th), and the Seahawks finished minus-7 in turnover differential.
The Rams fared even worse last year, going 2-14 SU (6-10 ATS), dropping their last 10 in a row (4-6 ATS). QB Marc Bulger started 15 games but put up paltry numbers, throwing for just 2,720 yards, with 11 TDs and 13 INTs, and star RB Steven Jackson missed four games, though he still had 1,042 rushing yards (4.1 ypc) and seven TDs. The Rams were 27th in ypg (287.2) and tied for 30th in ppg (14.5).
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Defensively, only Detroit gave up more points than St. Louis, which surrendered 29.5 ppg and 371.9 ypg (28th).
Seattle has claimed eight in a row in this rivalry (6-2 ATS), winning and cashing in both matchups last season. In September, the Seahawks rolled 37-13 as a nine-point home chalk, and they eked out a 23-20 road win in December laying one point. Seattle has covered the last four from the favorite’s role against St. Louis.
Mora was with Seattle last year as the coach-in-waiting under Mike Holmgren, while St. Louis fired Scott Linehan early last season and in January hired Spagnuolo, who had been the Giants’ defensive coordinator.
The Seahawks are on ATS surges of 9-4-1 at home, 8-3 in division play and 7-2 as a chalk, but they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 season openers. The Rams, meanwhile, are on nothing but negative pointspread streaks, including 6-13 overall, 4-10 against the NFC, 6-20-1 in September, 1-7 in the division and 1-7-1 in Week 1.
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The over hit in both games last year between these two, and the over for Seattle is on runs of 5-1-1 inside the division and 5-1-1 with the Seahawks a home favorite. However, the under is 6-2-1 in Seattle’s last nine overall and 4-1 in its last five at Qwest, and the under for St. Louis is on rolls of 4-1-1 overall, 7-1 in Week 1 and 8-3 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Washington at N.Y. Giants
The Giants, who bowed out of the playoffs early last year following their stunning Super Bowl victory to cap 2007, open the 2009 campaign for the second year in a row at home and against the NFC East rival Redskins in East Rutherford, N.J.
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Following its Super Bowl upset of the Patriots, New York got out to an 11-1 SU start (10-2 ATS) last year before losing three of its last four, though it still won the division at 12-4 SU and tied for the league’s best ATS mark, also 12-4. The top-seeded Giants got a first-round bye, then fell flat to Philadelphia 23-11 as a four-point home chalk in the divisional round.
QB Eli Manning, without key threat Plaxico Burress later in the year, finished with 3,238 passing yards and had 21 TDs and just 10 picks. He was boosted by the league’s best running attack (157.4 ypg, 5.0 ypc), with Brandon Jacobs (1,089 yards, 15 TDs, 5.0 ypc) and Derrick Ward (1,025 yards, 5.6 ypc) both cracking 1,000 yards, though Ward has moved on to the Buccaneers. New York finished tied for third in scoring (26.7 ppg) and seventh in total offense (355.9 ypg), to go with fifth in total defense (292.0) and fifth in scoring defense (18.4 ppg).
Washington jumped out of the gate with a 6-2 SU start (5-3 ATS), then went 2-6 SU (1-5-2 ATS) in the second half to finish out of the playoffs at 8-8 (6-8-2 ATS). QB Jason Campbell (3,245 yards passing, 13 TDs, 6 INTs) had a mediocre year as the ‘Skins relied on RB Clinton Portis (1,487 yards, 9 TDs, 4.3 ypc) for an offense that netted 320 ypg (19th) and just 16.6 ppg (28th).
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Washington’s defense was its strength a season ago, finishing fourth in total yards (288.8 ypg) and sixth in points allowed (18.5 ppg).
The Giants are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six clashes in this rivalry, winning and covering both meetings last year, with a 16-7 season-opening victory as a 4½-point home favorite and a 23-7 November road win laying 3½. The chalk is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, and New York has covered four of the last five at home. However, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five battles.
