Jeff AlexanderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals +151FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cards are showing value as a big dog Sunday considering they are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. Washington's Strasburg has a good WHIP (1.144), but the Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Cardinals are also 6-2 in Westbrook's last 8 starts. Bet St. Louis on the money line.
Joe GavazziFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Philadelphia PhilliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Shades of 2011. It was just 1 year ago when Atlanta began their meltdown in their quest for the World Championship. Included in that failure was 6 losses to these Phillies who have beaten them twice already this weekend that has deopped Atlanta’s recent record to 4-10. At the ASP Phillies line up return to health with Utley, Howard and Halladay. Their pride also kicked in resulting in a record of 27-18 (.600) and a recent mark of 7-2. Hamel’s has been solid all season with a record of 14-6 and 2.99 ERA. Hamel’s had his best month in August with a 1.86 ERA. In 9 appearances vs. Atlanta, Hamels has posted a 2.17 ERA. In the world of Perception/Reality, clearly we have a value play with this underdog.
Andre GomesFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Connecticut Sun @ Atlanta Dream
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Atlanta will have their star Angel McCoughtry back today after a team suspension, so the Dream will be in full force today. With Angel back and with the team focused, they are a top contender in the Eastern conference, therefore they should be clearly favored on this home contest against Connecticut, especially when A. Jones keeps being out due to injury.
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This is a good spot for Atlanta, while this will be the 3rd game of a road trip for Connecticut, with trips to Chicago and San Antonio in the first two games. The Sun is coming from a nice win in San Antonio, however they benefited from the Silver Stars' center Jayne Appel, who played just 8 minutes. Thanks to that, Tina Charles had a field day with 20 points and 10 rebounds.
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Connecticut is 2-0 against Atlanta this season, with two huge performances by Tina Charles with 23 points and 22 rebounds in one game and 22 points and 11 boards in the other one. However, this time, Atlanta has their center Erika de Souza back and she's more than capable of limiting Charles today with her hustle play. So, this game won't have nothing to do with the previous two games of this series, as Atlanta actually has a frontcourt edge on this matchup, with De Souza back and Jones out.
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I believe Atlanta will have a great game today, as they'll be fired up to get revenge over Connecticut, with their best player back in the lineup. This is a bad spot for Connecticut, so I believe the Dream will have a huge offensive game and get an easy win today. Therefore, I'll be taking Atlanta in here in a Double Dime Play! As I expect Atlanta to have a great offensive game, while Connecticut should also have decent offensive production, I came up with a totals projection of 161 points, high enough for me to take the Over in here as well in a Single Dime Play.
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Play: Connecticut / Atlanta Over 156.5
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Play: Atlanta Dream +1
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Los Angeles Sparks @ Chicago Sky
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This is a back to back game for Chicago and they managed to play a good first quarter against Indiana on the road last night, but this team is looking completely broken up right now. Not only Fowles has been mysteriously out of the game, but also when she's on the court, it looks like the team ignores her on the offensive end. Chicago keeps turning the ball over a lot of times, they show no chemistry and therefore, I don't believe they won't be able to be competitive today against a top team, like they couldn't be yesterday against the Fever.
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The Sparks are coming rested for this contest and they're coming from a humiliating loss at Tulsa that snapped a 9-game winning streak. This is definitely a bounce back game and with Fowles being questionable for today due to a leg injury, I believe the Sparks will take very well advantage of the frontcourt edge they'll have today. Chicago may have a couple of good shooters, but that won't compensate the edge the Sparks will have down low, especially when the Sky keeps turning the ball over loads of times.
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It seems clears to me that the Sparks are the much better team on this contest plus they'll be also in a much better spot for this game, therefore I expect an easy win for them today and so, I'll be taking the Sparks in here.
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Play: Los Angeles -6.5
Scott Delaney
My free pick for Sunday is on the Texas Rangers on the Run Line, against the Cleveland Indians. Shouldn't be an issue with the Rangers being on the road in this clash, as the two-time defending American League champs have a clear advantage with this pitching mismatch between Derek Holland and Zach McAllister. That's why I want you to be sure this is the pitching matchup on your ticket when making your wager, since all run-line bets auto-list the pitchers.
I love Holland today, as he rolls in with a 2-0 mark and 3.76 ERA over his last four starts. Additionally, he has made nine road starts this season, and has compiled a 4-2 mark and 4.29 ERA while ordering room service.
He should step to Progressive Field's mound with plenty of confidence in this game, or, against the Tribe I should say, as he's 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four career starts against the Indians, including a stifling 0.55 ERA in this stadium.
On the flipside, the Indians' McAllister saw his run of 15 straight starts with no more than four earned runs allowed come to an abrupt halt, as the surging Oakland Athletics tagged him for five runs on nine hits in 4-1/3 innings. And despite the impressive streak, the right-hander is 0-1 in his last three starts with a rather high 5.51 ERA.
