Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday September, 2

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Atlanta BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Braves send Pat Maholm to the hill against Cole Hamels and the Phillies in the wrap up of this three-game series Sunday afternoon, Maholm will enter the game 9-4 with a 2.64 ERA in his home team starts this season. That's markedly better than his 4-8 log with a 4.46 ERA away from home this campaign. On the flip side Hamels sports a shaky 3-5 team start mark with a 5.18 ERA in his last eight starts in Atlanta, and is 1-5 in his last six away team starts during September. With that we'll stay at home with the Braves today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cardinals at Nationals
Prediction: OverFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis finally broke out of their horrible slump at the plate with a 10 run outburst yesterday. While the teams did combine for 19 runs, I expect another higher scoring game than expected in this one. Jake Westbrook has been lit-up in his last two starts and he's been tagged for a 6.23 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a .309 BAA in three starts against the Nats. It should be noted, while the righthander has pitched well in night games, he has a 4.88 ERA in daytime starts in 2012. In fact, Westbrook has been saddled with a 4.81 ERA or higher in daytime action in each of his last three seasons. I'm not going to try to find fault with Stephen Strasburg, but he didn't look too hot his last time out - and he will face one of the best "hit-squads" he's faced in his career on Sunday. Factor in the relatively low total and neither team has to "go crazy" at the plate to send this one Over the posted number. The Over is on a 6-0 run when these two teams meet and I expect another one today. I'm recommending a play on the Over between the Cardinals & Nationals on Sunday.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit TigersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tigers are too high to unit rate, but we can have some fun here with them as a free play as we note that home favorites of -140 or higher with a total of 8 or less have won 24 of 31 times if they are off a home favored win and scored 5 or more runs with 10 or more men left on base, and their opponent is off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs. The Tigers have won 16 of 21 on Sunday which indicates they have played well in series finales this season. Chicago has lost 7 of 8 to Detroit this season and have to face Verlander in this one. Verlander has won 8 of his last 9 home starts in September and has a sharp 1.75 home era this year. He has won 6 of his last 7 here at home vs Chicago as well. C. Sale makes the start for Chicago and he has lost both career starts vs Detroit to go along with a 6.00 era in those games. His road era this year is 3.91 and he will have to be lights out tonight to win. Don't think he will be. Look for Detroit to take the series finale here at home under the light son ESPN.

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland A's
Play: Boston Red SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The 74-57 Athletics are at Home to Host the 62-71 Red Sox on Sunday for Game 3 of their 3 game series in Oakland. Boston gives the rock to 1-3 Matsuzaka while 2-0 Anderson gets the nod for Oakland. Matsuzaka starts his day off with a 5.10 ERA Overall giving up 17 earned runs in 30 innings pitched allowing 10 BB and recording 26 K's. On the other side of the grass, Anderson begins the Day with a 0.64 ERA giving up 1 earned run in 14 innings pitched allowing 2 BB and recording 11 K's. The Athletics are 1-4 in Anderson's last 5 Starts following a quality Start in his last appearance and 2-5 in his last 7 starts against American League East Clubs. The Red Sox are 4-1 in Matsuzakas last 5 Starts as a Road Underdog of +110 to +150 and 4-1 in His last 5 Starts during game 3 of a series. Boston and Matsuzaka win easily today.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox +155
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After losing the first two games of this series, the Chicago White Sox are obviously motivated to get Game 3 tonight. They lead the Detroit Tigers by just one game in the AL Central division race.
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Chris Sale has been one of the most underrated starters in the league in 2012. The left-hander is 15-5 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 24 starts this season. He'll be up against Justin Verlander, who gave up eight earned runs in 5 2/3 innings his last time out against Kansas City.
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The White Sox are 5-0 in Sale's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Chicago is 9-1 in Sale's last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet the White Sox Sunday.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU vs Baylor
Pick: SMUFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baylor is obviously down from last year, although I see Art Briles improving the Bears as the season progresses. But this opener might not be easy against an SMU team that despite being inexperienced, is likely improved. I'll side with the Mustangs plus the points.

