NFL Betting Picks
Kansas City Chiefs -3
It was an impressive season opener for the Chiefs, even if it was against the Jaguars. Kansas City went into Jacksonville on Sunday with a new head coach, new quarterback and new attitude after two straight losing seasons and beat the Jaguars 28-2 as 3.5 point favorites. The Chiefs led the NFL allowing just 178 yards against on defense last week, and their offense was efficient with Alex Smith going 21 for 34 for 173 yards with 2 TDs and adding 120 yards on the ground. The Cowboys also enjoyed a Week 1 victory in a wild 36-31 victory over the Giants. The Giants had six turnovers in that game, and what should worry Dallas fans a little bit is that they still won by less than a touchdown. Manning was able to throw for 450 yards and 4 TDs to go with his 3 INTs, even with the Cowboys knowing that he was going to be throwing for the most part of the second half (only 14 rush attempts the entire game). Tony Romo looked good and the Cowboys established a running game, but this week they will go into Kansas City for the Chiefs home opener in what should be a crazy atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium. When the Chiefs are a good football team they have one of the best home field advantages (in their last winning season in 2010 where they were 10-6 on the year they were 7-1 at home). The Cowboys have a trend of playing poorly after a win going 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up victory. This is a much improved Kansas City team and I'll lay the 3 points with them at home this week as they look to start 2-0.
Broncos vs. Giants
Pick: Over
The betting markets aren’t used to NFL totals in the mid-50’s. And there’s a significant sentiment among sharp bettors that NFL totals this high are ‘one-way-only’ bets – they’re either taking the Under, or passing on the total. In the modern NFL, that’s a flawed strategy, in my opinion.
Look no further than the TV games from last week. We had five national TV games on opening weekend: Broncos – Ravens, 49ers – Packers, Giants – Cowboys, Redskins – Eagles and Chargers – Texans. All five FLEW over the total, by 27, 15, 17, 8 and 15 points respectively – none of them were particularly close. ‘Square’ bettors cleaned up betting Overs in those contests. ‘Sharp’ bettors took the Under in every one of those games, and lost every dollar they wagered.
Peyton Manning threw seven touchdown passes in the opener against Baltimore. The Ravens don’t have an elite defense, but it’s certainly not a bottom tier unit. Denver dominated in the trenches offensively – Manning’s jersey was relatively clean for most of the night. And when Baltimore blitzed, the Broncos elite receiving corps was matched up in single coverage, and Manning found them for big gainers all night long.
The Giants secondary is not an elite unit, by any stretch of the imagination. New York’s defensive strength is supposed to be up front, on the defensive line; a team that can theoretically generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks without blitzing.
But that certainly wasn’t the case at Dallas in Week 1. Cowboys QB Tony Romo took only two sacks and was pressured only six times on 51 drop-backs. If Peyton Manning has all day to throw, Denver could approach this total all by themselves, especially now that the Giants have lost yet another key player from their secondary, with Prince Amukamara expected to sit after suffering a concussion last week!
But there’s no question that Eli can throw the deep ball every bit as well as his brother. The G-men had three 100 yard receivers in their opener (Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Rueben Randle), and tight end Brandon Myers had seven catches on his own. Despite playing behind a banged up offensive line, Manning had time to find all three receivers for long gainers – this is not a ‘dink and dunk’ offense, by any stretch of the imagination.
Denver’s defense is solid, not spectacular, especially without the suspended Von Miller bringing his pass rush and the injured Champ Bailey locking down opposing receivers in the secondary. The Ravens put together four long scoring drives (all 55+ yards) against the Broncos on opening night.
The Giants had 45 passing plays and only 14 rushes against the Cowboys. Despite playing with a huge lead for most of the second half, the Broncos had a 2:1 pass-to-run ratio themselves; a ratio that speaks volumes about the modern day NFL. It’s a passing league these days, with long gainers in bunches and the clock stopping on every incompletion.
Both previous Manning vs. Manning matchups have gone Over the total. Expect another Over in the latest installment of this rivalry on Sunday afternoon.
