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Arizona Cardinals +14FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I believe 14 points is way too much for almost any NFL team to be laying, even the New England Patriots. I'll side with the value in this one and back the underrated Cardinals as Sunday's free pick in pro football.
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While I took New England in Week 1 because I believe it was undervalued as only a 5-point favorite at Tennessee, I will now shift gears and fade the Patriots. They are overvalued in Week 2 after their 34-13 victory over the Titans, which has the public perception of them sky high.
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The public just doesn't seem to want to get on the Arizona bandwagon despite the fact that the Cardinals are 8-2 over their last 10 games. The Cardinals may have the most underrated defense in the league. They have allowed 23 or less points in each of their last 10 games, which has been the biggest reason for their turnaround.
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Arizona's stop unit came up huge last week, limiting Seattle to just 254 total yards en route to a 20-16 victory. The Seahawks drove all the way down to the Arizona 4-yard line in the final seconds, but the defense held to seal the victory.
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Whether John Skelton or Kevin Kolb is under center, I still like the Cardinals at this price. Skelton has been solid during this 8-2 run, and Kolb has to have a lot of confidence coming in after delivering the game-winning drive once Skelton went out with an ankle injury against Seattle. Kolb completed 6 of 8 passes for 66 yards on the drive, capping it off with a 6-yard touchdown strike to Andre Roberts with 4:59 to play.
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The Patriots are 8-20 ATS in their last 20 home games with a total set between 45.5 and 49 points. The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, making backers who are willing to ride them a lot of money. New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.
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Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Houston TexansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston has won and covered 3 straight over Jacksonville over the L2 seasons. Texans QB, Matt Schaub is healthy and just signed a 4 year extension worth 62 million dollars. The play-caller went 20 for 31, 266 YP, and a TD last week. He has both Johnson and Daniels that combined for 206 yards receiving in the teams 30-10 drubbing over Miami. This is a team with arguably the best tandem of RBs in the league in Foster and Tate. The duo sputtered a week ago but will establish themselves here. The defense is tough, holding 11 of their L14 opponents under 20 points and after just 1 week, the team has a full game up on the rest of the Division and at 11-2 ATS their L13, they are money against the number. Jacksonville will be an improved team, but improved from what? They averaged just over 13 PPG last season. The Jags have a 2nd year QB in Blaine Gabbert. RB, Jones-Drew had 77 yards on 19 carries in Week 1 after ending his 38 day holdout. The man is rusty. They also have issues on the OL with a banged up Britton, Bradfield, and Nwameri. This will be a problem against the Houston defense. The Jaguars are 4-12-1 ATS their L17 games vs. teams with a winning record and 0-5 ATS their L5 games played in Week 2. The Texans are 5-1 ATS their L6 games on the road and 4-0 ATS their L4 Week 2 contests. Take the Texans here and try for the -7.
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New England Patriots -13.5
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The Patriots opened up at a 14.5-point favorite, but have since been bet down to -13.5. I strongly recommend jumping on this play before it goes back up to 14!
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The Patriots went on the road and beat up on the Texans 34-13 in Week 1. Arizona was able to hold off Seattle at home 20-16, but could have just as easily lost that game. The Seahawks had the ball inside the Cardinals 4-yard line but failed on 4 straight pass attempts behind a rookie quarterback.
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Arizona lost starting quarterback John Skelton to an ankle injury late in that game, and he is listed as doubtful for Sunday. That leaves the Cardinals with Kevin Kolb as their starter. I know Kolb led the Cardinals to a touchdown late against Seattle, but we are talking about a quarterback who couldn't beat out John Skelton. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Skelton turned the ball over 3 or 4 times against Bill Belichick's defense.
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Speaking of the Patriots defense, they looked pretty good in the opener considering how bad they played on that side of the ball in 2011. New England held Chris Johnson and the Titans running game to just 20 yards on 16 attempts. Allowing just 1.3 yards/carry. The Cardinals rushing attack produced just 43 yards on 20 attempts against the Seahawks. That all boils down to Kolb dropping back to pass 40+ times in this game, which is exactly what we want.
