Mike O'ConnorFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami (+2.5) 20 over INDIANAPOLIS 21SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dolphins enter this contest off of a 23-10 win at Cleveland last week in a defensive struggle as they gave up just 291 yards at 4.0 yards per play while generating 6 sacks and 3 turnovers. Offensively they were terrible running the ball with just 21 rushing yards at 1.1 yards per rush as the OL and the RB’s were equally unimpressive. They only had 7 yards rushing at halftime and essentially gave up on the run late in the game. They did, however, pass the ball fairly well as QB Ryan Tannehill completed 24 of 38 for 255 yards as he was their only real offense.
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Indianapolis was fortunate to beat a game Raiders team as a last minute INT near the goal line sealed the victory. Otherwise, it was a pedestrian like performance as they were unimpressive statistically gaining just 275 yards at 5.4 yards per play. QB Luck was efficient, hitting on 78% of his mainly short passes for 147 yards while the run game was very good in gaining 128 yards and 5.1 yards per carry. The OL did not protect Luck very well but were much better creating room in the run game. Keep in mind; this was against an Oakland defense that was fielding 9 new starters. Defensively, the Colts gave up 372 yards at 5.9 yards per play and had a difficult time containing QB Pryor who ran for 112 on only 13 carries. This sort of performance was par for the course for the Colts last year as they were continuously outperformed statistically but won 11 games nonetheless.
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I show some value on the Dolphins in this game as I have it lined around 1 and I have situations going both ways here. Matchup analysis forecasts the Dolphins having an edge passing the ball on the Colts with minimal rushing success while the Colts should also be able to pass the ball, with less success than the Dolphins, and not be able to run the ball very well. Dr. Bob has also contributed a 48-16 Under situation that applies to this game as long as the total stays below 43. I lean with the Dolphins and the Under.
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HOUSTON (-9.5) 28 over Tennessee 17FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Titans enter Week 2 off of a 16-9 victory in Pittsburgh that was dominated by defense on both sides. There were only 428 total yards gained in this game for both teams combined for an average of 3.75 yards per play. The Titans took advantage of a banged up Steelers offensive line with 5 sacks and forced 2 turnovers. When Pro Bowl C Maurkice Pouncey left the game with a knee injury in the first quarter, 2nd year player Kevin Beachum took over and forced a shift in scheme that limited their ability to run the ball. To their credit, the Titans played a mistake free game on offense with no turnovers and only 1 sack given up.
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The Texans opened the season with a second half come from behind victory against the San Diego Chargers on Monday night in a game where they trailed by 21 points in the third quarter. They outplayed the Chargers from the line of scrimmage and made big plays when they needed them, especially late in the game. On offense they demonstrated balance with the ability to run and pass with QB Matt Schaub having a very good night completing over 75% of his passes for 7.0 yards per pass.
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This is a divisional game and as such these teams know each other well. In fact, Tennessee OC Loggains has instituted an offensive scheme that is very similar to the Texans. From a matchup perspective, Houston projects to have a significant advantage in the passing game, with both teams having about average rushing success. My line on this game favors Houston by about 8 points which shows some live value on the Titans but the Texans qualify in a 60-17-2 situation which is enough for me to lean with the Texans minus the points.
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Cleveland (+6.5) 19 BALTIMORE 23FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Browns come into this contest off of a 23-10 home loss to the Miami Dolphins in a game that featured great rush defense on both sides. The Browns held the Dolphins to .9 yards per carry for the game and made them one dimensional offensively in the second half after holding them to just 7 yards rushing at halftime. I thought that Brandon Weeden didn’t play as poorly as his stats suggest. Two of his INT’s were tipped, and the right side of his offensive line was terrible, allowing Cameron Wake three sacks and being flagged for multiple penalties, one of which brought back a touchdown.
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Baltimore enters this contest off the Thursday Night 2013 season kick off game against the Broncos where they were destroyed in the second half, being outscored 35-10 after leading 17-14 at halftime. When all was said and done, they allowed Peyton Manning to throw for 7 TD’s and tie the NFL record for TD passes in a game. Their defense was terrible and their offense was not a lot better as Joe Flacco clearly misses WR Anquan Boldin and TE Dennis Pitta. In addition, the Ravens did not rush the ball well, totaling just 58 yards at 2.8 yards per carry. Without the threat of a run game and injuries to OT Michael Oher and WR Jacoby Jones, the Ravens offense struggled.
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Baltimore qualifies in a very good play against situation here that is 47-107-3 (5-29 the last 7 years) and a subset that is 29-82-2. In addition, Dr. Bob was nice enough to pass along a strong 28-5 situation that plays on the Browns, further bolstering their technical support. What I don’t like in this game, however, are a few things: John Harbaugh is very good when given time to prepare and off a loss, the Ravens are playing their home opener after their Super Bowl victory, and a bad matchup with the Browns offensive line that gave up 6 sacks last week now faces Suggs, Dumervil, and an angry Ravens team that was embarrassed last week. I lean to the Browns based on the strong situational support.
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Washington (+7) 24 GREEN BAY 28FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Redskins opened the season at home with the return of QB Robert Griffin and lots of excitement but were quickly shocked by the pace and scope of the Eagles offense. After a backwards pass by Michael Vick that was returned for a Redskins TD to start the game, the Eagles outscored the Redskins 26-0 the rest of the first half. Griffin was clearly rusty in the early going and the Eagles game planned around shutting down RB Alfred Morris as they correctly expected the Redskins wouldn’t put Griffin at risk. Once Washington was able to get their bearings, the mounted a comeback to get back in the game but ultimately could not close the sizable gap that they ended the first half with.