John Ryan
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Green Bay Packers
The simulator shows a high probability that Green Bay will win this game by 10 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-8 ATS mark for 79% winners since 1983. This system is also 8-1 ATS over the past five seasons. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) solid team from last season that outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game and after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. Simple and very profitable, but remember the accompanying research, systems, and game situations serve to reinforce the play produced by the SIMulator. Speaking of the SIM, it shows strong projections that they will gain better than 125 rushing yards and will gain more than 400 total offensive yards. In past games, Packers are 30-14 ATS since 1992 when they gain more than 125 rushing yards. They are 58-33 ATS when they gain 400 or more total offensive yards since 1992. The Packers have far too many weapons and depth on offense for Washington to contain. I also believe that James Jones will be targeted a lot more this week. Rodgers is one of the best at spreading the ball all over the field and identifying the best matchup after the snap. Take Green Bay.
Jimmy Boyd
Kansas City Chiefs -3
In week one, the Chiefs looked nothing like the team that finished with a 2-14 record last season. The defense posted a shutout, with the only points allowed coming from a safety on a blocked punt. Offensively, Kansas City moved the ball with an efficiency that was lacking most of last season. With Alex Smith at quarterback the offense was turnover free, a welcome change after finishing -24 in the turnover margin last season.
If not for the Giants six turnovers last week, the Dallas Cowboys would be starting the season with a 0-1 record. They tried to blow the game in the final minutes, showing us that the Cowboys are nowhere near as good as the preseason hype. This week they are on the road against Kansas City, and without turnovers and home field advantage, I don't see a scenario where Dallas can win this game. In head-to-head meetings between these teams, the home team is 4-0 ATS. The Cowboys are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
Jack Jones
Carolina Panthers -3
The Panthers certainly had their work cut out for them last week as they were up against one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl in the Seattle Seahawks. Still, you have to like their effort despite coming up short. I was especially impressed with the defense, which I believed to be one of the most improved stop units in the league in 2013 with the additions they made this offseason.
They drafted defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short early to bolster their defensive line. Also, linebacker Jon Beason is back healthy this season, which is huge as he is the leader of this defense. He pairs well with second-year pro Luke Kuechly, who registered a league-high 164 tackles last year. Defensive ends Greg Hardy (11.0 sacks in 2012) and Charles Johnson (12.5 sacks) form one of the most underrated pass-rush tandems in the NFL. Quietly, Carolina finished 10th in the league in total defense (333.1 yards/game) last season. It will be even better in 2013.
Carolina held Seattle to just 12 points and 18 total first downs. The offense didn’t look the greatest, but Cam Newton still completed 16 of 23 passes and showed some poise by not forcing anything and avoiding any interceptions. He gave his team a chance to win against arguably the best defense in the league, and now he will be up against one of the worst defenses in football. The Bills ranked 22nd in the league in total defense (362.9 yards/game) last season and 26th in scoring defense (27.2 points/game) despite spending a lot of money on that side of the ball.
Buffalo may have played New England tough last week, but its defense was shredded for 431 total yards in what what a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. In fact, the Bills were outgained by a total of 145 yards in the loss. The offense only managed 286 total yards, and C.J. Spiller was held to just 41 rushing yards on 17 carries, averaging 2.4 per rush.
The Panthers are 51-29 against the spread in their last 80 games after allowing 14 points or less in their last game. Carolina is 6-1 against the number in its last seven road games. The Panthers are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games following an ATS loss. The Bills are 2-10-1 against the number in their last 13 games following an ATS win. The road team is 4-0 against the number in the last four meetings. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
Doug Upstone
Buffalo Bills +3
Both teams lost after coming close to upsetting at home last week. Buffalo was a pleasant surprise while Carolina showed a lot of the same concerns offensively. This week Buffalo is at home again and has a great chance to upset at +3 to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start. They should be highly motivated and the game should probably be a pickem so take the dog with the extra margin.
Nick Parsons
Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 8
The Giants annihilated the Dodgers 19-3 yesterday behind 22-hits.
With a couple of confirmed "gas cans" on the bump tonight, I'm once again expecting a higher-scoring affair.
Ryan Vogelsong (3-5, 5.82 ERA)
Vogelsong was lucky to earn a no-decision for his effort vs. the Rockies on Tuesday, giving up five runs off eight hits with two walks over five innings, failing to register a strikeout.
The big right-hander has now allowed 12 combined runs over his last three starts.
Unfortunately for Vogelsong, a date vs. the hard-hitting Dodgers is likely not what the doctor ordered as the last time he faced them he gave up a ghastly seven runs over just 4 2/3's innings of work (and note that Vogelsong is a disturbing 1-2 with a pathetic 6.37 ERA on the road this year).