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New England's offense was very efficient against a solid Tennessee defense. Tom Brady completed 23 of 31 attempts for 236 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. At the same time, running back Stevan Ridley carried it 21 times for 125 yards and a score. The Patriots simply have too many weapons for a young Arizona defense to contain.
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Not only do the Patriots have what I believe to be a clear advantage on both sides of the ball, this game falls into a situation that rarely loses. Anytime you have a home favorite that outgained opponents by 4 or more points/game the previous season, who just scored 30 or more in their last game, you load up on the home team! It's 36-9 (80%) SINCE 1983!
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Other key trends favoring New England. The Patriots are 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, while the Cardinals are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
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Tennessee Titans vs. San Diego Chargers
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Jake Locker's debut versus the Pats last week wasn't what he would have liked but he did complete more than 70% of his passes. This week Tennessee WR Kenny Britt is back from his one game suspension. That's great for Locker as he'll be able to just toss the ball anywhere near Britt and he’ll pull it down.
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The Chargers are coming off an unimpressive win over Oakland and will be operating off a short week. Britt is a big addition for Norv and his defense to worry about off the short week.
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Consider that Titans are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while Chargers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
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Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We are going to side with the home side 49ers who return home after beating a team who was 15-1 last season. San Francisco finished 14-2 and were no slouch either, so we will side with them to cover over the Lions. Detroit is 0-4 ATS as an underdog, simply put, they are not good as the teams ahead of them in the standings. With a touchdown in hand, it still will not be enough for Detroit who have no running game, but one of the best passing offences in the league. San Francisco made things difficult for another top passing offense in Green Bay and we will see more of that strategy implemented on Sunday evening, you can limit Aaron Rodgers to under 200 yards passing, you are doing something right. Alex Smith has a wide array of weapons for his use and took advantage of them last week, spreading the ball around and enjoyed the support of a running game that threw up 170 yards on the ground. We are going to take the more polished 49ers as they knock out Detroit in their first game on the road.
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Oakland Raiders vs Miami Dolphins
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A pair of winless teams meet off of bad Week 1 performances, but only one of them has a QB. The Raiders have a decent QB as well as far more offensive talent than the lifeless Dolphins. The Raiders are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss, a good bounce back team. The Dolphins are a mess, showing nothing in preseason and were worse in the opener getting blown out by Houston. Going with rookie QB Ryan Tanenhill means they are in for a long season and wins will be hard to come by -- if they get any at all. The Dolphins are 21-49-1 ATS in their last 71 home games! Play the Raiders.
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Seattle +3FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Seahawks disappointed the "wiseguys" last week as they lost outright to the Arizona Cardinals. Despite the loss and poor overall play, we are in a good spot on value with the Cowboys coming off the road upset over the New York Giants. The Cowboys minus Witten still managed to put up 433 yards of offense and looked like the Dallas team everyone expects every single season. On paper the Cowboys look like an easy winner, but our numbers have this line closer to a pick'. Take the +3/+3.5 in what should be a close game.
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Indianapolis +3
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The Colts lost 41-21 to the Bears in Andrew Luck's debut. They had a lot of positive stats in this game, but they couldn't overcome the five turnovers they committed. On the bright side, they scored 21 points, which was more than expected against the Bears. Also, they committed only three penalties for 19 yards and they were 2-2 on fourth down.
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In general, NFL teams have been huge plays after games like the Colts had last week. The league as a whole is a scintillating 81-33-4 since late 1991 during the regular season when they are off a game in which they threw at least two interceptions, lost at least two fumbles, suffered at least a plus-two turnover margin yet still scored more points than expected.
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Yes, the Vikings have a good rush defense, but the Colts are 9-0 ATS as a home dog vs a team that has allowed fewer than 3.8 yards per rush season-to-date.
