Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, September 19,2010

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Kansas City vs Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -1
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This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Chiefs despite pulling out a big win on Monday Night have a lot of work to do on both sides of the ball. Even though I had Kansas City winning outright Monday if the weather was perfect San Diego would have won fairly easily. Kansas City only put up 197 total yards including just 62 yards through the air. The Chargers put up 389 total yards against this Chiefs defense and that included passing for 280 yards in terrible weather. The Browns looked good in their season opener putting up 340 total yards with 236 yards through the air and those numbers will only get better against this Chiefs defense Sunday afternoon. The Browns come into this game a perfect 4-0 ATS after a loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against an AFC opponent. The Chiefs are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games when playing on Sunday after playing on Monday Night.

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3* on Seattle Seahawks +3.5
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Reasons the Seahawks cover:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. This is a 41-10 ATS System hitting 80.4% since 1983. Bet Seattle on the road.

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Bills vs. Packers
Play: Over 43FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The loss of Ryan Grant may make some people think the under is the smart play, but the more we break it down we have came to the conclusion that the over is the smart play here. With out Ryan Grant in the game the Packers who already throw the ball as much or more than any other team will be forced to throw the ball even more. With out much of a run game, the clock will be stopped a lot in this game, which will ultimately give both teams more plays in the game than normal. Also, When the Packers throw the ball all over the field it usually ends in quick touchdowns, which will force Buffalo to also throw the ball more because they will be behind playing catch-up.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
PICK: Tennessee Titans -5
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What an awesome start in Week 1 where I went 6-2 (75%) and hit all four of of my *10* selections; in fact, dating back to the pre-season, I'm on an absolutely incredible 8-1 (89%) *10* NFL TOP PLAY run!
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And this of course comes after the fact that I finished as the #4 NFL Capper in the Nation last year, as independently documented by the Sports Watch of Las Vegas.
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It's now time to focus on Week 2; so let's take a closer look at the Pittsburgh Steelers who travel to Tennessee to take on the Titans.
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For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
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Pittsburgh looked sharp on the defensive side of the ball in its 15-9 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons last week, and it's going to have to once again step it up on defense if it has any shot whatsoever at competing against the Titans.
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Tennessee annihilated Oakland 38-13, and I firmly believe we're going to see a similar outcome in this one.
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Dating back to last season, the Steelers are in fact just 3-7 ATS their last ten on the road. Not only that, but over the last two years Pittsburgh is only 2-3 ATS vs. AFC South division opponents.
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It's also notorious to getting out to slow starts; just 2-6 ATS over the last two seasons in the month of September.
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Tennessee on the other hand is a stellar 5-1 ATS over the last two years vs. AFC North division opponents; also 6-2 ATS during the month of September; 10-6 ATS in front of the home town crowd and 14-9 ATS when playing the roll of favorite.
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There is no question in my mind that this line should be higher. Vince Young had one of his best days ever last week, completing 13 of 17 for 154 yards and two touchdowns; his 142.8 passer rating was the highest of his entire career.
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Chris Johnson was a beast and ran for 142 yards and two TD's, despite the Raiders focusing on him in a vain attempt to slow him down.
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Dennis Dixon on the other hand was 18 of 26 for 236 yards; he gave up an INT, but at least two other passes of his could have easily been intercepted if not dropped by the Falcons.
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So the bottom line is this: if the Steelers focus on the run, they are going to get burned by Young; if they look to stop the pass, well…obviously Johnson is going to torch them.
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I expect another monster blowout here…consider a second look at the TENNESSEE TITANS in this situation.

