Robert Ferringo
San Francisco / Pittsburgh Over 44.5
With this play I just have to wonder: what the hell is it going to take for the 49ers to go 'over' a total? Including the preseason and the postseason, the 49ers are now just 6-22 against the total over the last three seasons. But it is kind of inexplicable, as evidenced by Monday Night Football. The 49ers and Vikings combined for 650 total yards but just 23 points, blowing a ton of scoring opportunities along the way. This stuff simply can't continue. It was the same for the Steelers in their Thursday night game. There's no way that game should've stayed 'under', but it did thanks to missed field goals and opportunities. The Steelers are a little desperate here as they know they can't afford to fall to 0-2. Their defense still stinks, and they will once again lean on their powerful offense to lead the way. The 'over' is 7-2 in Pittsburgh's last nine games after a loss, and the 'over' is 9-3 in their last 12 home games.
Bill O'Brien
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns -1-125
While this line appears to be a mistake based on week 1 results, the odds makers know exactly what they are doing when it comes to the even level talent field that exist in the NFL. Yes Manziel had a quarterback ranking under 53 in the opener, but the Cleveland QB did not have much help from his offensive line who only produced 46 yards of rushing if you exclude the quarterback’s run production. The lack of running yards for the Browns created such a one dimensional offensive set, the Jets defense had a field day keeping pressure on McCown and Manziel. On the other hand the Titans starter Mariota had a career day against Tampa lighting up the scoreboard with 4 touchdowns on just 16 throwing attempts. As I stated in my opening line the Book Makers know what they are doing with opening the line establishing Cleveland as the favorite. While Tennessee had the convenience of Tampa mistakes in week 1, which eliminated pressure on the Titans Rookie starter. The reality here going into the 2nd week, is that the Browns will come in with a defensive game plan to put all of the pressure on Tennessee's starter, while crowding the box and eliminating the Titan's rushing attack. Against Cleveland in week 2 on the Road Mariota will be forced to throw the ball over 30 times instead of the compared 16 attempts in week one, which will lead to rookie mistake exposure in a hostile road environment.
Jimmy Adams
Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Miami Dolphins -6
The Miami Dolphins are a team on the rise as evidenced by their win on the road against the Washington Redskins last week. This is a team that was bet by the sharps all summer long. They continued to get money all the way up to nearly game time when we saw a small amount of buy back on Washington.
Ryan Tannehill looked sharp as expected, completing 64.7% of his pass attempts. He has some weapons around him in the forms of Jarvis Landry, Jordan Cameron, Rishard Mathews, among others. Lamar Miller looks like he’ll be able to be a productive #1 back for the Dolphins even though his stats weren’t exactly spectacular week 1. Defensively things went according to plan as the Redskins scored just 10 points. Jacksonville isn’t any better so I can’t see them having much success against this stop unit.
The Jags historically just don’t cover games. You can throw out any sort of home field advantage because they simply don’t have one. The Jaguars have the worst home crowd in the entire NFL. This team simply doesn’t have enough weapons to be able to compete. Blake Bortles continues to make bad decision after bad decision, putting his team in bad situations constantly. They have shown the ability to move the ball downfield at times. Even in those instances they either turn the ball over or settle for field goals. Not a recipe for success in the NFL.
Alex Smith
Arizona at Chicago
Play: Arizona -2
The Chicago Bears opened up the year with a tough 31-23 loss to Green Bay. Running back Matt Forte was solid with 141 rushing yards and a touchdown and while Chicago's defense has shown some improvement from last season's horrific campaign, there are still some glaring issues. The Bears allowed 6.1 yards per play with some terrible displays of missed tackling and poor reading of rushing routes against the Packers. Things won't be any easier this week with Arizona. The Cards pulled away from New Orleans with two late touchdowns to earn the 31-19 victory. Arizona's tough defense held a very good Saints offense to four field goals and only 54 yards on the ground. Offensively, the Cardinals averaged 7.5 yards per play and were a perfect 3-for-3 inside the red zone.
The Bears are going to have to diversify their offense and take more chances when nearing the red zone. They seemed too reliant on short passes and screens last game and while Arizona has two great secondary players in Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu, Chicago has solid receivers in Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Martellius Bennett who can go up and grab jump balls against anyone in this league.
Arizona has their own talented corps of wideouts, led by Larry Fitzgerald, that could have a field day against a below average Bears' secondary. While their offensive line has some issues, they shouldn't have too much of a hassle with Chicago's front seven, who failed to record a sack last weekend. With a pair of divisional battles with San Francisco and St. Louis on deck, this would be a big victory for the Cardinals to grab on the road. And with Chicago's inability to cover as a home underdog, going 1-7 against the number at Soldier Field dating back to the 2012 season, I'll lay the small chalk with the Cards.