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Minnesota is off a miracle, back-and-forth, come-from-behind overtime win in their home opener. They only had 27 minutes of possession time compared with nearly 38 for the Jaguars and they failed on two separate red zone attempts. All this is relevant because the Vikings are 0-8 ATS (-12.8 ppg) on the road after a home win in which they were losing at the half and 0-15 ATS (-12.1 ppg) on the road the week after a home game in which they failed on at least two red zone attempts, as long as they are not getting more than three points.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In addition, the Vikings have shown no mental toughness in this spot, as they are The Vikings are 0-10 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since the divisional realignment in 2002 when they are facing a non-divisional opponent and the line is within three of pickem the week after a home game that they did not lose by 28-plus points.
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Note that the Vikings have lost every game straight up and they were the favorite in three of the five.
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Andrew Luck should benefit greatly from a friendly crowd. Take the Colts.
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MTi's FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 17 Minnesota 13
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POWER ANGLE PLAY
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PHILADELPHIA -2.5 over Baltimore: Such a small line for an Eagles team that is loaded with talent. This is over reaction to last weeks games. Last week the Eagles were big favorites in Cleveland and had this game on deck and they really put for a lackluster effort. The Defense played very well, but the offense looked uninspired and Vick had a rough one with 4 INT's. This offense is better than that and they will show it in their home opener today. Last year the Eagles put up 29 ppg in their last 6 home games. They will be taking on a tough Baltimore defense that looked good on Monday night, but that Raven defense is getting up there in age and just may not be all that fresh to chase Vick and the Eagles receivers all over the field, especially on a short week. Flacco and that no huddle offense looked great on Monday night, but they will be taking on a much tougher defense this week, plus now that they have run their no huddle offense their is now film on it and the element of surprise is gone in that respect. Baltimore is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 off MNF, while Andy Reid is 18-9-1 ATS as a favorite off a spread loss of 7 or more. The This game is sandwiched between road games vs Cleveland and Arizona, while the have a short week off a divisional MNF game and have the Pats on deck next Sunday night. Great spot for the eagle to show they are for real. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- In game 2 of the year play against and team in a non-divisional game if they are off an ATS win of 20 or more and scored 28+ points in that game and are playing a team seeking revenge. These play against teams are 3-16 ATS the last 19 times it has come up.
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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Cincinnati/ Cleveland Under 39.5: Brandon Weedon is not ready for the NFL just yet. Last week Weedon hit just 34% of his passes and posted a horrible 39.7 QB Rating and he will now take to the road to take on an ANGRY Cincinnati defense that was humiliated on Monday night. This will not be easy for Weedon. Dating to the preseason he now has 0 TD passes and 5 INT's. I really expect a conservative game plan from the Cleveland staff so to not demolish the Psyche of Weedon, so early in his career. Conservative from this team means running, running and more running and I expect them to employ that game plan. The Bengal defense had a rough showing vs the Ravens on Monday night football, but they should bounce back vs this bad Cleveland offense. The Browns played pretty good defense in their opener and the Bengals and Carson Palmer are still learning the West Coast offense. Carson did look lost at times in this offense on Monday night and it will continue here. Both teams will be looking to play solid defense in this one and with two struggling offenses it will certainly help keep the score down. KEY TREND--- The Under is 10-2 after a game in which Cincinnati has allowed 35 points or more.
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Houston/ Jacksonville Over 41: Jacksonville last week showed that they can move the ball and I know that it was vs Minnesota, but I give them an excellent shot at putting some solid numbers up in this one. The Jags put up 25 ppg in the preseason and then proceeded to score 23 points in their opener vs Minnesota. The Jags threw for 249 yards last week after averaging just 136 ypg through the air last year. The Houston defense will be tough again this year, but losing Demeco Ryans and Mario Williams means this unit will not be as strong as last years group that finished 2nd in the league. In the opener Houston Allowed Miami just 10 points, but that was a Dolphin team that was learning new schemes and it showed by how much the struggled in the preseason. The Jag defense showed very little in the preseason, allowing 29.3 ppg and they haven't fixed things yet after allowing 26 points and 389 yards to Minnesota in the opener. I expect them to have problems today vs a Houston team that is fully healthy on offense and should put up big points this year. Including preseason they have put up at least 20 in each of their games and they should do so again with ease. Both offenses should have a good day in this one as this game eclipses 41 points with ease. KEY TRENDS--- The Over is 9-3 in the Jags last 12 home games with an OU line of 41-43, while the Over is 12-6 in Houston's last 18 divisional road games.
