Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 18,2011

Brad Diamond Sports

San Diego + over New England

Even before the Patriots played on Monday in their initial battle with Miami, the lines makers installed the Chargers as a 6.5 point UNDERDOG. That should be great news for those of you who love real value in a football game. Last time we gave you Dallas as our NFL GAME OF THE WEEK using line value as one of the key elements. This time around, our charts indicate a similar scenario is on-deck up in Foxboro. Let’s look at New England, initially as we find the chalk playing their first home game of the season before going up to Buffalo next weekend. The Pats have won 9 straight home openers accruing a 5-3-1 ATS in that run. In their last meeting New England stopped San Diego 23-20 at San Diego, but rushed for only 2.3 yards per carry. Although this is in NE, the Pats will need to create a balanced offensive approach here, or the Chargers will win the whole game. San Diego enters this season with their third coach in the L10 years Norv Turner (5th season). Turner’s teams have a history of starting slow (2-5 SU LY) and they did so again last Sunday, escaping Minnesota on the coast 24-17. Actually, the “Padres” out first downed the Vikes 31-10, but were out gained on the ground as the Vikings defensive front allowed just 2.9 yards per carry. Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson scorched San Diego for 98 yards and 6.1 ypc. Percy Harvin’s kick-off return kept an early lead safe until the fourth quarter. Interesting, new QB Donovan McNabb of Minnesota was inept (7-15, 39) throughout. In contrast, we note QB Rivers was forcing throws, although accruing over 300 yards in the air, the 2 interceptions really hurt the Chargers backers ATS. This Sunday, we see a turnaround in game planning by head coach Norv Turner. After all this is a REVENGE situation, so the Chargers should show with more emotion, albeit traveling to the east coast. The Pats have lost both SU & ATS their second game of the season going back to 2009. Our early look this week goes to San Diego plus the points.

Tony Stoffo

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

Tampa Bay at Minnesota In a week that saw the biggest offensive yardage explosion in the history of the NFL. The Vikings could only manage 1 offensive touchdown and only 187 total yards. So in my opinion their definitely a false favorite here against a Buccaneers team that looked ok against a very solid Lions Defense. The Buccaneers gained 315 yards and moved the ball - their downfall was that they were only 1-4 in the redzone - I look for improvement in this category as the coaches will be stressing the redzone plays all week long. . Saying this here is another game where the public will be all over the home favorite - However Tampa Bay and the points are the way to go here.

Stephen Nover

Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins -3½

It's becoming clear that Washington is much improved in Year 2 of the Mike Shanahan era.

There is talent on defense, an underrated wide receiving group and the locker room atmosphere is healthier with Albert Haynesworth, Donovan McNabb and Clinton Portis removed from the scene. The team is more focused without the distractions of those three controversial veterans.

The question here is are the Redskins improved enough to cover more than a field goal at home against Arizona?

I say the answer is yes. The Redskins are far better defensively than the Cardinals. The Cardinals hosted Carolina last week. Their strategy was to key on DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The result of that was Cam Newton throwing for 422 yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut. Newton never threw for 400 yards when he was at Auburn and at Blinn Junior College.

The Redskins have a more balanced attack than Carolina. Tim Hightower is an excellent fit in Shanahan's zone-run blocking scheme. He also knows the Cardinals well from having been there the previous three seasons.

Rex Grossman has run hot and cold throughout his NFL career, usually more cold than hot. But Shanahan has coached Grossman up. Grossman also has a number of quality targets. The Redskins lack a receiving star, but they have better depth at the position than many teams. It was estimated that 70 percent of Grossman's first-look targets last week against the Giants were open.

Look for Grossman to have another strong game as Arizona is weak at linebacker and inexperienced at cornerback with two first-year starters.

The Cardinals are potentially explosive. But right now Kevin Kolb is a work in progress learning a new system. The Redskins held five of eight foes to less than 17 points at home last year.

Arizona doesn't travel well. The Cardinals have failed to cover seven of the past eight times as a road 'dog. This is a cross-country trip for the Cardinals with an early start time for them. That doesn't bode well.

The Redskins are a serious darkhorse contender to win the NFC East. They are a step above the Cardinals. Throw in home-field advantage with a solid situational edge and it should mean Washington wins this game by a touchdown or more.