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The Packers hung tough with the 49ers in Candlestick Park and while they clearly executed their defensive game plan of shutting down the run (90 yards and 2.6 yards per carry) the 49ers passing game was the difference in the game. Colin Kaepernick was excellent passing the ball (69.3% completions for over 400 yards) and WR Anquan Boldin could not be stopped, making big plays even while being double covered. They were, however, without the key communicator of their defense and most experienced safety, Morgan Burnett as well as CB Casey Hayward.
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With both teams coming off of Week 1 losses and high expectations for 2013 there will be a focused effort by both clubs. The Packers studied defense of the read option in the offseason after being shredded in the playoffs by the 49ers last year and knowing that they would open the season with San Francisco and Washington in the first two weeks. They should be well prepared to defend it here and combined with a limited risk scheme that the Redskins will continue to employ in regards to Robert Griffin, the matchup favors the Packers. There is also a lack of both skill and experience in the Redskins secondary and I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to exploit that weakness here. I do, however, have a good 60-17-2 situation that plays on the Redskins in this spot and coupled with the fact that Green Bay demonstrated poor coverage last week and the large number, I will lean slightly with the Redskins plus the points.
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KANSAS CITY (-3) 24 Dallas 17FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cowboys opened the season with a big divisional win on Sunday night versus the Giants in a game that was handed to them via 6 Giants turnovers. The Giants won the statistical battle with a big play passing offense (479 total yards and 8.3 yards per play) but lost the important battle on the scoreboard by turning the ball over repeatedly. Tony Romo threw the ball efficiently and effectively (73.5% on 49 attempts for 244 yards) as the Cowboys did enough to pull out a victory. They did leave the game a bit banged up though, as Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and CB Morris Claiborne suffered injuries.
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Kansas City had a much easier time in dismantling a poor Jacksonville team 28-2. It was a dominant defensive performance as new DC Bob Sutton’s pressure scheme completely shut down the Jaguars offense (178 total yards at 2.5 yards per play with 6 sacks and 2 INTs). Offensively, the Chiefs were efficient in utilizing a very good running game and short passing attack while committing no turnovers with only 1 sack.
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Matchup analysis shows the Chiefs with a rushing advantage while both teams should be able to pass the ball efficiently. I have the Chiefs favored in this game by 4 points but don’t have any systems that apply. New Chiefs HC Andy Reid also knows the opponent in this game very well, having played against them twice a year for the past 14 years as HC of the Eagles. Even with a homecoming looming in Philadelphia next Thursday night for the Chiefs new HC, I think that he will have his team energized and focused here in front of the home crowd for the first time this season so I will lean with the Chiefs.
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Minnesota (+6) 20 CHICAGO 21FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota comes into this game after a terrible performance against the Lions in a game that they should have lost by more than the final 10 point margin. Christian Ponder played poorly, and a dominant Lions DL completely shut down Adrian Peterson after the initial 78 yard TD run on his first carry. In fact, after that first run AP only had 17 carries for 15 yards and was a complete non-factor. Reviewing the game I was shocked at how badly Ponder played, making both poor decisions and poor throws with a lack of confidence in his reads. Throwing an interception once every 9.3 attempts isn’t going to cut it. I do think part of it was the fact that he is playing against a much improved Lions defense, but this was just a bad showing. The Lions moved up and down the field (478 total yards and 6.4 yards per play) and would have scored more if not for a dropped wide open pass inside the Minnesota 10 yard line, a fumbled FG snap and a ball that Ponder threw that was dropped by the defender that would have likely been a pick 6.
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The Bears were fortunate in beating the Bengals at home, coming back from an 11 point deficit midway through the 3rd quarter, but showed improvement in some important areas in Marc Trestmans first game as HC. The Bears run game was shut down but QB Jay Cutler played a smart game, making generally good decisions and getting rid of the ball quickly. The offensive line looks to be improved and should only get better with more reps as they have 4 new pieces in place, including 2 rookies on the right side. The defense was very good in shutting down the run, but let Andy Dalton complete 78.8% of his passes and throw for 277 yards. They did however benefit from a +2 turnover margin, intercepting Dalton twice and recovering a fumble.
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Matchup analysis suggests a good passing advantage for the Bears both offensively and on defense, while the Vikings should have the advantage on the ground. My number on this game is Chicago -8 but the Vikings apply to a good 60-17-2 situation that plays on them here. I also believe that the Bears OL will have its hands full with good Minnesota DE’s Allen and Robison and with DT Kevin Williams coming back from injury. Dr. Bob was kind enough to add a 48-16 Under situation that applies here as long as the total stays below 43. It is also interesting to note that former Bears LT J’Marcus Webb is now with the Vikings after being cut by the Bears at the end of preseason and may be able to provide some useful intelligence on the Bears. I like the Vikings here.
