Larry NessFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New England Patriots @ New York Jets
PICK: New York Jets +3
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he self-described "best team in the NFL" looked pretty awful last Monday night in losing 10-9 to the Ravens. New York converted just 1-of-11 third-down chances and totaled just 176 yards (Sanchez was 10-of-21 for 74 yards!). Meanwhile, Tom Brady (258 yards, three TDs and zero INTs) and company jumped out to a 28-point lead in the early third quarter vs the Bengals, on their way to a 38-24 win. The results couldn't have been much different. It's interesting how the betting public has handled last week's results. The Bengals were a 'sexy' pick to win at New England in Week 1 but all of a sudden, the Pats have been 'steamed' in this Week 2 game at the Jets, as everyone has seemingly jumped off the Jets' bandwagon. Now I can't stand Rex Ryan and his big mouth (thought his old man was a jerk, as well) and have little faith in Mark Sanchez but this sure 'smells' like a good spot for the Jets. The Jets play next Sunday night at Miami and the schedule-makers have done this team no favors the first three weeks of the season. A loss here (which would mean an 0-2 start at home) would be a 'killer.' While I would laugh, I wouldn't laugh too loud, as my money is on the Jets, who are on a 13-3 ATS run at home following a SU home loss.
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Tennessee Titans -5.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Steelers picked up a huge win last week as a home underdog against the Falcons, but they are going to have a difficult task as they head to Tennessee this week. The Pittsburgh offense sputtered with Dennis Dixon at quarterback as their only offensive touchdown came in over time as Rashard Mendenhall broke a long run to win the game and I don't see they offense doing much better this week against a solid Tennessee defense. The Steelers lost left tackle Starts to a sprained ankle so the offensive line will not be at full strength and they also lost nose tackle Casey Hampton to a hamstring injury that will keep him out of this game. Losing your starting nose tackle is not good when you have to face the best running back in the league in Chris Johnson and a dual threat quarterback in Vince Young. The Steelers defense can only do so much if they are on the field the whole game. Despite being one of the NFL's elite teams during the last decade, the Steelers typically have struggled in Tennessee since the Titans' franchise moved there in 1997. The Steelers are only 1-8 in their nine visits to Tennessee, with the lone victory coming in 2001, and this time around they are not bringing all of the bullets for their gun. Lay the points.
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Buffalo at GREEN BAY (-13)
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The final score might not indicate it, and Michael Vick's antics may have landed him into the "who's going to start at quarterback for the Eagles" conversation, but the fact is the Packers were dominating in their game against the Eagles.
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And today in their home debut for the 2010 season, I don't think the Bills have a the personnel or tools to match wits offensively to keep up with Green Bay.
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Think about it, the Packers went on the road into a nasty Lincoln Financial Field and won 27-20 over Philadelphia, while the Bills opened the season at home against AFC East rival Miami and lost, 15-10.
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And now the Bills have to travel to Lambeau Field for the Packers' home debut.
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Yikes!
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I know we're just one week into the season, but after that first week, just check the numbers:
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The Bills rank 32nd overall on offense, with the 28th-ranked rush and 29th-ranked pass. That won't cut it against a Packers' D that ranks 18th overall, and is taking a step down in class after facing the Eagles last week.
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On the flipside, I don't know how the Bills' defense plans on stopping potential Offensive MVP Aaron Rodgers, or the eighth-best rushing game. True, Ryan Grant is out, but last week a star running back was much more needed than this week, as Rodgers is going to be the focal point for the Packers' home opener.
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And while I know Rodgers will generate plenty of offense with favorite target Donald Driver, you can't expect the Bills to keep up if they only managed 166 yards total offense in season-opening loss to Miami, the lowest offensive output of any team in Week 1.
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It's a big number, I know this, but I'm laying it with the Packers.
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3♦ GREEN BAY
Karl GarrettFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston (-3) at WASHINGTON
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I know the Texans put up 34 big points last week in their win over Indianapolis, but the G-Man does not think Houston is going to be lighting up the FedEx Field scoreboard the way they did last week at home.
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Houston has been an under team on the road of late, going 6-2 under the total last year on the highway, while sporting an overall 8-2-1 under run their last 11 away from home.
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Washington was only able to muster 13 points last week in their 13-7 home win over Dallas, as the 'Skins are now on a 19-9 under run their last 28 home dates.
