Michael AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons
Play: Arizona Cardinals +6.5
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The Atlanta Falcons hope to turn things around after their opening season loss as they play host to the Arizona Cardinals. The problem here though is that home teams after an opening week loss are only 95-130-5 ATS since 1980. In addition, teams coming off games versus the Steelers are 18-28 SU and 12-34 ATS.
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There was some suprise when Whisehunt made the decision to jetison Matt Leinart but he must have known that starting QB Derek Anderson is a sparkling 24-10-1 ATS. In addition, Game Two non-division home favorites of four or more points (ATLANTA) off a SU and ATS loss where they failed to the spread by seven or more points are 4-21 ATS since 1980.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Don't be fooled by the early start for the West Coast time Cardinals. The Falcons might win but it won't be by much. Take Arizona Plus the Points
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns -1SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns Sunday, September 19, 2010 1:00 PM EDT Pick: Take Cleveland ATS This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the Chiefs despite pulling out a big win on Monday Night have a lot of work to do on both sides of the ball. Even though I had Kansas City winning outright Monday if the weather was perfect San Diego would have won fairly easily. Kansas City only put up 197 total yards including just 62 yards through the air. The Chargers put up 389 total yards against this Chiefs defense and that included passing for 280 yards in terrible weather. The Browns looked good in their season opener putting up 340 total yards with 236 yards through the air and those numbers will only get better against this Chiefs defense Sunday afternoon. The Browns come into this game a perfect 4-0 ATS after a loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against an AFC opponent. The Chiefs are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games when playing on Sunday after playing on Monday Night. The Browns get the win at home Sunday afternoon against the Chiefs so take them as my Week 2 NFL Free Pick.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
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The Eagles CLEARLY the better team. Both teams starting QBs are out but Mike Vick for the Eagles is the wild card here in this one. He provided some fireworks last week for Philly ibn a loss tot eh Pack, and Philly also lost an OL to season ending injury last week. STILL the Eagles are the better team as I may stand alone, but Vick at QB is the DIFFERENCE in this game. he will have a huge day running it, hell Jay Cutler was averaging 5 yards per carry last week against ther Lions.
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The Lions defense for such a low scoring last week gave up over 460 yards of offense and Culter from the Bears threw at will against them. QB play is crucial in the NFL and Shawn Hill has never hit the mark in the NFL and managed 88 yards on 19 attempts last week and only completed 9 of them, and of course 1 to the other team. This line opened at -3.5 for Philly and has jumped 3 points for a reason. Philly far better and Andy Reid is awesome coming off a loss, I like Philly here by 10.
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TWO TEAM 6 Point Teaser
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Two Underdogs with Added Points make you a tidy profit
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Chicago Bears Teased up to +15
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NY Giants Teased up to +11
Sean HiggsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Texans vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins +2.5
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Backing the Redskins as the Free Play for Sunday. Yea, the Texans finally beat the Colts. They can be in for a bit of let down here. Skins of a defensive battle vs Dallas. Not much happening on offense for Washington. But this team brings the D every play. Texans not going to like what the Redskins bring to the line with every play. Take the small home pup here and watch McNabb toss 2 tds.
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St Louis Rams vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Oakland Raiders -3.5
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The Oakland Raiders return home after getting blown-out on the road in week one. The Titans figure to be a winning team but the Rams figure to win no more than five games. Just like in horse racing teams face different class teams. The Raiders take a major step down in "Class" and should blowout the Rams. Fading a rookie quarterback, making his first NFL road start is always a good idea. Take the Raiders in their home opener!
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Bills vs. PackersFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The loss of Ryan Grant may make some people think the under is the smart play, but the more we break it down we have came to the conclusion that the over is the smart play here. With out Ryan Grant in the game the Packers who already throw the ball as much or more than any other team will be forced to throw the ball even more. With out much of a run game, the clock will be stopped a lot in this game, which will ultimately give both teams more plays in the game than normal. Also, When the Packers throw the ball all over the field it usually ends in quick touchdowns, which will force Buffalo to also throw the ball more because they will be behind playing catch-up.
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Houston Texans @ Washington Redskins
PICK: Houston Texans -3
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The Redskins won a national TV game last week against Dallas despite producing a grand total of two field goals on offense for the entire game. This is nothing new if you’ve watched Mike Shanahan’s squad throughout the preseason. Their offensive line has been banged up since August; shuffling players in and out of the lineup. Donovan McNabb spent most of the month on the bench, nursing his hamstring, and he’s been limited in practice this week with a sore ankle. That’s not a recipe for success as he learns a new offense and tries to develop some chemistry with his limited receiving corps.
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While the Redskins offense is likely to sputter once again this week, Houston’s offense is primed to score points in bunches once again. The Texans attack is truly balanced, capable of grinding out yards on the ground like they did last week against Indy. Or, if Arian Foster doesn’t find room to run, Matt Schaub is quite capable of creating points in a hurry by firing downfield. Gary Kubiak’s squad won five times in eight tries on the road last year, including wins against solid squads like the Titans, Bengals and Dolphins. Expect another comfortable road victory against an inferior foe on Sunday. 2* Take Houston.