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St. Louis (+6.5) 23 ATLANTA 24FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rams come into Atlanta off of a hard fought 27-24 home divisional win versus the Cardinals in a game in which they trailed by 11 points in the 4th quarter. The game was closely matched in just about every area; points, yards, yards per play and turnovers. The one statistical difference that was significant was the 4-0 sack differential in favor of the Rams. This wasn’t surprising as the Rams were one of the league leaders in sacks last year (and the Cardinals the worst in surrendering them), but the bulk of the damage was done by DE Quinn, who registered 3 on his own and forced 2 fumbles. On offense, the Rams couldn’t generate much rushing the ball, but QB Bradford had some success in the air with new receiving weapons TE Cook and WR Austin combining for about half of his completions.
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Atlanta walked into a hornets nest in New Orleans and faced an inspired football team with its coach back and a new defensive coordinator ready to attack in Rob Ryan. It’s not surprising that nearly 800 yards of combined offense was generated, but it was a bit surprising that only 40 points were scored. Both teams passed the ball well with minimal rushing impact as both teams ran for less than 90 yards. The pass protection for the Falcons looks like it could be a problem as the Saints registered 3 sacks and otherwise pressured Ryan on numerous other occasions. When they did choose to rush the ball, the Falcons were effective as they ran for 6.3 yards per carry (on only 14 attempts).
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Jeff Fisher teams are historically very good as underdogs (82-56 ATS including 11-3 in 2012) and are facing an Atlanta team that may have some issues protecting QB Matt Ryan. In addition, I have a couple of very good situations that play against the Falcons here that are 25-69-4 and 47-107-3 (5-29 the last 7 years). My line on this game shows some value on the Rams as well. I am aware of the fact that the Falcons are very good off of a loss (18-5-1 ATS) recently and play well at home. When those two are combined we see that Mike Smith is 11-4-1 ATS at home off a loss, and while that is a good record it is still not as good as Jeff Fishers overall underdog record. I like the Rams plus the points.
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TAMPA BAY (+3) 24 New Orleans 21FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Saints enter this game coming off of a season opening 23-17 home win against the Falcons where HC Sean Payton celebrated his return after his year-long suspension. The win came in dramatic fashion as the Falcons had a chance to win it at the end but couldn’t pull it out after a dropped Steven Jackson 3rd down pass and an interception on 4th down. New Orleans, as expected, passed the ball well but surprisingly struggled a bit in the running game. On defense they pressured Matt Ryan behind a subpar offensive line, but generally looked more active and executed much better than last year. They did, however, benefit from a hobbled WR Roddy White and the absence of CB Asante Samuel on defense.
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Tampa Bay surprisingly struggled against the Jets last week, eventually losing a game that they had in their grasp 18-17 on a terrible defensive penalty that set the Jets up for a FG to win it. The offense looked out of sorts, the running game was stuffed (only 65 yards at 2.6 YPC), and there appeared to be some problems on the sideline with LT Donald Penn and QB Josh Freeman. The Jets defensive line is very good and combined with a good game-plan they shut down the Bucs offense, holding them to only 250 total yards and 4.2 yards per play. On defense, they played fairly well against a below average Jets offense, holding them to 304 yards and 4.2 yards per play.
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The Bucs come into this game with the value meter pointed clearly down by the media based on their Week 1 disaster in New York. The Saints, on the other hand, are back to being the Saints by beating the Falcons last week and their value meter is clearly trending up based on public perception and media coverage. There are still some problems on this defense with a few more key players getting banged up in last week’s win as they continue to transition into Rob Ryan’s new scheme. The last time these two teams played last December in New Orleans, the Saints dominated the Bucs in a 41-0 blowout. As a result the Bucs will be a little more focused in this game. It is also possible that the Saints, who are coming off a huge win, may let down a bit. In addition, I have a couple of good situations that play on the Bucs that are 42-16 and 41-13 and my line on this game shows a couple of points worth of value on the Bucs. I like Tampa Bay plus the points.
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Detroit (-1.5) 24 ARIZONA 19FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Lions come into this game looking very impressive to my eyes in beating the Vikings 34-24. The final score could have been a lot worse and the Lions team as a whole seems to have improved from last year. The addition of Reggie Bush and his ability to create in space were evident last week with 191 total yards on 4 receptions and 21 carries. The Lions seemed to move easily at times down the field with a good run/pass mix. Defensively, the Lions are very strong up front and with a good rotation they are able to keep players fresh. On the back end, they have also improved with a healthy Louis Delmas and Glover Quin at the safety positions.
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The Cardinals were another team that impressed me and seem improved, as I did not have very high aspirations for this team entering the year. They certainly still have limitations and that begins with their offensive line, which is not very good. LT Levi Brown was exposed last week and overall the line gave up 4 sacks and multiple pressures. Carson Palmer did a very good job despite the lack of a running game and poor offensive line play, completing 26 of 40 for over 300 yards. He clearly is a huge upgrade over last year and gives the offensive unit an entirely different feel. Defensively, the Cards played well in shutting down the run (67 yards and 2.8 yards per carry) but had some issues in their pass defense as Sam Bradford completed 71% of his passes for nearly 300 yards.
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Matchup analysis projects the Lions with a good passing advantage overall, but particularly on offense. The Cardinals shouldn’t be able to run the ball at all here against a stout defensive front while the Lions should have around league average success on the ground. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game and have it lined at Lions -1.5. Last season the Lions came to Arizona as a 5.5 point favorite and got crushed 38-10. The Lions are much improved this year, have a big advantage on the DL, and certainly remember last year’s beating. That is enough for me to lean to the Lions minus the points.