Rob Veno
Houston at Carolina
Play: Under 40
The Texans were ambushed in the first half of their home opener by Kansas City last Sunday as the Chiefs scored on five consecutive possessions resulting in 27 points. In that mix were a pair of Houston turnovers (1 interception, 1 fumble) which set the Chiefs up in point blank range at the Texans’ 13- and 7-yard lines. Those turnovers cost Houston 14 points and in all, three of KC’s five scoring drives were 22 yards or less.
Houston’s second half performance was much cleaner on both sides of the ball as the offense did not commit a turnover and the defense pitched a shutout forcing four punts on Kansas City’s five possessions. The rally fell short but the Texans did get the once blowout to the point where Kansas City had to recover an onside kick to secure the 27-20 victory. Not really that bad for a game when you consider Houston’s average starting position was their own 19 while the Chiefs’ was their own 40.
Carolina’s defense also recorded a second half shutout last week as they held Jacksonville to 75 total yards, had four sacks, and picked off two passes --- one of which was returned for a TD by corner Josh Norman. That defensive surge turned the Panthers’ slim 10-9 halftime lead into and easy 20-9 win and pointspread cover. The defense also masked the deficiencies of the offense which could only muster 263 total yards, 3.9 yards per play, and 13 points.
The fundamental matchups here obviously give significant advantages to each defense. For Houston’s defense, this week is a step down in class as far as their opponent’s offensive explosiveness is concerned. Carolina is dependent upon establishing the run in order to create any semblance of a passing game but their unique rushing attack which features the read option gives the Texans an added dimension to defend.
Last week, Cam Newton was the Panthers’ second leading rusher with 14 carries for 35 yards. Houston can be vulnerable in the deep secondary and Carolina’s Ted Ginn averaged 27 yards per catch on his two receptions last week. Also note the strong game Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce had against Houston last week (6 catches, 106 yards, 2 TDs) simply because the Panthers’ best receiving threat is arguably TE Greg Olson.
On the other side, Houston’s ground game is average at best with RB Alfred Blue this season’s starter in place of injured star Arian Foster. Carolina’s run defense is a brick wall so don’t expect the Texans to find much room on the ground. Houston did some damage through the air against a solid KC secondary last week as Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett combined to go 26-of-47, for 334 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. There is a question as to who will start this game as Houston has a full-fledged QB controversy on their hands after Mallett’s relief performance against the Chiefs.
As of mid-week, we still don’t know the playing status of Panthers all-everything MLB Luke Kuechly who is still undergoing concussion protocol after exiting last week’s game. He’s an obvious difference maker so keep tabs on his availability. With or without Kuechly in the lineup, this game still shapes up as a defensive slugfest with the winner likely scoring no more than 20 points. With the total sitting at 40.5, we’ll make a play on the under.
Jesse Schule
Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans
Pick: New Orleans
It came as no surprise to me that the Buccaneers were blown out at home in a 42-14 loss to Tennessee in Week 1. Here is what I said prior to the game: "If Bucs fans were hoping Jameis Winston would save the day, they are about to be sadly disappointed. I've never been a fan of Famous Jameis, who I think has always been overrated. They say he only lost one game in his two year career at Florida State, and that would be a lot more impressive if he played in the SEC. The fact is most of those wins came against cupcakes, making his stats in 2014 even more concerning. Winston threw 18 picks last year, the most of any quarterback ranked in the top 40 in passing yards in the FBS."
I expect the rookie to continue to struggle on the road in a hostile environment in New Orleans. He may have his moments though, as the Saints defense struggled in a Week 1 loss to Arizona, and they ranked among the worst in the NFL against the pass last season.
The Buccaneers defense made a rookie quarterback on a poor team look like a Hall of Famer last week, and this week they will face a legitimate Hall of Famer in Drew Brees. The Saints star quarterback led the league in passing yards last season, and he threw for 355 yards and a TD with one INT against a very strong Arizona defense on the road in Week 1.
He should be able to shred up this terrible Tampa secondary, and we should see a blowout in the Big Easy.
Strike Point Sports
Tennessee +2
What did the Cleveland Browns do to prove that they should be favored in this game? Vegas knows that this is a light line, or they would have made the Browns the typical three-point favorite at home. Tennessee looked solid against a Tampa Bay team that should have been a bit better than they were in Week 1. I do not think that Mariota will throw for another four touchdowns, but he will play solid again versus a Browns defense that has a few holes. There was a lot of buzz around the Browns at the beginning of the season as far as a sleeper team, but they are still a few years away from that. The Titans are going to win this game outright and be a surprising 2-0 heading in to Week 3. The road team is the play here as they are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between the two teams. Even better is the fact that the Titans are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two squads in Cleveland. Take the points here, but they won't be necessary. Tennessee wins 27-20.