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Houston would like to get things cranking that is for sure, while Washington knows they cannot keep up with the Texans quick-strike offense, so they have better play this game close to the vest.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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G-Man expects the defenses to win out here, and the Houston-Washington contest to hold under the posted total.
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Take the under.
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2♦ UNDER
Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chiefs at BrownsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: BrownsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City (1-0 SU/ATS) continues to rebuild under Coach Todd Haley, plus they have offensive coordinator Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel for 2010. They all have a lot of work to do on a team that ranked 25th in total offense, 30th in total defense. 28-year old QB Matt Cassell (1 TD, 0 INTs) runs the offense and has some good skill position to work with in RB Jamaal Charles, veteran RB Thomas Jones, WR Dwayne Bowe and rookie speedster Dexter McLuster. They got outgained 389-197 in the opener, but got a win in the rain over the Chargers, 21-14, coming up with a late defensive stand at the goal line. The Browns (0-1 Su/ATS) are off a 5-11 SU, 10-6 ATS season and have new looks on offense for Coach Eric Mangini. That’s a good thing, as the 2009 offense was dead last in the NFL while the defense was second worst. 35-year old QB Jake Delhomme (1 TD, 2 INTs) is off a brutal season in Carolina with 8 TDs and 18 picks. He picked up right where he left off with 2 picks in the opener, a 17-14 loss at Tampa Bay. Delhomme is expected to miss today's game with an ankle injury, which means Seneca Wallace will get the start for the Browns. The Browns are on a rather remarkable 7-0-1 ATS run, and 10-3-1 ATS, undervalued by oddsmakers. I believe this Cheifs team will still be celebrating last week's big win and will not be prepared for today's game. The Chiefs have the edge in talent, but the Browns seem to keep covering spreads. I'm sticking with the Browns here on Sunday.
DUNKEL INDEX
NFL
NY Giants at Indianapolis
The Colts look to bounce back from their loss in Week 1 and build on their 5-1-1 ATS record in their last 7 games versus teams with a winning record. Indianapolis is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-4 1/2)
Game 207-208: Kansas City at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.301; Cleveland 130.260
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-2); Over
Game 209-210: Buffalo at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.497; Green Bay 138.190
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+13 1/2); Under
Game 211-212: Baltimore at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 136.687; Cincinnati 130.637
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6; 44
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-2); Over
Game 213-214: Pittsburgh at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.164; Tennessee 136.371
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 2; 35
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+5 1/2); Under
Game 215-216: Philadelphia at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 129.449; Detroit 124.721
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+7); Over
Game 217-218: Chicago at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.464; Dallas 136.542
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Dallas by 8; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+8); Under
Game 219-220: Tampa Bay at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.054; Carolina 130.959
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 41
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Over
Game 221-222: Arizona at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 129.668; Atlanta 137.989
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Under
Game 223-224: Miami at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.811; Minnesota 141.101
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 8 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 5 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-5 1/2); Under
Game 225-226: St. Louis at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 119.248; Oakland 124.880
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-3); Over
Game 227-228: Seattle at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 124.336; Denver 127.343
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3; 42
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3 1/2); Over
Game 229-230: Houston at Washington (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 137.885; Washington 131.681
Dunkel Line: Houston by 6; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3); Under
Game 231-232: Jacksonville at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 129.696; San Diego 135.964
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 6 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: San Diego by 8; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+8); Over
Game 233-234: New England at NY Jets (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.333; NY Jets 135.044
Dunkel Line: New England by 4 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Under
Game 235-236: NY Giants at Indianapolis (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 134.515; Indianapolis 141.804
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 4 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-4 1/2); Over
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 20
Game 237-238: New Orleans at San Francisco (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 141.546; San Francisco 133.730
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7; 41
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-5 1/2); Under
MLB
Milwaukee at San Francisco
The Brewers look to take advantage of a San Francisco team that is 0-6 in Barry Zito's last 6 starts. Milwaukee is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+125)
Game 901-902: Atlanta at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 14.603; NY Mets (Dickey) 15.412
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Under
Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at Florida (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 16.064; Florida (Miller) 14.531
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+100); Over
Game 905-906: Arizona at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Hudson) 13.935; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.202
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+120); Over
Game 907-908: Washington at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Maya) 14.445; Philadelphia (Blanton) 17.318