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Jacksonville (+5.5) 16 OAKLAND 20FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jaguars come into this game having been embarrassed by a terrible beating last week at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs. The offensive performance was abysmal, particularly the passing game where the Jags threw 41 times, completed 19 and gained just 107 yards (sack yardage taken out) while being sacked 6 times and turning the ball over twice. This week QB Chad Henne takes over for Blaine Gabbert and should provide some form of improvement if for no other reason than it can’t get any worse. It did get better defensively, at least statistically, as the Jags held the Chiefs to 293 total yards and 4.8 yards per play.
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Oakland played much better than many, including myself, expected in losing on a last minute interception down near the goal line with a chance to beat the Colts in Indy. Outside of his two interceptions Pryor player well, completing 19 of 29 passes for 201 yards while rushing for over 100 yards. The rush game outside of Pryor was not good with Darren McFadden repeatedly diving into the line 17 times for 48 yards. The offensive line played better than expected with all of the changes and receivers D. Moore and Rod Streater also played well. Despite 9 new starters the defense played was impressive in holding the Colts offense to 275 total yards at 5.4 yards per play.
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My number on this game is Oakland -6 so the line seems to be fair. Matchup analysis shows a significant advantage in the passing game both offensively and defensively for the Raiders with both teams being able to run the ball fairly well. I don’t have any situations on this game but Dr. Bob was nice enough to supply a good 28-5 system that plays here on the Jaguars as well as a 115-62-8 Under situation that applies if the total remains below 40. I don’t have a strong opinion either way on this game so I will side with the situations and lean to the Jaguars and the Under.
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San Francisco (+3 -120) 21 SEATTLE 23FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The 49ers began the season with a 34-28 home win over the Packers last week in a game that featured very good passing offense and very good rushing defense by both teams. The 49ers posted 494 yards, much of that attributable to Kaepernick’s 404 passing yards. He did play against a beat up secondary that was missing several key players, but it was clear that the 49ers game plan included attacking through the air, especially in the middle of the field. The 49ers also did a good job on defense, containing the Packers no-huddle offense with 5 three and outs, 2 turnovers and limiting their rushing game to just 63 yards at 3.3 yards per carry.
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The Seahawks beat the 10AM PST curse that they had been under previously (19-34 over 12 seasons in 10AM PST start time games) in holding off the Panthers in a low scoring 12-7 victory. Seattle QB Russell Wilson carried over into 2013 his continued trend of impressive games that got better as the year progressed in 2012. What was more impressive is that he did it without much of a running game as the Panthers held Seattle to 73 yards and 3.2 yards per carry. The Seahawk defense held Carolina’s passing offense in check but as mentioned last week, it can be susceptible to the run and allowed 124 yards at 5 yards per carry in that game. That does not bode well in a matchup with one of the best rushing teams in the NFL in the San Francisco 49ers.
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Last year these teams split with the Seahawks losing in San Francisco on a Thursday night in October by the score of 13-6. They got their revenge in a big way on December 23rd, crushing the 49ers in Seattle 42-13. The 49ers certainly remember that game and I believe are a more talented team overall than the Seahawks. The better team doesn’t always win games though, especially in Seattle which offers one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. I don’t have any situations on this game but matchup analysis projects the 49ers with a solid rushing advantage on both sides of the ball. The Seahawks, according to my matchup calculations, will have the passing advantage in this game and overall my numbers favor the Seahawks by around 4. I don’t feel strongly either way but it should be a great game to watch and I will lean slightly with the 49ers based on their ability to run the ball and stop the run.
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Pittsburgh (+6.5) 17 CINCINNATI 20FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Steelers come off a bad performance against the Tennessee Titans that saw them lose the game but also lose several key players as C Maurkice Pouncey and LB Larry Foote were both lost for the season with injuries. The Steelers were held on offense to only 195 yards at 3.7 yards per play with only 32 yards rushing and 2.1 yards per carry. On defense they played typical Steelers football, holding the Titans to 233 yards at 3.8 yards per play but not forcing any turnovers while giving away 2 themselves.
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The Bengals lost a tough game versus the Bears last week with overall stats that were very close but just like the Steelers they lost the turnover battle by 2. They enter this game having split the series last year, losing at home 24-17 and beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh 13-10. Matchup analysis shows a defensive struggle with neither team having the ability to move the ball very well. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game and my line is Bengals -7 so this game to me is really a toss-up. I will lean to the Steelers plus the points and the Under.
River City Sports
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Play: Indianapolis Colts -2.5
This is the second in road back to back games for Dolphins, who beat the browns in Cleveland last weekend. Last year, the Colts were able to escape with a 23-20 victory and we anticipate a similar style to this game. Ryan Tannehill played pretty well last week against the Browns, considering he had virtually no running game to help him. He will find the defense much tougher this week against the Colts, who hold a big HF advantage at the Dome. Andrew Luck played well LW against the Raiders and had to manage to bring them back to avoid the upset. Colts have won 8 of last 11 ATS at the Dome and we like that to continue here against a road-weary Dolphins team.
