Dr Bob
WASHINGTON (-6) 25 Jacksonville 16
It was a tale of two halves last week for the Jaguars as they jumped out to a 17-0 first half lead against the Eagles before they imploded in the third quarter and eventually lost 17-34. The Jaguars were outgained 306 yards at 4.3 yppl to 420 yards at 5.2 yppl for the Eagles while being +2 in turnovers. They just couldn’t get anything done on the ground, gaining 64 yards at 2.6 ypr, and after a good first half, Jags QB Chad Henne cooled off considerably in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the Redskins offense didn’t fare much better in generating only 6 points, but actually moved the ball well at times, tallying 372 yards at 5.9 yppl in a 6-17 loss to the Texans in Houston. Turnovers were the killer for the Redskins as twice they fumbled inside the Texans 10 yard line. And after a terrible season in the kicking game last year, the Redskins picked up right where they left off in 2013 having not only an extra point blocked, but also having a blocked punt that Houston scooped up and ran back for a touchdown.
It looks like the Redskins could be missing two key players this week with injuries to TE Jordan Reed and DT Barry Cofield while the Jaguars lost their best player in the secondary late in the first half last week when safety Johnathan Cyprien left the game with a head injury. He, along with RB Toby Gerhart are key questions marks. Defensively the Jaguars looked to be an improved team last week, especially in the first half, but offensively there are still a lot of holes. Projections show advantages both on the ground and in the air in this one for the Redskins, and my ratings favor them here by nearly eleven points. There is a situation that applies to this game that is 82-143-8 that plays against the Redskins, however, and for that reason, I’ll just lean their way.
Miami (pk) 22 BUFFALO 20
After outscoring the Patriots 23-0 in the second half last week in Miami, the Dolphins were able to pull out a big divisional win in Week 1. They’ll now look to make it two in a row against the Bills, after their own underdog upset win last week, against the Bears. These teams know each other well, and the Dolphins will certainly be looking to avenge their 0-19 loss in Buffalo last December, which occurred a week after beating the Patriots in Miami, same as this year. Their newly restructured offensive line will have a different challenge this week, however, facing one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, and one that sacked QB Ryan Tannehill seven times while harassing him all day last December. The new Dolphins hurry-up scheme will look to wear the Bills defensive line out, preventing substitution, and getting rid of the ball quickly. Max protection does not appear to be in the Dolphins game plan this week, with emphasis on tempo and individual execution, and an attempt to spread the field. Meanwhile, the Bills also have intentions on increased pace. Their emphasis will be getting their run game on track, something the Patriots were unable to do consistently last week, gaining just 89 yards on the ground.
I don’t have any situations in play in this game and my ratings favor Miami by about two points. Both teams should be able to run the ball at around an average level but I expect that the difference in this game will be determined by the passing offenses. If the Dolphins can protect Tannehill, they should be able to move the ball in the air and score on a Bills defense that allowed 341 yards at 6.7 yps last week against the Bears. I don’t have such high hopes for EJ Manuel, who played efficiently last week but will be facing a pass defense that just held Tom Brady to 3.8 yps last week. I’ll lean with the Dolphins.
Atlanta (+5) 23 CINCINNATI 25
With both teams coming off of big Week 1 divisional victories last week, this game may be a bit of a letdown spot, particularly for the Falcons as they face another divisional foe in the Buccaneers on a short week in primetime next Thursday night. In their 37-34 overtime win in Atlanta last week, the Falcons overcame a slow start and a 7-20 second quarter deficit by passing the ball behind an improved offensive line, and with WR Julio Jones back from injury and former Bear WR Devin Hester contributing 5 catches for 99 yards. Defensively, they didn’t have much success against Drew Brees and the Saints offense, allowing 472 yards at 6.7 yppl, and they will face a difficult challenge this week in Cincinnati. The Bengals jumped out to a 15-0 lead on Baltimore last Sunday before the Ravens came back in the 4th quarter to take the lead, but the Bengals responded immediately with a 77 yard TD pass from Andy Dalton to AJ Green for the final score, and the difference in the game. Dalton had a solid game, passing for 301 yards at 7.9 yps without a turnover as the Bengals passing offense clicked.
