John Ryan
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Prediction: Detroit Lions
5* graded play on Detroit as they take on the Eagles et to start at 1 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Detroit will lose this game by six or fewer points and also has a reasonable opportunity to win this game. This is a game of backups and after news that both starters were out for this game the line moved from Philly by three points to Philly by six points. The reason that the Vick is the better backup, but the game of football requires 11 players to be in complete sync to be successful. Vick will have a great game, which will start a QB controversy in the city of brotherly love. He can?t do it all himself. The Eagles defense is going to be the dominant story. They are weak up the middle and Detroit will have strong success running the ball between the tackles. Detroit is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after being outgained by 200 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. We all know that Detroit won last week?s game against Chicago, but a technical ruling eliminated an incredible TD catch by Crabtree. Still, this will add immense confidence to the Lions as a team; that they are heading in the right direction. A matchup I see playing out BIG for the Lions is their TE Tony Sheffler matched up against an Eagle linebacker. He was the top target last week. The Eagles love to bring pressure, but with a very good TE, that pressure becomes very vulnerable down the seams of the defense. He has great hands and better speed than any of the Eagle linebackers. The Eagles cannot put a safety or nickel back on him for two reasons. He is too physical for them at the line of scrimmage and this leaves Crabtree in man coverage. Take the Lions.
Tom Freese
Reds at Astros
Play: Under
Cincinnati starter Travis Wood has allowed 3 or less runs in his last 4 starts. The Reds are 12-3-1 UNDER after scoring 5 runs or more in their last game. The Reds are 31-12-9 UNDER their last 52 Sunday games. Cincinnati is 9-1-1 UNDER off a win. The Reds are 48-23-6 UNDER in game 3 of series. Houston starter Brett Myers has allowed 3 or runs in 7 straight starts. The Astros are 20-6 UNDER their last 26 games and they are 34-15-2 UNDER their last 51 games vs. lefty starters. The Astros are 6-0 UNDER with Myers as a underdog.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
An 0-1 favorite returns home to host a 1-0 underdog in a must-win situation. Dolphins backers were lucky to cover last week in Buffalo, thanks to an intentional safety. The Vikings did not lose at home last season and their defense allowed Drew Brees and New Orleans to score only once following a TD on the opening drive. Should be around a 30-6 score here.
Play on: Minnesota
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
In a battle of backup QBs, I have to give the edge to Michael Vick. Vick looked like his old self in relief of Kevin Kolb last week, hurting the Packers with his legs and his arm. Meanwhile, Shaun Hill really struggled to move the Lions down the field against the Chicago Bears, and I expect those struggles to continue against an aggressive and speedy Philly unit. The Eagles are a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, and they have won those 5 games by an average of 17 points. You also have to love the fact that plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in their last 5 games, if that team won 25% of fewer games on the season, playing a team that had a winning record last year, are 17-3 ATS the last 10 seasons, including a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 years. Take the Eagles.
Tom Stryker
Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings -5.5
Minnesota had several chances to deliver a knockout punch to New Orleans in last Thursday’s season opener. Unfortunately, the Vikings just couldn’t get the job done. With a couple of extra days to prepare, the Purple will take care of business against this overrated Miami bunch.
Respect is certainly given to a Dolphins team that has covered 14 of their last 20 on the road. However, the Vikings have been tough to beat when priced as a home favorite of -6’ or less posting a profitable 16-7 ATS record. Minny has played well inside the Metrodome against non-division opponents as well notching an impressive 48-32-1 ATS mark.
With quarterback Brett Favre behind center, the Vikes were in a zone last season. Inside the bubble, Favre was a perfect 9-for-9 with Minnesota and his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 25-2 was absolutely incredible. The Purple won those nine contests by an average margin of 18.8 points per game and they’ll be looking to keep that streak alive here.
This isn’t the easiest scheduling spot for the Fish either. After opening at division rival Buffalo, Miami must travel to Minnesota and then return home to face the NY Jets, New England and, after a bye, play at Green Bay! The Dolphins would be absolutely elated to head back home with a 1-1 SU record. Meanwhile, with only a home game against Detroit on deck, the Vikings would love to go into their bye with a 2-1 SU record before tackling the Jets, Cowboys, Packers, Patriots and Cardinals after their week off! Take Minnesota.
