Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 14

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

NY Yankees at Baltimore
The Orioles look to bounce back from yesterday's 3-2 loss to the Yankees and come into tonight's contest with an 8-0 record in Chris Tillman's last 8 home starts when the total is set a 7 to 8 1/2 runs. Baltimore is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-145)

Game 951-952: Washington at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 16.126; NY Mets (Niese) 14.660
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Over

Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Turner) 15.283; Pittsburgh (Volquez) 14.399
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-220); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+185); Under

Game 955-956: Miami at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 13.320; Philadelphia (Buchanan) 14.886
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Under

Game 957-958: Cincinnati at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 16.409; Milwaukee (Garza) 14.976
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+145); Over

Game 959-960: Colorado at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Lyles) 15.677; St. Louis (Gonzales) 14.561
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+160); Under

Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 17.908; San Francisco (Petit) 16.313
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 6
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-180); Over

Game 963-964: San Diego at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Despaigne) 14.781; Arizona (Cahill) 16.229
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-125); Over

Game 965-966: Cleveland at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Bauer) 16.774; Detroit (Verlander) 15.692
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130); Under

Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.413; Toronto (Buehrle) 15.566
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+110); Over

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Baltimore (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.390; Baltimore (Tillman) 16.887
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-145); Under

Game 971-972: Boston at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Kelly) 14.473; Kansas City (Vargas) 15.879
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-175); Under

Game 973-974: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (May) 14.548; White Sox (Noesi) 13.512
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+115); Over

Game 975-976: Houston at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 15.887; LA Angels (Santiago) 14.769
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+165); Under

Game 977-978: Oakland at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Lester) 17.312; Seattle (Young) 15.886
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-150); Over

Game 979-980: Atlanta at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 14.398; Texas (Lewis) 15.444
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+135); Under

CFL

Saskatchewan at Hamilton
The Roughriders head to Hamilton today to face a Tiger-Cats team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games. Saskatchewan is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+1 1/2)

Game 297-298: Saskatchewan at Hamilton (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 116.671; Hamilton 111.673
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 5; 51
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 1 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+1 1/2); Over

Randall the Handle

Best Bets for Week 2

Cardinals (1-0) at Giants (0-1)

Yes, it’s early, but that doesn’t change the mental makeup of a team. So when the Arizona Cardinals have to exert a lot of energy to come from behind for a late Monday-night win, then fly to the east coast on a short week, it is a daunting task no matter what part of the schedule it occurs. Granted, the Giants seemed unprepared and overwhelmed for all to see in their Monday-night opener, dropping a one-sided affair to the Lions. But that may help us here as the knee-jerk reaction to both results has elevated the Cardinals to chalk here. Therein lies the value. Arizona has lost a number of key defensive players from last year’s club with LB John Abraham the latest to be sidelined. The Giants are working through a new offence, but Eli and Co. are experienced enough to take on this unsuspecting visitor. Yes, Arizona is likely the stronger club over the course of this season, but having to win by more than a field goal under the conditions mentioned is not the prudent play. TAKING: GIANTS +3

Patriots (0-1) at Vikings (1-0)

Maybe folks are a little too revved up by the Vikings’ dismantling of the clawless Rams. However, when you look at Minnesota’s personnel and the instant love that the players have for their new coach, the Vikes just might be legit. Minnesota is not void of good players. Tops, of course, is RB Adrian Peterson. His presence is invaluable as the attention AP draws allows for the offence to free up others. Even more promising is that New England gave up 191 rushing yards in its opener, including 134 yards and a TD to Knowshon Moreno. Much ado will be made this week about New England’s infrequency of consecutive losses. We’re not concerned. The Patriots have not been great on the road and have failed to cover in their past five as road favourites. They also gave up 23 unanswered second-half points to the Dolphins in last Sunday’s loss. New England’s instability on its offensive line was clearly an issue last week and Mike Zimmer’s defensive pedigree will make it equally tough on his guests. TAKING: VIKINGS +3

Falcons (1-0) at Bengals (1-0)