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Miami vs. IndianapolisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We’re normally not much for backing road teams off an ‘inside-out’ road win the previous week but this looks more to be a play ‘against’ the Colts than one on the Dolphins. After witnessing the Fish close and upfront during the offseason down here in South Florida, we can inform you the team’s defense is the real-deal. It will keep them in games they have no business being in (read: last week in Cleveland) and will be covering up for an offense that is nowhere close to being playoff caliber. That being said, Indy continues to win games with smoke and mirrors (outgained last six games) and has allowed more yards than its gained in its last 18 games despite a 12-6 mark behind Andrew Luck. Yes, sometimes it’s better to have Luck on your side but eventually you’re going to have to win games the old fashioned way – on the field – if you are to be taken seriously. Last year Indy raced past Miami, 23-20, on this field as a 2.5-point home dog, a game in which the Colts actually won the stats, 516-365. It’s our feeling they won’t sniff 500 yards against this defense. With Joe Philbin 6-1-1 ATS as a single-digit dog, and 15-3 ATS as a road dog off a win, revenge works Miami’s way today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.
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Cleveland vs. BaltimoreFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We played on the Browns last week and they fell to Miami 23-10 despite outgaining the Dolphins by 16 total yards. Turnovers were the issue as quarterback Brandon Weeden tossed three picks but I expect a better game out of him this week. I also expect a better gameplan. The game was close until late in the fourth quarter yet Cleveland threw the ball 53 times compared to running it just 13 times. Trent Richardson is more valuable than that and he needs more touches. Balance will be the key against a Baltimore defense that was lit up last week. The Ravens have had some extra time to get ready for this game following their blowout loss at Denver a week ago this past Thursday. It was a close game for a while but Denver was able to pull away early in the third quarter thanks to a record setting performance from Peyton Manning. Now Baltimore heads home for the first time as reigning Super Bowl Champions and while the atmosphere will be electric, I do not think they Ravens have what it takes yet to win big here. The biggest liability now for Baltimore on offense is its passing game. Gone is wide receiver Anquan Boldin, they are without tight end Dennis Pitta, and Jacoby Jones, who was signed to a big deal in the offseason, is out for several weeks with an injury. The only threat that the Ravens have right now is Torrey Smith and cornerback Joe Haden will be blanketing him all day. Running back Ray Rice will be asked to make up for it but the Browns clamped down on Miami's running game, allowing just 20 yards on 23 carries (0.9 ypc). This is a very underrated defense in my opinion. Looking at history, the Browns have not had much success in this series of late as the Ravens have won all 10 games against the Browns under coach Jim Harbaugh while sporting a plus-14 turnover margin. Cleveland has been a very good bounce back team as it is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games following a loss. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. I expect this line to go up as we get closer to kickoff after coming down from the opening so while we are catching a solid number now, waiting it out is not going to hurt.
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Cleveland vs. BaltimoreFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last week's free play was on Under Cleveland and I'll go the same way this week as this time the Browns match up against a more familiar foe, the Baltimore Ravens. The Super Bowl Champs will be eager to atone for last week's embarrassing performance against Peyton Manning and the Broncos.
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Here are my keys to the game:FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. What Happened Last Week - It was a case of new regime, but same old result for Cleveland as they were held to only 10 points by the Miami Dolphins. QB Brandon Weeden threw three first half interceptions. For the game, the Browns gained only 291 total yards. New offensive coordinator Norv Turner seemed to abandon the run with Trent Richardson way too early (just 13 rushes the whole game!), which is troubling. Baltimore has a lot of new faces on defense, but it's still a proud group and like I said they will want to atone for getting "lit up" by Peyton Manning, who threw for seven touchdowns. Needless to say, it will be a lot easier this week facing Weeden, who has arguably the worst receiving corps in the league to throw to.
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2. Series History - These teams have gone Under in each of the previous five matchups. Baltimore has beaten Cleveland 10 straight times, holding them to 15, 16, 14, 10, 10, 17, 0, 3, 27 and 10 points. That's an average of just 11.2 points per game!
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3. X-Factor - Cleveland is 11-1 Under after scoring 14 or less points in their previous game.
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Miami vs. IndianapolisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indianapolis is now 0-1 ATS as a favorite, and while they won another close game last Sunday, the Colts are surviving on borrowed time. We see another good opportunity to fade the overrated Colts so shop around and get the best number on the underdog Dolphins.
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The Dolphins got a workmanlike 23-10 win last week as they were in a defensive grinder with Cleveland. The Browns have a sneaky good defense this season so we’re willing to give Miami a pass for their minimal offensive production last week. The Dolphins were unable to run the ball (20 yards total), but there’s a high likelihood that Miami’s running game will get going this week. Indianapolis’ defense was gouged on the ground by the Raiders. The Colts allowed 171 rushing yards on 33 carries. That’s a whopping 5.2 yards per rush so Miami’s running game should produce much better numbers in this game.
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The Colts were out-played by the Raiders last Sunday and Indianapolis should have lost that game. They were out-yarded 372-274 by a bad Oakland team with a terrible offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback. That win and failed pointspread cover by the Colts came as no surprise as we played against the overrated Colts and took the Raiders plus the generous points in this spot last week. Miami is now 7-2 ATS as a single digit underdog under HC Philbin. They went 6-2 ATS in this role last season, and they won and covered as 2.5-point underdogs last week in Cleveland. Indianapolis is now 0-1 ATS as a favorite, and while they won another close game last Sunday, the Colts are surviving on borrowed time. We see another good opportunity to fade the overrated Colts so shop around and get the best number on the underdog Dolphins.