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-200); Under
Game 909-910: Cincinnati at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Wood) 14.950; Houston (Myers) 14.291
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Under
Game 911-912: San Diego at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Garland) 14.507; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.083
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+150); Over
Game 913-914: Milwaukee at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.646; San Francisco (Zito) 15.253
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+125); Over
Game 915-916: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.333; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.021
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Under
Game 917-918: Toronto at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Marcum) 16.260; Boston (Lester) 15.098
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+150); Under
Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.481; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.433
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-180); Over
Game 921-922: LA Angels at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.329; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.372
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under
Game 923-924: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Bonderman) 16.187; White Sox (Danks) 13.712
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+135); Over
Game 925-926: Cleveland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Tomlin) 15.511; Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.429
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+110); Under
Game 927-928: Oakland at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cramer) 15.081; Minnesota (Liriano) 16.374
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-200); Over
Game 929-930: Texas at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 16.692; Seattle (Fister) 13.596
Dunkel Line: Texas by 3; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Under
CFL
Edmonton at Montreal
The Alouettes look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record. Montreal is the pick (-12) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 17 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-12)
Game 285-286: Winnipeg at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 109.191; Toronto 107.438
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 2; 55
Vegas Line: Pick; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg; Over
Game 287-288: Edmonton at Montreal (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 103.171; Montreal 120.685
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 17 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Montreal by 12; 53
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-12); Under
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
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Travis Wood was a tough luck loser last time out going 5 innings allowing just three runs but lost 3-1 as the Red's bats couldn't hit Arizona pitching. Houston is sending 12 game winner Brett Myers who has an era under 3. Surprisingly Myers is making his first start against division foe Cincinnati, and is very tough at home where he is 7-0 this year. Look for Myers to stay perfect at home as the Astros beat the Reds. Play Houston
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New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Play: New England Patriots -2.5
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The Jets may be dejected off a hard fought tough loss vs Baltimore, while NE looks to be the real deal. For system purposes we want to Play against home teams from +3 to -3 that were at home at +3 to -3 and scored 10 or less points and had 150 or less yards passing. These short homers are 1-8 straight up since 1989. The Jets are a dismal 1-10 ats at home vs the Patriots and 0-9 ats at home in Game 1 or 2 with revenge. The Patriots are 12-2 ats in divisional play off a double digit win vs opponents who are less than .500. Look for the Patriots to get the win and cover here today.
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You could say that as goes righthander Adam Wainwright, so go the 2010 Cardinals. After Wainwright went to 17-6 with a victory on August 11, the Cards were 64-49 and one game up on the Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central and all systems appeared to be headed in the right direction. Since then, Wainwright has gone 1-5 in six starts, and even though he only goes to the hill every five games at the most, the Cardinals have followed suit with Wainwright's collapse, posting a record of 12-22 since that time and falling seven games behind the Reds and in danger of being removed from the post-season picture all together. Wainwright's last five starts have been particularly alarming as he has only one quality outing during that time and has posted a 4.90 ERA. Despite giving up 12 hits and five runs in his last start, Wainwright went deep in the game (eight innings) and he will likely need to do so again today because the Cardinal bullpen has been atrocious lately, allowing 16 runs in the 7th-9th innings over the past five games, including losing the game on Saturday with four runs allowed in the 9th. He may very well get some run support this afternoon, as Padre righthander Jon Garland has not fared well in his career vs. the Cards going 1-3 with a 4.98 ERA in just under 17 innings against them. The over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in St. Louis. Take the 'over.'
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Kansas City at CLEVELAND (-3)
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For Sunday’s first of two NFL complimentary selections – and I’ve hit 15 of 20 free plays in September, including seven of the last eight – I’ll side with the Browns as a small home chalk against Kansas City.
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Both these teams had Week 1 results that were very misleading. Cleveland lost 17-14 at Tampa Bay despite a 340-288 edge in total offense. And the only touchdowns the Browns surrendered came with eight seconds left in the first half and 1:52 left in the game.
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Meanwhile, the Chiefs were actually completely outplayed by the Chargers in a downpour on Monday night. San Diego racked up 377 yards to Kansas City’s 197, with Chiefs QB Matt Cassel doing his best Mark Sanchez impersonation (10-for-22 for 68 yards). The only reason the Chiefs won was because they got a 56-yard touchdown run from Jamaal Charles, a 94-yard punt return from rookie Dexter McCluster and they benefited from a fumble deep in their territory that set up an easy TD.