Sure, the Falcons were impressive in their opening-game upset of the favoured Saints. But hosting a divisional rival inside the Georgia Dome is a lot different than heading off to play an outdoor game at Paul Brown Stadium against these Bengals. Oddly, Cincinnati is rarely mentioned when it comes to strong home-field advantage. Let us remind you that the Bengals were a perfect 8-0 on this field last year. They outscored their opponents by a whopping 275-134. Cincy scored 34 or more in its final five games here last season, four of them in the 40s. Not only do they have the ability to score points, the Bengals are one of the stronger defensive units in the league. Five of last year’s visitors were held to 17 or less. Meanwhile, Atlanta did not win an outdoor game last year, losing six of six. While Atlanta has some stars on offence, they’re mainly in the passing game, and Cincy’s pass defenders are capable of slowing it down. The Falcons still have issues on their O-Line and their best guy, Jake Matthews, may miss this one. TAKING: BENGALS -5

Other picks for Week 2

Lions (1-0) at Panthers (1-0)

Man, these Lions can be good. We saw how this talented roster simply manhandled the Giants in Detroit’s lopsided victory this past Monday night. New head man Jim Caldwell still has to deal with some boneheaded mistakes, but there’s little doubt he can change the culture here. The Panthers are no slouches with their stellar defence, but if the “D” has a weakness, it could be in its secondary after losing a few guys from last year’s squad. That does not bode well when facing the NFL’s best receiver in Calvin Johnson, now with Golden Tate to draw away some coverage. Cam Newton returns, but are his ribs okay? TAKING: LIONS +3

Dolphins (1-0) at Bills (1-0)

Have to be impressed by Miami’s comeback win over the favoured Patriots last week, but this is a horse of a different colour. No matter how good or bad the Bills might be, there is always a mystique when playing at The Ralph. The Dolphins know that all too well and even they may find it odd that they are favoured here, however slight. Miami’s visit last year ended on the wrong side of a 19-0 final. QB Ryan Tannehill became very friendly with Orchard Park turf, having been knocked to it seven times. No reason that similar events won’t happen on this day, while Buffalo’s running game is enough to secure another win. TAKING: BILLS +1

Jaguars (0-1) at Redskins (0-1)

Other than an early-season trip to Oakland last year, the Jaguars were double-digit underdogs in all remaining road games. Heck, they were 7½-point dogs to the Browns and 10½-point pooches to the two-win Texans! Are the Redskins that bad? We don’t think so. Granted, opening day for Washington wasn’t too impressive in a 14-6 loss to Houston, but the ’Skins did outgain their hosts by a 372-316 count. A blocked punt and two fumbles inside their own 10 didn’t help the Redskins, but hosting Jacksonville and its pop-gun offence should rectify some things. Needing just a converted touchdown seems cheap. TAKING: REDSKINS -6

Cowboys (0-1) at Tennessee (1-0)

Had this game been played last week, the Cowboys would have been chalk. But after watching another episode of the 22 Stooges and with the Titans serving up an impressive win, Tennessee has justifiably earned the favourite’s role. That suits us just fine as Dallas is at its best when not expected to win, covering seven of its past 11 when taking road points. Tennessee didn’t have to expose its suspect defence against Kansas City’s inept passing game. Tony Romo might be erratic, but he won’t be throwing into San Fran’s secondary this week. The Titans have covered just three of their past 13 as home faves. TAKING: COWBOYS +3½

Saints (0-1) at Browns (0-1)

Let’s face it, the Saints are just not the same team once they board an airplane. New Orleans has managed just two covers in its past 13 attempts when travelling, while winning just two of its past eight when playing outdoor road games. The Saints were rumoured to have an even stronger defence than the improved unit we saw a year ago, but Matt Ryan and his Falcons ripped New Orleans’ secondary to pieces, throwing for 448 yards in last Sunday’s loss in Atlanta. Cleveland may not have the same offensive weapons as Atlanta, but it overcame a 24-point deficit to Pittsburgh last week. TAKING: BROWNS +6½

Rams (0-1) at Buccaneers (0-1)

Do you want to spot six with the Bucs? We don’t. The Rams don’t thrill us, either, with key players going down like bowling pins. But we still prefer the points being offered with St. Louis’ stellar defensive players to that of a stagnant Tampa Bay offence. Bucs’ QB Josh McCown reverted back to the clipboard-holding backup he was before some weird awakening in Chicago last year. McCown threw for just 183 yards with two interceptions last week in Tampa’s 20-14 loss to the Panthers. With a total of 37 posted for the under/over, points will be at a premium here and that, too, has us leaning to the doggie. TAKING: RAMS +6

Seahawks (1-0) at Chargers (0-1)

