Michael Alexander
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5
TAMPA BAY 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf
TAMPA BAY is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog
MINNESOTA is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game
Bryan Power
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
PICK: Dallas Cowboys -3
I typically am not a 'huge fan' of NFL road favorites, but this line looks like a steal. The Cowboys look to bounce back from a 27-24 loss to the Jets (outgained NY) in San Francisco against a Niners team that is 0-6 ATS off its previous six ATS wins. The 49ers 33-17 win over Seattle was a lot closer than it appears considering they needed return man Ted Ginn to score twice on special teams to break the game open and earn the cover. When you also consider how poor the Seahawks are, that makes things even less impressive. SF is 1-5 ATS off a win by two touchdowns or more. The Niners offense will never be good as long as Alex Smith is the QB.
Black Widow
1* on Baltimore Ravens -5.5
Baltimore made some key offseason moves this season, and they are already starting to pay major dividends. The Ravens looked like the Super Bowl contenders we thought they'd be with a 35-7 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Baltimore rushed for 170 yards on the Steelers, which is no small feat. This defense is still one of the best in the league, and they forced seven turnovers en route to victory. Tennessee managed just 292 total yards in a 14-16 loss to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars last week. If they couldn't move the ball on Jacksonville, they don't have a chance to move it consistently against this stingy Ravens defense. Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. The Titans are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Ravens are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Tennessee. Take Baltimore and lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -139
The Rays have the edge on the hill with David Price, who is 8-4 on the road with an ERA of 3.20. He's won 4 of his last 5 starts against the Red Sox while not allowing more than 3 earned runs in any of those outings. Boston, meanwhile, has lost 7 of Tim Wakefield's last 9 starts against the Rays. The Rays have won 7 of the last 8 versus Boston. Take Tampa.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -110
Milwaukee has the decisive edge on the mound in this one. Cincinnati's Willis is 0-6 (3-9 on the money line) with an ERA of 5.04 in 12 starts this season. 4 of Cincy's last 5 losses with Willis on the hill have come by 2 runs or more. Greinke is 14-6 (18-7 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.98 in 25 starts. The Brewers have won 8 of his last 10 starts with 6 of those wins coming by a minimum of 2 runs. Also, Greinke is 2-0 (3-0 on the ML) when starting against Cincy with an ERA of 3.86. His teams have won these starts by an average of 3.3 runs. Take Milwaukee on the run line.
Patrick Webb
Seattle Seahawks vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -14
I love the Steelers to cover in this match up. Pittsburgh is coming off a terrible performance in week 1, have a huge advantage on both sides of the ball and get a bad Seattle team in the early slot on the eastern time zone. Seattle's Tavaris Jackson will likely struggle versus Pittsburgh's blitz schemes and he doesn't have any receivers that are likely to scare the Steelers. Marshawn Lynch is a talented back but is likely running into a buzz saw after the Steelers struggles versus the Raven running game.
Seattle gave up 19 points to a rough 49ers offense, and really struggled versus the 49ers Alex Smith. Pittsburgh has much better QB play and Roethlisberger is surrounded by much more talent on the outside. I look for Pittsburgh to build a lead early through the air and to pound away late with Rashard Mendenhall versus a tired defense.
Tony George
Green Bay -10
One of the best in the NFL versus one of the worst. Aaron Rodgers versus Cam Newton. That is a Super Bowl MVP against a rookie. Carolin's defense very suspect here against High octane attack of green Bay, who is well coached and will not come in here unprepared. Green Bays WR unit against this secondary is a mismatch and with the blitz packages Newton will see today, Turnovers will come into play. Green Bay 35 Carolina 10
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY (Total Of The Month)
Buffalo/ Oakland Over 42: A great spot for taking an over play is when a west coast team travels east. Since 2004 the Over is 15-3 when all west coast teams travel east during the 1st 5 weeks of the year, as long as the OU is 43 or less. The Bills showed good offense in their first game vs a weak Kansas City defense and they should have similar success vs an Oakland defense that will just not be the same without Nmamdi this year. Last year the Raiders allowed just 189 ypg through the air, but last week vs a suspect Broncos aerial game they allowed 272 yards. Now they take on a Bills offense that put up 364 yards (201 through the air) and 41 points vs the Chiefs last year. The Bills defense struggled vs the rush last year, allowing 170 ypg and they tried to shore up that area in the off season, but it doesn't look it. Last week they got off to a big lead vs KC that the Chiefs had to throw more and got them out of their running game, but when KC did run they did so for 108 yards and a whopping 6 ypc. Now what will an Oakland offense, that put up 190 yards and a 4.9 ypc average, do vs this defense. That's right. Run it down their throats. Normally I would side with an under when you have a team that likes to run but, I expect Oakland to get big chunks off yardage and not just 3 or 4 rads at a time, which would eat the clock. Let us also note that the Over is 10-0 since 1981 when week 2 teams (Buffalo) are off a SU road win of 28 or more. Both offenses are improved, while both defenses have a lot of work to do and that to me spells an EASY play on the Over here.
