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San Diego Chargers -6.5
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The Titans were crushed 34-13 at home by New England in Week 1, and it gets no easier in Week 2 when they visit San Diego.
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The Tennessee Titans organization is 0-7 all-time versus the Chargers, and those defeats have come by an average of 15.7 points. Tennessee's 4 road losses in this span have come by an average of 18.3 points. It is also worth noting that all 4 came at least 8 points. The Titans have failed to cover the spread in all seven meetings.
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Tennessee has not been a bounce-back play following a lopsided defeat as it is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following a loss of more than 14 points.
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The Titans were held to just 20 rushing yards in Week 1, and I expect their struggles on the ground to continue against a San Diego stop unit that limited Oakland to only 45 rushing yards. This one will likely come down to which quarterback performs better, and you have to like Rivers over Jake Locker or Matt Hasselbeck. Rivers, who was sharp in the opener, should be able to pick apart a defense that allowed Tom Brady to complete 23 of 31 passes for 236 yards and two touchdowns. Lay the points.
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NY Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: NY Jets +5½
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The Jets fit solid system that dates to 1991. We want to play on road dogs off a home favored win where they scored 42 or more points and passed for 250 or more yards, vs an opponent off a road loss and scored 21 or less and rushed for less than 100 yards. The Jets have covered 3 of 4 vs the Steelers and still have the bitter taste in their mouths from the last time they were here as they dropped the AFC Championship game that day. The Jets though have won and covered 6 of the last 7 off a division win and looked like a team with a plan last week. Revis will be out for the Jets this one. However the Steelers are banged up on defense and it showed late in their loss to Denver last week. The Steelers also have major issues on the offensive line. Look for a close game here with the Jets getting at the very least the cover.
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Baltimore Ravens vs Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
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Week One overreactions frequently lead to strong Week Two spots. One such scenario looks to be on the Ravens-Eagles contest, with public bettors unloading on the road team. I'll fade that mass opinion and back the Eagles today.
Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Nationals / Braves Under 7.5
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Gio Gonzalez takes the bump for the Nats on Sunday night..."night" being the key word. Gonzalez owns fantastic evening numbers, much better than his daytime marks, posting a 2.31 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and .195 BAA in 18 starts. He's been tremendous on the road since becoming a member of the Nationals and has allowed just 10 earned runs and 54 base runners in his last seven starts, spanning 49 1/3 innings. Gonzalez has given up just 1 earned run in his last 22 innings of work. Mike Minor will be the other southpaw on the mound tonight. Over his last 12 starts, the lefty has lowered his season ERA from 6.20 to 4.42! He's posted a 2.39 ERA & 0.90 WHIP along the way. Minor is a tough nut to crack at Turner Field this season and I believe he'll be on his game in this one. The Braves are on an 8-1 Under run when Minor starts and the total is in the 7 to 8 1/2 range. They're on a 22-5 Under run at home in their last 27, overall. Meanwhile, the Nats are 7-2 to the Under with Gonzalez installed as a road favorite. I'm playing the Under between the Nats & Braves on Sunday.
DAVID BANKS
Lions / 49ers Over 46
The last meeting between the Detroit Lions (1-0, 0-1 ATS) and the San Francisco 49ers (1-0, 1-0) led to a post-game coaches squabble after the Niners 25-19 win last season in what has become parochially known as the Handshake Bowl in Detroit. The rematch takes place at Candlestick Park in San Francisco, CA on Sunday night at 8:20, and can be seen nationally on NBC.