These teams both feature very good passing offenses but Cincinnati has an excellent pass defense where the Falcons do not. The Bengals held the Ravens passing offense to just 5.1 yps last week, sacking Joe Flacco three times and creating two turnovers. There has been some concern this week about the status of DT Geno Atkins who was carted off the field after last week’s game with injuries to his feet. The Bengals also lost TE Tyler Eifert to an elbow injury last week and LB Vontaze Burflict to a concussion. Eifert will be out a while as he was put on IR with designation to return but it appears that Burflict may be able to return this week. The Falcons sustained some injuries of their own, with 1st round draft pick and new left tackle Jake Matthews leaving the game with an ankle injury and it appears that he could be out for a while. I don’t have any situations in play on this game but my ratings favor the Bengals by about two points. With no real opinion on this game, I’ll lean with the Falcons plus the points based on that.
CLEVELAND (+6.5) 21 New Orleans 27
After a big divisional loss in Atlanta, the Saints will attempt to right the ship as they travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns, fresh off of a close divisional loss themselves against the Steelers. They’ll attempt to do it after giving up 37 points and a whopping 568 yards last week in Atlanta. The level of competition won’t be quite as high this week, particularly the passing offense, as the Saints will be taking a step down from Matt Ryan, facing Browns QB Brian Hoyer instead. Hoyer’s numbers were not terrible last week, passing for 206 yards at 6.1 yps without a turnover, but much of that was gained in the second half after the Steelers had built a commanding 27-3 lead and had breathing room. I’d be surprised to see a repeat performance against a fired up Saints defense, one that projections show should be very good against the pass this season. Cleveland will be hard pressed to keep up with a Saints offense that generated 472 yards at 6.7 yppl last week while scoring 34 points and will be looking for their first win. If last week’s performance is any indication, Cleveland will have trouble keeping the Saints offense in check. After giving up 490 total yards to the Steelers last week, with 364 of those yards and 27 points coming in the first half, it doesn’t get any easier for the Browns.
There is a negative 19-56-4 situation that plays against the Saints in this game but there is a 179-249-12 statistical indicator playing against the Browns as well. The situation that plays against the Saints is a bit stronger than the negative indicator on the Browns and my ratings favor the Saints in this spot by just less than five points. I don’t have much of an opinion on this game but based on my numbers, I’ll lean slightly with the Browns plus the points.
Arizona (-2.5) 25 NY GIANTS 19
The Cardinals were fortunate to come away with the win last Monday night, coming back from an 11 point fourth quarter deficit for a narrow 18-17 victory against the Chargers. Despite losing some key players in the front seven in the offseason, their dominant run defense didn’t skip a beat, holding San Diego to 52 rushing yards at 2.2 ypr. Overall, they allowed just 290 yards at 4.8 yppl to a good Chargers offense. Offensively, they moved the ball well and racked up 404 total yards at 6.3 yppl, but were -1 in turnover differential. This week they travel to the east coast for a 10am Pacific start time to face a Giants team that was embarrassed in the early Monday night game by the Lions, losing 14-35. The Giants were thoroughly outplayed, generating just 197 total yards at 3.5 yppl to 420 yards at 7.0 yppl for the Lions, while being -2 in the turnover battle. They did play good rush defense, however, holding the Lions to 79 yards at 2.9 ypr.
After such a poor performance on a national stage, I expect the Giants to bounce back and play more inspired football this week at home. Their offense is clearly still trying to find itself with a new system in place and a lack of skilled position players, and it may take some time. However, the defense is talented and will likely need to carry this team for a while. The Cardinals qualify in a couple of fundamental rushing situations that are 657-485-40 and 215-102-14 as well as a statistical match up indicator that is 49-24-1. Based on the situations, I’ll lean with the Cardinals.