JR O'DonnellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville -13.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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At 3:30 PM EST the Louisville Cardinals, picked to win the Big East host their arch rival the University of Kentucky Wildcats. Louisville is expected to dominate the weak Big East while the Cats are picked to struggle thru the very tough SEC. It shows how confident the UK fans are in that they passed and only bought 2000 of their 5000 ticket allotment. L-Ville comes in with big expectations, while UK comes in with real questions in their secondary, while the Cards have a veteran very strong defense. Plus the rivalry has been festering, and has been pushed to a new height with billboard statements both ways, and back-up QB Morgan Newton saying that the Cats would shine in the easy Big East schedule.LOUISVILLE CARDINAL -13!!

ParlayJoe

Over 58 Southern MethodistBaylor

The over is 20-7 in Bears last 27 home games and both defenses are very vulnerable. I expect a high scoring game with a fairly easy cover of the over. Play is on SMU/Baylor Over 58

John RyanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kentucky at LouisvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: LouisvilleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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5* graded play on the Louisville Cardinal as they take on the Kentucky Wildcat for state bragging rights set to start at 3:30 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Louisville will win this game by 15 or more points. Louisville defense will contain Kentucky to less than 21 points in this contest. In past games this is not good news for Kentucky as they are just 11-24 ATS since 1992 when scoring 14 to 21 points in a game. Louisville returns seven starters including their quarterback and this experienced unit will be going up against a highly suspect Kentucky defensive unit that lost seven starters from last year?s unit. The key is that Louisville has returned eight starters from last year?s unit and this well seasoned group of defenders will be able to dominate the LOS. Kentucky had the fourth worst scoring offense at 15.8 PPG in the FBS last season and their defense did not stop or even contain any of the SEC teams. I strongly believe Louisville gets out to a fast start using play action pass routes and getting isolated coverage situations on the perimeter of the Kentucky defense leading to big gains. Take Louisville.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kentucky +13 -105 over LOUISVILLE
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The Cardinals come in ranked 25th in the nation and the favorites to win the Big East. With those high expectations and predictions comes an inflated line and one we fully intend to take advantage of.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisville is solid on both sides of the ball but this is a team that prides itself on defense, ball control and that rarely blows out anyone. They bring back most of their starters from a year ago in which they went just 7-6. They split their last four home games, losing to both Marshall and Pittsburgh, while barely getting by Rutgers (16-14). QB Teddy Bridgewater, who earned the Big East Freshman of the Year award, returns after passing for 2,129 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, he did it against a soft schedule and he also threw 12 picks.
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Less than 80 miles separate these two schools so expect plenty of Wildcat support here. Kentucky is coming off another disappointing year but let’s not dismiss the fact that they play in a much tougher SEC conference that features the likes of Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arkansas and LSU. Against some of the top ranked defenses in the nation, they labored but they’ll find the going against this Big East opponent more to their liking. Kentucky returns all of its best skilled players.
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The Wildcats are sick of hearing about their poor defense. They have worked extensively over camp to get better and will come into this game with something to prove. The total for this game is 42. Louisville’s last nine home games have all resulted under the posted total. The Cardinals are a team that will continue to run the ball whether it’s working or not. Their style of play is not conducive to spotting big points and neither is this total. An outright upset would not surprise, making these points very appealing indeed.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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MILWAUKEE -1½ +145 over Pittsburgh
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Don’t look now but the Brewers are just 7½ games out of a wild-card spot and with Pittsburgh and Atlanta laboring, the Brewers are not out of this thing quite yet. Milwaukee is also playing its best ball of the year with 10 wins in 12 games while averaging 6.3 runs per game over that span. The Brew Crew have won 13 of their past 15 games at home and this one sets up as good or better than any of them.
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Since losing to Washington on July 26, Yovani Gallardo is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 42.2 frames. He’s pitched seven innings or more in all of those starts and Milwaukee has won each game. Gallardo is 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA in seven home starts against Pittsburgh and he struck out 14 Pirates on July 15. The guy is dealing it right now and it should come as no surprise, as he has always featured elite stuff.
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The Pirates went 11-17 in August and have dropped the first two games of this series. James McDonald was one of the first half's great stories with a 2.44 ERA. Things haven’t been nearly as good in the second half. McDonald has a 4.73 road ERA. Over his last 18 innings, he’s walked nine batters and recently went through a stretch in which he walked 19 batters in 20 innings. The Pirates have lost five of his past seven starts. Another sign of fatigue is McDonald’s increasing fly-ball rate and accompanying HR/FB rate. McDonald is a tired and non-confident pitcher right now and we're loving it.
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Minnesota +132 over KANSAS CITY
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It’s baseball. 162 games in which anything can happen but one thing that remains constant are that certain teams and pitchers are too risky to spot significant juice with. The Royals, with Luis Mendoza on the mound, falls into that category. Mendoza is 7-9 in 19 starts with an ERA of 4.51. At home, he’s 3-4 with a 5.05 ERA. In 130 frames his BB/K ratio is poor at 50/77 and his 1.43 WHIP is troublesome. He’s also allowed 136 hits in 129 frames for a BAA of .275. Do you really want to spot a price with that guy?
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Mendoza and the Royals are favored in this range because the Twins will send out relatively unknown Esmerling Vasquez. Vazquez is no stranger to the big leagues. He was with the D-Backs organization and appeared in 137 games, all in relief, from ‘09 to ’11. The Twins picked him up and after 57 innings of outstanding relief and converted him from reliever to starter. He pitched even better in the starting role, posting a 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA. In 52 innings as a starter, Vasquez allowed just 35 hits in 52 frames while whiffing 55. In his time with Arizona, he had a solid BAA of .247 and also had a good strikeout rate of 120 K’s in those 137 innings. Vazquez has swing and miss stuff.
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The Twinkies have won seven of eight games versus the Royals this season and come into this one after sweeping a DH yesterday. All the momentum and confidence is on the side of the pooch and the tag just sweetens the deal.