How is this fair? The best team in football gets 10 days’ rest before facing a team on six days’ rest? Even though Seattle is being asked to spot a bunch of points here, we think the Seahawks are being undervalued. The Super Bowl champs appear even stronger with a healthy Percy Harvin in the lineup. The Packers were befuddled as Percy drew attention while Marshawn Lynch trampled his opponent in his beast-like manner. Yes, Seattle is nearly infallible at home, but it quietly went 7-2 on the road last year and has covered 11 of its past 13 road games. The Chargers are a decent squad, but still a work in progress, and one that figures to get schooled here. TAKING: SEAHAWKS -6

Texans (1-0) at Raiders (0-1)

The Texans would like to exact revenge on a lowly Raiders team that took them down in Texas last season in the midst of Houston’s 14-game collapse. While Houston snapped that ugly string with an opening-day win over the Redskins, Washington blunders were as responsible as any part in the win. While Oakland will start rookie QB Derek Carr, it won’t hurt that backup Matt Schaub knows the Texans’ defensive schemes well after his seven-year stint in Houston. The Raiders have to win somewhere along the line and this visitor offers that opportunity. Any points offered are considered a bonus. TAKING: RAIDERS +3

Jets (1-0) at Packers (0-1)

Losses in Seattle can be excused as the Seahawks are the current benchmark of success. Even though the Packers appeared somewhat out of sync, we still think they are a much better team than they showed in Seattle. Now they’ll have a chance to prove it against a Jets team that is unlikely to keep pace with Green Bay offensively. The Jets may be able to rush the passer, but they aren’t facing a neophyte such as Derek Carr. This New York bunch also has some serious issues in its secondary. That should allow QB Aaron Rodgers to let loose in a game that the Pack must win to avoid a dreaded 0-2 start. TAKING: PACKERS -8

Chiefs (0-1) at Broncos (1-0)

Not a lot of secrets here as the Chiefs are a far cry from their 9-0 start a year ago. A lackluster 26-10 loss in K.C.’s home opener to the less-than-mighty Titans didn’t boost morale, either. Denver remains among the league’s elite, possessing the ability to blow out teams greater than this rival. However, this is a divisional game with a double-digit pointspread — and those are rarely a walk in the park. Denver won both meetings last year, but by only 10 points here and 7 in Kansas City. It may also aid the Chiefs that Denver heads to Seattle next week for a Super Bowl rematch, a much more important focal point. TAKING: CHIEFS +13

Bears (0-1) at 49ers (1-0)

The Niners will have the pleasure of facing Tony Romo and Jay Cutler in back-to-back weeks. As Yogi Berra would say, “It’s déja vu all over again.” With both quarterbacks having a propensity for making ill-advised throws, endorsing either can be a hazardous proposition, as we saw with Romo last week. Still, we prefer to take our chances with Cutler and his Bears taking a slew of points against a San Francisco defence that is minus some of its defensive stars from a year ago. Chicago has to be smarting after being upset by the Bills last week, and we expect a better effort here. TAKING: BEARS +7

Eagles (1-0) at Colts (0-1)

The Eagles got off to a dubious start, having to rally in the second half to take down the meek Jaguars. In the process, Philadelphia lost two starting offensive linemen, including Pro Bowl guard Evan Mathis. The scramble was on this week to find replacements to protect QB Nick Foles. Not ideal conditions for visiting an Indianapolis squad that has been lights out on its home turf, winning 14 of 17 here under Andrew Luck’s tutelage and failing to cover in only four of those games. Philly did little to address its secondary issues from a year ago — that should suit Indy’s explosive passing game just fine. TAKING:Colts -3

Cajun Sports

Jets / Packers Under 46

Play UNDER on NFL teams who had a rush of at least 70 yards in their last game. The Jets running back Chris Ivory had a run of seventy-one yards in the Jets win over the Oakland Raiders 19 to 14. Ivory ended the game with a total of 102 yards rushing but the key factor for us is the fact he broke loose on a run of 71 yards. This system has a record of 45-63-4 UNDER. We will play the Jets Packers game to fall below the posted total on Sunday.