The Giants carry nothing but positive ATS trends, including 20-6 overall, 4-1 in September, 6-2 giving points and 37-16-2 against NFC opponents. The Redskins, meanwhile, are on a 5-1 ATS roll as a division road ‘dog, but they are in pointspread ruts of 1-5-2 overall and 2-7-2 in Week 1.
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In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in the last four meetings overall and five of the last six. In addition, the under for New York is on upticks of 5-1 overall and 4-0 in division play, and the under for Washington is on tears of 10-1-1 overall, 6-0 in season openers, 4-0 in the NFC East and 11-4-1 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and UNDER
San Francisco at Arizona
The defending NFC champion Cardinals open 2009 with a division contest against the 49ers at University of Phoenix Stadium.
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Arizona went just 9-7 SU and ATS last season, but that was enough to win a weak NFC West, and the Cardinals got hot from there, going 3-0 SU and ATS with wins over Atlanta (home), Carolina (road) and Philadelphia (home) in the NFC title game to reach its first-ever Super Bowl. Arizona gave Pittsburgh all it could handle in the championship contest, losing 27-23 but cashing as a 6½-point pup.
QB Kurt Warner had a huge regular season (67.1 completion percentage, 4,583 yards, 30 TDs, 14 INTs) and was equally solid in the four-game playoff run (68.1 completion percentage, 1,147 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INTs). Arizona tied for the third-best scoring attack (26.7 ppg) and averaged 365.8 ypg (fourth). Defensively, the Cards allowed 26.6 ppg (28th) and 331.5 ypg (19th).
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San Francisco won four of its last five (3-1-1 ATS) to finish 7-9 SU (7-8-1 ATS), with coach Mike Nolan fired in midseason and replaced by Mike Singletary. QB Shaun Hill started the last eight games and passed for 2,046 yards with 13 TDs and eight INTs, and RB Frank Gore had 1,036 yards and six TDs for an offense that finished 23rd in total yards (311.1) and 22nd in ppg (21.2). The Niners’ defense yielded 326 ypg (13th) and 23.8 ppg (23rd).
Arizona won both meetings last year in this rivalry, splitting the cash after failing to cover in a 29-24 home victory as a 9½-point home chalk on a Monday night in mid-November. In fact, the road team is on a 7-0 ATS tear, and the 49ers are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to the desert. The underdog has cashed in five of the last six contests.
The Cards are on positive ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 in division play and 9-2 as a favorite. The 49ers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight outings and are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a pup, but they’ve gone just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games against NFC foes.
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The over for Arizona is on hot streaks of 36-16 overall, 21-7 at home and 42-19 in conference action, and the over for San Francisco is on runs of 5-1 against NFC foes and 4-1 in division play. Finally, the over has been the play in eight of the last 11 clashes overall in this rivalry, including five in a row at Arizona.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Chicago at Green Bay
The Bears, having finally acquired a legitimate franchise quarterback in Jay Cutler, hit the highway for an NFC North clash with the rival Packers at Lambeau Field.
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Chicago needed three wins in its final four games – including two in overtime -- just to finish above .500 last year at 9-7 SU (6-8-2 ATS). Cutler takes over for Kyle Orton, sent to Denver as part of the trade, and the Bears’ new QB finished third in passing last year with 4,526 yards with 25 TDs and 18 INTs. Cutler has an outstanding RB Matt Forte, who rushed for 1,238 yards (seventh) and eight TDs as a rookie.
The Bears averaged 295.9 ypg (26th) and scored 23.4 ppg (tied for 14th) on offense, while giving up 334.7 ypg (21st) and 21.9 ppg (tied for 16th).
Green Bay finished 2008 on a 1-5 SU and ATS slide, going 6-10 SU (8-8 ATS) in its first year without Brett Favre. However, QB Aaron Rodgers made big strides in his first season as a starter, passing for 4,038 yards with 28 TDs against 13 INTs, and RB Ryan Grant rushed for 1,203 yards despite missing two games. The Pack finished fifth in scoring (26.2 ppg) and eighth in total yards (351.1 ypg). Defensively, Green Bay was 20th in yards allowed (334.3) and 22nd in points surrendered (23.8).
