Red Dog Sports
NY Jets vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -7½
Green Bay is off a road loss at Seattle and now plays against a second year QB (Geno Smith) at home. The Packers have been off for 10 days while the Jets are off a home win vs. the Raiders. I expect Aaron Rodgers to play well and for Green Bay to win 30-20.
Sam Martin
New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Cleveland Browns
This line appears to be a trap as the initial reaction would be to lay the points with the superior offense. But we're going the other way and avoiding the trap this Sunday, taking the points with the Browns after being impressed with their second-half effort last week against the Steelers on the road.
Cleveland was down 27-3 at halftime against Pittsburgh, but stormed all the way back to tie the Steelers at 27 points each late, only to fall on the final play of the game as Pittsburgh kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired. Still, that second half has to instill confidence in this team and their secondary is vastly underrated. New Orleans is nearly invincible at home but not nearly as good on the road as last week showed. Browns keep it close again!
DAVE COKIN
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS
PLAY: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +5.5
No Adrian Peterson for the Vikings, and it’s Bill Belichick off a loss. Combine those two items and it’s sure not surprising that bettors are falling all over themselves betting the Patriots today. The fact there was a substantial adjustment in the betting line once the disturbing news on Peterson was released has not prevented the wagerers from firing on New England. I consulted with two solid sources yesterday to find out how the ticket count was running. One had it roughly 80/20 Pats, and the other a shade less than that, but still close to 70%.
Maybe the Pats take advantage of a distracted Vikings squad and end up romping to an easy road win. It’s certainly a possibility. New England still power rates as the better team and fading Belichick off a loss is not exactly a long term winner. But for someone who is very focused on garnering value, I think the Vikings are now the only way I can play.
There’s a really good early season angle that says to take the Vikings here. But I’m not much of an angle guy, to be honest. What has me roped in here is the Peterson adjustment. This line was altered by three points when the news broke that he was being deactivated for at least this game. I will state with complete certainty that there is no running back in the NFL, not even Peterson, who is worth three points on the betting line.
It’s actually a great job by the guys who put up the numbers. They overadjusted the number absolutely knowing what the overwhelming public reaction would be regarding the Peterson absence. That’s sound bookmaking, simple as that. And now, we’re going to get a duel between the pros and the joes, as the former are going to jump on what they believe to be value, and the latter blasting away with the chalk because they think they’re getting a steal with Peterson out.
I’m pretty consistent as far as this stuff goes. If it looks easy, it generally isn’t. I think the line is now too high and I have no problem taking advantage of what I now perceive as an overlay. The Vikings plus the points are the play for me.
Cajun Sports
Jets / Packers Under 46
Play UNDER on NFL teams who had a rush of at least 70 yards in their last game. The Jets running back Chris Ivory had a run of seventy-one yards in the Jets win over the Oakland Raiders 19 to 14. Ivory ended the game with a total of 102 yards rushing but the key factor for us is the fact he broke loose on a run of 71 yards. This system has a record of 45-63-4 UNDER. We will play the Jets Packers game to fall below the posted total on Sunday.
The Gold Sheet
Chiefs at Broncos
Play: Broncos -11
Denver played an excellent game last week, dominating Indianpolis, although losing the cover near the end. K.C. possesses neither the QBing, nor the receivers to make an Indy-like run if behind. WR Dwayne Bowe returns from suspension this week for K.C., but he is no longer a premium threat in the NFL. Moreover, speedy RB/KR DE'Anthony Thomas is out this week with a strained hamstring. The Chiefs are also playing two backups in their OL. On defense, K.C. lost starting LB Derrick Thomas and starting DE Mike DeVito with torn Achilles. The Broncos have covered 60% of their home games since Peyton Manning arrived.
Harry Bondi
Houston / Oakland Under 40
Two of the more sluggish offenses in the NFL square off in Oakland, so we'll call for a low-scoring affair. The Raiders were absolutely dismal with rookie Derek Carr at QB last week in their loss to the NY Jets. The team only managed to run 49 offensive plays while generating 176 yards of total offense, with 76 of them coming on a meaningless final TD drive of the game and we don't expect a much better output here today. Meanwhile, the Texans were also running in quick sand on offense last week, scoring 17 points. With journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, the Texans only had two drives extend into Redskins territory and last longer than six plays. The trends are also with us here as Houston has gone under in five of its last seven road games while Oakland has cashed under tickets in nine of its last 11 games at The Black Hole. Go under.