TENNESSEE (-3.5) 27 Dallas 22
In their 17-28 loss last week at home to the 49ers, the Cowboys imploded nearly immediately, and never really had much of a chance after falling into a 3-28 halftime deficit. A turnover difference of -4 was the culprit, driven by three Tony Romo poor decisions and the opening minute Chris Culliver fumble return for a 49ers TD. Otherwise, the Cowboys generated a decent statistical performance. They’ll face a Titans team this week that comes into the game after garnering positive reviews for their 26-10 dismantling of the Chiefs in Kansas City. Tennessee dominated statistically with an overall yardage advantage of 408 yards at 5.6 yppl to 245 yards at 4.4 yppl for the Chiefs. They also were the beneficiary of a +3 turnover differential, driven by a Kansas City offensive scheme that expanded its downfield approach, much to the chagrin of Alex Smith, who tossed the three interceptions. Off of a poor performance last week, I expect the Cowboys to bounce back with inspired play and improved offensive production. They certainly have the ability to do it with a strong offensive line and skill position players on offense, but with such a bad defense they’ll simply have to outscore the opposition, and that requires playing mistake free football on offense, something that they struggled with last week.
I have situations going both ways in this game that essentially cancel each other out, while my ratings favor the Titans by almost five points. With what appears to be a more focused and cleverly schemed offense, the Titans should move the ball well in this game. Their defense may still have a bit of a learning curve as it adjusts from the 4-3 alignment of last season to Horton's hybrid 3-4 and may present opportunities for exploitation by the Cowboys talented offense. I’ll lean with the Titans.
Detroit (+2.5) 23 CAROLINA 20
In their 35-14 home win against the Giants on Monday night, the Lions started fast and never really looked back. Detroit rolled up 420 yards at 7.0 yppl, with most of the damage done in the passing game. QB Matthew Stafford threw for 341 yards at 10.3 yps, but the Detroit ground game never really got on track. In the first half, Detroit had 13 carries for 15 yards, with 10 of those yards gained on one carry. They finally were able to generate some ground production late in the game, long after it was out of reach for the Giants. Carolina’s front seven is among the best in the game, and getting traction in the run game will be difficult for the Lions in this matchup. Detroit had one of the best pass-protecting offensive lines in the NFL last season and held up fairly well last week, but they will face a serious challenge with the Panthers defensive line. They harassed Bucs QB Josh McCown consistently last week, registering three sacks and generating three turnovers. And despite having several new players in the secondary, the Panthers pass defense also played well against the Bucs, holding McCown to 162 passing yards at 4.3 yps.
Detroit qualifies in a couple of statistical matchup indicators that are 657-485-40 and 148-85-12 but may be in a flat spot here after the big home Monday night victory in Week 1 and with a home game against the division rival Packers next week. Carolina played better than expected last week overall with lots of questions on the offensive line, receiver group and secondary. The offensive line played surprisingly well despite new starters at four positions, giving backup QB Derek Anderson time to throw, and allowing just one sack and three QB hits. Rookie WR Kelvin Benjamin looks like the real deal and this receiver group may actually be better than last seasons. In addition, the secondary held up well. With Carolina getting QB Cam Newton back and a non-conference game on deck, the Panthers should be focused. My ratings favor the Lions by about a point and with the situations pointing in the Lions direction, I’ll also lean slightly their way.
St. Louis (+6) 17 TAMPA BAY 22
Tampa Bay played well below expectations last week in their 14-20 loss to the Panthers in Tampa and after the game it appears that this team is more of a work in progress than many anticipated. The Bucs were dominated on both sides of the ball for most of this game, trailing 0-17 before finally scoring a touchdown on a Josh McCown pass with 9:34 left. It was really ugly offensive football and it appeared that the new schemes on both sides of the ball had not really sunk in yet. With former Cal head coach Jeff Tedford not participating much after undergoing a medical procedure last week, and with his new system being implemented, the Bucs offense floundered. It takes time for a new system to become second nature for a team, but add in the fact that the Bucs also have a number of new players, including the QB, and there will definitely be some growing pains. The Bucs passing offense was held to just 162 yards at 4.3 yps against the Panthers and will once again face a talented defensive line with the ability to pressure the quarterback. On the other side, the Rams were blown out by an improved Vikings team last week 6-34 and had lots of trouble of their own protecting their passers. Starting QB Shaun Hill was knocked out of the game with a quadriceps injury and it remains to be seen if he will be back this Sunday.