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Green Bay cashed in both clashes last year in this rivalry (1-1 SU), routing Chicago 37-3 at home as a 3½-point chalk in November, then losing 20-17 in overtime in December as a four-point road ‘dog. The Packers are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings, but the visitor is on a 13-6-1 ATS run, and the underdog has covered in four of the last five matchups.
The Bears carry a bundle of negative ATS trends, including 2-6-1 overall, 2-6-1 in September, 0-4 in the NFC North, 0-4 getting points and 1-4 on the road. And along with their current 1-5 ATS slide, the Packers are in pointspread ruts of 0-4 as a favorite and 2-5 at home, but they’ve gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine September starts and 6-1 ATS in their last seven division games.
The under for Chicago is on rolls of 5-0 in Week 1 and 7-2 on the highway, but the over is 28-12-1 in the Bears’ last 41 conference contests. The over for Green Bay is on stretches of 19-7-1 overall, 6-1 in September, 13-3 as a chalk, 7-2 in division play and 10-3 at Lambeau.
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Finally, both of last year’s contests went under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
HENTAI SPORTS
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New York Jets at Houston Texans
Prediction : Houston Texans -4
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New York Jets’ starter Mark Sanchez will struggle in his first regular season start of his career. Not only is it his first start, but it comes on the road against a hungry Houston Texans’ fan base so expect it to be very hostile. To make matters worse on Sanchez, his defense is missing several key players. DE Shaun Ellis and LB Calvin Pace are both missing this game Sunday due to suspension. The Jets’ defense was awful in the preseason, giving up 23 or more points in every game. They’ll have their hands full against a Houston offense that put up 25.7 points/game at home last season, going 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS in front of their home fans. Matt Schaub is back at the helm, and this Texans’ offense is one of the most potent in the league with Schaub under center and healthy.
King Creole
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Detroit at New Orleans
Play Under 49
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Thinking of going OVER in a Week 1 DOME game? Think AGAIN!
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I created a 'set' in our NFL database for the 6 teams that play their home games in an indoor environment (Minn, Det, Atl, Stl, Norl, Indy). It's a good idea to visit this set every week to see what the OU patterns and tendencies are in certain situations. Here's your results as we kick off the season: WEEK ONE games played in a DOME have gone 7-17 O/U since the 1999 season... and on a recent note, 2-10 O/U in the last 4 years. If we eliminate the DIVISION games from the mix, the numbers improve to 1-8 O/U in the last 4 years. With 3 indoor games on the week one schedule, do we go UNDER in all 3 of them? Again, I'll leave that up to you. But we CERTAINLY don't want to play the OVER in ANY of 'em. This week's 'Home DOMERS' are: LIONS @ SAINTS... JAGUARS @ COLTS... and DOLPHINS @ FALCONS.
DAVE COKIN
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES / CAROLINA PANTHERS
TAKE: CAROLINA PANTHERS
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The Carolina Panthers were unimpressive in the pre-season and that seems to be somewhat reflected as the number on this game has moved thanks to loads of action on the Eagles. But I think it's important to note that Panthers HC John Fox made a point prior to the start of the pre-season that he would not be pushing his team as hard as in the past in order to have the team as fresh as possible for the grueling regular season campaign. I don't see the Panthers as a powerhouse this year, but they're still a very capable squad and I like the idea of backing them as home dogs today. Carolina plus the points is the Sunday free play.