Indian Cowboy
Dallas / Philadelphia Under 55.5
The public fade in the NFL is real. Especially on totals. We like the fact the Eagles come off a loss to the Falcons and will be highly motivated and with the public likely to pound the over here on what they believe to be two highly competent offenses, we like the Under naturally. The Cowboys defense played poorly against the Giants, and we expect them to bounce-back here and with the Cowboys offense banged up, plus an Eagles defense that will be highly motivated look for these two division rivals to play the Under. Note, the Under is 6-2 for the Eagles when they face a team with a winning record, and the last three of four in this contest have gone under the posted total as well.
Sleepyj
Cincinnati -3
Let's go with last weeks premium winner here...Cincinnati looked very good last week...Most thought the Raiders might show up in that game...I doubted they would even compare to this Bengals team..For the record i will say i have the Bengals making it very deep into the playoffs and a shot a SB bid...I'm very high on this team this year...I believe they deserve it as well...I have a few strong connections with this team and the overall mood is very good...Strong believers right now with the Bengals..Before the season they had high hopes and the confidence was rather high..Bengals took care of business last week in Oakland..They had a 33-0 lead at one point and the Raiders looked lost...I do believe the Chargers are much better and won't self destruct here like the Raiders did last week...Begals have the weapons though..They are stacked on offense and can look at 6 or 7 different guys on the offensive side of the ball....I can say the same for maybe 4 or 5 other teams in the entire league....Chargers will make the long trip and they will be welcomed into the jungle here for sure...A west coast trip for the Chargers heading east is usually a bad thing for the Chargers....San Diego got it rolling last week, but most of it was pure momentum swings IMO..Two key turnovers for Detroit really helped the rally out for the Chargers..Rivers threw the ball for 404 yards..He won't do that this week..Running game for SD was limited and i think they might need to establish that this week...Chargers have another road game next week as well...Bengals got a road game in division @ Balt..Then KC and then Sea...So it's one game at a time here for the Bengals...They should be fine though IMO...This team is deep on both sides and they come into this game healthy..No serious injuries for either squad..Bengals come back home to open up the season and they bring the home crowd a 1-0 team off a blowout winner..This place will be rocking here today...Dalton looked very crisp and he used the entire play book and all his guys...That is huge for a guy like Dalton and this offense..They can roll on any team in the league...They let off the gas in the late 3rd qtr last week..They could have pitched a shutout and scored 45 pts if they wanted too..SD will need to grab turnovers and really get the Bengals off balance..I just dont see it here...Grab the 3 and lay the extra juice here...Cincy should roll by a few scores here..31-17 area IMO....I'm not sold on the Chargers O-Line this week..DJ Fluker is out and King Dunlap is a scary choice at LT...He will draw pressure for Atkins Johnson and the LB core....I don't see Rivers getting very comfortable in this game..The blitz is on..Bengals roar at home to open up the home schedule.
Tom Herbert
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills +2½
Lots of sharp action on this one on the Bills.The Bills are much better than everyone thinks and here's a fun fact: *Rex Ryan is 8-5-0 61.5% ATS against Bill Belichick. He is a perfect 3-0 (+10.83 whopping ppg) ATS seeking revenge for a previous season loss. Now Rex Ryan actually has some fire power; mainly with the Bills defense which has been good for a while now. They shut out Andrew Luck and the Colts for a whole half. They knocked down 11 passes and got 2 interceptions which is extremely impressive. This defense is exactly the sort to be able to stop Gronkowski which will probably be one of the biggest factors in this game. We've got the Bills to hold the Patriots to 17 points or less. That leaves things to Tyron Taylor which is a concern for me and a big reason they're home dogs. Big value here. Rex Ryan had a .500 coaching record with the Jets, but it always seemed like designing his defense specifically for the Patriots was his priority. The motivation is here in this one and that is possibly more than half the battle.
Freddy Wills
San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -5
We played the 49ers on the money line on Monday night, but this is a very difficult spot for the 49ers to come into on short rest, travel across the country playing a team 4 extra days of preparation. Not to mention the 49ers played late on Monday and will be playing this game at 10 AM their body clock time. Carlos Hyde was amazing on Monday night and I'm glad I had him in my draftkings selections, but this is about to be a completely different scenario for this team facing the Steelers on the road.
The Steelers are arguably the best offense in the NFL although they are still missing some pieces they still played well enough against the Patriots on the road, but unfortunately got a late start. Big Ben threw for 351 yards, and DeAngelo Williams ran for 127. They have a balanced offense even without Bell in their and I don't think the 49ers will be able to cover this spread for 4 quarters against a Steelers team that feels like this game is a must win.
