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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September, 16

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Tony Stoffo

Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins

Going with the dog here as my free play for today as I like the matchup that favors the Marlins with Latos going against Nolasco. First off Latos for the Reds just doesn't pitch well against the Marlins as his 0-3 record with a 8.81 and 2.081 WHIP will attest to. While add in the fact that Nolasco has been super sharp as of late with a 0.36 ERA and 0.760 WHIP over his last 3 games, and you can see how we have a very live underdog in this spot today.

 
Posted : September 16, 2012 10:36 am
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Jeff Alexander

Oakland Raiders -2

Oakland finds itself in a tough situation as it makes the cross-country trip to Miami on a short week. Still, I can't help but like the Raiders here. Miami rookie QB Ryan Tannehill showed he clearly isn't ready to be a starter in the NFL throwing three interceptions with no touchdown passes and only completing 55.6 percent of his throws in his NFL debut. Oakland has the big edge at QB with veteran Carson Palmer, who completed 69.6 percent of his passes for 297 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions in Week 1. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Dolphins are a terrible 21-49-1 ATS in their last 71 home games. Bet Oakland.

 
Posted : September 16, 2012 10:37 am
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Chuck O'Brien

My free winner for Sunday is going to be the total in the NFC South clash between the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints, as I take the high road, and play the total Over 52 points.

After the first week of the season, it's no surprise the Saints have the second-ranked passing offense in the league. Though they lost at home to the Washington Redskins, the Saints picked up 326 yards of offense through the air, in their 40-32 loss.

Now playing with a must-win attitude, I suspect we're going to see the Saints on another offensive surge, with hopes of lighting up the Panthers' defense, and getting them to engage in a shootout.

Carolina's offense was paced by its rushing game last week, and sure it's safe to assume they're going to want to run the ball today, eat up clock and keep the score low; but I think with Cam Newton, the Panthers should be open to an offensive challenge.

Look for these two to pour it on, and the score to run high.

1♦ Saints/Panthers OVER

 
Posted : September 16, 2012 10:38 am
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Matt Rivers

Saturday free play winner on UCLA, now a 17-9 run ALL for free.

Free NFL play goes out on the rested-and-ready New York Giants at home against Tampa Bay.

The Giants have been off since losing that opening Wednesday night to Dallas, so they should be plenty ready to go against this Tampa team that was a 16-10 winner at home over Carolina in Greg Schiano's coaching debut.

The former Rutgers coach is now back in the familiar grounds of north New Jersey, but don't expect the Giants to roll out the red carpet for him!

New York dropped to 7-15-1 against the spread as a home favorite with the Dallas setback, but they are the more polished of the two units on the field this afternoon, and the Giants pass rush figures to bother Josh Freeman all afternoon long.

Tampa Bay failed six of their eight games last season when installed as the road underdog, and with just 16-points scored in their opening week win I would say I need to see more evidence that the Bucs can consistently move the ball before I back them catching only a touchdown.

Go with the rested Giants to get on board with the home win and cover.

4♦ N.Y. GIANTS

 
Posted : September 16, 2012 10:39 am
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Jeff Benton

Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Lions-49ers Sunday night affair from the City by the Bay.

Both teams played Overs last Sunday, the Lions combining with the Rams for 50-points, while the Niners and Packers combined for 52-points in their game at Lambeau Field.

Detroit has become quite an Over team lately, as last week's high-scoring game pushed the Lions to 24-12-2 Over the total in their last 38 games dating back to the 2009 campaign.

San Francisco opened last season at Candlestick Park with three straight Overs, and did wind up heading Over the total in four of their first five played on their home gridiron.

Just too many weapons on the field today, so the best bet here is to take Detroit and San Francisco to play Over the total.

4♦ DETROIT-SAN FRANCISCO OVER

 
Posted : September 16, 2012 10:39 am
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Craig Davis

Today's free play is on the Dallas Cowboys over Seattle.

Seattle clearly didn't play their best game in a 20-16 loss at Arizona last week, but then again, they have always been a better home team than road team.

Dallas, on the other hand, played one of their better openers in three years with a 24-17 win over the Giants in Week 1. Tony Romo was very impressive and the offensive line did just enough to get the running game going.

The Cowboys defense was most impressive, holding the Giants to several three-and-outs while keeping the defending champs out of the end zone much of the night. It's amazing what a decent secondary can do for you.

Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said offensive tackle Russell Okung will be a game-time decision because of a bone bruise on his left knee, and that's actually considerable good news for the Seahawks considering his past injury history.