No matter who plays quarterback I expect a bounce-back performance by the Rams. Jeff Fisher is a good coach and his teams are 86-64 ATS as a dog. In addition, the Rams have a stable offensive system and a serious matchup advantage along their defensive front. Injuries along the Bucs defensive line to newly acquired DE Michael Johnson and incumbent DE Adrian Clayborn may mean that Tampa is forced to play backups at both positions. While the loss of Rams DE Chris Long is significant as a team leader for the Rams, he has capable backups in William Hayes and Eugene Sims. While it appears that the Rams underperformed last week, it also appears that Tampa played to the level of where they are currently as a team. The Bucs qualify in several negative situations that are 50-109-3, 41-96-3 and 24-74-1. This is too many points for the Bucs to give up so I’ll lean to the Rams plus the points.
Seattle (-6) 25 SAN DIEGO 17
The Seahawks dominated the Packers on opening night, winning 36-16 behind a balanced offense and a stifling defense. Green Bay had trouble defending a well schemed Seahawks offense that kept them off balance with power runs up the middle and jet sweeps with Percy Harvin to the outside, stretching the defense in every direction with both speed and strength. Defensively, half the field was eliminated with Rodgers never attempting to throw in CB Richard Sherman’s direction, instead opting wisely to take advantage of the Jordy Nelson/Byron Maxwell matchup. The Packers offense could never really get on track, however, and were held to 255 total yards at 4.5 yppl overall. The Chargers had similarly poor offensive production last week against a good Cardinals defense that really shut down the run, while keeping QB Philip Rivers in check in their 17-18 loss on Monday night. Things won’t get any easier for the Chargers this week as they’ll also be without center Nick Hardwick who was placed on season ending IR. Hardwick was voted their Most Inspirational Player last year and was also their team Lineman of the Year each of the last three seasons. He was the team co-captain and made protection calls and adjustments at the line. His loss will be a big one for the Chargers. And although it probably doesn’t mean much in this game, in their preseason matchup the Seahawks dominated San Diego, jumping out to a 24-0 lead while out-gaining the Chargers by a margin of 255-42 with their starters in the game.
The good news for the Chargers is that the Seahawks are in a bit of a flat spot, coming off the opening night, national stage home win against the Packers and coming back home next week to face the Broncos in a Super Bowl rematch. The Chargers will be focused to prevent an 0-2 start after losing the opener in Arizona last week, and have the talent to play well and keep this game close if the Seahawks don’t bring their A game. My ratings only favor the Seahawks by about 4.5 points but Seattle qualifies in a good 103-32-4 statistical match up situation. I don’t like the spot for Seattle and the preseason domination will likely lend to a bit of overconfidence on the part of the Seahawks, while the Chargers will be highly motivated after getting manhandled the way they did. I’ll lean to the Seahawks minus the points based on the situation.
OAKLAND (+3) 18 Houston 19
The Texans came away with a 17-6 home win last week against the Redskins in a game where they were outgained 318 yards to 372 yards for Washington. Timely turnovers and special teams play were the difference for Houston, as the Redskins fumbled twice inside the Houston 10 yard line and had a punt blocked for a Texans TD to go along with a blocked extra point. The Texans won’t get that lucky every week, although with a rookie QB on the other side behind a subpar offensive line this week, they very well could. The Raiders offense was terrible last week and posted a stat line that is shocking: 159 total yards at 3.3 yppl, including rushing for just 26 yards at 1.9 ypr. They didn’t turn the ball over, although Jets rookie safety Calvin Pryor dropped what looked like could have been a pick-6. In fact, the Raiders were +2 in turnover differential and that difference is what kept them in the game and made the score appear closer than it really should have been. Defensively, they allowed the Jets to generate 404 yards of total offense at 6.4 yppl, including 214 yards rushing at 6.7 ypr.
First overall pick Jadeveon Clowney injured his knee and will be out for 4-6 weeks but the rest of the Texans' defense played with a chip on their shoulder and a renewed energy last week. Defensive end J.J. Watt, linebacker Brooks Reed, and safety D.J. Swearinger were particularly impressive. Points will be at a premium in this game as the Raiders also have talent on defense and should bounce back this week after a poor showing in New York. I don’t have any situations in play but I expect a low scoring affair with my ratings projecting a 1 point Texans victory. I’ll lean slightly with the Raiders plus the points.