Scott Rickenbach
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -10
Anytime you see a line up into double digits in the NFL it is wise to 'proceed with caution'. In this case, the line is not only justified, it may prove to be far too small. The Saints are fired up after their road loss at Arizona that was much closer than the final score would lead you to believe. New Orleans and the Cardinals were nearly equal in yardage. Unlike the Saints, the Buccaneers were nowhere close to being competitive last week as they got mauled by a 42 to 14 final score. Keep in mind that was against a Tennessee team that was 2-14 last year. Now the Bucs will have an added challenge as they go on the road and rookie QB Jameis Winston makes his first ever NFL road start in a very tough place to play. The Superdome will be jumping for the Saints home opener and the crowd noise as well as simply the nerves of a road opener (and also not having a good supporting cast around him) will all add up to this one getting ugly in a hurry for Winston. The last four meetings between these teams in New Orleans have seen the Saints outscore the Buccaneers by a combined 84 points! New Orleans is on a long-term 25-13 ATS run when they are off of a loss. They'll be fired up here and Winston will throw a few more ugly "picks" just like he did last week which will add to the blowout margin. The line is big but it's absolutely justified as this is a mismatch across the board.
Mike O'Connor
CINCINNATI (-3) 27 San Diego 20
The Chargers passing offense led the league in Week 1 as Philip Rivers passed for 388 yards at 8.8 yps as San Diego came back from an early 3-21 deficit to win 33-28. They’ll get a tougher test this week as they travel to Cincinnati to face a Bengals team that dominated the Raiders in Oakland in Week 1, jumping out to a 33-0 lead before allowing a couple of late scores. The Bengals generated 398 total yards at 6.3 yppl and held Oakland to just 238 yards at 4.0 yppl, as Cincinnati scored touchdowns on 4 of their 6 red zone opportunities while allowing the Raiders touchdowns on both of their trips inside the red zone after the contest had long been decided.
The Chargers won’t be able to run in this game (just 3.5 ypr last week ) against the Bengals front (allowed 55 rushing yards at 3.7 ypr last week in Oakland), especially if they are limited on their offensive line. It won’t help if one of their best run blockers, right guard D.J. Fluker, misses this game - as he may with an ankle injury.
San Diego won’t pass the ball as easily as they did last week facing a good Bengals secondary that was rated #11 in compensated defensive yards per pass in 2014 that held the Raiders to 183 passing yards at 4.1 yps last week. The Bengals qualify in a 676-505-41 rushing situation and my ratings favor the Bengals by 2.7 points. I’ll lean with Cincinnati to win and cover.
Arizona (-2) 24 CHICAGO 21
The Cardinals offense played well last week, generating 428 total yards at 7.6 yppl, running and passing the ball effectively. Their defense shut down the run well (allowed 54 rushing yards at 2.7 ypr) but were less effective defending the pass (allowed 354 passing yards at 7.1 yps), but they did enough to pull out the 31-19 home win against the Saints. They’ll travel to Chicago this week to take on a game Bears team that played the Packers tough last week before unravelling late. They outgained Green Bay 402 total yards at 5.7 yppl to 323 total yards at 6.3 yppl but a Jay Cutler interception sealed their fate.
The Bears ran the ball well, picking up 189 yards at 5.7 ypr but struggled defending both the run and the pass. That doesn’t bode well for their match-up this week with the Cardinals, who can defend the run and whose offense was productive in both the run and pass game last week.
There are situations going both ways in this game, with the Cardinals qualifying in a 676-505-41 rushing situation while the Bears benefit from a negative 143-226-6 let-down situation that plays against the Cardinals. My ratings favor Arizona by 1.8 points. This game is a toss up to me.
CLEVELAND (+1) 21 Tennessee 20
Marcus Mariota came through with a strong performance in his first career start last week on the road in Tampa, completing 13 of 16 passes for 185 yards and four touchdowns as the Titans jumped out to a 35-7 halftime lead and cruised to a 42-14 win. Tennessee also appears to have improved defensively this season and last week held the Bucs to 273 total yards at 4.3 yppl, shutting down the Tampa passing game and registering 4 sacks and 2 interceptions.
Facing a Cleveland team this week that was blown out by the Jets in Week 1, the Titans have an opportunity to continue their positive momentum. The Browns were both bad and unlucky last week, generating 313 total yards at 5.0 yppl but also fumbling four times and losing all four. Meanwhile, the Titans were 4 for 4 in the red zone and that is a rate that won’t continue.
As of Thursday morning, it’s not clear who’ll play quarterback for the Browns as Josh McCown remained in concussion protocol Wednesday, with the Browns preparing Johnny Manziel as the starter for this game. New backup quarterback Austin Davis will also get some first-team reps this week. My ratings favor the Browns by 4.5 points but Cleveland qualifies in a negative 253-356-19 statistical situation that plays against them. There may be a bit of an overreaction to the Titans convincing win last week and the Browns ugly loss so I’ll lean with the Browns as the home dog.
Tampa Bay (+10) 19 NEW ORLEANS 29
Drew Brees played well last week (354 yards at 7.1 yps) but the Saints couldn’t run the ball at all (54 yards rushing at 2.7 ypr) and their defense picked up where it left off last season (#30 ranking in compensated defensive yards per play in 2014). New Orleans allowed the Cardinals 428 total yards at 7.6 yppl with poor performances against both the run (124 yards at 5.0 ypr) and the pass (307 yards at 9.6 yps). The Saints can’t generate a pass rush and are shorthanded on the back end (safety Jarius Byrd and cornerback Keenan Allen didn’t practice on Wednesday while safety Raphael Bush Saints was placed on injured reserve with a torn pectoral this week).