Ultimate Sport Picks

San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -6.5

This is a game you do not want to miss. We already saw the NFC quarterback showdown last week with the Saints (Drew Brees) vs the Packers (Aarron Rodgers), now it is the AFC's turn. Phillip Rivers and the Chargers vs the Patriots and Tom Brady. These are two offenses that really like to spread you out and use high tempo to get the defense out of position. It will be interesting to see if both teams will do this in this game, or maybe try to slow the ball game down to keep the opposing quarterback off the field. But, we think both teams will stay with what they do best and that is attack with passing and high tempo. We think this plays into the patriots hands more, they have the home crowd noise and a defense that is more likely to come up with some big stops. And that is what we think this game will come down to, which defense can make some stops, and that should be the Patriots.

SPORTS WAGERS

ATLANTA +110 over Philadelphia

The “Dream Team” went into St. Louis last week and won handily. Are we supposed to be impressed with anything other than Michael Vick’s ability to run? If so, we’re not. Vick went 14-42 for 167 yards through the air and that’s without a lot of pressure by the Rams. They racked up 236 yards on the ground and that was the difference. The 31-13 final was not an accurate account of what happened on the field. The Rams receivers dropped pass after pass after pass. St. Louis racked up 154 yards on the ground and they out-gained the Eagles through the air. Everything went the Eagles way. While it’s still early, the Falcons need to turn things around before this trickle turns into a stream. Despite a poor start for the Falcons, this is still a step up for the visitor. Perhaps Atlanta was looking ahead to this game or perhaps they just weren’t ready for the opener. What we do know is they’ll be ready this week. Quality teams that get embarrassed often have a huge bounce back game and the Falcons are a quality team. With Matt Ryan behind center, Atlanta has won 20 of past 22 regular season home games. With an improved pass rush, a bruising running game and an opportunity to unwelcome Michael Vick back to Atlanta, this one becomes a huge statement game for a quality host on prime time TV. Philly is not as good as the media makes them out to be. Play Atlanta +110 (Risking 2 units).

TENNESSEE +6½ over Baltimore

The Ravens wanted that game last week against Pittsburgh badly. They were sick of losing to the Steelers and even sicker about hearing about it all the time. They put all that to rest and they’ve been reading about how good they are all week. It would be difficult to knock the Ravens after their dismantling of rival Steelers, nor will we try. However, Baltimore ’s intensity level for that game will not be applied here and that affords us a chance to back the less popular choice. The Titans looked awful in week one loss to Jacksonville. Awful is an understatement. Granted, the Titans are no great shakes but they were not quite ready with Chris Johnson missing most of camp and Matt Hasselbeck and new coaching staff playing first real game together with new team. Johnson had just 15 touches last week. Hasselbeck now has a game under his belt and we’re going to see a different Hasselbeck than the one we saw last week. Hasselbeck had great success in Seattle with lesser talent than he has here. He found a rhythm in the 2nd half of his team’s loss last week and that could carry over against the Ravens thinning secondary. Expect a close one or a straight up Titans win. We see a +6½ at Sportsinteraction while most have this at +5½ so if you don’t have a SIA account, we would still play it at +5½. Play: Tennessee +6½ (Risking 2.1 units).

San Diego +6½ over NEW ENGLAND

6½ points? For real? While New England’s offense can be downright scary, its defense can be frightening but not in the same way. Miami’s Chad Henne threw for 416 yards against this secondary and the Dolphins were a half-yard away from making that game very interesting with six minutes to go. What will the league’s top passer from a year ago, Philip Rivers, do with his full arsenal running amok? Let’s also not ignore that Monday night game was played in extreme heat where even the refs were cramping up. How inflated is this price? Well, let’s go back to the NFL’s season opener in which Green Bay, considered the best team in the league, were just a 4½-point choice over New Orleans. Is this a bigger mismatch than that? The line says it is but we beg to differ. New England remains a public team and thus, price gets inflated. That is especially true after the Pats play pitch and catch on national television. But this is a top-ranked Chargers defense that has capable personnel and a team as a whole that is not intimidated by its host. Chargers can win outright. Play: San Diego +6½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