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NEP -2 vs NYJFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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When HBO approached the Green Bay Packers about appearing as the featured team on it's popular Hard Knocks series Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson got together and decided to offer up a reply of thanks but no thanks. Good PR for the organization but there can be little real debate as to whether or not it is a distraction. Teams in the spotlight for this series have simply not fared well. Anyway, the Jets kept up that tradition in week one at least on the offensive side of the ball as they were basically inept against Baltimore monday night in the opener. Granted they were facing one of the leagues best units in the Ravens however that offense has issues and I cannot see one short week of practice to be enough to cure it's ills. These two organizations loathe one another and it should be fun to watch. Trust me, I realize the slippery slope that goes with over reacting to week one performances but the Patriots manhandled the highly touted Bengals and just plain hate the Jets. Patriots coaching staff will have their team prepared for battle and the Jets will be still looking for that first win and maybe having second thoughts about their TV career when this one concludes. Take Tom Brady and his Patriots laying the two points over Mark Sanchez and his Jets guys.

Randall the HandleFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Chiefs @ Browns
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The Browns arrive home after an ugly loss to the lowly Buccaneers while the Chiefs could practically fly here without a vessel after their exhilarating victory over the highly-ranked Chargers. However, things are not always as they appear. Kansas City benefitted from a frenzied crowd, a near monsoon and most notably, some costly turnovers and sloppy special teams play. The Chiefs managed a mere 197 yards of total offence, including a puny 62 yards through the air. The Brownies were once again their own worst enemy as they were superior everywhere but the scoreboard in loss to Bucs. Things get righted here. TAKING: Cleveland –1½
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Giants @ Colts
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No one likes to face an older brother when the senior sibling might be in a rotten mood. Such will be the case when Eli Manning and the Giants visit brother Peyton in this Sunday night affair. The Colts will be cranky after suffering a season opening loss to rival Texans. That can’t be a good thing for a Giants team that is susceptible to the pass, has lost some key offensive line people and has covered just three of their past 12 games. All Indianapolis has done is win 23 of its past 25 regular season games on route to last year’s Super Bowl appearance. Off opening week results, we get to spot a discounted price. TAKING: Indianapolis –5 ½
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Patriots @ Jets
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While it is only second week of a long season, this one suddenly becomes critical to the host Jets. This New York bunch can ill-afford to drop consecutive home games after last week’s humbling loss to the Ravens as it heads out to play three of next four away from here, including a trip to divisional foe Dolphins. New England silenced its detractors with a convincing win over the Bengals but this will be a stauncher test as Jets stifling defence is not intimidated by the Patriots scoring weapons. A week ago, the Jets would have been favoured. The knee-jerk reaction is one we’ll take advantage of. TAKING: NY Jets +2½
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THE REST:
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Steelers @ Titans
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Last year, the Steelers hosted these Titans in opening week with Pittsburgh listed as 6 ½ point faves, en route to a 3-point win. Have things changed that drastically to warrant a 12-point swing? And how can Tennessee be favoured by basically same price to Raiders last week? TAKING: Pittsburgh +5 ½
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Bills @ Packers
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Packers clearly the better squad but after season-ending injury to RB Ryan Grant and with a Monday night date in Chicago on deck, we could catch Green Bay taking early season nap here. Bills might be limited but two TD’s too juicy to pass on. TAKING: Buffalo +13