Sean Higgs
Washington Redskins vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -7
With both teams in off losses, we should expect a battle. As I look at this game a couple things jump out at me. We are going to start with the Redskins off their Monday Night Football loss. I thought that if RGIII was under center, his health wouldn’t be the question. And I don’t think it was. The problem was he looked out of sync early. Add in running back Alfred Morris’ stone-hands and the Redskins never recovered from a self-inflicted would. What really worries me is the defense. I know this was a ‘new’ offense under former Oregon HC Chip Kelly. I really did not think that a college offense would take be successful. Now, this isn’t the wildcat fad of a few years back. This is an entire system, not running direct snaps 6 times a game. The Washington defense was not up to the task. I know Philly had revenge from last year, but in a MNF home opener, I would think at least part of the team would show up.
The Green Bay Packers are also off loss. Not sure how they feel about the NFL saying the officials made a mistake that possibly cost them a shot at a win. But I can pretty much be 100% sure that they are going to come out like gang-busters here in their home opener. As the season progresses, I rarely make statements like this. But, I will do it now in week 2. If the Redskins had trouble at home with Vick, how are they going to regroup on a short week and handle Aaron Rodgers off a loss? Again, I am not from the school of what happens 1 week automatically carries over to the next. I know people will be down on the Redskins, and that the Packers are the better team and should win. This defense just allowed nearly 500 yards. They will be looking to make a statement at home that they are better than that.
My Final Thoughts –
As I write this review the Packers are being favored by less than a TD. Obviously, if you are a GB backer you will want to jump all over this number. Something tells me though that this line is going to move up and probably rather quickly. With a tough road game up next at Cincinnati, the Packers are in no position to overlook any team. Coupled with the fact that Redskins are on a short week, plus off a tough divisional game, I am going to back the GREEN BAY PACKERS at this price.
Steve Janus
Indianapolis Colts -2
No one expected the Raiders to come out an play as well as they did in Week 1. Not to say the Colts weren’t motivated for the season opener, I’m not 100% convinced that Oakland had their full attention. I don’t think they were ready to chase around Terrell Pryor, who was the only thing that kept the Raiders in that game. Pryor had 112 of the 171 yards rushing for the Raiders. Star running back Darren McFadden was held to just 48 yards on 17 attempts (2.8 ypc). Miami’s duo of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas combined for just 17 yards on 18 attempts. Even the Colts suspect run defense should be able to slow down Miami’s lackluster running game.
If you watched the Colts last year you wouldn’t be worried about their poor showing against the Raiders. This team didn’t win pretty in the majority of their games. The thing you should be focusing on is that they won the game and are now 8-1 at home with Luck as their starting quarterback. There clearly seems to be a lot of value on the Colts laying less than a field goal against a Miami team that I think is getting too much credit for beating a bad football team. Indy should be a lot more focused this week and it’s nice to see that they are 6-1 ATS following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a winning road record.
You also have to remember that it’s difficult to win on the road and even harder to do so in back-to-back weeks, especially for a mediocre team like the Dolphins who are just hoping to make the playoffs. The fact that Miami is just 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games following an upset win as an underdog adds even more value on the home team laying just 2-points.
Jamie Tursini
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Play: Seattle Seahawks -2½
Here's a classic example in the line as an overreaction to Week 1. The 49ers played at home vs a Packer team that will struggle on defense all season like last. And their defense will not be as good as last year. The Seahawks clearly (believe it or not) were looking ahead to this match up and past the Panthers in Week 1. And may have let the pre-season predictions (many had them #1) get to their heads.
The Seahawks have the best home field advantage in the NFL, and at home Sunday night this place will be hopping. The number should be Seattle -4 to 4.5. But remember the books are looking for two-way even action. If that was the number, 49er money would be one-sided and rightfully so. So lay less than a FG and reap the rewards afterwards.
Chip Chirimbes
Cleveland Browns +7
The Super Bowl champs could not have asked for a better home opponent in need of their first win as the Cleveland Browns come to Baltimore. The history of these two off the field is one for the book but the Ravens have defeated the upstart Browns 10 straight time. Why am I not surprised the Browns only scored 10 points last week and then I realize they have a new offensive coordinator Norv Turner. The problem for the Ravens is that they do and will miss the dearly departed who either retired or left for greener pastures but their talent level has dropped. Look for the Browns to keep this one close.
Joseph D'Amico
Chicago Bears -5½
Minnesota plays their 2nd straight Divisional road game. QB, Christian Ponder threw 3 interceptions while the Vikes blew an 8-pt lead in week 1. The Bears were the NFL's top takeaway team a season ago and started this year with 3 more in their victory over the Bengals last week. More importantly, Chicago's OL did not allow a sack against a talented Cincy defensive front-7. I must side with Chicago here.
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Denver Broncos at New York GiantsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New York GiantsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is one week the Broncos are happy to be on the road with all the rain and flooding in Northern Colorado. This matchup is even more special as it's Peyton Manning vs little brother Eli Manning. Is this a must win spot for the Giants? Could be, but not quite yet. If this was a division game then the stakes would be much higher. Denver is missing two of it's biggest defensive players in LB Von Miller and CB Champ Bailey. The Giants need to exploit this and score first. On defense the Giants need to pray, they are thin at linebacker and their secondary isn't much better. The only bright spot about last week's loss is that the Giants are 5-2-1 ATS their last eight games after allowing 30 points or more. Even though the line has dropped on this contest from an opener of 6 to 4 1/2, we still have two key numbers with the Giants in +3 and +4. I'm taking the points here in week two as the Giants look to correct that embarrassment from week 1.