INDIANAPOLIS +115 over Cleveland

Let’s say you’re a member of the Colts. Imagine waking up Monday morning and seeing that you’re a dog at home to the Browns. That’s insulting, not to mention motivating. Yes, the Colts were manhandled on the road, against a talented and motivated divisional foe. But Cleveland lost at home to the Bengals and while the Colts were expected to lose as a nine-point pooch, the Brownies were expected to win as a 6½-point choice. Had this game been played in week one, the Colts would’ve been a four-point favorite but week two lines are largely based on week one results. The Colts still have weapons with two excellent deep threats in the passing game and a running back in Joseph Addai that is capable of a big game. Indy also has a tremendous pass-rush tandem with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis and that’s potentially big trouble for a young Colt McCoy. Meanwhile, the Brownies have no pass rush whatsoever and given time Kerry Collins is an accurate passer. A banged up Browns team with low morale and less talent does not warrant this tag. Cleveland favored at this venue is ludicrous. Play: Indianapolis +115 (Risking 2 units).

Dallas –3 +100 over SAN FRANCISCO

It’s not customary for us to lay road points and if we lose this game, shame on us. What we know for sure is that the Boys have to bring it this week after giving one away against a quality Jets club last Sunday night. Tony Romo keeps finding ways to lose but he’s one of the most talented QB’s in the game and he’s heads above water better than that stiff Alex Smith. Dallas played a great game last week in New York. They were moving the chains, they played good defense and everything was in place for a win until two late turnovers, both by Romo. Romo can’t let that happen again. What we see on paper is another blown game by Romo and a 16-point San Fran win over Seattle. What you may or may not know is that the 49ers 16-point win was the most misleading score of the week. Seattle had 18 first downs to the 49ers 12. Seattle passed for 155 yards while San Fran passed for 124. When Seattle outplays you at home you’ve got bigger problems than a bad QB. Apparently the new head coach doesn’t see the easily distinguishable connection between Alex Smith and the unemployment line. San Fran is unwatchable. Their offense is about as exciting as a quilt festival. The Boys are far superior in every way and it’s one thing to come in here after a big win but that’s not the case. The Cowboys come in here after a bad loss and suddenly they’re in jeopardy of starting the year 0-2. That’s not going to happen against the worst team in football. Play: Dallas –3 +100 (Risking 2 units).

Survivor Pick

DETROIT over Kansas City:

The Chiefs were down by 14 points to the Buffalo Bills by the end of the first quarter last week and ended up having to play catch-up football. They can’t. The Chiefs have injuries, inside turmoil, coaching changes and no Charlie Weis as Matt Cassels QB coach. The Lions are truly a contender. They’re loaded offensively and they just keep getting better. Detroit now opens at home and they’ll be as motivated as ever to keep the excitement in Detroit rolling right along. KC can’t score nor can they defend and they’ll probably lose by four TD’s.

Raiders (1-0) at Bills (1-0)

One of only four games that feature undefeated teams. Who woulda thunk it? While the Bills do have some legit talent, this may not be a good match up for them. Raiders like to pound the rock and Buffalo’s run defense is a liability. Da Rrrrrraiders hang around here. TAKING: RAIDERS +3 +105 Pin

Bears (1-0) at Saints (0-1)

What will it take for folks to buy into the Bears? They won the NFC North last year while starting this campaign off with an impressive dismissal of a formidable Falcons bunch. Still, oddsmakers feel the Saints are worthy of spotting a full touchdown. Prove it. Bears will dedicate game to Brian Urlacher’s mom and will play extra hard for their beloved teammate. TAKING: BEARS +6½ bet365

Cardinals (1-0) at Redskins (1-0)

It scares us when a game looks too easy and this one more than qualifies. Washington ’s sturdy defense is quite capable of stopping an unrefined Arizona offense. More importantly, how bad is the Cardinal defense if neophyte Cam Newton can carve them up for 422 yards through the air? TAKING: REDSKINS –3½

Chiefs (0-1) at Lions (1-0)

Don’t expect letdowns by this Detroit team anytime soon. After suffering through an epic 4-40 drought, this emerging bunch has suddenly won a legitimate five straight regular season games. Conversely, the Chiefs are a mess with no real remedy in sight. TAKING: LIONS –8½