Wunderdog

Chicago @ San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco -6.5

The Bears remain an overrated team as evidenced by their 4-12 ATS mark since the arrival of Marc Trestman. They can only blame themselves for their disappointing home loss in their opener in overtime 23-20 at the hands of the lowly Buffalo Bills. Defense was an issue a year ago for the Bears. Allowing a limited Bills offense to rack up 360 yards and score 23 points is not going to cut it in this game. The Bears head on the road against a much more competent San Francisco team in a brand new stadium. The Niners opened a 28-3 lead against Dallas last week, coasting to a 28-17 win. I don't think they showed much of the playbook because they didn't have to. The Niners may not have shown much offensively, but they didn't have to, and the Bears defense is suspect. Looking back to last season the Niners posted 32 or more points in half their regular season home games, and should get near that tonight. Under Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers are 36-19 against the number including 28-15 as a favorite. The crowd and home-team players should be sky-high for this game. Back the Niners to expose Chicago further, and win big here.

Bryan Power

Jacksonville vs. Washington
Pick: Washington

I picked the Redskins to have a bounce back season, so a 17-6 Week 1 loss in Houston might lead you to believe that I'd now start to think otherwise. But consider that they not only outgained the Texans (372-316), but they had a correspondng 20-16 edge in first downs. We'll get to the offense in a bit, but I though the defense played pretty well after a rough 2013. They allowed only three points in the entire second half. Lay the points here.

Jacksonville is off not only a tough SU loss, but ATS as well. They blew a 17-0 lead on the road last week vs. Philadelphia and didn't even cover as 10.5-point underdogs! While HC Gus Bradley has this team pointed in the right direction, there are still far too many holes - on both sides of the ball. I think that the "close call" (well, sort of) actually will work against them here. This is a team that hasn't won very much in recent years. Having blown a golden opportunity to start the season 1-0, I see them coming out and struggling this week.

Something will have to give here as Jacksonville has failed to cover seven years in a row in Week 2 while Washington is 0-5 ATS the L5 yrs in Week 2. I think the deciding factor could be home field advantage as this is new head coach Jay Gruden's first "real" game in front of the home fans. First year head coaches, save for Gruden, did pretty well last week going 4-1 ATS.

John Ryan

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are currently installed as 6 point home dogs facing the Seattle Seahawks. This is simply a vastly inflated price and I highly encourage a 5* wager on the Chargers. Seattle is the public bettor favorite, especially doming off their big win over the Packers last Thursday. However, the focus with Seattle maybe returning home to host the Denver Broncos in Week 3. This is by definition a 'middle game' for Seattle and one that they could easily lose. San Diego is an excellent team and should never be home dogs of 6 points based on the opponents they face. Supporting this 5* graded play is a great system that has gone 81-41 ATS for 67% winners since 1983. Play against road teams (SEATTLE) after scoring 30 points or more last game and are now facing an opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game. 41% of these games covered the spread by 7+ points and this under scores by strong belief that this will be an upset result. Take the San Diego Chargers.

John Ryan's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks

I know Seattle isn't as strong on the road as they are at home, but I think the Seahawks have a big schedule advantage in this matchup. Seattle will have had 9 full days to prepare for the Chargers due to playing their opener last Thursday. San Diego on the other hand will have just 5 days to get ready for defending champs. I won't be looking to lay the points on the Seahawks a lot on the road this year, but I think this is one spot where they are actually showing some decent value.

The Seahawks are perceived as a bad road team and it wasn't that long ago that claim was true. However, Seattle went 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS away from home in 2013. It's worth noting that Seattle is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after playing their last game at home.

One of the big reasons that I don't mind laying the points is Seattle's defense matches up very well with San Diego's offense. The Chargers are of a more pass-first team that likes to set up the run with the pass. As you already know, trying to beat Seattle through the air is recipe for disaster. You have to be able to run the ball to move the chains and I just don't think the Chargers will be able to do that. San Diego only managed 52 rushing yards on 24 attempts against Arizona. That's barely over 2.0 yards/carry.

Another key here is that Seattle is a much better offensive team than they get credit for. They have one of the most physical running backs in the game in Marshawn Lynch and an emerging star at quarterback in Russell Wilson. They also have a healthy Percy Harvin at wide receiver and he?s a weapon they didn't have for most of last year. Harvin caught 7 passes for 59 yards and rushed 4 times for 41 yards against Green Bay.

Ross Benjamin

Miami @ Buffalo
Play: Buffalo +1

This is one of these situations where emotion will become a huge factor. The Bills will be playing in their home opener, are coming off an exciting overtime win at Chicago last week as a 6.5-point underdog, and are playing a division rival. That's not all, local businessman Terry Pegula reached a tentative deal pending approval by NFL owners to purchase the team on Tuesday for a reported 1.4 billion dollars, and assured the fan base that the Bills are in Buffalo to stay. Then a little more than a week ago a Bills iconic figure Jim Kelly was pronounced cancer free after battling the disease over the past 6 months. The atmosphere will be electric, the crowd raucous, and the team enters with confidence. Since 10/9/2011 the Bills are 5-0 SU&ATS as a home pick or underdog of 4.0 or less, and their average margin of victory was 12.0 points in those contests.