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Ravens @ Bengals
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Even though this is a key divisional matchup, Baltimore may be spent after both physical and mental combat in win over Jets last week. The Bengals swept the AFC North last year and after last week’s debacle with New England, a strong performance is essential in this one. TAKING: Cincinnati +2
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Eagles @ Lions
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Week Two and already both squads are without their starting quarterback. Michael Vick will be under center for first time since his infamous ordeal. Vick looked spry last week but coming off the bench and starting, along with some battered bodies, poses some blatant risks. TAKING: Detroit +6
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Bears at Cowboys
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Bears continue to be reckless after turning the ball over four times and incurring too many penalties in controversial win over the Lions. Dallas will exploit such behavior in this building, where the ‘Boys have covered 10 of past 14 as chalk. Conversely, Chicago has failed to cover in 10 of past 13 away. TAKING: Dallas –7 ½
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Bucs @ Panthers
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The Panthers devour the Bucs as a rule and this day should be no different. Tampa’s porous run defence unlikely to have answer for Carolina’s strong running back tandem of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. This is another case where opening week winner facing opening loser provides value. TAKING: Carolina –3 ½
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Cardinals @ Falcons
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Cardinals were a surprising 6-2 on the road last year but that was with Kurt Warner throwing to his arsenal. Derek Anderson is a canyon-like step down. Cards traveling in consecutive weeks, including this one to the Eastern time zone, offers too great a challenge against solid opponent.. TAKING: Atlanta –6 ½
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Dolphins @ Vikings
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‘Grandparve’ returns home after less than stellar performance in New Orleans. Minnesota’s defence is its current strength while Dolphins methodical style doesn’t allow many to distance themselves. Miami quite lucrative outside of Sun Life Stadium, having covered 12 of past 16 away. TAKING: Miami +5 ½
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Rams @ Raiders
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We wouldn’t spot points with these Raiders if they were facing the crew from Cake Boss. Oakland was expected to be vastly improved this season but after last week’s horrendous showing, we’ll have to see some evidence before believing. Raiders on current 0-11 run as favorites. TAKING: St. Louis +3 ½
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Seahawks @ Broncos
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Seattle’s running game remains a deficiency and that poses a problem when it will be forced to pass against Denver’s top-ranked secondary. Seahawks were amped up for opener at Qwest but have performed miserably away from home, covering just once in past 9 trips. TAKING: Denver -3 ½
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Texans @ Redskins
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Calm down there, Buckaroos. Yes, that was a gargantuan win over nemesis Colts last week but now the Texans must show some consistency. Spotting road points after huge emotional win will be a tall order against this stellar Redskins defence. A field goal decides this one. TAKING: Washington +3 ½
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Jaguars @ Chargers
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In two trips to west coast last year, the Jaguars were outscored by a combined 61-3. That came at the hands of the Seahawks and Niners. A dangerous Chargers squad capable of inflicting carnage, especially off frustrating Monday night loss in Kansas City. TAKING: San Diego –7
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Saints @ 49ers
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Hard to invest money on the 49ers off that dismal performance last week, especially when facing the champs. However, San Fran’s pass rush capable of disrupting Saints passing game. National stage should have host at its best. TAKING: San Francisco +5 ½