One final note, as I go back to Holland, make note the Newark, Ohio-native reportedly expects to have about 50 people in attendance to watch him pitch today. Newark is a little more than two hours south of Cleveland, which might explain his stellar ERA at Progressive Field.
Look for another fine outing by Holland, as the Rangers roll to a blowout win.
2♦ TEXAS -1.5
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run is at 102-65-2, and today I look to improve on that number with the Over in the American League East clash between the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees, in the Bronx, at Yankee Stadium.
All based on the pitchers here, and their last performances when these two teams met on July 31 and Aug. 1. That's why it's imperative both Chris Tillman and Phil Hughes are on the ticket when the pitchers are auto-listed because this is a total.
The Orioles are suddenly putting pressure on the Yanks, after winning seven of their last last 10 games, and letting the Bronx Bombers know the lead they've held since June 12 is not necessarily safe as we enter the final month.
That being said, I think the O's have to get aggressive on offense, especially with this one taking place on 161st Street in the Bronx. Hughes is in after throwin seven innings in each of his past three starts, and allowing a combined three earned runs to go 2-1. However, career-wise against Baltimore, he has a 5.00 ERA. And, the over is on a 5-1 run when he's installed as the favorite.
With Baltimore's Tillman, I know he has posted a 3-1 record with a 3.73 ERA in August, but lifetime against the Yankees, he is 2-3 with an 8.42 ERA. The over is on a 6-2 run when he's tabbed as the road underdog, and 5-2 when he pitches against A.L. East foes.
1♦ Orioles/Yankees OVER
Craig Davis
70-47 free play run.
Sunday's free play is Louisville over Kentucky.
Many experts pick Louisville to win the Big East this season, and actually play for a BCS Bowl. Hard to imagine considering how bad they've been over the last decade or so, but HC Charlie Strong has this defense playing much better than anyone could imagine, combined with some of the top notch offensive recruits he's been able to bring in.
The Cards return 15 starters on both sides of the ball (combined) and are coming off of a fairly impressive 7-6 season. QB Teddy Bridgewater came out of nowhere to put together a very solid season, and he brings back a slew of wide receivers who could potentially play for most teams in the country.
The offensive line returns 4 of 5 from a unit that got better as the season went on. As long as they stay relatively healthy, this offensive line could be the best in the conference. Add to that the fact that RB Dominique Brown is expected to emerge as a major playmaker for the Cards offense, and you can see why people are excited about this team.
Defensively, Louisville returns three defensive linemen, two linebackers and three defensive backs, and I have to admit I never expected last year's defense to be as good as they were. MLB Preston Brown and S Hakeem Smith were in the top five on the team last year in total tackles... and they both return this year to help an improving unit.
As for Kentucky, well, let's just say that the name of their head coach should tell us a lot about this team.
All joking aside, "Joker Phillips" is on the hot seat after a 5-7 season a year ago. They have a tough SEC schedule and a team that lost half its offense and defense from a year ago.
Phillips named a new starting quarterback in Max Smith two weeks ago, hoping he can keep the job more than just a couple of weeks. Kentucky does at least return a strong offensive line, but they have no idea who the starting RB is going to be, long term, and the receivers are sketchy, at best.
This is the best chance for Louisville to exact some revenge and pound their rival... and I believe they'll get it done.
Free play of the day on Louisville by 20.
2♦ LOUISVILLE
Jeff Benton
Scored with both free plays yesterday, as West Virginia covered in college football and the Phillies-Braves game stayed Under the total in baseball.
Your Sunday freebie is to take the underdog Mustangs of SMU as they play at Baylor.
New era begins in Waco, as RGIII is now plying his trade in the NFL. All totaled, the Bears lost five players from last year's offense to the NFL draft, and that also includes all-time leading receiver Wright, and RB Terrance Ganaway who accounted for over 1,500 yards rushing last season! Some mighty big holes to fill if you ask me, and my thinking is this impost will be a little bit difficult for the Bears to cover.
SMU has a new quarterback as well, as former Texas QB Garrett Gilbert will take over the reins for a team that has been to three straight bowl games under June Jones, and does have some firepower in their arsenal - Zach Line and Darius Johnson to name a pair - that should be able to take advantage of Baylor's leaky defense that allowed 40-points per game last season.
2005 was the last time these former conference rivals played one another, and Baylor has won and covered each of the last nine series meetings that date all the way back to the late 1980's. The Mustangs prove game today as they stay inside of this roomy impost at Baylor.
1♦ SMU
Chris Jordan
As for your free winner, I'm playing the Los Angeles Dodgers and want you listing Chris Capuano and Arizona's Wade Miley.
Now I realize that Capuano's numbers have declined, but I can't ignore the potential he has to rebound in this final month, knowing how hot he was to start the season. The left-hander has gone an abysmal 2-7 with a 5.20 ERA in his last 10 starts, including an awful performance his last time out, when he allowed six runs in six innings. His ERA has gone up from 2.62 to 3.58 over those 10 starts.