SPORTS WAGERSFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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CHICAGO -5½ over MinnesotaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Vikings 10-point loss to the Lions in Week 1 was about as flattering a score and you’ll ever see to the loser. Detroit left many points on the table. They scored 40 but could have just as easily scored 57. The Lions moved at will and they scored pretty much at will as well. Minnesota’s offense is weak, its defense is weaker and once again the Vikings are on the road. Then there is the all-important QB position. Either you have a good QB or you don’t. When the bright lights are on, a quarterback is the lead singer and all the attention is on him. If he shines, he is bathed in that spotlight. If he sucks, he shields his eyes from the glare. Christian Ponder sucks. Against a weaker Detroit offense, he threw three picks, was sacked four times and fumbled once. Last season, Ponder would often have trouble reaching the century mark in passing yards, an almost unthinkable struggle in today's pass-heavy NFL. The Vikes offensive strategy; ride Peterson and keep things simple for Ponder so he doesn't make the big mistake, is one that worked to a certain degree last season but fizzled out as the year wore on and it didn’t work last week. Chances are it’s not going to work this season either.
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By contrast, Jay Cutler is a good QB that has the arm, smarts and potential to be great. Better yet - Jay Cutler was never sacked last week against a very tough Bengals defense. That speaks volumes about how much this new, shorter passing scheme can help Cutler remain healthy. He passed for 242 yards and two scores against a good Bengals secondary and was able to spread the ball around to his four main receivers. Marc Trestman has been a quarterback guru in the past this positive start sure had to make Cutler feel poised and confident out there. Cutler has a bevy of quality receivers and he also has a great one in Brandon Marshall, who went off for 8 catches and 104 yards last week. The Vikings defense not only surrendered 115 rushing yards and two touchdowns to the Lions running backs, but they were also scorched by both Joique Bell and Reggie Bush as receivers. This bodes well for Matt Forte, another weapon in the Bears arsenal.
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Peterson had nice games against the Bears last year but he was great against everyone else. He also had a freak year that will not be duplicated this season. Without his lead blocker Felton, the outlook is less cheery. The Bears shut down the Bengal's rushing effort and no doubt will load up for Peterson again. The Bengals only passing success came with A.J. Green (who has no equal on the Vikings to be sure) and that was somewhat to blame because Charles Tillman was sick and throwing up during the game and even needed an IV during halftime. Folks, we have no idea why the Vikings are getting so much credit here. They are inferior by a wide margin in every key department that includes QB, offense, defense, special teams, coaching, receivers, intangibles, momentum and of course the field on which this game will be played on.
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Cleveland +6½ over BALTIMOREFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore gets a little extra rest for this game after that Thursday night debacle in Denver but do they really deserve to be this big a choice over Cleveland? We think not. The Brownies had a difficult time against the Dolphins but that was the first game with new offensive schemes and we assure you they’ll be better prepped this week. The oddity of the opening game for Norv Turner's new offense is that he elected to run Trent Richardson only 13 times while Brandon Weeden threw 53 passes. Weeden threw for 289 yards and one score but had three interceptions and six sacks. Weeden had an off game but he’s much better than that and we now get the benefit of some extra points with the Brownies because of their poor showing against Miami. Don’t overpay to wager on the Ravens.
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The Ravens come off the biggest season opening loss by a Super Bowl champ ever. It could have been even worse than the scoreboard suggested. The problem was exactly what the fear was - the Ravens defense did take a hit with the losses of several key players and the offense was just stunted without the likes of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta. And they were facing a Denver team without Champ Bailey, Von Miller or Elvis Dumervil. Problem is, they have the same issues this week and we guarantee you that Joe Haden will be all over Torrey Smith, the Ravens only reliable receiver. Haden held Mick Wallace to one catch last week. Cleveland’s defense did an outstanding job in holding the Dolphins running game in complete check. The Brownies defense looks like it might be one of the most underrated in the league. With a depleted offense with a serious lack of talent, Baltimore is going to have problems sustaining drives and scoring points. Joe Flacco looked like the same average QB he’s always looked like and this year he has far less talent to throw to. The Ravens championship team swept the Browns last year, winning 23-16 at home and 25-15 in Cleveland. However, in both those games, Cleveland had a chance to win them outright. This season, the Ravens are worse and the Brownies are better. Additionally, the Brownies are a strong bounce back team with 10 covers in 14 tries after losing straight up. We’re calling for the upset here but will gladly scoop up these generous points.
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ARIZONA +105 over DetroitFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This line is off. There is no way the Lions deserve to be favored in Arizona but because Detroit has more appeal after a win and racking up 40 points, they are falsely being billed as such. That Lions win last week came in Detroit against a team without a quality QB. Yet that team, the Vikings, scored 30 points despite turning it over four times while Adrian Peterson had one good run the entire game. The Lions were as sloppy as ever and they are going to find the going much more difficult in the desert. Reggie Bush went off for 191 all-purpose yards last week in his Lions debut but the chances of a repeat or anything close is remote. Again, that was against a pathetic Vikings defense. Detroit’s offense is a formidable one for sure. Matthew Stafford is among the top 4-7 QB’s in the league but these are still the Lions, a team that stumbled through a 4-12 record last year, which saw bad decisions from both the coaches and players, along with plenty of undisciplined penalties. Nothing has changed. They did the same thing last week only they played a team that made more mistakes than they did.