Meanwhile, the Bucs were terrible last week against the Titans, trailing 35-7 at halftime before eventually losing 42-14. They allowed rookie Marcus Mariota, making his first career start, to complete 13 of 16 for 185 yards and four touchdowns while the Bucs offense could only generate 273 total yards at 4.3 yppl against a Titans defense that ranked #21 in compensated defensive yards per play last season.
My ratings favor the Saints by 9.6 points but no situations apply. This game looks like a toss-up to me.
BUFFALO (+1) 24 New England 20
The Patriots offense looked like they didn’t skip a beat from last season in their win against the Steelers last Thursday night, despite several rookies on the offensive line and without Brandon LaFell at receiver (on the on the reserve/PUP list and eligible to return in Week 8). They moved the ball effectively, particularly in the air, where Tom Brady connected for 283 passing yards at 8.3 yps and four touchdowns. Their defense, however, is a cause for concern, allowing the Steelers to move the ball effectively on the ground (134 yards at 5.4 ypr) and in the air (330 yards at 8.0 yps) and this week will face a Bills team that generated 346 total yards at 6.7 yppl last week, with new quarterback Tyrod Taylor offering a dual threat speed element to the Buffalo passing attack that has added another dimension to this offense.
I don’t like the match-ups for the Patriots at all in this game with major concerns about playing three rookies along the offensive line at the center and guard spots that will be tasked with blocking outstanding defensive tackles Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams. Rex Ryan will no doubt attack the protections of the Patriots and test their ability to handle various defensive alignments and blitzes. I also don’t like a Patriots defense that couldn’t stop the run or the pass last week to be able to deal with the speed of the Bills offense and Greg Roman’s ground-and-pound, multiple-package attack run sets.
The Bills and the home crowd will be fired up for this one. My ratings favor the Bills by a ½ point and Buffalo benefits from a negative 143-226-6 let-down situation that plays against the Patriots. Buffalo also qualifies in a 676-505-41 rushing situation. I’ll lean with the Bills.
WASHINGTON (+3.5) 19 St. Louis 20
St. Louis beat defending AFC Champion Seattle with an impressive opening day 34-31 overtime win, outgaining the Seahawks 352 total yards at 6.4 yppl to 344 yards at just 4.4 yppl for Seattle, despite being -2 in net turnovers including an unlucky 3 lost offensive fumbles. New Rams quarterback Nick Foles played well, passing for 276 yards at 9.5 yps, but the Rams couldn’t produce much on the ground with just 76 yards at 2.9 ypr. That may improve this week with what looks like the return of running back Tre Mason and the possibility of rookie Todd Gurley getting some action as well. This week they may be in for a bit of a let-down as after knocking off their division foes they travel to play a Redskin team that may be a bit undervalued.
Washington lost last week to the Dolphins despite outgaining Miami 350 total yards at 5.1 yppl to 257 yards at 4.8 yppl due to a -1 net turnover margin and a punt return touchdown allowed. What’s encouraging is that they have improved in the trenches – Washington piled up 162 rushing yards at 4.5 ypr against a stout Miami front, and allowed just 75 rushing yards on defense. Kirk Cousins has been a turnover machine unfortunately with a high 4.8% career interception rate and a negative touchdown to interception ratio (19 touchdowns to 21 interceptions) and will face a strong Rams pass rushing team in this game that could lead to additional errors.
My ratings only favor the Rams by .4 points in this game but a negative 253-356-19 statistical match-up situation applies to the Redskins that plays against them in this spot. I do like the spot for Washington, however, and I’ll lean slightly with the Redskins plus the points.
Houston (+3) 19 CAROLINA 20
The Texans were thoroughly outplayed last week at home against the Chiefs but I expect them to bounce back this week against a Carolina team that may be a bit overrated based on their win last week against a poor Jacksonville team. Carolina won 20-9 but were even in the stats (265 total yards for each team – Carolina averaged 4.0 yppl while the Jaguars averaged 4.1 yppl) and were only leading 10-9 before Josh Norman stepped in front of a Blake Bortles pass and returned it for a touchdown to take a 17-9 lead in the third quarter. Without the presence of a true receiving threat on the perimeter, the Panther passing offense will struggle in this game against a good Texans secondary and when they run the ball, they’ll be facing my #10 rated team in compensated rush defense in 2014 that should be even better this season (allowed the Chiefs just 3.4 ypr last week).
The Texans may be making a quarterback switch to Ryan Mallett after an abysmal performance by Brian Hoyer (two turnovers inside his own 15 yard line which led directly to 14 Kansas City points). That change should be a slight improvement (Hoyer ranked 27th in Total QBR last season and is 31st after Week 1 this season) and just average quarterback play will keep the Texans competitive behind a good ground game and a strong defense.