The Dolphins will be depleted at linebacker with 2-starters sidelined by injury. That's not good news for Miami backers considering they will be facing an opponent that rushed for 193-yards last week, and was #4 overall in rushing offense in 2013. They will also be facing a Bills defense that absolutely dominated them in their 2-meetings last season, and may be even better in 2014.

Any division home pick or underdog of 2.5 or less, that's coming off a non-division straight up win as an away underdog of 11.0 or less, versus an opponent coming off a win, has gone 13-0 SU&ATS since 1992. The home team won those 13-games by an average of 10.2 points per contest.

Art Aronson

Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals -5

The Bengals took care of business in Week 1 against a divisional foe on the road and I think they can once again deliver the goods in Week 2 at home. The visiting Atlanta Falcons (1-0) started off their season on a high point with a thrilling 37-35 overtime win over divisional foe New Orleans. Matt Ryan had one of his best performances of his career, throwing three TDs while completing 31 for 43 passes for 448 yards. Julio Jones was Ryan’s favorite target with nine catches for 116 yards while newcomer Devin Hester was very effective as a pass catcher with 99 yards on five receptions. It was hardly a perfect performance though as the Falcons did give up 472 yards of total offense, making up for it by posting 568 yards of their own. Cincinnati (1-0) gave away a 15 point lead but managed to hold on for a 23-16 win against the Ravens. Andy Dalton went 25 of 38 for 301 yards to help the Bengals end a four-game losing streak in Baltimore. A.J Green caught a 77 yard TD pass to seal the deal in the closing moments. A win is a win is a win and there is no question that Cinncy will take it on the road against the division rival. Note though that the Bengals were lights out at home last year with a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS record during the regular season. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for Atlanta and I think that the book is still out on a team that lost 12 games last season. In fact, the Falcons themselves know they have a long way to go: "It's a good start,” Ryan assessed afterwards. "But it's a long season." The fact that that Atlanta gave up 34 points in its first game has me worried as well; remember, the defense was brutal in allowing 27.7 points last season and early signs show that the unit hasn’t gotten any better. Conversely, Cincinnati was the fifth best scoring defense in the NFL last year, allowing just 19.1 points per game and showed its adroitness on that side of the ball last week. Note that Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS in its last four trips to Cincinnati, all signs point to another tough one today; consider a second look at the BENGALS in this one.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Teddy Covers

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: Seattle Seahawks -5½

The recent history of defending Super Bowl Champions has not been a good one. No team since the New England Patriots following their 2003 Super Bowl title has even won a single playoff game the following season. The last two defending champs – the Giants and Ravens – failed to make the playoffs the year after their title.

But Seattle is a different animal compared to recent Super Bowl champs. Three things make the Seahawks different. First, their coaching staff didn’t get raided this past offseason, as they return both coordinators. The historical norm is that Super Bowl winning teams tend to lose some of their coaching talent in the offseason, but there’s full continuity for the Seahawks on this year’s staff, compared to last year.

Secondly, the Seahawks didn’t get raided in free agency. Again, most defending Super Bowl champs have an immediate problem with their salary cap. Those caps tend to get maxed out with big contracts for superstars. But the Seahawks managed their cap space very efficiently on their build-up to the Super Bowl run. Their quarterback, Russell Wilson, is arguably the single most underpriced commodity in the league right now. As a result, Seattle didn’t have to jettison many contracts this offseason, leaving them with the core of last year’s squad still intact.

Third, this Seahawks team is still very young. When Pete Carroll got the job, he made a commitment to youth right away, and the Seahawks had one of the most inexperienced rosters in the league in his first few years on the job. This isn’t a roster filled with ‘fat and happy’ veterans who have just accomplished their career goal. Rather, it’s a roster filled with younger guys looking to build a dynasty – exactly the type of dynasty that Carroll built at USC once that team started to win titles.