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New England Patriots @ New York Jets
PICK: New England Patriots -3
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This is a statement game for the Patriots. And it has nothing to do with last week or even last year for that matter. New England feels it is still the class of the AFC East yet all it heard throughout the offseason was how the Jets are now the team to beat following their improbable run to the AFC Championship. That is a huge motivator for teams that get dissed like that and the Patriots are one of the best at coming through in these situations. They will be hungry even after last week’s blowout win.
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The Jets put up a pretty poor effort on Monday night against Baltimore and now much try to regroup on a short week. Their run through the playoffs last season was very impressive but look at it this way. Had the Colts and Bengals not rested their starters in the final two games of the regular season, New York may have never even made the playoffs and it would not be the big sleeper pick in the AFC. The defense is one of the best but the offense is horrid and I am far from sold on this team.
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The Jets defense bottled up quarterback Tom Brady and the Patriots offense in the first meeting a season ago. You have to give them credit for that but at the same time, it was only the second game back for Brady who missed the entire 2008 season with a knee injury. He got a mulligan for that performance. Good quarterbacks bounce back and Brady did just that. In the second meeting he went 28-41 for 310 yards and a touchdown as the Patriots got their payback and rolled.
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On the other side, Mark Sanchez was very efficient in the first meeting. In the second meeting, he imploded by going 8-21 for 136 yards with a touchdown and four interceptions. A lot of that was Sanchez but more so it was the Patriots coaching staff that adjusted and came up with a great gameplan. You can count on Bill Belichick doing the same this week. He will load the box to stop the run, which the Jets will try to establish, and make Sanchez beat them. I don’t think Sanchez can accomplish that.
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The running games of both sides will be very important here and I consider it a draw. The Jets bottled up the Ravens while their own running game was solid. The problem this week as mentioned before is that New England will be all over the run and they will utilize different looks to confuse Sanchez even more. The Patriots ran well last week against a very solid Bengals defense as they rushing for 118 yards on only 23 carries (5.1 ypc) while the defense shut down Cincinnati’s ground game by allowing 87 yards on 25 carries (3.5 ypc).
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The Patriots are 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game while going 32-13-1 ATS in its last 36 games against teams coming off a loss as a chalk. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive losses in the first month of the season. This situation is 83-45 ATS (64.8 percent) since 1983. 3* New England Patriots
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Buffalo Bills vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -13
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The Green Bay Packers are a Super Bowl contender in 2010, and whatever the opposite of that is, that's what the Bills are. Not to pick on Buffalo, which is going to get better at some point under Gailey, but is simply not ready to win a road game of this difficulty level at this stage in their formative process. The Packers felt they left some plays on the field last week in Philadelphia, and will look much sharper in what should be a jubilant home opener.
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PIT +6 vs TENFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Let's lower the boom on the Steelers +6 as they just missed out on a J BOMB "Paid Play" We have exclusive power ratings on the NFL and the Steel curtain is @ + 2 on our ratings. The Titans blow out win last week as the game got away from the Raiders has inflated this line. The D. Dixon era for a few games will have a Steeler "D" step it up for a few games. The Steelers held Atlanta's M Turner to under 50 yards last week on the ground. The public will love the Steelers 1-6 ats record vs the Titans , but not us boys! We are not biting.
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Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons
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As our readers know, we study the "market action" within the sports marketplace to give us a clue about what specific bettors (such as square bettors and sharps) are doing in the betting markets. In particular, we use SportsInsights' proprietary "betting percentages" as well as point spread line movement. We typically like to "bet against the public" and "follow the smart money." The Arizona-Atlanta match-up has several indicators that point to Arizona as a contrarian value play.
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First, the public is overwhelmingly on Atlanta, with about three out of every four bets coming in on the favored Falcons, when you include teasers and parlays. Even though most bets are coming in on Atlanta, the point spread has actually moved in the opposite direction. The line opened at Atlanta -7, but has ticked down to Atlanta -6.5 at most sportsbooks. This "reverse line movement" is an excellent indication that "big, smart money" has come in on Arizona, overwhelming the smaller, public bets.
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SportsInsights' Smart Money analytical tools also flagged smart money plays coming in on Arizona, based on its analysis of indicators at individual sportsbooks. In particular, the Phoenix (7-1) and Olympic (7-4) sportsbooks flashed smart money plays for Arizona.
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You can still get +7 at several sportsbooks, so grab the key number while you can.
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Arizona Cardinals +7 -120
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans
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The public is overwhelmingly on Tennessee after their impressive win over Oakland. However, we note that even with 70% of the bets landing on Tennessee, the point spread has ticked down from Tennessee -6 at Pinnacle, all the way down to Tennessee -5. There is a lot of smart money coming in on Pittsburgh.
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Tennessee had one of the biggest blowout wins in the NFL's opening weekend, while Pittsburgh squeezed out an overtime win -- at home (!!) -- against Atlanta. Pittsburgh has been in the news a lot due to big Ben's suspension. This kind of media attention (positive for Tennessee and negative for the Steelers) can exaggerate the point spread in big match-ups. How often can you get the Steelers, plus this many points? We like the fact that you can still get +5.5 at ABC, Jazz, and several other sportsbooks.