Seahawks (0-1) at Steelers (0-1)

Seahawks are dreadful but still can’t pull the trigger on a Steelers team that lost by 28 points and are now being asked to spot in excess of two touchdowns. The Steelers play the NFC West this year, which subconsciously has them easing up at times like this. TAKING: SEAHAWKS +14½

Packers (1-0) at Panthers (0-0)

The champs looked unstoppable in opener. They’ll have had 10 days rest prior to facing a rebuilding team with a rookie quarterback. So how do we endorse the doggie here? Simple. We hope the Packers are overlooking this one in anticipation of a trip to Chicago next week. TAKING: PANTHERS +9½

Buccaneers (0-1) at Vikings (0-1)

It’s official. Minnesota is where old quarterbacks go to die. The Bucs may not be ready to compete at the next level but they can certainly hold their own against riffraff like the Vikings. Minnesota is old and lacks an identity. Tampa has played well on the road with nine covers in past 10 away. Better team is taking points. TAKING: BUCCANEERS +3

Texans (0-0) at Dolphins (0-0)

If it looks like a trap and smells like a trap it usually is a trap. Texans known to disappointment after big wins and after clobbering Manning-less rival, same could happen here. Miami ’s defense is better than it showed versus Patriots last week while offense feeling better about their previously pedestrian unit. TAKING: DOLPHINS +3

Jaguars (1-0) at Jets (1-0)

One can be a force while the other is a fraud. The Jaguars were fortunate to defeat the Titans in opener. Jacksonville won’t have the luxury of playing at home or against a quarterback guiding a new team. Without a pass rush to contend with, Jets offense gets time to exploit subpar visitor. TAKING: NY JETS –9½

Bengals (1-0) at Broncos (0-1)

John Fox likes to run. RB Knowshon Moreno had eight carries for 22 yards while Willis McGahee ran four times for 3 yards. Without a passing game to offset this ineptitude, we can’t rationalize backing Denver as chalk, especially against a decent Cincinnati defense. TAKING: BENGALS +4½

James Patrick Sports

Packers vs. Panthers

The World Champion Green Bay Packers looked very sharp on offense in their opener and the Packers should have a lot of opportunities against a Panthers defense that was often unorganized last week. The Packers have three extra days of rest to get ready for this game and Carolina is (0-8) ATS in September games over the last (3) seasons. Packers DC Dom Capers has been cracking the whip in preparation for this match-up after the Panthers Fired him and we'll see a solid Defensive effort from Green Bay here. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday complimentary selection is Green Bay Packers.

Nelly

Green Bay - over Carolina

The Packers have a few things to shore up defensively after nearly allowing a comeback bid in an exciting opening game. Green Bay looked very sharp on offense and the Packers should have a lot of opportunities against a Panthers defense that was often unorganized last week. Cam Newton was impressive last week but this is a big jump in class and Green Bay has the advantage of having some film on the rookie and seeing how rookie Coach Ron Rivera plans to run the offense. Carolina could end up being a strong ATS team as the offense proved to have potential but hanging with Arizona is a much different result than hanging with the champs.

Marc Lawrence

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins need a big effort today off that embarrassing Monday Night defensive performance against the Patriots and their 5-1 ATS log as dogs versus the AFC South – along with their 14-7-1 ATS mark as home dogs of three or more points – says they get it. Couple that with the Texans’ 2-9-1 ATS record in the second of back-back roadies along with their 3-13 ATS non-division record in September and you can see why Houston may have a problem this afternoon in the south Florida heat. Yes, the Texans first-half romp over the Colts makes it easy to look past the faulty Fish pass defense but this is a bad sandwich game for Kubiak’s crew with the Saints and Steelers on deck. And that sandwich whets our appetite today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

MTi Sports

Packers at Panthers
Prediction: Under

The Packers will make it very difficult for the Panthers to score here. Carolina was aggressive on offense vs a weak Cardinals squad and here the Packers should play smashmouth football and take full advantage of Cam Newtons inexperience. Green Bay is 0-11 OU (-14.9 ppg) after a straight up win at home as a favorite. The SDQL text is simply: team=Packers and p:WHF and 20091025<=date Check out those margins! For what it?s worth, the Panthers are 0-6 OU (-8.1 ppg) at home when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date and 0-9 OU (-6.0 ppg) after any game in which they held the lead at the end of the third quarter. Newton?s stats wont look nearly as good this week. Take the UNDER.