NFL Betting Picks
Chiefs / Bills Over 44.5
The Kansas City Chiefs entered their week 1 home meeting with Atlanta as 3 point underdogs, but were blown away in a 40-24 loss. The Falcons were able to score points without much problem against the Chiefs defense as Matt Ryan threw for 299 yards and 3 TDs. Matt Cassel looked good at times completing 21 of 33 of his pass attempts with 1 TD, but he threw 2 interceptions in important drives that gave them no chance to make a comeback. Jamaal Charles was solid on the ground running for 87 yards on 16 carries. The Buffalo Bills went into New York to face the Jets as 2.5 point underdogs. New York was supposed to have a bad offense after a rough preseason but they managed to put up 27 first half points on the Bills before finishing the game with a 48-28 victory. Ryan Fitzpatrick was 18 for 32 for 195 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs, while CJ Spiller who filled in for an injured Fred Jackson was the lone bright spot in the Bills day rushing for 169 yards on 14 carries. The Bills suffered another hit to their offense with David Nelson out with a torn ACL.
The Buffalo Bills ranked 26th in defense last year giving up 371 yards against per game, and they were 30th giving up a high 27.1 points against per game. The Bills were also 28th ranked defensively against the run giving up 139 yards against per game on the ground, and that could be troubles for them with Jamaal Charles looking good in Week 1. Although Kansas City ranked 11th defensively last year giving up 333 yards per game and 12th allowing 21.1 points against per game, I expect their defense to struggle here in 2012. Their secondary has looked bad and although getting Brandon Flowers back (who is questionable for Week 2) will help, I still think they will have a hard time slowing down offenses.
These two teams met in Buffalo in Week 1 last year with the Bills winning 41-7. Buffalo was able to establish a ground game with Fred Jackson running for 100+ yards, and Ryan Fitzpatrick had little troubles throwing for 208 yards and 4 Touchdowns. In that game the Chiefs weren't able to utilize their running game effectively as they fell behind early, but Jamaal Charles was able to average 5+ yards per carry in his limited action. A more balanced attack this Sunday should give Cassel some more room to work with. Note that the Bills averaged 32.3 points per game at home last season, where the OVER was 5-3. Two of the three games that fell under the total just missed at 39 points and 40 points. Kansas City was just 3-5 for the OVER on the road, but you have to factor in that Cassel only started their first 4 road games and they faced a tough road schedule. The OVER is 4-1 in the Chiefs last 5 games in September and 5-0 in the Bills last 5 September games. These two teams played to totals of 64 and 76 in Week 1, and both defenses looked bad. I had my eye on this total before the Week 1 games and I like it even more after getting to watch some of both games. Take the OVER.
Lions / 49ers Over 46
The Detroit Lions won in exciting fashion in their Week 1 game against the Rams. St Louis found themselves down by 3 points and managed to march the field and finish off a great drive with a Touchdown for the 27-23 victory, instead of settling for a field goal to force overtime. The 27-23 win cashed our big 4 unit play on the OVER last week, and we come right back with the over in a Lions game again. Matthew Stafford threw for 355 yards while completing 32 of his 48 pass attempts. Stafford looked a little off at times, and it showed as he threw 3 INTs. Without the costly mistakes Stafford and the Lions could have put up 35+ points in Week 1. Calvin Johnson caught 6 passes for 111 yards, while Pettigrew and Burleson had 77 and 69 receiving yards respectively. The Lions didn't need to use their ground game often as they had success through the air, but Kevin Smith looked good rushing for 62 yards on 13 attempts. The San Francisco 49ers went into Green Bay and beat the Packers by a final score of 30-22 as 5 point underdogs. Alex Smith went 20 for 26 for 211 yards with 2 touchdowns, while Frank Gore was a beast on the ground rushing for 112 yards on 16 attempts. After taking an early lead the 49ers offense was controlling the game more than trying to put up a lot of scores, and I think if this game was closer than 23-7 that we saw in the 3rd quarter the 49ers offense could have done some more damage.