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St. Louis needed a 14-0 fourth quarter last week to defeat these Cardinals by three points. The Cardinals come off that close loss in St. Louis but at least the offense is looking better. With Carson Palmer at the helm, the passing game was better than any time since Kurt Warner was still there. The rushing effort was decent as well, which translates into great when you are talking about the Cardinals who have never, ever, had a formidable rushing attack. At least no one still living has ever seen it. Carson Palmer has already paid big dividends. He threw for 327 yards and two touchdowns and gave the Cardinals a good chance to win. He even made Larry Fitzgerald look like the elite receiver he really is. Palmer was sacked four times and lost a fumble but that should improve as the season progresses. The important thing is that the Cardinals finally have a quarterback and Palmer takes a step down in class when facing the Lions defense as oppose to the one they saw on the road in St. Louis. The Cardinals always play better at home and in particular on defense. They were bombed by Jared Cook last week but no other receiver gained over 41 yards and Daryl Richardson was held to only 3.0 yards per carry in his own stadium. Detroit came in here last year and was whacked 38-17. That was against a very weak Arizona team. This year’s edition of the Cardinals is so much better with a solid defense, a veteran QB with new life and an entirely new coaching staff led by HC Bruce Arians and his outstanding credentials. Wrong side favored.
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San Diego +7 over PHILADELPHIAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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WOW, did you see that?! That was awesome! Welcome to the NFL Chip Kelly! Turn on any radio or NFL preview show and the first thing that’s talked about is that display by the Eagles on Monday Night Football. It was one of the highest rated MNF games in history and Chip Kelly and the Eagles delivered the goods by running the most 1st half plays in 53 years and running up a 26-7 halftime lead. The second half saw the Redskins make it much closer but many people are suggesting that Chip Kelly was milking the clock and the Redskins closed the gap in garbage time. Philly Chip has to learn that, unlike in college, in the NFL, you put a foot on the throat of an opponent until it quits twitchin’. In any event, it was an exciting display and it caused the Eagles stock to skyrocket in just one week.
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Week 2 lines are almost always an over or under-reaction to Week 1 results and that’s the situation here. The Redskins were ill-prepared for an offense they had never seen before. This is not college football where 95% of the players will never play football again after graduating. These are the best players in the world and if Chip Kelly thinks he’s going to “change” the game, he’s crazier than Lindsay Lohan during a bender. It’s been tried before with Dan Fouts and the Chargers back in the 70’s and to a lesser extent with Dan Marino and the Dolphins in the 80’s. Between them, they have zero Super Bowls and Michael Vick is no Dan Fouts or Dan Marino. In fact, you can’t run an offense like Chip Kelly wants with a guy like Vick. He’s not good enough and he’s not smart enough either. With all those plays last week, Vick ended up throwing for just 204 yards and he’s a hit or two away from not finishing a game. And let’s not forget that a rusty Robert Griffin III, who did not play a single down in the preseason, threw for 329 yards and two scores on Philly’s defense.
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San Diego blew a 28-7 lead but don’t ignore that they scored 28 points on a heralded Texans defense. Philip Rivers hit eight different receivers on just 29 pass attempts. There is no way he gets to stop at only 29 passes thrown. Last week RG3 threw 49. The Chargers looked very good for nearly three quarters and they, too, were adjusting to a new coaching staff and new schemes. The Bolts are very likely to be better offensively this week against a weaker defense than the one they saw last week. The kicker here is that the Eagles played a hugely emotional game on Monday night and won. They have Andy Reid and the Chiefs coming in here for another prime time game on Thursday. In terms of situational betting, that being, the Eagles stock has soared in one week, they’re coming off a hugely emotional Monday night win, they have another prime timer up on Thursday and this number is an over-reaction to last week’s display, it doesn’t get much better than this. Upset possibility.
Pass MLB & CFL
Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3½
The Bucs should be 1-0 and they know it. A bad penalty cost them the game last week and now they must make amends against a New Orleans team that held of late goal line stand taking down Atlanta last week. Division home dogs like Tampa off a road favored loss at -3 or more have been solid through the years and are covering at an 80% clip in week 2. Tampa is also 6-0 ats in the first month of the season with division revenge and they were smoked 41-0 last time they played the Saints. New Orleans has failed to cover 16 of 9 times starting in week 2 games vs teams who are winless and are 1-8 to the spread in the first month of the season as a favorite of 3 or more vs teams under.500. Look for Tampa Bay to get the cover.
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San Diego @ PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Diego +7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mark me down as one of the few observers that isn't sold on the fact that Chip Kelly's offense will be a long term success at the NFL level. Of course the early returns were spectacular in their opening week road win versus Washington. However, you also witnessed how fast a team can get back in a game versus the Eagles when facing a large deficit. If Michael Vick had a hard time staying healthy running Andy Reid's offense, then he's one bad read option away from a hospital bed in this attack. The Chargers gave one away last week versus a very good Houston Texans team. They squandered a 28-7 lead in the 2nd half losing on the last play of the game 31-28. One of the positives that can be taken from that game was the fact that Philip Rivers looked very comfortable running the offense of the new coaching staff. Look for San Diego to get Antonio Gates more involved this week. This one will go right down to the wire.