Bob Balfe
Buffalo Bills -1
The general public is giving these Dolphins too much credit after that New England win. The truth is Brady and that offensive line was lost and the New England Defense couldn’t stop the run. Last year the Dolphins need a win to get into the playoffs. They put up about 100 total yards on offense to this very same Bills team. Both teams are more or less the same with their skilled players from last year, but the Dolphins have an entirely new offensive line going to play a road game. Miami will also be without their middle linebacker today. I think this team is going to do well, but they are highly over hyped. Buffalo has a lot more speed than New England and should get the home win. Take the Bills.
NFL Predictions
Cincinnati Bengals –5.5
Let down spot on the road here for the Falcons. Atlanta edged past the Saints at home last week in an overtime thriller, but the key word there is at HOME. What we have in this matchup is the best home team in 2013, a perfect 8-0 for the Bengals. Conversely, the Falcons were 1-7 on the road. Cincinnati won’t be as comfy as the dome is in Atlanta. The Bengals should be able to minimize the running game of the Falcons. They have an underrated defense that often gets overlooked. However, the Bengals were 3rd in overall defense last season, allowing only 305.5 yards per game. Better than such teams as the 49ers and Cardinals. They also allowed only 209 passing yards a game. Note that left tackles Jake Matthews and Sam Baker will be absent from this game, leaving the door open against a fierce Bengals’ pass rush. Andy Dalton and AJ Green will be able to open the offense up against the porous Falcons’ D. They allowed 27.7 points a game last year and were up to the same in week 1 giving up 34 to the Saints at home. The public will most likely be the on the Falcons after watching them beat New Orleans last week, but don’t be fooled, they are playing against a very good Bengals team on the road, a place where it is night and day compared to at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +118 over TORONTO (1st 5 innings)
The Rays bullpen is awful. If you bet on the Rays and you see Grant Balfour warming up late in the game and the Rays have a lead, be prepared to sweat it out or rip up your ticket. It’s for that reason we are eliminating the Rays pen and playing Tampa in the first five. Chris Archer against Mark Buehrle is a huge pitching mismatch in Archer’s favor. Archer comes in with a 3.63 ERA with 155 K’s in 173 innings. When he’s on and throwing strikes he can be nasty. Archer showed his youth when he struggled with his control in the first half but he’s been better after the break. With groundball % bent and dominance vs RHB, this is one to invest in.
Mark Buehrle was hammered by the Cubs in his last start. Every ball was torched but Buehlre got extremely lucky with many balls being hit right at people. He allowed 10 hits in 7 innings and the Cubbies left 11 men on base. Buehrle was pitching with two men on base just about every inning. Buehrle pitching with men on base is nothing new. His WHIP over his last 30 innings is 1.62. He will put the ball in play and he won’t miss many bats. If he gets lucky again, so be it, but if he doesn’t, he’s likely going to give up five or more and that makes him and the Jays a great value fade.
Doug Upstone
Seahawks vs. Chargers
Play: Under 44½
Play Under on teams like San Diego when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, who were a terrible passing defense from last season allowed 255 or more passing yards a game. How this NFL system works is teams will work hard for the following season to improve on their weaknesses and in the Chargers case this would be the pass defense. In the past four years, teams like the Bolts are 27-5 UNDER in this exact situation.
Nick Parsons
Houston vs. Oakland
Play: Under 40
This is a play against two mediocre quarterbacks and on one great defense. I have no faith in Fitzpatrick leading a flag football team nor do I think the rookie Carr can do anything against the Texan’s defense.
Houston (1-0) sacked Redskin’s quarterback Robert Griffin III three times, recovered two second-half fumbles and held the hapless Washington offense scoreless over the final 39 minutes in a 17-6 victory.
The D id led by J.J. Watt. Watt had one sack, two tackles for loss, five quarterback hits, one blocked extra point and one fumble recovery. I could see better stats against Carr and the horrendous Raiders Offense.
The Raiders lost 19-14 road loss to the Jets last Sunday. Oakland was held to 158 last weekend with 25 yards on 15 carries and just 72 passing until scoring on its final drive. They were breaking in a new offensive line, which did little for the offense. Maurice Jones-Drew could manage only eleven yards on nine carries. Quarterback Derek Carr had little time to pass and completed only 20 of 32 passes for 151 yards and two touchdowns. Only three of those completions traveled over ten yards downfield.
Their defense didn’t help much either. Against the Jets 212 yards on the ground in the loss. Expect to see the Texans give the ball early and often to Arian Foster to control the game and take the pressure off of Fitzpatrick.