Both coaches, Jim Harbaugh of the 49ers and Jim Schwartz of the Lions, now consider the incident "ancient history" and both insist there are no hard feelings. With that in mind let us just focus on the two teams here, and while each club won its opener, the 49ers were easily the more impressive of the two. In fact, San Francisco had the look of a legitimate Super Bowl contender, going into Lambeau Field in Green Bay and physically manhandling the Packers 30-22. The Niners had the best defense in the NFL last season, and that unit remains intact. However, the Niners revamped their wide receiver corps in the off-season, adding Mario Manningham and Randy Moss, and Michael Crabtree in now another year wiser, and that made the offense look formidable last week. Quarterback Alex Smith could be in line for his best season ever thanks to those receivers, and he was outstanding in Week 1 while completing 20-of-26 passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns with no picks. And do not forget about running back Frank Gore, who rushed for 112 yards on only 16 carries. Gore is a beast when he is healthy like he was last week, but unfortunately that is not very often. To that end, the Niners added some nice depth there too in Brandon Jacobs and rookie LaMichael James, and Kendall Hunter seems ready to break out in his second season,
On the other hand, the Lions had a devil of a time getting by the lowly St. Louis Rams, needing a rally to win 27-23 on a touchdown pass to Kevin Smith with only 10 seconds remaining. Before being too rough on Detroit however, consider that Schwartz was an assistant coach under Rams' coach Jeff Fisher for eight years while the two were in Tennessee, so St. Louis had a good idea of what the Lions were going to do. Besides, Detroit did win the yardage war 429-250, although the Lions obviously do not figure to move the ball that easily vs. the stout San Francisco defense. Still, Matthew Stafford does have a quick release that can beat the 49ers' pass rush and he obviously has one of the best receiving corps in the NFL to get the ball to, led by Calvin Johnson, who is impossible to cover by any defense. Also, the Detroit defensive front four can get to the quarterback just as well as the Niners can, although Alex Smith can exploit the suspect Detroit back seven if he can duplicate last week's performance.
Last year's meeting did stay 'under' the total, making the 'under' a perfect 6-0 in the last six head-to-head meetings. The 49ers are now 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings, and the Lions are 0-4 ATS the last four times they have been installed as road underdogs.
SPORTS WAGERS
Pittsburgh -120 over CHICAGO
The bad news is that the Pirates are choking miserably. The good news is they snapped a seven-game losing streak yesterday and wake up today just two games out of a Wild Card because the teams’ ahead of them, St. Louis and Atlanta are slumping too.
There’s more good news. They get to face Chris Volstad here. Volstad has three wins in 17 starts. He walks too many, he doesn’t strike out many and his 5.04 xERA comes with a full lack of skills support. Blame the long ball. Blame ball four. Blame April and May when he posted a 7.46 ERA in 41 IP. There’s plenty of blame to go around. No insights. No answers. No solutions. Just lots and lots of blame.
By contrast, Jeff Locke has 13 K’s, a 57% groundball rate and just one walk in his brief 15 inning career, covering just two starts and two relief appearances. Locke displayed solid numbers as a SP in 141 Triple-A innings: 2.48 ERA with a good strikeout rate, elite control and a solid groundball profile. In fact, it’s pretty much the exact same thing he’s shown at this level. The strikeouts come despite the lack of a high-octane fastball but his in-out-up-down repertoire has proven to be successful at every level. He pitches like a seasoned vet and he pitches with confidence. Frankly, this is a cheap price to pay to fade Chris Volstad.
MILWAUKEE -1½ +142 over N.Y. Mets
In 2010, Chris Young pitched seven scoreless innings on May 1 then was never heard from again, as his shoulder tear required surgery. Subsequently, some brief cameos saw good results but they didn't have strong skill support. Young’s extreme fly-ball profile this season of 59%, the highest in the majors of any pitcher with at least 10 starts, limits the venues where he could be successful. Milwaukee isn’t one of them. The Brewers are one of the most dangerous teams’ at home. They go yard often, they hit gappers and they score runs. Young is in line to get rocked here and the Mets’ bullpen is as unreliable as he.