For all the concerns about the Seahawks being particularly vulnerable to the refs new ‘point of emphasis’ about defensive contact, Seattle was flagged for only one defensive penalty against the Packers elite passing game in their opener. But the really scary thing for opposing teams is that Seattle’s offense has improved by leaps and bounds compared to where it was last year. Percy Harvin is healthy. Marshawn Lynch is fresh. Russell Wilson’s confidence is sky high. Last year’s banged up offensive line has transformed into a relatively healthy unit in 2014. The 36 points that Seattle hung on the Packers was not an aberration. In fact, I expect it to be a harbinger of things to come.

While the Seahawks played last Thursday in the season opener, San Diego played in the late game on Monday Night. That gives Seattle a huge edge in both recovery time and preparation time. And while the Chargers fourth quarter collapse at Arizona leaves them hungry for a ‘statement’ win, I’m not convinced they’ll be good enough to get one, particularly with starting center Nick Hardwick now on IR after a season ending injury on Monday Night.

Dave Price

Green Bay Packers -8

Motivated by an ugly loss in their opener and having had three extra days to prepare, the Packers will bounce back strong Sunday against the Jets. New York was able to defeat Oakland in its opener, but it takes a big step up in competition here. And, the Jets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. Green Bay is on a 20-8 ATS run versus teams with winning records, and it is 18-8 ATS under coach McCarthy as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14.0 points. It has won by an average score of 32.6 to 15.6 in these 26 games. With a pair of division road games on deck, the Packers know how important it is to take care of business here.

Ray Monohan

New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: New England Patriots -5

New England lost in week 1 and it wasn’t pretty in the second half as they got shutout and frittered the game away. This week they hit the road again, up to Minnesota, to face a Vikings team that is not nearly as good as their win over St. Louis made them look. I am expecting the combo of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to be in full avengers mode. The number is coming down on this one and I can’t understand why unless people are setting up for a big play. Is New England really going to start 0-2.

Brandon Shively

Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -6.5

You won't find me laying more than a field goal often in the NFL, but this Sunday night I feel the 49ers have a big advantage, and I am calling for a B-L-O-W-O-U-T For beginners, San Fran is 8-0 ATS the last 8 home meetings vs. the Bears. The last time they met was in 2012 when the 49ers won 32-7 on a Monday Night Football game when Kaepernick made his first career start. I will note that Jason Cambell was the quarterback for the Bears and that's some of the reason they only scored 7 points. Sure, I think the Bears score 17-20 points in this game, but it won't be easy and it will not be enough. Jay Cutler proved last week vs. the Bills that he is still interception prone by throwing 2 INT's. The guy is a 'gun slinger', but sometimes he just throws it up for grabs. He figures to be under pressure this Sunday night as the Bears are expected to miss their starting center and left guard. Also the Bears two big explosive wide receivers, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey are listed as questionable. Jeffrey is nursing a hamstring injury while Marshall didn't practice on Friday but did participate in the walk-through portion. While both guys might play, I have to question how effective they will be if not 100%. The Bears are already without their two reserve wide receivers, Josh Morgan and Marquess Wilson and now the offense is lacking serious depth for this game. The 49ers were able to rest and take it easy in Week 1 as they had a comfortable lead on the Cowboys at half. I will say they are the much fresher team for this game as the Bears had to go toe-to-toe with Buffalo, only to lose in overtime which in turns gives them no momentum for tonight's game. It should also be noted that the Bears are only 2-16 ATS on the road when the total is set at 45 or more points. While San Fran's secondary is also banged up, I do think that they can win the battle at the line of scrimmage, put pressure on Cutler, and hold their own against the Bears injury riddled wide receivers. I will also note that Buffalo ran for 193 on the bears last week and HC Harbaugh will utilize Frank Gore and the rookie Carlos Hyde who is a bruiser that is great in short yard situations. (He averaged 7 yards a carry last week). I also look for the 49ers to run some read-option with Kaepernick and against a poor Chicago defensive line. The Bears went out and got Jared Allen in the off season, but he looked last week like he is running on fumes. When it's all said and done with, the 49ers offense and defense will control the line of scrimmage and win this game easily. I am looking for a final in the 31-17 range.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

SPORTS WAGERS

CINCINNATI -5 over Atlanta

There was a lot of betting interest in Atlanta’s game against New Orleans last week and most of that interest was directed against the Falcons. The market took a lot of Saints money and now that same market, that saw Atlanta look sharp for 60 minutes, isn’t so anxious to bet against them again. The market loves offense. Last week against a very good Saints defense, the Falcons went off with the most passing yards (448) of any team in the season opener and now the Falcons are being offered an enticing five points. We say don’t bite. Atlanta plays much better at home than they do on the road. Last year the Dirty Birds went 1-7 on the road and last week’s win was hugely emotional for them. Furthermore, Atlanta has a prime time game on deck at home on Thursday against the Buccaneers, another division foe, which creates this “sandwich” angle.