LT Profits
Athletics / Twins Under 7½
The Oakland Athletics and the Minnesota Twins have now gone ‘under’ in five straight meetings this season including a 4-2 Minnesota win yesterday, and we look for that streak to reach six today.
The bookmakers have installed a total of 7½ for this contest, with the betting odds favoring the ‘under’ at -120.
Francisco Liriano of the Twins has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball since the All-Star break, as Minnesota as a team has won nine of his last 10 starts. Liriano has eight Quality Starts in those 10 outings, allowing two runs or less in seven of them, allowing one run one and also tossing four scoreless outings! This brings him to 14-7 with a 3.28 ERA for the season with 189 strikeouts against 55 walks in 178.1 innings.
Liriano also now gets to take advantage of a struggling Oakland lineup that is batting a dismal .236 over the last 10 games while averaging a lowly 3.50 runs per game. Not surprisingly, Liriano tossed a gem in his only start vs. Oakland this year, allowing one run and five hits in seven innings with 10 strikeouts.
Oakland’s Bobby Cramer is making his second Major League start, and he pitched well in his debut, allowing one run on only four hits in 5.1 innings at Kansas City, He should be tough on a Twins lineup that has never seen him before, and if Oakland limits the youngsters innings again, their bullpen has been amazing lately, with a 1.76 ERA in the last 10 games.
Look for pitching to rule the day at Target Field this afternoon.
BEN BURNS
San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
The Padres earned a rare win at Busch Stadium yesterday. They're still 1-11 their last 12 here though. Grabbing this afternoon's series finale figures to be more difficult.
Garland got the better of Wainwright when these two faced each other at Petco Park, back in May. Wainwright was outstanding. In seven innings, he allowed only four hits, one walk and one run, striking out 12. Garland didn't allow a single run though and the Padres earned a 1-0 victory. However, that result notwithstanding, Wainwright has enjoyed the much better season and his home numbers are far superior to Garland's road numbers.
Through 14 road starts, Garland is a 7-6 with a respectable 3.81 ERA and 1.306 WHIP. Despite 'cooling off,' a bit lately, through 15 home starts, Wainwright is still 11-3 with an excellent 1.83 ERA and 0.978 WHIP.
With the exception of the 1-0 game in May, Wainwright has also enjoyed more success vs. today's opponent. Garland is 1-3 with a 4.98 ERA vs. St. Louis. His last start here resulted in a 6-1 loss. In two starts vs. the Padres, Wainwright has a 0.64 ERA. Note that Wainwright's lone home start vs. San Diego resulted in a 9-2 St. Louis victory. While the playoffs are very likely out of the question, the Cards are still mathematically alive, which should ensure a maximum effort. Given Wainwright's home dominance, the price seems reasonable. Consider laying the wood.
Scott Rickenbach
Buffalo Bills @ Green Bay Packers
PICK: Green Bay Packers -13
This is a lot of points but we truly believe that the disparity warrants laying the big number here. Keep in mind, the Bills were taking on a defense last week (the Dolphins) that had just 5 returning starters from last season’s defense. Even with that fact, coupled with the fact that the game was played in Buffalo, the Bills still only managed to total 9 first downs and just 166 yards of offense! Now Buffalo goes on the road and faces a much tougher defense. Also, the Packers faced a solid Eagles defense last week and they still put up 27 points on the scoreboard. Green Bay should have no trouble slicing through one of the worst teams in the league.
As a big favorite, the Packers have done well as they are currently on a 3-0 ATS run when favored by double digits. The Bills are very weak at the line of scrimmage as their pass rush struggles and their offensive line play is among the worst in the league. Conversely, the Packers are solid at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Packers are worth a look here and we grab the line value now that the spread has come down on them. Consider a small play on Green Bay minus the points in early Sunday afternoon action.