Although the Lions did well on defense last Sunday we have to take into account that the Rams have a bad offense and were trying to control the clock as they led or were down just a few points for most of the game. This week the Lions will see a much better offense that has a balanced pass and run game. In 2011 the Lions were 23rd in total defense allowing 367 yards against per game. Their pass defense was ranked 22nd, while their rush defense was 23rd. Also note that they were 23rd in the league giving up 24.2 points against per game. Offensively the Lions were 5th in the NFL last year with 396 yards per game, and 4th averaging 29.6 points per game. This Lions offense looked sharp in Week 1, even with a few mistakes from Stafford, and I expect them to be right near the top in offensive categories again this season.
The 49ers were the leagues 4th ranked defense last year giving up 308 yards against per game and 2nd in points against allowing just 14.3 points per game. With that said if you go back to their 2011 schedule and take a look you will see that New Orleans put up 32 against them, New York Giants put up 20 points against them twice, Philadelphia put up 23 points against them, and Dallas put up 27. Detroit managed an average 19 points against the 49ers last season, but that was a game that Stafford completed just over 50% of his passes. I expect him to have more success against them this week. You can also go back to last week and see that although they slowed down the Packers, Rodgers still had success through the air and they did score 22 points against them. Also note that the 49ers were just 16th ranked against the pass last year. I think San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the league, but I'm just trying to show you that elite quarterbacks can have success against any defense these days. Offensively the 2011 49ers were ranked 26th averaging 310 yards per game, but were 11th with 23.8 points per game.
Take note that the OVER was 8-1 in the Lions road games last year (including their postseason game in New Orleans). Dating back the OVER is also 35-15-1 in their last 51 road games, and 23-9-2 in their last 34 vs a team with a winning record. The OVER is 5-1 in the Lions lsat 6 overall. For the 49ers the OVER has hit in 13 of their last 19 vs NFC teams, while the OVER is 6-1-1 in their last 8 September games. These two teams played to totals of 50 and 52 last week, and I thought that each game could have been closer to totals of 60. The Lions have one of the better offenses in the leagues with a mediocre defense, while San Francisco looked great offensively last week and I think that continues in Week 2 as 6.5 point favorites. Take the OVER in this one.
Redskins -3
The talk of Week 1 was Robert Griffin III performance against the Saints as they upset New Orleans as 9.5 point underdogs. RG3 threw for 320 yards with 2 TDs completing 19 of 26 in a 40-32 victory. Rookie Alfred Morris added 96 yards on 28 carries with 2 Touchdowns, while Pierre Garcon led the receivers with 4 catches for 109 yards and a TD. Garcon is questionable for Sunday's game. The Redskins defense wasn't as bad as the score indicates, as Brees completed less than 50% of his passes and also threw 2 interceptions. The Saints were also limited to just 32 yards rushing. It was a tough loss for the Rams in Week 1 as they lead for a lot of their game in Detroit before losing to a final second Touchdown by Kevin Smith on a 5 yard pass from Stafford. With that said, the Rams didn't really deserve to be in that game as they didn't do much offensively and a few bad passes deep in the Rams territory by Stafford led to some interceptions that put points on the board St Louis. I do give them credit for playing a tough game though and almost upsetting the Lions as 9 point underdogs.