Hue Jackson's first game as the offensive coordinator notched a road win for the Bengals and they now face two home games before the early bye. The intended return to a more run-heavy rushing attack hasn't happened yet with 38 pass plays to only 18 rushes by the running backs but it was a road game against a familiar opponent. So far the offense has lost nothing from last year and a visiting Falcons team figures to promote more running. Atlanta allowed 4.6 yards per carry to the Saints. In an effort to limit Atlanta’s possessions, Cinci will use that information and run often. Remember, the Bengals went 8-0 at home last season and they already have a nice road win in Baltimore. Although it’s early in the season, the best time to jump off a team is when everyone is jumping on and that applies to the Falcons here. We’re jumping off.

WASHINGTON -6 over Jacksonville

Man, we hate spotting points with bad teams and seldom recommend doing so but this one warrants it. The typically festive Philadelphia Eagles fans were questioning their faith when Jacksonville – in their house, no less – took a 17-0 lead to halftime. What were the halftime adjustments? Let’s suck now? Let’s lose one for the Gipper? Jacksonville gave up 34 unanswered points and are now wondering what the first draft pick next May is worth? Chad Henne passed for a respectable 266 yards and two scores in Philly but 110 yards and both scores happened early on long connections with rookie Allen Hurns. Take away those two plays and Jacksonville looked worse than last season. That was nothing short of brutal but because of the scare the Jags put into Philly, not to mention Survival players all across North America, Jacksonville’s stock is up. We’re sellers.

Meanwhile, Washington went into Houston, against a 2-14 team from a year ago, and managed to score six points in a 17-6 loss. Last year, Robert Griffin III pushed himself to get back as early as Adrian Peterson from a torn ACL and he wasn’t close to the player he was before his knee ligaments got shredded. He was a shell of his rookie self in 2013. He didn’t run and didn’t push the big-play offense like he did as a rookie when he led the Redskins to a division title. He struggled all season and, when push came to shove, Mike Shanahan was shown the door. With a new offense, nothing seemed to change. RG3 looked incredibly uncomfortable and indecisive, checking down on almost every pass that wasn’t open and now his stock is way down and so is the team he plays for. What often gets overlooked in a loss is some very promising signs and that’s what we see here. It may surprise you to learn that Washington outgained Houston and held the Texans to a mere 206 yards passing and just over 300 yards of total offense. Furthermore, RG3 went 29/37 for 267 yards. The Redskins defense looked better and so did its offense. To give you an idea of how one week influences bettors, consider last year’s road schedule for the Jags. Last season Jacksonville was a 19½-point dog in Seattle, an 11-point pooch in St. Louis, a 26½-point underdog in Denver, an 11½-point pup in Tennessee, a 10½-point dog in Houston, a 7½-point dog in Cleveland and finally an 11-point dog in Indy to close out the year. Now this same team with few upgrades, if any at all, are just a six-point pooch in Washington because of their game effort last week. Truth is, it wasn’t a game effort, it was two miracle plays that the Eagles got caught sleeping on. The Jags will play consecutive road games to open the year and they’re getting way too much credit in this number.

N.Y. GIANTS +120 over Arizona

The approach in Week 1 was to bet for and against undervalued/overvalued teams that were over-bet/under-bet by the public based on last year’s results. Week 2 provides more opportunities based on several overreactions to those Week 1 results. The G-Men played in the first Monday Night game of the year. The entire betting world saw what we saw, which was big trouble in Gotham City. 2013 saw the Giants take a collective step backwards when the offense just looked old, unstable and predictable and Eli Manning turned into an interception machine. Bring in a new offensive coordinator from Green Bay in Ben McAdoo and it still looks just as bad as last year. Detroit made the Giants look silly and that’s an understatement. As we’ve learned in this business over the years, you can’t put too much emphasis on one game but that’s precisely what the market is doing this week. That provides us with this strong buy-low opportunity. Arizona is not Detroit. The Lions offense is loaded with talent and a great QB while the Cardinals offense has neither. The Giants defense actually did a great job last week against the run, holding the Lions to a mere 66 yards on 24 carries. The Giants do not have to deal with another prolific passing game in this one.