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Baltimore -5.5 over TENNESSEE: What a game the Ravens had last week as they used 7 TO's and 170 yards rushing to thoroughly dismantle the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now they will take on a Tennessee team that did not really play well on either side of the ball. On offense they struggled with just 14 points and 292 yards vs a suspect Jacksonville defense that came off a year in which they allowed 372 ypg and 26 ppg. Now they will face a dominant Baltimore defense that did a very good job vs a good Pittsburgh offense as they held the Steelers to just 312 yards and 7 points. The Ravens defense is one of the best in the league and should have little problems slowing down an anemic Tennessee offense. The holdout of Chris Johnson hurt him in the opener as he was able to run for just 24 yards and they will need that running game to take the pressure off of Hasselbeck, who had a good game last week, but is still learning the offense, plus the Jags defense is not the caliber of the Ravens defense, so don't expect him to have the same kind of success this week. Jim Harbaugh is 15-3 ATS as faves vs non-division teams and 10-2 ATS off a SU win vs an opponent off a SU & ATS loss, while the Titans are just 4-12 ATS vs a team with a winning record. The Raven's will keep the momentum they got last week by picking up another easy win here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Home teams off a road loss during the first month of the season after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 48-97 ATS (66%) since 1983.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
San Diego +7 over NEW ENGLAND: Last week San Diego kinda slept walked through their game with the Vikes, but they still put up 407 yards, including 330 through the air. This offense was ranked number 1 last year and this year they have all their working parts back this year with vincent Jackson returning, along with LT McNeil. This offense will be even better this year and today they will be taking on a Patriot defense that allowed a mediocre Miami offense to put up 488 yards (390 through the air) and 24 points. All the talk on the Patriots is always about their offense and yes they have a great one, but their defense has been going down for years and they don't seem to be addressing those issues. It's games like this vs teams that can match them point for point were having no defense will hurt. On the other side of the ball San Diego does have a defense as it was ranked #1 last year as well and started off good allowing just 10 points and 187 total yards to Minnesota, including 28 yards passing. I know there is no way that San Diego will hold this Pats offense to that low a total, but they won't allow him to throw for 400 of 500 yards either. I don't even expect them to allow 300 in this game. Last year special teams and TO's did San Diego in as they actually outgained the Pats by 320 yards in that game, so I really look for a better effort from them in those 2 areas today. Both teams have the ability to put up a ton of points, but only 1 team can stop anyone and that team is getting a TD. The Chargers are 21-8 ATS in a road game with a total at 45.5 or higher, while Norv Turner is 19-6 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 7. Go with the dog here and it may even be an outright upset as well. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Chargers are 16-0-1 ATS since 1994 as a dog off a game in which they were a 7+ favorite.