Linebacker Luke Kuechly (concussion) didn’t practice on Wednesday and his status for this game is in doubt but defensive tackle Star Lotulelei was back on the practice field after missing a month with a foot injury and could return. I don’t have any situations in play and my ratings favor the Panthers by 2.9 points. I’ll lean slightly to the Texans plus the points.
San Francisco (+6) 23 PITTSBURGH 26
San Francisco looked far better than I anticipated last week in their convincing 20-3 home win against the Vikings on Monday night but they were playing with a chip on their shoulder after being counted out by everyone from the analysts to the media. They dominated the game, generating 397 total yards at 6.2 yppl to just 221 yards at 4.2 yppl for the Vikings and really asserted themselves on the ground, rushing for 232 yards at 6.3 ypr. I expect that they’ll have room to run this week against a Steelers defense that had trouble defending the run last season (#22 compensated defensive yards per rush ranking). However, the Steelers are most vulnerable in the air with a bad secondary that allowed Tom Brady to pass for 281 yards at 8.3 yps and four touchdowns. While Colin Kaepernick isn’t Tom Brady, he played well last week in Geep Chryst’s new simplified offense and should have success here as well.
Still missing three key pieces on offense (running back Le’Veon Bell, wide receiver Martavis Bryant and center Maurkice Pouncey) the Steelers offense is not at full strength but they played well last week despite those missing players (464 total yards at 7.0 yps) and I expect that they’ll continue to move the ball well in this game also despite San Francisco’s impressive effort last week.
The 49ers benefit from a negative 253-356-19 statistical match-up situation that plays against the Steelers while my ratings only favor Pittsburgh by 4.6 points. I’ll lean with the 49ers plus the points.
Atlanta (+2.5) 28 NY GIANTS 26
Atlanta had a huge first half last week against the Eagles, jumping out to a 20-3 halftime lead before Philly took over in the second half and eventually took the lead briefly before ultimately falling 26-24. Net stats were nearly identical (399 yards at 5.9 yppl for the Eagles to 398 yards at 5.9 yppl for the Falcons with each team turning the ball over twice). The Falcons were, however, just 1 for 3 in the red zone while the Eagles went 3 for 4 so Philly may have been a bit lucky in this game as well.
Meanwhile, the Giants were very lucky to be in control of their game against the Cowboys late, before falling 26-27. New York was outgained by a huge margin (267 yards at 4.5 yppl to 437 yards at 6.5 yppl for Dallas) but were +3 in net turnovers, including a fumble return for a touchdown. Unless that sort of luck continues, the Giants will be in trouble in this game.
The Falcons should be able to pass the ball well here against a poor New York secondary in a match-up that can be exploited and as a result I like the Falcons in this game. In addition, the Giants qualify in a number of negative statistical match-up situations that play against them that are 253-356-19 and 47-111-3 with 8-32-1 and 3-17 subsets. New York also qualifies in separate general 90-152-5 situation. My numbers favor New York by 1.7 points but the situations aren’t highly rated so it’s going to be a pass for me with a lean to the Falcons.
JACKSONVILLE (+6) 19 Miami 22
The Dolphins were lucky to escape last weeks’ game in Washington with a win as they were outplayed from the line of scrimmage - Miami generated just 257 total yards of offense at 4.8 yppl while the Redskins gained 350 yards at 5.1 yppl, but Miami was fortunate to get a special teams/punt return for a touchdown and were +1 in turnover margin.
Meanwhile, things were just the opposite for the Jaguars in their game as they were equal from the line of scrimmage (265 yards at 4.1 yppl to 265 yards at 4.0 yppl for the Panthers) but had a Blake Bortles interception taken back for a touchdown to put the Panthers up 17-9 in what was a 10-9 game. The Jaguars also performed poorly on third down, converting just 3 of their 12 attempts and that’s a rate that won’t continue. The Jags were also -2 in net turnovers and scored just one touchdown on three red zone possessions while dropping four passes and allowing four sacks. They have no choice but to improve off of a performance like that.
My ratings favor the Dolphins by 4.6 points and there are no situations that apply to this game. Based on the modest line value and the possible regression towards the mean in the stats that contain some luck, it’s a lean to the Jaguars plus the points in this one.
Baltimore (-6) 24 OAKLAND 18
The Ravens offense will look to bounce back this week after being effectively shut down in Week 1 against the Broncos. Baltimore could only muster 173 total yards at 3.0 yppl with a dormant passing attack that generated just 100 yards at 2.9 yps. That should change this week facing a Raiders defensive squad that allowed the Bengals to move the ball with relative ease last week – giving up 398 yards at 6.3 yppl and 33 points. Oakland had trouble defending both the run and the pass, and received no support from an offense that was nearly as bad. Quarterback Derek Carr was not good before being knocked out of last weeks’ game (7-of-12 for 61 yards before leaving the game in the second quarter) but it appears that he’ll be back for this game.