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Kansas City also got a tremendous boost from a lubed-up home crowd on Monday (not to mention the soggy elements that slowed down the Chargers). Now the Chiefs hit the road and they do so on a short week (K.C. has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 following a Monday night game).
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The Browns went to Kansas City last December and rushed for 351 yards in a 41-34 victory as a two-point road underdog, which is part of Cleveland’s ongoing 7-1 ATS run (only non-cover came by a half-point at Tampa last week). The Browns also covered in their final four home games last year, winning the last three outright. Even though Browns starting QB Jake Delhomme is expected to sit out with an injury, there’s no real dropoff between him and Senaca Wallace (and frankly, Wallace is probably better at this point).
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This Chiefs are in a huge letdown spot here coming off that upset of San Diego on Monday, and with the Browns being at home and steamed after letting one get away at Tampa last week, we’ll side with the home team at a discounted price.
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5♦ CLEVELAND
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Chicago at DALLAS (-7)
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For my second NFL complimentary selection Sunday, I’ll lay the points with the Cowboys at home against Chicago.
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Might seem odd to give more than a touchdown with a team that managed just one last week in an embarrassing 13-7 loss at Washington – especially when today’s opponent is coming off a win. However, the Bears absolutely should’ve lost to the Lions at home (we all know about the Calvin Johnson game-winning TD catch that wasn’t). At the same time, Dallas was in a tough spot in Week 1, facing a divisional rival on the road in a prime-time contest, and in reality it dominated the Redskins in every spot but the scoreboard (the Cowboys had 277 passing yards and 103 rushing yards, while Washington had 89 and 161, respectively).
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The Cowboys are expected to get back two of their injured offensive linemen today, which will make an enormous difference as Tony Romo was running for his life last week at the Redskins (and really throughout the preseason). And that’s really what this play comes down to: Dallas has massive advantages on both the offense and defensive lines, and I fully expect Jay Cutler – always prone to mistakes – to be running for his life all day long. Certainly, he’s facing a much tougher defense this week than he did against Detroit.
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The Cowboys covered in six of their eight home games last year and they’re 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 the week after facing Washington, while Chicago is in pointspread ruts of 2-8 overall, 1-5 on the road and 2-8 against NFC foes.
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3♦ DALLAS COWBOYS
Bobby MaxwellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore at CINCINNATI (+3)
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Today's FREE winner comes from the NFL as I grab the points with the Bengals as they host the Ravens in Cincinnati.
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With my paid plays, you've got to grab my biggest NFL winner of the season with 700 Units at stake in the Texans-Redskins contest. I was perfect on opening Sunday and I'm going to do the same today.
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For my freebie, the Ravens looked good on Monday night in New York when they beat the Jets 10-9, but now they’ve had to get ready with the short week of practice and have to go into Cincinnati to face a Bengals’ squad that looked sluggish in their opener in New England last Sunday.
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The key to today’s game is going to be the pass protection the Cincinnati offensive line can give to QB Carson Palmer. Baltimore is banged up in the defensive secondary with safety Ed Reed out up to six weeks, Dominique Foxworth out for the season and CB Lardarius Webb also out with a knee injury. If they give Palmer time, the Bengals will be able to put up some points today.
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Palmer threw for 345 yards and two scores in New England last week and he was only sacked once. The Bengals’ running game struggled against the Patriots, managing just 87 yards on 25 carries. It won’t get any better here against the front 7 of the Ravens defense, but they will be able to throw the ball. RB Cedric Benson racked up 237 rushing yards in two wins over the Ravens last year and it was the Cincinnati defense that forced four turnovers in the two games.
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And the Cincinnati WRs will deliver like they did last week. Chad Johnson had 12 catches for 159 yards and Terrell Owens finished with seven catches with rookie Jordan Shipley finishing with five for 82 yards. They are deep and talented at the receiver spot and that’s going to cause Baltimore fits.
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The reason the poor defensive backfield didn’t cost them against the Jets is because New York is struggling with QB Mark Sanchez and his reads.
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Baltimore couldn’t get any running attack working against the Jets as Ray Rice had just 43 yards on 21 carries. Last season against these Bengals, QB Joe Flacco threw just one TD and four INTs in two contests.