Edinson Volquez (9-11, 5.99 ERA)
Volquez is also coming off a no-decision vs. the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, giving up three runs off four hits with one walk over six innings.
He's now allowed seven runs over his first 11 innings of work for LA.
And unfortunately for Volquez, facing the Giants has been a disaster for him this season, already 0-1 with a ballooned 7.31 ERA in three starts vs. them (also note that the beleaguered right-hander owns a deplorable 6.47 ERA road record).
The Bottom Line
There is no love loss between these clubs and despite how hot the Dodgers have been this year, it may come as a surprise to learn that the Giants own an 8-7 edge in the season series.
After today, they'll have just one three-game set left at AT&T Park at the end of September.
I believe all signs once again point to a slug-fest. Consider a second look at the "over" in this one.
Larry Ness
Rams at Falcons
Pick: Over
Atlanta went 13-3 last season to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs for the second time in three years. Head coach Mike Smith and QB Matt Ryan finally earned their first postseason victory after three defeats by beating Seattle but Atlanta fell one game short of the Super Bowl by blowing a 17-point lead in a 28-24 loss to the 49ers in the conference title game, at home. The Falcons were done no favors by the NFL’s schedule makers, as they were forced to open the 20123 season at New Orleans, in Sean Payton’s return to the sidelines, after being suspended for the entire season due to “Bounty-Gate.”
The combination of Peyton and Brees entered Week 1’s showdown with Atlanta, 10-2 SU in their careers vs the Falcons and ‘escaped’ with 23-17 win, winning for the 11th time in 13 meetings. The Falcons hardly went down without a fight, as Ryan had the Falcons “knocking at the door” late in the game but Atlanta was not able to get in the end zone, despite having a 1st and goal from the New Orleans’ seven-yard-line. As for the Rams, who went a surprising 7-8-1 in Jeff Fisher’s first season (2012), they made a nice comeback at home vs the Cards, rallying from 24-13 third-quarter deficit, scoring 14 unanswered fourth-quarter points (StL won, 27-24).
Sam Bradford was 27-of-38 for 299 yards with a two TDs and just one INT in Week 1 and he had to love the play of his re-worked OL, led by FA acquisition Jake Long. "I can't say enough about those guys up front," Bradford said. "They played outstanding, and I think it shows that we've taken leaps and bounds from where we were last year." Actually, the OL improved quite a bit last year as well, as after allowing a league-worst 55 sacks in 2011, the Rams’ OL cut that number to 35 in 2012, then didn’t allow a single sack vs the Cards. In fact, the Rams have not allowed a sack in three straight games going back to LY, the first time they've achieved that feat since 1973!
An issue that St Louis may not yet have solved is what top do without RB Steven Jackson. Jackson, who set the franchise record with 10,138 rushing yards over nine seasons (including eight straight 1,000-yard years the last eight), will be on the field on Sunday, but in an Atlanta uniform. The post-Jackson era got off to a poor start in Week 1, as the Cards rushed for just 64 yards on 28 attempts (2.8 YPC). Note that Fisher’s team was an impressive 7-1 ATS as a road dog in 2012. Matt Ryan's 56 wins are the most by a quarterback in his first five seasons in NFL history and he’s got excellent WRs (White, Jones & Douglas) plus with TE Gonzalez coming back (changing his mind about retirement), the Falcons’ passing game will again be a major force. Jackson dropped an important pass late in last week’s loss but overall, his Atlanta debut was promising, as he ran for 77 yards on 11 carries plus caught five passes for 45 yards.
The Rams put up 27 points on a solid Arizona defense despite not playing all that well in Week 1 Sam Bradford has some speed with his outside receivers now plus the addition of TE Jared Cook is huge. I’ve already mentioned Atlanta’s offensive ‘weapons’ and the Falcons can score on anyone. This game features two dome teams playing in an environment in which both are capable of putting points on the board. Go OVER!
Bruce Marshall
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Pick: Houston Texans
It's not just the buckwheat flapjacks making the folks smile at the Pancake Pantry, as Titan fans are a bit excited about a possible breakthrough win earned last week at Pittsburgh. But Jake Locker (only 125 YP vs. the Steelers) hardly posted Aaron Rodgers-like numbers in the opener. Now, Tennessee faces Gary Kubiak's Houston side, which has emitted go-with vibes all summer and has offered very good value the past few years (26-12-1 overall vs. line). Texans' Clemson rookie WR DeAndre Hopkins appears to be the perfect fit to finally provide a complement to Andre Johnson, while DE J.J. Watt & LB Brian Cushing will hurry Locker into errant throws.