Kansas City (+11.5) 21 DENVER 31
After a terrible performance last week against the Titans in a 10-26 home loss, it doesn’t get any easier for Kansas City. With poor offensive line and quarterback play, the Chiefs were only able to produce 245 total yards at 4.4 yppl last week while turning the ball over three times on Alex Smith interceptions. This was against a Titans defense that is a work in progress with a new defensive coordinator who recently said that the defense was going to take time to gel. Defensively, they allowed the Titans, who are also implementing a new offensive scheme, to both run and pass the ball effectively, giving up 408 total yards at 5.6 yppl. This week they get to face the Broncos, who beat Kansas City both times last year and have only gotten stronger this offseason. The Broncos jumped out to an early 24-0 lead last Sunday night in Denver before allowing the Colts back in the game late for a 31-24 final score. Peyton Manning commands the top passing offense in the AFC and should have little trouble dissecting a Kansas City pass defense that made Jake Locker look like a superstar last week.
The Chiefs have a myriad of issues right now with their offensive line being possibly their biggest problem. Closely behind is the state of their defensive front seven, which lost both linebacker Derrick Johnson and defensive end Mike DeVito to Achilles injuries in Week 1. The losses will be felt by the Kansas City defense as Johnson is one of the team’s defensive leaders and DeVito a tough and mostly underrated run stuffer. The Chiefs do get their top WR, Dwayne Bowe, back from suspension and he should help a struggling pass offense, as long as the offensive line is able to provide some protection against the likes of LB Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. Division games like this can be tough, especially when one team played well below expectations last week, like the Chiefs did. I don’t have any situations that apply but my ratings favor the Broncos by about 10 points so I’ll lean slightly with the Chiefs getting the large number.
Chicago (+6.5) 22 SAN FRANCISCO 24
It’s a new season but the same old problems have appeared to start the season for the Bears. After multiple injuries and poor play destroyed the Bears rush defense in 2013, an infusion of talent along with a return to health of several players had the Bears optimistic that 2014 would be different. It only took one game to see that things haven’t changed as much as they had hoped as the Bears were gashed for 197 rushing yards at 6.4 ypr last week against the Bills. It won’t get any easier this week with a trip to San Francisco and a date with the 49ers powerful rushing attack. On the other side, the 49ers bring a balanced offense that appears poised to improve with additions in WR Stevie Johnson and rookie RB Carlos Hyde as well as the additional experience gained by QB Colin Kaepernick, now in his 4th season.
The problem with the 49ers this season is on defense and with several players in the secondary going down with injuries last week on top of the suspension to LB Aldon Smith and injuries to Navorro Bowman, this is a unit that is missing much of its firepower. The Bears have injury concerns of their own with WR’s Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey getting banged up last week, along with offensive linemen Roberto Garza and Matt Slauson. The good news is that if the Bears need to go with Brian de la Puente at center and Michael Ola at guard, both players turned in a good showing after entering the game against the Bills. Add to that the fact that the 49ers pass rush didn’t pack its usual punch against the Cowboys and an injured secondary suddenly becomes a real liability against what could be a potent Bears passing offense.
I don’t have any situations that apply to this game but my ratings only favor the 49ers here by about three points. It’s not strong enough to pull the trigger on, but I’ll offer a lean to the Bears plus the points.
DAVE COKIN
ATLANTA FALCONS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS
PLAY: CINCINNATI BENGALS -5.5
The Falcons overcame an early deficit to pull out a thrilling overtime win against the Saints in Week One. That’s a terrific way to start the season for a team looking to put 2013 as far into the rear view mirror as possible. But I see Atlanta being up against it this week as they hit the road to take on the Bengals.
First off, while I won’t call a Week Two game a letdown spot, I’m still not a big fan of backing a team off a win like the ones the Falcons had when it also happened to take place against its most heated rival. It’s definitely a situation where a bounce would not be at all shocking.