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The last four times these teams have met in Cincinnati with Palmer in the game, the Bengals have come out on top. The Bengals are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including last season’s 17-7 victory as three-point favorites. Cincinnati is on ATS surges of 5-2 against AFC North rivals and 7-3 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Baltimore is on ATS slides of 1-3-1 in the division, 1-3-1 after a spread-cover and 3-8 on the road against losing teams.
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I’m definitely going to grab the points but I’m not going to be shocked when the Bengals put up some points and get the outright winner today.
4♦ CINCINNATI
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N.Y. Giants at INDIANAPOLIS (-4')
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I've got a FREE winner for you in the Manning Bowl tonight in Indianapolis as I go with the big brother Peyton and the Colts to get the win and cover over Eli and the Giants.
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With my paid plays, you've got to grab my biggest NFL winner of the season with 700 Units at stake in the Texans-Redskins contest. I was perfect on opening Sunday and I'm going to do the same today.
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For my free winner, the focus for the Colts all week has been pass protection. That will work tonight and you’ll see the Colts shred the New York secondary and get the big win.
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Peyton was sacked twice, but he was pressured all day in Houston, forcing to move his feet and getting him out of rhythm. The Colts fell 34-24 in Houston and while Peyton had a monster game with 433 yards and three TDs, his running game was non-existent as they managed just 44 yards on the ground.
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The Giants rely heavily on the defensive line getting pressure on the QB and they sacked Carolina’s Matt Moore four times last week, knocking him out of the game. Look for more draw plays from the Colts to Joseph Addai to keep the New York defensive line honest.
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Eli threw for 263 yards and three TDs last week against the Panthers, but he also threw three INTs. If he throws three picks tonight, the Giants aren’t going to win the game. In all, New York committed four turnovers, had 95 yards in penalties and went just 5-for-14 on third down. Those are all numbers that normally lead to losses in the NFL.
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The Colts are on ATS streaks of 5-1-1 against winning teams, 5-2 in the second week of the season and 4-1-1 on fieldturf. Meanwhile, the Giants are just 3-9 ATS in their last 2 games overall.
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The Giants were lucky to be playing the lowly Panthers last week or they might have lost their home opener. They have trouble holding onto the ball and that will cost them in this one. Indy looked very lackluster in Houston last weekend, but you’ll see the precision they are known for return today at home and get the crowd involved early. Lay the points with Peyton and the Colts as they will win this one by 10.
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3♦ INDIANAPOLIS
Stephen NoverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami at MINNESOTA (-5')
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I am 1-0 on my NFL free selections this season after cashing last week on the Pittsburgh Steelers. In baseball, I'm on a 70-49-2 run through Friday. I have had only one losing NFL season during the past 17 years and this Sunday I have my strongest play of the season going.
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I'm taking the Vikings as an NFL free selection today.
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Brett Favre looked old and rusty in the Vikings' season-opener. Oh, wait, Favre is old and rusty after missing training camp. But now he and the Vikings' offense are rested and have had 10 days to prepare and get their timing down for their first home matchup.
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I expect Favre to play much better, especially now that Percy Harvin has checked out fine. Harvin is a dangerous playmaker who will be used frequently against the Dolphins, along with Adrian Peterson.
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The Dolphins have injuries in their defensive line and at linebacker. Their secondary is young and shaky. Former Dolphin wide receiver Greg Camarillo is now with the Vikings. The veteran should prove useful dispensing information and knowing the seams of Miami's defense.
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Miami is a physical, hard-nosed team. The Dolphins, though, are not a turf type of squad. Playing in a dome is a bad setting for them. They have trouble containing speed.
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The Dolphins are slow starters. They are 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 September games. They were lucky to have drawn the pathetic Bills last week.
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Miami quarterback Chad Henne looked terrible during preseason and wasn't any better in the Dolphins' 15-10 Week 1 road win against Buffalo. This is Miami's second straight road game. Minnesota is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home contests.
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I predict Chad Pennington will soon reclaim the starting job in Miami replacing Henne. For now, though, Henne is the starter. He needs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to be effective on the ground.
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The Vikings have finished first or second in run defense during the past five years. This spot and matchup are real bad for Miami. The Vikings are 8-2 ATS following a loss. Look for the Vikings to bounce back in big fashion.