Andre Gomes
Carolina Panthers -3
Carolina played a good game last week against Seattle, especially on their defense. They stopped Marshawn Lynch very well (2.7 Y/C), but Russell Wilson was quite sharp with 23/33 C/ATT and defeated them at the end. On the Panthers' offense, Cam Newton didn't have a good passing game, while their running game worked quite well with 134 rushing yards and 5.2 Y/C! Now at Buffalo, I have no doubt that Carolina's defense will have another good performance. Buffalo's offense didn't impress me last week against New England and I expect them to struggle even more against a good defensive team such as Carolina.
So, the key for this game will be on the matchup between Carolina's offense and Buffalo's defense. New England's running game exposed once again Buffalo's poor run defense last week with 158 rushing yards and 4.5 Y/C. Carolina's running game was impressive against Seattle and now against one of the poorest run defenses of the league, I expect them to look good once again. In terms of the passing game, Buffalo's pass defense looked competent against the Patriots last week, but New England's receiving corps is so depleted right now that Tom Brady can't do a lot right now, as seen already on their week 2 game against the NY Jets as well. I believe Cam Newton should be able to have a decent passing game in here, so I believe Carolina is the better team and that they'll prove this today with a comfortable win.
Dave Essler
Saints / Bucs Under 47.5
If this game were in New Orleans, maybe. But not on the road and not on grass and not w/Revis, who was brought in specifically to challenge both the Saints and the Falcons big-play offenses. And of course the Bucs are not foolish enough to try and get into a shootout here, and I am a believer in the Saints defense. Just way too many ways this stays under the number here, barring BS turnovers in their own territory leading to easy scores. Gave this out at 47.5 early in the week.
Harry Bondi
Cleveland / Baltimore Under 44
As we mentioned in this week's Bondi Bulletin, Baltimore has absolutely owned Cleveland in this series. Not only have the Ravens won 10 straight, but they have held the Browns to just 11 points per game during that time. Browns QB Brandon Weeden continues to prove he is not a legit NFL starter and the addition of Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator isn't helping matters. The last four games in this series have gone under, with an average total of 40 and today's number is four points higher than that. The Browns have been a dead "under" team over the last three seasons, cashing the under in 22 of their last 32 games, including a 2-9 over/under record when the number is in this range. It's another low-scoring Browns game. Go under.
Bob Balfe
Baltimore Ravens -7
The Ravens are not going to be Super Bowl Champs, but they are not as bad as how they looked on opening night. Cleveland on the other hand looked awful and I don’t think these are problems that can be fixed overnight. The offensive line was horrible, running game was brutal, quarterback play stunk and the list goes on. This is a bad football team. The Ravens could not have drew a better match up for this afternoon. Baltimore still has playmakers on defense and I believe wins this game with ease. Take the Ravens.
Rocketman
Dallas @ Kansas City
Play: Kansas City -3
The Dallas Cowboys travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams opened up with a win in their opener. Dallas is 2-8 ATS last 3 years after a division game. Dallas is 3-7 ATS last 10 games after an ATS win. Dallas is 4-14 ATS last 18 games after a SU win. The Home team is 3-0-1 ATS last 4 meetings overall in this series. Dallas is a public favorite and still getting 3 points in this one. I smell something that just isn't right with the lowly Chiefs giving up points. So we'll side with them here today. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City today!
Craig Davis
It's crazy to think the Tampa Bay Bucs blew that lead last week vs. the Jets when it seemed as if they dominated pretty much throughout the contest.
I'm not sure if this selection is more against Tampa Bay or for New Orleans. Either way, I know it's a huge game for the Saints because they could go 2-0 in the division to start the season... and not many teams have a chance to start out of the gates with two division wins.
The Saints beat the Falcons last week in a game that was back and forth and very exciting to watch for both sides. While I still have some questions about the Saints defense, they did do better than they did in most games a year ago and the offense worked out some kinks early and finally settled in.
If Doug Martin looked like half the player he was last year, I might be a little leery to release the Saints in this spot today, but until the Bucs get the run game going, Josh Freeman and the pass game are going to struggle.
Take New Orleans as your free play of the day, and buy the half point down on the Saints at -4 and -3 1/2 points.
4♦ NEW ORLEANS