I’m also still not at all enamored with the Atlanta defense. I have that unit as well below average, and that opinion wasn’t altered to any extent with what I saw last Sunday.
I also can see the Falcons having an offensive line issue. This team lost left tackle Sam Baker for the season when he blew out his patellar tendon in a pre-season game. That necessitated moving highly touted rookie Jake Matthews into Baker’s spot. But now Matthews is also injured, which in effect means Atlanta will now be down to its third option at this very crucial position. Skill position players get more attention from the betting public when they’re out, but underestimating the significance of injuries in the trenches can be a big mistake.
The Bengals are also off a very exciting rivalry win, as they finally managed to go into Baltimore and come away with a win. But I don’t see as much chance of a decline off that win for Cincinnati. It’s their home opener, and while they won that opener, no one on the offense seemed particularly overjoyed with the fact the Bengals had to settle for five field goals in the first half, while never denting the end zone. They did get the one big play they really needed to notch the win, but fixing the inefficiency of the offense has been a major point of emphasis in practice this week.
I don’t see this as a greta matchup to begin with from the Falcons standpoint. I don’t see the offense being anywhere near as potent as it was last week, and I believe the Bengals are going to successfully exploit the vulnerability at left tackle. The points are substantial enough to at least give pause, but in the end I expect Cincinnati to win by at least one TD. I’ll therefore side with the Bengals minus the points in this one.
Is there a forum for the users to post their own plays? 151
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Michael Alexander
Dallas Cowboys vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Dallas Cowboys +3.5
The Titans turned a 3-0 deficit into a 23-3 lead, versus KC, sacked Smith 4 times, and picked him off 3 times. Tennessee QB 22-of-33 with 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The Cowboys out statted San Francisco but couldn't overcome a 28-3 first half deficit. Romo had just 1 touchdown with 3 interceptions but RB Murray had 118 rushing yards. Dallas has give up 30.5 points per game in their last 10 but did hold San Francisco scoreless in 2nd half. The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS as an underdog versus the AFC while the underdog is 40-15 ATS in Dallas games.
TJ Masterline
Saints vs. Browns
Play: Over 48.5
The New Orleans Saints played arguably the game of the week during Week 1 of their NFL season when they fell in overtime to the Atlanta Falcons. A competitor for “Game of the Week” honors last week goes to the Cleveland Browns, as they nearly erased a 27-3 halftime deficit, only to lose on a last-second field goal to the Pittsburgh Steelers. With Week 2 acting as Cleveland’s home opener, look for this matchup to be much more competitive than most fans will think. For whatever reasons, not only are the Saints a different team on the road, they are drastically different. Drew Brees seems to struggle more and the team does not score as many points as they do in the Superdome. Now, maybe 2014 will sing a different tune for New Orleans, as they were able to put up 34 points in Atlanta. While they need to maintain their scoring rate, the Saints defense is their biggest question mark. Coming off a dreadful performance, allowing 37 points to the Falcons, New Orleans needs to be cognizant that Week 2 will be a lower scoring game. The Browns showed a ton of fight during Week 1, as they nearly pulled off a miraculous 24-point comeback. With Jordan Cameron banged up and Ben Tate already out, it will be tough for the Browns to put up 27 points again, making it vital that their defense comes to play. Cleveland has playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, and those guys need to make this game into an ugly one for the upset to be pulled. Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Over is 11-3 in Saints last 14 games in Week 2. Over is 6-0 in Browns last 6 games following a ATS win. Over is 7-1 in Browns last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Browns last 6 home games. Over is 5-1 in Browns last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Over is 7-2 in Browns last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Over is 5-2 in Browns last 7 games on grass. Over is 7-3 in Browns last 10 games overall.
Tony Stoffo
Texans vs. Raiders
Play: Under 40
With the Raiders only gaining 158 yards in their game against the Jets, and the Texans also having problems offensively in their win against the Redskins - Sure makes for a lower scoring game here and a solid release on the under in this spot today. Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games overall. Under is 10-2 in Texans last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under this posted total the play here. Under is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games in September. Under is 9-2-1 in Raiders last 12 home games. Plus the early sharp money has come in on the under during the week.