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1♦ MINNESOTA
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St. Louis (+3) at OAKLAND
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I am 1-0 with my NFL free selections this season after cashing last week on the Pittsburgh Steelers. In baseball, I'm on a 70-49-2 run through Friday. I have turned a profit on my NFL plays during 16 of the last 17 years and this Sunday I have my strongest play of the season going.
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I'm taking the underdog Rams as an NFL free play today.
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This is a case of bad versus bad. So why get involved? Because it's the Oakland Raiders that are laying more than a field goal. You would have to go back to 2005 to find the last time the Raiders covered when favored. They have failed to cover the past 11 times when chalk.
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The Raiders were supposed to be improved, but they sure didn't show it in getting smashed in their opener at Tennessee. The defense couldn't stop the run again, yielding 205 yards on the ground, and the offense was out of sync.
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Jason Campbell was taking too long to pass and the Raiders' porous offensive line couldn't give him anywhere close to maximum protection time with his big windup release. Campbell was sacked four times and failed to have any chemistry with his wide receivers, or with underrated tight end Zach Miller.
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Rookie center Jared Veldheer was particularly brutal for the Raiders. A rookie center and a new quarterback rarely are a good combination.
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Yes, the Raiders are home this time. But the Raiders also have the worst home mark in the NFL during the past seven years at 17-39. They have dropped their last five home-openers by an average of 15.8 points per game.
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Oakland doesn't have to face Chris Johnson this week. But the Raiders do draw Steven Jackson, who is still one of the best running backs in football.
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2♦ ST. LOUIS
Craig DavisFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New England (-3) at NEW YORK JETS
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Today's free play winner is on the New England Patriots over the Jets. I'm not sure about you, but I've heard just about enough of the Jets' hype. Not that I'm a huge Patriots fan, because I'm not, but I have heard quite enough from the Jets and I was the first one to pump my fist when the Ravens beat them Monday night.
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Now the Jets, on a short week, are supposed to get back up for this Patriots offense and keep them down for four quarters? Sorry, I just don't see it.
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The Pats posted 38 points with relative ease last week against Cincy and I'm not sure how hard they were really trying in the second half. They'll be up for this game because it's a division game and because it's the Jets... it's kinda hard not to be ready for the team that was seen running its mouths on HBO's Hard Knocks.
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Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Fred Taylor, and a host of other offensive weapons should be ready to keep the Jets defense honest today. Granted, I don't expect New England to have as much ease as they had vs. the Bengals last week, but nothing can convince me the Jets can keep the Pats quiet for four quarters.
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Should be another low-scoring game because we've seen what the Jets are capable of on offense, and it's not much. Mark Sanchez is a train-wreck and I have absolutely no faith in him or the Jets offense. I like the Pats to win this thing by at least a touchdown, making it my free play of the day.
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4♦ NEW ENGLAND
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I’m giving away. For Sunday’s free NFL play, we’ll lay the big points with Green Bay against the Bills.
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There’s a reason why the Packers are far and away the biggest favorite on the board today: This is a mismatch of the highest order. You name the matchup – quarterbacks vs. secondaries, offensive lines vs. defensive lines, special teams, coaching, etc. – and Green Bay doesn’t just get the check mark, it’s an overwhelming advantage.
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Normally, I’d be worried about the fact the Packers lost starting tailback Ryan Grant to a season-ending injury, but the Packers weren’t going to be running the ball much today anyway. This is a game where Aaron Rodgers is going to air it out a lot and to great success because he’s going to have all day to throw (Buffalo simply won’t be able to generate a consistent pass rush against the Packers’ stout offensive line).
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There are few NFL teams you can trust to lay this big of a number, but Green Bay is definitely one of them. The Packers last year were a double-digit chalk three times, and here were the results: 26-0 win over Detroit as a 14-point home favorite; 34-12 win over Detroit as an 11-point road chalk; 48-10 win over the Seahawks as a 13½-point home favorite. Those three victories are part of Green Bay’s 10-2-1 ATS regular-season run (4-1-1 ATS at Lambeau).
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In fact, eight of Green Bay’s last 11 wins have been double-digit blowouts. Make it nine of 12 today!