Arizona also played on Monday Night and a thing of beauty it was not. A fraction of the audience that saw the Giants get whacked in the early game saw Arizona struggle against San Diego. The Cardinals rallied from a 17-6 fourth quarter deficit to just edge the Chargers, 18-17. That was not an easy win. It was an emotional win and it also exerted a lot of energy. Now the Cardinals have to travel on a short week to the East Coast and that has always been challenging for this outfit. Had this game been played in Week 1 instead of Week 2, the Giants would have been a -3 point favorite. Now they’re a 2½-3 point dog because of last week’s exposure and results. Whenever a primetime game is as one-sided as the one the Giants were dominated in, there is an overreaction the following week from the public and that applies here. We’ll look to take advantage.

Dallas +3½ over TENNESSEE

You’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of the Titans 26-10 victory in Kansas City. What we read and hear now is how Tennessee’s new HC, Ken Whisenhunt is a QB guru and how he’s going to turn Jake Locker into Joe Montana. We’re not buying it. Indeed Whisenhunt knows his stuff and maybe Locker does indeed turn into a good QB but we’re going to have to see much more from Locker and the Titans than a win over the offense-less Chiefs before we start buying them up as the chalk. Kansas City has no weapons on offense. Jamaal Charles went off for 19 yards on the ground and caught four passes for 15 yards (14 yards on one catch and one yard on the other three). The Titans defense isn’t overpowering, they just stopped a team that can’t move five yards and that held the ball for 22 minutes out of 60. Of course the Titans won. Tennessee’s offensive numbers were skewed because Kansas City’s defense was on the field gasping for air the entire game. Imagine being on the field for over 37 minutes in a 60 minute game. The same fate does not await the Titans in this one.

Dallas was down 21-3 after one quarter against San Fran, which prompted most couch potatoes to tune into the other late game, Carolina at Tampa Bay. Lost in Dallas’ defeat was the fact that they outgained San Fran and had 26 first downs to the 49ers 19. Dallas was being criticized heavily for its weak defense before the season even started but they actually played a very good game last week. The ‘Boys held San Fran off the scoreboard in the second half. They only allowed 192 yards through the air and had it not been for that poor first quarter, they would have defeated the 49ers. Tony Romo has been playing at a very high level for a long time and Dallas also has an outstanding running game that went off for 127 yards last week on 23 carries. Tennessee’s defense played very little against the Chiefs. That’s not beneficial. Those guys barely broke a sweat and sat for long stretches throughout the entire game. Don’t let the media convince you that Dallas has no defense. Second year players always show great improvement and we liked what we saw from the ‘Boys last week. Now the Titans stock is high while the Cowboys stock is still low and that provides us with this outstanding opportunity to take back points with the vastly superior QB. Cowboys outright and we may play them on the money line come Sunday morning.

St. Louis +6 over TAMPA BAY

This isn’t a reaction to Tampa Bay’s loss to the Panthers but instead it’s a gross overreaction to the Rams getting blown out by the Vikings. St. Louis goes from a 3½-point favorite over Minnesota to a 6-point dog, which is a swing of 9½-points against the Buccaneers for Christ’s sake! We could understand it if it were against an above average team or even an average one but the Buccaneers are neither. Tampa was overpriced last week against the Panthers and they are even more overpriced this week. Adding to that overreaction is the fact that St. Louis is forced into using its third string QB Austin Davis again. Still, Davis has a game under his belt and went off for 192 yards against Carolina and takes a big step down in class when facing this defense.

Lovie Smith brings in much defensive focus for the Bucs but it is evident that even he cannot run around one of the worst defenses in the matter of a few games. Even if the Bucs defense plays better and has a decent game, so what? They still have to overcome their offense. Josh McCown still looks like the journeyman quarterback hopping from team to team. He passed for 183 yards, threw two picks and was sacked three times. The Rams defense is outstanding but last week’s score did not reveal that. They held AP to just 75 yards on 21 carries but they were on the field way too often to keep bailing out the offense. This week figures to be a different story, as the Rams are in much softer here. With Tampa's O-Line woes, despite the addition of Logan Mankins, the Rams fierce pass rush is about to make life even more miserable for McCown. Once again the buy-low theory comes into play here against a brutal Tampa team that should not be favored by this much over anyone.