JIM FEIST
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DENVER BRONCOS / CINCINNATI BENGALS
TAKE: CINCINNATI BENGALS
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After this game, will these teams combine to go 0-30? Neither team looks very good. Denver looked awful in preseason while learning new schemes under coach Josh McDaniels. He helped run Jay Cutler out of town, then suspended star WR Brandon Marshall. He certainly is laying down the law, but at some point a coach needs to have some talent on the field to compete and the Broncos look empty. QB Kyle Orton had 1 TD and 4 picks in preseason. Orton dislocated his finger and Chris Simms has a sprained ankle, so all that is left is rookie QB Tom Brandstater. McDaniels said there is a possibility that Orton and/or Simms could both miss the first regular season game. The defense has been awful the last two years, especially against the run, and they looked just as bad in preseason. They are 1-4 ATS the last 5 against Cincinnati. Bengals QB Carson Palmer missed much of the preseason with a right ankle injury, but he says he's ready to roll. They have struggled with the run of late and the secondary has its fill of question marks. One major improvement this season is the depth on this team. They have some talent and depth at running back. Plus Chad Ochocinco is ready to show he hasn't lost the spark he had a few seasons ago. Big edge on offense here to the Bengals who have the QB, the WR's and some talent at RB. Denver, well they are just a mess and it won't get any better now that the regular season has started.
Randall the Handle
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CAROLINA +1.26 over Philadelphia
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The anticipation of the football season is at its highest point ever, as the NFL has done a masterful job marketing its product and thus, the fan-base and interest is absolutely incredible. The reason for mentioning this is because the hype on the Eagles is high too because of its signing of Michael Vick. In fact, the Eagles have been front-page sports news almost daily since June and it wasn’t just in Pennsylvania either. All over the country and on all sports-radio talk, all we’ve heard is Eagles, Eagles and more Eagles and the result of all this is a line that is 100% inflated. Are the Eagles any better than last year’s team? I think not. They’re counting on a few rookies on offense, they lost Brian Dawkins and Lito Sheppard on defense and they also lost its defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, who passed away this off-season after a long bout with cancer. The Eagles are on the road and playing a team that went 8-0 at home last season and that returns 21 of 22 starters. It’s also worth mentioning that the Panthers averaged 30 points a game at home while allowing just 13 a game. Finally, this game opened with Philly being a 1-point choice and the money has not stopped on the Eagles. It’s already up to –2½ and it’ll very likely be –3 by game time. That is a huge red flag and even if you can’t pull the trigger on the Panthers, I’m urging you to lay off the favorite because there are too many danger signs in betting the Eagles. This is an older team that really was not impressive in the preseason and all the hype on them is just that, hype and nothing else. Play: Carolina +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +6½ over ARIZONA
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Most places have this line at –6 and I would not hesitate for a moment to take that but we see a +6½ at SIA and there’s nothing wrong with shopping for the best price. Not only can the 49ers cover this spread they can easily win this one outright, as the Cards are a very mediocre squad that got hot at the right time last season. Kurt Warner also got hot but let’s not forget that this is a 38-yr-old QB that looked awful in the preseason and it’s hard to ignore the fact that he “lost it” after a good run while with the Rams a few years ago and now you can add about 10 years to that. No chance does this guy repeat last year’s numbers. This is not the same Cardinals team as last year, as they lost both its offensive and defensive coordinators and that means changes everywhere for a team in danger of suffering a major hangover. Meanwhile, Mike Singletary is a no-nonsense guy that has the 49ers moving in the right direction. He played for some great teams and knows what it takes and is instilling that in each and every player. They responded by going 5-2 in the final seven games a year ago and that includes a Monday night game in Arizona in what was one of the more bizarre losses in recent memory. Fact is, they should’ve closed the season 6-1. 49ers are not a great team but they’re better than last year, they’ll be very well prepped and they’ll be playing a team that went 0-4 in the preseason. That could mean nothing but losing all its preseason games cannot be a positive thing for the psyche. These Cardinals have been one of the worst favorites to bet on over the years and this one likely won’t be any different. Play: San Francisco +6½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
INDIANAPOLIS –7 over Jacksonville