Rob Vinciletti

Raiders vs. Bills
Play: Over 42.5

This game fits a nice total system that has cashed 17 of 21 times and plays to the over in game 2 when we have 2 conference teams one of which is off a double digit road win and the total in the game is 35 or higher. Oakland has played over in 8 of 11 vs the AFC East, 6 of 8 in the second of back to back road games, while Buffalo has gone over in 6 of 7 as a favorite of 2 or more off a double digit road win and 3 of the last 4 in the first of back to back home games and the last 4 times at home after allowing 7 or less in their last game. In the series 12 of 15 long term have played over total. Look for this one to follow suit.

Teddy Covers

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Cleveland Browns -1.5

The Colts weren’t going to be a very good team with Peyton Manning on the field in 2011. Without him, my power ratings have Indy ranked among the bottom three teams in the NFL. They absolutely deserve to be home underdogs to Cleveland on Sunday. The Browns -- who just lost to Cincinnati at home by a double digit margin – are the better of these two teams. And when a formerly elite team like Indy falls, it can take quite a while for the betting markets to catch up. This Colts team is worth fading every week until they cover.

Kerry Collins is a familiar name to bettors – he’s been bouncing around the league since the 90’s, and he had some success in a ‘fill in’ role in his last stop at Tennessee. As we clearly saw last week in Houston, Kerry Collins is no longer a capable fill-in. He’s 39 years old, well past the time when NFL QB’s melt down into has-beens. He’s forced to run an extremely complex offense – an offense that Peyton Manning went 3-13 in his first year as the starter trying to run – with a month to learn it. Collins was not an effective QB with the Titans last year – there’s a reason Tennessee dumped him to bring in a slightly less tired retread (Matt Hasselbeck) this past offseason. And he was awful last week at Houston, not likely to be significantly improved here.

QB is only one of the myriad of Colts problems. Their offensive line is in complete flux right now. Rookie Anthony Castonzo is starting at left tackle. Left guard Joe Rietz will also be making his second career start this week. Ryan Diem is moving from right tackle to right guard. Undrafted Jeff Linkenbach is moving to right tackle. Indy’s front seven on defense looks awful; their secondary is not much better. The Colts special teams continue to rank at the bottom of the NFL. I’ll happily bet against the Colts in a price range where they need the SU win in order to cover the pointspread. Take the Browns

Carlo Campanella

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -4½

Cincinnati comes off an opening week victory while Denver lost at home on Monday night football, but Denver played much better football. Denver lost to Oakland 23-20, but QB Orton completed 24 of 46 passes for 272 yards. He should have no trouble finding open receivers against a Bengals' defense that trailed until the 4th quarter against a Browns offense that was clearly still learning their new west coast offensive system. Denver is 7-2 SU during the last nine meetings in this series and benefit from back-to-back home games while the Bengals' rookie QB Dalton must start his career playing two consecutive road games. Denver held the quick Raiders offense to just 289 total offensive yards and are a solid unit that will confuse this rookie QB Dalton.

RICK NEEDHAM

Packers (-10.5) at Panthers

Cam Newton was impressive in his debut as the starting quarterback of the Carolina Panthers, but it still ended in a bittersweet defeat in the opener. Now the rookie will try and lead the Panthers past the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers for his first professional victory, when the Packers travel to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte for a week two NFC clash. Newton, the former Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall pick in last year’s NFL draft, threw for 422 yards and two scores in his NFL debut but the Panthers still wound up short in the Arizona desert, 28-21. But after performing better than most people expected, including poise and a knowledge of the playbook he has yet to show in his short stint as a pro, Newton and the Panthers are looking for a big splash like the kind of one an upset over the Packers in his home debut would create. GB picked up right where they left off last February in their season opening, 42-34, victory over the New Orleans Saints, with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense looking nearly unstoppable. But before we crown them back-to-back champs there are plenty of flaws on defense for the Packers to work on, and the offense sputtered a little in the second half and nearly let the Saints back into the game, so don’t expect the Pack to be gracious guests in Bank of America Stadium on Sunday.