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6♦ GREEN BAY PACKERS
VEGAS VIC
LIONS (+6) over Eagles
Humongous line move in this game from an open of Birds -3 to now -6. So the question is, are they betting on quarterback Michael Vick and his superb second-half performance against the Packers? Or is the public betting against Detroit backup QB Shaun Hill? Probably a mixture of both. What should have been Kevin Kolb against Matthew Stafford (and a line of Eagles -3) is now a battle of the backups. Gotta give the edge to Vick, but at plus-6, Double V's gonna roll with the home 'dog here. And speaking of home 'dogs, they did very well last week, covering five of seven, with a push on the Rams-Cards game if you bought it at plus-4. Home opener, plus six, with a new and improved defense is the winning ticket for Detroit. Especially with the Birds possibly losing linebacker Stewart Bradley to a concussion, as well as center Jamaal Jackson and fullback Leonard Walker going on the dreaded injured reserve list.
FALCONS (-6) over Cardinals
Atlanta didn't show too well on the road Sunday against the Steelers, losing, 15-9, but under coach Mike Smith, the Falcons have proved to be a much better squad at home. They have won 13 of 16 in Atlanta the last 2 years, with a respectable 11-5 mark against the spread. QB Matt Ryan owns a phenomenal 13-1 mark at home since taking over, and you know the joint will be rocking. In home openers under Smith, the Falcs whipped the Lions in 2008, 34-21, as a thtree-point underdog, and topped the Dolphins last season, 19-7, as a four-point favorite. Arizona barely squeezed past one of the worst teams in the NFL, St. Louis, 17-13, and if you watched wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, you know he isn't close to 100 percent. And the last memory Atlanta has of the Cards is getting bounced from the 2008 playoffs in Arizona, 30-24. Did anyone say revenge? Double V says Best Bet!
VIKINGS (-5) over Dolphins
Kinda hard to buck perfection. Last season, Minnesota had a perfect 8-0 record at home, 9-0 if you count the 34-3 win over Dallas in the playoffs. Obviously, Brett Favre was a little rusty after missing almost all of the preseason, but the Vikes will have had 10 days between games, and he should be ready to go. And since Miami has only nine wins in the last 24 road outings, Vic is prepared to go purple to line my pockets with green.
RAIDERS (-3) over Rams
There was a ton of buzz around Oakland heading into Week 1, and the Raiders fell flat on their faces. Of course, it was against Tennessee and Chris Johnson, a team that is light years ahead of St. Louis. What do you actually get when the Rams come to town? You get an inept crew that has compiled a 4-20 record on the road the last 3 years and is rolling with a rookie QB. Perfect spot for the Silver & Black.
CHARGERS (-7) over Jaguars
Speaking of buzz, San Diego was tabbed by many of the experts as one of the three or four teams to represent the AFC on Super Bowl Sunday, so we're just throwing the opening-week loss right in the trash. The Lightning Bolts have been solid at home under Norv Turner, winning 20 of the last 27, while Jacksonville has been pathetic against the spread, covering only three of the last 13. Gotta ride the Bolts.
Patriots (-2) over JETS
These Jets just can't keep their mouths shut. Darrelle Revis thinks Randy Moss is a slouch. OK, whatever. He should be more concerned about his side of the ball without defensive tackle Kris ******* (knee) and LB Calvin Pace (foot). Brady by a TD.
49ERS (+5) over Saints
New Orleans had extra rest and is the defending Super Bowl champ. San Francisco looked horrible Sunday against Seattle. So, naturally, the Niners will cover as a big, fat home underdog.
Chiefs (+2) over BROWNS
This is the quintessential "who cares" game. Which means, don't you dare spend a dime on this goop.
Bills (+13) over PACKERS
This double-digits game is worth a light touch. But make sure you keep it light.
BENGALS (+3) over Ravens
Cincy beat Baltimore twice last year, and that was without T.O. Bengals should squeeze out another W.
TITANS (-5) over Steelers
Still can't wrap my head around Pittsburgh second-string QB Dennis Dixon.
COWBOYS (-7) over Bears
If Dallas wants to play at home in the Super Bowl, an 0-2 start would be a disaster.
PANTHERS (-3) over Buccaneers
With four wins in the last 21 outings, Tampa has no shot at the roses in this matchup.
BRONCOS (-3) over Seahawks
Seattle opened strong at home, but, on the road, the 'Hawks have covered only one of the last eight.
REDSKINS (+3) over Texans
Maybe Donovan McNabb is the answer to all of Washington's prayers.
Giants (+5) over COLTS
Taking Eli in the "Manning Bowl" since Indy lost safety Bob Sanders (biceps), one of its best on defense.