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NY JETS +1.31 over New England
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What we have here is a week one complete overreaction to both the Patriots and the Jets and the result is an overlay. In fact, the negative overreaction to the Jets is magnified since they played on Monday night and the whole country witnessed they couldn’t move five yards. However, that was the first game of the year and it came against the stifling defense of the Ravens. The Pats defense is nowhere near in the same class as Baltimore’s “D”. Mark Sanchez has ice in his veins and won’t be shook up one bit after a lousy performance. In fact, this guy has always responded with a good game after a bad one and takes a huge step down in class against this very average defense. The Patriots blew out the Bengals 38-24 and way too much credit was given to them. The Bengals failed to show up in the first half (they were down 24-0) but let’s not ignore the fact that Cinci outscored them 24-14 after that and that Carson Palmer shredded the defense for 345 yards through the air. The Jets defense is in the top three in the league and Tom Brady and company are going to meet a ton more resistance in this one. In fact, if this were a week one matchup, the Jets and not the Patriots would be favored by three and there is just no way one week warrants a six-point difference in the line. Wrong side favored and you can keep the points. Jets outright. Play: N.Y. Jets +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
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CLEVELAND –2 over Kansas City
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Arrowhead Stadium was electric last Monday Night and the atmosphere was as intense as any playoff game, Super Bowl, or prizefight in the last decade. The Chiefs pulled off the upset over the Chargers in what had to be considered the franchises biggest win in five years. Make no mistake, the Chiefs were lucky beyond lucky. The failed to score in the second half and its three scores came on a 56-yard run, a punt return for a TD and an interception that set the offense up with first and goal. Absolutely everything went right for the Chiefs including a defensive stance at the end of the game when Bolts were at the Chiefs five-yard line with a minute to go in regulation. Fact is, the offense was brutal and so was the play calling. It was run-run-pass-punt for the Chiefs all game long. Matt Cassel had 68 total yards through the air and if you take away Jamal Charles 56-yard run, he and Thomas Jones ran for 76 yards. Now, after a hugely emotional win on a Monday night, the Chiefs will travel to play a Browns team that lost in Tampa but were by far the better squad. The Brownies didn’t lose to TB, they beat themselves. The Browns are so much better than they’re getting credit for. They started to come alive in the final month of last season and they actually looked good last Sunday but the score is not reflective of that. They outgained the Bucs 340-288 and that’s after turning the ball over five times. The Brownies defense was rock solid after being put in tough situations time and time again. Whether it’s Jake Delhomme or Seneca Wallace behind center this week, it’s not going to matter. The Chiefs are extremely ripe to get beat and perhaps more than any team in the business, K.C. needs major improvements on both sides of the ball. A Brownies squad that knows they let one slip away exposes those serious Kansas City flaws here. Play: Cleveland -1½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
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DENVER –3½ +1.02 over Seattle
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We’ll stick to our overreaction theory here after the Seahawks punished the 49ers last weekend. It was a nice win but it was a win based more on San Francisco’s inefficiency as oppose to Seattle’s strong play. The 49ers should’ve been up by 17 points 20 minutes into the game and when they failed to capitalize, the Seahawks pounced. Big deal. This visitor has no running game. They have more new and unproven players than any team in the business and they’re not good. The Seahawks may not win a road game all year. This is bad club that ran into an extremely flat 49ers team in week one and the same fate does not await them in Denver. The Broncos came up just short in its opening loss to the Jags. They went nose-to-nose with Jacksonville and were very close to forcing OT. The Broncos outgained the Jags, 363-299, but had trouble finishing off drives and lost the turnover battle by a 2-0 margin. That was on the road and now the Broncos will play in front of a boisterous Invesco Field home crowd to an attempt to snap a five-game losing streak that dates back to last year. Frankly, the Broncos couldn’t have handpicked a better opponent to open the year at home against and should have little trouble winning this game by two TD’s or more. Play: Denver –3½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
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INDIANAPOLIS –5 over NY Giants
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The Indianapolis Colts are the best regular season team in the league and it’s not even close. They’ve won 25 of its last 27 regular season games and they’re coming off a loss. Peyton Manning only threw for 433 yards. The Colts really need no introduction, they’re as solid as ever and there’s very little chance of them opening the year 0-2 and you can triple that with them being at home on a Sunday night. The Giants won ugly in its deceiving win over the Panthers. As a 6½-point favorite, the Giants needed everything to go its way to pull off the win. In fact, the Giants picked off three Matt Moore passes in the end zone and that was the difference. Carolina led 16-14 at the half and had they finished those drives with either a TD or FG, the Panthers could have been up for 14 or more. Peyton Manning won’t throw picks in the end zone and if Matt Moore moved the Panthers down field at will one can only imagine what Peyton will do. Yeah, the Colts defense got eaten alive by the Texans ground game. However, that game was in Houston and no team makes better adjustments than the Colts and it’s also worth noting that the Texans offense is as potent as they come. The Colts are an elite team while the Giants are a .500 team at best and play in the weaker NFC. Play: Indianapolis –5 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
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WASHINGTON +1.25 over Houston
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The whole football world is in love with the Texans after the biggest win in its history last week over the Colts. Let’s not forget that the Texans have always matched up well with Indy and had them on the ropes plenty of times before. This time they were able to finish them off and now they’ll travel to Washington in love with themselves. Yeah, they’re a good team but they’re in a bad spot. Houston has in-state rival Dallas up next week and this is about as big a “sandwich” game as any you’ll see all year. The Skins were wickedly good on defense last week, bringing the heat on Tony Romo all game. Washington’s offense is still a work in progress but the innovative play calling of Mike Shanahan is a huge step up in class from Jim Zorn’s conservative and predictable play calling. Furthermore, the Texans corners are all first or second year players and you can expect an experienced and now more comfortable Donovan McNab to exploit that. The Texans are a good offensive team for sure but its defense leaves plenty to be desired and this is a strong situational play in the Redskins favor. Play: Washington +1.25 (Risking 2 units).