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas aren’t giving the Panthers much of a chance to spring an upset in this game, setting the opening point spread with the Packers as 10-point favorites on the road. So far the bettors going to the window agree, since there is enough early money coming in on Green Bay that it has moved the number up to 10.5-points at some of the offshore sportsbooks on the Web. The over/under total opened at 45.5 and has seen a bunch of early line movement in both directions, dropping as low as 45 at a few sportsbooks and as high as 46.5 at a few more, so shop around if you want to move the total a full point in your direction. Offensively the Panthers had a lot of bright spots despite the loss in the opener. They did tally 26 first downs, nearly twice as many as the Cardinals in the game. They also welcomed Steve Smith back to being relevant, as the veteran receiver “broke loose” for 178 yards and two touchdowns. But the Packers best defense is its offense, which looked in post-season form in the opener. After racing out to a 28-17 halftime lead the Packers offense did lose focus in the third quarter a little, but that may have been due to the blitzing style of the Saints defense, something Carolina might try and copy this weekend. The Panthers defense will try and contain Rodgers better than they contained Kevin Kolb of Arizona last week. Kolb was effective (309 yards, 2 TD) due to the fact he was not pressured very much (2 sacks), something the must get on Rodgers or he will pick them apart with his crew of receivers on the perimeter. It’s been a few years since these two have met on the gridiron, with the Panthers winning the last time they met in 2008 in a 35-31 shootout. The Packers outgained the Panthers 448-to-298 in the game, but they just couldn’t contain DeAngelo Williams who had four touchdown runs in the contest.

All told the Packers hold the edge in the series, winning six of the last 10 games straight up, while holding a slim 5-3-1 ATS advantage at the window for bettors. The over has been profitable of late too, cashing in for the last three games and in six of the last 10 as well (over is 6-3-1 since 1997). The Packers do seem to like Charlotte though, as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six visits to play in Carolina. The Packers are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite as well, giving bettors plenty of trends to follow if they so choose. The under wager is also a trend play this week, going 9-2 in the Packers last 11 games on the road and 4-0-1 in the last five games the Panthers were 10-point underdogs. In fact, the Panthers have gone under in 35 of their last 52 home games, a nearly 70 percent clip for those of you scoring at home (67.3%).

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: Double digit home dog and a team that played well on the road last week? Gimme those points! I'll TAKE THE PANTHERS to beat the spread!

DON WALLACE SPORTS

DALLAS vs SAN FRANCISCO
PLAY: DALLAS

Establishing the run may be a formidable task for San Francisco this week, as Dallas was able to shut down the Jets' usually strong ground game last Sunday. The Cowboys gave up a mere 45 rushing yards on 16 attempts for the night, with second-year linebacker Sean Lee leading the charge with an exceptional 11 tackle game. Lee also came up with a key second-half interception of New York quarterback Mark Sanchez that led to a Cowboys' touchdown, while sack specialist DeMarcus Ware once again ignited the team's pass rush by taking Sanchez to the turf two times. Dallas generated four sacks overall in the loss, but a depleted secondary was still torched for 315 net passing yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Cowboys will be going into Sunday's clash short-handed in the backfield as well, with cornerbacks Terence Newman (groin) and Orlando Scandrick (ankle) almost certain to sit out and top cover man Mike Jenkins fighting through a shoulder sprain. Dallas signed journeyman Frank Walker on Tuesday to add some much-needed depth, with converted safety Alan Ball slated to start opposite Jenkins this week. This is a dangerous game for the Cowboys, especially with San Francisco at home full of confidence from both last week's win and the new attitude Harbaugh has instilled. However, San Francisco remain a major work in progress on the offensive end, and although Dallas is banged up in the secondary, the defense is certainly good enough to keep Gore under wraps and take its offense out of its comfort zone. The numbers certainly dont favor Dallas in this one, 9-15 ATS last 23 on the highway. 3-9 ATS last 12 as road chalk. Nonetheless, you can throw all the technicals out, the Cowboys simply have too many weapons to be completely held in check, and San Francisco's is not built to win a game that suddenly turns out to be something of a shootout. DALLAS 31 SAN FRANCISCO 17