Freddy Wills
Browns -2.5
Really like the Browns to win in surprising fashion. Chiefs haven't beaten the Browns since 2003 and they come into a tough spot off a Monday night game now playing on Sunday. Bottom line their offense looked non existent with Cassel throwing for just 68 yards against a vulnerable Chargers defense. Their special teams was the reason they won on Monday and now that there is some tape on the two new returners the Browns should be able to plan accordingly. Special teams was the name of the game a year ago when Cribbs brought two kicks back. I expect lots of strategy on special teams to win this game, but when it comes down to it. The Browns have had more time to prepare and are at home. After week 1 you'd think the Chiefs are favorites right, but they are not there must be a reason. The Chiefs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Steelers +6
Look for the Steelers to keep this one within the number behind a dominant defensive performance. Pittsburgh's defense held former All-Pro Michael Turner to 42 yards on 19 carries last week. The Steelers have held Chris Johnson to under 70 yards both times they have faced him, and I expect them to bottle him up again today. That puts the pressure on Vince Young to win the football game with his arm, and Young hasn't showed that he can do that consistently. Tennessee is only 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Take the Steelers and the points Sunday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +1.34 over SAN FRANCISCO
Barry Zito hasn’t won a game since July 16, a span of 12 starts and one relief appearance. Zito has thrown some decent games over that stretch but so what. His chances of throwing a strong game are far less than his chances of throwing a good one. His ERA over his last 13 starts is 5.00 and his xERA over the past month (31 days) is 5.71. Furthermore, the Giants are seeing BB’s and have now scored two or fewer runs in six of its last eight games. The Brewers have won the first two games of this series and have a great chance to sweep with Chris Narverson going. Narveson hit a stretch in July that may have poisoned views on him. An 8.17 ERA that month was certainly ugly, but that's why we shouldn't look at surface stats. His xERA in July was just 4.17 and that has dropped even lower over his last six starts to 3.74. Over his last four starts, covering 26.1 innings, Narverson has struck out 30 batters while walking just eight. In fact, Narverson has allowed three ER or less in nine straight starts and he’s a completely different pitcher than the one the Giants rocked earlier in the year. Giants have no advantage whatsoever in this contest. Play: Milwaukee +1.34 (Risking 2 units).
Doug Upstone
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Play: Over 39½
The total on the Miami and Minnesota game has sunk during the course of the week. Brett Favre and Minnesota looked out of sync in scoring nine points at New Orleans and the Dolphins were not exactly world–beaters in totaling 15 points in victory over Buffalo, however their defense did limit the Bills to 10 points in the win.
For Sunday, look to Play Over on road teams against the total, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game, against opponent after they scored nine points or less in last contest. Since 2001, this system is 51-16, 76.1 percent.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY TOTAL OF THE MONTH
Washington/ Houston Under 43
This is also a POWER ANGLE PLAY for me as well. How bad did the Skins offense look Sunday night? It's gonna take a few games fr Mcnaab and company to jell, it looks like. till then this tough Redskins defense will have to carry the load. They allowed a good Dallas run game just 89 yrds in the opener and i feel they can stop the Houston rush attack in this one as well. the texans had over 250 yrds on the ground vs the Colts poor run defense, but Schaub was not solid at throwing the ball as he connected on 9 of 17 for just 98 yrds. The Skins will stack the box here and make Schaub try an beat them and he won't have a good day vs an underrated skins secondary. Texans did allow Manning to throw for big yardage but they were also way ahead and i just don't see Mcnaab having a good day as he and the rest of the offense are just not on the same page yet.This game should end up in the mid 30's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Under is 22-7 during the 1st 4 weeks of the season if a non-div home dog and it's foe are both off wins.
3 UNIT PLAY
New England -3 over NY JETS
The pats are 13-4-1 ATS as div road faves, while the Jets are 1-10 ATS hosting the Pats. The monday night game showed us theb Jets and Sanchez are NOT ready to take that next step just yet. The defense did play well but the offense was held to just 6 first downs and under 175 yrds. ouch. Now I know the pats defense isn't as strong as the Ravens, but their offense is more than capable of putting up enough points to get the cover here. New England showed that they are ready to contend with an easy win over the Bengals and i see them having little problems with the Jets here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Green Bay -13 over Buffalo
Carolina/ Tampa Bay Under 39
1 UNIT PLAYS
Minnesota -5.5 over Miami
Atlanta -6.5 over Arizona
Triple Threat Sports
Giants/Colts Over
As for tonight, we like the Over since Bob Sanders is out for the Colts, and even with him in the game they struggled to stop the running game of the Texans last week, so the Giants should be able to move the ball. As for the Colts offense, lets just say that Peyton Manning is a little bit better than Matt Moore, so do not see Big Blue having the same type of stop unit success. Finally, note that interconference SNF games are 29-17 (62%) to the Over since 1995.