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Chiefs vs. Browns
Play: Under 38.5
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The Browns’ offense may have looked better vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, but the scoreboard looked pretty similar to what we have come to expect - 14 points scored by the Browns. That makes 16 of the last 23 games played by the Browns show 14 points or less scored by the offense. It also showed the fourth game in the last five that the "improving" Browns’ defense allowed 17 or less. The Chiefs held a very potent offense in San Diego to 14 points. Despite scoring 21 themselves they netted just nine first downs for the entire game. Take their 94 yard punt return away and they scored just 14 on offense. If that kind of special teams play (as well as a 56-yard TD run) is what it takes for them to get to 21, then they are going to fall short more often than not. The Chiefs play UNDER early very often, and their last 19 September games have gone 14-5 to the UNDER. They are also on a 26-9 UNDER run during the first two weeks of the year. The Browns have followed a loss by going 35-17-3 to the UNDER in their last 55. I like this one to stay UNDER the total.

Sean HiggsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Texans vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins +3
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Yea, the Texans finally beat the Colts. They can be in for a bit of let down here. Skins of a defensive battle vs Dallas. Not much happening on offense for Washington. But this team brings the D every play. Texans not going to like what the Redskins bring to the line with every play. Take the small home pup here and watch McNabb toss 2 tds.

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1* on Cincinnati Bengals +3
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The Ravens won't be able to match the intensity they showed against the New York Jets last week. That was considered a "man's game", and the Ravens put their best foot forward. But we can see them falling flat on their faces this week as they travel to face the hungry Cincinnati Bengals Sunday. Cincy opened the season ugly, falling behind 31-3 at New England last week before making it respectable in a 24-38 defeat. This is basically the same Bengals team that swept the Ravens last year, except now they've added a couple key pieces on offense to make their passing game more explosive. Because Cincinnati lost last week and Baltimore won, the Ravens are the favorite. Had it been the other way around, the Bengals would be favored. That means we are getting great line value on the Bengals this week because of how things went last weekend. The Bengals won 17-14 at Baltimore last year before capping off the sweep with a 17-7 home win. In that home victory, Cincinnati controlled the ball 40 minutes to Baltimores 20 minutes and held the Ravens to just 55 yards rushing on 17 carries. So the Bengals held the Ravens to a mere 10.5 points/game in two meetings last year. Cincinnati knows how to beat Baltimore, and this becomes virtually a must-win game because nine teams that started 0-2 last year all failed to make the playoffs. Plus, the Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Take Cincinnati and the points.

James Patrick SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bills vs. PackersFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The primary focus for Buffalo HC Chan Gailey is an offense that finished 28th in the NFL in scoring (16.1 PPG), and 30th in passing (157.2 YPG). Coach Gailey has been brought in to rebuild one of the league's worst offenses and it could be long season. Packers Head coach Mike McCarthy on the other hand would love to pick up where they left off last season when they steamrolled to a 7-1 record over the second half and came within a turnover of a road playoff win. Green Bay held six of its last eight regular-season opponents to 14 points or fewer while scoring at least 27 in six second-half games. With starpower on each side of the ball in QB Aaron Rodgers and NFL Defensive POY Charles Woodson, how far the Packers go may ultimately depend on their offensive line. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NFL complimentary selection is Green Bay Packers.