Defensively, the Ravens will take a hit, losing linebacker Terrell Suggs for the year last week with a torn Achilles. This, of course is on top of losing Pernell McPhee to the Chicago Bears in free agency in the off-season. Suggs and McPhee combined for 19.5 of the Ravens' 49 sacks last season, accounting for nearly 40 percent of their pass-rushing production. They’ll need stronger efforts from Elvis Dumervil and Courtney Upshaw but Upshaw hasn't had a full sack in 28 regular-season games. Fortunately, their challenge this week is against a Raiders team that finished last season #30 in compensated yards per play and look to have picked up where they left off last season.
My ratings favor the Ravens by 5.6 points and no situations apply to this game. Looks like a toss-up to me.
Dallas (+5) 27 PHILADELPHIA 28
Philadelphia played about an even a game as you will see, getting dominated in one half and completely controlling the other on Monday night in their 24-26 loss in Atlanta. The Eagles produced 398 total yards at 5.9 yppl while allowing Atlanta a nearly identical 398 yards at 5.9 yppl. After trailing 20-3 at halftime, the Eagles passing offense really got going in the second half and looked virtually unstoppable once they got into their groove. However, one of their strengths last season, their rush game, was below average with DeMarco Murray gaining only 9 yards on 8 carries and the Eagles generating just 63 total rushing yards at 3.9 ypr.
Despite missing top cornerback Orlando Scandrick, who was lost in the pre-season, the Cowboys held the potent passing offense of the Giants to 168 passing yards at 4.7 yps in the Cowboys 27-26 win. Dallas really dominated the action from the line of scrimmage, posting a 437 total yards at 6.5 yppl to the Giants 267 total yards at 4.5 yppl and won despite being -3 in net turnovers.
While the Dallas pass defense played better than expected, the Eagles revamped secondary was beaten repeatedly by Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing offense on Monday night. The Eagles allowed 290 passing yards at 8.3 yps and that match-up does not bode well facing Tony Romo (36 of 45 for 356 yards last week). However - Romo won’t have his primary target, receiver Dez Bryant, who is out with a broken foot.
My ratings only favor the Eagles by 3.4 points and the Cowboys benefit from a negative 253-356-19 statistical match-up indicator that plays against Philly in this one. I’ll lean with the Cowboys plus the points.
GREEN BAY (-3.5) 27 Seattle 22
Seattle was outplayed last week in St. Louis, losing a close divisional game in overtime and now travel to Green Bay to face a very good Packers team that will look to avenge their improbable Championship Game loss last season. This is a tough spot for the Seahawks and if they don’t play better than they did last week, they could find themselves 0-2.
Missing safety Kam Chancellor, the Seahawks pass defense isn’t the same and an average Rams passing offense produced 276 yards at 9.5 yps last week against them. Chancellor won’t be in the line-up for this game either against one of the best passing offenses in football and that could spell trouble. The other problem is the Seattle offensive line, which was abused by the Rams defensive unit last week to the tune of six Russell Wilson sacks. Fortunately for the Seahawks, the Green Bay defensive line is not close to the one they faced in St. Louis and is still missing suspended defensive end Letroy Guion. The Bears carved up the Packers defensive line on the ground last week, rushing for 189 yards at 5.7 ypr and that match-up plays into the strength of the Seattle offense. I expect to see a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch in this game.
My ratings favor the Packers by 4.3 points but there are situations going both ways in this one. The Seahawks qualify in a general 488-390-25 situation while Green Bay qualifies in a 76-41-4 Sunday/Monday night statistical match-up situation. This one is a toss-up.
King Creole
Bucs / Saints Under 47.5
We'll be Going LOW in one of Sunday's divisional matchups, as two teams who lost last week duke it out in the Big Easy. The fact that both teams lost in Week One actually plays a BIG part in our call on a lower-than-anticipated final score. Combine those results with the divisional aspect of this game, and we start out with: 0-12 O/U since 1986: All GAME TWO division home favorites with an OU line of 41 > points when BOTH teams (Saints / Bucs) are off a SUATS Week One loss.
At last look, the host Saints are the BIGGEST favorite on the Week Two schedule (-10 to -10.5 pts). That's another good sign for a low-scoring game.... 0-9 O/U since 2008: All GAME TWO big home favorites of 8 or more points (Saints).
Our final query in relation to Game Two's has to do with the revenge angle for the visiting Bucs (New Orleans won 23-20 in the last game of the season LY)... 2-12 O/U since 2003 / 0-5 O/U last 3 years: All GAME TWO division road teams playing with REVENGE (Bucs) when the OU line is > 43 points.