Wily Peralta has only two major-league starts. He has been very durable since returning from Tommy John surgery in '07. With a fastball that sits in the low-to-mid-90s and touches 97, he can be dominant with one pitch. Due to his height and arm slot, he pitches downhill which often leaves hitters burying his fastball into the ground. In his 13 major league innings, he has a sweet groundball rate of 59%. It’s a small sample size but it’s a mark that he also had in the minors. The kid has natural, pure stuff.
All of a sudden the Brewers are in this thing, as they sit just 2½-games back in the Wild Card race. Allowing Chris Young and the Mets to beat them here would be devastating but with the way the Brewers are playing and swinging the sticks, we see the Brewers striking early and often and burying this soft intruder.
John Ryan
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers
10* graded play on the Pittsburgh Steelers as they take on the New York Jets set to start at 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, September, 16, 2012. The Jets Sanchez proved why he is the starting quarterback completing 19-of-27 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns. The Steelers Roethlisberger was a bit rusty, but was playing against a vastly tougher defensive Bronco unit. He completed 22-of-40 passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns.
Simulator Projections
The simulator shows a high probability that the Steelers will win this game by seven or more points. The simulator shows further projections that the Jets will score less than 21 points and that their defense will allow 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play. In past games, the Jets are 16-31 ATS when they have allowed 5.5 to 6.0 yards per play since 1992 and are 1-5 ATS when they score between 15 and 21 points over the past three seasons.
On the Steeler side of the ledger the simulator shows that they will outgain the Jets by 1.0 to 1.5 yards per play in this game. In past games where they have achieved this positive offensive differential, the Steelers are 21-8 ATS since 1992.
Supporting Systems
Here are two systems with the first one working in favor of the Steelers and the second working against the Jets. Both are valid euqally and serve only to support the simulator 10* grading on the Steelers.
This system has produced a record of 27-7 ATS for 79% winners since 1983. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points and is a good team from last season having outscored opponents by four or more points per game and after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This system has not lost in more than five season sporting a perfect 7-0 ATS record.
The second system has produced a 48-21 ATS record for 70% winners since 2006. Play against dogs or pick-em lines with a team that is off a win by 10 or more points and facing an opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
Key Matchup
The trench warfare will be won by the Steelers. I really believe that the size adn physicality of the Steelers front seven will dominate and disrupt the Jets offensive line. Let?s not forget that the Jets offensive line had a big day against Buffalo and that previous to this, they had allowed 22 sacks in the preseason. Steelers defensive front will get up field and force Sanchez into quick throws and not allow him time to see the field and get the ball to the correct receiver.
Last week, Sanchez, was given ample time to survey the field and was hardly under pressure throughout the game. He is a very good quarterback when given the time to execute the play and does have a good pocket awareness allowing him to extend the play too.
I expect offensive coordinator, Sparano, to implement some pocket movements with Sanchez sliding right in order to keep the Steeler defensive front from using twists and stunts in obvious passing situations. This serves to spread the defense, but the Steelers are excellent to react to any sort of rollout and are extremely good at perimeter containment.
Steelers could win this by 20.
Ray Monohan
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: New Orleans Saints
The Saints beat the Panthers twice last season and they have not lost to them since the 2009 season. NFL lines have the Saints as 2.5-point away favorites with a total of 51. The Saints' run defense really struggled against the Redskins and they need to keep Williams and Newton from peeling off big runs. I expect more from the Saints in Week 2. Cam Newton passed for over 300 yards in the opening game last week, but he was picked off 3 times and Carolina only scored 10 points. N Drew Brees lit up the Panthers' secondary for 389 yards and five touchdowns in last year's second meeting, a 45-17 New Orleans romp. The Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall, are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC South. The Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 2, are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in September, and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Jesse Schule
San Francisco vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona
The Giants have won four straight ballgames, and they now find themselves running away with the NL West, 7.5 games ahead of the Dodgers. They will face Arizona at Chase Field tonight, with the opportunity to sweep the D'Backs in the final game of the series.