Detroit/ Kansas City Over 45: The Last 3 years the Over is 7-1 when interconference teams meet in week 2 an the OU line is 41 or higher. Let us also note that Detroit's last 7 home games vs a non-division opponent there has been an average of 60.1 ppg scored. Detroit's offense will be something special this year now that Mathew Stafford is healthy and he has plenty of weapons around him. Last week this Detroit offense put up 431 yards and 27 points vs a very good Tampa defense, and on the Bucs own field. Now this Detroit offense is on their fast track at home where they averaged 25.5 ppg overall last year, including 31.4 ppg vs non-division opponents. They should rack up some good numbers today vs a KC defense that allowed 364 yards and 41 points to a less than average Buffalo offense. Coming into the year I thought the KC offense would struggle now that Charlie Weis has moved on and they showed it in week one by putting up just 213 yards and 7 points vs a week Buffalo defense. Todd Haley has been taking heat for his conservative style of offense so I expect him to open up the playbook a bit vs this talented but you lions defense that played above their heads last week. The Over is 9-1 the week before Detroit takes on the Vikes, while the Over is 5-0 after KC scores 7 or less points. I say at least 50 in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Dallas -3 over SAN FRANCISCO: The Niners are 0-13-1 since 2002 after a win in which they grabbed 4 or more sacks. Plus we note that home teams off a win of 10 or more that scored 24+ points vs a team off road game that also scored 24+ points are 5-24 ATS. Dallas had a tough game vs NY last week, but they still were able to put up 390 yards, including 326 through the air. San Fran's 33-17 win last week was a bit misleading as they only racked up 209 yards and were actually outgaind by 10 yards in the game, but some late Seattle miscues allowed the final score to look worse than it was. Dallas is better on both sides of the ball than both Seattle or San Fran and they will walk away with at least a TD win in this one.
San Diego/ New England Over 53.5: The two offenses will be ranked #1 and #2 at the end of the year and thay both should flex their muscles vs each other today. The Chargers offense is back to full strength now that Vincent Jackson is here from the get go and the Rivers to Jackson combo should have a big game vs the smallish DB's for the Patriots. Last week Philip threw for over 300 yards vs a a decent Minnesota defense and this week he will ba facing a defense that allowed Miami to throw for 390 yards last week. Rivers might get the 500 yards this week. LOL The Charger defense is tough, but they won't hold down the Pats passing game like they did vs Minnesota last week, so look for plenty of offense from them as well. The over is 9-2 after the pats score 31+, while the Over is 10-3-1 when SD is getting 6 points or more, plus look up to my top play for another angle involving west coast teams traveling east. I see this game hitting the 60's at least.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Green bay -10.5 over CAROLINA: The Pack is off a solid win on last Thursday over the Saints and they have had a couple extra days to get ready for this one. Cam Newton had a great first game vs the Cardinals, but they do not have put the kind of pressure on a QB that he will see today vs Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers will have another great game and GB wins by 14+. KEY TREND: Carolina is 0-7 ATS off a SU road loss.
PITTSBURGH -14 over Seattle: The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS their last 5 as a DD dog and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 away vs non-division, while Pitt is 9-1 ATS off a loss of 10 or more. Pitt was humiliated last week and I really look for them to play well for the home crowd as this is their only home game in the 1st 4 weeks of the year, while Seattle is off a home game and has to travel cross-country with another home game on deck. Pitt bounces back big here.
SPORTS WAGERS
KANSAS CITY –104 over Chicago
The White Sox packed it in early last week when they were swept by the Tigers and outscored 26-7. Chicago has lost the first three of this series and they’ve been outscored 24-11. This is a mentally drained intruder that has no interest in anything other than getting this season over with already. The last thing this group wants to do is wake up and go to the ballpark to play some baseball. The pen is completely gassed, the batters are seeing BB’s and nobody really cares anyway. Chicago has lost six in a row and nine of its past 11 games. Meanwhile, the Royals are playing hard and they’re playing to win. They’re in the midst of its longest winning streak of the season, which now stands at seven. K.C. has scored seven runs or more in four straight games and although they don’t have an edge on the hill today, does it really matter? They want to win while the South Side is just going through the motions and thus, it’s a very cheap price on the host. Play: Kansas City –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
MONTREAL –7 over Winnipeg
Buck Pierce is definitely a go. Pierce will be nursing sore ribs and he’s a hit away from watching from the rail. For the first time in a long time, 10 games into the season the Als aren’t in first place. Montreal is just a game behind Winnipeg for first in the East and a win here pulls them into a tie. The interesting thing is that this is the first meeting between the two this season. The Bombers haven’t beaten the Alouettes in Montreal since 2008. Anthony Calvillo has won six straight starts against the Bombers and is 8-1 since 2007, throwing 22 touchdowns and only five interceptions during that span. They own Winnipeg and the Bombers picked the worst time of the season to suddenly get cold. They’ve lost two in a row, both by more than 20 points and both to the Riders. The Als had dropped two in a row before taking their frustrations out on the Tigercats last week by 30 points. A similar result here would not surprise, as the Alouettes are in much better form while the Bombers are suddenly a little fragile. The Bombers offense can’t keep pace with Montreal’s and while Winnipeg has a big statistical edge over the Als on defense, Winnipeg allowed 72 points against in the past two games. What we really have here is a Winnipeg team that is fragile at QB, fragile on offense, fragile on defense and psychologically they’re in trouble too, having made losing here pretty much routine. Play: Montreal –7 (No bets).