DAVID CHANFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncos
PICK: Denver Broncos -3
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No Pete Carroll probably didn't take a pay cut to go from USC to Seattle. But he took a talent cut.
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I wrote earlier this week about not getting fooled, or reading too much into, the Week 1 results. The Seahawks are a perfect example of this.
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The Seahawks ambushed the 49ers at home last Sunday. That doesn't change the fact that the Seahawks are deficient in talent, have a terrible offensive line, a punchless ground attack and a defense full of holes. These problems will come to the surface during their road games. This is Seattle's first road matchup.
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Yes, this is a bad-on-bad matchup. I tend to avoid bad versus bad, but Seattle is much worse than Denver. The spread, though, only really accounts for Denver's home-field advantage. So there is value backing the Broncos.
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The Broncos won't need injured Elvis Dumervil to pile up sacks in this matchup. The Seahawks have yet to replace the retired Walter Jones. Their quarterback, Matt Hasselbeck, is aging and immobile. He's getting worse with time not better, although he did have a surprising good opener. Again, though, the Seahawks' win was at noisy Qwest Field against a San Francisco squad starting two rookie offensive linemen.
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Hasselbeck won't come close to duplicating his Week 1 effort on the road facing a veteran Denver secondary that finished third in pass defense last year and has all four starters back. The Seahawks lack playmakers.
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Long-time Denver offensive line guru Alex Gibbs came out of retirement to coach for Carroll in Seattle. But he couldn't even make it to the season-opener before quitting. Carroll always has been in over his head in the pros. Things haven't changed. This is the worst situation Carroll finds himself in.
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Kyle Orton is comfortable and effective in Josh McDaniels' passing system. The Broncos lack marquee wideouts, but have players who fit their system in Jabar Gaffney, Eddie Royal and Brandon Lloyd, a talented player who has seemed to find new life in Denver. These guys are effective in this system.
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Running back Knowshon Moreno has recovered from a hamstring strain and is poised for a big year. He's under the radar right now.

CKO

10* TENNESSEE
LT Max Starks and NT Casey Hampton are the latest Steelers to be sidelined, joining RT Willie Colon and QBs Ben Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich. Veteran center Justin Hartwig was beaten out by promising No. 1 pick Maurkice Pouncey. That means there will be three backups/rookies starting in the Pittsburgh OL this Sunday at raucous LP Field, where opposing linemen had more false starts than any other stadium LY! And this doesn’t even consider the Tennessee offense, which has been rejuvenated since the return to the lineup LY of the more-mature Vince Young, who is now more careful with the ball and able to spot secondary receivers. The Titan defense is one of the more aggressive in the league, so inexperienced QB Dennis Dixon (only his third start) will have his hands full, especially if the runs of the marvelous Chris Johnson put Pittsburgh in an early hole.

TOTALS: UNDER (36) in the Tampa Bay-Carolina Game—Both teams good on defense; shaky at QB...UNDER (44) in the Houston-Washington Game— Houston loves its new clock-eating ground game; Washington offense still developing; good-friend coaches Shanahan & Kubiak know each other’s favorite plays!

NELLY

RATING 5 MINNESOTA (-51⁄2) over Miami
RATING 4 PITTSBURGH (+6) over Tennessee
RATING 3 SEATTLE (+3) over Denver
RATING 2 GREEN BAY (-131⁄2) over Buffalo
RATING 1 ARIZONA (+7) over Atlanta

GoldSheet

DALLAS by 21 over Chicago
DENVER by 14 over Seattle
Miami-Minnesota UNDER

North Coast Power Plays

4* Raiders, Falcons
3* Redskins, Vikings Over
2* Cowboys

PlayBook

5* Arizona,
5* Bears/Dal Under
4* Philadelphia
4* Sea/Den Over
3* Ravens
3* Buff/GBP Under

PointWise

5* Denver, Philly
4* Tennessee
3* GBP
2* Minnesota

Winning Points

Best Bet Tennessee, Indy
Preferred Bet Washington, Denver

Vikes Under, Bucs Under, Raiders Under

The Edge

5* Baltimore
3* Atlanta
3* Indy

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
Prediction: Cleveland Browns
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The new-look Browns appeared en route to a season-opening win at Tampa, cruising with a comfortable 14-3 lead. That was until a 4th quarter Jake Delhomme interception (surprise) turned into a go-ahead touchdown by the Bucs and, just like that, Cleveland dipped to 1-11 in season openers. The good news is they are 4-0 ATS at home in Game Two of the campaign. And fortunately they catch the Chiefs off a huge Monday night surprise over the Chargers, their first Monday night victory in five years. Not only is an emotional letdown in order, so too is a physical one as the Chiefs are just 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS away in non-division games off a straight-up home underdog win. No giveaways in the Dawg Pound today. Stay at home with the Browns. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.