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We’ve heard a ton this off-season about New England, Philly, Minnesota, the Packers and Bears and not much ado has been made about the Colts. In fact, for the first time in a while, the Colts are actually flying a little under the radar and that’s a pretty sweet place to be for them. Peyton Manning started last year underweight and a very rusty but this year he comes in healthy and hungry and a determined and focused Manning is the most dangerous QB in the business, bar none. The Colts are loaded on offense and if Joseph Addai can run get some room and open up the running game, look out. As for the Jags, well, this team was a complete dumpster-fire in the second half and they’ve made a ton of changes and that includes letting go every receiver (Reggie Williams, Jerry Porter, Matt Jones and Dennis Northcutt) they had. They have one experienced receiver, aging Torry Holt, and they also departed ways with RB Fred Taylor. That leaves Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield, an average QB in David Garrard, a slew of unproven receivers and a defense minus Mike Peterson, not to mention a new defensive coordinator. This Jags team is under heavy construction and frankly I don’t like what I see. Expect the Colts to be sharp offensively, jacked up and raring to go against what should be a very beatable and ripe opponent. Play Indianapolis –7 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Other games
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Washington +6½ over NY GIANTS
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The total is low, the Skins defense is greatly improved and these seem like a lot of points to be spotting them this early in the year. The Giants have lost some key players and that includes one half of the bruising RB tandem, as Derrick Ward is no longer a Giant. Steve Spagnuolo, the highly regarded defensive coordinator is also gone and so is the rifle of Plaxico Burress. The Skins need more offense to be sure but this team started strong a year ago before fading in the second half and in what should be a very low-scoring game, the points are too generous to pass up on. Play: Washington +6½ (No bets).
CLEVELAND +4 over Minnesota
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Very tempting to pull the trigger on the Brownies here, as the whole world is on the Vikes and that’s never a good sign. Brett Favre cannot be trusted and while they might be able to hand the ball to Adrian Peterson all day and still cover, this one really smells like a rat to me. Cleveland was supposed to be last year’s sleeper or Cinderella if you will but a torturous season has them out of the spotlight this year. They’re not in that bad shape and with a new coaching staff and a potentially great QB in Brady Quinn these Brownies could be live this season. A lot more pressure on Childress and the Vikles to perform and historically this is a team that does not perform well when expected to win big. Play: Cleveland +4 (No bets).
Tony Mathews
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers
Selection: Philadelphia/Carolina Over 43
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The Philadelphia Eagles's defense in recent years has had trouble stopping the run and we don't see that changing this year. The Carolina Panthers will be able to put together consistent drives and get the ball in the end zone.
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The Philadelphia Eagles have added a couple weapons to their offense and we believe they will show them off. We expect QB McNabb to have a big day dumping the ball off to Westbrook and using Maclin and Jackson down field.
To say the least, this game has shootout written all over it!
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Take the Philadelphia Eagles/Carolina Panthers Over 43
Joe Squarelli
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Minnesota (-4) at Cleveland
Brett Favre’s Minnesota adventure begins on Sunday, and he gets an easy start vs. the lame Browns. Minnesota should ride Adrian Peterson more than Favre this weekend considering the Browns were horrible against the run last season. That should continue this weekend, and Peterson should rack up 100+ yards and a couple TDs. It doesn’t matter who the Browns start at QB, Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn, Cleveland won’t put up much of a fight. The Browns are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 openers and that trend should continue. Take the Vikings -4.
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Buffalo at New England (-10.5)
Tom Brady’s back, and that’s good news for bettors even if you’re not a Patriots fan. The Pats start the season against the Bills, who they’ve owned for years. New England has won 11 straight against the Bills while going 9-2 ATS. New England’s offense is ready to roll again, and the Bills’ offense has been looking so bad they ditched their offensive coordinator in the preseason. This one could be a blowout. Take New England -10.5.
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San Diego (-9) at Oakland
I’ve been making money on the Chargers beating the Raiders for years, and this season shouldn’t prove to be any different. San Diego has won 11 straight over the Raiders, and they covered the spread in 10 of those games. In their last five trips to Oakland the Chargers have outscored the Raiders 135-66. Unless JaMarcus Russell suddenly learned to read defenses in the offseason that will continue Monday night. Take San Diego -9.