St Louis gave up 429 yards against last week, which was 28th in the NFL. The Rams defense ranked 22nd last year giving up 358 yards against, while they were 26th giving up 25.4 points against per game. Offensively I was expecting a little more from the Rams in Week 1as they managed just 250 yards of offense. Last year the Rams were 31st in the NFL offensively with 283 yards per game, and were dead last averaging 12.1 points per game. Washington, on the other hand, tore it up in Week 1 leading the NFL with 459 yards leading to 40 points scored. In 2011 they were 16th in the league with 336 yards per game, and 26th scoring 18 points per game. With a new look offense I expect both of those numbers to go up, and although we shouldn't expect 450+ yards and 40 points per game, I do think this Washington offense will have some success. Defensively the Redskins were 13th last year with 339 yards against per game, and 21st with 22.9 points against per game. Washington gave up 358 yards in Week 1, but that was against Drew Brees and the Saints in New Orleans - this week will be a little different going against one of the leagues worst offenses.
Note that when the Rams were involved in spread of 3 or less last season they were 1-4 against the spread. The Redskins were 3-3 against the spread in the same situation. Overall the Redskins were 7-9 against the spread in 2011, while the Rams were 3-12-1 against the spread. St Louis won just 2 games last year, and had only one loss that was by 3 or fewer points (and it was a 3 point loss). The Redskins beat the Rams in St Louis last year by a score of 17-10 as 3 point favorites. Dating back to last season the Redskins have won 3 of their last 4 road games (New Orleans, New York Giants, and Seattle), while St Louis has lost 8 straight. Some may call this play an over reaction to Week 1, but before Week 1 I had this spread at Washington -2.5, and after watching the Redskins and Rams play in Week 1 I am very happy to get the Redskins -3. I will take Washington -3 for 2 units on Sunday at a generous price.
ParlayJoe
Carolina Panthers +3
The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Saints on the other hand are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Both teams desperate for a win here and we will take the home field advantage.
NY Giants -7
The Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Giants are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 2 while also posting an impressive 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Play is on the NY Giants.
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Washington vs. Atlanta
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The Nationals' (89-56) Gio Gonzalez (19-7, 2.93 ERA) is set to square off against the Braves' (83-63) Mike Minor (8-10, 4.42 ERA) on the mound this evening.
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Gonzalez gave up five walks over six frames, but that resulted in only one run in a 5-1 victory over the Mets on Monday; he's now 6-1 with a minuscule 1.82 ERA over his last seven starts. In fact, he's won his last three starts in a row, posting a sparkling 0.41 ERA in the process. And note that he's been particularly effective on the road this year, 11-3 with a very respectable 3.23 ERA.
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Minor went 5 2/3's frames, giving up zero runs while scattering two hits and giving up two walks while striking out eight vs. Milwaukee on Monday; his bullpen would let him down and Minor was forced to take a no-decision. Minor hasn't lost since August 19th, giving up just three base hits over 12 2/3's frames of scoreless baseball spanning his last two starts. Note that he's 5-4 with a very respectable 3.61 ERA in front of the home town crowd.
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These two are battling it out to the end, and the Braves have taken the first two games of this three game series; they won 2-1 on Friday, and 5-4 yesterday.
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With a couple of the National League's hottest hurlers facing each other on the national stage, you may want to consider a second look at the "under" in the finale!
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NY Mets vs. Milwaukee
Pick: MilwaukeeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers are arguably the hottest team in baseball right now and they will look to keep their playoff push going on Sunday against the Mets. They will send Wily Peralta to the mound where he has made two solid efforts already. He allowed 1 run and seven hits in six innings pitched against Atlanta his last time out. Peralta will face a Mets team that has won just twice since September 3rd. Outside of the last two nights, the offense hadn't shown any punch whatsoever. Between Peralta and the Brewers’ bullpen that has a 2.48 ERA in their last ten games, we do not expect the Mets to breakout in this game.
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Chris Young is 4-7 with a 4.39 ERA in 17 starts for the Mets. He has allowed 8 runs and 14 hits in his last three starts and he’s 4-3 on the road where has had his worse starts. Milwaukee has scored 4 runs or more in all but two games since September 4th. Young is backed by a mediocre New York bullpen and he’ll need to go deep into the game for the Mets to have any shot to win. We'll take the hotter team with the young, hotshot pitcher on the mound against a struggling Mets team on Sunday afternoon.