So why take him against Arizona's Miley, who has pitched his way into the discussion of National League Rookie of the Year candidates?
These two met recently, back on July 31, and it was Miley coming into Los Angeles and stifling the Dodgers to three hits and one earned run over eight innings of work. He struck out seven and allowed one home run to earn the win. Cappy, on the other hand, was tagged for five earned runs on six hits in six frames - including two home runs. And I just think he owes it to his team, and will be out for revenge a day after the Dodgers got a much-needed win yesterday, to snap their eight-game skid.
It wasn't long ago the Dodgers were streaking and in first place of the National League West. Now, sitting 4-1/2 games back of the San Francisco Giants in the West and 1-1/2 games games back of the second NL Wild Card spot, this is a team playing with a sense of urgency. And Capuano has to pitch with the same mentality.
List both and take the Dodgers.
5♦ L.A. DODGERS
Matt Rivers
8-3 free play run for you entering Sunday's action.
Free play winner for Sunday is to look for the runs to continue to be hard to come by for the backsliding Yankees.
Take Baltimore and New York to conclude their series with an Under.
Both Friday and Saturday's meetings held Under the total, and with Chris Tillman and Phil Hughes mound-bound this afternoon, there is a strong chance this game will also hold Under.
The O's have played three in a row, and five of their last six Under the total, while the Yanks have now been Under in seven of their last nine contests.
Chris Tillman is 2-0 over his last three starts with an ERA of 2.95, and each of his last pair of starts and five of his last eight overall have ended up playing Under the total.
Phil Hughes has been lights-out at Yankee Stadium where he is 10-3 for the year with an ERA just a shade above three. Hughes is also 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA his last three starts this season.
Until I see some concrete evidence that the Yankees can put some runs on the board, I will have to look for the Under to be the play when the Pinstripers are on the diamond.
Baltimore-New York to go Under.
2♦ BALTIMORE-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Wunderdog
San Diego at Colorado
Pick: Colorado -115
Padres pitcher Casey Kelly was called up from Double-A San Antonio to make his major-league debut in Monday's series opener against the Braves. So this is the first road start for Kelly - and a tough park to pitch in. Coors Field has been good to Colorado, an offense ranked No. 6 in baseball in runs scored, No. 4 in batting average, No. 6 in on-base percentage and No. 3 in slugging. Good luck, kid! By contrast, San Diego has a terrible offense, No. 27 in runs scored and No. 21 in OBP. Colorado is playing well, on a 9-4 run as well as 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter. Lefty Jeff Francis goes for the Rockies and has a 3.00 ERA over his last three starts and has already beaten San Diego this season (1-0 in two starts). Francis had one of his better starts this season in Monday's series opener against the Dodgers. He worked five scoreless innings, giving up just three hits while striking out six in the 10-0 win, so grab the home field. Play the Rockies.
Harry Bondi
Louisville -13
This is simply a game that pits two programs going in opposite directions. Kentucky returns just 11 starters from last year's team that won only five games. Head coach Joker Phillips in on the Hot Seat and player morale is at an all-time low. On the opposite side of the spectrum is head coach Charlie Strong and his Louisville team that expects to contend for a conference title. The Cardinals have typically been the underdog in this heated rivalry, so when they have a chance to win decisively, they will do it, especially with recruiting bragging rights at stake. The key here will be the Louisville defense that gave up just 20 ppg last season. Louisville's defensive line dominated last season's meeting, recording 14 tackles for a loss and will do the same today against a young and inexperienced Kentucky offensive line that is breaking in three new starters.
SPORTS WAGERS
SEATTLE +156 over L.A. Angels
Significant overlay here due to the fact that Jered Weaver and his 16-3 record goes for the Angels. We’ve said it before and it’s worth repeating that W/L records are one of the most misleading stats in all of baseball. Weaver does not have the skills of a sub 3.00 ERA. As good a season as this has been, xERA (3.81) shows that it has actually represented some erosion of a skill set that peaked in 2010. Weaver has a fly-ball bias profile (41%/37% FB/GB) and his steep drop-off in terms of strikeouts is another red flag. His pinpoint control and deception are valuable for sure but his ERA has outpitched his xERA for two years now. His 7.94 ERA over his past three starts suggests it may finally be catching up to him.
Then there’s Hisashi Iwakuma and his 3.40 ERA that comes with full skills support. Iwakuma had a 5.13 ERA on July 15. Since then, he’s knocked almost two runs off that with his outstanding stuff. He has a 53% groundball rate and has not allowed a home run in three straight starts. At Safeco, Iwakuma is 3-2 with a 2.42 ERA. The M’s have won his last three starts and four of his past five. He’s striking out more (13 K’s against the Blue Jays on July 30), he’s walking less and has a BAA of .213 over his past six starts. Incidentally, current Angels hitters have seven hits in 34 AB’s (.206) against Iwakuma and Vernon Wells has three of those seven hits. Not often do we take back a price like this with a guy pitching this well.