Jimmy BoydFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Pirates +150
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The Brewers have won the first two games of this series, but they shouldn't be this heavily favored against a Pittsburgh club with six more wins on the season.
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Yesterday's tough one run loss should only motivate the Pirates just as similar defeats have all season. Consider that Pittsburgh is a perfect 7-0 this season following a one-run defeat to a division rival. It has won these contests by an average score of 6.6 to 1.9.
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It is also worth noting that the Bucs are 20-7 in their last 27 in the third game of a series.
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Pittsburgh has been in good hands all season with James McDonald (12-6, 3.57 ERA) on the mound. The Pirates are 5-1 in his last 6 starts in the third game of a series and 7-3 in his last 10 starts as an underdog. Take the Pirates.

Dave PriceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies +106
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Phillies showing value at this price with Hamels on the hill. First off, the Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 games as an underdog and 6-0 in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record. Secondly, they are 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 starts, 10-4 in his last 14 road starts and 4-1 in his last 5 starts versus the Braves. The Braves are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a favorite and 0-4 in their last 4 home games. Bet Philly.

Jack JonesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago White Sox +155
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After losing the first two games of this series, the Chicago White Sox are obviously motivated to get Game 3 tonight. They lead the Detroit Tigers by just one game in the AL Central division race.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chris Sale has been one of the most underrated starters in the league in 2012. The left-hander is 15-5 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 24 starts this season. He'll be up against Justin Verlander, who gave up eight earned runs in 5 2/3 innings his last time out against Kansas City.
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The White Sox are 5-0 in Sale's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Chicago is 9-1 in Sale's last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet the White Sox Sunday.