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Pittsburg Steelers +5.5
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Houston Texans vs Washington Redskins
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Houston's big win over Indy last week has impressed many bettors. The public is on the visiting Texans in a big way, with almost three out of every four bets coming in on the Texans. Let's "bet against the public" and take a solid Washington Redskin squad at home, plus the three points, a good key number.
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There are lots of value indicators found on SportsInsights.com that point to Washington +3. Let's sell the Texans at a "high" after their big win -- and take the Redskins, plus the points. There are lots of +3 available; make sure you grab that key number.
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Washington Redskins +3 -115
Inside Angles
Houston Texans vs. Washington Redskins
The Houston Texans are coming off of the biggest win in the history of the franchise, but that may lead to a flat performance vs. the Washington Redskins this week.
In fact, this is a precarious sandwich spot for Houston, as not only are they coming off of a an impressive 34-24 win over the Colts in a game that was not as close as the final score, but they also have a date win their higher profile in-state rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, up next!
We simply do not see how the Texans can possibly play with any energy this week under those circumstances. As for their on the field performance, it was running back Arian Foster that carried them to victory last week, shredding the Indianapolis defense for 231 rushing yards on 7.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Quarterback Matt Schaub had an uncharacteristically quiet game, completing just nine of 17 passes for only 107 yards.
The Redskins are coming off of a 13-7 upset of the Cowboys where their offense did nothing, as their only touchdown of the game came on a fumble return right before halftime. The defense was fantastic though, and Washington is fully capable of containing the normally potent Houston offense if the Texan come out as flat as they expect.
Besides, the X-factor here is Washington offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, son of the Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan. The younger Shanahan held that exact same OC position with Houston last season, so he is intimately familiar with the Texans’ system and the strengths and weaknesses of the players.
That added knowledge combined with the dreadful scheduling spot for the Texans should be enough for Washington to pull off the outright upset on Sunday.
Pick: Redskins +3 (-120)
Jimmy MooreFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia @ Detroit
Pick: Philadelphia -6.5
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This game set up very well for the Eagles since both teams are forced to start backup QB's. Who would you rather be starting - Vick or Hill? That is a pretty easy decision. Andy Reid knows the importance of not starting a season 0-2 and he has the team that can do something about it while the Lions are still the Lions. This one could get ugly in Detroit.
Joel TysonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia (-6') at DETROIT
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Both the Eagles and the Lions will be without their starting quarterbacks for this Sunday afternoon affair in the Motor City, but my money will be on the visiting Birds from Philly to deliver the road win and cover.
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Philadelphia's track record as a road favorite last season was a solid one, as the Eagles managed to cover in 5 of their 6 tries as the road fave last season. The Birds are also a solid 8-4 against the line when laying 7-points or more should the line move up a hair.
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Prefer to put my trust in the skill-set of Mike Vick over that of Shaun Hill, as the former 49ers back-up doesn't really have much of a running game to work with in this offense.
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Detroit managed only a 3-3 spread mark last season under Coach Schwartz in the home dog role, and the Lions are on an overal 8-15 spread dip at home since the 2007 season.
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Although the Lions were robbed last week in their upset bid at Chicago, it should be noted that Detroit allowed Chicago nearly 500 yards of total offense in that 19-14 setback.
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Have to lay the road chalk with the Eagles to level their season mark at 1-1.
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3♦ PHILADELPHIA
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Miami at MINNESOTA (-5')
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I think Miami knows the only chance they have at springing the road upset this week is to get their running game in gear and try for some good old-fashioned ball control against this Minnesota team.
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The Dolphins hope to control the clock by letting Williams and Brown bang away at that tough Minnesota stop-unit. If they can meet with some success, then I think we are looking at an under in Minny this afternoon.
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Miami stayed under the total last week in their game at Buffalo, and are now 10-4 under the total their last 14 on the highway.
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Brett Favre is still trying to play "catch up" with his receivers, as his lack of work in the preseason really showed how out of synch Favre was with his receiving corps in Minnesota's 14-9 loss at New Orleans on the opening Thursday of the season.
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Without Sidney Rice as the go-to guy, look for the Vikes offense to struggle with putting the big points up on the board.
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I expect Miami and Minnesota to play an under this Sunday at Mall of America Field.
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1♦ UNDER
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Arizona D-Backs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Arizona D-Backs
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Arizona is 59-90 overall this year while Pittsburgh comes in with a 50-98 overall record on the season. Arizona lost to Pittsburgh last night and will be looking for some revenge today. Arizona is 18-8 last 3 years and 1-0 this year as a road favorite of -125 to -150. Pittsburgh is 8-25 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Pittsburgh has lost 7 of their last 10 games overall. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.4 runs per game overall this year and 3.4 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Daniel Hudson is 7-2 with a 2.58 ERA overall this year, 5-1 with a 2.38 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA his last 3 starts. Zach Duke is 7-14 with a 5.78 ERA overall this year and 1-2 with a 14.47 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona today!