We are well aware that Tampa Bay allowed a whopping 42 points to the Tennessee Titans last week. Don't let that scare you off.That's because: In the last four seasons, all DIVISIONAL teams who allowed 42 > points at HOME in their previous game (Bucs) have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in their next game.
The final score in Tampa's ugly Week One loss to Tennessee was 42 to 14.... LAST Season, NFL teams off a SU home loss of 28 > points (Bucs) went a PERFECT 0-7 O/U in their next game... with an average of only 36.0 combined points per game.
So Tampa allowed 42 points last week and New Orleans allowed 31 points. Based on those results, an Over / Under novice might want to go OVER in the next game. But we are all OU 'Pros'... not 'Joes'! And besides, since 2000, NFL home favs of > 3 points have gone 4-18-1 O/U when both teams (Saints + Bucs) allowed 31 > points last game and the OU line is < 50 points. Last season, these games went a perfect 0-4 O/U with an average of only 26.3 combined points per game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +3 over CAROLINA
Houston was heavily faded last week and practically pulled a no show in their game against Kansas City. The Texans performance looks even worse now after the Chiefs played a sloppy game against Denver on Thursday night. Many folks had the Chiefs all over the place last week against Houston (parlays, teasers and straight up) and we can assure you that all those people are not anxious to back a Texans team that looked so poor in their season opener. Making the Texans even less appealing is that they have already switched QB’s. Nobody really wants to speculate whether Ryan Mallett’s garbage time stats last week will translate into production this week. Those who watched HBO's Hard Knocks will remember that head coach Bill O'Brien said Brian Hoyer's leash as the starter would not be short, so perhaps this quick hook is more a vote of confidence in Mallett than it is a criticism of Hoyer. If the coach likes Mallett more, so do we; at least for this week.
Carolina’s win over Jacksonville really doesn’t tell us anything, as Cam Newton’s 71.3 passer rating was good enough to get the job done but hardly impressive. What’s more, that was the least watched game of the weekend so the market may be giving Carolina a little too much credit here. In other words, Carolina won 20-9 but not many witnessed how bad they were. Carolina had a nine minute edge in time of possession against the Jags but actually was outgained in the contest by two yards. The Panthers also had a 3-1 edge in turnovers. Breaking it down, Carolina’s performance against Jacksonville was worse than Houston’s performance against Kansas City. At least the Texans had a pretty good second half and there’s a good chance of them building on that. It’s worth noting that Newton’s passing stats have remained underwhelming for the past few years. He only threw 18 touchdowns last season. He barely throws for over 200 yards a game (he threw for 158 last week). His passer rating refuses to climb out of the 80s. We’re not prepared to spot points with the Panthers just yet. They are going to have to show us a lot more than a weak win against a bad team to warrant doing so. The Panthers come in overpriced while the market prefers to stay away from the Texans. That’s usually a good time to step in.
Detroit +111 over MINNESOTA
The best part of Minnesota’s 20-3 loss to the 49ers on Monday night was that not many saw it. We did. We saw Teddy Bridge “Over Troubled” Water throw one wobbly pass after another and miss his targets by 10 feet. The greatest weakness of Minnesota’s franchise quarterback is his ability to throw a football. That’s kind of an important part of the job. Time stops when that ball is in the air. Between Adrian Peterson’s shit fits, Bridgewater’s inability to throw a football and Mike Wallace and Norv Turner being in charge, we have no idea what is so appealing about this group. Every year it’s supposed to be the turning point for this franchise but it never happens. They were supposed to go into San Fran and dismantle that rebuilding block. They didn’t. In fact, the Vikes were fortunate they didn’t lose by 34 instead of 17. Look, we don’t like to put a lot of weight on one game or one loss but A.P. had a mere 31 yards on 10 carries. Bridgewater had an average day against an average defense and Minnesota’s defense was getting torched on the ground. Operating behind a banged-up offensive line without center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt, Bridgewater was sacked five times and posted a 19.3 passer rating against the blitz. The Vikes figure to be a bit better at home but we can’t get on board with laying points with this team right now. We don’t like Bridgewater, we don’t like A.P., we don’t like their coaches and we don’t like their defense.
We played the Lions last week in San Diego and it looked like a pretty good bet early on. The problem is that the game was four quarters. Still, Detroit built a 21-3 lead and moved very effectively on many drives. Furthermore, the Chargers are a well-coached, difficult team to play against in San Diego and Detroit was in a position to win it. The Lions are getting about the same amount of points here as they were in San Diego and that’s a bit out of whack. Detroit’s Ameer Abdullah continued to dazzle after a sensational preseason and led the league with 199 all-purpose yards in Week 1. The Lions aren’t much different than the Vikes in terms of disappointing every season but we’re confident that they have the much better overall talent here. We've noted our pessimism about Minnesota and Teddy Bridgewater in this space several times during the last 17 games and our early observations haven't changed much. The Vikes are not an outfit we want to back in competitively priced games against good teams. Detroit is actually a good team. Keep the points. Lions outright.