DUNKEL
Toronto at Detroit
The Blue Jays look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 0-5 in its last 5 games as a favorite. Toronto is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+155)
Game 951-952: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Maine) 14.018; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.061
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-175); Over
Game 953-954: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Redding) 13.877; Philadelphia (Martinez) 14.213
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-230); Over
Game 955-956: Washington at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 14.901; Florida (Volstad) 14.551
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+155); Under
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 13.747; Houston (Paulino) 13.621
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+145); Under
Game 959-960: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 15.570; St. Louis (Carpenter) 17.568
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Over
Game 961-962: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.288; Cubs (Lilly) 14.973
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-215); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+195); N/A
Game 963-964: Colorado at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Marquis) 16.448; San Diego (Richard) 15.853
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Over
Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.440; San Francisco (Penny) 15.577
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-110); Over
Game 967-968: Milwaukee at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 14.650; Arizona (Scherzer) 14.844
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 969-970: Kansas City at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 15.832; Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.712
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105); Over
Game 971-972: Baltimore at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.451; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.365
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-310); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-310); Under
Game 973-974: Toronto at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.400; Detroit (Porcello) 14.233
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+155); Over
Game 975-976: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.539; Boston (Buchholz) 15.281
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+135); Under
Game 977-978: Oakland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.805; Minnesota (Duensing) 15.940
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-180); Over
Game 979-980: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Fister) 16.307; Texas (Hunter) 15.209
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+160); Under
Game 981-982: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.988; Boston (Lester) 15.872
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-205); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-205); Over
Game 983-984: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.556; Texas (Holland) 14.978
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-140); Under
NFL
Miami at Atlanta
The Falcons look to take advantage of a Miami team that is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 September games. Atlanta is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4).
Game 453-454: Miami at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.346; Atlanta 134.249
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6; 45
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 43
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Over
Game 455-456: Kansas City at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.024; Baltimore 134.133
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 9; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9); Under
Game 457-458: Philadelphia at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 141.749; Carolina 144.653
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 46
Vegas Line: Carolina by 1; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-1); Over
Game 459-460: Denver at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.598; Cincinnati 124.924
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3); Over
Game 461-462: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 136.080; Cleveland 128.895
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 7; 36 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-3); Under
Game 463-464: NY Jets at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 128.730; Houston 138.240
Dunkel Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 4; 43
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Under
Game 465-466: Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 128.039; Indianapolis 139.395
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 11 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-6 1/2); Over
Game 467-468: Detroit at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 123.925; New Orleans 133.469
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 12 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+12 1/2); Under
Game 469-470: Dallas at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.674; Tampa Bay 128.129
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 8 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Under
Game 471-472: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 129.708; Arizona 139.069
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-6 1/2); Over
Game 473-474: Washington at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 130.475; NY Giants 140.912
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 6; 38
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-6); Over
Game 475-476: St. Louis at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 124.293; Seattle 130.343
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 6; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+7); Under
Game 477-478: Chicago at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.555; Green Bay 131.413
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Under
WNBA
Minnesota at Sacramento
The Lynx look to take advantage of a Sacramento team that is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games against teams with a losing SU record. Minnesota is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Monarchs favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4 1/2)
Game 651-652: Los Angeles at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 113.183; Phoenix 116.703
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 177 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 175
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+4 1/2); Over
Game 653-654: Indiana at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 110.517; Connecticut 107.824
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2 1/2; 136 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 655-656: Washington at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 107.631; New York 112.191
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 4 1/2; 135 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 657-658: Minnesota at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 109.240; Sacramento 112.393
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 160 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 4 1/2; 165 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4 1/2); Under
CFL
BC at Montreal
The Alouettes look to bounce back from their defeat at BC last week and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Montreal is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-10).
Game 447-448: BC at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: BC 109.602; Montreal 121.649
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 12; 56
Vegas Line: Montreal by 10; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-10); Over
Game 449-450: Saskatchewan at Winnipeg
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 108.679; Winnipeg 111.150
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 2 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 1; 51
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+1); Under