Teddy CoversFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington vs. St. Louis
Pick: UnderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jeff Fisher is one of the true ‘Under’ coaches still finding work at the NFL level. Fisher is a conservative guy on the offensive side of the ball. He’ll take the field goal or punt just about every time on fourth and short, an Under bettors dream. Coaching a team with a young QB, very limited skill position talent and a banged up offensive line, you can count on Fisher utilizing a run-first gameplan. St Louis’s OL is an area of weakness; Washington’s pass rush is an area of strength. Don’t expect the Rams to light up the scoreboard on Sunday.
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But the Rams have a defense this year as we clearly saw last week when they frustrated Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense for 59 minutes. The Rams have enough meaningful game film on Robert Griffin III to create a strategy to contain him. Washington’s #1 WR Pierre Garcon doesn’t look like he’s going to be able to suit up and play on Sunday, leaving a rookie QB in a dome on the road without his best weapon. Expect plenty of between the tackles runs from the Redskins, just like we saw last week in New Orleans, but this time, Washington’s going to be facing a defense that knows how to tackle. Expect a dearth of big plays and more field goals than touchdowns in what should be a relatively low scoring affair. Take the Under.
Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas vs. Seattle
Pick: OverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dallas Cowboys opened the 2012 season with a ’bang,’ beating the defending Super Bowl champs 24-17 on their home turf. Dallas has had plenty of preparation time before this game in Seattle (10 days off) but is that good or bad? I would imagine, the Cowboys would have been anxious to get right back on the field after their September 5 win. Tony Romo totally outplayed Eli (22 of 29 for 307 yards with three TDs), plus DeMarco Murray ran 20 times for 131 yards. However, the real surprise was third receiver Kevin Ogletree, who had eight receptions for 114 and two TDs. Dallas now looks to open a season 2-0 for the first time since 2008.
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The Cowboys have outscored the Seahawks 95-39 while winning the last three regular season meetings between the two teams, but this will be Dallas' first trip to Seattle since Romo dropped the snap on a potential game-winning FG attempt during a 21-20 NFC wildcard playoff loss January 6, 2007. Romo has posted a 106.4 QB rating while throwing for 1,055 yards with nine TDs and just one interception in four starts against the Seahawks. He was 19 of 31 for 279 yards and two TDs during Dallas' 23-13 home win over Seattle last year on November 6. Romo's 111.2 regular-season QB rating against the Seahawks is the highest by any QB vs Seattle with a minimum of 100 attempts. Seattle will have to put some points on the board Sunday, in order to win. Seattle opened the 2012 season with a 20-16 loss last week in Arizona and the Seahawks actually ran 39 of its 70 plays in Arizona territory but managed only three FGs and a 10-yard TD pass from rookie Russell Wilson to Sidney Rice. Wilson was sacked three times and the Seahawks committed 13 penalties, which is a little too reminiscent of last year, when they set a franchise record with 138.
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Wilson was a “breakout” star in the preseason, beating out FA signee, Matt Flynn. His first start wasn’t all that bad, as he was 18 of 34 for 153 yards with that TD and an interception. He also ran eight times for 20 yards. That versatility is something the Cowboys know they must be ready to contain. Let’s not forget that Seattle had 1st and goal on the Cardinals' six-yard line in the final seconds of last Sunday’s game but Wilson threw three straight incompletions. RB Marshawn Lynch rushed 21 times for 85 yards against Arizona, despite a sore back. He had 135 yards with a TD on 23 carries at Dallas last season. The Seahawks have won EIGHT of their last nine home openers and don’t be surprised if Dallas comes in a little flat after its win over the Giants, as well has having a 10-day layoff. Here at home, look for Wilson to play with more confidence and I expect the Seahawks to be able to trade points with the Cowboys. This won’t be an old-fashioned shoot-out but I do expect scoring and this is a workable total. Go over.