Ryan Vogelsong will get the nod for San Francisco, and he is coming off back to back losses, including a terrible outing against Arizona. Voglesong (12-8, 3.40 ERA) allowed four runs on six hits over five innings in a 6-5 loss to the Rockies in his last start. Prior to that he was torched by the D'Backs, allowing six runs on nine hits, leaving the game early in the fourth inning in an 8-6 loss.
Aaron Hill has had his way with Vogelsong, hitting .500 with a double and a home run in 10 at bats lifetime.
Patrick Corbin will get the call for Arizona, and he is without a win in his last four starts. Corbin (5-7, 4.19 ERA) hasn't been that bad, he has also been plagued with a lack of run support. He allowed three runs on six hits over five innings, losing 8-2 in San Diego his last time out.
The Diamondbacks are in a good spot to avoid the sweep here, I suggest a look at a play on Arizona.
Andre Gomes
Redskins / Rams Under 43.5
I expect the Rams offense to struggle today, mostly due to their Offensive Line being back to a horrible level. With Scott Wells in the Injury Reserve and with Rodger Saffold also out for today, the Rams' OL will be back to the poor level that made them the most sacked team in the league last season. Washington has an overall decent defense barring their secondary, but Sam Bradford has been unable to make big plays, so I believe the Redskins will be able to put a lot of pressure on Bradford, while also limiting St Louis' running game in this contest.
On the other hand, I also expect a letdown from Griffin's amazing performance last week against the Saints. He won't have Pierre Garcon on the field today and their receiving corps lacks quality to compensate such absence in the field. The Rams seem to be an improved defensive team from last season with Jeff Fisher as head coach and without the massive number of injuries on defense that they had last season, so I expect them to be able to limit Washington's passing game and also their running game which is quite average.
I expect the Rams to try to make this game a very physical contest, with a lot of running plays. I believe St Louis will struggle so much on the Offensive Line that they won't be able to do anything special on offense today, while the Rams have a decent defense and they should be able to limit Griffin on a letdown spot. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.
Tony George
Steelers -5 vs NY Jets
Going to take the Steelers here and I think they win with ease. Having a few starters out on defense is well documented for Pitt. But their talented wide receivers are going to go up against the Jets secondary without Stud Revis who is out for this game and did not make the trip. That now calls for zone coverage for NY and Big Ben can pick apart a zone coverage with time. Pitt is in a foul mood after last weeks beat down at Denver and Denver's defense is better than the Jets who still allowed the Bills offense which is woeful 28 points last week at home in a blowout. NY a paper tiger right now in my opinion and Sanchez faces a much tougher test on the road this week against an elite AFC team in their home opener after loss.
Dave Price
Cleveland Browns +7
The Bengals aren't deserving of this much respect after the way they were spanked by Baltimore. The Browns only lost to Philly by 1 point in Week 1, and I expect them to keep this one within the number as well. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. The Bengals are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the AFC and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the AFC North. Lastly, the underdog is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Take the points.
Chip Chirimbes
NY Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers
Do you think that the Steelers will have Tebow on their minds as the Jets take the field on Sunday. The last play of their 2011 season saw Tebow complete an 80-yard touchdown pass in playoff overtime. Good bye Pittsburgh and months later good bye Tebow. So here they meet against but Sanchez and the weak Jets running game will be exposed early and often as Pittsburgh dominated form start to finish.
Richard Whitt
Jaguars +7.5
Texans are healthy and imposing, but they have a long history of not steamrolling foes on the road when faced with spreads at this level, and the Blaine Gabbert-led Jags are hungry, and unlikely to go quietly. They don't give teams extra credit in the standings for road routs, so expect this to be tight when the final whistle blows.
Bill Milton
Tampa Bay (+) over Giants
Look for Big Blue to find a way to win this one outright, but we like what we saw of Tampa Bay and Greg Schiano last week and see them keeping this one close, especially since the Giants are 4-12 ATS as chalk of more than three points.