King Creole
Texans vs. Raiders
Play: Under 40
Two offensively-challenged teams hook up on the West Coast on Sunday. Oakland ran only 49 offensive plays (2nd lowest last week) in their 19-14 loss to the Jets... and generated only 158 TOTAL yards. Houston only had 56 offensive plays in their win over Washington. That's definitely not what you call quick-paced NFL teams.
With both off LOW-scoring results, we note that NFL GAME TWO's have gone 0-6 O/U since 2009 with BOTH teams off an UNDER... and the OU line is < 41 points.
And from a W/L perspective, GAME TWO non-division home dogs off a loss (Oak) have gone 1-8 O/U versus an opponent off a SU win (Hou)... when the OU line is < 50 pts.
The score was 17 to 6 in Houston's Game One win.
1-10 O/U since 2006: All NFL favs off a SU home win in which they scored 17 < pts and allowed 6 < Pts (Hou).. when the OU line is < 41 pts.
Houston plays in the AFC South Division while Oakland plays in the AFC West division. 0-6-1 O/U last 12 months: All AFC WEST home teams (Oak) versus a AFC SOUTH opponent when the OU line is 50 < pts.
Oakland had a long 'West Coast to East' Coast road trip last week. These WESTERN time zone teams returning home off such a trip have gone 0-7 O/U in the last 2 years if
they went UNDER in that previous game... and the OU line is < 45 points. Final score: 17 to 13.
Marc Lawrence
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Edges - Chiefs: 11-0 ATS dogs off SU DD loss; and coach Andy Reid 19-3 ATS in his NFL career in games off a SU favorites loss in which his team lost to the spread by 8 or more points. Broncos: 0-7 ATS home division games versus opponent off SU DD no-division loss; and 2-8 ATS favorites in 2nd game of season. With Denver looking dead ahead to a Super Bowl rematch next week against Seattle, we recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City, we recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.
Jim Feist
Jets at Packers
Pick: Over
The Jets had that great defensive game last week, but the over is 20-9 in the Jets last 29 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. They won't be able to play conservative this week as the Packers can strike quickly and get out to leads. The over is 15-5 in the Jets last 20 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Green Bay has great balanced on offense, top 10 in rushing AND passing a year ago, and has had extra time to prepare a game plan after a loss at Seattle in the opener. The over is 22-9 in the Packers last 31 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Joe D'Amico
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Green Bay must avoid an 0-2 start. They are a bit banged up on their OL but so is the New York secondary. The Packers have had 10 days to rest and prepare for this contest and get their Center and QB in sync. Aaron Rodgers will exploit a depleted and aged Jets secondary which he didn't have the luxury of doing in their opening loss in Seattle. I side with Green Bay to make a statement here that they are a force in the NFC.
Jack Jones
Houston Texans -3
I am big on the Houston Texans (1-0) to bounce back this season. They were a Super Bowl contender in 2011 and 2012 and won playoff games both seasons. They came into last year as a Super Bowl contender as well, but had everything possible go against them and were nowhere near as bad as their 2-14 record would indicate. I actually have the Texans winning the AFC South this year, which is how good I believe they can be.
After finishing 1st in the league in total defense in 2012, the Texans finished 7th in that category last year in spite of their 2-14 record. I look for them to contend for the top spot in total defense again in 2014. J.J. Watt is the best defensive player in the league, Brian Cushing is back healthy, and they have two shutdown corners on the outside. Jadeveon Clowney will be a beast when he's returns from a brief injury.
The Texans are off to a good start by limiting the Washington Redskins to just six points in a 17-6 victory in Week 1. All they gave up were short passes by Robert Griffin III, whose average throw sailed just 4.4 yards down the field. They limited the big plays against a good offense. Now, the Texans will be up against one of the worst offenses in the league in the Oakland Raiders.
Indeed, the Raiders were atrocious on this side of the ball against the Jets. This game was nowhere near as close as the 14-19 final would indicate as the Raiders got a late touchdown in garbage time to make it appear close. The fact of the matter is that this team was outgained by a whopping 244 total yards in the loss. The offense mustered up just 158 total yards, while the defense surrendered 402, including 212 on the ground.