Also, TE Zach Miller is questionable for today’s game because of his lingering foot issue.

For Dallas, NT Jay Ratliff is the biggest hole for the Cowboys, missing his second straight game. But when you have DeMarcus Ware and Anthony spencer bringing so much pressure from the outside, it doesn't matter nearly as much.

Should be a good game to watch, but in the end the Cowboys have had 10 days to get ready for this game and will come in a little fresher and fully focused on the task at hand. Plus, Tony Romo is 3-0 vs. Seattle in the regular season as a starting QB.

Take Dallas as your free play of the day.

4♦ DALLAS

 
Posted : September 16, 2012 10:40 am
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Scott Delaney

My free winner for Sunday is on the Over with the Rams and Redskins, meeting in St. Louis. We saw last week, Robert Griffin III usher in a new era and new brand of football for our nation's capital, and I don't think there was any fluke about it. I don't think the Redskins are done by any bit, showing the league what to expect this season.

It should come as no surprise the Redskins have the league's No. 1 overall offense after the first week of the season, led by the No. 1 passing game. En route to tallying 459 yards against the Saints - in New Orleans - the 'Skins picked up 306 through the air.

Today should be no different, as I'm pretty sure the Redskins will push the tempo and force the Rams into an uptempo game, and get this number up. I'm shocked the oddsmakers are challenging each team here to score about 22 points per game, cause I don't think that's going to be an issue one bit.

St. Louis will have no choice but to play keep up, cause I don't think it has the horses to stop the RGIII and company. After the first week of the season, the Rams rank 28th overall defense. Thus, they need to get into gear and score points. I don't think that should be too much of an issue, since the Redskins rank 20th overall.

Look for a shootout.

2♦ OVER

 
Posted : September 16, 2012 10:41 am
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Chris Jordan

My free winner for Sunday takes us to East Rutherford, New Jersey, where I'm playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, plus the points, against the New York Giants in a crucial matchup. The Buccaneers are in after a confidence-building, season-opening win over NFC South-foe Carolina, while the Giants are in off their loss to the Cowboys. The Giants have had more time to prepare, but something tells me it won't be enough.

I was impressed with how the Buccaneers played last week in its 16-10 win over the Panthers, kicking off the Greg Schiano era in a way that already has Tampa brewing with excitement. And what I liked about this team was it didn't necessarily shine ine one specific spot - it did everything right, on a whole.

Whether it was the running game of Doug Martin or quarterback Josh Freeman's leadership under center, the offense was rock solid in balancing its act throughout the game, despite only 16 points scored. As for the defense, how about how it shut down Carolina quarterback sensation Cam Newton? The Bucs' stop unit held the big black cats to 10 yards rushing.

The Giants are so desperate, and even banged up, they pulled a rare practice move in having the starters go against starters this week. They looked out of sync versus the Cowboys, and I think there are too many questions with Tom Coughlin's boys. They could be in big trouble against a rising Bucs team.

3♦ BUCCANEERS

 
Posted : September 16, 2012 10:41 am
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Bob Balfe

Minnesota Vikings -3

No Dwight Freeney for the Colts means trouble for this defense. He is the clear leader of a unit with a lot of new faces on it this year. The Vikings are always a threat with Adrian Peterson, but the real key in this game is the lack of a solid offensive line for the Colts. Indianapolis’s entire offensive line was not in this system last year as they played for other teams and without Collie in the lineup I just do not see Luck having much Luck. This team is young and inexperienced and the Vikings front four should sack Luck and gets some picks behind a veteran defensive backfield that will lure him into bad passes. I think Minnesota will win this game with ease. Take the Vikings.

Detroit Tigers -150

Its clear the Indians have tanked it for the season as they have looked horrible down the stretch. The message for this game is simple. Detroit needs to win these games against weaker opponents or they will not make the playoffs. The Tigers are trying to make one last push with a few weeks to go and need to win these types of games. Take Detroit.

 
Posted : September 16, 2012 11:05 am
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Stan Lisowski

Indianapolis +3

Minnesota is on some not-so-good runs here with a 4-11 straight up mark away from home, an 0-6 outright run in opposing domes, and a 5-game winless streak on the road against AFC clubs. Overall in away non-conference matchups, Minny is a 21% spread proposition the last 7 seasons. Home dogs kicking off the opener of a 3-game home set cover to the tune of 60+%winners over this past decade.

 
Posted : September 16, 2012 11:06 am
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