I can’t see Oakland scoring a lot on offense and the Texans will do just enough to win. I see a very low scoring game so I am playing on the Under.
Joe Gavazzi
NY Jets vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -7½
The Jets were statistically dominant in their 19-14 victory over Oakland, a win/tie/loss ATS result, depending on whether Fly Boy backers were avid shoppers. The Jets outrushed the Raiders 34/212 to 15/25 in accumulating a 402-158 yardage edge. A -2 net TO margin was the compromising factor. Nonetheless, they must be a bit fat as they enter this contest after such a dominant win. Their questionable secondary will receive a much stronger test from QB Rodgers and company. Green Bay has had 10 days to lick their wounds following the 36-16 debacle at Seattle in the Thursday night opener. The 37/207 to 21/80 deficit at the point of attack leaves much to be desired. Must note, however, that Green Bay is a long-term 23-14 ATS as home chalk and 14-4 ATS following a defeat of late! Favor the bounce back vs. letdown concept as opposed to the momentum underdog.
Brady Kannon
Atlanta Falcons +5.5
The Falcons pulled out a thrilling victory last Sunday over New Orleans in what is becoming an excellent NFL rivalry from a viewing standpoint. There is certainly a school of thought here that Atlanta might let down a bit this week after its big game with The Saints but rather I think they come in with momentum. They missed the playoffs for the first time last year in the Mike Smith era and I feel they are hard pressed to prove that was a fluke. We know The Falcons have always been a pretty solid team as of late and always have a great deal of talent. After a very disappointing season last year, they are a team I expect to come back up the ladder.
The Bengals are also a team with a ton of talent but they had real struggles in the Red Zone last week at Baltimore and if not for Joe Flacco playing horribly and turning the ball over, Cincinnati may have not been so fortunate. Andy Dalton's offense only converted on 3rd down just over 28% of the time. Now, the defense was stout but The Falcons counter with an offense that gained a league high 8.2 yards per play against a very solid Saints defense. Atlanta's lack of defense scares me a bit but if The Bengals continue to sputter on offense, we'll be in great shape here today in The Queen City.
Two things I like here in the way of the trends.. The Falcons take care of business out of conference, going 5-and-1 ATS when off of a SU victory as an underdog. Also, it might be The Bengals who let down here today as they are just 1-and-4 ATS in games after playing The Ravens.. because The Ravens are a division foe and an extremely physical team. Cincy may be beat up just enough from last week's test, to give us the edge we need.
I think this is a Field Goal game. Grab the points as 5.5 is too much in my opinion.
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks laying road chalk in San Diego against the Chargers.
The Seahawks opened their campaign with a dominating 20-point win against the Green Bay Packers, and lest we forget that was the Thursday night spotlight game that features the defending Super Bowl champ every year, to kickoff the season. Thus, Seattle has had extra time to prepare for this game. Meanwhile, the Chargers blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead and lost 18-17 at the Arizona Cardinals - a late Sunday game - and now host the 'Hawks.
The Chargers have to be concerned with how a couple aspects of this Seattle's offense, including Russell Wilson's passing and scrambling and the running game of Marshawn Lynch. The dual threat leads a very dangerous attack that can strike quickly, and often.
As for the defense, well, when you have a Seattle team that beat Green Bay by 20 on a night Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers didn't even throw in the vicinty of Richard Sherman, I'm pretty sure that tells you how dangerous this stop unit can be.
Even on the road, I'm siding with the Seahawks here.
5♦ SEATTLE
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Tennessee Titans over the hapless Dallas Cowboys. At the time of this writing, the Titans are 3 to 3 1/2 point home favorites.
Dallas sucks.
I don't know how else to say it. It's hard to say being a Cowboys fan, but they are terrible. They have trouble holding onto the ball, they have trouble in the red zone, they have trouble stopping people... they're a complete mess.
When I did my initial analysis of all of these games, I had the Titans -5 in this game, so for those of my friends who were telling me they were "shocked the Titans were favored by three points"... I think you're the crazy ones.
Tennessee's defense surprised me last week after a horrendous pre-season in which it looked like they would be absolutely awful. However, the Chiefs looked as if they had no clue how to counter what the Titans were doing... and that's with one of the most dynamic playmakers in all of football (Jamaal Charles).
Granted, I think Dallas's offense will pose a greater challenge than Kansas City did last week, but I also believe the Dallas defense is worse than Kansas City's.
Believe it or not, this might be a high scoring game... and a game that I think the Titans will control throughout.
Take Tennessee as your free play of the day.
4♦ TENNESSEE