I wasn't completely impressed with Houston's offense against Washington, but it wasn't ask to do too much as its defense was dominating. It was nice to see Arian Foster healthy as he rushed for 103 yards to help put the game away. If the Raiders gave up 212 to the Jets last week, I believe Foster could be in for one of the best games of his career on the ground Sunday.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OAKLAND) – off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with two or more straight losses are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS since 1983. The Raiders are 23-39 ATS in their last 49 games as a home underdog. Oakland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS win.
Steve Janus
Denver Broncos -11½
I know the Chiefs looked bad last week at home against the Titans, but I just don't feel like people realize how bad this Kansas City team is. Their offensive line is one of the worst in the league and defensively they have taken a big step back, especially now that they lost star middle linebacker Derrick Johnson for the rest of the season. Their corners are awful and there's just no way they are going to slow down Peyton Manning and the Broncos high-powered passing attack.
I look for Denver to jump all over Kansas City early and keep adding to their lead. The Chiefs are not a team to play from behind, especially with that pitiful offensive line. Alex Smith has had absolutely no time to throw the ball and it's not going to get any better when they are playing from behind and the Broncos defensive front can come after Smith knowing the Chiefs have to throw the ball. I look for this to be the biggest blowout of the weekend, as I see Denver winning here by 20+ points without much trouble.
Key Trends - Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 following a SU loss and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Denver is 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games as a favorite over the last 3 seasons, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a losing record, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 against the AFC West and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread last time out.
System - Home favorites who outscored opponents by 4+ points/game the previous season after a game where they scored 30+ points are 37-11 (77%) ATS since 1983.
Chip Chirimbes
Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Carolina Panthers -2½
Okay, we all saw the Lions destroy the New York Giants on Monday night as they allowed only 53 rushing yards while showing an explosive offense. Carolina managed to defeat everybody's darling last week as the 'public' and wiseguys alike took Tampa Bay as the Panthers pounded out a 20-14 win. Carolina has won their last six at home and with the return of Cam Newtown their offense should show a little more life. This is not a system play of any kind as most of the trends lean against the Panthers. Carolina's defense is much better then New York's and that the difference today.
Brad Diamond
Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals -5
The Bengals are at home this week after defeating the Ravens in Baltimore 23-16 as a 1-1/2 to 3-point underdog. Home standing Atlanta pulled out a 37-34 OT win in week #1 over favored New Orleans. Both units came into the season with strong possibilities of going into the playoffs. Although the Falcons finished last season 4-12 SU, they did suffer numerous injuries, while losing 5 games by four or less points. No doubt their fate could have gone another way. Hard charging Cincinnati did finish strong with a solid 11-6 SU mark losing a playoff game to San Diego 27-10.
The Bengals and Falcons opened at Cincinnati -5-½ on Sunday in Vegas, and the number has fluctuated all week between 5 and 5-1/2. The Bengals play their home opener looking to extend their 9 game win streak in Paul Brown’s crib. The injury report is not good, however, for Cincinnati as they have lost talented TE Tyler Eifert and A. J. Green is banged up. Green grabbed a 77-yard TD pass from QB Andy Dalton to decide the Baltimore affair. Check his status before game time. As far as the Falcons, week #1 had QB Matt Ryan throwing for 448 yards to help bringing his team back late in the game. In OT Matt Bryant booted a 52-yard FG to win the hotly contested affair. Overall the Falcons came up with 568 net yards of offense to achieve victory against the so-so defense of New Orleans.
We note, Atlanta has won the last three in this series. Cincinnati has not defeated the Falcons going all the way back to 1996. Still, Cincinnati swept their home games 8-0 in 2013 by an average of 18.7 points per game. If you pull out the Jets smash of 49-9, the Bengals still accrued a 12.6 point per game advantage…OUTSTANDING! In the regular season the Bengals 5-of-6 ATS, and show at 7-0-1 ATS as a home chalk. Plus, they roll with an 8-1-2 ATS mark vs. the NFC. Atlanta plays Sunday 1-5 ATS in their first road game, and 1-4 ATS before taking on Tampa Bay. We close with the visitor 1-4 ATS vs. the AFC. Our call is Cincinnati 34-27.