OC DOOLEY
Dolphins +3
Something has to give late this afternoon as Houston has lost six consecutive games on the road while Miami is on a disastrous 1-10 slide in front of their home fans, so TAKING the generous points is a high percentage wager. It is easy to see why the Texans despite their road woes have been cast as a favorite as they let out years of frustration against a bitter divisional rival by destroying Indianapolis last week by a whopping 34-7 count. Meanwhile the entire country got to see Miami’s defense get shredded for a franchise-high 622 yards in a Monday Night loss to Tom Brady and New England. But despite the loss Miami’s reconfigured offense managed to gain a healthy 488 yards while new running back acquisition Reggie Bush caught 9 passes out of the backfield. What is strange about the Monday result is that the Dolphins strength coming into this campaign was supposed to be a defense led by linebacker Cameron Wake who is fast emerging as a pass-rushing superstar. The Miami cornerback tandem of Vontae Davis and Sean Smith are entering their 3rd professional season as the experience factor is increasing. One would think that the entire Dolphins roster will be interested in this laste afternoon REVENGE affair as they have now lost 5 consecutive battles to a Texans star-studded roster that is slowly starting to get national attention. Houston is in a classic “look ahead” spot as they will tackle a pair of quality opponents (Saints, Steelers) in the next two weeks. Here is an approaching 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (60-28 past five years) which plays AGAINST road teams like Houston after a double-digit margin of victory, against an opponent just involved in an extremely high scoring affair where at least 50 points were put on the scoreboard. That system favors Miami who has the advantage of staying at home base even though on a short preparation week following that Monday Night appearance
Steve Merril
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
Cincinnati should have a simple game plan against Denver. Run the ball, and run it some more. Denver’s defense could not stop Darren McFadden and Oakland’s running game on Monday night as they gouged the Broncos for 190 yards on the ground. The Bengals ran the ball for 139 yards this past week against Cleveland and they should have similar success in Week 2. This will make life easier for whoever is taking the snaps for the Bengals. Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton hurt his throwing wrist late in the game last week, but he should be okay to play in Denver. If he can’t go, veteran QB Bruce Gradkowski, who led the Bengals on their game-winning drive in Cleveland, will get the start. Gradkowski is a serviceable quarterback, and since we expect the Bengals to pound the ball on the ground, the QB factor isn’t much of an issue. After winning 11 consecutive home openers, Denver put on an abysmal performance that was even worse than what the final score (23-20) indicated. The Broncos only managed a meager 38 yards rushing; their two touchdowns came on a 90-yard punt return and late in the fourth quarter when the game was all but over. Cincinnati’s defense was good against the Browns as they held them to just 17 points on 285 yards of total offense. Denver’s offense will need to be much improved if they expect to do much in the way of moving the ball consistently in this game. The Broncos’ defense was dead last in the league last year in points allowed per game (29) and yards allowed per game (391) and next to last in rushing yards allowed (155). And they didn’t look any better in their season opener against the Raiders. Since 2005, the Broncos are 19-34 ATS as a favorite. New head coach John Fox should eventually get them to a better place defensively, but it will not be this week. After picking up their first opening game win in three years, the Bengals have plenty of confidence and they are in a prime spot to start the 2011 season off with a 2-0 record.